CN115310274A - Multi-region multi-slope comprehensive linkage integrated monitoring and early warning method - Google Patents

Multi-region multi-slope comprehensive linkage integrated monitoring and early warning method Download PDF

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CN115310274A
CN115310274A CN202210865526.0A CN202210865526A CN115310274A CN 115310274 A CN115310274 A CN 115310274A CN 202210865526 A CN202210865526 A CN 202210865526A CN 115310274 A CN115310274 A CN 115310274A
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蒋水华
王应宏
周创兵
黄劲松
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Abstract

The invention provides a multi-region multi-slope comprehensive linkage integrated monitoring and early warning method, which comprises the steps of firstly, taking measured data and topographic data acquired by an unmanned aerial vehicle as a basis, carrying out stability analysis on a slope under a natural working condition to obtain a slope slippery area, then, carrying out reliability analysis by considering parameter variability, and calculating the probability of landslide; setting the position of monitoring equipment and the transmission frequency of monitoring data according to the slippery area and the landslide probability; secondly, performing second reliability analysis based on data obtained by the landslide monitoring equipment to obtain new landslide probability, and comprehensively determining the landslide early warning level by combining the crack condition; thus, corresponding refuge measures are made. The system method can effectively utilize monitoring data, determines the grade of the landslide by adopting the comprehensive index failure probability and the crack condition, is more suitable for the actual condition compared with the traditional multi-threshold-value maximum-selection monitoring and early-warning method, can simultaneously monitor and early-warning on line and link a plurality of slopes in multiple areas, and has high monitoring efficiency.

Description

Multi-region multi-slope comprehensive linkage integrated monitoring and early warning method
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of landslide monitoring and early warning, in particular to a multi-region multi-slope comprehensive linkage integrated monitoring and early warning method.
Background
Geological disasters are from catastrophic damage to geological environments caused by natural and artificial geological effects, and mainly comprise collapse, landslide, debris flow, ground collapse, ground cracks and the like. The landslide hazard is the most, china is a mountainous country, the area of a hilly region accounts for about one third of the area of land in China, natural disasters are frequent, landslide on the mountain has the characteristics of strong burst property and high destructiveness, frequent landslide hazards seriously threaten the life and property safety of residents in corresponding regions and the normal operation of roads, and the main reason for causing the losses is that the existing landslide hidden danger disasters lack precaution consciousness and an accurate monitoring and early warning system cannot be established. Therefore, a scientific landslide monitoring and early warning system is designed, landslide geological disasters are better monitored and early warned, and emergency evacuation is carried out before the disasters occur, so that casualties and property loss can be avoided, and huge social benefits are obtained.
With the development of science and technology, the existing landslide monitoring methods and means at home and abroad are many. For example, the close shot photogrammetry method has low monitoring precision and is easily influenced by factors such as weather; the GPS monitoring method is not influenced by weather, but has high cost under the requirement of high-precision monitoring, is not suitable for large-area popularization and application, and satellite signals are easily influenced. Although the method realizes monitoring and early warning of landslide to different degrees, the method is still limited by factors such as high cost of monitoring equipment, high maintenance cost, inconvenient operation and the like. In addition, most of the existing landslide early warning methods adopt a single index to carry out early warning, the problem that the parameters of a soil body have variability is not considered, so that an error exists between the landslide and the actual situation, and the landslide in the same area and the landslide in different areas cannot be uniformly monitored and early warned at the same time, so that redundant resource waste is caused, and therefore a multi-area multi-side-slope monitoring and early warning system method is urgently needed.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the problems, the invention aims to provide a multi-region multi-slope comprehensive linkage integrated monitoring and early warning method. The system method can monitor and early warn a plurality of side slopes in a plurality of areas in linkage at the same time, a reliability analysis method is adopted to obtain the failure probability of the comprehensive evaluation index of the stability of the side slopes, the side slopes are graded according to the failure probability, monitoring points and data transmission frequency are reasonably set according to the grading, and the system is combined with an unmanned aerial vehicle high-frequency rapid networking remote sensing monitoring network system, so that the monitoring efficiency is greatly improved, and the investment of monitoring equipment is greatly reduced.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention provides the following technical scheme.
A multi-region multi-slope comprehensive linkage integrated monitoring and early warning method comprises the following steps:
s1, rapidly acquiring multi-region multi-slope terrain data by adopting an unmanned aerial vehicle according to multi-region multi-slope early-stage actual measurement data, respectively performing stability analysis on the multi-region multi-slope under natural working conditions according to the acquired data information to obtain each landslide easy-to-slide region, further performing first-time reliability analysis by considering parameter variability, calculating slope failure probability, and grading the slopes according to the failure probability;
s2, the slopes are classified and numbered according to the areas to which the slopes belong, monitoring data transmission frequency is reasonably set according to the classification levels of the slopes in the S1, and the monitoring data are stored in a system database;
s3, according to the position and the size of the easy-sliding area, mounting monitoring equipment at a certain position below the easy-sliding area, enabling the monitoring range of the monitoring equipment to basically cover the whole easy-sliding area, and connecting the monitoring data to a data acquisition box through a data cable;
s4, according to the monitoring data transmission frequency set in the S2, regularly transmitting the monitoring data in the data acquisition box to a system database, and when the monitoring data of the monitoring area changes, transmitting real-time data to the system database;
s5, after receiving data, the system database extracts data information of the pretreatment module according to the slope classification serial number, simultaneously performs second reliability analysis by combining real-time monitoring data, determines the crack condition according to shot high-definition picture data, and comprehensively issues a landslide early warning level;
and S6, timely determining a possible disaster area according to the early warning level issued in the S5, and making emergency refuge measures for nearby villages and roads.
Specifically, in the S1, the saturated permeability coefficient and the shear strength parameter statistical characteristics (including mean value, standard deviation and probability distribution) of the slope rock-soil mass and basic data such as unit weight U and the like are measured in the early stage, and an unmanned aerial vehicle high-frequency rapid networking remote sensing monitoring network system is combined to realize large-area rapid shape data acquisition, then the reliability analysis is carried out according to the slope measured data and the terrain data modeling, and the grade is divided according to the failure probability, wherein the detailed conditions are shown in the following table 1;
furthermore, in S2, the monitored landslide is stored in a system database according to grade classification numbers, and the transmission frequency of the monitoring data under the normal condition and the rainfall condition of the landslide is set according to collapse, landslide and debris flow monitoring specifications DZ/T0221-2006 and engineering measurement specifications GB50026, wherein the details are shown in Table 1. The landslide rainfall monitoring and the earthquake monitoring in the same area can share one set of monitoring equipment.
Table 1 table of results of dividing various data of slope
Figure RE-GDA0003860157050000031
Specifically, in the step S3, the monitoring data is connected to the data acquisition box through the data cable, and the monitoring device adopts a solar energy and storage battery dual power supply design, so that the monitoring effect is more stable;
further, the monitoring data and the used monitoring equipment in the technical scheme are as follows:
monitoring and recording the rainfall of the slope region in real time by adopting a tipping bucket type rain gauge;
adopting a vibration meter vibration analyzer to transmit the vibration condition of the slope area in real time according to the earthquake grade of the slope area;
and (3) under the condition of cracks, photographing the easily-sliding area obtained by analyzing the stability through the high-definition camera, and reducing the photographing area and improving the picture definition in the step.
Specifically, in S4, rainfall monitoring data and shot high-definition picture data are transmitted to a data acquisition box through a data cable, are transmitted to a system database at fixed time according to data transmission frequency, and are transmitted in real time when earthquake monitoring data change.
Specifically, after the system database in S5 receives the data, the measured data and the modeling model in the earlier stage of landslide are immediately extracted according to the serial numbers, reliability analysis is performed according to the received rainfall and earthquake monitoring data, at this time, reliability analysis needs to perform seepage analysis on the side slope by using soil-water characteristic curves proposed by Fredlund and Xing (1994) on the received rainfall data, then the safety coefficient of the side slope is calculated, finally, the landslide failure probability after the rainfall data is received is calculated by using a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) method, high-definition picture data before and after transmission is compared, the crack condition is determined, the detailed condition is shown in table 1, and the early warning level which is finally issued is the higher one of the failure probability and the crack condition early warning level.
Specifically, in S6, the possible disaster area is determined in time according to the early warning level issued in S5, and emergency refuge measures for nearby villages and roads are made, and the specific method is as follows:
determining a dangerous area when landslide occurs according to the possible disaster area, then calculating the maximum horizontal distance which can slide when landslide occurs in the dangerous area in advance, and taking corresponding emergency risk avoidance measures for villages and roads in the landslide disaster spread range in time to reduce life and property loss;
calculating the horizontal sliding distance of the landslide according to the correlation relations among the horizontal sliding distance of the landslide, the volume of the landslide, the height difference of the front edge and the rear edge of the landslide and the slope angle of the original side slope by estimating the volume of a landslide body, wherein the specific relation is as follows:
logL r ＝0.0785logV+1.2347log(H/tanθ) (2)
in the above formula: l is r Horizontal displacement for landslide; v is the landslide volume; h is the height difference of the front edge and the rear edge of the landslide; theta is the original slope angle of the side slope.
The invention has the beneficial effects that:
compared with the prior art, the system can simultaneously carry out on-line monitoring and early warning on the multi-region multi-side slope, adopts the failure probability of the comprehensive index of the slope as an early warning index, and combines the crack condition, so that the early warning result is more accurate, the development of the prior art is effectively utilized, and the landslide monitoring and early warning can be more scientifically carried out.
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FIG. 1 is a schematic flow diagram of a multi-region multi-slope comprehensive linkage integrated monitoring and early warning method according to the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a position diagram of a multi-region multi-slope in a county in Jiangxi according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 shows the side slope I of FIG. 2 4 A sectional view;
FIG. 4 shows the side slope I of FIG. 2 4 A plan view and a monitoring device installation position view;
FIG. 5 shows the side slope I of FIG. 2 4 A primary stability analysis calculation result graph in the reliability analysis of the pretreatment module;
FIG. 6 shows the side slope I of FIG. 2 4 And analyzing a calculation result graph stably for one time in the reliability analysis of the early warning module.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent, the present invention is described in further detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the embodiments described herein are illustrative only and are not limiting, and that any modifications, equivalents, improvements, etc. made within the spirit and principle of the present invention are intended to be included within the scope of the present invention.
Example (b): see fig. 1-6.
The invention provides a multi-region multi-slope comprehensive linkage integrated monitoring and early warning method, as shown in figure 1, a monitoring and early warning system comprises a slope pretreatment module, a monitoring module, an early warning module and a linkage module, wherein the monitoring module comprises rainfall monitoring, earthquake monitoring and displacement monitoring; specifically, the method comprises the following steps:
the pretreatment module comprises:
(1) Respectively modeling, classifying and numbering according to multi-region multi-slope actual measurement data and topographic data;
(2) And carrying out stability analysis on the slope according to the slope modeling and the measured data to obtain the slippery area. Further considering the variability of soil body parameters to carry out reliability analysis to obtain the probability of slope failure;
(3) The grade is divided based on the failure probability, the grade is stored to a system database according to the slope classification serial number, and the position of the monitoring equipment and the transmission frequency of the monitoring data are reasonably set according to the grade of slope division, so that the monitoring efficiency is improved, and the monitoring investment is reduced.
The monitoring module includes:
monitoring rainfall, namely monitoring and recording the rainfall of a side slope region in real time by adopting a tipping bucket type rain gauge;
monitoring the earthquake, namely monitoring and recording the earthquake grade in real time by adopting a vibration analyzer of a vibration meter;
crack monitoring shoots the region of easily sliding through high definition digtal camera, realizes high-efficient accurate monitoring, according to slope data transmission frequency, regularly transmits the photo data.
The early warning module includes:
and transmitting the slope monitoring data to a system database, calling the basic slope data according to the classification numbers, carrying out secondary reliability analysis according to the monitoring data, calculating to obtain new failure probability of the slope, analyzing the crack condition according to the high-definition pictures transmitted to the system database by the system, and comprehensively issuing the early warning grade.
The linkage module includes:
firstly, estimating the volume of a landslide body, and then calculating the horizontal sliding distance of the landslide according to a correlation relation between the horizontal sliding distance of the landslide and the volume of the landslide, the height difference of the front edge and the rear edge of the landslide and the slope angle of an original side slope, wherein the specific relation is as follows:
logL r ＝0.0785logV+1.2347log(H/tanθ) (2)
in the formula: l is r Horizontal displacement for landslide; v is the landslide volume; h is the height difference of the front edge and the rear edge of the landslide; theta is the original slope angle of the side slope.
Referring to FIGS. 2-6, the method of the present invention is further illustrated by an embodiment:
in this embodiment, a plurality of slopes in a plurality of regions in a county in Jiangxi are selected, the detailed condition is as shown in FIG. 2, and it can be known from the figure that there are 5 slopes in region I which need to be monitored and early-warning linked, and the slopes are numbered I respectively 1 ～Ⅰ 5 4 side slopes needing monitoring and early warning linkage exist in the region II, and are respectively numbered II 1 ～Ⅱ 4 And modeling analysis is respectively carried out on all the slopes in all the areas according to the actual measurement data and the topographic data acquired by the unmanned aerial vehicle, and the slopes are kept to a system database, so that monitoring and early warning linkage of multiple areas and multiple slopes is realized. To simplify the implementation process, a side slope I in the area I is selected 4 And carrying out monitoring and early warning linkage in the whole process, and carrying out monitoring and early warning linkage process on other slopes in other areas according to the same method.
Side slope I 4 The height is about 220 meters, the natural gradient is 28-42 degrees, and the landslide hidden danger body is large in size and is a medium-sized landslide. The partially measured data of the slope in the natural condition are shown in the following table 2. Stability analysis is carried out to obtain a side slope I 4 The area easy to slide, fig. 3 is a side slope I 4 The section of the slippery area, FIG. 4 is the slope I 4 A plan view of a slippery area and a mounting position view of monitoring equipment. Further, reliability analysis is performed on the slope according to the measured slope data under the natural conditions in the following table 2, fig. 4 is a graph of a calculation result of primary stability analysis in the reliability analysis, a landslide probability calculation result is shown in the following table 3, the slope is obtained with an initial grade of IV, the early warning mark is blue, and the slope is numbered and stored. Setting data transmission frequency to be 1 time/day by combining table 1, and when monitoring data are transmitted to a system database, extracting the early stage of the slope after the system database receives the dataAnd (5) calculating the landslide probability again according to the data and modeling model, monitoring the data transmission condition of the monitoring equipment received by the area I, and obtaining a primary stability analysis calculation result diagram in reliability analysis after the monitoring data is transmitted. Through the landslide probability that reliability analysis calculated, high definition transmission picture does not discover the crack simultaneously, consequently synthesizes issue level III early warning, and the sign is yellow.
TABLE 2 slope I under Natural conditions 4 Part of the measured data
Figure RE-GDA0003860157050000061
TABLE 3 monitoring data and probability of landslide before and after data transmission
Figure RE-GDA0003860157050000062
At the moment, side slope I 4 Issue yellow early warning and immediately estimate landslide volume to be 892000m 3 Calculating the horizontal displacement of the landslide according to the formula (1) wherein V is 892000m 3 H is 220m at the maximum, theta is 42 degrees at the maximum, and L is calculated r Is 2600m. And arranging refuge measures for landslide disaster areas immediately according to results, emergently evacuating people within a range of 2.6km below the landslide, and emergently blocking roads to reduce life and property losses to the minimum.
While the preferred embodiments of the present invention have been illustrated and described, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that the present invention is not limited to the details of the embodiments shown and described, but is capable of numerous modifications and substitutions without departing from the spirit of the present invention and within the scope of the appended claims.

Claims (6)

1. A multi-region multi-slope comprehensive linkage integrated monitoring and early warning method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1, rapidly acquiring multi-region multi-slope terrain data by adopting an unmanned aerial vehicle according to multi-region multi-slope early-stage actual measurement data, respectively performing stability analysis on the multi-region multi-slope under natural working conditions according to the acquired data information to obtain each landslide easy-to-slide region, further performing first-time reliability analysis by considering parameter variability, calculating slope failure probability, and grading the slopes according to the failure probability;
s2, classifying and numbering the slopes according to the areas to which the slopes belong, reasonably setting monitoring data transmission frequency according to the classification levels of the slopes in the S1, and storing the monitoring data in a system database;
s3, according to the position and the size of the easy-sliding area, mounting monitoring equipment at a certain position below the easy-sliding area, enabling the monitoring range of the monitoring equipment to basically cover the whole easy-sliding area, and connecting the monitoring data to a data acquisition box through a data cable;
s4, according to the monitoring data transmission frequency set in the S2, regularly transmitting the monitoring data in the data acquisition box to a system database, and when the monitoring data of the monitoring area changes, transmitting real-time data to the system database;
s5, after receiving the data, the system database extracts data information of the pretreatment module according to the slope classification serial number, simultaneously performs second reliability analysis by combining with real-time monitoring data, determines the crack condition according to the shot high-definition picture data,
comprehensively releasing landslide early warning levels;
and S6, timely determining a possible disaster area according to the early warning level issued in the S5, and making emergency refuge measures for nearby villages and roads.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the early stage actual measurement data of the multi-region multi-slope includes statistical characteristics of saturation permeability coefficient and shear strength parameters of slope rock-soil mass and unit weight thereof in the S1; the unmanned aerial vehicle rapidly acquires multi-region polygonal slope terrain data, and a remote sensing monitoring network system is rapidly networked at high frequency by adopting the unmanned aerial vehicle, so that large-area rapid terrain data acquisition is realized; the parameters considering the parameter variability of the rock-soil body are saturated permeability coefficient and shear strength parameters; the first reliability analysis is carried out after modeling according to the earlier-stage measured data of the side slope and the acquired topographic data, and the reliability analysis comprises the following specific steps:
(1) Respectively modeling multi-region multi-slope needing monitoring and early warning according to topographic data acquired by the unmanned aerial vehicle;
(2) According to the early-stage actual measurement data, N groups of random samples are generated by adopting Monte Carlo for the saturation permeability coefficient and the shear strength parameter
Figure FDA0003756951740000011
(3) According to the slope model and the measured data, a safety coefficient is solved by adopting a limit balance method, the minimum value of the safety coefficient of the slip surface is taken as the safety coefficient of the slope, and the corresponding slip surface is the most dangerous slip surface;
(4) Obtaining N groups of safety factors according to discrete rock-soil body parameters, calculating the slope failure probability by adopting a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) method, wherein the expression is
Figure FDA0003756951740000021
In the above formula: x is a radical of a fluorine atom i The method comprises the following steps of (1) obtaining a random sample implementation value of an ith group of rock and soil mass parameters; n is MCS sampling times; FS is a slope safety coefficient; i (-) is an indicative function if FS<1.0, then I (·) =1, if FS ≧ 1.0, then I (·) =0.
3. The method of claim 1, wherein in S2, the transmission frequency of the monitoring data is set reasonably according to the classification grade of the slope in S1, and the transmission frequency of the monitoring data is set according to collapse, landslide and debris flow monitoring specification DZ/T0221-2006 and engineering measurement specification GB 50026.
4. The multi-region multi-slope comprehensive linkage integrated monitoring and early warning method according to claim 1, wherein in the step S3, the monitoring data are connected to a data acquisition box through data cables, and the monitoring data comprise rainfall data, high-definition picture data and earthquake grade data of a slope region.
5. The method of claim 1, wherein the step of extracting the data information of the preprocessing module according to the slope classification number in the step S5 comprises the steps of: a. classification and numbering information of each side slope; b. probability of slope failure; c. the data transmission frequency is monitored.
6. The method for comprehensively linking and integrally monitoring and early warning the multi-region and multi-slope according to claim 1, wherein in S6, possible disaster areas are determined in time according to early warning levels issued in S5, and emergency refuge measures for nearby villages and roads are made, and the specific method is as follows:
determining a dangerous area when landslide occurs according to the possible disaster area, then calculating the maximum horizontal distance of possible sliding when landslide occurs in the dangerous area in advance, and taking corresponding emergency risk avoidance measures for villages and roads in the spread range of landslide disasters in time to reduce life and property loss;
calculating the horizontal sliding distance of the landslide according to the correlation relations among the horizontal sliding distance of the landslide, the volume of the landslide, the height difference of the front edge and the rear edge of the landslide and the slope angle of the original side slope by estimating the volume of a landslide body, wherein the specific relation is as follows:
logL r ＝0.0785logV+1.2347log(H/tanθ) (2)
in the above formula: l is a radical of an alcohol r Horizontal displacement for landslide; v is the landslide volume; h is the height difference of the front edge and the rear edge of the landslide; theta is the original slope angle of the side slope.
CN202210865526.0A 2022-07-21 2022-07-21 Multi-region multi-slope comprehensive linkage integrated monitoring and early warning method Pending CN115310274A (en)

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Cited By (2)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN116229371A (en) * 2023-03-13 2023-06-06 浙江省交通运输科学研究院 Sky-ground integrated highway side slope safety prevention and control method
CN117609742A (en) * 2024-01-24 2024-02-27 中建安装集团有限公司 Side slope construction supervision system and method for realizing intelligent management

Cited By (4)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN116229371A (en) * 2023-03-13 2023-06-06 浙江省交通运输科学研究院 Sky-ground integrated highway side slope safety prevention and control method
CN116229371B (en) * 2023-03-13 2023-10-13 浙江省交通运输科学研究院 Sky-ground integrated highway side slope safety prevention and control method
CN117609742A (en) * 2024-01-24 2024-02-27 中建安装集团有限公司 Side slope construction supervision system and method for realizing intelligent management
CN117609742B (en) * 2024-01-24 2024-03-26 中建安装集团有限公司 Side slope construction supervision system and method for realizing intelligent management

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