CN115099477B - Reservoir drought limit water level optimization and drought-resisting scheduling method - Google Patents

Reservoir drought limit water level optimization and drought-resisting scheduling method Download PDF

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CN115099477B
CN115099477B CN202210677885.3A CN202210677885A CN115099477B CN 115099477 B CN115099477 B CN 115099477B CN 202210677885 A CN202210677885 A CN 202210677885A CN 115099477 B CN115099477 B CN 115099477B
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water
drought
reservoir
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water level
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严子奇
韦瑞深
周祖昊
蒋云钟
朱亚美
王坤
郑金丽
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China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research
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Abstract

The invention discloses a reservoir drought limit water level optimization and drought resisting scheduling method, which comprises the following steps: selecting the water in the arid years as the water amount; determining a design water demand according to actual water supply of each water supply object in recent years; setting a preliminary limit coefficient by referring to a national flood prevention and drought resistance emergency plan; taking the dead water level of the reservoir reached at the end of the dispatching cycle as a reference, and obtaining the monthly-by-monthly initial drought-limit water level of the reservoir by recursion in a reverse order; taking the minimum mean value and the minimum standard deviation of the water shortage rate in the arid year as two objective functions, taking the limited supply coefficient as a decision variable, and carrying out multiple iterative optimization by using an NSGA-II algorithm to obtain an optimized limited supply coefficient and a monthly optimized drought limited water level; and water supply scheduling is performed based on the optimized drought limit water level. According to the invention, the NSGA-II algorithm is used for carrying out feedback correction on the drought limit water level according to the scheduling result of the reservoir in the drought year, so that the optimal supply limit coefficient is determined, the drought limit water level of the reservoir is optimized, and scientific basis and technical support are provided for the optimal scheduling of the reservoir drought resistance.

Description

Reservoir drought limit water level optimization and drought-resisting scheduling method
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of water resource scheduling, in particular to a reservoir drought limit water level optimization and drought resisting scheduling method.
Background
At present, in the flood prevention field, a relatively perfect index system such as flood limit water level and the like is established to guide reservoir scheduling, and the index system plays an important role in flood prevention and disaster reduction, but in the drought resistance field, drought characteristic indexes such as water level (water quantity) and the like which can be used for coping with drought disasters and reservoir dry water states are not established in China. Drought-resistant emergency management work such as drought-resistant early warning, drought-resistant consultation, emergency response, water quantity scheduling and the like often lacks scientific basis, has the phenomenon that the decision-making time of drought-resistant command is not accurately grasped or the emergency response is excessive, and influences the scientific and orderly development of the drought-resistant work to a certain extent.
The reservoir has a very important position in regional flood control and drought resistance. At present, research on key control water level of drought resistance of a reservoir is not mature, the drought limit water level can guide optimal scheduling of the reservoir in a dry season, the core idea of the drought limit water level is that water demand is limited in advance before drought, water is stored in the reservoir for use in the drought period, but the limited water demand proportion of each water supply object is difficult to determine, the adopted method is generally empirical or set by referring to the national flood prevention and drought resistance emergency plan, and the performance effect is probably not ideal in the drought year.
In view of the above, there is an urgent need to improve the existing reservoir drought limit water level optimization and water supply scheduling method to determine the optimal supply limit coefficient, optimize the reservoir drought limit water level, and realize the reservoir drought resistance optimization scheduling.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above-mentioned defects, the technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to provide a method for optimizing the drought limit water level and scheduling drought resistance of a reservoir, so as to solve the problems that the limited water demand ratio of each water supply object in the drought year is difficult to determine, and the performance effect is not ideal due to experience or reference to the setting of the national flood prevention and drought resistance emergency plan in the prior art.
Therefore, the invention provides a reservoir drought limit water level optimization and drought resistance scheduling method, which comprises the following steps:
selecting the water coming from the arid years as the water inflow amount for calculating the drought limit water level according to the long series of historical water coming from the reservoir;
determining the design water demand of each water supply object according to the actual water supply amount of each water supply object in the recent years;
setting a preliminary limit coefficient of water demand of each water supply object in arid years by referring to a national flood prevention and drought resistance emergency plan;
by taking hydrological years as a dispatching cycle and taking the dead water level of the reservoir reached at the end of the dispatching cycle as a reference, and according to the designed water demand and the preliminary supply limiting coefficient of each water supply object, carrying out reverse order recursion to obtain the initial drought limit level of the reservoir month by month;
taking the minimum mean value and the minimum standard deviation of the monthly total water shortage rate in the drought year as two objective functions, taking the limited supply coefficient of each water supply object in the drought year as a decision variable, carrying out iterative optimization on the two objective functions for multiple times by using an NSGA-II algorithm, selecting a corresponding optimal solution from a Pareto solution set obtained after the optimization is finished, and obtaining a corresponding optimized limited supply coefficient according to the optimal solution;
the hydrologic year is taken as a scheduling period, the dead water level reference of the reservoir is reached at the end of the scheduling period, and the monthly optimized drought limit water level of the reservoir is obtained by recursion in a reverse order according to the design water demand and the optimized supply limit coefficient of each water supply object;
and optimizing the drought limit water level month by month based on the reservoir, and performing water supply scheduling according to the design water demand and the optimized limit supply coefficient of each water supply object.
In the above method, preferably, the arid years include general arid years of 75% of the frequency of incoming water and ultraarid years of 95% of the frequency of incoming water.
In the above method, preferably, the method of selecting the water from the arid years as the water inflow amount for calculating the drought limit water level according to the long series of historical water inflows of the reservoir is as follows:
according to hydrological calculation specifications of hydraulic and hydroelectric engineering, frequency-discharging the hydrological annual warehousing runoff of a reservoir, and screening the monthly warehousing water yield of the arid years in the actual measurement data of the reservoir;
and (5) performing annual correction through a P-III curve to serve as the inflow amount for calculating the drought limit water level.
In the above method, preferably, the drought limit water level Z of the reservoir t month is obtained by a reverse order recurrence method using the following formula hx,t The drought limit water level comprises an initial drought limit water level and an optimized drought limit water level:
Z hx,t ＝f(W a,t +W loss,t -W p1,t +f′(Z hj,t+1 ))；
wherein, Z hx,t The drought limit water level of the reservoir in t months; z hx,t+1 The drought limit water level of the reservoir in t +1 month; w is a group of p1,t The water quantity of the reservoir in t month of the general arid year; f () reservoir capacity-a water level curve; f' () is a reservoir water level-reservoir capacity curve; w a,t Total water supply, W, of the reservoir t months loss,t The water loss of evaporation and leakage in the tth month of the reservoir.
In the above method, preferably, during the reverse order recursion, the drought-limited water level should satisfy the following constraint condition: water intake elevation, dead water level, normal water storage level and flood limit water level.
In the above method, preferably, the multiple iteration optimizing two objective functions includes the following steps:
step 310, according to the drought years in the water supply process of the reservoir long series, the total water shortage SR of each month in the drought years is obtained through statistics t And further calculating the average value of the total water shortage
Figure BDA0003695153620000031
And the standard deviation σ;
Figure BDA0003695153620000032
Figure BDA0003695153620000033
Figure BDA0003695153620000034
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0003695153620000035
is the average value of the total water shortage rate of the month by month in drought year, SR t The total water shortage rate of the T-th month in the drought year, T is the total number of months in the drought year, sigma is the standard deviation of the monthly total water shortage rate in the drought year, N i Water demand of the ith water supply object, W i Is the water supply amount of the ith water supply object, and n is the number of the total water supply objects.
Step 320, taking the average value of the total water shortage rate of each month in the drought year
Figure BDA0003695153620000036
And the minimum and standard deviation sigma minimum are used as two objective functions, the limited supply coefficient of each water supply object in the drought year is used as a decision variable, the two objective functions are subjected to repeated iterative optimization through an NSGA-II algorithm, an optimal solution is selected from the pareto solution set obtained by optimization, and the optimized limited supply coefficient is obtained according to the optimal solution.
In the above method, preferably, the supply limit coefficient for each water supply target includes:
limited supply coefficient a of domestic water live ；
Limiting coefficient a of industrial water ind ；
Limiting coefficient a of ecological water eco And,
limiting coefficient a of agricultural water irr (ii) a And the number of the first and second electrodes,
0≤a ind ，a eco and a irr ≤1，0.7≤a live ≤1。
In the method, preferably, after the monthly standard drought limit level of the reservoir is obtained, for convenience of management, according to the drought stages, the monthly drought limit level in each drought stage is taken as the maximum value to obtain the staged drought limit level, and the staged drought limit level is used for guiding reservoir scheduling.
According to the technical scheme, the method for optimizing the drought limit water level and scheduling the drought resistance of the reservoir solves the problem that the limited water demand proportion of each water supply object is difficult to determine in the drought year in the prior art. Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
firstly, setting a preliminary water supply limit coefficient of each water supply object in the arid year by referring to a flood control and drought resisting emergency plan, then, taking the minimum mean value and the minimum standard deviation of the total water shortage rate per month in the arid year as a target function, taking the water supply limit coefficient of each water supply object as a decision variable, carrying out multiple iterative optimization on the two target functions by using an NSGA-II algorithm, carrying out feedback correction on the drought limit water level according to a scheduling result in the arid year of the reservoir so as to obtain an optimal supply limit coefficient, calculating the optimal drought limit water level of the reservoir according to the optimal supply limit coefficient, and providing scientific basis and technical support for optimal scheduling of the reservoir.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments of the present invention or the prior art will be briefly described and explained. It is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the invention, and that for a person skilled in the art, other drawings can be derived from them without inventive effort.
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for optimizing drought-limiting water level and scheduling drought resistance of a reservoir provided by the invention;
FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating the calculation of the inflow amount of the drought limit level according to the embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a design water demand for each user;
FIG. 4 is the preliminary limit supply coefficient of each water supply object in the drought year;
FIG. 5 is a stage drought limit level for determining the drought limit level at the beginning of a month;
FIG. 6 is a Pareto solution set obtained after optimization;
FIG. 7 is an optimized supply limiting coefficient for each water supply target;
FIG. 8 is a staged drought limit level of the drought limit level after monthly optimization;
FIG. 9 is a comparison graph of drought-limited water levels under scenario 2 and scenario 3;
FIG. 10 shows the mean water deficit and standard deviation of each water supply subject during a drought year under scenarios 1-3;
fig. 11 is a process of reservoir scheduling water shortage rate under the scenes 1-3.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention will be described clearly and completely with reference to the accompanying drawings, and it is to be understood that the embodiments described below are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments of the present invention without any inventive step, are within the scope of the present invention.
In order to make the technical solution and implementation of the present invention more clearly explained and illustrated, several preferred embodiments for implementing the technical solution of the present invention are described below.
It should be noted that the terms of orientation such as "inside, outside", "front, back" and "left and right" are used herein as reference objects, and it is obvious that the use of the corresponding terms of orientation does not limit the scope of protection of the present invention.
Before drought comes, the core idea of the drought limit water level is to limit the water supply of each water supply object in advance, so that the water storage amount is stored in a reservoir for later use, and the condition of extreme water shortage in the drought period is avoided.
Referring to fig. 1, fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a method for optimizing drought limit water level and scheduling drought resistance of a reservoir according to an embodiment of the present invention, including three aspects of calculating the drought limit water level, optimizing the drought limit water level, and scheduling water supply when the drought limit water level is started.
The drought limit water level calculation method specifically comprises the following steps:
and 110, selecting the water coming from the arid years as the water inflow amount for calculating the drought limit water level according to the long series of historical water coming from the reservoir.
The arid years include general arid years with 75% (P = 75%) of the incoming water frequency and extra arid years with 95% (P = 95%) of the incoming water frequency.
One specific method is as follows: according to hydrological calculation specification of hydraulic and hydroelectric engineering (SL/T278-2020), frequency discharge is carried out on hydrological annual warehousing runoff of the reservoir (statistical data are rearranged according to the frequency of occurrence of the statistical data, the data are arranged in front of those with high frequency of occurrence and in back of those with low frequency of occurrence), monthly warehousing water quantities of general arid years (P = 75%) and extra-arid years (P = 95%) in the actually measured data of the reservoir are screened out, and the monthly warehousing water quantities are corrected through a P-III curve to serve as water demands for calculating corresponding drought limit water levels.
After the monthly drought water limit amount of the reservoir is obtained by calculation, for the convenience of management practice, an outer envelope is taken for the monthly drought water limit amount in each drought stage according to the drought stage on the basis of the monthly drought water limit position (flow), so that the staged drought water limit amount is obtained, and the staged drought water limit amount is used as the water demand for calculating the drought water limit level.
The stage is to determine the drought stage of the reservoir in the year according to the average monthly warehousing flow and the monthly water supply of the reservoir for many years. For example: in one hydrological year, 6 months to 9 months are flood season, 10 months to next year, 2 months are dry season, and 3 months to 5 months are irrigation period.
And step 120, determining the design water demand of each water supply object according to the actual water supply of each water supply object in the recent years as the basis of the water demand limit of the user.
The main water supply objects of the reservoir comprise domestic water, ecological water, industrial water and agricultural water, and the water demand for shipping needs to be calculated for rivers and lakes with navigation requirements, and can be obtained according to water supply statistics for years (for example, 10 years in 2011-2020).
And step 130, setting a preliminary water supply limiting coefficient for each water supply object in arid years by referring to a national flood prevention and drought resistance emergency plan.
Step 140, with hydrologic years as a dispatching cycle, with the dead water level of the reservoir reached at the end of the dispatching cycle as a reference, obtaining the monthly drought limit water level Z of the reservoir by recursion in a reverse order according to the design water demand and the preliminary limit coefficient of each water supply object hx,t The monthly-by-monthly drought limit water level is the monthly-by-monthly initial drought limit water level before optimization.
Z hx,t ＝f(W a,t +W losst -W p1,t +f′(Z hj,t+1 ))；
Wherein, Z hx,t The drought limit water level of the reservoir in t months; z hx,t+1 The drought limit water level of the reservoir in t +1 month; w p1,t The water quantity of the reservoir in t month of the general arid year; f () is a reservoir capacity-water level curve; f' () is a reservoir water level-reservoir capacity curve; w is a group of a,t Total water supply of reservoir t month, W loss,t The water loss of evaporation and leakage in the tth month of the reservoir.
In the process of reverse order recursion, the water level is constrained to meet the conditions of water intake elevation, dead water level, normal water storage level, flood limit water level and the like.
And 150, optimizing the initial drought limit water level to obtain the optimized drought limit water level. The optimization method comprises the steps of taking the minimum mean value and the minimum standard deviation of the monthly total water shortage in the drought year as two objective functions, taking the limited supply coefficient of each water supply object in the drought year as a decision variable, carrying out repeated iteration optimization on the two objective functions by utilizing an NSGA-II algorithm, selecting the optimized limited supply coefficient corresponding to the corresponding optimal solution from a Pareto solution set obtained after the optimization is finished, and then calculating to obtain the optimized drought limited water level of the reservoir.
And 160, optimizing the drought limit water level month by month based on the reservoir, and performing water supply scheduling according to the design water demand and the optimized limit coefficient of each water supply object.
The method for optimizing the drought limit water level specifically comprises the following steps:
step 310, according to the arid years in the water supply process of the reservoir long series, counting to obtain the total water shortage SR of each month in the arid years t And further calculating the average value of the total water shortage
Figure BDA0003695153620000071
And the standard deviation σ.
Figure BDA0003695153620000072
Figure BDA0003695153620000081
Figure BDA0003695153620000082
In the above formula, SR t The total water shortage rate of the t-th month in the drought year,
Figure BDA0003695153620000083
the average value of the total water shortage rate in the drought year, T is the total number of months in the drought year, sigma is the standard deviation of the total water shortage rate in the drought year, N i Water demand of the ith water supply object, W i Is the water supply amount of the ith water supply object, and n is the water supplyTotal number of water subjects.
Step 320, averaging the total water deficit rate of each month in the arid year
Figure BDA0003695153620000084
And the minimum and standard deviation sigma minimum are used as two objective functions, the limited supply coefficient of each water supply object in the drought year is used as a decision variable, optimization is carried out through an NSGA-II algorithm, optimization adjustment is carried out according to the feedback result of each optimization, and the limited supply coefficient corresponding to the optimal solution is selected from the pareto solution set obtained through the last optimization to be used as the optimization limited supply coefficient.
The decision variables include:
limited supply coefficient a of domestic water live ；
Limiting coefficient a of industrial water ind ；
Limiting coefficient a of ecological water eco And,
limiting coefficient a of agricultural water irr (ii) a And the number of the first and second groups is,
0≤a ind a eco ,a irr ≤1；
0.7≤a live ≤1。
the constraints of the objective function are as follows:
(1) And (5) water balance constraint.
V(t+1)＝V(t)+[Q in (t)-Q out (t)]×Δt。
(2) Dead storage capacity, prosperous storage capacity and flood limit storage capacity restriction.
V min (t)≤V(t)≤V min (t)。
(3) Other non-negative constraints.
Wherein: v (t) is the water storage amount of the reservoir at the time period t, and V (t + 1) is the water storage amount of the reservoir at the time period t + 1; q in (t) and Q out (t) respectively representing the water quantity of the reservoir at t time and the water quantity of the reservoir at the time of delivery. V min (t) and V max (t) upper and lower reservoir capacities, V, of the reservoir at time t min (t) is dead storage capacity in flood season V max (t) is the corresponding storage capacity of flood limit water level, and the non-flood period V max And (t) is the corresponding storage capacity of the normal water storage level.
And step 330, calculating the monthly optimized drought limit water level of the reservoir according to the optimized supply limit coefficient and the design water demand of each water supply object.
Specifically, hydrologic years are taken as a scheduling period again, the dead water level reference of the reservoir is reached at the end of the scheduling period, and the monthly optimized drought limit water level of the reservoir is obtained by recursion in a reverse order according to the design water demand and the optimized supply limit coefficient of each water supply object.
The rationality of the method according to the invention is verified below with reference to a specific example.
(1) Area and data.
The reservoir A is a large (II) type comprehensive utilization water conservancy project which mainly aims at flood control, water supply and irrigation and gives consideration to ecological restoration, power generation, cultivation and tourism, and the prosperous storage capacity is 2.735 hundred million m 3 The dead storage capacity is 1.05 hundred million m 3 Total storage capacity of 8.66 hundred million 3 。
The incoming water data adopts 1961-2016 warehousing flow data of the reservoir A, and the water demand data source is 2011-2020 statistical data of water supply of the reservoir A. According to the annual average monthly reservoir entry flow and the monthly water supply of the reservoir A, the drought stage division of the reservoir is carried out in hydrologic years by referring to reservoir scheduling regulations, and the division result is as follows: the flood season is 6 months-9 months, the dry season is 2 months from 10 months to the next year, and the irrigation period is 3 months-5 months.
And (3) performing trend analysis on the annual water storage quantity of the reservoir A by using a Mann Kendall (M-K) trend test method to obtain that the annual water storage quantity of the reservoir A shows a trend of not increasing significantly, wherein the Z value of M-K is 1.49, and the annual water storage quantity of the reservoir A has no significant mutation trend through M-K mutation test and passes consistency test.
According to hydrological calculation specification of hydraulic and hydroelectric engineering (SL/T278-2020), hydrological annual warehousing runoff discharge frequency is adopted, and monthly warehousing water quantity of general arid years (incoming water frequency P = 75%) in actual measurement data of the Fenhe reservoir is screened out. And the annual correction is carried out through a P-III curve to obtain the monthly-by-monthly storage water quantity of the reservoir A of 75% of the year, and the monthly storage water quantity is used as the water inflow quantity of the calculated drought limit water level, and is shown in figure 2.
Main use of reservoir AThe household (water supply object) comprises domestic water, ecological water, industrial water and agricultural water, and the water supply priority is the domestic water, the ecological water, the industrial water and the agricultural water in sequence. Obtaining water demand data of each water supply object according to the statistical data of reservoir A water supply from 2011 to 2020, and discharging the ecological flow of 2m in the flood season according to reservoir A dispatching regulation 3 S; the ecological flow in the non-flood season is 1m 3 The design water demand for each water supply object during the scheduling period is shown in fig. 3.
(2) And (5) optimally calculating the drought limit water level.
Referring to the national flood prevention and drought resistance emergency plan, the preliminary limit coefficient of each water supply object in the drought year is preliminarily set, as shown in fig. 4.
The hydrologic year is taken as a scheduling period, the dead water level of the reservoir reached at the end of the scheduling period is taken as a reference, the monthly initial drought limit level of the reservoir is obtained by recursion in a reverse order according to the design water demand and the initial supply limit coefficient of each water supply object and a water level-reservoir capacity relation curve, and the maximum value in each stage is taken as the staged drought limit level, as shown in fig. 5.
And performing repeated iterative optimization on the two objective functions by using the NSGA-II algorithm with the minimum mean value and standard deviation of the monthly total water shortage in the drought year as objective functions and the limited supply coefficients of water demand of various industries in the drought year as decision variables, wherein the iterative times are set to 500 times, and the population number is set to 100.
And obtaining a group of Pareto solution sets after optimization, wherein the abscissa and the ordinate of the graph 6 respectively represent the mean value and the standard deviation of the water shortage rate in the drought year under the scheduling of the drought-limited water level control reservoir corresponding to different solutions in the Pareto solution sets. Giving the mean value and standard deviation of water shortage rate with weight of 0.5, and selecting the minimum value from the solution set
Figure BDA0003695153620000101
As the optimal solution. The optimal solution is that the average value of the monthly total water shortage rate in the drought year is 0.35, the standard deviation of the monthly total water shortage rate is 0.23, the corresponding optimal drought limit water level is determined according to the optimal supply limit coefficient corresponding to the optimal solution, and reservoir scheduling is carried out.
The optimized supply limiting coefficient of each water supply object is shown in fig. 7, hydrologic years are taken as a scheduling period, the dead water level of the reservoir reached at the end of the scheduling period is taken as a reference, the monthly optimized drought limit level of the reservoir is obtained by recursion in a reverse order according to the design water demand and the preliminary supply limiting coefficient of each water supply object and a water level-reservoir capacity relation curve, and the maximum value in each period is taken as the staged drought limit level, as shown in fig. 8.
(3) And (6) comparing and analyzing.
And 3 scenes are set for comparative analysis on the influence of the drought limit water level on reservoir scheduling in the arid years.
Scenario 1: reservoir dispatching is carried out under the condition of no drought limit water level.
Scenario 2: and (4) scheduling the reservoir according to the drought limit water level determined by the preliminary limit coefficient.
Scenario 3: and (4) performing reservoir dispatching according to the drought limit water level determined by the optimized supply limit coefficient.
The optimized supply limit coefficients of the respective water supply objects in the scenarios 2 and 3 are shown in fig. 5 and 7, respectively. The drought limit water level in the scene 2 and the scene 3 is shown in fig. 6 and 8, and the drought limit water level comparison graph is shown in fig. 9. Compared with scenario 2, the drought water limit level under scenario 3 is lower in drought water limit level, the water limit coefficient under scenario 3 is lower, and the limit degree of each water supply object is higher when the drought water limit level is started. The drought water limit quantity under the situation 3 is lower, and the response times of starting the drought water limit level are less when the drought water limit quantity is applied to the actual dispatching process of the reservoir.
(4) And (4) rationality analysis, namely analyzing the effect of reservoir scheduling by applying drought limit water level in arid years.
According to reservoir water supply scheduling simulation under the conditions 1-3, the average value and standard deviation of the water shortage rate of each water supply object in the drought year are shown in the figure 10.
In comparison with scenario 1, scenario 2 shows a decrease in the mean total water deficit from 38% to 35% and a decrease in the standard deviation from 0.35 to 0.3. And analyzing the water shortage condition of each water supply object. Besides ecology, the average value of the water shortage rate of each water supply object in drought years is slightly improved, the living water shortage rate is reduced from 25% to 22%, and the standard deviation is reduced from 0.29 to 0.26; the average value of the industrial water shortage rate is reduced by 12 percent, and the standard deviation is reduced by 0.06 percent; the average value of the agricultural water shortage rate is reduced by 2%, and the standard deviation is reduced by 0.13; ecological water deficit increased from 37% to 40%, but standard deviation decreased from 0.38 to 0.25. On the whole, the water shortage of each water supply object is improved to a certain extent, the improvement range is not large, and the supply limiting coefficient of the drought water limiting level still needs to be further optimized by using an NSGA-II algorithm.
After the drought limit water level is optimized by using the method, the weight of 0.5 of the mean value and the standard deviation of the water shortage rate is given, and the solution with the minimum value is selected from the pareto solution set as the optimal solution to obtain the optimal drought limit water level.
Compared with the scene 2, the scene 3 still keeps 35% of the average value of the monthly total water shortage rate, but the standard deviation is further reduced from 0.3 to 0.23. According to the analysis on the water shortage rate of each water supply object, the standard deviation of the domestic water shortage rate is further reduced to 0.17, the industrial water shortage rate is reduced to 37%, the standard deviation is reduced to 0.31, and the average value of the agricultural water shortage rate is reduced to 67%. Domestic water has high priority in a water resource configuration system, namely high guarantee requirements, the standard deviation of the domestic water shortage rate is further reduced in the scene 3 compared with the scene 2, the water shortage rate and the standard deviation of industrial water are further reduced, social stability is guaranteed, and the average value of the agricultural water shortage rate is also reduced.
The water shortage rate of each time period in the drought year is analyzed, the number of the time periods of scene 1-3 with the water shortage rate larger than 50% is analyzed by taking the water shortage rate of 50% as a threshold, 79 water shortage rates of scene 1 in months of 50% breakthrough in the dry year, 55 water shortage rates of scene 2 in months of 50% breakthrough, 28 water shortage rates of scene 3 in months of 50% breakthrough, the number of the time periods of 50% breakthrough is greatly reduced by setting the drought limit water level and applying NSGA-II algorithm optimization.
(5) And (5) analyzing the effect of the typical continuous drought year.
In all drought years, a typical drought year (2004-2006 hydrologic years) series is selected, reservoir scheduling under 3 scenes is respectively carried out, and the water shortage rate process is shown in figure 11.
In hydrology years, the water shortage condition is serious under the condition that a drought limit water level is not set, in scene 2, the water shortage condition is improved to a certain extent compared with scene 1, but the amplitude is not large, and in 2005, the water shortage condition of scene 2 is still serious; under the situation 3 after the NSGA-II algorithm is optimized, the water supply condition of each water supply object in the continuous extra-drought year is better, the reduction range of the water shortage rate is larger, and the water supply condition in the continuous extra-drought year is guaranteed.
By combining the description of the specific embodiment, compared with the prior art, the drought-limited water level optimization and drought-resistant scheduling method for the reservoir provided by the invention has the following advantages:
the minimum standard deviation of the average value of the monthly total water shortage rate in the drought year and the monthly total water shortage rate is used as a target function, the supply limiting coefficients of water required by each industry in the drought year are used as decision variables, the supply limiting coefficients of each industry are subjected to feedback correction according to the average value of the monthly total water shortage rate in the drought year and the standard deviation result in the scheduling result, and the NSGA-II algorithm is used for optimization, so that the water shortage rate and the fluctuation range in the drought year are reduced.
The effect of the drought limit water level is analyzed through the mean value of the water shortage rate and the standard deviation of the water shortage rate of each industry in the drought year before and after the drought limit water level is set, the smaller the mean value of the water shortage rate is, the better the water supply effect in the drought year is, the smaller the standard deviation of the water shortage rate is, the smaller the change range of the water shortage rate is, and the occurrence frequency of extreme drought is reduced. After the drought limit water level is set, if the standard deviation of the water shortage rate is reduced and the change range of the water shortage rate is not large, the set drought limit water level can be considered to be reasonable, and the occurrence frequency of the extra-large drought can be reduced. Therefore, the water shortage rate can be homogenized in each time period, the wide and shallow damage is realized, the frequency of extreme water shortage is reduced, and the economic loss caused by extreme drought is reduced.
Finally, it should also be noted that the terms "comprises," "comprising," or any other variation thereof, as used herein, are intended to cover a non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises a list of elements does not include only those elements but may include other elements not expressly listed or inherent to such process, method, article, or apparatus. Without further limitation, an element defined by the phrase "comprising a" \8230; "does not exclude the presence of additional like elements in a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises the element.
The present invention is not limited to the above preferred embodiments, and any structural changes made under the teaching of the present invention shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims (7)

1. A method for optimizing the drought limit water level and scheduling drought resistance of a reservoir is characterized by comprising the following steps:
selecting the water coming from the arid years as the water inflow for calculating the drought limit water level according to the long series of historical water coming from the reservoir;
determining the design water demand of each water supply object according to the actual water supply of each water supply object in the arid year for 10 years;
setting a preliminary limit coefficient of water demand of each water supply object in arid years by referring to a national flood prevention and drought resistance emergency plan, wherein the preliminary limit coefficient of domestic water is 0.95, the preliminary limit coefficient of ecological water is 0.75, the preliminary limit coefficient of industrial water is 0.9, and the preliminary limit coefficient of agricultural water is 0.5;
taking hydrologic years as a scheduling period, taking the dead water level of the reservoir reached at the end of the scheduling period as a reference, and obtaining the monthly initial drought-limiting water level of the reservoir by reverse recursion according to the design water demand and the initial supply-limiting coefficient of each water supply object;
taking the minimum mean value and the minimum standard deviation of the monthly water shortage rate in the drought year as two objective functions, taking the limited supply coefficient of each water supply object in the drought year as a decision variable, carrying out iterative optimization on the two objective functions for multiple times by using an NSGA-II algorithm, selecting a corresponding optimal solution from a Pareto solution set obtained after the optimization is finished, and obtaining a corresponding optimized limited supply coefficient according to the optimal solution;
the hydrologic year is taken as a scheduling period, the dead water level reference of the reservoir is reached at the end of the scheduling period, and the monthly optimized drought limit water level of the reservoir is obtained by recursion in a reverse order according to the design water demand and the optimized supply limit coefficient of each water supply object;
optimizing the drought limit water level month by month based on the reservoir, and performing water supply scheduling according to the design water demand and the optimized limit coefficient of each water supply object;
the limited supply coefficient of each water supply object comprises:
limited supply coefficient a of domestic water live ；
Limiting coefficient a of industrial water ind ；
Limiting coefficient a of ecological water eco And,
limiting coefficient a of agricultural water irr (ii) a And the number of the first and second electrodes,
0≤a ind ≤1，0≤a eco ≤1，0≤a irr ≤1，0.7≤a live ≤1。
2. the method of claim 1, wherein the arid years comprise a general arid year of 75% of the incoming water frequency and a super arid year of 95% of the incoming water frequency.
3. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the method for selecting the water from the arid year as the water inflow amount for calculating the drought limit water level according to the long series of historical water of the reservoir is as follows:
frequency discharging is carried out on hydrologic annual warehousing runoff of a reservoir according to hydrologic calculation specifications of water conservancy and hydropower engineering, statistical data are rearranged according to the frequency of occurrence of the statistical data, a person with high frequency of occurrence is discharged in the front, a person with low frequency of occurrence is discharged in the back, and month-by-month warehousing water quantity of the arid years in the actual measurement data of the reservoir is screened out;
and (5) performing annual correction through a P-III curve to serve as the water inflow for calculating the drought limit water level.
4. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the drought limit water level Z of the reservoir in t months is obtained by a reverse order recurrence method by using the following formula hx,t The drought limit water level comprises an initial drought limit water level and an optimized drought limit water level:
Z hx，t ＝f(W a，t +W loss，t -W p1，t +f′(Z hj，t+1 ))；
wherein, Z hx,t The drought limit water level of the reservoir in t months; z hx,t+1 The drought limit water level of the reservoir in t +1 month; w is a group of p1,t The water quantity of the reservoir in t month of the general arid year; f () is a reservoir capacity-water level curve; f' () is a reservoir water level-reservoir capacity curve; w a,t Total water supply of reservoir t month, W loss,t Lost water for evaporation and leakage at month t of the reservoir.
5. The method of claim 4, wherein the drought-limited water level satisfies the following constraint in the reverse recursion process: water intake elevation, dead water level, normal water storage level and flood limit water level.
6. The method of claim 1, wherein the two objective functions are optimized for a plurality of iterations, comprising the steps of:
step 310, according to the arid years in the water supply process of the reservoir long series, counting to obtain the total water shortage SR of each month in the arid years t And further calculating the average value of the total water shortage
Figure FDA0003946446750000021
And the standard deviation σ;
Figure FDA0003946446750000022
Figure FDA0003946446750000031
Figure FDA0003946446750000032
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure FDA0003946446750000033
is the average value of the total water shortage rate of the month by month in drought year, SR t The total water shortage rate of the T-th month in the drought year, and T is the total month in the drought yearNumber, sigma is the standard deviation of the total water shortage monthly in drought year, N i Is the water demand of the ith water supply object, W i The water supply amount of the ith water supply object is obtained, and n is the total number of the water supply objects;
step 320, taking the average value of the total water shortage rate of each month in the drought year
Figure FDA0003946446750000034
And the minimum and standard deviation sigma minimum are used as two objective functions, the limited supply coefficient of each water supply object in the drought year is used as a decision variable, the two objective functions are subjected to repeated iterative optimization through an NSGA-II algorithm, an optimal solution is selected from the pareto solution set obtained by optimization, and the optimized limited supply coefficient is obtained according to the optimal solution.
7. The method of claim 3, wherein after the monthly-by-monthly drought limit water level of the reservoir is obtained, for convenience of management, according to the drought stages, the monthly-by-monthly drought limit water level in each drought stage is maximized to obtain staged drought limit water levels, and the staged drought limit water levels are used for guiding reservoir scheduling.
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