CN115169825B - Method for determining drought alarm water levels of reservoirs with different adjusting capacities - Google Patents

Method for determining drought alarm water levels of reservoirs with different adjusting capacities Download PDF

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CN115169825B
CN115169825B CN202210677528.7A CN202210677528A CN115169825B CN 115169825 B CN115169825 B CN 115169825B CN 202210677528 A CN202210677528 A CN 202210677528A CN 115169825 B CN115169825 B CN 115169825B
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严子奇
周祖昊
韦瑞深
严登华
蒋云钟
王坤
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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for determining the dry alarm water levels of reservoirs with different adjusting capacities, which comprises the following steps: determining two levels of control periods of a dispatching period T of the reservoir and a guarantee period Pi of each month i according to actual management requirements; determining the water inflow according to the inflow warehousing series of the arid year, and taking the product of the water demand of each industry and the drought adjustment coefficient under the normal year as the socioeconomic water demand; and recursion is carried out on the monthly drought alarm water level of the reservoir through the scheduling period and the inner and outer layers of the guarantee period in a reverse order according to a reservoir water level-reservoir capacity relation function, social and economic water demand, reservoir discharge ecological water demand, reservoir design water demand, reservoir evaporation and leakage loss water quantity and reservoir upper limit reservoir capacity by taking the end-of-term water level of the guarantee period corresponding to each month as an initial value. The invention can be suitable for reservoirs with different adjusting capacities, effectively reduces the risk of major water shortage in the drought years, and provides scientific basis and technical support for the drought-resistant optimal scheduling of the reservoirs.

Description

Method for determining drought alarm water levels of reservoirs with different adjusting capacities
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of water resource scheduling, in particular to a method for determining drought police water levels of reservoirs with different adjusting capacities.
Background
The water level of the reservoir drought alarm is the water level which is required to pay attention to or take drought-resisting measures due to the fact that the water level of the reservoir is continuously reduced, normal living and production in a drainage basin or a region, an important ecological sensitive region and the like face the risk of water shortage, and is also an important mark for the reservoir scheduling management to enter emergency management from normal management.
In the notice of determining the drought limit water level (flow rate) (Do Han Yi (2011) ]32), the water balance method is adopted to calculate the water level of the drought police of the reservoir, namely, the water supply amount of the reservoir in each month is determined according to the design water supply amount and the water demand of the reservoir and the requirement of the water guarantee period (such as one month or two or three months). And taking the water level corresponding to the sum of the maximum water supply quantity required in each month and the dead storage capacity as the drought alarm water level of the reservoir. However, since one value is used for early warning all the year round, the practical application has more limitations, and the risk of serious water shortage in the dry year exists.
In research on design and control of water level of classified and staged drought limit of reservoir (journal of water conservancy project, no. 53, no. 3, 2022-3), a reverse order recursion method is provided for determining water level of classified and staged drought alarm of reservoir. And obtaining the monthly drought police water level by adopting a water quantity balance reverse recursion method from the end of the hydrological year. The method herein has the following disadvantages:
firstly, the annual regulation reservoir is only applicable to the seasonal regulation reservoir and the multi-year regulation reservoir;
secondly, the water supply guarantee time interval of each month of the reservoir is flexibly adjusted according to the functions of the reservoir, for example, the water supply guarantee time interval of each month of the reservoir serving as a city water source is 3 months, the water supply guarantee time interval of each month of the reservoir reaches the end of the hydrological year in the calculation process, the calculation result of the drought alarm water level is high, and early warning is frequently started.
In view of the above, improvement on the existing method for calculating the water level of the drought police of the reservoir is urgently needed, and the method is suitable for drought resisting scheduling requirements of reservoirs with different adjusting capacities so as to effectively reduce the risk of major water shortage in the drought years.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects, the invention aims to provide a method for determining the water level of a reservoir drought police, so as to solve the problems that the water level of the drought police in the prior art has more limitations and has a risk of serious water shortage in the drought year.
Therefore, the invention provides a method for determining the dry alarm water levels of reservoirs with different adjusting capacities, which comprises the following steps:
determining a dispatching period T of a reservoir and two-level control periods of guarantee periods Pi of each month i in the dispatching period T according to actual management requirements; wherein, the dispatching period T refers to the dispatching cycle of the reservoir, and the guarantee period of the ith month is Pi month;
determining the water demand of the drought year according to the water inlet series of the drought year, and taking the product of the water demand of each industry and the drought adjustment coefficient under the normal year as the socioeconomic water demand for determining the water level of the drought police;
and recursion is carried out on the monthly drought alarm water level of the reservoir through the scheduling period and the inner and outer layers of the guarantee period in a reverse order according to a reservoir water level-reservoir capacity relation function, social and economic water demand, reservoir discharge ecological water demand, reservoir design water demand, reservoir evaporation and leakage loss water quantity and reservoir upper limit reservoir capacity by taking the end-of-term water level of the guarantee period corresponding to each month as an initial value.
In the above method, preferably, the arid year is a general arid year or an extra arid year, the general arid year refers to a 75% water frequency coming year, and the extra arid year refers to a 95% water frequency coming year.
In the above method, preferably, the obtaining of the monthly-by-monthly drought police water level of the reservoir by the reverse-order recursion of the inner layer and the outer layer of the scheduling period and the guarantee period comprises the following steps:
performing outer-layer recursion from the 1 st month to the last month in the scheduling period, and performing inner-layer recursion from the last month to the first month in the guarantee period of each month to obtain the early month water level of the first month in the guarantee period as the month drought alarm water level;
the end water level of the last month in the guarantee period Pi of the ith month just reaches the reservoir dead water level W0 and is used as an initial value of the reverse order calculation;
performing inner-layer reverse order recursion calculation according to the following formula to obtain the water storage amount W corresponding to the beginning of the ith month i 1 I.e. drought police water quantity W of month i hx，i ；
Figure RE-GDA0003794322490000031
W l Pi+1 ＝W 0
Drought police water level of month i is Z hx，i ＝f(W hx，i )；
In the formula: w i j The initial monthly water storage capacity of the reservoir at the jth month in the guarantee period of the ith month; w hx，i The drought policeman water yield in the ith month;Z hx，i the drought police water level in month i;
Figure RE-GDA0003794322490000032
respectively the socioeconomic water demand, the ecological water demand for leakage, the evaporation leakage and the designed water supply of the jth month in the guarantee period of the ith month; w limit The upper limit storage capacity of the reservoir; w0 is the dead storage capacity of the reservoir; f (x) is a reservoir water level-reservoir capacity relation function.
In the above-described method, it is preferable that,
judging whether the inner layer recursion end condition is met or not according to the comparison result of j and 1;
and judging whether the outer layer recursion finishing condition is met or not according to the comparison result of the current i and the scheduling period T.
In the above method, preferably, the drought police water level of the reservoir is adjusted for many years, the scheduling period may be set according to a historically appearing cross-year drought scene, or the scheduling period T may be set to T = int (interest-making storage capacity/designed water supply) x 12 months.
In the above method, preferably, the multi-year schedule period is divided into two stages of year 1 and years 2 to N; for the 2 nd to N th years, carrying out annual year-by-year reverse order recursion calculation to obtain the water-bearing capacity at the end of the 1 st year; on the basis, the 1 st year is subjected to month-by-month reverse order recursion calculation to obtain the drought police water level for coping with the two-year continuous drought.
In the method, preferably, the scheduling period is N years, and the year 1 end minimum expected water quantity W 'is obtained by calculation according to the following formula' 1end ；
Figure RE-GDA0003794322490000033
In the formula: w' 1end The water amount is the water amount required at the end of 1 year; w s，i Water is needed for socioeconomic water of the ith year; w e，i The ecological water demand for the reservoir discharge in the ith year of the reservoir; w Q，i Designing the inflow amount of the reservoir of the ith year; w loss，i The water loss caused by evaporation and leakage in the ith year of the reservoir; w limit The upper limit storage capacity of the reservoir is adopted, and the flood season corresponds to the flood limitThe reservoir capacity of the reservoir is the reservoir capacity corresponding to the normal water storage level of the reservoir in the non-flood period; w 0 Is a dead storage capacity.
In the above method, preferably, the method further comprises the following steps of, based on the drought alarm water level, performing reservoir scheduling control in a drought resisting period: and when the water level of the reservoir is lower than the drought alarm water level, starting drought-resistant scheduling, and taking the product of the water demand of each industry and the drought adjustment coefficient under the normal year as the water supply amount during drought-resistant scheduling.
According to the technical scheme, the method for determining the drought police water levels of the reservoirs with different adjusting capacities solves the problems that in the prior art, early warning is carried out by adopting one value all the year around, more limitations exist in practical application, and the risk of serious water shortage exists in the drought year. Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
according to the control periods of two levels of the scheduling period and the guarantee period, the initial water level of the first month of each guarantee period in the scheduling period is obtained by adopting a two-layer reverse order recursion algorithm and is used as the drought alarm water level of each guarantee period, so that the method can be suitable for reservoirs with different adjusting capacities, effectively reduces the risk of serious water shortage in drought years, and provides scientific basis and technical support for optimal scheduling of drought resistance of the reservoirs.
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In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments of the present invention or the prior art will be briefly described and explained. It is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the invention, and that for a person skilled in the art, other drawings can be derived from them without inventive effort.
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for determining dry alarm water levels for reservoirs of different adjustment capacities according to the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of the principle of calculating the drought alarm water volume;
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of a calculation of a water level of a multi-year regulated reservoir drought police;
FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram of dry alarm water level, water storage amount and characteristic water level of Zhang Feng reservoir;
FIG. 5 is a schematic diagram showing the water level and water shortage change of a drought alarm;
fig. 6 is a schematic diagram of water shortage rate of various industries with or without dry polices.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention will be described clearly and completely with reference to the accompanying drawings, and it is to be understood that the embodiments described below are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments of the present invention without any inventive step, are within the scope of the present invention.
In order to make the technical solution and implementation of the present invention more clearly explained and illustrated, several preferred embodiments for implementing the technical solution of the present invention are described below.
It should be noted that the terms of orientation such as "inside, outside", "front, back" and "left and right" are used herein as reference objects, and it is obvious that the use of the corresponding terms of orientation does not limit the scope of protection of the present invention.
The method for determining the dry police water levels of the reservoirs with different adjusting capacities introduces two control period variables of the dispatching period and the guarantee period to determine the dry police water levels, carries out drought resisting dispatching management on the reservoirs based on the dry police water levels, greatly improves the water shortage phenomenon, can effectively reduce the risk of serious water shortage in the drought years, and provides technical support for drought defense.
Referring to fig. 1, fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a method for determining dry alarm water levels of reservoirs with different adjustment capacities according to an embodiment of the present invention.
As shown in figure 1, the method for determining the drought alarm water levels of reservoirs with different adjusting capacities comprises the following steps:
step 110, determining a dispatching period T of the reservoir and control periods of two levels of guarantee periods Pi of each month i in the dispatching period T according to actual management requirements; wherein, the dispatching period T refers to the dispatching cycle of the reservoir, and the guarantee period of the ith month is Pi month.
Setting two levels of control periods of a dispatching period T and a guarantee period Pi to determine the dry police water level, and aiming at determining the dry police water level of a reservoir with different adjusting capacities such as multi-year adjustment, year adjustment and season adjustment according to the difference between the forecasting capacity and the water quantity guarantee demand of the reservoir in actual operation so as to realize accurate management of the dry police water level of the reservoir.
The scheduling period T is usually a hydrological year, and generally the last month before the first to the second flood season is taken as the scheduling period. The multi-year regulating reservoir can be used for replenishing the dry in abundance between the annual periods, and can also be provided with a cross-year scheduling period, wherein a plurality of continuous hydrologic years are used as the scheduling period.
The guarantee period Pi reflects a water supply guarantee period (the number of months for which water supply is guaranteed) of the corresponding month i of the reservoir under the drought year, for example, 2 months, 3 months, and the like. For regions with finer scheduling management, the guarantee period of each month can be set differently, for example, considering the irrigation water collection middle period of 3 and 4 months in the north, the drought alarm water level of 3 months can be set to 2, the irrigation water of 3 and 4 months is guaranteed, and for a water source area of an extra large city, the urban water of 3 months is guaranteed at least in a dry period.
And step 120, determining the water demand of the drought year according to the water-in-warehouse series of the drought year, and taking the product of the water demand of each industry and the drought adjustment coefficient under the normal year as the socioeconomic water demand for determining the water level of the drought police.
The drought police water level is a water level control index aiming at ensuring the basic water demand in the arid years and relates to two boundary conditions of the water quantity and the basic water demand in the arid years.
The arid years can be analyzed and calculated according to the hydrological data of more than 30 years, wherein the general arid years refer to the age with 75% of water frequency, and the ultra-arid years refer to the age with 95% of water frequency. The hydrological data should fully consider the current underlying surface condition and the upstream water taking condition, and the data series capable of fully reflecting the current actual hydrological condition is adopted for analysis. For reservoirs and lakes in a cross-basin water diversion system, the process of warehousing runoff needs to be determined by combining with a water diversion rule.
The basic water demand of the arid year is determined, so that the basic water use target required to be guaranteed in the arid year is determined, the basic domestic water use of urban and rural residents in the arid year is guaranteed preferentially, and the production and ecological water use are arranged reasonably. The basic water demand in the arid year can be obtained by methods of water use survey statistics, quota calculation and water resource configuration model adjustment, and water demand requirements and engineering water supply capacity of different industries, different users and different time periods are mainly considered. And the quantitative indexes of different levels of drought in the basin flood prevention drought-resistant emergency plan can be determined by referring to the drought adjustment coefficients in the table 1, and the product of the water demand of each industry and the drought adjustment coefficients in the normal year is used as the socioeconomic water demand for determining the two-level drought police water level (flow).
Table 1 drought adjustment coefficient reference table.
Figure RE-GDA0003794322490000071
And step 130, obtaining the monthly drought alarm water level of the reservoir by two layers of reverse recursions in the dispatching period and the guarantee period by taking the end-of-period water level of each guarantee period as an initial value, and taking the end-of-period water level of each guarantee period as an initial value according to a reservoir water level-reservoir capacity relation function, the social and economic water demand, the reservoir discharge ecological water demand, the reservoir design water demand, the reservoir evaporation and leakage loss water quantity and the reservoir upper limit reservoir capacity, wherein the guarantee period is an inner layer recursion and the dispatching period is an outer layer recursion.
Performing outer-layer recursion from the 1 st month to the last month in the scheduling period, and performing inner-layer recursion from the last month to the first month in the guarantee period of each month to obtain the early month water level of the first month in the guarantee period as the month drought alarm water level;
wherein, the end water level of the last month in the guarantee period Pi of the ith month just reaches the reservoir dead water level W0 to be used as an initial value of the reverse order calculation;
performing inner-layer reverse order recursion calculation according to the following formula to obtain the water storage amount W corresponding to the beginning of the ith month i 1 I.e. drought police water quantity W of month i hx,i ；
Figure RE-GDA0003794322490000072
W i Pi+1 ＝W 0
Drought police water level of month i is Z hx,i ＝f(W hx,i )；
In the formula: w i j The initial monthly storage capacity of the reservoir at the jth month in the guarantee period of the ith month; w hx,i The drought policeman water yield in the ith month; z hx,i The drought police water level in month i;
Figure RE-GDA0003794322490000073
respectively the socioeconomic water demand, the ecological water demand for leakage, the evaporation leakage and the designed water supply of the jth month in the guarantee period of the ith month; w limit The upper limit storage capacity of the reservoir; w0 is the dead storage capacity of the reservoir; f (x) is a reservoir water level-reservoir capacity relation function.
(1) For year regulation and season regulation reservoir reservoirs, the calculation method of the dry alarm water level is as follows:
and step 131, setting a dispatching period T =12 months of the annual dispatching reservoir, wherein i represents the ith month in the dispatching period T, and i belongs to (1, 12). Let the guarantee period of the ith month be Pi month, j represents the jth month in the guarantee period, j ∈ (1, pi).
Step 132, let i =1, and perform outer layer recursion initialization, that is, schedule period recursion initialization, starting from the 1 st month in the schedule period.
And step 133, letting j = Pi, performing inner-layer recursive initialization, namely performing guaranteed period recursive initialization, and starting inner-layer reverse-order recursive from the end of the guaranteed period of the ith month.
And step 134, setting the end water level of the last month in the guarantee period Pi of the ith month to just reach the reservoir dead water level W0.
135, performing inner-layer reverse order recursion calculation according to the following formula to obtain the water storage amount W corresponding to the beginning of the jth month in the guarantee period of the ith month i j ；
Figure RE-GDA0003794322490000081
W i Pi+1 ＝W 0 。
Step 136, judging whether the inner layer recursion end condition is met or not according to the comparison result of j and 1, and turning to step 137 if the inner layer recursion end condition is not met; if the inner layer recurrence end condition is satisfied, go to step 139.
Step 137, let W0= Wj, j = j-1, go to step 135, calculate the water storage amount W corresponding to the drought alarm water level of the jth month in guarantee period Pi again i j 。
Step 138, apply W i 1 As the initial water storage capacity of the ith month of the dispatching period, namely the drought alarm water capacity W of the ith month hx,i The drought alarm water level of the ith month in the dispatching period is Z hx,i ＝f(W hx,i ) And f (x) is a reservoir water level-reservoir capacity relation function, and the step 136 is executed.
Step 139, judging whether an outer layer recursion finishing condition is met or not according to a comparison result of the current i and the current T, and if not, turning to step 140; if the water level of the reservoir is satisfied, the outer layer recursion is finished, and the double-layer recursion of the scheduling period and the guarantee period of the dry alarm water level of the reservoir is completed.
Step 140, let i = i +1, execute step 133, and perform recursion of the next month in the scheduling period.
The following description will be made with reference to a specific example shown in fig. 2.
In this embodiment, the scheduling period T of the annual scheduling reservoir is 12 months, and guarantee periods P1 to P4 of 1 to 4 months are exemplarily shown, and the guarantee periods of 5 to 12 months are omitted from illustration. Wherein P1=2, P2=2, P3=2, and P4=3.
Taking 1-4 months as an example, the process of calculating the drought police water level of the annual dispatching reservoir by sequential double-layer recursion is as follows:
the first step, let i =1, calculate the drought alarm water level for 1 month in reverse order recursion.
Let j =2, guarantee the last month in the period P1 by 1 monthThe final water level of 2 months reaches the reservoir dead water level W0 just and is an initial value according to W i j Calculating formula to obtain the initial water storage amount of 2 months
Figure RE-GDA0003794322490000091
And judging whether the condition of finishing the inner layer recursion is met or not according to whether the value of j is equal to 1 or not, wherein the condition of finishing the inner layer recursion is that whether the value of j is less than or equal to the first month of the guarantee period P1 or not.
Since j =2 is larger than 1, the condition for ending recursion is not satisfied, and therefore, the amount of water is used
Figure RE-GDA0003794322490000092
For the initial value, calculating the water storage capacity corresponding to the initial water level of the j-1 th month (1 month) in the guarantee period P1 in a reverse order recursion manner, and obtaining the initial water storage capacity ^ of the 1 month>
Figure RE-GDA0003794322490000093
And judging whether the condition of finishing inner layer recursion is met again.
At this time, j =1 satisfies the condition of ending the recursion, so that the drought alarm water level inner layer recursion of 1 month is ended, and the drought alarm water level inner layer will be ended
Figure RE-GDA0003794322490000094
Drought police water volume W as 1 month hx,1 Calculating to obtain the drought alarm water level Z of 1 month on the basis hx,1 ，Z hx,1 ＝f(W hx,1 )。
And judging whether the condition of finishing the outer layer recursion is met according to whether i is more than or equal to the scheduling period T =12, wherein the condition of finishing the outer layer recursion is that i is more than or equal to the scheduling period T.
At this time, i =1 is smaller than T =12, the condition of ending the outer layer recursion is not satisfied, the second step is executed, and the drought alarm water level of 2 months is calculated continuously in a reverse recursion manner.
And secondly, enabling i = i +1, and calculating the drought alarm water level of 2 months in a reverse recursion manner.
Let j =2, taking the end water level of the second month (3 months) in the guarantee period P2 of the month 2 just reaching the reservoir dead water level W0 as an initial value according to W i j Calculating formula to obtain the initial water storage amount of the second month (3 months)
Figure RE-GDA0003794322490000101
And judging whether the condition of finishing the inner layer recursion is met or not according to whether the value of j is equal to 1 or not, wherein the condition of finishing the inner layer recursion is that whether the value of j is less than or equal to the first month of the guarantee period P2 or not.
Since j =2 is larger than 1, the condition for ending the recursion is not satisfied, and therefore, the amount of water is used
Figure RE-GDA0003794322490000102
For the initial value, calculating the water storage capacity corresponding to the initial water level of the j-1 th month (2 months) in the guarantee period P2 in a reverse order recursion manner to obtain the initial water storage capacity ^ of the first month (2 months) in the guarantee period>
Figure RE-GDA0003794322490000103
And judging whether the condition of finishing inner layer recursion is met again.
At this time, j =1 satisfies the condition of ending the recursion, so that the drought alarm water level inner layer recursion of 2 months is ended, and the drought alarm water level inner layer will be ended
Figure RE-GDA0003794322490000104
Drought police water volume W as 1 month hx,2 Calculating and obtaining the drought alarm water level Z of 2 months on the basis hx,2 ，Z hx,2 ＝f(W hx,2 )。
At this time, i =2 is smaller than T =12, the condition of ending the outer layer recursion is not satisfied, and the drought alarm water level of 3 months is calculated continuously in a reverse recursion manner.
And by analogy, respectively calculating the drought alarm levels of 3 months and 4 months in a reverse order and recurrently.
Further, until a dry alarm water level of 12 months is obtained in a reverse recursion, at which time i =12 equals the schedule period T =12, the outer recursion ends.
Thus, the monthly drought police level in the whole scheduling period is obtained.
The calculation method of the dry alarm water level of the season debugging reservoir is similar to that of the annual dispatching reservoir and is not repeated.
(2) A dry alarm water level calculation method for a multi-year-adjusted reservoir.
Aiming at adjusting the reservoir for years, the water level of the drought police for coping with the continuous drought across the years can be set. Considering the water supply guarantee demand and hydrologic forecasting capability of the reservoir for continuous arid years, the scheduling period can be set according to the cross-year and continuous arid scenes which appear historically, and can also be set as T = int (interest-making storage capacity/designed water supply) multiplied by 12 months. At this time, the algorithm can still be used for years of month-by-month reverse order recursion. Taking two-year continuous drought as an example, the drought police levels for continuous drought and the drought police levels for one-year drought can be respectively obtained, as shown in fig. 3.
If the uncertainty of the water amount of the following years which come month by month is considered, the multi-year scheduling period can be divided into two stages, namely, the 1 st year and the 2 nd to the N nd years. For the 2 nd to N th years, carrying out annual year-by-year reverse order recursion calculation to obtain the water-bearing capacity at the end of the 1 st year; and carrying out monthly reversed-order recursion calculation on the 1 st year on the basis to obtain a calculation process of the drought police water level for coping with two-year continuous drought. The specific calculation steps are as follows:
step 141, assuming the scheduling period is N years, calculating the water amount to be stored at the end of the 1 st year
Figure RE-GDA0003794322490000111
In the formula: w' 1end The water amount is the water amount required at the end of 1 year; w s,i Water is needed for socioeconomic water of the ith year; w e,i The ecological water demand for the reservoir discharge in the ith year of the reservoir; w Q,i Designing the inflow amount of the reservoir of the ith year; w loss,i The water loss caused by evaporation and leakage in the ith year of the reservoir; w limit The upper limit storage capacity of the reservoir is set (the storage capacity corresponding to the flood limit in the flood season, and the storage capacity corresponding to the normal water storage level of the reservoir in the non-flood season); w 0 The dead storage capacity.
And 142, calculating the monthly drought alarm water level in the 1 st year in a reverse recursion manner on the basis of the water storage capacity at the end of the 1 st year.
In the method, as the guarantee period variable P of each month can be set in a differentiated manner, the guarantee period of the reserved water volume of the drought alarm water level in each month can be flexibly controlled in the determination process of the drought alarm water level, and the guarantee period can be flexibly adjusted according to the actual management requirement.
And finally, based on the drought alarm water level, carrying out reservoir dispatching control in a drought resisting period: and when the water level of the reservoir is lower than the drought alarm water level, starting drought-resistant scheduling, and taking the product of the water demand of each industry and the drought adjustment coefficient under the normal year as the water supply amount during drought-resistant scheduling.
The determination of the water level of the drought police can be classified according to the actual drought resisting requirement of the reservoir. Under the general condition, two levels of a dry police water level and a dry water conservation water level are recommended to be set, and the water level threshold value for ensuring main water supply requirements of urban and rural life, industrial and agricultural production and ecological environment under the condition of mild drought can be used as a reference index for the start of grade IV or III drought-resistant emergency response in drainage basin and regional drought-resistant plans. The drought-preserved water level is used for guaranteeing the water level (flow) threshold value of basic water supply requirements of urban and rural life, industrial and agricultural production and ecological environment under the condition of extra-large drought, and can be used as a reference index for I or II grade drought-resistant emergency response starting in a drainage basin and regional drought-resistant plan. For the drought police water levels under different levels, the water supply process and the water demand process corresponding to the drought year are adopted in the calculation.
The water level of the drought police can be used as a main condition for starting the drought control dispatching of the reservoir and a reference index for guiding the drought control dispatching. And when the water volume of the reservoir is continuously less and the water volume of the guarantee period P reaches the designed low water level and the water level of the reservoir is close to or reaches the water level of a drought police, starting the drought resisting dispatching of the reservoir. At the moment, the reservoir takes the basic water demand of the arid years determined by the method as a water supply target to carry out water supply scheduling. The essence of the method is that the water quantity is reserved for the later period through the early-stage wide and shallow limited water shortage, and the unrecoverable severe water shortage in the guarantee period is avoided.
The method of the invention is now validated in connection with a specific implementation.
(1) Area and data.
The Zhang Feng reservoir of Shanxi province is selected as a research object, and the Zhang Feng dead reservoir capacity is 0.38 hundred million m 3 The Xingli reservoir capacity is 3.03 hundred million m 3 . The dead water level is 728.2m, the flood limit water level is 759.0m, the flood season is 6-9 months, and the Zhang Feng reservoir belongs to a perennial regulation reservoir. The Zhang Feng reservoir belongs to a perennial regulation reservoir, and is prone to severe water shortage under the condition of continuous extreme dry years in history, so that the perennial scheduling period of the drought police water level of the Zhang Feng reservoir is set to be two years.
The monthly water supply amount of various industries of Zhang Feng reservoir is shown in table 2. According to 1956-2019 year warehousing flow data of the Zhang Feng reservoir, the annual runoff and monthly allocation process of the Zhang Feng reservoir in the extra-arid years (95% frequency) are determined by adopting a frequency analysis method and used as the designed warehousing runoff for calculating the drought police water level, and the design warehousing runoff is shown in the (2) column of the table 4. The monthly evaporation leakage amount of the Zhang Feng reservoir is 1 percent of the initial storage capacity of a month.
TABLE 2 Peak reservoir design Water supply (Unit: ten thousand m) 3 )
Figure RE-GDA0003794322490000121
Figure RE-GDA0003794322490000131
In the continuous extra-large drought years, the water demand guarantee rates of various types are comprehensively considered, and water demands of various industries are adjusted by adopting a table 2: the method has the advantages of completely guaranteeing the domestic water, slightly limiting the industrial water, properly limiting the ecological water and guaranteeing the water in the agricultural irrigation peak period of 4 months and 7 months. The water demand of each user after the reduction in the drought year is shown in columns (3) to (6) of table 4.
TABLE 3 Peak water level regulation coefficient table for drought police in reservoir
Figure RE-GDA0003794322490000132
And (6) obtaining the result.
Two year recursive calculations were carried out using the method of fig. 3. The water supply process with the frequency of 98 percent is adopted in the first year and the second year. The method comprises the steps of firstly calculating the water demand of the second year (6 months), wherein the calculation process of the drought police water level is shown in a table 4, supposing that the storage capacity reaches the dead storage capacity at the end of the second year in the arid year, overlapping the water demand adjusted all year round and subtracting the water demand from the year round to obtain the initial storage capacity.
And (3) making the last storage capacity of May in the 1 st year equal to the initial storage capacity of 6 months in the second year, calculating the dry alarm water level of each month in the 1 st year month one by one on the basis, namely superposing the (3) th to (7) th rows on the (8) th row, subtracting the (2) th row to obtain the (1) row, recurrently obtaining the initial storage capacity of the month one by one, and adding the dead storage capacity to obtain the dry alarm storage capacity, which is shown in the (9) th row. Through the relation of the water level-storage capacity curve, the monthly drought police water level for coping with two-year continuous drought can be obtained, as shown in fig. 4.
TABLE 4 Peak reservoir drought police storage capacity calculation table (unit: ten thousand meters) 3 )
Figure RE-GDA0003794322490000133
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Figure RE-GDA0003794322490000141
Effect analysis
2008.6-2009.5 was selected as a representative year for continuous withering. Wherein, 2008 hydrology year corresponds to the water frequency of 89%,2009 hydrology year corresponds to the water frequency of 98%. And (5) comparing and analyzing the water shortage process of the Zhang Feng reservoir water supply object under the condition of whether the drought alarm water level control exists or not.
Under the condition that the water level of a drought police is not set, although no water shortage phenomenon appears in 2008, serious water shortage can occur from 11 months in 2009, the water shortage rate of 7 months is more than 60%, the water shortage rate of 3 months is more than 90%, and the water shortage rate of 1 month reaches 100%; after the dry alarm water level is set to control reservoir dispatching, corresponding water supply adjusting measures are started after the reservoir reaches the dry alarm water level, and the coefficients of the table 3 are adopted to properly limit water supply. The total water shortage and the change thereof in the drought year before and after the drought police water level is set are shown in fig. 5, and the water shortage phenomenon in 2009 is improved to a greater extent.
And analyzing the change condition of each user. After the drought police water level is set, in 2008, partial water demand of industry, ecology and agriculture is limited in advance, so that water is reserved in the reservoir, and in the second drought year, the water shortage condition of each user is greatly improved. The water shortage phenomenon does not occur in life, the monthly water shortage rate is reduced by 100% at most, the industrial monthly water shortage rate is reduced by 90% at most, the ecological flow monthly water shortage rate is reduced by 75% at most, and the water shortage condition is improved to a greater extent; for agricultural irrigation, the water shortage rate in 3 months is reduced from 100% to 50%, the water shortage rate in 4 months is reduced from 100% to 50%, and during the key period of agricultural irrigation, agriculture can still be irrigated, so that the agricultural production during the key period is guaranteed. After setting the dry alarm water level, the change process of the water shortage rate of each user is shown in fig. 6 compared with before setting the dry alarm water level.
Setting the domestic water shortage rate of 10%, the ecological water shortage rate of 30%, the industrial water shortage rate of 20% and the agricultural water shortage rate of 80% as severe water shortage thresholds, and statistically analyzing the number of severe water shortage months before and after the drought police water level is set in each industry within the 2008-2009 hydrologic year, which is shown in table 5. The number of months of severe water shortage in life, industry and ecology is reduced, the number of months of severe water shortage in life, ecology and industry is not increased after the water level of the dry police is set, and the number of months of severe water shortage in agriculture is reduced from 3 to 1. The drought police water level is set and matched with the corresponding wide and shallow damage scheduling rule, so that the risk of serious water shortage in the drought year can be effectively reduced.
TABLE 5 statistics of severe water shortage days (heaven) for drought police water level
Figure RE-GDA0003794322490000151
With the above description of the specific embodiment, compared with the prior art, the method for determining the dry alarm water levels of the reservoirs with different adjusting capacities provided by the invention has the following advantages:
according to the control periods of two levels of the scheduling period and the guarantee period, the initial water level of the first month of each guarantee period in the scheduling period is obtained by adopting a two-layer reverse order recursion algorithm and is used as the dry alarm water level of each guarantee period, the risk of serious water shortage in the dry year can be effectively reduced, and scientific basis and technical support are provided for optimal scheduling of reservoir drought resistance.
Finally, it should also be noted that the terms "comprises," "comprising," or any other variation thereof, as used herein, are intended to cover a non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises a list of elements does not include only those elements but may include other elements not expressly listed or inherent to such process, method, article, or apparatus. Without further limitation, an element defined by the phrase "comprising a" \8230; "does not exclude the presence of additional like elements in a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises the element.
The present invention is not limited to the above-mentioned preferred embodiments, and any structural changes made under the teaching of the present invention shall fall within the scope of the present invention, which is similar or similar to the technical solutions of the present invention.

Claims (6)

1. A method for determining the drought alarm water level of reservoirs with different adjusting capacities is characterized by comprising the following steps:
determining a dispatching period T of a reservoir and control periods of two levels of guarantee periods Pi of each month i in the dispatching period T according to actual management requirements; wherein, the dispatching period T refers to the dispatching cycle of the reservoir, and the guarantee period of the ith month is Pi month;
determining the water demand of the arid years according to the water incoming storage series of the arid years, and taking the product of the water demand of each industry under the normal year and the drought adjustment coefficient as the socioeconomic water demand for determining the water level of the drought police;
the monthly drought warning water level of the reservoir is obtained by recursion of the internal and external two layers of reverse orders of the dispatching period and the guarantee period according to a reservoir water level-reservoir capacity relation function, social and economic water demand, reservoir discharge ecological water demand, reservoir design incoming water quantity, reservoir evaporation and leakage loss water quantity and reservoir upper limit reservoir capacity by taking the end-of-term water level of the guarantee period corresponding to each month as an initial value;
the method for obtaining the monthly drought police water level of the reservoir by recursion of the internal and external two-layer negative sequence of the scheduling period and the guarantee period comprises the following steps:
setting the guarantee period of water supply of ith month in the scheduling period T as Pi month, and setting j as jth month in the guarantee period;
performing outer-layer recursion from the 1 st month to the last month in the scheduling period, and performing inner-layer recursion from the last month to the first month in the guarantee period of each month to obtain the early month water level of the first month in the guarantee period as the month drought alarm water level;
wherein, the end water level of the last month in the guarantee period Pi of the ith month just reaches the reservoir dead water level W0 to be used as an initial value of the reverse order calculation;
performing inner-layer reverse order recursion calculation according to the following formula to obtain the water storage capacity corresponding to the beginning of the ith month
Figure FDA0003980172700000011
I.e. drought police water quantity W of month i hx,i ；
Figure FDA0003980172700000012
Figure FDA0003980172700000013
Drought police water level of month i is Z hx,i ＝f(W hx,i )；
In the formula: w i j The initial monthly water storage capacity of the reservoir at the jth month in the guarantee period of the ith month; w hx,i The drought policeman water yield in the ith month; z hx,i The drought police water level in month i;
Figure FDA0003980172700000021
respectively the j month in the guarantee period of the i monthThe social and economic water demand, the ecological water demand for leakage, the evaporation leakage amount and the designed water supply amount; w limit The upper limit storage capacity of the reservoir is set; w0 is the dead storage capacity of the reservoir; f (x) is a reservoir water level-reservoir capacity relation function;
judging whether the inner layer recursion end condition is met or not according to the comparison result of j and 1;
judging whether an outer layer recursion ending condition is met or not according to a comparison result of the current i and the scheduling period T;
wherein, when the drought grade is mild drought, the drought adjustment coefficient of the domestic water demand is 0.90-0.95, the drought adjustment coefficient of the industrial water demand is 0.90-0.95, and the drought adjustment coefficient of the irrigation water demand is more than or equal to 0.70; when the drought grade is severe drought, the drought adjustment coefficient of the domestic water demand is less than or equal to 0.70, the drought adjustment coefficient of the industrial water demand is less than or equal to 0.70, and the drought adjustment coefficient of the irrigation water demand is less than or equal to 0.20.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the arid year is a general arid year or a very arid year, the general arid year being a 75% of the frequency of the incoming water and the very arid year being a 95% of the frequency of the incoming water.
3. The method according to claim 1, wherein the adjustment of the drought police water level of the reservoir for many years is performed by setting a scheduling period according to a historically appearing cross-year drought scene or setting the scheduling period T to T = int (interest-making storage capacity/design water supply) x 12 months.
4. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that the multi-year schedule period is divided into two phases of year 1 and years 2 to N; for the 2 nd to N th years, carrying out annual year-by-year reverse order recursion calculation to obtain the water amount of the last month and the end of the 1 st year; on the basis, the 1 st year is subjected to monthly reverse order recursion calculation according to annual scheduling reservoirs to obtain the drought police water level for coping with N-year continuous drought.
5. The method of claim 4, wherein the scheduling period is N years,calculating to obtain the required water storage quantity W 'at the end of the 1 st year according to the following formula' 1end ；
Figure FDA0003980172700000022
In the formula: w' 1end The water amount is the water amount required at the end of 1 year; w s,i Water is needed for socioeconomic water of the ith year; w e,i The ecological water demand for the reservoir discharge in the ith year of the reservoir; w Q,i Designing the inflow amount of the reservoir of the ith year; w loss,i The water loss caused by evaporation and leakage in the ith year of the reservoir; w limit The method comprises the following steps of (1) setting upper limit storage capacity of a reservoir, wherein the flood season is the storage capacity corresponding to the flood limit, and the non-flood season is the storage capacity corresponding to the normal water storage level of the reservoir; w 0 The dead storage capacity.
6. The method of claim 1, further comprising the step of performing reservoir scheduling control during a drought-resistant period based on a drought police water level: and when the water level of the reservoir is lower than the drought alarm water level, starting drought-resistant scheduling, and taking the product of the water demand of each industry and the drought adjustment coefficient under the normal year as the water supply amount during drought-resistant scheduling.
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