CN115034544A - Fishery disaster risk assessment method and system suitable for offshore seawater pond culture - Google Patents
Fishery disaster risk assessment method and system suitable for offshore seawater pond culture Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a fishery disaster risk assessment method and system suitable for near-shore seawater pond culture. The method is based on the open sea hydrodynamic factors and the wind speed and combines the coastal embankment to carry out evaluation on the damage risk of the seawater pond culture facilities, and firstly, the area range of an evaluation object, basic geographic information of the evaluation area and the like are obtained; performing hydrodynamic calculation, including outer sea hydrodynamic calculation and inner sea hydrodynamic calculation, wherein storm surge water damming elevation and seawall wave climbing height are used as outer sea hydrodynamic elements, and pool stem storm water damming surface elevation and wave climbing height are used as inner water hydrodynamic elements of the culture pond; and finally, evaluating the risk hidden danger of the marine facility fishery disaster and compiling a report according to the calculated out-sea hydrodynamic factors and the hydrodynamic factors in the aquaculture pond. The method establishes a quantitative relation based on the factors of the disaster of the open sea and the factors of the disaster of the interior of the aquaculture pond, and can provide basis for pre-disaster safety evaluation, in-disaster risk early warning and post-disaster damage evaluation of the aquaculture pond.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of ocean engineering disaster prevention and reduction, in particular to a method and a system for evaluating potential risks of fishery disasters of ocean facilities suitable for offshore seawater pond culture.
Background
The pond has large difference in disaster resisting capability, the whole technical level of the industry is low, and the damage caused by the influence of ocean disasters is serious every year. A complete marine facility fishery disaster risk potential risk assessment technical regulation does not exist in the industry, so that the response and pertinence of marine facility fishery disaster-affected measures are not strong every year, and the economic losses of farmers and breeding enterprises are further increased.
Disclosure of Invention
The purpose of the invention is as follows: aiming at the technical problems, the invention aims to provide a method and a system for evaluating the potential hazards of fishery disaster risks of marine facilities for offshore pond culture, which can establish a quantitative relationship based on the disaster factors of the open sea and the disaster factors inside the culture pond and carry out evaluation of the potential hazards of the disaster risks of the marine pond culture facilities.
The technical scheme is as follows: in order to achieve the purpose, the invention adopts the following technical scheme:
a fishery disaster risk assessment method suitable for near-shore seawater pond culture is used for assessing damage risks of seawater pond culture facilities based on open seawater power factors and wind speed in combination with a coastal dike, and comprises the following steps:
step 1, obtaining an evaluation object area range, basic geographic information of an evaluation area, design parameters of an open sea embankment, the geometric dimension and the water depth of an aquaculture pond and ocean forecast information;
step 2, performing hydrodynamic force calculation, including outer sea hydrodynamic force calculation and inner sea hydrodynamic force calculation of the aquaculture pond, taking storm surge damming elevation and seawall wave climbing height as outer sea hydrodynamic elements, and taking pool stem storm surge damming surface elevation and wave climbing height as inner sea hydrodynamic elements of the aquaculture pond;
and 3, evaluating the risk potential of the marine facility fishery disaster according to the calculated out-sea hydrodynamic elements and the hydrodynamic elements in the aquaculture pond.
Preferably, if the storm surge early warning level of the evaluation area is smaller than the design water level of the open sea damp dike, the pond culture is not influenced by the open sea hydrodynamic process, and the open sea hydrodynamic calculation is not carried out; and if the storm surge early warning level of the assessment area reaches or exceeds the design water level of the seaside damp-proof bank, calculating the storm surge damming water and the wave climbing height of the damp-proof bank of the seaside of the assessment area.
Preferably, the forecast results issued by the national marine environment forecast center are adopted for the damming of open sea waves and storm tides.
Preferably, the calculation mode of the wave climbing height on the damp dike is the same as that of the wave climbing height on the pond peduncle, and the specific calculation is as follows:
(1) under the direct action of wind, the wave climbing height of the forward incoming wave on a single slope is determined according to the following requirements:
when the slope ratio m is 1.5-5.0 and H/L is more than or equal to 0.025, calculating according to the following formula:
m＝cotα
wherein: r P Climbing (m) for waves with cumulative frequency P; k Δ Roughness coefficient of the slope; k V Is an empirical coefficient; k P Is represented by R P A climbing accumulation frequency conversion coefficient of the average climbing ratio; alpha is slope toe (°); h is the average wave height (m) of the waves in front of the dike; l is the average wavelength (m) of the waves in front of the bank;
when m is less than or equal to 1.0 and H/L is more than or equal to 0.025, the formula is as follows:
R p ＝K Δ K V K P R 0 H
wherein: r 0 Under the condition of no wind, the smooth and impervious protective surface has a climbing value (m) when H is 1 m;
when 1.0< m <1.5, the values calculated for m 1.0 and m 1.5 are interpolated. In addition, when H/L is less than 0.025, the wave climbing height is small, and the influence of disasters is ignored.
(2) Compound slope with platformThe wave climbing height of the dike is determined by the reduced slope rate m e The rate of reclination is m e Determining its climbing height, where the slope rate m is converted e Calculated according to the following formula:
when Δ m is equal to (m) Lower part -m Upper part of ) When the value is 0:
when Δ m > 0:
when Δ m < 0:
wherein: m is On the upper part The slope rate is the slope rate above the platform; m is Lower part The slope rate is the slope below the platform; d w Taking a positive value when the platform is below a still water level as the platform water depth; taking a negative value when the platform is above a still water level; | d w I represents taking the absolute value (m) of the platform water depth; b is the land width (m).
(3) The wave direction line of the incoming wave forms an angle beta with the normal line of the axis of the embankment, and the wave climbing height calculated according to (1) or (2) is multiplied by an angle conversion coefficient K β 。
Preferably, the hydrodynamic calculation in the aquaculture pond further comprises an effective wave height and an effective period: the effective wave height and the effective period in the aquaculture pond under the action of wind are calculated according to the following formula:
effective wave height:
the effective period is as follows:
wherein: h s Is the effective wave height (m); g is gravity acceleration (m/s) 2 ) (ii) a U is the average wind speed (m/s) at 10m height above the sea surface; f is the length (m) of the pond, and d is the average water depth (m) of the pond; t is s The period(s) of the effective wave.
Preferably, the elevation of the storm water surface on the pond stem is calculated according to the following formula:
wherein: e is the elevation (m) of the storm surface; k is the comprehensive friction coefficient; g is gravity acceleration (m/s) 2 ) (ii) a U is the average wind speed (m/s) at 10m height above the sea surface; f is the pond length (m); d is the average pond water depth (m).
Preferably, the following evaluation risk level is determined according to the calculation result of step 3:
high risk zone: the height of the dammed water in the open sea and the wave height exceed the design standard of the damp-proof dike in the open sea;
the area of stroke risk: the stem of the seawater pond of 30 mu hears up the water surface and the wave climbing height exceeds the top elevation by 0.5m, or the stem of the seawater pond of 50 mu hears up the water surface and the wave climbing height exceeds the top elevation by 0.6m, or the stem of the seawater pond of 100 mu hears up the water surface and the wave climbing height exceeds the top elevation by 0.8m, or the stem of the seawater pond of 300 mu hears up the water surface and the wave climbing height exceeds the top elevation by 1.2 m;
low risk zone: the stem of the seawater pond of 30 mu hears up the water surface and the wave climbing height exceeds the top elevation by 0.23m, or the stem of the seawater pond of 50 mu hears up the water surface and the wave climbing height exceeds the top elevation by 0.32m, or the stem of the seawater pond of 100 mu hears up the water surface and the wave climbing height exceeds the top elevation by 0.46m, or the stem of the seawater pond of 300 mu hears up the water surface and the wave climbing height exceeds the top elevation by 0.73 m.
Preferably, based on the risk assessment result, dividing the disaster-suffered risk area of the seawater pond culture, and generating a seawater pond culture risk assessment report; the text content of the evaluation report comprises evaluation area general profiles, seawater pond general profiles, hydrodynamic factor calculation results, seawater pond culture disaster risk evaluation and countermeasures and suggestions.
A fishery disaster risk assessment system suitable for near shore seawater pond culture, the system for assessing risk of seawater pond culture facility damage based on open seawater dynamic factors and wind speed in combination with a coastal bank, comprising:
the information acquisition module is used for acquiring the range of an evaluation object area, basic geographic information of the evaluation area, design parameters of an open sea embankment, the geometric dimension and the water depth of the aquaculture pond and ocean forecast information;
the hydrodynamic force calculation module is used for performing hydrodynamic force calculation, including outer sea hydrodynamic force calculation and inner sea hydrodynamic force calculation of the aquaculture pond, taking storm surge height and seawall wave climbing height as outer sea hydrodynamic elements, and taking pool stem storm surge surface height and wave climbing height as inner water dynamic elements of the aquaculture pond;
and the evaluation module is used for evaluating the risk hidden danger of the fishery disaster of the marine facility according to the calculated power factors of the open sea water and the power factors of the water in the aquaculture pond.
A computer system comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, the computer program when loaded into the processor implementing the method for fishery disaster risk assessment applicable to offshore seawater pond culture.
Has the advantages that: based on the disaster mechanism of the seawater pond culture facility, the method comprehensively considers the influence of the external seawater power and the influence of the internal water power of the culture pond, carries out risk assessment of seawater pond culture, and has scientificity; the adopted data and precision are clearly explained, so that the interference of human factors can be eliminated; the adopted technical method is verified sufficiently, and the objectivity of the method can be ensured. The method for evaluating the disaster-suffered risk of the offshore seawater pond culture facility can provide a basis for pre-disaster safety evaluation, pre-disaster risk early warning and post-disaster damage evaluation of seawater pond culture and provide technical support for culture insurance service.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a general flow diagram of an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a flow chart of hydrodynamic calculations in an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent, the present invention will be described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings in conjunction with the following detailed description. It should be understood that the description is intended to be exemplary only, and is not intended to limit the scope of the present invention. Moreover, the described embodiments are merely one embodiment of the invention, and not all embodiments.
The fishery disaster risk assessment method suitable for near-shore pond culture disclosed by the embodiment of the invention is applicable to near-shore seawater pond culture, and particularly relates to a seawater pond culture area with a coastal waterline 10-15 kilometers to one side of land or with a surface elevation smaller than an average sea level by 2 meters. As shown in fig. 1, the present invention mainly comprises the following steps:
step 1, obtaining the area range of an evaluation object, basic geographic information of the evaluation area, design parameters of an outer sea embankment, the geometric dimension and water depth of a culture pond and ocean forecast information (wave height, storm surge, water increment, astronomical tide and wind speed information and the like published by a Chinese ocean forecast network during typhoon storm surge or cold tide).
And 2, performing hydrodynamic calculation, including the calculation of the external sea hydrodynamic force and the calculation of the internal water hydrodynamic force of the aquaculture pond, taking storm surge height and the climbing height of the waves of the damp dike as the hydrodynamic elements of the external sea, and taking the windstorm surge surface height and the climbing height of the waves of the pond stem as the hydrodynamic elements of the internal water of the aquaculture pond.
And 3, evaluating the risk potential of the marine facility fishery disaster according to the calculated out-sea hydrodynamic elements and the hydrodynamic elements in the aquaculture pond.
And 4, dividing the disaster risk areas of the seawater pond culture based on the risk evaluation results, and generating a seawater pond culture risk evaluation report.
Before carrying out the process of the invention, it is first of allAnd carrying out investigation and analysis on the evaluation object, and determining the risk level. The investigation of the evaluation object is to determine the range of the evaluation area according to the risk evaluation object, and collect and arrange basic geographic information, aquaculture pond conditions, marine defense projects, hydrological meteorological elements, marine disasters and the like of the evaluation area. The geographic information mainly comprises data of the river entering the sea, the surface elevation, the water depth and the shoreline of the evaluation area, and the scale is not less than 1:1 multiplied by 10 6 . The aquaculture pond conditions comprise distribution maps of the aquaculture ponds, the plane sizes of the ponds, the water depths of the ponds, the slope ratios of pond peduncles, slope protection and the like. The sea defense engineering comprises dike line arrangement of a sea dike, design parameters of a dike body, design standards and the like. The hydrological meteorological data comprise tide level, tide, sea wave and meteorological observation data of a storm tide process such as a tide (water) level station, a marine observation station, a buoy ship forecast, a satellite altimeter and a forecast result issued by the national marine bureau nearby an assessment area.
The analysis of the evaluation object mainly aims to determine the protection standard of the open sea damp-proof dike, the plane arrangement of the aquaculture pond and the pond peduncle-slope ratio. Determining the protection standard of the open sea damp dike comprises determining the top elevation of the open sea damp dike, and determining the top elevation of the open sea damp dike with a specific design document, wherein the top elevation of the open sea damp dike is the design water level plus the top height of the dike (water level stopping plus wave climbing plus safety height); the measurement can be directly carried out without detailed design materials. The specific plane arrangement of the aquaculture pond comprises: unifying the ponds into a rectangle with the length-width ratio of 3:1, wherein the area of each pond is 30 mu, 50 mu, 100 mu and 300 mu respectively; the pond water depth is definitely d ═ 1.5m or d ═ 2.0 m; the peduncle between the ponds is in a trapezoid shape with the top height of 2.5 m. The investigation and analysis of the evaluation object are written into the evaluation report.
In the embodiment of the invention, the risk grade table is determined according to different hydrodynamic threats suffered by the seawater pond. The risk grade table is determined to be three grades: high risk zone (class I), medium risk zone (class II), and low risk zone (class III). The criteria and the disaster situation are shown in table 1.
TABLE 1 seawater Pond culture Risk level Table
Based on previous research and risks, the hydrodynamic forces involved in the embodiments of the present invention include those in open sea and aquaculture ponds. The forecast results issued by the national marine environment forecasting center are adopted for the sea wave and storm tide water accumulation. The method is divided into two cases: if the storm surge early warning level of the evaluation area is smaller than the designed water level of the open sea damp dike, the pond culture is not influenced by the open sea hydrodynamic process, and the open sea hydrodynamic calculation is not needed; and if the early warning level of the storm surge in the assessment area reaches or exceeds the designed water level of the seawall, calculating the storm surge water damming and the wave climbing height of the seawall in the assessment area. Wherein the wave climbing on the dampproof bank is specifically calculated as:
(1) under the direct action of wind, the wave climbing height of the forward incoming wave on a single slope is determined according to the following requirements:
1) when the slope rate m is 1.5-5.0 and H/L is more than or equal to 0.025, calculating according to the following formula:
m＝cotα
wherein: r P The wave run-up (m) with frequency P is accumulated; k Δ The roughness coefficient of the slope is determined according to the type of the protective surface and the table 2; k V The empirical coefficient can be determined by the dimensionless quantity U/(gd) composed of wind speed U (m/s), water depth d (m) before the dam, and gravity acceleration g (m/s2) 1/2 Determined as in table 3; k P Is represented by R P And average climb
Ratio R P /
The cumulative frequency scaling factor of the run-up of (c) can be determined as shown in table 4. For embankments not allowed to pass through waves, the accumulated frequency of climbing is suitableTaking 2 percent; for the dike which is allowed to pass the waves, corresponding protective measures are adopted according to the wave passing amount. m is the slope rate; alpha is slope toe (°); h is the average wave height (m) of the waves in front of the dike; l is the average wavelength (m) of the waves in front of the bank.
2) When m is less than or equal to 1.0 and H/L is more than or equal to 0.025, the formula is as follows:
R p ＝K Δ K V K P R 0 H
wherein: r is 0 In the absence of wind, smooth, impervious facings (K) Δ The climbing value (m) when H is 1m, and can be determined as shown in table 5.
3) When 1.0< m <1.5, it can be determined by interpolation from the calculated values of m 1.0 and m 1.5. In addition, when H/L is less than 0.025, the wave climbing height is small, and the influence of disasters is ignored.
TABLE 2 roughness coefficient K of the slope Δ
| Type of facing | K Δ |
| Smooth impervious surface (asphalt concrete, concrete) | 1.0 |
| Concrete slab | 0.95 |
| Turf | 0.90 |
| Stone masonry | 0.80 |
| Two-layer block stone (impervious dike core) | 0.60～0.65 |
| Throwing and filling two-layer stone (permeable dike core) | 0.50～0.55 |
Note: m is less than or equal to 1.0, K is taken for stone building and face protection Δ ＝1.0。
TABLE 3 empirical factor K V
| U/(gd) 1/2 | ≤1 | 1.5 | 2 | 2.5 | 3 | 3.5 | 4 | ≥5 |
| K V | 1 | 1.02 | 1.08 | 1.16 | 1.22 | 1.25 | 1.28 | 1.30 |
TABLE 4 ramp-up cumulative frequency conversion factor K P
TABLE 5R 0 Value of
| m＝cotα | 0 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| R 0 | 1.24 | 1.45 | 2.20 |
(2) The wave climbing height of the compound slope dike with the platform can be determined firstly to determine the reduced slope rate m of the section e The rate of reclination is m e The single slope section of (2) determines the climbing height of the single slope section.
Reduced slope ratio m e Calculated according to the following formula:
when Δ m is equal to (m) Lower part -m On the upper part ) When the value is 0:
when Δ m > 0:
when Δ m < 0:
wherein: m is On the upper part The slope rate is the slope rate above the platform; m is a unit of Lower part The slope rate is the slope below the platform; d w Taking a positive value when the platform is below a still water level as the platform water depth; taking a negative value when the platform is above a still water level; | d w I represents taking the absolute value (m) of the platform water depth; b is the land width (m).
(3) The wave direction line of the incoming wave forms an angle beta with the normal line of the axis of the embankment, and the wave climbing height calculated according to (1) or (2) is multiplied by a coefficient K β . When the slope rate m of the dike is less than 1, calculating according to the angle beta of 0 degree, namely neglecting the influence of the slant angle; when m is greater than or equal to 1, K β As determined in table 6.
TABLE 6 coefficient K β
| β(°) | ≤15 | 20 | 30 | 40 | 50 | 60 | 90 |
| K β | 1 | 0.96 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.6 |
The calculation of the water power in the aquaculture pond comprises the following steps:
the effective wave height and the effective period in the aquaculture pond under the action of wind are calculated according to the following formula:
effective wave height:
the effective period is as follows:
wherein: h s Effective wave height (m) and the relation between the effective wave height and the average wave height is Hs-1.61H; g is gravity acceleration (m/s) 2 ) (ii) a U is the average wind speed (m/s) at 10m height above the sea surface; f is the length (m) of the pond, and d is the average water depth (m) of the pond; t is s The effective wave period(s) has a relation Ts of 1.15T to the average period.
The elevation of the stormy waves and water surface on the pond stem is calculated according to the following formula:
wherein: e is the elevation (m) of the storm surface; k is comprehensive friction coefficient, and can be 3.6X 10 -6 (ii) a g is gravity acceleration (m/s) 2 ) (ii) a U is the average wind speed (m/s) at a height of 10m above the sea surface; f is the pond length (m); d is the average pond water depth (m).
And calculating the wave height climbing on the pond peduncle according to the wave height climbing calculation method of the open sea dampproof dike.
And finally, evaluating the cultivation risk of the evaluation area according to the seawater pond cultivation disaster risk level table and the hydrodynamic force factors. And dividing the disaster risk areas of the seawater pond culture according to the risk evaluation result, summarizing evaluation data, and compiling a seawater pond culture risk evaluation report.
The level of each area unit of the evaluation area is marked by red, orange and yellow in the disaster-suffered risk area of the seawater pond culture. The evaluation data comprises data and calculation results related to the evaluation process, such as the investigation content of the evaluation object, the analysis content of the evaluation object, the disaster risk level of seawater pond culture, hydrodynamic factors and the like.
The main chart and the format of the seawater pond culture risk assessment report are as follows:
a. cover(s)
The cover writing contents include: a report name; a name of a delegation unit; bearing unit name (stamping); the date the report was made.
b. Sealing device
The second seal should write the content package as follows: the responsible person of the bearing and buckling department; a task responsible person; a technical responsible person; a report writer; a main participant; and (5) auditing personnel.
c. Directory
It is reported that there should be a directory page, which is heavier than before the preamble.
d. Introduction to
The introduction includes the source of work, background, content, primary outcome, etc.
e. Text
The text compiling content outline of the seawater pond culture risk assessment report is as follows:
chapter 1 "assessment regional profiles", the contents include natural geographical environment profiles, mariculture profiles, marine disaster profiles, and the like.
Chapter 2, "seawater pond overview", the contents include the main seawater pond distribution range, the seawater pond plane shape, the slope ratio of pond stalks and the condition of building materials, the aquaculture activities, the arrangement of the dike lines of the open sea damp dikes, the design parameters of the dikes and the design standards.
Chapter 3, "hydrodynamic force element calculation", the contents include astronomical tide maximum tidal level, maximum flow rate, height of stagnant water, maximum wave height, embankment, range of flood land, wave height, period of stormy waves in the pond, height of stagnant water on the pond stalk, and wave height; the maximum tide level, maximum flow rate, maximum wave height, wave run-up and embankment and flood plain ranges are given in a chart form.
Chapter 4, "seawater pond culture disaster risk assessment", the contents of which include assessment method and assessment result of the culture disaster risk in the assessment area; and giving the disaster risk level of the assessment area in a chart form.
Chapter 5, "countermeasures and suggestions," the content of which includes the explanation of the specific influence of the evaluation of the disaster risk evaluation level of the breeding in the evaluation area, and the suggestion of the targeted countermeasures.
f. Back cover
The printing plate preferably has a back cover. The back cover can be used for placing the name and the address of the task undertaking unit or other related information, and can also be a blank page.
g. Report format
The report text has dimensions A4(210 mm. times.297 mm).
Based on the same inventive concept, the embodiment of the invention discloses a fishery disaster risk assessment system suitable for near-shore seawater pond culture, which comprises: the information acquisition module is used for acquiring the range of an evaluation object area, basic geographic information of the evaluation area, design parameters of an open sea embankment, the geometric dimension and the water depth of the aquaculture pond and ocean forecast information; the hydrodynamic force calculation module is used for performing hydrodynamic force calculation, comprises outer sea hydrodynamic force calculation and inner sea hydrodynamic force calculation of the culture pond, and takes storm surge backwater elevation and breakwater wave climbing height as outer sea hydrodynamic force elements and takes pool stem storm surge backwater elevation and wave climbing height as inner water dynamic elements of the culture pond; the evaluation module is used for evaluating the risk hidden danger of the fishery disaster of the marine facility according to the calculated power factors of the open sea water and the power factors of the water in the aquaculture pond; and the report compiling module is used for dividing the disaster-suffered risk area of the seawater pond culture based on the risk evaluation result and generating a seawater pond culture risk evaluation report.
Based on the same inventive concept, the embodiment of the invention discloses a computer system, which comprises a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and capable of running on the processor, wherein the computer program is loaded to the processor to realize the fishery disaster risk assessment method suitable for the offshore seawater pond culture.
It should be noted that: the foregoing detailed description of the invention is merely exemplary in nature and is not to be construed as limiting the invention. Therefore, any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement and the like made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. A fishery disaster risk assessment method suitable for near-shore seawater pond culture is characterized in that the method carries out assessment on damage risk of seawater pond culture facilities based on an open seawater power factor and wind speed in combination with a coastal dike, and comprises the following steps:
step 1, obtaining an evaluation object area range, basic geographic information of an evaluation area, design parameters of an open sea embankment, the geometric dimension and the water depth of an aquaculture pond and ocean forecast information;
step 2, performing hydrodynamic calculation, including external sea hydrodynamic calculation and internal sea hydrodynamic calculation, taking storm surge water damming elevation and seawall wave climbing height as external sea hydrodynamic elements, and taking pool stem storm water damming elevation and wave climbing height as internal sea hydrodynamic elements of the aquaculture pond;
and 3, evaluating the risk potential of the fishery disaster of the marine facility according to the calculated out-sea water dynamic elements and the calculated out-sea water dynamic elements in the aquaculture pond.
2. The fishery disaster risk assessment method suitable for offshore seawater pond culture according to claim 1, wherein if the storm surge early warning level of the assessment area is smaller than the design water level of the open sea dammed dam, the pond culture is not affected by the open sea hydrodynamic process, and the open sea hydrodynamic calculation is not performed; and if the early warning level of the storm surge in the assessment area reaches or exceeds the designed water level of the seawall, calculating the storm surge water damming and the wave climbing height of the seawall in the assessment area.
3. The fishery disaster risk assessment method suitable for offshore sea water pond culture according to claim 1, wherein the damming of open sea waves and storm tides is performed by using a forecast result issued by a national marine environment forecast center.
4. The fishery disaster risk assessment method suitable for near-shore seawater pond culture according to claim 1, wherein the wave elevation on the damp dike and the wave elevation on the pond peduncle are calculated in the same manner, specifically:
(1) under the direct action of wind, the wave climbing height of the forward incoming wave on a single slope is determined according to the following requirements:
when the slope rate m is 1.5-5.0 and H/L is more than or equal to 0.025, calculating according to the following formula:
m＝cotα
wherein: r P Climbing (m) for waves with cumulative frequency P; k Δ Is the roughness coefficient of the slope; k V Is an empirical coefficient; k P Is represented by R P A climbing accumulation frequency conversion coefficient of the average climbing ratio; alpha is slope toe (°); h is the average wave height (m) of the waves in front of the dike; l is the average wavelength (m) of the waves in front of the bank;
when m is less than or equal to 1.0 and H/L is more than or equal to 0.025, the formula is as follows:
R p ＝K Δ K V K P R 0 H
wherein: r 0 Under the condition of no wind, the smooth and impervious protective surface has a climbing value (m) when H is 1 m;
when 1.0< m <1.5, the calculated values of m 1.0 and m 1.5 are determined by interpolation;
when the H/L is less than 0.025, the wave climbing height is small, and the influence of disasters is ignored;
(2) the wave climbing height of the compound slope dike with the platform is determined first e Then according to the slope ratio of m e Determining its climbing height, where the slope rate m is converted e Calculated according to the following formula:
when Δ m is equal to (m) Lower part –m On the upper part ) When the value is 0:
when Δ m > 0:
when Δ m < 0:
wherein: m is Upper part of The slope rate is the slope rate above the platform; m is a unit of Lower part The slope rate is the slope below the platform; d w Taking a positive value when the platform is below a still water level as the platform water depth; taking a negative value when the platform is above a still water level; | d w I represents taking the absolute value (m) of the platform water depth; b is the platform width (m);
(3) the wave direction line of the incoming wave forms an angle beta with the normal line of the axis of the embankment, and the wave climbing height calculated according to (1) or (2) is multiplied by an angle conversion coefficient K β 。
5. The fishery disaster risk assessment method suitable for near-shore seawater pond culture according to claim 1, wherein the calculation of hydrodynamic force in the culture pond further comprises effective wave height and effective period: the effective wave height and the effective period in the aquaculture pond under the action of wind are calculated according to the following formula:
effective wave height:
the effective period is as follows:
wherein: h s Is the effective wave height (m); g is gravity acceleration (m/s) 2 ) (ii) a U is the average wind speed (m/s) at 10m height above the sea surface; f is the length (m) of the pond, and d is the average water depth (m) of the pond; t is s The period(s) of the effective wave.
6. The fishery disaster risk assessment method suitable for near-shore seawater pond culture according to claim 1, wherein the elevation of the storm surge surface on the pond stem is calculated according to the following formula:
wherein: e is the wind wave and water retentionAn areal elevation (m); k is the comprehensive friction coefficient; g is gravity acceleration (m/s) 2 ) (ii) a U is the average wind speed (m/s) at 10m height above the sea surface; f is the pond length (m); d is the average pond water depth (m).
7. The fishery disaster risk assessment method suitable for near-shore seawater pond culture according to claim 1, wherein the following assessment risk levels are determined according to the calculation result of step 3:
high risk zone: the height of the dammed water in the open sea and the wave height exceed the design standard of the damp-proof dike in the open sea;
the area of stroke risk: the stem of the seawater pond of 30 mu hears up the water surface and the wave climbing height exceeds the top elevation by 0.5m, or the stem of the seawater pond of 50 mu hears up the water surface and the wave climbing height exceeds the top elevation by 0.6m, or the stem of the seawater pond of 100 mu hears up the water surface and the wave climbing height exceeds the top elevation by 0.8m, or the stem of the seawater pond of 300 mu hears up the water surface and the wave climbing height exceeds the top elevation by 1.2 m;
low risk zone: the stem of the seawater pond of 30 mu hears up the water surface and the wave climbing height exceeds the top elevation by 0.23m, or the stem of the seawater pond of 50 mu hears up the water surface and the wave climbing height exceeds the top elevation by 0.32m, or the stem of the seawater pond of 100 mu hears up the water surface and the wave climbing height exceeds the top elevation by 0.46m, or the stem of the seawater pond of 300 mu hears up the water surface and the wave climbing height exceeds the top elevation by 0.73 m.
8. The fishery disaster risk assessment method suitable for near-shore seawater pond culture according to claim 1, wherein based on the risk assessment result, dividing a seawater pond culture disaster risk area to generate a seawater pond culture risk assessment report; the text content of the evaluation report comprises evaluation area general profiles, seawater pond general profiles, hydrodynamic factor calculation results, seawater pond culture disaster risk evaluation and countermeasures and suggestions.
9. A fishery disaster risk assessment system suitable for near shore seawater pond culture, the system for assessing risk of seawater pond culture facility damage based on open seawater dynamic factors and wind speed in combination with a coastal bank, comprising:
the information acquisition module is used for acquiring the range of an evaluation object area, basic geographic information of the evaluation area, design parameters of an open sea embankment, the geometric dimension and the water depth of the aquaculture pond and ocean forecast information;
the hydrodynamic force calculation module is used for performing hydrodynamic force calculation, including outer sea hydrodynamic force calculation and inner sea hydrodynamic force calculation of the aquaculture pond, taking storm surge height and seawall wave climbing height as outer sea hydrodynamic elements, and taking pool stem storm surge surface height and wave climbing height as inner water dynamic elements of the aquaculture pond;
and the evaluation module is used for evaluating the risk hidden danger of the fishery disaster of the marine facility according to the calculated power factors of the open sea water and the power factors of the water in the aquaculture pond.
10. A computer system comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, characterized in that the computer program, when loaded into the processor, implements a fishery disaster risk assessment method suitable for offshore seawater pond culture according to any one of claims 1-8.
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