CN116562611B - Sea wall surmounting risk analysis method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a seawall surging risk analysis method, which belongs to the technical field of coastal disaster prevention and comprises the following steps: acquiring surging test data and surging actual measurement data; constructing a surmounting probability distribution function of surmounting amount according to the surmounting test data; calculating the current sea wall surmounting risk value based on the surmounting probability distribution function of the surmounting amount according to the surmounting measured data; and determining the current sea wall surging risk level according to the current sea wall surging risk value. According to the invention, the overtopping risk value of the current seawall is calculated by constructing the overtopping quantity overtopping probability distribution function so as to determine the overtopping risk level of the current seawall, thereby realizing scientific and effective evaluation and analysis of the overtopping risk of the seawall.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a seawall surging risk analysis method, and belongs to the technical field of coastal disaster prevention.
Background
The amount of surging is an important concern for coastal protection. The surmounting amount refers to the amount of water which is passed over the top of the dike after the water climbs up by the wave acting on the dike. Seawalls play an important role in the protection of coastal areas against storm surge and wave attacks.
The practical investigation data and the object model test show that the excessive sea wall surmounting amount is the main reason for sea wall break in natural disasters (storm surge and wave). The magnitude of the surmounting amount directly relates to the stability and safety of the seawall structure.
However, the surging amount has a certain probability distribution (uncertainty), i.e. a non-constant value, under certain sea wall section parameters and hydrologic conditions, and an effective method is needed to evaluate the risk of surging of the sea wall.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a seawall surging risk analysis method, which is used for calculating the current seawall surging risk value by constructing a surging amount surmounting probability distribution function so as to determine the current seawall surging risk level, thereby realizing scientific and effective evaluation and analysis of the seawall surging risk.
In order to achieve the above purpose, the present invention provides the following technical solutions:
A seawall surging risk analysis method, comprising:
Acquiring surging test data and surging actual measurement data;
constructing a surmounting probability distribution function of surmounting amount according to the surmounting test data;
Calculating the current sea wall surmounting risk value based on the surmounting probability distribution function of the surmounting amount according to the surmounting measured data;
And determining the current sea wall surging risk level according to the current sea wall surging risk value.
Further, the surging test data includes: sea wall surmounting field measurement data, physical test data and numerical simulation data; the surging measured data comprises: pre-dike water level and wave data, dike section data and allowable surmounting amount.
Further, constructing a surging amount transcendental probability distribution function according to the surging test data, including:
according to the wave-crossing test data, calculating dimensionless wave-crossing amount and dimensionless sea wall superelevation;
constructing a function of the dimensionless wave-crossing quantity relative to the dimensionless seawall superelevation, and drawing a corresponding function image;
Calculating parameter values of all data points on the function image;
calculating the surging quantity of each data point to exceed a probability value according to the parameter value;
establishing a plane rectangular coordinate system, drawing a data point image by taking a parameter value of the data point as an abscissa and a surmounting probability value as an ordinate;
and fitting the data point images to obtain the surmounting probability distribution function of the surmounting wave quantity.
Further, the calculation formulas of the dimensionless wave-crossing quantity and the dimensionless sea wall superelevation are shown as formula (1):
In the formula (1), Q * is dimensionless wave-crossing quantity, Q is wave-crossing quantity, H m0 is effective wave height, L m-1,0 is effective wavelength, alpha is slope of slope outside a slope dike, g is gravity acceleration, gamma b is dike protection platform influence coefficient, R c * is dimensionless dike superelevation, R c is dike superelevation, zeta m-1,0 is wave breaking coefficient, gamma f is friction coefficient, gamma β is refractive coefficient, and gamma ν is breast wall influence coefficient;
The calculation formula of the function of the dimensionless wave-crossing quantity relative to the dimensionless sea wall superelevation is shown as a formula (2):
Q*(Rc *)＝0.023exp[-(2.7Rc *)1.3] (2)
in the formula (2), Q *(Rc *) is a function of the dimensionless wave-crossing amount relative to the dimensionless seawall superelevation, Q * is the dimensionless wave-crossing amount, and R c * is the dimensionless seawall superelevation;
the calculation formula of the parameter values of each data point on the function image is shown as formula (3):
in the formula (3), A is a parameter value corresponding to any data point, Q * is dimensionless wave-surging quantity, A function value calculated by a function Q *(Rc *) of the dimensionless wave-crossing quantity relative to the dimensionless sea wall superelevation for the dimensionless sea wall superelevation R c * which is positioned at the same data point with the dimensionless wave-crossing quantity Q *;
the calculation formula of the surging quantity exceeding the probability value of each data point is shown as formula (4):
in the formula (4), P is the overtravel quantity corresponding to any data point exceeding the probability value, N is the number of bits of the parameter value A corresponding to the data point arranged in descending order in the parameter values of all the data points, and N is the total number of all the data points;
The calculation formula of the surging quantity exceeding probability distribution function is shown as formula (5):
In the formula (5), P (A) is a surmounting probability distribution function, a and b are fitting coefficients to be determined, and A is a parameter value corresponding to any data point.
Further, according to the actual wave crossing data, calculating a current sea wall wave crossing risk value based on the wave crossing amount exceeding probability distribution function, including:
According to the wave-crossing measured data, calculating the current wave-crossing allowable quantity of the dimensionless seawall superelevation and dimensionless seawall;
Inputting the current dimensionless seawall superelevation to a function of the dimensionless wave-crossing volume relative to the dimensionless seawall superelevation so as to obtain the current dimensionless single-value wave-crossing volume;
calculating to obtain the ratio of the dimensionless allowable surging quantity to the current dimensionless single-value surging quantity;
and inputting the ratio into the surmounting probability distribution function of the surmounting amount to obtain the current sea wall surmounting risk value.
Further, the calculation formula of the current dimensionless seawall superelevation and dimensionless allowable surmounting amount is shown as a formula (6):
In the formula (6), Q * 'is dimensionless allowable surmounting quantity, Q' is allowable surmounting quantity, H 'm0 is effective wave height in surmounting actual measurement data, L' m-1,0 is effective wave length in surmounting actual measurement data, alpha 'is slope of outer slope of slope dike in surmounting actual measurement data, g is gravity acceleration, gamma' b is dike protection platform influence coefficient in surmounting actual measurement data, For the current dimensionless seawall superelevation, R ' c is the seawall superelevation in the surmounting actual measurement data, ζ ' m-1,0 is the wave breaking coefficient in the surmounting actual measurement data, gamma ' f is the friction coefficient in the surmounting actual measurement data, gamma ' β is the refraction coefficient in the surmounting actual measurement data, and gamma ' ν is the breast wall influence coefficient in the surmounting actual measurement data.
Further, determining the current sea wall surging risk level according to the current sea wall surging risk value comprises:
if the current sea wall overtopping risk value is less than 5%, determining that the current sea wall overtopping risk level is 0 level;
If the current sea wall overtopping risk value is less than 25% and is more than or equal to 5%, determining that the current sea wall overtopping risk level is1 level;
If the current sea wall overtopping risk value is less than 50% and is more than or equal to 25%, determining that the current sea wall overtopping risk level is level 2;
If the current sea wall overtopping risk value is less than 75% and is more than 50%, determining that the current sea wall overtopping risk level is 3;
If the current sea wall surging risk value is more than or equal to 75%, determining that the current sea wall surging risk level is level 4.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
According to the method for analyzing the sea wall overtopping risk, provided by the invention, the overtopping risk of the sea wall is determined by constructing the overtopping quantity overtopping probability distribution function and calculating the current sea wall overtopping risk value, so that the overtopping risk of the sea wall is scientifically and effectively estimated and analyzed, and an effective theoretical support is provided for coast disaster prevention work.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a functional image corresponding to a function of the dimensionless wave-crossing amount relative to the dimensionless sea wall superelevation provided by the embodiment of the invention;
FIG. 2 is a functional image corresponding to a surging amount exceeding probability distribution function provided by the embodiment of the invention;
FIG. 3 is a flowchart of a method for analyzing sea wall surging risk provided by an embodiment of the invention;
Fig. 4 is a graph showing the cross wave risk level distribution of the effective wave height (deep water value) and the water level condition in front of the dike within a certain range according to the embodiment of the invention.
Detailed Description
The technical scheme of the patent is further described in detail below with reference to the specific embodiments.
Embodiments of the present patent are described in detail below, examples of which are illustrated in the accompanying drawings, wherein the same or similar reference numerals refer to the same or similar elements or elements having the same or similar functions throughout. The embodiments described below by referring to the drawings are exemplary only for explaining the present patent and are not to be construed as limiting the present patent. The embodiments of the present application and technical features in the embodiments may be combined with each other without collision.
Embodiment one:
Fig. 3 is a flowchart of a method for analyzing a risk of surging a sea wall according to an embodiment of the present invention, where the flowchart merely shows a logic sequence of the method according to the present embodiment, and the steps shown or described may be performed in a different sequence from that shown in fig. 3 in other possible embodiments of the present invention without collision.
Referring to fig. 3, the method of this embodiment specifically includes the following steps:
step one: acquiring surging test data and surging actual measurement data;
The surging test data include: sea wall surmounting field measurement data, physical test data and numerical simulation data; the surging actual measurement data comprises: pre-dike water level and wave data, dike section data and allowable surmounting amount.
Step two: constructing a surmounting probability distribution function of the surmounting amount according to the surmounting test data;
according to the surging test data, constructing a surging quantity surmounting probability distribution function, comprising the following steps:
step A: according to the wave-crossing test data, calculating the dimensionless wave-crossing amount and the dimensionless sea wall superelevation;
the calculation formulas of the dimensionless wave-crossing quantity and the dimensionless seawall superelevation are shown as formula (1):
In the formula (1), Q * is dimensionless wave surmounting quantity, Q is wave surmounting quantity, H m0 is effective wave height, L m-1,0 is effective wavelength, alpha is slope of slope outside a slope dike, g is gravity acceleration, gamma b is dike protection platform influence coefficient, R c * is dimensionless dike superelevation, R c is dike superelevation, zeta m-1,0 is wave breaking coefficient, gamma f is friction coefficient, gamma β is refractive coefficient, and gamma ν is breast wall influence coefficient.
And (B) step (B): constructing a function of the dimensionless wave-crossing quantity relative to the dimensionless seawall superelevation, and drawing a corresponding function image;
The method comprises the steps that a group of data points comprising dimensionless wave-crossing quantity and dimensionless sea wall superelevation are formed by wave-crossing physical test data, are shown in the figure 1, a function of the dimensionless wave-crossing quantity relative to the dimensionless sea wall superelevation is calculated according to the dimensionless wave-crossing quantity and the dimensionless sea wall superelevation data points shown in the figure 1, and corresponding function images are drawn;
The calculation formula of the function of the dimensionless wave-crossing quantity relative to the dimensionless sea wall superelevation is shown as a formula (2):
Q*(Rc *)＝0.023exp[-(2.7Rc *)1.3] (2)
In the formula (2), Q *(Rc *) is a function of the dimensionless wave-crossing amount relative to the dimensionless seawall superelevation, Q * is the dimensionless wave-crossing amount, and R c * is the dimensionless seawall superelevation.
Step C: calculating parameter values of all data points on the function image;
the calculation formula of the parameter values of each data point on the function image is shown as formula (3):
in the formula (3), A is a parameter value corresponding to any data point, Q * is dimensionless wave-surging quantity, The function value calculated by the function Q *(Rc *) of the dimensionless wave-crossing amount relative to the dimensionless sea wall superelevation for the dimensionless sea wall superelevation R c * at the same data point as the dimensionless wave-crossing amount Q *.
Step D: calculating the surmounting probability value of the surmounting wave quantity of each data point according to the parameter value;
the calculation formula of the surging quantity exceeding the probability value of each data point is shown as formula (4):
In the formula (4), P is the overtravel exceeding probability value corresponding to any data point, N is the number of bits of the parameter value a corresponding to the data point arranged in descending order in the parameter values of all data points, and N is the total number of all data points.
Step E: establishing a plane rectangular coordinate system, taking a parameter value of a data point as an abscissa, taking a surmounting probability value as an ordinate, and drawing a data point image;
As shown in fig. 2, a plane rectangular coordinate system is established, the parameter values of the data points are taken as the abscissa, the overtopping exceeding probability values are taken as the ordinate, and a group of data point images only comprising the parameter values of all the data points and the overtopping exceeding probability values are drawn independently.
Step F: fitting the data point images to obtain a surmounting probability distribution function of the surmounting wave quantity;
the calculation formula of the surmounting probability distribution function of the surmounting wave quantity is shown as formula (5):
in the formula (5), P (A) is a surmounting probability distribution function, a and b are fitting coefficients to be determined, and A is a parameter value corresponding to any data point;
The surging amount super probability distribution function P (A) has the properties shown in the formula (7):
In the formula (7), A is a parameter value corresponding to any data point, and P is a surging amount exceeding a probability value corresponding to the data point.
Step three: according to the actual wave-surmounting data, calculating a current sea wall wave-surmounting risk value based on the wave-surmounting amount surmounting probability distribution function;
based on the surmounting probability distribution function of the surmounting amount, the current sea wall surmounting risk value is calculated, and the method comprises the following steps:
Step I: according to the actual wave-crossing data, calculating the current wave-crossing allowable quantity of the dimensionless seawall and the dimensionless seawall;
step II: inputting the current dimensionless seawall superelevation into a function of the dimensionless wave-crossing volume relative to the dimensionless seawall superelevation so as to obtain the current dimensionless single-value wave-crossing volume;
step III: calculating to obtain the ratio of the dimensionless allowable surging quantity to the current dimensionless single-value surging quantity;
step IV: inputting the ratio to a surmounting probability distribution function of the surmounting amount to obtain the current sea wall surmounting risk value;
the calculation formula of the current dimensionless seawall superelevation and dimensionless allowable surmounting amount is shown as a formula (6):
In the formula (6), Q * 'is dimensionless allowable surmounting quantity, Q' is allowable surmounting quantity, H 'm0 is effective wave height in surmounting actual measurement data, L' m-1,0 is effective wave length in surmounting actual measurement data, alpha 'is slope of outer slope of slope dike in surmounting actual measurement data, g is gravity acceleration, gamma' b is dike protection platform influence coefficient in surmounting actual measurement data, For the current dimensionless seawall superelevation, R ' c is the seawall superelevation in the surmounting actual measurement data, ζ ' m-1,0 is the wave breaking coefficient in the surmounting actual measurement data, gamma ' f is the friction coefficient in the surmounting actual measurement data, gamma ' β is the refraction coefficient in the surmounting actual measurement data, and gamma ' ν is the breast wall influence coefficient in the surmounting actual measurement data.
Step four: determining the current sea wall surging risk level according to the current sea wall surging risk value;
according to the current sea wall overtopping risk value, determining the current sea wall overtopping risk level, comprising the following steps:
Step ①: if the current sea wall overtopping risk value is less than 5%, determining that the current sea wall overtopping risk level is 0 level;
Step ②: if the current sea wall overtopping risk value is less than 25% and is more than or equal to 5%, determining that the current sea wall overtopping risk level is 1 level;
step ③: if the current sea wall overtopping risk value is less than 50% and is more than or equal to 25%, determining that the current sea wall overtopping risk level is level 2;
Step ④: if the current sea wall overtopping risk value is less than 75% and is more than 50%, determining that the current sea wall overtopping risk level is 3;
Step ⑤: if the current sea wall overtopping risk value is more than or equal to 75%, determining that the current sea wall overtopping risk level is level 4;
the distribution of the wave-crossing risk level under the conditions of the effective wave height (deep water value) and the water level in front of the embankment within a certain range is shown in fig. 4.
According to the seawall surging risk analysis method, the surging amount surmounting probability distribution function is constructed, the current seawall surging risk value is calculated, and the current seawall surging risk level is determined, so that the seawall surging risk is scientifically and effectively estimated and analyzed, and an effective theoretical support is provided for coastal disaster prevention work.
The foregoing is merely a preferred embodiment of the present invention, and it should be noted that modifications and variations could be made by those skilled in the art without departing from the technical principles of the present invention, and such modifications and variations should also be regarded as being within the scope of the invention.
Claims (4)
1. A seawall surging risk analysis method, comprising:
Acquiring surging test data and surging actual measurement data;
constructing a surmounting probability distribution function of surmounting amount according to the surmounting test data;
Calculating the current sea wall surmounting risk value based on the surmounting probability distribution function of the surmounting amount according to the surmounting measured data;
determining the current sea wall surging risk level according to the current sea wall surging risk value;
constructing a surmounting probability distribution function of the surmounting amount according to the surmounting test data, wherein the surmounting probability distribution function comprises the following steps:
according to the wave-crossing test data, calculating dimensionless wave-crossing amount and dimensionless sea wall superelevation;
constructing a function of the dimensionless wave-crossing quantity relative to the dimensionless seawall superelevation, and drawing a corresponding function image;
Calculating parameter values of all data points on the function image;
calculating the surging quantity of each data point to exceed a probability value according to the parameter value;
establishing a plane rectangular coordinate system, drawing a data point image by taking a parameter value of the data point as an abscissa and a surmounting probability value as an ordinate;
Fitting the data point images to obtain a surmounting probability distribution function of the surmounting wave quantity;
The calculation formulas of the dimensionless wave-crossing quantity and the dimensionless sea wall superelevation are shown as formula (1):
In the formula (1), Q * is dimensionless wave-crossing quantity, Q is wave-crossing quantity, H m0 is effective wave height, L m-1,0 is effective wavelength, alpha is slope of slope outside a slope dike, g is gravity acceleration, gamma b is dike protection platform influence coefficient, R c * is dimensionless dike superelevation, R c is dike superelevation, zeta m-1,0 is wave breaking coefficient, gamma f is friction coefficient, gamma β is refractive coefficient, and gamma v is breast wall influence coefficient;
The calculation formula of the function of the dimensionless wave-crossing quantity relative to the dimensionless sea wall superelevation is shown as a formula (2):
Q*(Rc *)＝0.023exp[-(2.7Rc *)1.3] (2)
in the formula (2), Q *(Rc *) is a function of the dimensionless wave-crossing amount relative to the dimensionless seawall superelevation, Q * is the dimensionless wave-crossing amount, and R c * is the dimensionless seawall superelevation;
the calculation formula of the parameter values of each data point on the function image is shown as formula (3):
in the formula (3), A is a parameter value corresponding to any data point, Q * is dimensionless wave-surging quantity, A function value calculated by a function Q *(Rc *) of the dimensionless wave-crossing quantity relative to the dimensionless sea wall superelevation for the dimensionless sea wall superelevation R c * which is positioned at the same data point with the dimensionless wave-crossing quantity Q *;
the calculation formula of the surging quantity exceeding the probability value of each data point is shown as formula (4):
in the formula (4), P is the overtravel quantity corresponding to any data point exceeding the probability value, N is the number of bits of the parameter value A corresponding to the data point arranged in descending order in the parameter values of all the data points, and N is the total number of all the data points;
The calculation formula of the surging quantity exceeding probability distribution function is shown as formula (5):
in the formula (5), P (A) is a surmounting probability distribution function, a and b are fitting coefficients to be determined, and A is a parameter value corresponding to any data point;
According to the actual wave crossing data, calculating a current sea wall wave crossing risk value based on the wave crossing amount exceeding probability distribution function, wherein the method comprises the following steps:
According to the wave-crossing measured data, calculating the current wave-crossing allowable quantity of the dimensionless seawall superelevation and dimensionless seawall;
Inputting the current dimensionless seawall superelevation to a function of the dimensionless wave-crossing volume relative to the dimensionless seawall superelevation so as to obtain the current dimensionless single-value wave-crossing volume;
calculating to obtain the ratio of the dimensionless allowable surging quantity to the current dimensionless single-value surging quantity;
and inputting the ratio into the surmounting probability distribution function of the surmounting amount to obtain the current sea wall surmounting risk value.
2. The seawall surging risk analysis method according to claim 1, wherein the surging test data comprises: sea wall surmounting field measurement data, physical test data and numerical simulation data; the surging measured data comprises: pre-dike water level and wave data, dike section data and allowable surmounting amount.
3. The seawall surging risk analysis method according to claim 1, wherein the calculation formula of the current dimensionless seawall superelevation and dimensionless allowable surging amount is shown as formula (6):
In the formula (6), Q * 'is dimensionless allowable surmounting quantity, Q' is allowable surmounting quantity, H 'm0 is effective wave height in surmounting actual measurement data, L' m-1,0 is effective wave length in surmounting actual measurement data, alpha 'is slope of outer slope of slope dike in surmounting actual measurement data, g is gravity acceleration, gamma' b is dike protection platform influence coefficient in surmounting actual measurement data, For the current dimensionless seawall superelevation, R ' c is the seawall superelevation in the surmounting actual measurement data, ζ ' m-1,0 is the wave breaking coefficient in the surmounting actual measurement data, gamma ' f is the friction coefficient in the surmounting actual measurement data, gamma ' β is the refraction coefficient in the surmounting actual measurement data, and gamma ' v is the breast wall influence coefficient in the surmounting actual measurement data.
4. The seawall surging risk analysis method according to claim 1, wherein determining a current seawall surging risk level according to the current seawall surging risk value comprises:
if the current sea wall overtopping risk value is less than 5%, determining that the current sea wall overtopping risk level is 0 level;
If the current sea wall overtopping risk value is less than 25% and is more than or equal to 5%, determining that the current sea wall overtopping risk level is1 level;
If the current sea wall overtopping risk value is less than 50% and is more than or equal to 25%, determining that the current sea wall overtopping risk level is level 2;
If the current sea wall overtopping risk value is less than 75% and is more than 50%, determining that the current sea wall overtopping risk level is 3;
If the current sea wall surging risk value is more than or equal to 75%, determining that the current sea wall surging risk level is level 4.
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| CN104156525A (en) * | 2014-08-05 | 2014-11-19 | 天津大学 | Method for improving storm surge disaster risk predication accuracy |
| CN115034544A (en) * | 2022-04-19 | 2022-09-09 | 河海大学 | Fishery disaster risk assessment method and system suitable for offshore seawater pond culture |
| CN115115269A (en) * | 2022-07-19 | 2022-09-27 | 天津大学 | Identification and control method for associated risks of river and lake water system communication |
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| CN104156525A (en) * | 2014-08-05 | 2014-11-19 | 天津大学 | Method for improving storm surge disaster risk predication accuracy |
| CN115034544A (en) * | 2022-04-19 | 2022-09-09 | 河海大学 | Fishery disaster risk assessment method and system suitable for offshore seawater pond culture |
| CN115115269A (en) * | 2022-07-19 | 2022-09-27 | 天津大学 | Identification and control method for associated risks of river and lake water system communication |
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