CN114297744A - Method for calculating structural health degree probability of power transmission tower - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for calculating the structural health degree probability of a power transmission tower, which comprises the following steps of; step one, selecting a health degree evaluation index of a power transmission tower; step two, evaluating an index evaluation standard; thirdly, calculating the relative weight of the evaluation index; step four, calculating the comprehensive health degree score of the power transmission tower; fifthly, calculating the health probability of the power transmission iron tower; and sixthly, outputting the health degree grade and the health degree probability of the power transmission tower, selecting the health degree evaluation index of the power transmission tower, and selecting the material, main material bending, iron tower inclined deformation, member stress and structural connection of the iron tower as evaluation items of the health degree of the iron tower. According to the method, the structure health degree grade of the power transmission iron tower is evaluated, meanwhile, the probability of the corresponding health grade is calculated, the uncertainty of factors influencing the health degree of the iron tower is fully considered, and important reference information is provided for scientifically and reasonably formulating the operation and maintenance scheme of the iron tower.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of power transmission line safety assessment, in particular to a power transmission tower structure health degree probability calculation method.
Background
The power transmission iron tower is used as an important supporting structure of the overhead power transmission line, the bearing performance of the power transmission iron tower plays an important role in safe and stable operation of the power transmission line, the power transmission iron tower is easily influenced by various uncertain factors such as various meteorological factors, topography and landform and the like after being used in the field for a long time, so that the problems of bolt connection looseness, node corrosion, component deformation and the like can be caused, even serious accidents such as iron tower deformation, tower collapse and the like can be induced, social production and daily life are seriously influenced, the structural health degree of the power transmission iron tower is evaluated, guidance is provided for operation and maintenance work of the power transmission iron tower, and the power transmission iron tower is an effective way for avoiding accidents,
the health degree of the power transmission iron tower is influenced by various factors, including iron tower materials, main material bending, inclined deformation, member stress, structural connection and the like, and the factors have certain uncertainty, so that the evaluation on the health degree of the power transmission iron tower can be directly influenced, and the establishment of an operation maintenance scheme and the planning of economic cost of the power transmission iron tower are more scientific.
Therefore, the method for calculating the structural health degree probability of the power transmission tower is provided for solving the problems.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a method for calculating the structural health degree probability of a power transmission iron tower, which is used for evaluating the structural health degree grade of the power transmission iron tower, calculating the probability of the corresponding health degree, namely the health degree probability, fully considering the uncertainty of factors influencing the health degree of the iron tower and providing important reference information for scientifically and reasonably formulating an iron tower operation and maintenance scheme.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention provides the following technical scheme:
a method for calculating the structural health degree probability of a power transmission tower comprises the following steps; step one, selecting a health degree evaluation index of a power transmission tower; step two, evaluating indexes; thirdly, calculating the relative weight of the evaluation index; step four, calculating the comprehensive health degree score of the power transmission tower; fifthly, calculating the health degree probability of the power transmission iron tower; and step six, outputting the health degree grade and the health degree probability of the power transmission tower.
In a further embodiment, the evaluation index of the health degree of the power transmission tower is selected according to the influence factors of the structural performance of the power transmission tower, and the evaluation items of the health degree of the power transmission tower are selected from the materials, the bending of main materials, the inclined deformation of the power transmission tower, the stress of components and the structural connection of the power transmission tower.
In a further embodiment, the evaluation indexes of the health degree of the power transmission tower select and establish evaluation standards of various health degree grades.
In a further embodiment, the evaluation index determines a description form of uncertainty of the evaluation index of the health degree of the power transmission tower and determines a calculation expression method of uncertainty characteristics. For the uncertainty factor expression method, the uncertainty delta is introduced to describe, and the statistical characteristics of the evaluation indexes are obtained according to the uncertainty factor sources of the evaluation indexes.
In a further embodiment, each evaluation index has different uncertainty sources, and the uncertainty sources of main material stress and iron tower inclination deflection are random loads acting on the power transmission iron tower.
In a further embodiment, the uncertainty of the main material bending of the evaluation index mainly comes from product production and engineering installation, and the uncertainty of construction, link and material mainly comes from a regular inspection method.
In a further embodiment, the calculating the relative weight of the evaluation index uses statistical data to obtain the relative weight of each evaluation index by a standard deviation method and an analytic hierarchy process.
In a further embodiment, the comprehensive relative weight w of the evaluation index of the health degree of the power transmission tower is obtained by the calculation of the relative weight of the evaluation index and the utilization of a combined weighting method based on the game theory.
In a further embodiment, the power transmission tower health degree probability calculation calculates a power transmission tower health degree index score to be evaluated according to the uncertainty characteristics in the step two.
In a further embodiment, the evaluation index is used for the uncertainty caused by production and installation by collecting the statistical characteristics of the bending degree quality of the main material as the statistical characteristics of the index, and for the uncertainty caused by the inspection method, by collecting the statistical characteristics of the occurrence frequency of the event as the statistical characteristics of the index.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
according to the method, the structure health degree grade of the power transmission iron tower is evaluated, meanwhile, the corresponding health degree probability is calculated, the uncertainty of factors influencing the health degree of the iron tower is fully considered, and important reference information is provided for scientifically and reasonably formulating the operation and maintenance scheme of the iron tower.
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FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a flow chart of the evaluation method of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In the description of the present invention, it is to be understood that the terms "center", "longitudinal", "lateral", "up", "down", "front", "back", "left", "right", "vertical", "horizontal", "top", "bottom", "inner", "outer", and the like, indicate orientations or positional relationships based on those shown in the drawings, and are used only for convenience in describing the present invention and for simplicity in description, and do not indicate or imply that the referenced devices or elements must have a particular orientation, be constructed and operated in a particular orientation, and thus, are not to be construed as limiting the present invention. Furthermore, the terms "first", "second", etc. are used for descriptive purposes only and are not to be construed as indicating or implying relative importance or implicitly indicating the number of technical features indicated. Thus, a feature defined as "first," "second," etc. may explicitly or implicitly include one or more of that feature. In the description of the present invention, "a plurality" means two or more unless otherwise specified.
In the description of the present invention, it should be noted that, unless otherwise explicitly specified or limited, the terms "mounted," "connected," and "connected" are to be construed broadly, e.g., as meaning either a fixed connection, a removable connection, or an integral connection; can be mechanically or electrically connected; they may be connected directly or indirectly through intervening media, or they may be interconnected between two elements. The specific meaning of the above terms in the present invention can be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art through specific situations.
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Example 1
Referring to fig. 1-2, in an embodiment of the present invention, a method for calculating a structural health probability of a power transmission tower includes the following steps; the method comprises the following steps of firstly, selecting the health degree evaluation indexes of the power transmission iron tower: selecting a proper evaluation index of the health degree of the power transmission tower according to the influence factors for evaluating the structural performance health degree of the power transmission tower; step two, evaluating indexes; step three, calculating the relative weight of the evaluation index: the influence degrees of different evaluation indexes on the health degree of the power transmission tower are different, and the influence degrees of different evaluation indexes on the health degree of the power transmission tower are described by calculating the relative weights of the evaluation indexes; step four, calculating the comprehensive health degree score of the power transmission tower: calculating a comprehensive health degree score of the power transmission tower according to the relative weight of the evaluation indexes and the evaluation index score of the power transmission tower to be evaluated; fifthly, calculating the health degree probability of the power transmission tower: because the evaluation index has uncertainty, the description of the health degree of the power transmission tower is not only the health degree grade, but also has corresponding health degree probability, so the health probability of the power transmission tower needs to be calculated; and step six, outputting the health degree grade and the health degree probability of the power transmission tower. Selecting the evaluation indexes of the health degree of the power transmission iron tower, selecting the materials, main material bending, iron tower inclined deformation, member stress and structural connection of the iron tower as evaluation items of the health degree of the iron tower, establishing evaluation standards of various health degree grades, and referring to the provisions of the State evaluation guide of overhead power transmission lines for the evaluation standards of various evaluation items, wherein the evaluation standards are shown in the following table;
table 1 evaluation index scoring table for health degree of power transmission tower
The evaluation indexes determine the description form of the uncertainty of the evaluation indexes of the health degree of the power transmission tower and determine the calculation expression method of the uncertainty characteristics, each evaluation index of the evaluation indexes has different uncertainty sources, the uncertainty of stress of main materials and inclination (including deflection) of the iron tower is caused by the randomness of loads acting on the power transmission iron tower, the uncertainty of bending of the main materials mainly comes from product production and engineering installation, the uncertainty of construction, linkage and material mainly comes from a regular inspection method, the evaluation index containing uncertainty needs to obtain the uncertainty characteristics through a large amount of data statistics, for the uncertainty caused by the load randomness, the uncertainty is described by the uncertainty delta and the ratio k of the average value to the standard value, and the statistical characteristics of the load can be obtained as the statistical characteristics of the load effect:
δ＝σ/μ(1)
where σ represents the variance of the randomness index and μ represents the mean of the randomness index.
For the uncertainty caused by production and installation, collecting the bending degree quality statistical characteristics of the main material as the statistical characteristics of the index; and for the uncertainty caused by the routing inspection method, collecting the statistical characteristics of the occurrence frequency of the event as the statistical characteristics of the index. The uncertainty characteristics of the health degree evaluation indexes of the power transmission towers are shown in table 2;
TABLE 2 evaluation index uncertainty characteristics
Calculating the relative weight of the evaluation indexes, obtaining the relative weight of each evaluation index through a standard deviation method and an analytic hierarchy process, and obtaining the comprehensive relative weight of the evaluation indexes of the health degree of the power transmission tower through a combined weighting method based on a game theory:
w＝(w1,…,wm) (2)
wherein, wiThe weighted value of each evaluation index is the ith;
taking the stress evaluation index of the main material as an example, the evaluation values are as follows:
the evaluation index scoring vector of the health degree of the power transmission tower to be evaluated by the power transmission tower is as follows:
q＝(q1,…,qm) (4)
wherein q isiThe weighted value of each evaluation index is the ith;
calculating the comprehensive health degree score of the power transmission tower according to the formula 4, and combining the health degree grade division standard of the power transmission tower formulated according to the overhead power transmission line operation and maintenance management regulation to be shown in a table 2;
Q＝q·wT (5)
table 2 grade standard for health of power transmission tower
The data storage unit has the function of temporarily storing the monitoring data, and the data transmission unit has the function of remotely transmitting the monitoring data;
and (3) calculating the health degree probability of the power transmission tower according to the characteristics of uncertainty in the step two, and calculating the health degree grade probability p (h) corresponding to the health degree index score Q of the power transmission tower to be evaluated:
wherein p isilScoring q for the ith evaluation indexiH is the power transmission tower health degree grade corresponding to the power transmission tower health degree comprehensive score Q;
and calculating the health degree probability of the power transmission iron tower. The health probability calculation model may be expressed as:
P(Hk)＝∑p(h＝k)(k＝1,…,4) (7)
wherein, P (H)k) A total probability with a health level k, i.e., a health probability, which is a health index score Q of all power transmission towers with a health level h ═ kSum of the health level probabilities.
And outputting the health degree grade and the health degree probability of the power transmission tower.
Example 2
Referring to fig. 1-2, for a 500kV transmission tower, the health of the tower under the condition of strong wind of 31m/s is evaluated, and the stress of each rod is calculated by using a finite element method:
step 1: selecting the evaluation indexes of the health degree of the power transmission tower, selecting the stress, bending, inclined deformation, structure and connection and material of a main material of the power transmission tower as the evaluation indexes of the health degree of the power transmission tower, and forming a evaluation index rating table of the health degree of the power transmission tower as shown in table 1 by referring to the regulation of the overhead power transmission line state evaluation guide rule;
step 2: determining a description form of uncertainty of the evaluation index of the health degree of the power transmission tower, and determining a calculation expression method of uncertainty characteristics;
according to the uncertain source analysis result of the evaluation indexes of the health degree of the power transmission tower, the uncertain characteristics of the evaluation indexes are obtained through statistics as follows:
and step 3: and calculating the relative weight of the evaluation index.
Obtaining the relative weight of each evaluation index by using statistical data through a standard deviation method and an analytic hierarchy process, and obtaining the comprehensive relative weight of the evaluation index of the health degree of the power transmission tower by using a combined weighting method based on a game theory:
establishing an index judgment matrix by using an analytic hierarchy process according to expert experience:
the relative weight of the evaluation indexes of the health degree of the power transmission tower is obtained as follows:
w1＝(0.4609,0.1883,0.1880,0.1118,0.0510) (2)
according to a standard deviation method, calculating the relative weight of each evaluation item of the power transmission tower by utilizing statistical data in a power transmission tower fault statistical table:
w2＝(0.2043,0.1049,0.1969,0.1969,0.1969) (3)
statistical data of evaluation indexes of power transmission tower
Obtaining the comprehensive relative weight of the evaluation index of the health degree of the power transmission tower by a combined weighting method based on game theory:
w＝(0.4801,0.1909,0.1680,0.0803,0.0104) (4)
and 4, step 4: and (4) calculating the comprehensive health degree score of the power transmission tower.
Since the evaluation index is a random variable subject to normal distribution or poisson distribution, the evaluation index score for the power transmission tower is not a determined score value but a score value with corresponding probability, for the power transmission tower in the example, taking the stress evaluation index of the main material as an example, the score value is as follows:
similarly, other evaluation index scores and corresponding probabilities can be obtained, and a power transmission tower health degree score vector q is formed (q is equal to q)1,…,q5) And according to the formula Q ═ Q · wTCalculating a comprehensive health degree score of the power transmission tower;
and 5: calculating the health degree probability of the power transmission iron tower;
according to the characteristics of uncertainty in the step 2, firstly, the health degree grade probability p (h) corresponding to the health degree index score Q of the power transmission tower to be evaluated is calculated:
wherein p isilScoring the ith evaluation indexqiH is the grade of the health degree of the power transmission tower corresponding to the health degree comprehensive score Q of the power transmission tower, and h takes the values of 1,2,3 and 4. For example, for the principal material stress, l may take the values 40, 32, 0;
calculating the health probability P (H) of the power transmission towerk). The health probability calculation model may be expressed as:
P(Hk)＝∑p(h＝k)(k＝1,…,4) (7)
wherein, P (H)k) The health degree grade is represented as k, namely the health degree probability, and the value of the health degree probability is the sum of the health degree grade probabilities corresponding to all the health degree index scores Q of the power transmission towers with the health degree grade h being k;
step 6: outputting the health degree grade and the health degree grade probability of the power transmission iron tower;
the obtained health degree grade and health degree probability of the power transmission tower are as follows:
it will be evident to those skilled in the art that the invention is not limited to the details of the foregoing illustrative embodiments, and that the present invention may be embodied in other specific forms without departing from the spirit or essential attributes thereof. The present embodiments are therefore to be considered in all respects as illustrative and not restrictive, the scope of the invention being indicated by the appended claims rather than by the foregoing description, and all changes which come within the meaning and range of equivalency of the claims are therefore intended to be embraced therein. Any reference sign in a claim should not be construed as limiting the claim concerned.
Furthermore, it should be understood that although the present description refers to embodiments, not every embodiment may contain only a single embodiment, and such description is for clarity only, and those skilled in the art should integrate the description, and the embodiments may be combined as appropriate to form other embodiments understood by those skilled in the art.
Claims (9)
1. A method for calculating the structural health degree probability of a power transmission tower is characterized by comprising the following steps;
determining the health degree evaluation index of the power transmission iron tower, wherein the index is the material, main material bending, iron tower inclined deformation, member stress and structural connection of the iron tower;
determining evaluation standards of the health degree evaluation indexes, wherein the standards comprise evaluation index grading standards and transmission tower health degree grade division standards, the evaluation index grading standards are used for describing the states of the evaluation indexes, the transmission tower health degree grade division standards are used for describing the transmission tower health degree grades, and the grade determination depends on the comprehensive evaluation conditions of the transmission tower health degree;
calculating the relative weight of the evaluation index by using data statistics and a standard deviation method;
step four, calculating the comprehensive health degree score Q of the power transmission tower as q.w according to the relative weight w of the evaluation indexes and the corresponding scores Q of the evaluation indexesTWherein q is the corresponding score of the evaluation index, w is the relative weight of the evaluation index, and T is the matrix transposition;
step five, calculating a model according to the health degree probability:
and P (H)k) Calculating the health degree grade and the health degree probability of the power transmission tower (h ═ k) (k ═ 1, …, 4); wherein p (h) is the health degree grade probability corresponding to the iron tower health degree index score Q, pilScoring q for the ith evaluation indexiH is the power transmission tower health degree grade corresponding to the power transmission tower health degree comprehensive score Q; p (H)k) And the health degree probability is the sum of the health degree grade probabilities corresponding to all the health degree index scores Q of the power transmission towers with the health degree grade h being k.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the evaluation index of the health degree of the power transmission tower is based on evaluation of each health degree level.
3. The method for calculating the structural health probability of the power transmission tower according to claim 1, wherein the evaluation index is an evaluation index for determining the structural health of the power transmission tower, and a calculation expression method for determining characteristics is used.
4. The method according to claim 1, wherein each of the evaluation indexes has a different uncertainty source, and the uncertainty sources for the main material stress and the iron tower inclination indicate that the load of the iron tower has randomness.
5. The method for calculating the structural health probability of the power transmission tower according to claim 1, wherein uncertainty of bending of the evaluation index main material comes from production and engineering installation, and uncertainty of construction, linkage and material comes from a regular inspection method.
6. The method for calculating the structural health degree probability of the power transmission tower according to claim 1, wherein the calculating the relative weight of the evaluation index specifically comprises: and obtaining each evaluation index by using statistical data through a standard deviation method and an analytic hierarchy process.
7. The method for calculating the probability of the structural health degree of the power transmission tower according to claim 1, wherein after the relative weight of the evaluation index is calculated, the comprehensive relative weight of the evaluation index of the structural health degree of the power transmission tower is obtained by using a combined weighting method based on a game theory.
8. The method for calculating the power transmission tower structure health degree probability according to claim 1, wherein the power transmission tower health probability calculation calculates a power transmission tower health degree index score to be evaluated according to the uncertainty characteristics in the step two.
9. The method according to claim 1, wherein the evaluation index is used for the uncertainty caused by production and installation, and is obtained by collecting a statistical characteristic of the bending degree quality of the main material, wherein the statistical characteristic is described by uncertainty δ and a ratio of a mean value to a standard value, δ ═ σ/μ, wherein σ represents a variance of the randomness index, and μ represents a mean value of the randomness index.
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