CN112884363A - Nuclear power project economic evaluation probability risk analysis method - Google Patents
Nuclear power project economic evaluation probability risk analysis method Download PDFInfo
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- CN112884363A CN112884363A CN202110296153.5A CN202110296153A CN112884363A CN 112884363 A CN112884363 A CN 112884363A CN 202110296153 A CN202110296153 A CN 202110296153A CN 112884363 A CN112884363 A CN 112884363A
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- 238000011234 economic evaluation Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 54
- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 29
- 238000012502 risk assessment Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 10
- 238000000342 Monte Carlo simulation Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 5
- 238000005070 sampling Methods 0.000 claims description 9
- 238000004364 calculation method Methods 0.000 claims description 7
- 238000011084 recovery Methods 0.000 claims description 6
- 230000005611 electricity Effects 0.000 claims description 3
- 239000003758 nuclear fuel Substances 0.000 claims description 3
- 230000001186 cumulative effect Effects 0.000 claims description 2
- 238000010276 construction Methods 0.000 abstract description 7
- 238000004458 analytical method Methods 0.000 abstract description 3
- 238000011156 evaluation Methods 0.000 description 2
- 230000009286 beneficial effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000005315 distribution function Methods 0.000 description 1
- 239000000446 fuel Substances 0.000 description 1
- PCHJSUWPFVWCPO-UHFFFAOYSA-N gold Chemical compound [Au] PCHJSUWPFVWCPO-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 description 1
- 239000010931 gold Substances 0.000 description 1
- 229910052737 gold Inorganic materials 0.000 description 1
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Abstract
The invention relates to the field of nuclear power, in particular to a nuclear power project economic evaluation probability risk analysis method, which takes a nuclear power plant construction project economic evaluation method as a basic model and takes a financial analysis common profitability index as an economic evaluation index; selecting typical probability distribution of the engineering construction project as probability distribution of risk factors; calculating an economic evaluation index by adopting a Monte Carlo simulation method; the probability distribution of the economic evaluation indexes and the probability distribution of the risk factors are closely related through a financial analysis method of a nuclear power plant construction project; compared with the prior art, the method changes the original economic evaluation with a single parameter and a single result, presents the economic evaluation result with the combined action of multiple risk factors, and provides support for investment decision of nuclear power projects more comprehensively.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of nuclear power, in particular to a nuclear power project economic evaluation probability risk analysis method.
Background
The economic evaluation method of nuclear power plant construction project (NB/T20048-. In the prior art, only an economic evaluation method of a nuclear power project is provided from a leveling perspective, or only a calculation method is provided for the fuel cost of the nuclear power project, but no risk analysis method for the economic evaluation of the nuclear power project is provided.
Generally speaking, most of data adopted by economic evaluation of a nuclear power plant construction project come from prediction and estimation, and have a certain degree of uncertainty, so that the risk possibly born by the project can be estimated for analyzing the influence of the change of the adopted main data on an evaluation index, risk analysis can be performed, and early warning of the project risk and corresponding countermeasures are provided to provide references for investment decision.
Accordingly, there remains a need in the art for improvements.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to solve the problem that the prior art lacks a scheme for analyzing the economic risk of a nuclear power project.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention adopts the following technical scheme:
the invention provides a nuclear power project economic evaluation probability risk analysis method which is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
1) determining an economic evaluation index;
2) determining risk factors corresponding to the economic evaluation indexes;
3) setting probability distribution for the risk factors;
4) extracting values of a group of risk factors from the probability distribution of the risk factors by adopting a random sampling method;
5) calculating the economic evaluation index result based on the value of the risk factor extracted in the step 4);
6) repeating the step 4) and the step 5) until the preset sampling times are reached;
7) drawing probability distribution and cumulative probability distribution maps of the economic evaluation index results according to all the economic evaluation index results calculated in the step 5);
8) and setting an economic evaluation index according to the risk bearing capacity.
Further, the economic evaluation index in step 1) includes one or more of project investment finance internal rate of return, project investment finance net present value and project investment recovery period.
Further, the risk factors in step 2) include one or more of construction investment, load factor, price of electricity sold and price of nuclear fuel.
Further, the probability distribution manner in step 3) includes a triangular distribution and a normal distribution.
Further, the random sampling method in step 4) includes a monte carlo simulation method.
Further, the calculation method of the economic evaluation index in the step 5) includes:
wherein CI is cash inflow, CItThe cash inflow in the t year, CO is the cash inflow, COtThe cash flow in the T-th year, n is the project calculation age limit, and T is the accumulated net cash flow in each yearThe first year of positive or zero gold flow, the internal profitability of the project investment in terms of FIRR, the net present financial value in terms of FNPV, and PtIs the investment recovery period.
The invention has the beneficial effects that: risk probability analysis is carried out on economic evaluation of a nuclear power project based on a Monte Carlo simulation method, so that a nuclear power project investor can clearly know the possibility of economic evaluation indexes under different risk factors according to risk evaluation index probability distribution, the original economic evaluation with a single parameter and a single result is changed, the economic evaluation result under the combined action of multiple risk factors is presented, and support is provided for investment decision of the nuclear power project more comprehensively.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method provided by the present invention;
fig. 2 is a probability distribution and an accumulated probability distribution map of the economic evaluation index provided by the present invention, where KDE represents a kernel density function of the internal profitability of the capital fund in the economic evaluation index, PDF represents a probability density function of the internal profitability of the capital fund in the economic evaluation index, and CDF represents an accumulated distribution function of the internal profitability of the capital fund in the economic evaluation index.
Detailed Description
The present invention will be described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples. It is to be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative of the invention and are not limiting of the invention. It should be further noted that, for the convenience of description, only some of the structures related to the present invention are shown in the drawings, not all of the structures.
As shown in FIG. 1, the invention provides a nuclear power project economic evaluation probability risk analysis method, which is characterized by comprising the following steps:
1) determining an economic evaluation index;
2) determining risk factors corresponding to the economic evaluation indexes;
3) setting probability distribution for the risk factors;
4) extracting values of a group of risk factors from the probability distribution of the risk factors by adopting a random sampling method;
5) calculating the economic evaluation index result based on the value of the risk factor extracted in the step 4);
6) repeating the step 4) and the step 5) until the preset sampling times are reached;
7) drawing a probability distribution and an accumulative probability distribution map of the economic evaluation index results according to all the economic evaluation index results calculated in the step 5), and particularly referring to fig. 2;
8) and setting an economic evaluation index according to the risk bearing capacity.
Further, the economic evaluation index in step 1) includes one or more of project investment finance internal rate of return, project investment finance net present value and project investment recovery period.
Further, the risk factors in step 2) include one or more of construction investment, load factor, price of electricity sold and price of nuclear fuel.
Further, the probability distribution manner in step 3) includes a triangular distribution and a normal distribution.
Further, the random sampling method in step 4) includes a monte carlo simulation method.
Further, the calculation method of the economic evaluation index in the step 5) includes:
wherein CI is cash inflow, CItThe cash inflow in the t year, CO is the cash inflow, COtThe cash flow in the T-th year, n is the project calculation age limit, T is the year of the first positive value or zero of the accumulated net cash flow in each year,FIRR is the project investment internal profitability, FNPV is the financial net present value, PtIs the investment recovery period.
It is to be noted that the foregoing is only illustrative of the preferred embodiments of the present invention and the technical principles employed. It will be understood by those skilled in the art that the present invention is not limited to the particular embodiments described herein, but is capable of various obvious changes, rearrangements and substitutions as will now become apparent to those skilled in the art without departing from the scope of the invention. Therefore, although the present invention has been described in greater detail by the above embodiments, the present invention is not limited to the above embodiments, and may include other equivalent embodiments without departing from the spirit of the present invention, and the scope of the present invention is determined by the scope of the appended claims.
Claims (6)
1. A nuclear power project economic evaluation probability risk analysis method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
1) determining an economic evaluation index;
2) determining risk factors corresponding to the economic evaluation indexes;
3) setting probability distribution for the risk factors;
4) extracting values of a group of risk factors from the probability distribution of the risk factors by adopting a random sampling method;
5) calculating the economic evaluation index result based on the value of the risk factor extracted in the step 4);
6) repeating the step 4) and the step 5) until the preset sampling times are reached;
7) drawing probability distribution and cumulative probability distribution maps of the economic evaluation index results according to all the economic evaluation index results calculated in the step 5);
8) and setting an economic evaluation index according to the risk bearing capacity.
2. The method for probability risk analysis of economic evaluation of nuclear power project according to claim 1, wherein the economic evaluation index in step 1) includes one or more of project investment financial internal rate of return, project investment financial net present value, and project investment recovery period.
3. The method for analyzing the probabilistic risk of economic evaluation of a nuclear power project according to claim 1, wherein the risk factors in the step 2) include one or more of a build investment, a load factor, a price of electricity sold, and a price of nuclear fuel.
4. The method for analyzing the probability risk of economic evaluation of the nuclear power project according to claim 1, wherein the probability distribution in the step 3) includes triangular distribution and normal distribution.
5. The method for analyzing the probabilistic risk of economic evaluation of a nuclear power project according to claim 1, wherein the random sampling method in the step 4) includes a monte carlo simulation method.
6. The method for analyzing the probability risk of economic evaluation of the nuclear power project according to claim 2, wherein the calculation mode of the economic evaluation index in the step 5) comprises the following steps:
wherein CI is cash inflow, CItThe cash inflow in the t year, CO is the cash inflow, COtThe cash flow in the T year, n is the calculation year of the project, T is the year of the first positive or zero accumulated net cash flow in each year, FIRR is the internal income rate of the project investment, and FNPV is the net financial present value，PtIs the investment recovery period.
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| CN202110296153.5A CN112884363A (en) | 2021-03-19 | 2021-03-19 | Nuclear power project economic evaluation probability risk analysis method |
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Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN114297744A (en) * | 2021-11-25 | 2022-04-08 | 国网河北省电力有限公司保定供电分公司 | Method for calculating structural health degree probability of power transmission tower |
| CN115423051A (en) * | 2022-11-04 | 2022-12-02 | 长春工程学院 | Power inspection data mining, equipment state classification and risk prediction system and method |
-
2021
- 2021-03-19 CN CN202110296153.5A patent/CN112884363A/en active Pending
Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN114297744A (en) * | 2021-11-25 | 2022-04-08 | 国网河北省电力有限公司保定供电分公司 | Method for calculating structural health degree probability of power transmission tower |
| CN115423051A (en) * | 2022-11-04 | 2022-12-02 | 长春工程学院 | Power inspection data mining, equipment state classification and risk prediction system and method |
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Address after: No. 29 Hong Cao Road, Xuhui District, Shanghai Applicant after: Shanghai Nuclear Engineering Research and Design Institute Co.,Ltd. Address before: No. 29 Hong Cao Road, Xuhui District, Shanghai Applicant before: SHANGHAI NUCLEAR ENGINEERING RESEARCH & DESIGN INSTITUTE Co.,Ltd. |
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Application publication date: 20210601 |