CN114219133A - Bottom-up load prediction method for power distribution network with plot as unit - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a bottom-up load prediction method of a power distribution network taking a plot as a unit, which can realize load prediction and load distribution taking the plot as a basic unit by four steps of current equipment load distribution, plot current load statistics, planning annual plot load prediction and planning annual equipment load distribution, and achieves the purposes that (1) near-middle-term load prediction and space load prediction are unified and the time and space distribution of the load is intuitively predicted; (2) the method solves the problem of feeder load prediction in the planning year so as to adapt to the technology of fine requirements of electrical calculation under the new situation of the construction of a novel power distribution system; the method solves the problems that the current power grid planning lacks the space distribution of load by a load forecasting method in the near-middle period, can not meet the requirement that the electrical calculation of a novel power distribution system is increasingly refined, and can not forecast the load by the conventional natural growth and a large user method in planning years by changing or newly generating a line.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the field of power distribution networks of power systems, and particularly relates to a bottom-up load prediction method of a power distribution network with a land block as a unit.
Background
The load prediction is a key link of power distribution network planning, and the traditional load prediction methods comprise a natural growth plus large user method, a time series method, a production value unit consumption method, a per-capita load density method, a production value unit consumption method, a space load density method and the like. The former five methods need sufficient historical data and are suitable for regional near-middle-term load prediction, and the space load density method is suitable for load saturation year prediction of a power supply grid. Under the background of vigorous construction of a novel power distribution system, more scientific and accurate load prediction needs to be carried out, and the requirement of electrical calculation of a power distribution network is met. The traditional load prediction method cannot meet the requirement, and has the following problems:
(1) the near-intermediate load prediction of the region level and the space load prediction of the power supply grid level cannot be effectively connected, the near-intermediate load prediction method lacks the space distribution of the load, and the space load prediction method predicts the saturated year load and lacks the time distribution of the load;
(2) the load prediction result can be used for regional power balance, but the load cannot be distributed to specific power distribution facilities such as distribution transformers and feeders, and the requirement that the electrical calculation of a novel power distribution system is refined day by day cannot be supported.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above technical problems in the related art, the present invention provides a bottom-up load prediction method for a power distribution network based on a block as a unit, which can overcome the above disadvantages in the prior art. In order to achieve the technical purpose, the technical scheme of the invention is realized as follows:
the invention provides a bottom-up load forecasting and load distributing method taking a plot as a unit, which comprises the following steps of current equipment load distribution, plot current load statistics, planning annual plot load forecasting and planning annual equipment load distribution:
step 1 status quo equipment load distribution
Firstly, judging distribution transformation information of a distribution network geographical wiring diagram, and if the distribution transformation information is drawn on a block of the distribution network geographical wiring diagram, calculating by using distribution transformation loads in the block; if the distribution network geographical wiring diagram does not draw the distribution transformer or only draws part of the distribution transformer, distributing the feeder line load to the line, distributing the difference value of the sum of the feeder line load and the subordinate distribution transformer load to the line crossing the land by using the spatial relation of the line and the land, and calculating by using the load of the land crossing line;
1) the intra-block distribution transformation load calculation formula is that the intra-block distribution transformation load is the maximum load of the collected load distribution transformation in the sigma blocks plus the maximum load of the non-collected load distribution transformation in the sigma blocks; the maximum load of the load distribution transformer collected in the plot is the maximum load of the distribution transformer directly collected by the information collection system; the maximum load of the non-collected load distribution transformer in the block is the distribution transformer load rate of the medium-voltage feeder line to which the non-collected load distribution transformer capacity belongs; the load ratio of the medium-voltage feeder line distribution transformer is the typical daily maximum load of the feeder line/the capacity of the feeder line distribution transformer is 100 percent;
2) the block cross line load calculation formula is the block cross line load ═ Σ (i line load crossing the block/i line cross block number); the line is a component of a feeder line and refers to a multi-segment line in a distribution network geographical wiring diagram; the line and the plot are crossed, namely, the line of the feeder line on the graph and the plot have a crossing relation, and the line is considered as the power supply of the crossed plot; the ith line load (the typical daily maximum load of the corresponding feeder line, the maximum load with load distribution and transformation under the feeder line, and the no-load distribution and transformation load under the feeder line)/the number of the feeder lines is included; and the number of crossed landmasses of the ith line is the total number of crossed landmasses of the ith line, and the crossed line is assumed to supply power to the landmasses.
Step 2 status quo plot load statistics
1) The current load estimation of the land parcel is based on the current load estimation of the land parcel by taking the land parcel as a basic unit, the current load estimation method of the land parcel supports various quality graphic data, the current load of the land parcel can be relatively reasonably estimated, and the algorithm is the current annual load of the land parcel, namely the intra-land distribution variable load and the load of a cross line of the land parcel;
2) counting the load density and the saturation coefficient of the saturated plots, wherein after the current annual load of the plots is estimated, the load density and the saturation coefficient of each plot are counted by using the development year and the load data of the plots; the statistical process is as follows: firstly, calculating the load growth rate of the plot in each year in history, and if the load growth rate is less than 2%, determining the plot as the saturated plot; then, analyzing the load density of the saturated land parcel according to different land properties, calculating the load density by an algorithm of sigma (the saturated load of the land parcel of the type/the area of the land parcel)/the total number of the land parcel of the type, and calculating the saturation coefficient statistics of the land parcels of different development years of each type of the land parcel by sigma (the land parcel saturation coefficient of the land parcel of the type, the saturated load value of the land parcel of the ith year of development)/the total number of the land parcels of the ith year of development according to different land properties, land parcel development years and land parcel loads on the basis of the saturated land parcel loads;
3) the natural growth rate statistics is based on the historical annual load of the plot, and the algorithm for calculating the natural growth rate of the load in the region where the plot is located in the last five years is that the natural growth rate of the load in the region where the plot is located is [ (the current annual load in the region/the regional load 5 years before the current year) ^0.2-1 ]. 100%.
Step 3 planning year block load prediction
1) The algorithm of the method for predicting the load of the near-middle-term land mass is that the load of the near-middle-term land mass is equal to the current year load of the land mass (1+ natural growth rate) ^ (planning i year-current year) + the recent customer installation load in the land mass, and the natural growth rate is the natural growth rate value of the power supply unit in the step 2 of the statistics of the land mass; the recent customer installation load in the plot is the customer saturation load and the saturation coefficient of the customer in the ith year; wherein, the saturated load of the customer is the load density of the newly added building area; the saturation coefficient of the client in the ith year is taken from the saturation coefficient statistics of the land property of the client in the saturated land block statistics in the step 2;
2) the algorithm of the method for predicting the saturated annual block load is that the saturated annual load prediction adopts a space load density method, the prediction is carried out from bottom to top by taking the block as a basic unit, and the saturated annual load prediction algorithm of the block, the power supply unit and the power supply grid is the block saturated annual load, namely the block area, volume rate and load density (wherein the load densities with different land use properties are taken from the saturated block load density value in the saturated block statistics in the step 2).
Step 4 planning annual equipment load distribution
The load distribution is to distribute the load of the plot in the planning year (near middle and saturation years) to the line and distribution transformer, and to obtain the load of the feeder line by summarization, which is the basic work of the electric calculation;
1) the algorithm for predicting the distribution transformer load is that the planned annual distribution transformer load is the distribution transformer current load (1+ natural growth rate) ^ (planned annual-current year), and the natural growth rate is taken from the natural growth rate value of the distribution transformer current unit in the saturated block statistics in the step 2;
2) the algorithm for line load distribution is as follows:
firstly, calculating the residual load of the plot as the residual load of the plot in the current year, namely the plot load-distribution load;
when the plot has a newly-added cross line in the planning year, the newly-added cross line is distributed according to a cross line load distribution base value, and the algorithm is that the cross line load base value is equal to the remaining load of the plot/the number of cross lines;
when the load of the original cross line exists, the algorithm is the distribution coefficient of the original line for the load of a certain original cross line (the residual load of the block-the number of newly added lines and the base value of the load of the cross line);
3) and a feeder line load distribution algorithm, wherein after load distribution is carried out on each block according to the method, lines and distribution transformers are gathered according to the affiliated feeder lines to obtain feeder line loads in a planning year, and the algorithm is that the load of a certain feeder line in the planning year is sigma-the load of the ith line of the feeder line in the planning year plus sigma-the load of the jth distribution transformer under the feeder line in the planning year.
The technical scheme can achieve the aims that (1) near-medium-term load prediction and space load prediction are unified, and the time and space distribution of the load is intuitively predicted; (2) the method solves the problem of feeder load prediction in the planning year so as to adapt to the technology of fine requirements of electrical calculation under the new situation of the construction of a novel power distribution system; the technical effects that the current power grid planning lacks the space distribution of load by a load forecasting method in the near-middle period, the requirement that the electrical calculation of a novel power distribution system is increasingly refined cannot be met, and the line is changed or is newly generated, and the load cannot be fed and forecasted by a conventional natural growth and large user method in the planning year are solved.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings needed in the embodiments will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious for those skilled in the art to obtain other drawings without creative efforts.
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a bottom-up load prediction method for a power distribution network in blocks
Fig. 2 embodiment 2 overview of grid ledger and geographical wiring diagram
Detailed Description
The technical solution of the present invention will be described clearly and completely with reference to fig. 1 of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, rather than all of the embodiments; all other embodiments, which can be derived from the embodiments of the present invention by a person of ordinary skill in the art, are within the scope of the present invention; the embodiment of the invention is as follows: a bottom-up load prediction method of a power distribution network taking a land block as a unit can be applied to load prediction and load distribution of the power distribution network, and the specific embodiment of the invention is explained as follows:
the general view of the power grid account and the geographical wiring diagram is shown in figure 2, and the current year is 2020; a residential plot is provided, the floor area is 12 ten thousand square meters, the volume ratio is 3.0, and the planned building area is 36 ten thousand square meters; the current situation of the land is supplied with power by two lines; the Huaneng line: the current load of the feeder line is 2000kW, and the comprehensive load rate of the distribution transformer is 40%; a power grid geographical wiring diagram is used for drawing a distribution transformer 2, wherein the variable load of the Hada cell is 600kW, and the distribution transformer load is not collected in a seven-day hotel; the lines supply power to the residential plots and the left plots, and 3 lines crossed with the plots are provided; hengda line: the current load of the feeder line is 1500kW, and the comprehensive load rate of the distribution transformer is 38%; distribution transformation is not drawn on the power grid geographical wiring diagram; the lines supply power to the residential plots and the plots on the lower sides, and 2 lines are arranged to cross the plots.
Step 1 status quo equipment load distribution
Step 2, current block load statistics
1) Current load estimation of land mass
The current load of the residential block is ═ sigma in-block distribution load plus-sigma block cross line load ═ huanen line distribution load plus-huanen line cross line 1 load plus-huanen line cross line 2 load plus-constantly-arriving first cross line 1 load ═ 800+400+400+750 ═ 2350 kW;
2) load density statistics of land mass
Estimating the loads of other residential plots by the same calculation method, calculating the natural growth rate of the load of each residential plot, and selecting the residential plots with the natural growth rate less than 2 percent as saturated plots; and calculating the load density of the saturated land block according to the following formula: the plot load density is the current annual load/(plot floor area volume fraction); calculating the average value of the load density of each saturated residential plot to obtain the load density of the residential plot property of 20W/m 2;
3) saturation coefficient statistics of land mass
The saturation factor of the living plots in the 1 st year of development is ∑ (in the saturated living plots, the load of 1 year is sent out/the saturated load value of the plot)/the total number of the saturated plots; obtaining the saturation coefficient of the residential plots in the first year to be 0.15 by using the formula; by the same method, the saturation coefficient in the second year is 0.35, the saturation coefficient in the 3 rd year is 0.55, the saturation coefficient in the 4 th year is 0.8, and the saturation coefficient in the 5 th year is 1;
4) statistics of natural growth rate of land mass
And (3) counting the natural load growth rate of the region where the land parcel is located, wherein the calculation formula is as follows: the natural growth rate of the load in the area where the land parcel is located is [ [ current year load in the area/load in the area 5 years before the current year ] ^0.2-1 ]. 100%, and the natural growth rate of the area where the residential land parcel is located is calculated to be 5%.
Step 3 planning year block load prediction
1) Near-mid term block load prediction
The load of the residential plot in 2020 is 2350kW, and in 2021, electricity customers are newly added to the plot, and the newly developed building area is 5 ten thousand square meters; the load prediction is carried out by adopting a natural growth plus large user method, and the calculation formula is as follows: planning the block load of the ith year as the block load of the current year (1+ 5%) (i years-current year) + the saturation load of the big user as the saturation coefficient of the ith year; wherein: the saturated load of the large user is the load density of the residential block and the newly developed building area, and the near-medium load prediction result of the block is obtained, and is shown in the following table:
| year of year | Naturally increasing load | Large user saturation load | Coefficient of saturation | Large user load | Aggregate of land mass loads |
| 2020 | 2350 | - | - | - | 2350 |
| 2021 | 2468 | 1000 | 0.15 | 150 | 2618 |
| 2022 | 2591 | 1000 | 0.3 | 300 | 2891 |
| 2023 | 2720 | 1000 | 0.55 | 550 | 3270 |
| 2024 | 2856 | 1000 | 0.8 | 800 | 3656 |
| 2025 | 2999 | 1000 | 1 | 1000 | 3999 |
2) Prediction of land mass load in saturation year
The load density method is adopted for load prediction in the saturation year, and the calculation formula is as follows: the saturated annual load of the plots is plot area volume rate load density, and the saturated load of the residential plots is obtained to be 7200 kW.
Step 4 planning annual equipment load distribution
After forecasting the plot loads in each year, distributing the plot loads to power distribution equipment by using the geographic spatial relationship between the plots and a planned annual power grid so as to be used for planning annual electrical calculation; the 2023 year is taken as an example for explanation, the power grid graph is not changed in 2023 year, and the Huaneng line and the Hengda line are still supplied with power by two loops of feeder lines; the land load is increased to 3270kW in 2023;
1) load prediction of distribution transformers, wherein the load of two distribution transformers in a land block is increased from 800kW in 2020 to 926kW in 2023 according to 5% natural increase;
2) distributing the crossed line load, wherein the residual load of the land block is equal to the load of the land block in the current year and the distributed load is equal to 2344 kW; and distributing the residual load of the land parcel to a cross line, wherein the calculation formula is as follows: the load base value of the cross line is equal to the residual load of the land parcel/the number of the cross lines, the newly added line is calculated according to the load base value of the cross line, and the load calculation formula of the original cross line is as follows: the load of a certain original cross line (residual load of a block-number of newly added lines and base value of the load of the cross line) and the distribution coefficient of the original line; wherein, a certain original line distribution coefficient is the load of the ith cross line in the current load/Σ current year, in this example, no new cross line is added in the 2023-year residential block, and the original cross line load in the block is calculated as shown in the following table:
the Huaneng cross line 3 in the right block and the Hengda cross line 2 in the lower block are calculated by the same algorithm to obtain: the load of the Huaneng cross line 3 in 2023 is 700kW, and the load of the Hengda cross line 3 is 898 kW;
3) feeder load distribution, wherein the load of a 2023-year-old energy line feeder is 2836kW (total load of Huanen cross line 1+ Huanen cross line 2 + Huanen cross line 3 + distribution load) is 605+605+700+ 926; in 2023, the load of the Hengda first feeder line is 1134+898 is 2032 kW.
To sum up, with the help of the above technical solution of the present invention, the load of the feeder line is distributed to its subordinate distribution transformer and the line crossing the land block under the feeder line through the current equipment load distribution of step 1; counting the current plot load through step 2, estimating the current plot load by utilizing the spatial inclusion relationship between the plot and the distribution transformer and the spatial cross relationship between the plot and the line, and counting the load density, the saturation coefficient and the natural growth rate index by taking the estimation data of the historical years as the basis; planning year and block load prediction through the step 3, wherein the year and block load prediction comprises near-medium term load prediction and saturated year load prediction, and the prediction is carried out by respectively adopting a natural growth plus large user method and a load density method on the basis of current load statistics; the load distribution distributes the load to distribution transformers and feeders according to the spatial relationship between the plots and the distribution facilities so as to adapt to the requirements of electrical calculation; the method achieves the technical effects that the load prediction from bottom to top by taking the plot as a basic unit is realized, the near-medium-term load prediction and the space load prediction are unified through data such as development years, saturation coefficients and the like of various plots with different land properties in the historical years, the time and space distribution of the load are intuitively predicted, the load is distributed to distribution equipment such as distribution transformers and feeders according to the space relation between the plot and distribution facilities, the difficult problem of feeder load prediction in the planning year is solved, and the fine requirement of electrical calculation under the new trend of novel distribution system construction is met.
The present invention is not limited to the above-mentioned preferred embodiments, and any other products in various forms can be obtained by anyone with the teaching of the present invention, but any changes in the method and the technical solutions which are the same or similar to the present application fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. A bottom-up load prediction method of a power distribution network with a land block as a unit is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step S1 distributing the current equipment load, including distribution load in the land and cross line load in the land;
step S2 is a block status load statistic, including: estimating the current load of the land, counting the saturation coefficient, counting the load density and counting the natural growth rate; the current load estimation algorithm of the land is as follows: the current year load of the land is = the load of distribution and transformation in the land + the load of a cross line of the land; calculating the load growth rate of the plot in each year in history, and if the load growth rate is less than 2%, determining that the plot is a saturated plot; the statistical algorithm of the saturation coefficient is as follows: a certain land type, a saturation coefficient of the plot in the i-th year of development = Σ (this type, a certain plot load in the i-th year of development/a saturation load value of the plot)/a certain land type, a total number of plots in the i-th year of development; the load density statistical algorithm is that the load density of a certain land type saturated plot = Σ (saturated load of the certain land type/plot area)/the total number of the land type plots; the natural growth rate statistical algorithm is that the natural growth rate of the load of the region where the plot is located = [ (the current year load of the region/the load of the region 5 years before the current year) ^0.2-1] + -100%;
step S3, forecasting the load of the planned annual plot, including forecasting the load of the plot in the near-middle period and forecasting the load of the plot in the saturation year;
step S4, the equipment load distribution in the planning year comprises distribution transformer load prediction, line load distribution and feeder line load distribution; the distribution transformer load prediction algorithm is planning year distribution transformer load = distribution transformer present load ^ (1+ natural growth rate) ^ (planning year-present year), and the natural growth rate is taken from the natural growth rate value of the power supply = distribution transformer present unit to which the distribution transformer belongs in the block saturation statistics in step 2; the line load distribution algorithm comprises the steps that the residual load of a block = the load of the block in the current year-distribution variable load, the basic value of the cross line load = the residual load of the block/the number of cross lines, and a certain original cross line load = (the residual load of the block-the number of newly added lines x the basic value of the cross line load) is the distribution coefficient of the original line; the feeder load distribution algorithm is that the load of a certain feeder in a planning year = sigma planning year, the load of the ith line of the feeder in the planning year + sigma planning year, and the jth distribution and transformation load under the feeder.
2. The method for predicting bottom-up loads on a distribution network in blocks according to claim 1, wherein in step 1, if distribution information is plotted on a block of a distribution network geographical connection diagram, the distribution load is used to statistically calculate the distribution load in the block, and the algorithm of the distribution load in the block is distribution load in the block = maximum load of collected distribution load in the block + maximum load of not collected distribution load in the block; acquiring the maximum load of the load distribution transformer in the plot, wherein the maximum load is directly acquired by the information acquisition system; the maximum load of the non-collected load distribution in the block = the distribution load rate of the medium voltage feeder to which the non-collected load distribution capacity belongs.
3. The method for predicting bottom-up loads of distribution network in blocks as claimed in claim 1, wherein in step 1, if distribution network geographical connection diagram is not mapped or only mapped partially, feeder loads are distributed to lines, and then the difference between the feeder load and the sum of the subordinate distribution variable loads is distributed to the lines crossing the block by using the spatial relationship between the lines and the block, and the algorithm of the block crossing line loads is block crossing line loads = Σ (i-th line load crossing the block/i-th number of crossing blocks of lines); the ith line load = (typical daily maximum load of corresponding feeder-maximum load with load distribution transformer under feeder-no load distribution transformer load under feeder)/feeder contains line number; the number of crossed blocks of the ith line is the total number of crossed blocks of the ith line.
4. The method of claim 1, wherein in step S1, the algorithm of the medium voltage feeder distribution transformation load rate is the voltage feeder distribution transformation load rate = feeder typical daily maximum load/feeder attachment transformation capacity 100%.
5. The bottom-up load prediction method for distribution networks based on parcel units as claimed in claim 1, wherein in step S3, the near-middle parcel load prediction algorithm is parcel near-middle load = parcel current year load ^ (1+ natural growth rate) ^ (plan i year-current year) + recent customer installation load within parcel; recent customer loading load = customer saturation load versus saturation factor of customer year i within the parcel; the customer saturation load = new building area load density; the saturated annual block load prediction algorithm is block saturated annual load = block area volume rate load density.
6. The method of claim 4, wherein in step 3, the saturation coefficient of the client in the i-year is obtained from the calculation result of the saturation coefficient statistical algorithm in step 2.
7. The method for bottom-up load prediction in power distribution networks based on land blocks as claimed in claim 4, wherein in step 3, the load densities of different land properties are obtained from the calculation of the load density statistical algorithm in step 2.
8. The method of claim 1, wherein in step S4, the base value of the cross-line load further comprises planning that a new cross-line is added to the block, and the new cross-line is allocated according to the base value of the cross-line load allocation.
9. The method according to claim 1, wherein in step S4, the feeder load distribution further comprises collecting the lines and distribution transformers according to the feeder after the load distribution is performed according to the method in each plot, so as to obtain the planned annual feeder load.
10. The method for bottom-up load prediction of power distribution networks in parcel units according to claim 1 or 5, characterized in that said natural growth rate is taken from the calculation result of said statistical algorithm of natural growth rate in step 2.
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