CN111340327A - Main and auxiliary integrated load analysis platform and implementation method thereof - Google Patents

Main and auxiliary integrated load analysis platform and implementation method thereof Download PDF

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CN111340327A
CN111340327A CN201911412473.1A CN201911412473A CN111340327A CN 111340327 A CN111340327 A CN 111340327A CN 201911412473 A CN201911412473 A CN 201911412473A CN 111340327 A CN111340327 A CN 111340327A
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杨宏宇
樊海锋
程振华
朱信颖
屈卫锋
李雷
张超
颜玮玮
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Lianyungang Power Supply Co of State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co Ltd
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Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of power systems, and discloses a main distribution integrated load analysis platform which comprises a data access module, a data preprocessing module, a unified refined modeling module and an integrated analysis module; the main distribution integrated load analysis platform integrates main and distribution network data, acquisition data, meteorological and geographic information and other external environment data, applies an integrated modeling technology to carry out load characteristic analysis, and links data of all links from bottom to top of a load through acquisition-distribution network-main network, so that accurate modeling, classification identification and characteristic analysis of the load can be realized, accurate load prediction and analysis are facilitated, and a solid foundation is provided for making a power generation plan and power system development planning.

Description

Main and auxiliary integrated load analysis platform and implementation method thereof
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of power systems, in particular to a main distribution integrated load analysis platform and an implementation method thereof.
Background
In recent years, with continuous access of distributed new energy, energy storage devices, new electric equipment and continuous change of electric structures, load characteristics have changed greatly, and more accurate load characteristic analysis, prediction and the like need to be performed according to electric characteristics of low-voltage loads. Meanwhile, with the continuous construction and perfection of low-voltage power utilization systems and distribution network systems, conditions for accurately modeling and analyzing all low-voltage loads are provided.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a main distribution integrated load analysis platform and an implementation method thereof.
The technical solution for realizing the purpose of the invention is as follows:
a main and auxiliary integrated load analysis platform is characterized by comprising
The data access module is used for acquiring main network load data, distribution network load data, power consumption load data, geographic information data, meteorological data, industry data and national economy data from the power consumption information acquisition system, the power grid energy management system and the external environment;
the data preprocessing module is used for acquiring a user load attribute relation, a load contact relation, equipment names of the power supply equipment and scheduling name matching mapping, and ensuring that the power supply equipment names acquired from the power utilization information acquisition system can be identified in the scheduling system;
the unified refined modeling module is used for carrying out multistage unified refined load modeling of 'transformer substation-10 kV feeder line-distribution transformer-low-voltage line-power utilization customer' according to the user load attribute relationship, the equipment name mapping and the power grid network structure, and sharing and fusing main distribution three-level scheduling user load data and a model;
and the integrated analysis module is used for carrying out load component identification, load cluster analysis, load influence factor analysis, comprehensive load prediction and operation trend analysis by combining geographic information data, meteorological data, industrial data and national economic data according to the load data collected from bottom to top by the electricity utilization information acquisition system and the power grid energy management system according to the refined load model.
Preferably, the data access module is in an asynchronous file mode, is updated in an incremental mode, and is stored in the database.
Preferably, the user load attribute relationship in the data preprocessing module includes a low-voltage load attribute relationship obtained from the power consumption information acquisition system and a high-voltage load attribute relationship obtained from the power grid energy management system; the low-voltage load attribute relationship comprises an electricity customer attribute, a distribution transformer attribute and a feeder line attribute, and the high-voltage load attribute relationship comprises a transformer substation attribute.
Preferably, the device name and the scheduling name of the power supply device in the data preprocessing module are mapped in a matching manner by using a name mapping table, and a corresponding relationship between the name of the power supply device and the scheduling name is established on the feeder line boundary.
Preferably, the unified refined modeling module forms a multi-level unified refined load physical model of 'a transformer substation-10 kV feeder line-distribution transformer-low-voltage line-power consumer' from top to bottom according to the physical connection relation between a power grid and power utilization equipment.
A method for realizing a main distribution integrated load analysis platform is characterized by comprising the following steps:
(1) data access: acquiring main network load data, distribution network load data, power load data, geographic information data, meteorological data, industry data and national economy data from a power utilization information acquisition system, a power grid energy management system and an external environment;
(2) data preprocessing, namely acquiring a user load attribute relationship, a load contact relationship, equipment naming and scheduling naming matching mapping of power supply equipment, preprocessing data according to an equipment name mapping table and a load attribute relationship table by utilizing a power grid energy management system topology technology and a topology technology based on a utilization system, and ensuring that the power supply equipment name acquired from a power utilization information acquisition system can be identified in a scheduling system;
(3) unified refined modeling, namely performing multi-stage unified refined load modeling of 'transformer substation-10 kV feeder line-distribution transformer-low voltage line-power utilization customer' according to user load attribute relationship, power supply equipment name mapping and power grid network structure, and realizing sharing and fusion of load data and models of main distribution three-stage scheduling users;
(4) and (3) performing integrated analysis, namely performing load component identification, load cluster analysis, load influence factor analysis, comprehensive load prediction and operation trend analysis by combining geographic information data, meteorological data, industrial data and national economic data according to a refined load model and load data collected from bottom to top by the power utilization information acquisition system and the power grid energy management system.
Preferably, the data access mode in the step (1) adopts asynchronous file transmission, and the power consumption information acquisition system exports the power consumption load data to a file every 15 minutes; the power grid energy management system exports main grid load power data and distribution network load power data to a file; the electric power weather information system automatically exports the weather actual condition and the weather forecast of each partition to a file every 1 hour; then sending the exported file to a specific directory of the integrated load analysis platform; the industry data and the national economy data can be accessed in a manual input mode; the background monitoring program monitors whether the corresponding file directory receives the latest file or not, and if the latest file exists, the file is analyzed and the data in the file is written into the database, so that the related data is obtained.
Preferably, the user load attribute relationship in the step (2) includes a low-voltage load attribute relationship file acquired from the power consumption information acquisition system and a high-voltage load attribute relationship file acquired from the power grid energy management system; the low-voltage load attribute relationship comprises an electricity customer attribute, a distribution transformer attribute and a feeder line attribute, wherein the electricity customer attribute comprises an electricity customer name, a belonging feeder line, a belonging industry, a belonging distribution transformer and a safe power supply grade; the distribution transformer attribute comprises a distribution transformer name, a large industry type, a power supply feeder, a safe power supply grade, a distribution transformer type (a special transformer and a public transformer) and a user number; the feeder line attributes comprise a feeder line name, the number of users in each industry, the number of special important users, the number of primary important users and the number of secondary important users; the high-voltage load attribute relationship comprises transformer substation attributes, wherein the transformer substation attributes comprise information such as 10kV load names and main transformers to which the transformer substation belongs; analyzing the low-voltage load attribute relation file and the high-voltage load attribute relation file, and storing the contents in a load attribute relation table of a database;
establishing an equipment name mapping table on an integrated load analysis platform, and automatically matching the feeder line name acquired by an electricity information acquisition system and the 10kV load name in a power grid energy management system according to the names, wherein the unmatchable manual maintenance corresponding relation is maintained; therefore, the attributes of power distribution, power utilization customers and the like of the corresponding feeder line can be determined by the 10kV load;
through an interface program, by utilizing a power grid energy management system topology technology and a topology technology based on a utilization system, and according to an equipment name mapping table and a load attribute relation table, information such as the number of users in each industry, a resident user book, a special important user number, a primary important user number, a secondary important user number and the like contained in each main transformer and station can be determined, and the name of power supply equipment acquired from an electricity utilization information acquisition system can be identified in a scheduling system.
Preferably, in the step (3), according to the device name mapping table and the load attribute relationship table, information of upper and lower devices to which the device belongs may be determined; by utilizing a topological technology, the physical connection relation of a power grid and electric equipment is determined, user load attributes and user load power data can be issued according to a tree structure, and a multi-level unified refined load physical model of a transformer substation-10 kV feeder line-distribution transformer-electricity consumer is formed from top to bottom.
Preferably, the load cluster analysis in the step (4): according to the number of users and corresponding power of each industry, clustering can be performed from bottom to top (10 kV-35 kV-110 kV-220 kV-region) by adopting a K-means or K-medoids algorithm to obtain comprehensive industry load composition of each level of the region, wherein the comprehensive industry load composition comprises each industry load value and each industry load ratio; and (3) load component identification: according to the user load cluster analysis result, identifying the components of various bottom layer loads by using a neural network method, and then aggregating from bottom to top (10 kV-35 kV-110 kV-220 kV-region) to obtain the load components and the proportion of load nodes of each level of the region; and (3) the comprehensive load prediction: with each cluster load as a prediction object, according to load cluster data obtained by load aggregation analysis, a neural network, a time sequence or a similar daily algorithm can be adopted to predict the classified loads, and the obtained prediction results of various cluster loads are summarized and superposed, so that a comprehensive load prediction result is obtained; and analyzing the operation trend: and comparing and analyzing the comprehensive load prediction result and the current load data to obtain the future operation trend of the comprehensive load prediction result.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following remarkable advantages:
the main distribution integrated load analysis platform integrates main and distribution network data, acquisition data, meteorological and geographic information and other external environment data, applies an integrated modeling technology to carry out load characteristic analysis, and links data of all links from bottom to top of a load through acquisition-distribution network-main network, so that accurate modeling, classification identification and characteristic analysis of the load can be realized, accurate load prediction and analysis are facilitated, and a solid foundation is provided for making a power generation plan and power system development planning.
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In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly introduced below, it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and for those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained according to the drawings without creative efforts.
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the main distribution integrated load analysis platform of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Example 1:
as shown in FIG. 1, a main and auxiliary integrated load analysis platform comprises
The data access module is used for acquiring information resources such as main network load data, distribution network load data, power consumption load data, geographic information data, meteorological data, industry data, national economy data and the like from the power consumption information acquisition system, the power grid energy management system and the external environment;
the data preprocessing module is used for acquiring a user load attribute relation, a load contact relation, equipment names of the power supply equipment and scheduling name matching mapping, and ensuring that the power supply equipment names acquired from the power utilization information acquisition system can be identified in the scheduling system;
the unified refined modeling module is used for carrying out multistage unified refined load modeling of 'transformer substation-10 kV feeder line-distribution transformer-low-voltage line-power utilization customer' according to the user load attribute relationship, the equipment name mapping and the power grid network structure, and sharing and fusing main distribution three-level scheduling user load data and a model;
and the integrated analysis module is used for carrying out various load characteristic analyses such as load component identification, load cluster analysis, load influence factor analysis and the like, comprehensive load prediction, operation trend analysis and the like according to the refined load model and load data collected from bottom to top by the power utilization information acquisition system and the power grid energy management system and by combining external environment data such as geographic information data, meteorological data, industrial data, national economic data and the like.
The data access module is in an asynchronous file mode, is updated in an incremental mode and is stored in the database.
The user load attribute relationship in the data preprocessing module comprises a low-voltage load attribute relationship obtained from the power utilization information acquisition system and a high-voltage load attribute relationship obtained from the power grid energy management system; the low-voltage load attribute relationship comprises an electricity customer attribute, a distribution transformer attribute and a feeder line attribute, and the high-voltage load attribute relationship comprises a transformer substation attribute.
The device naming and scheduling naming matching mapping of the power supply device in the data preprocessing module adopts a name mapping table, and the corresponding relation between the power supply device name and the scheduling naming is established on the feeder line boundary.
The unified refined modeling module forms a multi-stage unified refined load physical model of a transformer substation-10 kV feeder line-distribution transformer-low-voltage line-power utilization customer from top to bottom according to the physical connection relation of a power grid and power utilization equipment.
A method for realizing a main distribution integrated load analysis platform comprises the following steps:
(1) data access: acquiring information resources such as main network load data, distribution network load data, power load data, geographic information data, meteorological data, industry data, national economy data and the like from a power utilization information acquisition system, a power grid energy management system and an external environment;
the data access mode adopts asynchronous file transmission, and the electricity utilization information acquisition system exports the electricity utilization load data to a file every 15 minutes; the power grid energy management system exports main grid load power data and distribution network load power data to a file; the electric power weather information system automatically exports the weather actual condition and the weather forecast of each partition to a file every 1 hour; then sending the exported file to a specific directory of the integrated load analysis platform; the industry data and the national economy data can be accessed in a manual input mode; the background monitoring program monitors whether the corresponding file directory receives the latest file or not, and if the latest file exists, the file is analyzed and the data in the file is written into the database, so that the related data is obtained;
(2) data preprocessing, namely acquiring a user load attribute relationship, a load contact relationship, equipment naming and scheduling naming matching mapping of power supply equipment, preprocessing data according to an equipment name mapping table and a load attribute relationship table by utilizing a power grid energy management system topology technology and a topology technology based on a utilization system, and ensuring that the power supply equipment name acquired from a power utilization information acquisition system can be identified in a scheduling system;
the user load attribute relationship comprises a low-voltage load attribute relationship file acquired from the power utilization information acquisition system and a high-voltage load attribute relationship file acquired from the power grid energy management system; the low-voltage load attribute relationship comprises an electricity customer attribute, a distribution transformer attribute and a feeder line attribute, wherein the electricity customer attribute comprises an electricity customer name, a belonging feeder line, a belonging industry, a belonging distribution transformer and a safe power supply grade; the distribution transformer attribute comprises a distribution transformer name, a large industry type, a power supply feeder, a safe power supply grade, a distribution transformer type (a special transformer and a public transformer) and a user number; the feeder line attributes comprise a feeder line name, the number of users in each industry, the number of special important users, the number of primary important users and the number of secondary important users; the high-voltage load attribute relationship comprises transformer substation attributes, wherein the transformer substation attributes comprise information such as 10kV load names and main transformers to which the transformer substation belongs; analyzing the low-voltage load attribute relation file and the high-voltage load attribute relation file, and storing the contents in a load attribute relation table of a database;
establishing an equipment name mapping table on an integrated load analysis platform, and automatically matching the feeder line name acquired by an electricity information acquisition system and the 10kV load name in a power grid energy management system according to the names, wherein the unmatchable manual maintenance corresponding relation is maintained; therefore, the attributes of power distribution, power utilization customers and the like of the corresponding feeder line can be determined by the 10kV load;
through an interface program, by utilizing a power grid energy management system topology technology and a topology technology based on a utilization system, and according to an equipment name mapping table and a load attribute relation table, information such as the number of users in each industry, a resident user book, a special important user number, a primary important user number, a secondary important user number and the like contained in each main transformer and station can be determined, and the name of power supply equipment acquired from an electricity utilization information acquisition system can be identified in a scheduling system;
(3) unified refined modeling, namely performing multi-stage unified refined load modeling of 'transformer substation-10 kV feeder line-distribution transformer-low voltage line-power utilization customer' according to user load attribute relationship, power supply equipment name mapping and power grid network structure, and realizing sharing and fusion of load data and models of main distribution three-stage scheduling users;
determining the information of the superior and inferior devices to which the devices belong according to the device name mapping table and the load attribute relation table; by utilizing a topological technology, the physical connection relation of a power grid and electric equipment is determined, user load attributes and user load power data can be issued according to a tree structure, and a multi-level unified refined load physical model of a transformer substation-10 kV feeder line-distribution transformer-electricity consumer is formed from top to bottom;
(4) and (3) performing integrated analysis, namely performing load component identification, load cluster analysis, load influence factor analysis, comprehensive load prediction and operation trend analysis by combining geographic information data, meteorological data, industrial data and national economic data according to a refined load model and load data collected from bottom to top by the power utilization information acquisition system and the power grid energy management system.
And (3) load clustering analysis: according to the number of users and corresponding power of each industry, clustering can be performed from bottom to top (10 kV-35 kV-110 kV-220 kV-region) by adopting a K-means or K-medoids algorithm to obtain comprehensive industry load composition of each level of the region, wherein the comprehensive industry load composition comprises each industry load value and each industry load ratio; and (3) load component identification: according to the user load cluster analysis result, identifying the components of various bottom layer loads by using a neural network method, and then aggregating from bottom to top (10 kV-35 kV-110 kV-220 kV-region) to obtain the load components and the proportion of load nodes of each level of the region; and (3) the comprehensive load prediction: with each cluster load as a prediction object, according to load cluster data obtained by load aggregation analysis, a neural network, a time sequence or a similar daily algorithm can be adopted to predict the classified loads, and the obtained prediction results of various cluster loads are summarized and superposed, so that a comprehensive load prediction result is obtained; and analyzing the operation trend: and comparing and analyzing the comprehensive load prediction result and the current load data to obtain the future operation trend of the comprehensive load prediction result.
In conclusion, the main distribution integrated load analysis platform integrates main distribution network data, acquisition data, meteorological information, geographic information and other external environment data, an integrated modeling technology is applied to carry out load characteristic analysis, and data association of all links is achieved by the acquisition-distribution network-main network from bottom to top of a load, so that accurate load modeling, classification identification and characteristic analysis can be realized, accurate load prediction and analysis are facilitated, and a solid foundation is provided for making a power generation plan and a power system development plan.
Finally, it should be noted that: although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, it will be apparent to those skilled in the art that changes may be made in the embodiments and/or equivalents thereof without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention. Any modification, equivalent replacement, or improvement made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims (10)

1. A main and auxiliary integrated load analysis platform is characterized by comprising
The data access module is used for acquiring main network load data, distribution network load data, power consumption load data, geographic information data, meteorological data, industry data and national economy data from the power consumption information acquisition system, the power grid energy management system and the external environment;
the data preprocessing module is used for acquiring a user load attribute relation, a load contact relation, equipment names of the power supply equipment and scheduling name matching mapping, and ensuring that the power supply equipment names acquired from the power utilization information acquisition system can be identified in the scheduling system;
the unified refined modeling module is used for carrying out multistage unified refined load modeling of 'transformer substation-10 kV feeder line-distribution transformer-low-voltage line-power utilization customer' according to the user load attribute relationship, the equipment name mapping and the power grid network structure, and sharing and fusing main distribution three-level scheduling user load data and a model;
and the integrated analysis module is used for carrying out load component identification, load cluster analysis, load influence factor analysis, comprehensive load prediction and operation trend analysis by combining geographic information data, meteorological data, industrial data and national economic data according to the load data collected from bottom to top by the electricity utilization information acquisition system and the power grid energy management system according to the refined load model.
2. The integrated active distribution load analysis platform according to claim 1, wherein the data access module is obtained in an asynchronous file form, is updated incrementally, and is stored in the database.
3. The integrated active distribution load analysis platform according to claim 1, wherein the user load attribute relationship in the data preprocessing module comprises a low voltage load attribute relationship obtained from a power consumption information acquisition system and a high voltage load attribute relationship obtained from a grid energy management system; the low-voltage load attribute relationship comprises an electricity customer attribute, a distribution transformer attribute and a feeder line attribute, and the high-voltage load attribute relationship comprises a transformer substation attribute.
4. The integrated active and distribution load analysis platform according to claim 1, wherein the device naming and scheduling naming matching mapping of the power supply devices in the data preprocessing module adopts a name mapping table, and the corresponding relationship between the power supply device names and the scheduling naming is established on the feeder line boundary.
5. The integrated load analysis platform for main and auxiliary use according to claim 1, wherein the unified refined modeling module forms a multi-level unified refined load physical model of 'substation-10 kV feeder line-distribution transformer-low voltage line-electricity consumer' from top to bottom according to the physical connection relationship between the power grid and the electricity consumer.
6. A method for implementing an integrated active distribution load analysis platform according to claim 1, comprising the steps of:
(1) data access: acquiring main network load data, distribution network load data, power load data, geographic information data, meteorological data, industry data and national economy data from a power utilization information acquisition system, a power grid energy management system and an external environment;
(2) data preprocessing, namely acquiring a user load attribute relationship, a load contact relationship, equipment naming and scheduling naming matching mapping of power supply equipment, preprocessing data according to an equipment name mapping table and a load attribute relationship table by utilizing a power grid energy management system topology technology and a topology technology based on a utilization system, and ensuring that the power supply equipment name acquired from a power utilization information acquisition system can be identified in a scheduling system;
(3) unified refined modeling, namely performing multi-stage unified refined load modeling of 'transformer substation-10 kV feeder line-distribution transformer-low voltage line-power utilization customer' according to user load attribute relationship, power supply equipment name mapping and power grid network structure, and realizing sharing and fusion of load data and models of main distribution three-stage scheduling users;
(4) and (3) performing integrated analysis, namely performing load component identification, load cluster analysis, load influence factor analysis, comprehensive load prediction and operation trend analysis by combining geographic information data, meteorological data, industrial data and national economic data according to a refined load model and load data collected from bottom to top by the power utilization information acquisition system and the power grid energy management system.
7. The method for implementing an integrated active power distribution load analysis platform as claimed in claim 6, wherein in the step (1), the data access mode adopts asynchronous file transmission, and the power consumption information acquisition system exports the power consumption load data to a file every 15 minutes; the power grid energy management system exports main grid load power data and distribution network load power data to a file; the electric power weather information system automatically exports the weather actual condition and the weather forecast of each partition to a file every 1 hour; then sending the exported file to a specific directory of the integrated load analysis platform; the industry data and the national economy data can be accessed in a manual input mode; the background monitoring program monitors whether the corresponding file directory receives the latest file or not, and if the latest file exists, the file is analyzed and the data in the file is written into the database, so that the related data is obtained.
8. The method for implementing an integrated active power distribution and utilization load analysis platform as claimed in claim 6, wherein the user load attribute relationship in step (2) includes a low voltage load attribute relationship file obtained from the power consumption information collection system and a high voltage load attribute relationship file obtained from the power grid energy management system; the low-voltage load attribute relationship comprises an electricity customer attribute, a distribution transformer attribute and a feeder line attribute, wherein the electricity customer attribute comprises an electricity customer name, a belonging feeder line, a belonging industry, a belonging distribution transformer and a safe power supply grade; the distribution transformer attribute comprises a distribution transformer name, a large industry type, a power supply feeder, a safe power supply grade, a distribution transformer type (a special transformer and a public transformer) and a user number; the feeder line attributes comprise a feeder line name, the number of users in each industry, the number of special important users, the number of primary important users and the number of secondary important users; the high-voltage load attribute relationship comprises transformer substation attributes, wherein the transformer substation attributes comprise information such as 10kV load names and main transformers to which the transformer substation belongs; analyzing the low-voltage load attribute relation file and the high-voltage load attribute relation file, and storing the contents in a load attribute relation table of a database;
establishing an equipment name mapping table on an integrated load analysis platform, and automatically matching the feeder line name acquired by an electricity information acquisition system and the 10kV load name in a power grid energy management system according to the names, wherein the unmatchable manual maintenance corresponding relation is maintained; therefore, the attributes of power distribution, power utilization customers and the like of the corresponding feeder line can be determined by the 10kV load;
through an interface program, by utilizing a power grid energy management system topology technology and a topology technology based on a utilization system, and according to an equipment name mapping table and a load attribute relation table, information such as the number of users in each industry, a resident user book, a special important user number, a primary important user number, a secondary important user number and the like contained in each main transformer and station can be determined, and the name of power supply equipment acquired from an electricity utilization information acquisition system can be identified in a scheduling system.
9. The method for implementing an integrated active and distribution load analysis platform according to claim 6, wherein in the step (3), the information of the superior and inferior devices to which the devices belong can be determined according to the device name mapping table and the load attribute relationship table; by utilizing a topological technology, the physical connection relation of a power grid and electric equipment is determined, user load attributes and user load power data can be issued according to a tree structure, and a multi-level unified refined load physical model of a transformer substation-10 kV feeder line-distribution transformer-electricity consumer is formed from top to bottom.
10. The method for implementing an integrated active distribution load analysis platform as claimed in claim 6, wherein the load cluster analysis in the step (4): according to the number of users and corresponding power of each industry, clustering can be performed from bottom to top (10 kV-35 kV-110 kV-220 kV-region) by adopting a K-means or K-medoids algorithm to obtain comprehensive industry load composition of each level of the region, wherein the comprehensive industry load composition comprises each industry load value and each industry load ratio; and (3) load component identification: according to the user load cluster analysis result, identifying the components of various bottom layer loads by using a neural network method, and then aggregating from bottom to top (10 kV-35 kV-110 kV-220 kV-region) to obtain the load components and the proportion of load nodes of each level of the region; and (3) the comprehensive load prediction: with each cluster load as a prediction object, according to load cluster data obtained by load aggregation analysis, a neural network, a time sequence or a similar daily algorithm can be adopted to predict the classified loads, and the obtained prediction results of various cluster loads are summarized and superposed, so that a comprehensive load prediction result is obtained; and analyzing the operation trend: and comparing and analyzing the comprehensive load prediction result and the current load data to obtain the future operation trend of the comprehensive load prediction result.
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