CN114418202A - Power distribution network level load prediction method and system - Google Patents

Power distribution network level load prediction method and system Download PDF

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CN114418202A
CN114418202A CN202210009025.2A CN202210009025A CN114418202A CN 114418202 A CN114418202 A CN 114418202A CN 202210009025 A CN202210009025 A CN 202210009025A CN 114418202 A CN114418202 A CN 114418202A
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王喆
陈若兰
伍斯龙
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Guangdong Electric Power Information Technology Co Ltd
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Abstract

The invention discloses a method and a system for predicting hierarchical load of a power distribution network, and relates to the technical field of power grid planning. The method comprises the following steps: according to the current load and the installation information, a preset prediction scheme is combined to carry out preliminary level load prediction to obtain a preliminary prediction result; according to the preliminary prediction result, prejudging the problems of overload and incapability of transferring of planning year weights to obtain a planning project; and cloning the prediction scheme, and calling in and calling out the initial level load by combining the planning project to obtain a final prediction result of the level load in the planning year. According to the invention, the load prediction is refined to the equipment level, so that the accuracy of the load prediction result can be improved.

Description

Power distribution network level load prediction method and system
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of power grid planning, in particular to a method and a system for predicting hierarchical loads of a power distribution network.
Background
Load prediction in the current power distribution network planning generally comprises total load prediction and space load prediction, the load prediction is not refined on an equipment level, influence on a load prediction result along with operation of a planning project in a planning year is not considered, the load prediction refinement and prediction accuracy are not high, and the refinement planning support of the power distribution network is insufficient.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a power distribution network level load prediction method, which improves the accuracy of a load prediction result by thinning the load prediction to an equipment level.
In order to achieve the above object, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for predicting a hierarchical load of a power distribution network, including:
according to the current load and the installation information, a preset prediction scheme is combined to carry out preliminary level load prediction to obtain a preliminary prediction result;
according to the preliminary prediction result, prejudging the problems of overload and incapability of transferring of planning year weights to obtain a planning project;
and cloning the prediction scheme, and calling in and calling out the initial level load by combining the planning project to obtain a final prediction result of the level load in the planning year.
Preferably, the performing preliminary level load prediction by combining a preset prediction scheme according to the current load and the installation information to obtain a preliminary prediction result includes:
integrating a prediction scheme according to the current load and the installation information and preset basic setting parameters, and performing preliminary level load prediction to obtain a preliminary prediction result; the basic setting parameters comprise load prediction parameters, power user stage coefficients and practical coefficients.
Preferably, the performing preliminary level load prediction by combining a preset prediction scheme according to the current load and the installation information to obtain a preliminary prediction result includes:
according to the current load and the installation information and a preset equipment maintenance parameter integration prediction scheme, performing preliminary level load prediction to obtain a preliminary prediction result; the equipment maintenance parameters comprise distribution transformer parameters, medium-voltage line parameters, substation parameters and high-voltage line parameters.
Preferably, the predicting the problems of overload and non-transferability of the planning year according to the preliminary prediction result to obtain a planning project includes:
and further prejudging the possibility of problems of heavy overload, incapability of transferring supply and the like of the distribution transformer, the medium-voltage line, the transformer substation and the high-voltage line in a future state according to the preliminary prediction result, and temporarily entering a problem library to obtain a planning project.
The embodiment of the invention also provides a system for predicting the hierarchical load of the power distribution network, which comprises the following steps:
the preliminary prediction module is used for performing preliminary level load prediction by combining a preset prediction scheme according to the current load and the reporting information to obtain a preliminary prediction result;
the prediction analysis module is used for predicting the problems of overload and incapability of transferring the planning year according to the preliminary prediction result to obtain a planning project;
and the prediction adjusting module is used for cloning the prediction scheme and calling in and calling out the initial level load by combining the planning project to obtain a final prediction result of the planning year level load.
Preferably, the preliminary prediction module is further configured to:
integrating a prediction scheme according to the current load and the installation information and preset basic setting parameters, and performing preliminary level load prediction to obtain a preliminary prediction result; the basic setting parameters comprise load prediction parameters, power user stage coefficients and practical coefficients.
Preferably, the preliminary prediction module is further configured to:
according to the current load and the installation information and a preset equipment maintenance parameter integration prediction scheme, performing preliminary level load prediction to obtain a preliminary prediction result; the equipment maintenance parameters comprise distribution transformer parameters, medium-voltage line parameters, substation parameters and high-voltage line parameters.
Preferably, the prediction analysis module is further configured to:
and further prejudging the possibility of problems of heavy overload, incapability of transferring supply and the like of the distribution transformer, the medium-voltage line, the transformer substation and the high-voltage line in a future state according to the preliminary prediction result, and temporarily entering a problem library to obtain a planning project.
The embodiment of the invention also provides computer terminal equipment which comprises one or more processors and a memory. A memory coupled to the processor for storing one or more programs; when executed by the one or more processors, cause the one or more processors to implement a method for power distribution grid level load prediction as in any of the embodiments described above.
The embodiment of the present invention further provides a computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, where the computer program, when executed by a processor, implements the method for predicting the load of the power distribution network level according to any of the above embodiments.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
the invention provides a power distribution network level load prediction method, which comprises the following steps: according to the current load and the installation information, a preset prediction scheme is combined to carry out preliminary level load prediction to obtain a preliminary prediction result; according to the preliminary prediction result, prejudging the problems of overload and incapability of transferring of planning year weights to obtain a planning project; and cloning the prediction scheme, and calling in and calling out the initial level load by combining the planning project to obtain a final prediction result of the level load in the planning year. According to the invention, the load prediction is refined to the equipment level, so that the accuracy of the load prediction result can be improved.
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In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solution of the present invention, the drawings needed to be used in the embodiments will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious for those skilled in the art that other drawings can be obtained according to the drawings without creative efforts.
Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a method for predicting a load of a power distribution network hierarchy according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 2 is a schematic structural diagram of a power distribution network level load prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 3 is a schematic structural diagram of a computer terminal device according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
It should be understood that the step numbers used herein are for convenience of description only and are not used as limitations on the order in which the steps are performed.
It is to be understood that the terminology used in the description of the invention herein is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only and is not intended to be limiting of the invention. As used in the specification of the present invention and the appended claims, the singular forms "a," "an," and "the" are intended to include the plural forms as well, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise.
The terms "comprises" and "comprising" indicate the presence of the described features, integers, steps, operations, elements, and/or components, but do not preclude the presence or addition of one or more other features, integers, steps, operations, elements, components, and/or groups thereof.
The term "and/or" refers to and includes any and all possible combinations of one or more of the associated listed items.
Referring to fig. 1, fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a power distribution network level load prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention. In this embodiment, the method for predicting the hierarchical load of the power distribution network includes the following steps:
s110, performing preliminary level load prediction by combining a preset prediction scheme according to the current load and the installation information to obtain a preliminary prediction result;
s120, pre-judging the problems of overload and incapability of transferring of planning year weights according to the preliminary prediction result to obtain a planning project;
s130, cloning the prediction scheme, and calling in and calling out the preliminary level load by combining the planning project to obtain a final prediction result of the planning year level load.
In the embodiment of the invention, the prediction scheme can be managed through operations of creating, modifying, checking, deleting and the like.
In one embodiment, step S110 is to perform preliminary level load prediction according to the current load and the installation information by combining a preset prediction scheme, so as to obtain a preliminary prediction result, where the preliminary prediction result includes: integrating a prediction scheme according to the current load and the installation information and preset basic setting parameters, and performing preliminary level load prediction to obtain a preliminary prediction result; the basic setting parameters comprise load prediction parameters, power user stage coefficients and practical coefficients.
Further, the load prediction parameters comprise a natural growth rate, a practical coefficient, a simultaneous coefficient, prediction reference year information and prediction target year information; the power user stage coefficient sets default experience values of sub-classifications of various industries in a planning year; the utility coefficient sets the default empirical value of each industry sub-classification.
In one embodiment, step S110 is to perform preliminary level load prediction according to the current load and the installation information by combining a preset prediction scheme, so as to obtain a preliminary prediction result, where the preliminary prediction result includes: according to the current load and the installation information and a preset equipment maintenance parameter integration prediction scheme, performing preliminary level load prediction to obtain a preliminary prediction result; the equipment maintenance parameters comprise distribution transformer parameters, medium-voltage line parameters, substation parameters and high-voltage line parameters.
Further, the step of respectively maintaining the historical load information of the distribution transformer, the medium-voltage line, the substation and the high-voltage line in the embodiment includes: current year load, last year load, natural growth rate; maintain the user of joining in marriage transformer, medium voltage line, transformer substation and report the dress information respectively, include: the point of installation, the year of installation, the capacity of installation, the type of installation, the release factor year by year, etc. The user access standard is as follows: reporting the installation capacity less than 100kVA, and accessing the distribution transformer; the reporting capacity of industrial users is more than or equal to 8000kVA, the reporting capacity of commercial users is more than or equal to 10000kVA, the reporting capacity of residential users is more than or equal to 15000kVA, and the transformer substation is accessed; other users access the medium-voltage line; and maintaining the power supply relationship, namely the topological relationship, between the 35-110kV line and the 35-110kV transformer substation.
The embodiment of the invention adopts a bottom-up prediction method to predict the load of 4 levels of distribution transformer, medium-voltage line, transformer substation and high-voltage line, comprising the following steps:
(1) and (3) carrying out load prediction on the planned annual distribution transformer by considering natural growth and business expansion installation information from the distribution transformer. Distribution transformation load prediction result
Figure BDA0003456652220000051
Figure BDA0003456652220000052
Wherein,
Figure BDA0003456652220000053
in a normal operation mode, the ith planning year distribution transformer maximum load;
Figure BDA0003456652220000054
in a normal operation mode, the maximum load of the distribution transformer of the (i-1) th planning year is calculated from the planning reference year; alpha is alphaBThe value is taken according to the load base number and the economic development level of a prediction region for the natural increase rate of the load, and is generally 2-6 percent and adjustable; sijInstalling the installation capacity of the jth installation user for the ith planning year; beta is ajThe default values for the utility factor for the jth reporting user, the utility factors for residential, commercial, industrial, and other load types are 0.35, 0.4, 0.7, 0.4, respectively, and are adjustable.
(2) And (3) based on the distribution transformer load prediction result, combining business expansion information, considering the load practical coefficients of different power users and the annual load release condition of the reporting user, and predicting the load of the medium-voltage line. Medium voltage line load prediction result
Figure BDA0003456652220000061
Wherein,
Figure BDA0003456652220000062
under the normal operation mode, the maximum load of the line is pressed in the ith planning year;
Figure BDA0003456652220000063
in a normal operation mode, the maximum load of the line pressing in the (i-1) th planning year is calculated from a planning reference year; alpha is alphaLThe load natural growth rate is generally 2 to 6 percent and can be adjusted; sijThe installation capacity of the jth installation user for the ith planning year (the installation transformer capacity is more than or equal to 200 kVA); beta is ajThe practical coefficients of the jth reporting user are subjected to value taking according to the load development conditions of the same type of mature users in the local area, and the default values of the practical coefficients of the load types of residents, businesses, industries and the like are 0.35, 0.4, 0.7 and 0.4 respectively and can be adjusted; gamma rayjAnd (4) a stage coefficient of the jth reporting user is provided, wherein the stage coefficient is the ratio of the maximum load to the stable load of the user in the current year.
(3) And (3) based on the medium-voltage line load prediction result, combined with business expansion information, considering the load practical coefficients of different power users and the annual load release condition of the reporting users, and predicting the load of the transformer substation. Medium voltage line load prediction result
Figure BDA0003456652220000064
Wherein,
Figure BDA0003456652220000065
in a normal operation mode, the maximum load of the ith planning annual transformer station;
Figure BDA0003456652220000066
in a normal operation mode, the maximum load of the ith-1 planning annual substation is calculated from a planning benchmark year; alpha is alphaSThe load natural growth rate is generally 2 to 6 percent and can be adjusted; sijThe installation capacity of the jth installation user for the ith planning year (the installation transformer capacity is more than or equal to 200 kVA); beta is ajThe practical coefficient of the jth reporting user is valued according to the load development conditions of the same type of mature users in the local area and the practical systems of the load types of residents, businesses, industries and the likeThe default values of the numbers are 0.35, 0.4, 0.7 and 0.4 respectively, and can be adjusted; gamma rayjAnd (4) a stage coefficient of the jth reporting user is provided, wherein the stage coefficient is the ratio of the maximum load to the stable load of the user in the current year.
(4) And according to the load prediction result of the 35-110kV transformer substation, the load prediction of the high-voltage line is carried out by combining the power supply relation of the 35-110kV line and the 35-110kV transformer substation. High voltage line load prediction result
Figure BDA0003456652220000071
Wherein,
Figure BDA0003456652220000072
in a normal operation mode, the maximum load of the high-voltage line in the ith planning year;
Figure BDA0003456652220000073
the maximum load of a transformer substation with a power supply relation for the line of the jth domain of the ith planning year;
Figure BDA0003456652220000074
the coincidence rate between the transformer stations.
In one embodiment, step S120 is to predict the overload and non-transferable problem of the planned year weight according to the preliminary prediction result, so as to obtain a planning project, including: and further prejudging the possibility of problems of heavy overload, incapability of transferring supply and the like of the distribution transformer, the medium-voltage line, the transformer substation and the high-voltage line in a future state according to the preliminary prediction result, and temporarily entering a problem library to obtain a planning project.
It can be understood that, aiming at the heavy overload and non-transferable devices which temporarily enter the question bank, the load of the column planning project is changed, and the heavy overload and non-transferable problems existing in the planning year are avoided as much as possible. On the basis of the preliminary level load prediction result, the influence of a planning project on the planning year distribution transformer, the medium-voltage line, the transformer substation and the high-voltage line load prediction result is considered, and the load prediction is further corrected, wherein the method comprises the following steps:
(1) and cloning a load prediction scheme, and on the basis of a preliminary load prediction result, according to a load change scheme of a planning project, carrying out load call-in and call-out operations on related equipment, wherein the load call-out is minus, the load call-in is plus, and the call-in and call-out values are equal.
(2) And recalculating the distribution transformer, the medium-voltage line, the transformer substation and the high-voltage line according to the load calling-in and calling-out results according to the step S2 to obtain a final level load prediction result.
(3) And according to the final level load prediction result, combining equipment problems solved by the planning project, and supporting planning effect analysis including problem solving conditions and planning index evaluation.
According to the power distribution network level load prediction method provided by the invention, under a prediction scheme, a preliminary load prediction scheme is obtained based on the current load data of power distribution network level equipment and by combining with user installation data; on the basis of the preliminary prediction result, the possibility that the hierarchical equipment is heavily overloaded and unavailable in the planning year is pre-judged, and the solution is carried out according to the planning project; and (4) calling in and calling out the loads among the hierarchical equipment by combining a load change/transfer scheme of a planning project, obtaining a final load prediction result and providing a data basis for planning outcome analysis. Because the prediction method refines the load prediction to the distribution transformer, the medium-voltage line, the transformer substation and the high-voltage line equipment level, the load prediction is more refined; meanwhile, the method considers the influence of the planning project on the annual planning load, improves the load forecasting accuracy and provides data support for the refined planning of the power distribution network.
Referring to fig. 2, fig. 2 is a schematic flow chart of a power distribution network level load prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention. In this embodiment, the system for predicting load at a power distribution network level includes:
the preliminary prediction module 210 is configured to perform preliminary level load prediction according to the current load and the installation information in combination with a preset prediction scheme to obtain a preliminary prediction result;
the prediction analysis module 220 is used for predicting the problems of overload and incapability of transferring the planning year according to the preliminary prediction result to obtain a planning project;
and the prediction adjusting module 230 is configured to clone the prediction scheme, and call in and call out the preliminary level load in combination with the planning project to obtain a final prediction result of the planning year level load.
In an embodiment, the preliminary prediction module 210 is further configured to:
integrating a prediction scheme according to the current load and the installation information and preset basic setting parameters, and performing preliminary level load prediction to obtain a preliminary prediction result; the basic setting parameters comprise load prediction parameters, power user stage coefficients and practical coefficients.
In an embodiment, the preliminary prediction module 210 is further configured to:
according to the current load and the installation information and a preset equipment maintenance parameter integration prediction scheme, performing preliminary level load prediction to obtain a preliminary prediction result; the equipment maintenance parameters comprise distribution transformer parameters, medium-voltage line parameters, substation parameters and high-voltage line parameters.
In a certain embodiment, the prediction analysis module 220 is further configured to:
and further prejudging the possibility of problems of heavy overload, incapability of transferring supply and the like of the distribution transformer, the medium-voltage line, the transformer substation and the high-voltage line in a future state according to the preliminary prediction result, and temporarily entering a problem library to obtain a planning project.
For specific limitations of the power distribution network level load prediction system, reference may be made to the above limitations of the power distribution network level load prediction method, which is not described herein again. The modules in the power distribution network level load prediction system can be wholly or partially implemented by software, hardware and a combination thereof. The modules can be embedded in a hardware form or independent from a processor in the computer device, and can also be stored in a memory in the computer device in a software form, so that the processor can call and execute operations corresponding to the modules.
Referring to fig. 3, an embodiment of the invention provides a computer terminal device, which includes one or more processors and a memory. The memory is coupled to the processor for storing one or more programs, which when executed by the one or more processors, cause the one or more processors to implement the method for power distribution grid level load prediction as in any of the embodiments described above.
The processor is used for controlling the overall operation of the computer terminal equipment so as to complete all or part of the steps of the power distribution network level load prediction method. The memory is used to store various types of data to support the operation at the computer terminal device, which data may include, for example, instructions for any application or method operating on the computer terminal device, as well as application-related data. The Memory may be implemented by any type of volatile or non-volatile Memory device or combination thereof, such as Static Random Access Memory (SRAM), Electrically Erasable Programmable Read-Only Memory (EEPROM), Erasable Programmable Read-Only Memory (EPROM), Programmable Read-Only Memory (PROM), Read-Only Memory (ROM), magnetic Memory, flash Memory, magnetic disk, or optical disk.
In an exemplary embodiment, the computer terminal Device may be implemented by one or more Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs), Digital Signal Processors (DSPs), Digital Signal Processing Devices (DSPDs), Programmable Logic Devices (PLDs), Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs), controllers, microcontrollers, microprocessors or other electronic components, and is configured to perform the above power distribution network level load prediction method and achieve the technical effects consistent with the above method.
In another exemplary embodiment, a computer readable storage medium comprising a computer program is also provided, which when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the power distribution grid level load prediction method in any of the above embodiments. For example, the computer readable storage medium may be the above-mentioned memory including a computer program, which is executable by a processor of a computer terminal device to perform the above-mentioned distribution network level load prediction method, and achieve the technical effects consistent with the above-mentioned method.
While the foregoing is directed to the preferred embodiment of the present invention, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that various changes and modifications may be made without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention.

Claims (10)

1. A power distribution network level load prediction method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
according to the current load and the installation information, a preset prediction scheme is combined to carry out preliminary level load prediction to obtain a preliminary prediction result;
according to the preliminary prediction result, prejudging the problems of overload and incapability of transferring of planning year weights to obtain a planning project;
and cloning the prediction scheme, and calling in and calling out the initial level load by combining the planning project to obtain a final prediction result of the level load in the planning year.
2. The method for predicting the hierarchical load of the power distribution network according to claim 1, wherein the step of performing preliminary hierarchical load prediction according to the current load and the installation information and in combination with a preset prediction scheme to obtain a preliminary prediction result comprises the following steps:
integrating a prediction scheme according to the current load and the installation information and preset basic setting parameters, and performing preliminary level load prediction to obtain a preliminary prediction result; the basic setting parameters comprise load prediction parameters, power user stage coefficients and practical coefficients.
3. The method for predicting the hierarchical load of the power distribution network according to claim 1, wherein the step of performing preliminary hierarchical load prediction according to the current load and the installation information and in combination with a preset prediction scheme to obtain a preliminary prediction result comprises the following steps:
according to the current load and the installation information and a preset equipment maintenance parameter integration prediction scheme, performing preliminary level load prediction to obtain a preliminary prediction result; the equipment maintenance parameters comprise distribution transformer parameters, medium-voltage line parameters, substation parameters and high-voltage line parameters.
4. The method for predicting the hierarchical load of the power distribution network according to claim 1, wherein the step of prejudging the problems of overload and incapability of transferring of planned annual weight according to the preliminary prediction result to obtain a planning project comprises the following steps:
and further prejudging the possibility of heavy overload or incapability of transferring problems of distribution transformer, medium-voltage line, transformer substation and high-voltage line in future states according to the preliminary prediction result, and temporarily entering a problem library to obtain a planning project.
5. A system for power distribution network level load prediction, comprising:
the preliminary prediction module is used for performing preliminary level load prediction by combining a preset prediction scheme according to the current load and the reporting information to obtain a preliminary prediction result;
the prediction analysis module is used for predicting the problems of overload and incapability of transferring the planning year according to the preliminary prediction result to obtain a planning project;
and the prediction adjusting module is used for cloning the prediction scheme and calling in and calling out the initial level load by combining the planning project to obtain a final prediction result of the planning year level load.
6. The power distribution network level load prediction system of claim 5, wherein the preliminary prediction module is further configured to:
integrating a prediction scheme according to the current load and the installation information and preset basic setting parameters, and performing preliminary level load prediction to obtain a preliminary prediction result; the basic setting parameters comprise load prediction parameters, power user stage coefficients and practical coefficients.
7. The power distribution network level load prediction system of claim 5, wherein the preliminary prediction module is further configured to:
according to the current load and the installation information and a preset equipment maintenance parameter integration prediction scheme, performing preliminary level load prediction to obtain a preliminary prediction result; the equipment maintenance parameters comprise distribution transformer parameters, medium-voltage line parameters, substation parameters and high-voltage line parameters.
8. The power distribution network level load prediction system of claim 5, wherein the prediction analysis module is further configured to:
and further prejudging the possibility of heavy overload or incapability of transferring problems of distribution transformer, medium-voltage line, transformer substation and high-voltage line in future states according to the preliminary prediction result, and temporarily entering a problem library to obtain a planning project.
9. A computer terminal device, comprising:
one or more processors;
a memory coupled to the processor for storing one or more programs;
when executed by the one or more processors, cause the one or more processors to implement the power distribution grid level load prediction method of any of claims 1-4.
10. A computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, which, when being executed by a processor, carries out a method for power distribution network level load prediction according to any one of claims 1 to 4.
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