CN113864664B - Pipe network leakage early warning method and system based on flow distribution probability calculation - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a pipe network leakage early warning method and system based on flow distribution probability calculation. The method comprises the following steps: calculating the average value and standard deviation of the flow of the area to be monitored in a first preset time; determining a leakage level early warning limit according to the average value and standard deviation of the flow of the area to be monitored in the first preset time; calculating early warning proportion that the flow of the area to be monitored is larger than the early warning limit of the leakage level in second preset time, and respectively marking the early warning proportion as a first early warning proportion, a second early warning proportion and a third early warning proportion; and judging whether leakage occurs or not according to the real-time flow of the area to be monitored, the leakage level early warning limit and the early warning proportion. The method takes the average value, the upper limit of the 40% confidence interval and the upper limit of the 80% confidence interval as different level limits of leakage early warning respectively, and has simple process and small calculated amount; and comparing the measured water data with the early warning upper limit and the early warning proportion to judge whether leakage occurs or not, and determining the leakage level at the same time.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of urban water supply network monitoring, in particular to a network leakage early warning method and system based on flow distribution probability calculation.
Background
The water supply network is an important infrastructure of a city, the stable operation of the water supply network is a basic condition for guaranteeing the life of people and the industrial and agricultural production, and is also a basis for maintaining the normal social order, however, the leakage of the network is a common problem faced by the water supply industry at home and abroad. The pipe network leakage early warning is an important auxiliary technology for controlling pipe network leakage, and when pipe network leakage occurs, an extra flow is generated, so that the flow on the related pipeline can be changed to form a flow mode different from that before leakage occurs, and in recent years, along with the rapid development of intelligent water service, a large amount of fine water supply pipe network operation data are generated, and the method for early warning the leakage by using abnormal flow data is widely applied. However, these leakage early warning methods are often built on the basis of complex data analysis methods or models, and have certain difficulty in application.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the problems, the invention provides a pipe network leakage early warning method and system based on flow distribution probability calculation.
In order to achieve the above object, the present invention provides the following solutions:
a pipe network leakage early warning method based on flow distribution probability calculation comprises the following steps:
calculating the average value and standard deviation of the flow of the area to be monitored in a first preset time;
determining a leakage level early warning limit according to the average value and standard deviation of the flow of the area to be monitored in the first preset time; the leakage level early warning limit comprises a 1-level early warning limit, a 2-level early warning limit and a 3-level early warning limit;
calculating early warning proportion that the flow of the area to be monitored is larger than the early warning limit of the leakage level in second preset time, and respectively marking the early warning proportion as a first early warning proportion, a second early warning proportion and a third early warning proportion;
and judging whether leakage occurs or not according to the real-time flow of the area to be monitored, the leakage level early warning limit and the early warning proportion.
Optionally, determining the leakage level early warning limit according to the mean value and the standard deviation of the flow of the area to be monitored within the first preset time specifically includes:
taking the average value of the flow of the area to be monitored in the first preset time as a 1-level early warning limit;
calculating the upper limit of a 40% confidence interval according to the mean value and standard deviation of the flow of the area to be monitored in the first preset time, and taking the upper limit as a 2-level early warning limit;
and calculating the upper limit of the 80% confidence interval according to the average value and the standard deviation of the flow of the area to be monitored in the first preset time, and taking the upper limit as a 3-level early warning limit.
Optionally, the calculation formula of the 40% confidence interval upper limit is as follows:
UB 40％ ＝μ i,d +0.52×σ i,d
wherein UB is 40％ Upper limit of 40% confidence interval, μ i,d Is the average value sigma of the flow of the area to be monitored in the first preset time i,d The standard deviation of the flow of the area to be monitored in the first preset time is obtained;
the calculation formula of the 80% confidence interval upper limit is as follows:
UB 80％ ＝μ i,d +1.28×σ i,d
wherein UB is 80％ Is the 80% confidence interval upper limit.
Optionally, the method further comprises: and after judging that the leakage occurs, determining the leakage grade.
Optionally, the judging whether leakage occurs according to the real-time flow of the area to be monitored, the leakage level early warning limit and the early warning proportion specifically includes:
when the real-time flow of the area to be monitored is smaller than the average value of the flow of the area to be monitored in the first preset time, judging that leakage does not occur;
when the real-time flow of the area to be monitored is larger than the average value of the flow of the area to be monitored in the first preset time and the first early warning proportion is larger than 90%, judging that the area to be monitored is 1-level leakage;
when the real-time flow of the area to be monitored is greater than the upper limit of the 40% confidence interval and the second early warning proportion is greater than 70%, judging that the area is 2-level leakage;
and when the real-time flow of the area to be monitored is greater than the upper limit of the 80% confidence interval and the third early warning proportion is greater than 50%, judging that the area is 3-level leakage.
Optionally, multiple levels of leakage occur simultaneously at the same time, subject to high levels; when the multi-level leakage occurs in the continuous time, the high level is the priority.
The invention also provides a pipe network leakage early warning system based on flow distribution probability calculation, which comprises:
the mean value and standard deviation calculation module is used for calculating the mean value and standard deviation of the flow of the area to be monitored in the first preset time;
the leakage level early warning limit determining module is used for determining a leakage level early warning limit according to the average value and standard deviation of the flow of the area to be monitored in the first preset time; the leakage level early warning limit comprises a 1-level early warning limit, a 2-level early warning limit and a 3-level early warning limit;
the early warning proportion calculation module is used for calculating early warning proportion that the flow of the area to be monitored is larger than the leakage level early warning limit in second preset time and respectively recording the early warning proportion as a first early warning proportion, a second early warning proportion and a third early warning proportion;
and the leakage judging module is used for judging whether leakage occurs or not according to the real-time flow of the area to be monitored, the leakage grade early warning limit and the early warning proportion.
Optionally, the method further comprises: and the leakage grade determining module is used for determining the leakage grade after judging that the leakage occurs.
According to the specific embodiment provided by the invention, the invention discloses the following technical effects:
the invention provides a pipe network leakage early warning method based on flow distribution probability calculation, which comprises the following steps: calculating the average value and standard deviation of the flow of the area to be monitored in a first preset time; determining a leakage level early warning limit according to the average value and standard deviation of the flow of the area to be monitored in the first preset time; the leakage level early warning limit comprises a 1-level early warning limit, a 2-level early warning limit and a 3-level early warning limit; calculating early warning proportion that the flow of the area to be monitored is larger than the early warning limit of the leakage level in second preset time, and respectively marking the early warning proportion as a first early warning proportion, a second early warning proportion and a third early warning proportion; and judging whether leakage occurs or not according to the real-time flow of the area to be monitored, the leakage level early warning limit and the early warning proportion. The method takes the average value, the upper limit of the 40% confidence interval and the upper limit of the 80% confidence interval as different level limits of leakage early warning respectively, and has simple process and small calculated amount; and comparing the measured water data with the early warning upper limit and the early warning proportion to judge whether leakage occurs or not, and determining the leakage level at the same time. The invention has simple analysis process and can perform leakage early warning classification.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions of the prior art, the drawings that are needed in the embodiments will be briefly described below, it being obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and that other drawings may be obtained according to these drawings without inventive effort for a person skilled in the art.
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a pipe network leakage early warning method based on flow distribution probability calculation in an embodiment of the invention;
FIG. 2 shows the leak early warning results of 2018-6-25 through 2018-7-1.
Detailed Description
The following description of the embodiments of the present invention will be made clearly and completely with reference to the accompanying drawings, in which it is apparent that the embodiments described are only some embodiments of the present invention, but not all embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be made by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of the invention without making any inventive effort, are intended to be within the scope of the invention.
In order that the above-recited objects, features and advantages of the present invention will become more readily apparent, a more particular description of the invention will be rendered by reference to the appended drawings and appended detailed description.
As shown in fig. 1, the pipe network leakage early warning method based on flow distribution probability calculation provided by the invention comprises the following steps:
step 101: and calculating the average value and standard deviation of the flow of the area to be monitored within the first preset time.
Selecting a region (generally DMA (district metered area, independent metering region) which is a small region divided in a water supply network, wherein the region generally has only one water inlet, namely all water in the region is from the water inlet, and the size of the region is generally 2000-5000 resident), continuously monitoring the water inlet, wherein the monitoring time interval is preferably 15min, dividing the whole day into 96 time intervals according to the monitoring time interval, and recording as t i (i=1, 2,.,. 96), t on each day is recorded i Flow q of the region of time period i 。
Calculating t i The mean and standard deviation of the flow rates from day to day 14 were recorded as μ i,d Sum sigma i,d The formula is as follows:
wherein i represents the i-th period; d represents the current date and can be any day; d-j represents the first j days of the current date, and the value range is 0-13.
Step 102: determining a leakage level early warning limit according to the average value and standard deviation of the flow of the area to be monitored in the first preset time; the leakage level early warning limit comprises a 1-level early warning limit, a 2-level early warning limit and a 3-level early warning limit.
The upper confidence interval limits of 40% and 80% were calculated respectively, as follows:
upper 40% confidence interval limit: UB (UB) 40％ ＝μ i,d +0.52×σ i,d (3)
Upper limit of 80% confidence interval: UB (UB) 80％ ＝μ i,d +1.28×σ i,d (4)
Mean mu i,d As a level 1 early warning limit, 40% confidence interval upper limit UB 40％ ＝μ i,d +0.52×σ i,d As a 2-level early warning limit, 80% confidence interval upper limit UB 80％ ＝μ i,d +1.28×σ i,d As a 3-level warning limit.
Step 103: and calculating the early warning proportion that the flow of the area to be monitored is larger than the early warning limit of the leakage level in the second preset time, and respectively marking the early warning proportion as a first early warning proportion, a second early warning proportion and a third early warning proportion.
Calculating the proportion of the flow greater than the early warning limit of level 1, level 2 and level 3 in the past 72 hours, and respectively marking as r 1 、r 2 、r 3 The formula is as follows:
wherein, the bool () function indicates that the value is 1 when the condition in brackets is satisfied, and otherwise the value is 0.
Step 104: and judging whether leakage occurs or not according to the real-time flow of the area to be monitored, the leakage level early warning limit and the early warning proportion. And after judging that the leakage occurs, determining the leakage grade.
For water flow occurring in real timeq, if q < mu i,d Judging that no leakage exists; if q > mu i,d And r is 1 >90, judging that the level 1 leakage is caused; if q > UB 40％ And r is 2 >70, judging that the level 2 leakage is caused; if q > UB 80％ And r is 3 >50, it is determined as a 3-stage leak. The leakage of the 1 level, the 2 level and the 3 level at the same time occurs at the same time in multiple levels, and the high level is the priority; when the multi-level leakage occurs in the continuous time, the high level is the priority.
Specific numbers (such as 40% confidence interval, 80% confidence interval, early warning proportion comparison value 50%, 70% and 90%) in the invention can be adjusted according to actual conditions in practical application, and are not limited to the above numbers.
After collecting flow data and dividing sequences according to the collection interval, calculating a 14-day moving average value and standard deviation of each sequence data, further calculating upper limits of 40% confidence intervals and 80% confidence intervals, and taking the average value, the upper limits of 40% confidence intervals and the upper limits of 80% confidence intervals as different level limits of leakage early warning, wherein the process is simple and the calculated amount is small; and comparing the measured water data with the early warning upper limit and the early warning proportion to judge whether leakage occurs or not, and determining the leakage level. The analysis process is simple and can perform leakage early warning classification.
Specific examples:
(1) The inlet water quantity of certain DMA is continuously monitored between 19 days of 12 months in 2017 and 30 days of 6 months in 2020, and the monitoring time interval is 15min, and 96 time periods are divided every day and recorded as t i (i=1, 2,.,. 96), solving for t on each day i Water flow q of the area of time period i . Data from month 6, 25, 2018, 7, 1 for 7 days are selected here as examples, see table 1.
TABLE 1 certain DMA2018-6-25 to 2018-7-1 Water flow (m) for 96 days throughout 3 /h)
(2) Calculating t by using formulas (1), (2) i The mean and standard deviation of the flow rates from day to day 14 were recorded as μ i,d Sum sigma i,d 。
The results are shown in tables 2 and 3.
Table 2 moving average μ of 14 day flow data i,d (m 3 /h)
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Table 3 14 day flow data movement standard deviation sigma i,d (m 3 /h)
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(3) The upper confidence interval limits of 40% and 80% were calculated using equations (3) and (4), respectively, and the results are shown in table 4.
Upper 40% confidence interval limit: UB (UB) 40％ ＝μ i,d +0.52×σ i,d (3)
Upper limit of 80% confidence interval: UB (UB) 80％ ＝μ i,d +1.28×σ i,d (4)
Because of the large data volume for 7 days, the calculation process is shown in table 4 with only 25-day data for 2018, 6, and month as an example.
TABLE 4 2018-6-25 confidence interval upper and lower limits for traffic data and real-time monitoring data (m 3 /h)
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(4) Mean mu i,d As a level 1 early warning limit, 40% confidence interval upper limit UB 40％ ＝μ i,d +0.52×σ i,d As a 2-level early warning limit, 80% confidence interval upper limit UB 80％ ＝μ i,d +1.28×σ i,d As a 3-level warning limit.
(5) Calculating the proportion of the flow exceeding the early warning limits of level 1, level 2 and level 3 in the past 72 hours by using formulas (5), (6) and (7), and respectively marking the proportion as r 1 、r 2 、r 3 The results are shown in Table 5.
TABLE 5 proportion (%)
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(6) For the water flow q which occurs in real time, if q < mu i,d Judging that no leakage exists; if q > mu i,d And r is 1 >90, judging that the level 1 leakage is caused; if q > UB 40％ And r is 2 >70, judging that the level 2 leakage is caused; if q > UB 80％ And r is 3 >50, it is determined as a 3-stage leak. The leakage of the 1 level, the 2 level and the 3 level at the same time occurs at the same time in multiple levels, and the high level is the priority; when the multi-level leakage occurs in the continuous time, the high level is the priority.
The DMA data is analyzed by the method, and 14 leakage early warning times are counted from 2018-6-25 to 2018-7-1, wherein 1 level leakage early warning is performed for 1 time, 2 level leakage early warning is performed for 10 times, and 3 level leakage early warning is performed for 3 times. FIG. 2 shows the leak early warning results of 2018-6-25 to 2018-7-1.
The invention also provides a pipe network leakage early warning system based on flow distribution probability calculation, which comprises:
the mean value and standard deviation calculation module is used for calculating the mean value and standard deviation of the flow of the area to be monitored in the first preset time;
the leakage level early warning limit determining module is used for determining a leakage level early warning limit according to the average value and standard deviation of the flow of the area to be monitored in the first preset time; the leakage level early warning limit comprises a 1-level early warning limit, a 2-level early warning limit and a 3-level early warning limit;
the early warning proportion calculation module is used for calculating early warning proportion that the flow of the area to be monitored is larger than the leakage level early warning limit in second preset time and respectively recording the early warning proportion as a first early warning proportion, a second early warning proportion and a third early warning proportion;
and the leakage judging module is used for judging whether leakage occurs or not according to the real-time flow of the area to be monitored, the leakage grade early warning limit and the early warning proportion.
Further comprises: and the leakage grade determining module is used for determining the leakage grade after judging that the leakage occurs.
In the present specification, each embodiment is described in a progressive manner, and each embodiment is mainly described in a different point from other embodiments, and identical and similar parts between the embodiments are all enough to refer to each other. For the system disclosed in the embodiment, since it corresponds to the method disclosed in the embodiment, the description is relatively simple, and the relevant points refer to the description of the method section.
The principles and embodiments of the present invention have been described herein with reference to specific examples, the description of which is intended only to assist in understanding the methods of the present invention and the core ideas thereof; also, it is within the scope of the present invention to be modified by those of ordinary skill in the art in light of the present teachings. In view of the foregoing, this description should not be construed as limiting the invention.
Claims (7)
1. A pipe network leakage early warning method based on flow distribution probability calculation is characterized by comprising the following steps:
calculating the average value and standard deviation of the flow of the area to be monitored in a first preset time;
determining a leakage level early warning limit according to the average value and standard deviation of the flow of the area to be monitored in the first preset time; the leakage level early warning limit comprises a 1-level early warning limit, a 2-level early warning limit and a 3-level early warning limit;
calculating early warning proportion that the flow of the area to be monitored is larger than the early warning limit of the leakage level in second preset time, and respectively marking the early warning proportion as a first early warning proportion, a second early warning proportion and a third early warning proportion;
judging whether leakage occurs or not according to the real-time flow of the area to be monitored, the leakage level early warning limit and the early warning proportion;
wherein, through the formulaAnd->Calculating the average value and standard deviation of the flow of the area to be monitored in a first preset time; wherein mu i,d Represents the mean, sigma i,d Representing variance; q i,d-j Representing the flow of the area to be monitored, wherein i represents the ith period; d represents the current date; d-j represents the first j days of the current date;
the method for determining the leakage level early warning limit according to the average value and standard deviation of the flow of the area to be monitored in the first preset time specifically comprises the following steps:
taking the average value of the flow of the area to be monitored in the first preset time as a 1-level early warning limit;
calculating the upper limit of a 40% confidence interval according to the mean value and standard deviation of the flow of the area to be monitored in the first preset time, and taking the upper limit as a 2-level early warning limit;
calculating an upper limit of an 80% confidence interval according to the average value and the standard deviation of the flow of the area to be monitored in the first preset time, and taking the upper limit as a 3-level early warning limit;
wherein, the first early warning proportion r 1 The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
second early warning proportion r 2 The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
second early warning proportion r 3 The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
wherein, the bool () function indicates that the value is 1 when the condition in brackets is satisfied, and otherwise the value is 0.
2. The pipe network leakage early warning method based on flow distribution probability calculation according to claim 1, wherein the calculation formula of the 40% confidence interval upper limit is as follows:
UB 40％ ＝μ i,d +0.52×σ i,d
wherein UB is 40％ Upper limit of 40% confidence interval, μ i,d Is the average value sigma of the flow of the area to be monitored in the first preset time i,d The standard deviation of the flow of the area to be monitored in the first preset time is obtained;
the calculation formula of the 80% confidence interval upper limit is as follows:
UB 80％ ＝μ i,d +1.28×σ i,d
wherein UB is 80％ Is the 80% confidence interval upper limit.
3. The pipe network leakage early warning method based on flow distribution probability calculation according to claim 1, further comprising: and after judging that the leakage occurs, determining the leakage grade.
4. The pipe network leakage early warning method based on flow distribution probability calculation according to claim 3, wherein the judging whether leakage occurs according to the real-time flow of the area to be monitored, the leakage level early warning limit and the early warning proportion specifically comprises:
when the real-time flow of the area to be monitored is smaller than the average value of the flow of the area to be monitored in the first preset time, judging that leakage does not occur;
when the real-time flow of the area to be monitored is larger than the average value of the flow of the area to be monitored in the first preset time and the first early warning proportion is larger than 90%, judging that the area to be monitored is 1-level leakage;
when the real-time flow of the area to be monitored is greater than the upper limit of the 40% confidence interval and the second early warning proportion is greater than 70%, judging that the area is 2-level leakage;
and when the real-time flow of the area to be monitored is greater than the upper limit of the 80% confidence interval and the third early warning proportion is greater than 50%, judging that the area is 3-level leakage.
5. The pipe network leakage early warning method based on flow distribution probability calculation according to claim 4, wherein multiple levels of leakage occur simultaneously at the same time, based on high levels; when the multi-level leakage occurs in the continuous time, the high level is the priority.
6. A pipe network leakage early warning system based on flow distribution probability calculation is characterized by comprising:
the mean value and standard deviation calculation module is used for calculating the mean value and standard deviation of the flow of the area to be monitored in the first preset time;
the leakage level early warning limit determining module is used for determining a leakage level early warning limit according to the average value and standard deviation of the flow of the area to be monitored in the first preset time; the leakage level early warning limit comprises a 1-level early warning limit, a 2-level early warning limit and a 3-level early warning limit;
the early warning proportion calculation module is used for calculating early warning proportion that the flow of the area to be monitored is larger than the leakage level early warning limit in second preset time and respectively recording the early warning proportion as a first early warning proportion, a second early warning proportion and a third early warning proportion;
the leakage judging module is used for judging whether leakage occurs or not according to the real-time flow of the area to be monitored, the leakage grade early warning limit and the early warning proportion;
wherein, through the formulaAnd->Calculating the average value and standard deviation of the flow of the area to be monitored in a first preset time; wherein mu i,d Represents the mean, sigma i,d Representing variance; q i,d-j Representing the flow of the area to be monitored, wherein i represents the ith period; d represents the current date; d-j represents the first j days of the current date;
the method for determining the leakage level early warning limit according to the average value and standard deviation of the flow of the area to be monitored in the first preset time specifically comprises the following steps:
taking the average value of the flow of the area to be monitored in the first preset time as a 1-level early warning limit;
calculating the upper limit of a 40% confidence interval according to the mean value and standard deviation of the flow of the area to be monitored in the first preset time, and taking the upper limit as a 2-level early warning limit;
calculating an upper limit of an 80% confidence interval according to the average value and the standard deviation of the flow of the area to be monitored in the first preset time, and taking the upper limit as a 3-level early warning limit;
wherein,,first early warning proportion r 1 The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
second early warning proportion r 2 The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
second early warning proportion r 3 The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
wherein, the bool () function indicates that the value is 1 when the condition in brackets is satisfied, and otherwise the value is 0.
7. The pipe network leakage early warning system based on flow distribution probability calculation of claim 6, further comprising:
and the leakage grade determining module is used for determining the leakage grade after judging that the leakage occurs.
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