CN113588452B - Cable life prediction method and device, processor and storage medium - Google Patents
Cable life prediction method and device, processor and storage medium Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a cable life prediction method and device, a processor and a storage medium. Wherein the method comprises the following steps: acquiring a target cable to be subjected to cable life prediction; determining the type of the target cable; adopting a life prediction model corresponding to the type of the target cable to predict the life of the cable of the target cable, so as to obtain a prediction result; and before employing the life prediction model corresponding to the type of the target cable, the method further comprises: determining the type of the cable to be tested; performing an accelerated aging test on the cable to be tested based on the type of the cable to be tested, and acquiring performance data of the cable to be tested obtained through the accelerated aging test; and establishing a life prediction model corresponding to the type of the cable to be tested based on the performance data of the cable to be tested obtained through the accelerated ageing test. The method solves the technical problems that the best time for overhauling and replacing the OPGW optical cable cannot be predicted in the prior art, so that accidents occur frequently and the production efficiency of enterprises is low.
Description
Technical Field
The present invention relates to the field of data processing, and in particular, to a cable life prediction method and apparatus, and a processor and a storage medium.
Background
The service life of the optical cable is related to the material and structure of the optical cable, the natural environment where the optical cable is positioned, the construction mode, lightning stroke and the like. The service life of the optical cable running for more than 15 years in China is greatly different, some of the optical cable are decommissioned after being broken by lightning stroke, some of the optical cable are good in state and can still continue to run, some of the optical cable are poor in state, service life assessment is required to be carried out, if the optical cable is overhauled or decommissioned in a one-cut mode, huge economic loss is caused, so that the service life assessment of the optical cable of the OPGW is beneficial to improving the fine management of the optical cable, and corresponding technical support is provided for the whole service life period management of the optical cable of the OPGW.
There are few studies on the evaluation of the service life of the optical cable, and one major reason is that the service life of the electric power equipment is divided into various types, such as physical service life, economic service life, technical service life and the like, and the study on the service life period of the OPGW is not very much. The transmission line is generally composed of a tower pole, a tower pole foundation, a stay wire, a wire, an overhead ground wire (OPGW optical cable), an insulator, hardware fittings and a grounding device, and from the whole life cycle theory, each transmission accessory needs to carry out reasonable life assessment, and has high difficulty and wide involved parts.
Aiming at the technical problems that the best time for overhauling and replacing an OPGW optical cable cannot be predicted in the prior art, so that accidents occur frequently and the production efficiency of enterprises is low, no effective solution is proposed at present.
Disclosure of Invention
The embodiment of the invention provides a cable life prediction method and device, a processor and a storage medium, which at least solve the technical problems that accidents frequently occur and the production efficiency of enterprises is lower because the best opportunity for overhauling and replacing an OPGW optical cable cannot be predicted in the prior art.
According to an aspect of an embodiment of the present invention, there is provided a cable life prediction method including: acquiring a target cable to be subjected to cable life prediction; determining a type of the target cable, wherein the type of the target cable comprises: wire cable, fiber optic cable, metal cable; and predicting the service life of the target cable by adopting a service life prediction model corresponding to the type of the target cable to obtain a prediction result.
Optionally, before the cable life of the target cable is predicted by adopting a life prediction model corresponding to the type of the target cable, and a prediction result is obtained, the method further includes: determining the type of the cable to be tested, wherein the type of the cable to be tested comprises: wire cable, fiber optic cable, metal cable; performing an accelerated aging test on the cable to be tested based on the type of the cable to be tested, and acquiring performance data of the cable to be tested obtained through the accelerated aging test; and establishing a life prediction model corresponding to the type of the cable to be tested based on the performance data obtained by the accelerated aging test of the cable to be tested.
Optionally, in the case that the type of the cable to be tested is a wire cable, performing an accelerated aging test on the cable to be tested based on the type of the cable to be tested, and acquiring performance data obtained by the accelerated aging test on the cable to be tested, including: performing thermal ageing tests of different temperature stresses on the cable to be tested; under each temperature stress, extracting test samples of the cables to be tested with different ageing durations; and carrying out a tensile test on each sample to be tested to obtain the cable elongation of the cable to be tested under different temperature stresses and different ageing durations.
Optionally, based on performance data obtained by the accelerated aging test of the cable to be tested, establishing a life prediction model corresponding to the type of the cable to be tested, including: fitting an exponential relation curve of aging time length and cable elongation of the cable to be tested under different temperature stresses by using linear regression; fitting parameters to be estimated in exponential relation curves corresponding to different temperature stresses by adopting a least square method, wherein the exponential relation curves are expressed as follows: p=c i e -diτ τ is the ageing time, P is the cable elongation, c i 、d i Parameters to be estimated in an exponential relationship curve; determining the corresponding elongation at break when the cable to be tested fails, and bringing the elongation at break into an exponential relation curve of aging time length and cable elongation of the cable to be tested under different temperature stresses to obtain the breaking time length of the cable to be tested under different temperature stresses; bringing different temperature stresses and fracture duration of the cable to be tested under the different temperature stresses into a first preset formula; fitting parameters to be estimated in the first preset formula by adopting a least square method to obtain a life prediction formula corresponding to the type of the cable to be tested, wherein the life prediction formula is expressed as: log tau i ＝a+b/T i ，τ i Is the temperature stress T i And the breaking time length, a and b are parameters to be estimated in a life prediction formula.
Optionally, in the case that the type of the cable to be tested is an optical fiber cable, performing an accelerated aging test on the cable to be tested based on the type of the cable to be tested, and acquiring test data obtained by the accelerated aging test on the cable to be tested, where the method includes: carrying out vibration tests on the cable to be tested under different tensile stresses; under each tensile stress, extracting test specimens of the cables to be tested with different ageing durations; and detecting fatigue performance of each sample to be tested to obtain the cable fatigue value of the cable to be tested under different tensile stress and different aging time.
Optionally, based on performance data obtained by the accelerated aging test of the cable to be tested, establishing a life prediction model corresponding to the type of the cable to be tested, including: fitting a relation formula of aging time and cable fatigue value of the cable to be tested under different tensile stresses based on Weibull distribution; determining a corresponding failure fatigue value when the cable to be tested fails, and bringing the failure fatigue value into a relation formula of aging time length and cable fatigue value of the cable to be tested under different tensile stresses to obtain the failure time length of the cable to be tested under different tensile stresses; the cable to be tested is provided with different tensile stresses and a long failure time under different tensile stressesEntering a second preset formula; fitting parameters to be estimated in the second preset formula by adopting a least square method to obtain a life prediction formula corresponding to the type of the cable to be tested, wherein the life prediction formula is expressed as: log t s ＝-n s logσ s +log k s ，t s Is the tensile stress sigma s Time to failure, k s 、n s Is a parameter to be estimated in a life prediction formula.
Optionally, in the case that the type of the cable to be tested is a metal cable, performing an accelerated aging test on the cable to be tested based on the type of the cable to be tested, and acquiring performance data obtained by the accelerated aging test on the cable to be tested, including: performing ageing tests of different uniaxial tensile stresses on the cable to be tested; under each uniaxial tensile stress, extracting test samples of the cables to be tested with different ageing durations; and detecting fatigue performance of each sample to be tested to obtain the cable fatigue values of the cable to be tested under different uniaxial tensile stresses and different ageing durations.
Optionally, based on performance data obtained by the accelerated aging test of the cable to be tested, establishing a life prediction model corresponding to the type of the cable to be tested, including: determining fatigue time lengths of the cable to be tested under different uniaxial tensile stresses, wherein the failure time length is the time length required by the cable to be tested to reach a preset fatigue state under the uniaxial tensile stress; fitting a linear relation between different uniaxial tensile stresses and failure time of the cable to be tested under the different uniaxial tensile stresses by using linear regression; based on the fitted linear relation, bringing different uniaxial tensile stresses and the failure time of the cable to be tested under the different uniaxial tensile stresses into a third preset formula, wherein the third preset formula is as follows: log N j ＝b-aS j Or log N j ＝b-a log S j ，N j Is the tensile stress S j The failure time length, a and b are parameters to be estimated in a life prediction formula; fitting parameters to be estimated in the third preset formula by adopting a least square method to obtain the parameters to be estimatedAnd testing a life prediction formula corresponding to the type of the cable.
According to another aspect of the embodiment of the present invention, there is also provided a cable life prediction apparatus including: the first acquisition unit is used for acquiring a target cable to be subjected to cable life prediction; a first determining unit, configured to determine a type of the target cable, where the type of the target cable includes: wire cable, fiber optic cable, metal cable; and the prediction unit is used for predicting the cable life of the target cable by adopting a life prediction model corresponding to the type of the target cable to obtain a prediction result.
Optionally, the apparatus further includes: the second determining unit is configured to determine a type of a cable to be tested before performing a cable lifetime prediction on the target cable by using a lifetime prediction model corresponding to the type of the target cable to obtain a prediction result, where the type of the cable to be tested includes: wire cable, fiber optic cable, metal cable; the second acquisition unit is used for performing an accelerated aging test on the cable to be tested based on the type of the cable to be tested and acquiring performance data of the cable to be tested obtained through the accelerated aging test; the establishing unit is used for establishing a life prediction model corresponding to the type of the cable to be tested based on performance data obtained by the cable to be tested through the accelerated aging test.
According to another aspect of the present application, there is provided a storage medium including a stored program, wherein the program performs the cable life prediction method of any one of the above.
According to another aspect of the present application, there is provided a processor for running a program, wherein the program, when run, performs the cable life prediction method of any one of the above.
In the embodiment of the application, a target cable to be subjected to cable life prediction is obtained; determining the type of the target cable; adopting a life prediction model corresponding to the type of the target cable to predict the life of the cable of the target cable, so as to obtain a prediction result; and before employing the life prediction model corresponding to the type of the target cable, the method further comprises: determining the type of the cable to be tested; performing an accelerated aging test on the cable to be tested based on the type of the cable to be tested, and acquiring performance data of the cable to be tested obtained through the accelerated aging test; and establishing a life prediction model corresponding to the type of the cable to be tested based on the performance data of the cable to be tested obtained through the accelerated ageing test. The method solves the technical problems that the best time for overhauling and replacing the OPGW optical cable cannot be predicted in the prior art, so that accidents occur frequently and the production efficiency of enterprises is low.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings, which are included to provide a further understanding of the application and are incorporated in and constitute a part of this specification, illustrate embodiments of the application and together with the description serve to explain the application and do not constitute a limitation on the application. In the drawings:
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of an alternative cable life prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic illustration of an alternative cable life prediction apparatus according to an embodiment of the present invention;
Detailed Description
In order that those skilled in the art will better understand the present invention, a technical solution in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings in which it is apparent that the described embodiments are only some embodiments of the present invention, not all embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be made by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of the present invention without making any inventive effort, shall fall within the scope of the present invention.
It should be noted that the terms "first," "second," and the like in the description and the claims of the present invention and the above figures are used for distinguishing between similar objects and not necessarily for describing a particular sequential or chronological order. It is to be understood that the data so used may be interchanged where appropriate such that the embodiments of the invention described herein may be implemented in sequences other than those illustrated or otherwise described herein. Furthermore, the terms "comprises," "comprising," and "having," and any variations thereof, are intended to cover a non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, method, system, article, or apparatus that comprises a list of steps or elements is not necessarily limited to those steps or elements expressly listed but may include other steps or elements not expressly listed or inherent to such process, method, article, or apparatus.
In accordance with an embodiment of the present invention, there is provided an embodiment of a cable life prediction method, it being noted that the steps shown in the flowchart of the figures may be performed in a computer system, such as a set of computer executable instructions, and, although a logical order is shown in the flowchart, in some cases, the steps shown or described may be performed in an order other than that shown or described herein.
Fig. 1 is a method for predicting life of a cable according to an embodiment of the present invention, as shown in fig. 1, the method comprising the steps of:
step S102, obtaining a target cable to be subjected to cable life prediction.
Step S103, determining a type of the target cable, where the type of the target cable includes: wire cable, fiber optic cable, metal cable.
And step S104, predicting the cable life of the target cable by adopting a life prediction model corresponding to the type of the target cable, so as to obtain a prediction result.
Further, before the cable life prediction is performed on the target cable by adopting the life prediction model corresponding to the type of the target cable, and a prediction result is obtained, the method further comprises: determining the type of the cable to be tested, wherein the type of the cable to be tested comprises: wire cable, fiber optic cable, metal cable; performing an accelerated aging test on the cable to be tested based on the type of the cable to be tested, and acquiring performance data of the cable to be tested obtained through the accelerated aging test; and establishing a life prediction model corresponding to the type of the cable to be tested based on the performance data obtained by the accelerated aging test of the cable to be tested.
At this time, the following three life prediction model building methods are provided for three cable types, namely, a wire cable, an optical fiber cable and a metal cable.
Firstly, under the condition that the type of the cable to be tested is an electric wire and cable, performing an accelerated aging test on the cable to be tested based on the type of the cable to be tested, and acquiring performance data of the cable to be tested obtained through the accelerated aging test, wherein the method comprises the following steps: performing thermal ageing tests of different temperature stresses on the cable to be tested; under each temperature stress, extracting test samples of the cables to be tested with different ageing durations; and carrying out a tensile test on each sample to be tested to obtain the cable elongation of the cable to be tested under different temperature stresses and different ageing durations.
Further, based on performance data obtained by the accelerated aging test of the cable to be tested, establishing a life prediction model corresponding to the type of the cable to be tested, including: fitting an exponential relation curve of aging time length and cable elongation of the cable to be tested under different temperature stresses by using linear regression; fitting parameters to be estimated in exponential relation curves corresponding to different temperature stresses by adopting a least square method, wherein the exponential relation curves are expressed as follows: τ is the ageing time, P is the cable elongation, c i 、d i Parameters to be estimated in an exponential relationship curve; determining the corresponding elongation at break when the cable to be tested fails, and bringing the elongation at break into an exponential relation curve of aging time length and cable elongation of the cable to be tested under different temperature stresses to obtain the breaking time length of the cable to be tested under different temperature stresses; bringing different temperature stresses and fracture duration of the cable to be tested under the different temperature stresses into a first preset formula; fitting parameters to be estimated in the first preset formula by adopting a least square method to obtain a life prediction formula corresponding to the type of the cable to be tested, wherein the life prediction formula is expressed as: log tau i ＝a+b/T i ，τ i Is warmDegree stress T i And the breaking time length, a and b are parameters to be estimated in a life prediction formula.
In order to make the technical solution of the present application more clearly understood by those skilled in the art, the following description will be made with reference to specific embodiments.
For the electric wires and cables, the failure cause is mainly heat, and is mainly caused by relatively large heat generated by the power equipment, such as electric energy loss, large temperature rise caused by partial discharge and the like, so that the cables are aged. Thermal aging deteriorates both electrical and mechanical properties of the insulating material, and the insulating life is reduced, but the most remarkable performance is also the change in mechanical properties such as elongation of the material. For example, XLPE materials are considered to end-of-life when the stretch ratio is reduced from an initial 400% -600% to 150%. Similarly, the OPGW cable was subjected to a thermal aging test by applying temperature as an acceleration factor. Therefore, life assessment for OPGW can utilize a constant accelerated thermal life test that improves test stress. The specific test and evaluation method are as follows:
1. Setting the relation between the thermal ageing life and the temperature of the insulating material obeys Arrhenius law, so that the acceleration model is an Arrhenius equation, namely:
wherein τ, T represents the aging life (h) and the aging temperature (K), and a, b are the undetermined coefficients, respectively.
The life data were obtained by performing a thermal aging test and a tensile test on the optical cable. The thermal aging test accelerates the aging of the optical cable sample under different stress levels to obtain the service life of the sample when the sample is aged and fails under different temperatures; then, a single sample is taken in a time-by-time manner in the aging process, and a tensile test is carried out on the single sample to obtain the elongation at break, namely the degree of the aging of the optical cable can be reflected by the elongation at break, and whether the single sample reaches the failure threshold value or not is determined. Finally, each stress level (temperature) can be extrapolated from the change in elongation at break over time to extrapolate the lifetime at its failure threshold, and thus the lifetime at normal stress levels, by the acceleration equation.
2. Fitting the respective temperature stress T by means of linear regression i The exponential relationship curve of aging time τ and elongation at break P of the material is:
wherein, P-elongation; tau-aging time; c i 、d i -parameters to be estimated of the curve at the respective stress level.
The linear regression adopts a least square method to fit the parameter c i 、d i ，
Transforming (3-2) into:
y＝d' i x+c' i (1-3)
wherein y is lnP; x is τ.
Parameter calculation is carried out through a least square method:
L xx ＝∑x 2 -(∑x) 2 /3 (1-4)
L yy ＝∑y 2 -(∑y) 2 /3 (1-5)
L xy ＝∑xy-(∑x)×(∑y)/3 (1-6)
the correlation test parameters were:
as for the elongation evaluation standard, the breaking elongation (delta L+L)/L is more than or equal to 1.5, wherein delta L is an elongation value, and L is an original value, of the rubber completely losing the service life, which is specified in China.
Thus, when the elongation P of the material decays to 50%, i.e. the cable fails, and each stress level T is extrapolated at this point i Aging time τ when the performance index is lowered i Substituting (1-4) to obtain:
then, the corresponding (T i ，τ i ) Is substituted into the acceleration equation (i.e., into the Arrhenius equation:) Taking y=lnτ, +.>The estimated parameters a, b are also found by the least squares fit described above.
Finally, substituting the normal stress level T 0 To extrapolate the normal stress level T 0 Age life τ at 0 The method comprises the following steps:
secondly, performing an accelerated aging test on the cable to be tested based on the type of the cable to be tested under the condition that the type of the cable to be tested is an optical fiber cable, and acquiring test data obtained by the accelerated aging test on the cable to be tested, wherein the method comprises the following steps: carrying out vibration tests on the cable to be tested under different tensile stresses; under each tensile stress, extracting test specimens of the cables to be tested with different ageing durations; and detecting fatigue performance of each sample to be tested to obtain the cable fatigue value of the cable to be tested under different tensile stress and different aging time.
Further, the performance data of the cable to be tested obtained through the accelerated aging test, and the life prediction model corresponding to the type of the cable to be tested is built, which comprises the following steps: fitting out different types of cables to be tested based on Weibull distributionUnder tensile stress, an aging time and cable fatigue value relation formula is provided; determining a corresponding failure fatigue value when the cable to be tested fails, and bringing the failure fatigue value into a relation formula of aging time length and cable fatigue value of the cable to be tested under different tensile stresses to obtain the failure time length of the cable to be tested under different tensile stresses; bringing different tensile stresses and the failure time of the cable to be tested under the different tensile stresses into a second preset formula; fitting parameters to be estimated in the second preset formula by adopting a least square method to obtain a life prediction formula corresponding to the type of the cable to be tested, wherein the life prediction formula is expressed as: log t s ＝-n s logσ s +log k s ， t s Is the tensile stress sigma s Time to failure, k s 、n s Is a parameter to be estimated in a life prediction formula.
In order to make the technical solution of the present application more clearly understood by those skilled in the art, the following description will be made with reference to specific embodiments.
The OPGW optical fiber selects an optical fiber fatigue crack growth theory to evaluate the service life, and the specific test and evaluation method are as follows:
1. considering that the failure of the optical fiber is the main cause of the failure of the optical cable, the key component is selected as the optical fiber inside the optical cable. Fatigue fracture of the optical fiber ultimately leads to failure of the fiber optic cable. Setting the time t for the optical fiber to reach fracture failure in static fatigue in an accelerated life test s And stress sigma s The relation of (2) is:
log t s ＝-n s logσ s +log k s (1-16), or
Wherein: k (k) s N is a static fatigue parameter s Is a constant parameter, sigma s Is a constant applied stress.
And (3) changing the tensile stress level by carrying out a vibration test on the optical cable sample, so that the fatigue resistance of the optical cable is gradually attenuated until life data under different stress levels are obtained. Because the service life of the optical cable under each stress level is subjected to Weibull distribution, the characteristic service life and the shape parameters under each stress level can be obtained through the service life data of the test. The characteristic life of normal stress levels is extrapolated using an acceleration model.
2. Setting the service life distribution of the optical cable to be approximately compliant with the Weibull distribution, wherein the distribution function and the density function are as follows:
F(t)＝1-exp{(t/η) m },t≥0
f(t)＝(m/η m )t m-1 exp{(t/η) m },t≥0 (1-18)
wherein: eta > 0 is the characteristic lifetime and m > 0 is the shape parameter.
The average lifetime E (T) of the weibull distribution is:
Through life parameter t 11 ,t 12 ,t 13 ,t 14 ,t 15 、t 21 ,t 22 ,t 23 ,t 24 ,t 25 、t 31 ,t 32 ,t 33 ,t 34 ,t 35 It is processed.
Statistical analysis of the weibull life data was performed under the following three assumptions:
normal stress level S of A1 product 0 And accelerating stress level S 1 ,…S k The life time is subjected to Weibull distribution, and the distribution function is
Wherein m is i > 0 is the shape parameter, η i And > 0 is the characteristic lifetime. This assumption shows that the stress level changes are such that they do not change the life distribution type
A2 is at S 0 And S is 1 ,…S k Failure mechanism of lower productIs unchanged. Since the shape parameters of the weibull distribution reflect failure mechanisms, this assumption means m 0 ＝m 1 ＝…＝m k
Lifetime characteristics eta of A3 products i And the applied stress level S i With the following acceleration models therebetween
Wherein a, b is the parameter to be estimated,is a known function of stress S. Time t for OPGW cable to reach break studied in the subject s And stress sigma s Is log t s ＝-n s logσ s +log k s The condition is satisfied.
Here, a Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) of life test data is initially employed
The lifetime distribution of the product is the weibull distribution W (m, η), and for a timed tail-biting sample, the likelihood functions of estimating m and η are:
the log likelihood function is
The likelihood equation is
From the following equation
Bringing (4-25) into a first equation in the likelihood equation and simplifying to obtain the following steps:
Finally, the life assessment model is:
to obtain a linear relationship, the logarithm is taken from both sides to obtain:
log t s ＝-n s logσ s +log k s (1-29)
wherein: n is n s Is a static fatigue parameter, k s Is a constant parameter, sigma s Is of constant applied stress
The number of stress levels employed in this experiment was 3, which resulted in an average lifetime value at 3 different stress levels, i.eAnd->
In log sigma s Is the horizontal axis, log t s Drawing 3 points on the general coordinate paper with the vertical axis
The 3 points are substantially in a straight line. At this time, the straight line l is at log t s Intercept on axis log k s Is a value of n s Is used for the estimation of the estimated value of (a). To get n s Two points can be arbitrarily selected on the graph, if the coordinates of the two points areAnd->Then n s The graph estimation value of (2) is
From the acceleration model:
wherein log k s ，n s Has been found from the above data. Can be obtained from normal stress level sigma s Is brought into a formula to calculate and research and obtain the normal life t of the OPGW optical cable s 。
Thirdly, performing an accelerated aging test on the cable to be tested based on the type of the cable to be tested under the condition that the type of the cable to be tested is a metal cable, and acquiring performance data of the cable to be tested obtained through the accelerated aging test, wherein the accelerated aging test comprises the following steps: performing ageing tests of different uniaxial tensile stresses on the cable to be tested; under each uniaxial tensile stress, extracting test samples of the cables to be tested with different ageing durations; and detecting fatigue performance of each sample to be tested to obtain the cable fatigue values of the cable to be tested under different uniaxial tensile stresses and different ageing durations.
Further, based on performance data obtained by the accelerated aging test of the cable to be tested, establishing a life prediction model corresponding to the type of the cable to be tested, including: determining fatigue time lengths of the cable to be tested under different uniaxial tensile stresses, wherein the failure time length is the time length required by the cable to be tested to reach a preset fatigue state under the uniaxial tensile stress; fitting a linear relation between different uniaxial tensile stresses and failure time of the cable to be tested under the different uniaxial tensile stresses by using linear regression; based on the fitted linear relation, different uniaxial tensile stresses and the failure time of the cable to be tested under different uniaxial tensile stresses are calculatedAnd carrying out a third preset formula, wherein the third preset formula is as follows: log N j ＝b-aS j Or logN j ＝b-alogS j ，N j Is the tensile stress S j The failure time length, a and b are parameters to be estimated in a life prediction formula; fitting parameters to be estimated in the third preset formula by using a least square method to obtain a life prediction formula corresponding to the type of the cable to be tested.
In order to make the technical solution of the present application more clearly understood by those skilled in the art, the following description will be made with reference to specific embodiments.
For common metal cables, most of failures are mainly fatigue fracture, namely, after the metal reaches a certain number of times under the action of cyclic load, the metal cables can be subjected to fatigue fracture and damage. The fatigue life of the metal cable was then evaluated by performing a uniaxial tensile test and solving the S-N curve. Therefore, for the optical cable having both the metallic material and the non-metallic material such as the OPGW optical fiber, metal fatigue is selected to evaluate the lifetime. The specific test and evaluation methods are as follows.
1. The accumulation of a great deal of practical experience shows that the relationship between the uniaxial fatigue life of the metal material and the stress obeys an S-N curve, namely the stress-life curve is taken as a life model. For metal parts, the S-N curve is often used to describe the fatigue performance. Namely:
log n=b-aS (1-34), or
log N＝b-a log S (1-35)
Wherein S is stress, N is cyclic coefficient or life, a and b are parameters to be solved. For selection of the model, the selection may be based on the best linearity.
It should be noted that: and (5) estimating the fatigue life according to the result by measuring the S-N curve. And performing a simulated fatigue test according to the bending fatigue test standard. The advantages are sample and time savings and lifetime can be estimated using a common S-N curve model.
2. Stress:
force applied to the sample:
for the two-point loading case, the force and stress correlation is calculated as follows:
stress:
force applied to the sample:
wherein M is bending moment, W is bending coefficient, P is transmitted force, L is arm length, d is sample diameter, mlx is sample leverage ratio, χ=0 for a two-point loaded simple beam.
The data were fitted by regression analysis, using one of the following formulas, depending on the best linearity decision.
log n=b-aS (1-42) or
log N＝b-a log S (1-43)
Where N is lifetime, b and a are both constants, and S is stress amplitude.
The embodiment of the application also provides a cable life prediction device, and the cable life prediction device can be used for executing the cable life prediction method provided by the embodiment of the application. The cable life prediction device provided by the embodiment of the application is described below.
Fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of a cable life prediction apparatus according to an embodiment of the present application. As shown in fig. 2, the apparatus includes: a first acquisition unit 10 for acquiring a target cable to be subjected to cable life prediction; a first determining unit 20, configured to determine a type of the target cable, where the type of the target cable includes: wire cable, fiber optic cable, metal cable; and the prediction unit 30 is configured to predict the cable life of the target cable by using a life prediction model corresponding to the type of the target cable, so as to obtain a prediction result.
Optionally, in the cable life prediction device provided by the embodiment of the present application, the device further includes: the second determining unit is configured to determine a type of a cable to be tested before performing a cable lifetime prediction on the target cable by using a lifetime prediction model corresponding to the type of the target cable to obtain a prediction result, where the type of the cable to be tested includes: wire cable, fiber optic cable, metal cable; the second acquisition unit is used for performing an accelerated aging test on the cable to be tested based on the type of the cable to be tested and acquiring performance data of the cable to be tested obtained through the accelerated aging test; the establishing unit is used for establishing a life prediction model corresponding to the type of the cable to be tested based on performance data obtained by the cable to be tested through the accelerated aging test.
According to the cable life prediction device provided by the embodiment of the application, the target cable for cable life prediction is obtained; determining the type of the target cable; adopting a life prediction model corresponding to the type of the target cable to predict the life of the cable of the target cable, so as to obtain a prediction result; and before employing the life prediction model corresponding to the type of the target cable, the method further comprises: determining the type of the cable to be tested; performing an accelerated aging test on the cable to be tested based on the type of the cable to be tested, and acquiring performance data of the cable to be tested obtained through the accelerated aging test; and establishing a life prediction model corresponding to the type of the cable to be tested based on the performance data of the cable to be tested obtained through the accelerated ageing test. The method solves the technical problems that the best time for overhauling and replacing the OPGW optical cable cannot be predicted in the prior art, so that accidents occur frequently and the production efficiency of enterprises is low.
The cable life prediction apparatus includes a processor and a memory, the first acquisition unit 10, the first determination unit 20, the prediction unit 30, and the like are stored in the memory as program units, and the processor executes the program units stored in the memory to realize corresponding functions.
The processor includes a kernel, and the kernel fetches the corresponding program unit from the memory. The inner core can be provided with one or more than one, and the technical problems that accidents frequently occur and the production efficiency of enterprises is low because the best time for overhauling and replacing the OPGW optical cable cannot be predicted in the prior art can be solved by adjusting the parameters of the inner core.
The memory may include volatile memory, random Access Memory (RAM), and/or nonvolatile memory, such as Read Only Memory (ROM) or flash memory (flash RAM), among other forms in computer readable media, the memory including at least one memory chip.
An embodiment of the present invention provides a storage medium having a program stored thereon, which when executed by a processor, implements the cable life prediction method.
The embodiment of the invention provides a processor which is used for running a program, wherein the cable life prediction method is executed when the program runs.
The foregoing embodiment numbers of the present application are merely for the purpose of description, and do not represent the advantages or disadvantages of the embodiments.
In the foregoing embodiments of the present application, the descriptions of the embodiments are emphasized, and for a portion of this disclosure that is not described in detail in this embodiment, reference is made to the related descriptions of other embodiments.
In the several embodiments provided in the present application, it should be understood that the disclosed technology may be implemented in other manners. The above-described embodiments of the apparatus are merely exemplary, and the division of the units, for example, may be a logic function division, and may be implemented in another manner, for example, a plurality of units or components may be combined or may be integrated into another system, or some features may be omitted, or not performed. Alternatively, the coupling or direct coupling or communication connection shown or discussed with each other may be through some interfaces, units or modules, or may be in electrical or other forms.
The units described as separate parts may or may not be physically separate, and parts displayed as units may or may not be physical units, may be located in one place, or may be distributed on a plurality of units. Some or all of the units may be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the solution of this embodiment.
In addition, each functional unit in the embodiments of the present invention may be integrated in one processing unit, or each unit may exist alone physically, or two or more units may be integrated in one unit. The integrated units may be implemented in hardware or in software functional units.
The integrated units, if implemented in the form of software functional units and sold or used as stand-alone products, may be stored in a computer readable storage medium. Based on such understanding, the technical solution of the present invention may be embodied essentially or in part or all of the technical solution or in part in the form of a software product stored in a storage medium, including instructions for causing a computer device (which may be a personal computer, a server, or a network device, etc.) to perform all or part of the steps of the method according to the embodiments of the present invention. And the aforementioned storage medium includes: a U-disk, a Read-Only Memory (ROM), a random access Memory (RAM, random Access Memory), a removable hard disk, a magnetic disk, or an optical disk, or other various media capable of storing program codes.
The foregoing is merely a preferred embodiment of the present invention and it should be noted that modifications and adaptations to those skilled in the art may be made without departing from the principles of the present invention, which are intended to be comprehended within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (6)
1. A method of cable life prediction comprising:
acquiring a target cable to be subjected to cable life prediction;
determining a type of the target cable, wherein the type of the target cable comprises: a wire cable, an optical fiber cable, or a metal cable;
adopting a life prediction model corresponding to the type of the target cable to predict the life of the target cable to obtain a prediction result;
wherein, before adopting the life prediction model corresponding to the type of the target cable to predict the cable life of the target cable, the method further comprises:
determining the type of the cable to be tested, wherein the type of the cable to be tested comprises: a wire cable, an optical fiber cable, or a metal cable;
performing an accelerated aging test on the cable to be tested based on the type of the cable to be tested, and acquiring performance data of the cable to be tested obtained through the accelerated aging test;
Based on performance data obtained by the cable to be tested through an accelerated aging test, establishing a life prediction model corresponding to the type of the cable to be tested;
under the condition that the type of the cable to be tested is an electric wire and cable, performing an accelerated aging test on the cable to be tested based on the type of the cable to be tested, and acquiring performance data of the cable to be tested obtained through the accelerated aging test, wherein the method comprises the following steps:
performing thermal ageing tests of different temperature stresses on the cable to be tested;
under each temperature stress, extracting test samples of the cables to be tested with different ageing durations;
carrying out a tensile test on each sample to be tested to obtain the cable elongation of the cable to be tested under different temperature stresses and different ageing durations;
based on performance data obtained by the accelerated aging test of the cable to be tested, establishing a life prediction model corresponding to the type of the cable to be tested, wherein the life prediction model comprises the following steps:
fitting an exponential relation curve of aging time length and cable elongation of the cable to be tested under different temperature stresses by using linear regression; fitting parameters to be estimated in exponential relation curves corresponding to different temperature stresses by adopting a least square method, wherein the exponential relation curves are expressed as follows: ，/>For the duration of aging->For cable elongation>、Parameters to be estimated in an exponential relationship curve;
determining the corresponding elongation at break when the cable to be tested fails, and bringing the elongation at break into an exponential relation curve of aging time length and cable elongation of the cable to be tested under different temperature stresses to obtain the breaking time length of the cable to be tested under different temperature stresses;
bringing different temperature stresses and fracture duration of the cable to be tested under the different temperature stresses into a first preset formula; fitting parameters to be estimated in the first preset formula by adopting a least square method to obtain a life prediction formula corresponding to the type of the cable to be tested, wherein the life prediction formula is expressed as:，/>is temperature stress->Duration of break at lower->、/>Is a parameter to be estimated in a life prediction formula.
2. A method of cable life prediction comprising:
acquiring a target cable to be subjected to cable life prediction;
determining a type of the target cable, wherein the type of the target cable comprises: a wire cable, an optical fiber cable, or a metal cable;
adopting a life prediction model corresponding to the type of the target cable to predict the life of the target cable to obtain a prediction result;
Wherein, before adopting the life prediction model corresponding to the type of the target cable to predict the cable life of the target cable, the method further comprises:
determining the type of the cable to be tested, wherein the type of the cable to be tested comprises: a wire cable, an optical fiber cable, or a metal cable;
performing an accelerated aging test on the cable to be tested based on the type of the cable to be tested, and acquiring performance data of the cable to be tested obtained through the accelerated aging test;
based on performance data obtained by the cable to be tested through an accelerated aging test, establishing a life prediction model corresponding to the type of the cable to be tested;
under the condition that the type of the cable to be tested is an optical fiber cable, performing an accelerated aging test on the cable to be tested based on the type of the cable to be tested, and acquiring performance data of the cable to be tested obtained through the accelerated aging test, wherein the method comprises the following steps:
carrying out vibration tests on the cable to be tested under different tensile stresses;
under each tensile stress, extracting test specimens of the cables to be tested with different ageing durations;
detecting fatigue performance of each sample to be tested to obtain cable fatigue values of the cable to be tested under different tensile stress and different aging time;
Based on performance data obtained by the accelerated aging test of the cable to be tested, establishing a life prediction model corresponding to the type of the cable to be tested, wherein the life prediction model comprises the following steps:
fitting a relation formula of aging time and cable fatigue value of the cable to be tested under different tensile stresses based on Weibull distribution;
determining a corresponding failure fatigue value when the cable to be tested fails, and bringing the failure fatigue value into a relation formula of aging time length and cable fatigue value of the cable to be tested under different tensile stresses to obtain the failure time length of the cable to be tested under different tensile stresses;
bringing different tensile stresses and the failure time of the cable to be tested under the different tensile stresses into a second preset formula; fitting parameters to be estimated in the second preset formula by adopting a least square method to obtain a life prediction formula corresponding to the type of the cable to be tested, wherein the life prediction formula is expressed as:，/>for tension stress->Duration of failure of->、/>Is a parameter to be estimated in a life prediction formula.
3. A method of cable life prediction comprising:
acquiring a target cable to be subjected to cable life prediction;
Determining a type of the target cable, wherein the type of the target cable comprises: a wire cable, an optical fiber cable, or a metal cable;
adopting a life prediction model corresponding to the type of the target cable to predict the life of the target cable to obtain a prediction result;
wherein, before adopting the life prediction model corresponding to the type of the target cable to predict the cable life of the target cable, the method further comprises:
determining the type of the cable to be tested, wherein the type of the cable to be tested comprises: a wire cable, an optical fiber cable, or a metal cable;
performing an accelerated aging test on the cable to be tested based on the type of the cable to be tested, and acquiring performance data of the cable to be tested obtained through the accelerated aging test;
based on performance data obtained by the cable to be tested through an accelerated aging test, establishing a life prediction model corresponding to the type of the cable to be tested;
under the condition that the type of the cable to be tested is a metal cable, performing an accelerated aging test on the cable to be tested based on the type of the cable to be tested, and acquiring performance data of the cable to be tested obtained through the accelerated aging test, wherein the method comprises the following steps:
Performing ageing tests of different uniaxial tensile stresses on the cable to be tested;
under each uniaxial tensile stress, extracting test samples of the cables to be tested with different ageing durations;
detecting fatigue performance of each sample to be tested to obtain cable fatigue values of the cable to be tested under different uniaxial tensile stresses and different ageing durations;
based on performance data obtained by the accelerated aging test of the cable to be tested, establishing a life prediction model corresponding to the type of the cable to be tested, wherein the life prediction model comprises the following steps:
determining the failure time of the cable to be tested under different uniaxial tensile stresses, wherein the failure time is the time required by the cable to be tested to reach a preset fatigue state under the uniaxial tensile stress;
fitting a linear relation between different uniaxial tensile stresses and failure time of the cable to be tested under the different uniaxial tensile stresses by using linear regression;
based on the fitted linear relation, bringing different uniaxial tensile stresses and the failure time of the cable to be tested under the different uniaxial tensile stresses into a third preset formula, wherein the third preset formula is as follows: Or (b)，/>For tension stress->Duration of failure of->、/>Parameters to be estimated in a life prediction formula;
fitting parameters to be estimated in the third preset formula by using a least square method to obtain a life prediction formula corresponding to the type of the cable to be tested.
4. A cable life prediction apparatus, wherein the cable life prediction apparatus performs the cable life prediction method according to any one of claim 1, claim 2, or claim 3, comprising:
the first acquisition unit is used for acquiring a target cable to be subjected to cable life prediction;
a first determining unit, configured to determine a type of the target cable, where the type of the target cable includes: a wire cable, an optical fiber cable, or a metal cable;
the prediction unit is used for predicting the cable life of the target cable by adopting a life prediction model corresponding to the type of the target cable to obtain a prediction result;
the apparatus further comprises:
the second determining unit is configured to determine a type of a cable to be tested before performing a cable lifetime prediction on the target cable by using a lifetime prediction model corresponding to the type of the target cable to obtain a prediction result, where the type of the cable to be tested includes: a wire cable, an optical fiber cable, or a metal cable;
The second acquisition unit is used for performing an accelerated aging test on the cable to be tested based on the type of the cable to be tested and acquiring performance data of the cable to be tested obtained through the accelerated aging test;
the establishing unit is used for establishing a life prediction model corresponding to the type of the cable to be tested based on performance data obtained by the cable to be tested through the accelerated aging test.
5. A storage medium comprising a stored program, wherein the program, when run, controls a device in which the storage medium is located to perform the cable life prediction method of any one of claim 1, claim 2 or claim 3.
6. A processor, wherein the processor is configured to run a program, wherein the program when run performs the cable life prediction method of any one of claim 1, claim 2 or claim 3.
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| CN115032488A (en) * | 2022-06-29 | 2022-09-09 | 深圳供电局有限公司 | Method, device and equipment for predicting insulation aging life of high-voltage submarine cable |
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