CN104794330A - Middle-high-voltage power cable residual life evaluation method considering stress randomness - Google Patents
Middle-high-voltage power cable residual life evaluation method considering stress randomness Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention relates to a middle-high-voltage power cable residual life evaluation method considering stress randomness. The method comprises the steps of determining thermal stress of a power cable considering the randomness, obtaining the stress of the power cable considering the randomness, and evaluating the residual life of the power cable based on a random model. According to the step of determining the thermal stress of the power cable considering the randomness, the thermal stress of the cable within step-size time of each stair is obtained; according to the step of obtaining the stress of the power cable considering the randomness, an electric field intensity curve, changing in a stair shape, of the power cable is obtained; according to the step of evaluating the residual life of the power cable based on the random model, a cable service life model and a cable electric heat degeneration amount random model of the power cable under the synergistic effect of electric stress and the thermal stress are obtained, and a mathematical expectation value and a variance of power cable service life degeneration cumulant are estimated. The method improves the accuracy of middle-high-voltage power cable residual life evaluation and achieves the technical effects of determining the cable residual life in cable asset management and accurately formulating a scientific replacing scheme.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of middle-high voltage power cable residue lifetime estimation method taking into account stress randomness, belong to power equipment state monitoring and evaluation areas.
Background technology
Along with the quickening of urbanization process and the continuous expansion of city size, electricity needs is in the trend increased fast.In order to meet the demand of large-capacity power transmission, middle high-pressure electric power cable is widely used in urban distribution network.Consider Supply Security, reliability and aesthetic property, adopt underground power cable in usual city, it mainly contains direct-burried, is embedded in cable duct or conduit and is embedded in several existence forms such as special cable passage.
Power cable is made up of core conductor, insulating material and protective seam, core conductor due to long-term current-carrying heating, and by external environment long lasting effect and cause insulating material aging and lost efficacy.At present, in electrical network the active time of a large amount of middle-high voltage power cable close to or more than 20 years, according to the designed life of 30-40, for ensureing the continuity of mains supply, reliability and security, carry out the research of cable remaining life Evaluation and Prediction, timely replacing aging or be about to lost efficacy cable, there is very important reality technology meaning.In addition, accurate evaluation and prediction cable remaining life can reduce O&M, the recondition expense of cable greatly, improve cable asset management level, therefore have significant economic benefit equally.
Current, estimation and the main physically based deformation model of prediction and the phenomenological model in middle-high voltage power cable serviceable life.Physical model refers to based on cable insulation material deterioration and the mechanism punctured, and provides applied specific stress and the funtcional relationship of breakdown time; Phenomenological model, based on the Phenomena Observation to cable life experimental result, determines the appropriate model meeting these results on this basis.But these two kinds of models exist limitation, main because it does not take into account the random character affecting cable life factor.The cable of actual motion is as the spatially complicated open system of continuous print, and the impact of its inside and outside brings many uncertain factors.Aging mainly powered, hot, the machinery of cable and the independent role of the factor such as environment or combined influence.Electricity factor mainly comprises the impact on insulating material such as cable working voltage, atmospheric over-voltage, switching overvoltage; Hot factor mainly comprises heat that the heat that produces because of various loss when cable line runs and external environment produce to the impact of insulating material; Mechanical factor mainly comprises outside destroy, bending radius is too small when laying, the defect left over when intermediate head and terminal construction and installation; And environmental factor mainly comprises the impacts such as moisture, corrosive substance, air, sunshine, radiation.These influence factors above-mentioned have typical random character.The remaining life of existing model and the more difficult accurate estimating and forecasting cable of method, needs a kind of cable residual life evaluation method taking into account random character newly badly.
Summary of the invention
The object of this invention is to provide a kind of consider medium and high voltage cable in actual moving process suffer the appraisal procedure of the power cable remaining life of electric stress, thermal stress random character, be mainly used in formulating the science of cable asset management and renewal reward theorem providing technical support.
For achieving the above object, the technical solution used in the present invention is:
A kind of middle-high voltage power cable residue lifetime estimation method taking into account stress randomness, its consider medium and high voltage cable in actual moving process suffer the random character of electric stress, thermal stress and for the appraisal procedure of carrying out of the remaining life to power cable, it is characterized in that: the method mainly comprises the power cable thermal stress taking into account randomness and determines, considers that the power cable electric stress of randomness is asked for and power cable remaining life based on probabilistic model estimates three steps;
(1) the power cable thermal stress taking into account randomness described in is determined to comprise:
A, obtain power cable by environmental factor variable effect continually varying electric load in time;
B, by discrete for the continually varying electric load of power cable be the load curve of stepped change;
C, acquisition power cable continually varying operating ambient temperature in time;
D, ask for the power cable energy of activation corresponding when different temperatures according to load curve and the operating ambient temperature of power cable;
E, the cable core running temperature asked for according to power cable corresponding energy of activation when different temperatures in each ladder step-length time;
F, ask for the cable thermal stress in each ladder step-length time according to the cable core running temperature in each ladder step-length time;
(2) the power cable electric stress of the consideration randomness described in is asked for and is comprised: obtain power cable continually varying electric field intensity value in time, and by its discrete be the electric field strength profile of stepped change;
(3) the power cable remaining life estimation based on stochastic model comprises:
1. the funtcional relationship of power cable thermal stress and cable life is asked for;
2. the funtcional relationship of power cable electric stress and cable life is asked for;
3. power cable electric stress and thermal stress synergic parameters are set;
4. power cable cable life model under electric stress and thermal stress act synergistically is obtained;
5. according to cable electric stress, the thermal stress asked for, estimate the accumulation amount of degradation of power cable under corresponding electric stress, thermal stress grade in each ladder step-length time, and then obtain power cable service life accumulation amount of degradation in any one load period;
6. based on theory of probability, take into account the randomness of power cable electric heating amount of degradation in each load period, the randomness of ambient temperature data, the randomness of electric field intensity data, set up the cable electric heating amount of degradation probabilistic model considering random character;
7. according to power cable cable life model and cable electric heating amount of degradation probabilistic model under electric stress and thermal stress act synergistically, and in conjunction with power cable days running, fault sky logarithmic data under this electric stress, thermal stress grade, the mathematical expectation of estimation power cable life deterioration semi-invariant within a period of time and variance, obtain the lifetime data of power cable.
Further, the method also comprise power cable service data be loaded into and power cable service life data store two steps; First carry out described power cable service data to be loaded into, carry out that the described power cable thermal stress taking into account randomness is determined, the power cable electric stress of described consideration randomness is asked for, the described power cable remaining life based on probabilistic model is estimated again successively, finally carry out described power cable service life data and store;
Described power cable service data is loaded into the cable running environment information data comprising and read local storage and store;
Described power cable service life data storage comprises and the power cable service life data calculated being stored in local storage.
Preferably, power cable service life data with the form of database file stored in local storage.
Preferably, the method also comprises carries out statistical study to each load period inner cable life deterioration semi-invariant data, and its mathematical distribution function of matching.
Preferably, the power cable electric stress of described consideration randomness is asked for and is also comprised: according to power cable continually varying electric field intensity value in time, obtains the critical electric field strength of power cable generation insulation ag(e)ing.
Preferably, the method is realized automatically by power cable state monitoring and intelligent evaluation system.
The present invention compared with prior art has following advantages: the method considers the random character of electric stress, thermal stress in each load period under Various Seasonal, varying environment comprehensively, improve the accuracy of medium and high voltage cable residual life estimation, solve in cable asset management and determine cable residual life and the technical barrier of accurate formulation science Replacing Scheme.This middle-high voltage power cable residue lifetime estimation method taking into account stress randomness more has actual value in cable operation management, the cable of serious aging can be allowed out of service in time, fault is effectively avoided to occur, after change accident, repairing is the maintenance based on state, reduce unplanned property to have a power failure, improve cable operational reliability, and then improve power supply quality.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Accompanying drawing 1 is the schematic flow sheet taking into account the middle-high voltage power cable residue lifetime estimation method of stress randomness of the present invention.
Accompanying drawing 2 is of the present inventionly take into account cable thermal stress defining method schematic flow sheet in the middle-high voltage power cable residue lifetime estimation method of stress randomness.
Accompanying drawing 3 is of the present inventionly take into account cable remaining life evaluation method schematic flow sheet in the middle-high voltage power cable residue lifetime estimation method of stress randomness.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with embodiment, the invention will be further described.
Embodiment one: a kind of middle-high voltage power cable residue lifetime estimation method taking into account stress randomness, comprise the power cable thermal stress taking into account randomness and determine, consider that the power cable electric stress of randomness is asked for and power cable remaining life based on probabilistic model estimates these steps, as shown in Figure 1.Due to the method by power cable state monitoring and intelligent evaluation system automatically realize, therefore its also comprise power cable service data loading and power cable service life data store this two step.Cable life refers to that power cable is brought into use as beginning time of experiencing to losing basic function, and cable residual life refers to power cable in use time of experiencing to losing basic function in a certain moment.
1, power cable service data is loaded into
Usually, cable service data is loaded into the cable running environment information data comprising and read and to be stored into DAT database file form in local storage.Before setting up cable thermal stress, electric stress model, first stored content to be loaded into.Specifically comprise: reading comprises the DAT database file of cable operation information and resolves this file.
2, the power cable thermal stress taking into account randomness is determined
The power cable thermal stress taking into account randomness is determined as shown in Figure 2, to comprise:
A, obtain power cable by environmental factor variable effect continually varying electric load in time;
B, by discrete for the continually varying electric load of power cable be the load curve of stepped change, the step-length (i.e. duration) of each ladder is no more than got continuous time;
C, acquisition power cable continually varying operating ambient temperature in time;
D, ask for the power cable energy of activation corresponding when different temperatures according to load curve and the operating ambient temperature of power cable; Energy of activation is a kind of index that reflect heat stress affects cable life, and be that cable also exists potential barrier from normal non-failure state to failure state transfer process, energy of activation is less, and the physical process of cable failure is more easily carried out; Energy of activation is larger, and accelerator coefficient is larger, is more easily accelerated and loses efficacy;
E, the cable core running temperature asked for according to power cable corresponding energy of activation when different temperatures in each ladder step-length time;
F, ask for the cable thermal stress in each ladder step-length time according to the cable core running temperature in each ladder step-length time.
3, consider that the power cable electric stress of randomness is asked for
Consider that the power cable electric stress of randomness is asked for, comprising:
Obtain power cable continually varying electric field intensity value in time, and on this basis by its discrete be the electric field strength profile of stepped change, this step also comprises according to power cable continually varying electric field intensity value in time, obtains the critical electric field strength of power cable generation insulation ag(e)ing.。
4, the power cable remaining life based on probabilistic model is estimated
As shown in Figure 3, the power cable remaining life estimation based on probabilistic model comprises:
1. the funtcional relationship of power cable thermal stress and cable life is asked for;
2. the funtcional relationship of power cable electric stress and cable life is asked for;
3. power cable electric stress and thermal stress synergic parameters are set;
4. power cable cable life model under electric stress and thermal stress act synergistically is obtained;
5. according to cable electric stress, the thermal stress asked for, estimate the accumulation amount of degradation of power cable under corresponding electric stress, thermal stress grade in each ladder step-length time, and then obtain the interior power cable service life accumulation amount of degradation of any one load period (as 24 hours);
6. in conjunction with cable days running, fault sky logarithmic data under this electric stress, thermal stress grade, based on theory of probability, take into account the randomness of power cable electric heating amount of degradation in each load period, the randomness of ambient temperature data, the randomness of electric field intensity data, set up the cable electric heating amount of degradation probabilistic model considering random character;
7. according to power cable cable life model and cable electric heating amount of degradation probabilistic model under electric stress and thermal stress act synergistically, and in conjunction with power cable days running, fault sky logarithmic data under this electric stress, thermal stress grade, and then statistical study is carried out to each load period inner cable life deterioration semi-invariant data, and its mathematical distribution function of matching, the mathematical expectation of estimation power cable life deterioration semi-invariant within a period of time and variance, thus obtain the lifetime data of power cable.
5, power cable service life data store
Usually, the lifetime data storage of power cable comprises and cable life data being stored in local storage with DAT database file form.After asking for the cable remaining life based on probabilistic model, result data is stored, as a part for the cable asset management system.
The present invention proposes a kind of middle-high voltage power cable residue lifetime estimation method taking into account stress randomness, the method considers the random character of electric stress, thermal stress in each load period under Various Seasonal, varying environment comprehensively, improve the accuracy of medium and high voltage cable residual life estimation, solve in cable asset management and determine cable residual life and the technical barrier of accurate formulation science Replacing Scheme.Consider that the quantitative evaluating method of the cable residual life of stress random character more has actual value in cable operation management, the cable of serious aging can be allowed out of service in time, fault is effectively avoided to occur, after change accident, repairing is the maintenance based on state, reduce unplanned property to have a power failure, improve cable operational reliability, and then improve power supply quality.
Above-described embodiment, only for technical conceive of the present invention and feature are described, its object is to person skilled in the art can be understood content of the present invention and implement according to this, can not limit the scope of the invention with this.All equivalences done according to Spirit Essence of the present invention change or modify, and all should be encompassed within protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (6)
1. take into account the middle-high voltage power cable residue lifetime estimation method of stress randomness for one kind, its consider medium and high voltage cable in actual moving process suffer the random character of electric stress, thermal stress and for the appraisal procedure of carrying out of the remaining life to power cable, it is characterized in that: the method mainly comprises the power cable thermal stress taking into account randomness and determines, considers that the power cable electric stress of randomness is asked for and power cable remaining life based on probabilistic model estimates three steps;
(1) the power cable thermal stress taking into account randomness described in is determined to comprise:
A, obtain power cable by environmental factor variable effect continually varying electric load in time;
B, by discrete for the continually varying electric load of power cable be the load curve of stepped change;
C, acquisition power cable continually varying operating ambient temperature in time;
D, ask for the power cable energy of activation corresponding when different temperatures according to load curve and the operating ambient temperature of power cable;
E, the cable core running temperature asked for according to power cable corresponding energy of activation when different temperatures in each ladder step-length time;
F, ask for the cable thermal stress in each ladder step-length time according to the cable core running temperature in each ladder step-length time;
(2) the power cable electric stress of the consideration randomness described in is asked for and is comprised: obtain power cable continually varying electric field intensity value in time, and by its discrete be the electric field strength profile of stepped change;
(3) the power cable remaining life estimation based on stochastic model comprises:
1. the funtcional relationship of power cable thermal stress and cable life is asked for;
2. the funtcional relationship of power cable electric stress and cable life is asked for;
3. power cable electric stress and thermal stress synergic parameters are set;
4. power cable cable life model under electric stress and thermal stress act synergistically is obtained;
5. according to cable electric stress, the thermal stress asked for, estimate the accumulation amount of degradation of power cable under corresponding electric stress, thermal stress grade in each ladder step-length time, and then obtain power cable service life accumulation amount of degradation in any one load period;
6. based on theory of probability, take into account the randomness of power cable electric heating amount of degradation in each load period, the randomness of ambient temperature data, the randomness of electric field intensity data, set up the cable electric heating amount of degradation probabilistic model considering random character;
7. according to power cable cable life model and cable electric heating amount of degradation probabilistic model under electric stress and thermal stress act synergistically, and in conjunction with power cable days running, fault sky logarithmic data under this electric stress, thermal stress grade, the mathematical expectation of estimation power cable life deterioration semi-invariant within a period of time and variance, obtain the lifetime data of power cable.
2. the middle-high voltage power cable residue lifetime estimation method taking into account stress randomness according to claim 1, is characterized in that: the method also comprises the loading of power cable service data and power cable service life data store two steps; First carry out described power cable service data to be loaded into, carry out that the described power cable thermal stress taking into account randomness is determined, the power cable electric stress of described consideration randomness is asked for, the described power cable remaining life based on probabilistic model is estimated again successively, finally carry out described power cable service life data and store;
Described power cable service data is loaded into the cable running environment information data comprising and read local storage and store;
Described power cable service life data storage comprises and the power cable service life data calculated being stored in local storage.
3. the middle-high voltage power cable residue lifetime estimation method taking into account stress randomness according to claim 2, is characterized in that: power cable service life data with the form of database file stored in local storage.
4. the middle-high voltage power cable residue lifetime estimation method taking into account stress randomness according to claim 1, it is characterized in that: the method also comprises carries out statistical study to each load period inner cable life deterioration semi-invariant data, and its mathematical distribution function of matching.
5. the middle-high voltage power cable residue lifetime estimation method taking into account stress randomness according to claim 1, it is characterized in that: the power cable electric stress of described consideration randomness is asked for and also comprised: according to power cable continually varying electric field intensity value in time, obtain the critical electric field strength of power cable generation insulation ag(e)ing.
6. the middle-high voltage power cable residue lifetime estimation method taking into account stress randomness according to claim 1, is characterized in that: the method is realized automatically by power cable state monitoring and intelligent evaluation system.
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| CN105718687A (en) * | 2016-01-26 | 2016-06-29 | 国家电网公司 | Power-cable electric-heat degradation simulation method based on seasonal loads and temperature cycles |
| CN109948170A (en) * | 2017-12-20 | 2019-06-28 | 中国科学院长春光学精密机械与物理研究所 | A kind of emulation mode of optical remote sensing camera thermal stability |
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| CN108319784B (en) * | 2018-02-05 | 2021-06-04 | 武汉大云物移智科技有限公司 | Cable line steel support whole life cycle cost evaluation method based on thermal fatigue |
| CN109902396A (en) * | 2019-03-04 | 2019-06-18 | 中石化天津液化天然气有限责任公司 | Cable analysis method and device |
| CN109902396B (en) * | 2019-03-04 | 2021-10-12 | 中国石油化工股份有限公司 | Cable analysis method and device |
| CN110245320A (en) * | 2019-06-04 | 2019-09-17 | 国网江苏省电力有限公司苏州供电分公司 | Electric automobile charging station inlet wire cable thermal life loss estimating method |
| CN113588452A (en) * | 2021-07-30 | 2021-11-02 | 国网青海省电力公司信息通信公司 | Cable life prediction method and device, processor and storage medium |
| CN113588452B (en) * | 2021-07-30 | 2023-10-27 | 国网青海省电力公司信息通信公司 | Cable life prediction method and device, processor and storage medium |
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