CN113378438A - Method and system for analyzing reliability of perforating string system and electronic equipment - Google Patents
Method and system for analyzing reliability of perforating string system and electronic equipment Download PDFInfo
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- CN113378438A CN113378438A CN202110675320.7A CN202110675320A CN113378438A CN 113378438 A CN113378438 A CN 113378438A CN 202110675320 A CN202110675320 A CN 202110675320A CN 113378438 A CN113378438 A CN 113378438A
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06F—ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
- G06F30/00—Computer-aided design [CAD]
- G06F30/20—Design optimisation, verification or simulation
- G06F30/23—Design optimisation, verification or simulation using finite element methods [FEM] or finite difference methods [FDM]
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- E—FIXED CONSTRUCTIONS
- E21—EARTH DRILLING; MINING
- E21B—EARTH DRILLING, e.g. DEEP DRILLING; OBTAINING OIL, GAS, WATER, SOLUBLE OR MELTABLE MATERIALS OR A SLURRY OF MINERALS FROM WELLS
- E21B43/00—Methods or apparatus for obtaining oil, gas, water, soluble or meltable materials or a slurry of minerals from wells
- E21B43/11—Perforators; Permeators
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- E—FIXED CONSTRUCTIONS
- E21—EARTH DRILLING; MINING
- E21B—EARTH DRILLING, e.g. DEEP DRILLING; OBTAINING OIL, GAS, WATER, SOLUBLE OR MELTABLE MATERIALS OR A SLURRY OF MINERALS FROM WELLS
- E21B2200/00—Special features related to earth drilling for obtaining oil, gas or water
- E21B2200/20—Computer models or simulations, e.g. for reservoirs under production, drill bits
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06F—ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
- G06F2119/00—Details relating to the type or aim of the analysis or the optimisation
- G06F2119/02—Reliability analysis or reliability optimisation; Failure analysis, e.g. worst case scenario performance, failure mode and effects analysis [FMEA]
Abstract
The invention relates to a method and a system for analyzing the reliability of a perforating string system, wherein the method comprises the following steps: establishing a reliability theoretical model of a perforation tubular column system in a normal stage and a damage defect stage based on a competitive failure mode; the competing failure modes are at least two failure conditions competing for the failure of the perforating string system, the failure conditions including: the injury increment reaches a threshold value and the duration of the injury state reaches the threshold value; simulating the dynamic process of the perforation tubular column system under impact by adopting a numerical simulation method, analyzing to obtain a numerical simulation calculation result, and extracting dynamic impact data of the perforation tubular column system according to the numerical simulation calculation result; and carrying out reliability evaluation on the perforating string system according to the dynamic impact data and the reliability theoretical model. The dynamic data of the perforation tubular column system subjected to impact can be effectively extracted, a reliability analysis model of the perforation tubular column system can be established, and the reliability of the tubular column system under the action of random impact load of perforation can be accurately evaluated.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of petroleum and natural gas in the energy industry, in particular to a method and a system for analyzing the reliability of a perforating string system and electronic equipment.
Background
Under the actual perforation working condition, a plurality of parts such as various underground instruments and devices, tool parts and the like which take the tubular column as a core form a complete complex system which can be called as a perforation tubular column system. The performance of the perforating string system can degrade over time during operation, and in addition, the performance can be influenced by the action of external conditions. Wherein, the perforation explosion impact is one of typical industrial mines, and the performance of the perforation string system is directly related to the success or failure of the field perforation operation. Therefore, the reliability modeling and analysis of the downhole string system under the impact action are needed, and the method has important theoretical value and practical significance for the safe and reliable evaluation of downhole perforation. On the basis, the loss occurring in the operation process of the perforating device is pre-judged in advance, and important reference can be provided for site perforating safety operation.
The theory of system reliability originated in the 30's of the 20 th century and was mostly applied to the military field initially. With the continuous progress of modern science and technology, the reliability theory itself is continuously developed and perfected. Meanwhile, the reliability analysis method is widely applied to various fields of national economy, and makes great contribution to the progress of each industrial department. Failure of the system can cause significant losses and even be difficult to compensate. Therefore, the reliability of the system is accurately evaluated, the risk of the system is judged in advance, and the system has immeasurable economic value and practical value in engineering practice. Due to the particularity of the underground perforation working condition, no effective way can be used for acquiring the data of the safety failure of the underground perforation tool at present, and the traditional reliability evaluation method needs to rely on a large amount of system failure data and is difficult to evaluate the reliability of a perforation string system. Therefore, a complete, effective, reasonable and accurate perforation string system reliability analysis method is established aiming at the actual operation condition of the perforation string system based on the system reliability theory.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the technical problems in the prior art, the invention provides a method and a system for analyzing the reliability of a perforating string system, which can effectively extract dynamic data of the perforating string system under impact, can establish a reliability analysis model of the perforating string system and accurately evaluate the reliability of the perforating string system under the action of random impact load.
According to a first aspect of the present invention, there is provided a method of reliability analysis of a perforating string system, comprising: step 1, establishing a reliability theoretical model of a perforation tubular column system in a normal stage and a damage defect stage based on a competition failure mode;
the competing failure modes are at least two failure conditions competing for failure of the perforating string system, the failure conditions comprising: the injury increment reaches a threshold value and the duration of the injury state reaches the threshold value;
step 2, simulating the dynamic process of the perforation tubular column system under impact by adopting a numerical simulation method, analyzing to obtain a numerical simulation calculation result, and extracting dynamic impact data of the perforation tubular column system according to the numerical simulation calculation result;
and 3, evaluating the reliability of the perforating string system according to the dynamic impact data and the reliability theoretical model.
On the basis of the technical scheme, the invention can be improved as follows.
Optionally, the process of establishing the reliability theoretical model in step 1 includes:
step 101, describing a failure process of the perforating string system by adopting a delay time concept, and establishing a service life mathematical calculation model of the perforating string system considering all failure conditions;
102, establishing a mathematical calculation model of the probability that the system does not fail in the normal stage of the perforating string system according to a service life mathematical calculation model of the perforating string system;
103, establishing a mathematical calculation model of the probability that all failure conditions do not occur at the damage defect stage of the perforating string system according to the mathematical calculation model of the probability that the perforating string system does not fail at the normal stage.
Optionally, in step 101, the mathematical calculation model of the life of the perforation string system considering all the failure conditions is as follows:
T＝min(X+Y,X+τ)；
wherein T represents the service life of the perforating string system, and X and Y represent the duration of a normal stage and a damage defect stage of the perforating string system respectively; τ → ∞ represents a failure of the perforating string system once a defect occurs, and τ → ∞ represents a failure of the perforating string system when the defect exceeds a damage threshold.
Optionally, in step 102, the mathematical calculation model of the probability that the perforation string system does not fail in the normal stage within time t is as follows:
wherein, R (t) represents the probability that the system does not fail within t time, P { } represents the probability that the internal function is established, fX(x) Representing a probability density function, RX(t)＝P{X>t}，RY(t-x,x)＝P{X+Y>t|X＝x}。
Optionally, in step 103, in the damage defect stage of the perforation string system, a mathematical calculation model of a probability that all failure conditions do not occur at time t is:
r (t) represents the probability that all failure conditions do not occur at the time t, n represents the number of times of impact of the perforating string system, phi () represents a perforating string system failure probability function, and LdRepresenting the time-based failure threshold value of the perforating string system, alpha representing the initial degradation amount of the perforating string system, muβRepresents the incremental degradation rate of the perforating string system, muWRepresenting the average value of the impact quantity of the perforating string system in the normal stage, lambda representing the reliability model coefficient of the perforating string system in the normal stage, sigmaβRepresenting the variance, σ, of the incremental degradation rate of the perforating string systemWRepresents the impact quantity variance, L, of the perforating string system in the normal stagefIndicating that the perforating string system is based on the impact failure threshold, muVRepresenting the average value, sigma, of impact damage quantity at damage defect stage of a perforating string systemVAnd representing the impact damage quantity variance of the damage defect stage of the perforating string system, and gamma representing the reliability model coefficient of the damage defect stage of the perforating string system.
Optionally, in step 2, according to the reliability theoretical model of the perforation string system, a numerical simulation method is used to simulate an impacted dynamic process of the perforation string system, and the process of analyzing to obtain a numerical simulation calculation result includes:
according to the reliability theoretical model of the perforating string system, combining the real operation working condition of the perforating string system, and reproducing the dynamic process of the perforating string under impact by adopting a numerical simulation method;
according to a numerical simulation method, a numerical modeling and calculation method of the perforating string system is formed by establishing a three-dimensional finite element perforating string system simulation calculation model and carrying out grid division;
and according to the numerical modeling and calculation method of the perforating string system, developing numerical simulation calculation of the perforating string system.
Optionally, the process of extracting dynamic impact data of the perforation string system in step 2 includes:
drawing a curve of the change of the equivalent stress of the top of the perforating string system subjected to impact along with time aiming at the numerical simulation calculation result of the perforating string system;
determining that the moment when the perforation tubular column system enters a damage defect stage from a normal stage is the moment when the equivalent stress peak value exceeds the yield strength of the oil pipe for the first time according to the curve;
and determining the impact times of the perforating string system in the normal stage and the damage defect stage respectively.
Optionally, step 3 includes:
determining a failure threshold value and a defect threshold value of the equivalent stress of the top of the perforating string system subjected to impact and a duration time threshold value of a damage defect stage, and adopting the reliability theoretical model to calculate the probability that the perforating string system fails in a normal stage and the damage defect stage respectively under each failure condition, so as to form a reliability evaluation result of the perforating string system.
According to a second aspect of the present invention there is provided a system for reliability analysis of a perforating string system, comprising: the system comprises a reliability theoretical model establishing module, a dynamic impacted numerical simulation module and a reliability evaluation module;
the reliability theoretical model establishing module is used for establishing a reliability theoretical model of a perforation tubular column system normal stage and a damage defect stage based on a competition failure mode;
the competing failure modes are at least two failure conditions competing for failure of the perforating string system, the failure conditions comprising: the injury increment reaches a threshold value and the duration of the injury state reaches the threshold value;
the dynamic impacted numerical simulation module is used for simulating an impacted dynamic process of the perforating string system by adopting a numerical simulation method, analyzing to obtain a numerical simulation calculation result, and extracting dynamic impacted data of the perforating string system according to the numerical simulation calculation result;
and the reliability evaluation module is used for evaluating the reliability of the perforation string system according to the dynamic impact data and the reliability theoretical model.
According to a third aspect of the present invention, there is provided an electronic device comprising a memory, a processor for implementing the steps of the method of perforating string system reliability analysis when executing a computer management class program stored in the memory.
According to the method, the system, the electronic equipment and the storage medium for analyzing the reliability of the perforating string system, firstly, the degradation process of the perforating string system is accurately and comprehensively described by adopting a system reliability theory according to the real working state of the perforating string system; then, based on the described degradation process of the perforating string system, considering two modes of time-based degradation failure and perforating explosion impact failure of the perforating string system, and constructing a competitive failure mode of the perforating string system; then, according to a competitive failure mode of the perforating string system, incorporating a delay time concept into the model, and establishing a reliability theoretical analysis model of the normal stage and the damage defect stage of the perforating string system; then, according to a perforating string system reliability theoretical model, reproducing an impacted dynamic process of a downhole perforating string system by adopting a numerical simulation method, establishing a three-dimensional finite element simulation calculation model, forming a set of complete numerical simulation calculation method, carrying out large-scale numerical simulation calculation, and carrying out comprehensive analysis on numerical simulation calculation results; furthermore, according to a large number of numerical simulation calculation results, dynamic impact data (including equivalent stress, perforation impact load and the like) of the perforation string are effectively extracted, a data curve is drawn, and the impact times of the perforation string system, external loads corresponding to impact and the like are deeply analyzed; and finally, according to the data analysis result, applying the established reliability theoretical model of the perforating string system, performing reliability evaluation aiming at the perforating string system, and forming a reliability evaluation result. In conclusion, the invention accurately describes the degradation process of the actual perforating string system, constructs the competition failure mode of the perforating string system, establishes the reliability theoretical model of the normal stage and the damage defect stage of the perforating string system, reproduces the dynamic impact process of the perforating string system by combining a numerical simulation method, and obtains the dynamic impact data of the perforating string system, and on the basis, the reliability analysis method of the perforating string system is comprehensively formed, thereby providing an accurate and reasonable research method for analyzing the reliability problem under the perforating condition of the oil-gas well and providing important reference for the research of similar problems in the engineering field.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for reliability analysis of a perforating string system provided by an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of two stages of failure of a perforating string system provided by an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of a three-dimensional finite element calculation model of a perforating string system according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a graphical illustration of equivalent stress at the top of a perforating string system as a function of time in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 5 is a block diagram of a system for reliability analysis of a perforating string system provided by an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 6 is a schematic diagram of a hardware structure of a possible electronic device according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The principles and features of this invention are described below in conjunction with the following drawings, which are set forth by way of illustration only and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention.
Fig. 1 is a flow chart of a method for analyzing the reliability of a perforating string system provided by the invention, and as shown in fig. 1, the method comprises the following steps:
step 1, establishing a reliability theoretical model of a perforation tubular column system in a normal stage and a damage defect stage based on a competition failure mode.
The competing failure modes are at least two failure conditions competing for the failure of the perforating string system, the failure conditions including: the increment of damage reaches a threshold and the duration of the damage state reaches a threshold.
Specifically, the method for analyzing the reliability of the perforating string system provided by the invention adopts a system reliability theory to describe the degradation process of the perforating string system under the actual operation condition, and the specific method comprises the following steps:
in the time sequence detonation process of the perforating charge, the explosive can generate continuous explosion in a limited space under a well, and the mutual superposition and interference among the explosive are also included. The whole process can be described as continuous coupling and superposition in a certain time range, the characteristic of impact load on the perforating string system is randomness, and the Poisson process is adopted to describe the degradation process of the perforating string system.
The degradation process of the perforating string system takes an impact point, a defect point and a failure point as time nodes, and the degradation conditions of different stages are discussed respectively. Since the individual charges of the charges are generally the same, the impact of each charge detonation on the perforating string is considered consistent. Thus, the random ballistic process generated by a perforation detonation can be viewed on a time and space scale as a homogeneous poisson process.
Fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of two stages of failure of the perforating string system provided by the embodiment of the invention, and in combination with fig. 2, based on the homogeneous poisson process, the perforating string system is divided into a normal stage and a damage defect stage according to different time nodes.
And then constructing a competitive failure mode according to the degradation process of the perforating string system, wherein the specific method comprises the following steps:
the normal state system of the perforating string system runs normally and the operation is smooth. The defect state system has defects and belongs to a state before the fault; and in a fault state, the system cannot normally operate and is in a failure state. In the case of a perforating string system, the presence of defects means that the perforating string system is damaged but still in normal use, i.e., in a pre-failure state. When the perforation tubular column system can not work normally, the system is damaged completely, and the failure phenomenon occurs.
The perforating string system is in a shaft liquid environment for a long time in the operation process, and the working condition and the loading environment are quite complex. Some downhole perforation tools may exhibit failure mechanisms such as corrosion, wear, fatigue, and overloading. Over time, the performance of the perforating string system can degrade due to various factors. At the same time, perforating string systems require the detonation of the charges during operation, and the systems are therefore subject to impact from explosive loads. On one hand, the impact strength of perforation explosion which can be resisted by the underground perforation tubular column system is reduced due to natural degradation, and the failure probability is increased; on the other hand, when the underground perforating string system is impacted by explosion, the instant degradation caused by the impact accelerates the degradation, and the system strength is reduced due to the impact, so that the failure threshold value is changed.
When the random degradation increment of the perforation string system and the degradation amount of the perforation string system are accumulated to a certain degree, namely when the random degradation increment and the degradation amount of the perforation string system are greater than a certain threshold value, the system can generate degradation failure, namely soft failure. When the system is subjected to too great an impact or too often, immediate failure and sudden loss of function, i.e., hard failure, may occur. The continuous degradation of the system performance is inevitable in the using process, the sudden failure is accidental, and when the two failures exist simultaneously, the system is in a competitive failure state, so that a competitive failure mode of the perforating string system is formed.
And 2, simulating the dynamic process of the perforation tubular column system under impact by adopting a numerical simulation method, analyzing to obtain a numerical simulation calculation result, and extracting dynamic impact data of the perforation tubular column system according to the numerical simulation calculation result.
And 3, evaluating the reliability of the perforating string system according to the dynamic impact data and the reliability theoretical model.
Based on the defects in the background art, the embodiment of the invention provides a method for analyzing the reliability of a perforating string system, and firstly, according to the real working state of the perforating string system, the degradation process of the perforating string system is accurately and comprehensively described by adopting a system reliability theory; then, based on the described degradation process of the perforating string system, considering two modes of time-based degradation failure and perforating explosion impact failure of the perforating string system, and constructing a competitive failure mode of the perforating string system; then, according to a competitive failure mode of the perforating string system, incorporating a delay time concept into the model, and establishing a reliability theoretical analysis model of the normal stage and the damage defect stage of the perforating string system; then, according to a perforating string system reliability theoretical model, reproducing an impacted dynamic process of a downhole perforating string system by adopting a numerical simulation method, establishing a three-dimensional finite element simulation calculation model, forming a set of complete numerical simulation calculation method, carrying out large-scale numerical simulation calculation, and carrying out comprehensive analysis on numerical simulation calculation results; furthermore, according to a large number of numerical simulation calculation results, dynamic impact data (including equivalent stress, perforation impact load and the like) of the perforation string are effectively extracted, a data curve is drawn, and the impact times of the perforation string system, external loads corresponding to impact and the like are deeply analyzed; and finally, according to the data analysis result, applying the established reliability theoretical model of the perforating string system, performing reliability evaluation aiming at the perforating string system, and forming a reliability evaluation result. In conclusion, the invention accurately describes the degradation process of the actual perforating string system, constructs the competition failure mode of the perforating string system, establishes the reliability theoretical model of the normal stage and the damage defect stage of the perforating string system, reproduces the dynamic impact process of the perforating string system by combining a numerical simulation method, and obtains the dynamic impact data of the perforating string system, and on the basis, the reliability analysis method of the perforating string system is comprehensively formed, thereby providing an accurate and reasonable research method for analyzing the reliability problem under the perforating condition of the oil-gas well and providing important reference for the research of similar problems in the engineering field.
Example 1
Embodiment 1 provided by the present invention is an embodiment of a method for analyzing the reliability of a perforating string system, and as can be seen in fig. 2, the embodiment includes:
step 1, establishing a reliability theoretical model of a perforation tubular column system in a normal stage and a damage defect stage based on a competition failure mode.
The competing failure modes are at least two failure conditions competing for the failure of the perforating string system, the failure conditions including: the increment of damage reaches a threshold and the duration of the damage state reaches a threshold.
In one possible embodiment, step 1 includes:
and step 101, describing the failure process of the perforating string system by adopting a delay time concept, and establishing a life mathematical calculation model of the perforating string system considering all failure conditions.
Specifically, the mathematical calculation model of the life of the perforating string system considering all failure conditions is as follows:
T＝min(X+Y,X+τ)。
wherein T represents the service life of the perforating string system, and X and Y represent the duration of the normal stage and the damage defect stage of the perforating string system respectively; and tau is 0 to indicate that the perforation string system fails once a defect occurs, and is suitable for describing that only one stage system failure condition is considered, and tau is → infinity indicates that the system fails when the defect of the perforation string system exceeds a damage threshold, namely only one failure criterion is considered.
And 102, establishing a mathematical calculation model of the probability that the system does not fail in the normal stage of the perforating string system according to the service life mathematical calculation model of the perforating string system.
Specifically, according to the impact times occurring in the time interval (0, t), a survival function perforating string system of the perforating string system in the normal stage can be constructed, and the mathematical calculation model of the probability that the system does not break down in the time t is as follows:
wherein, R (t) represents the probability that the system does not fail within t time, P { } represents the probability that the internal function is established, fX(x) Representing a probability density function, RX(t)＝P{X>t}，RY(t-x,x)＝P{X+Y>t|X＝x}。
And 103, establishing a mathematical calculation model of the probability that all failure conditions do not occur at the damage defect stage of the perforating string system according to the mathematical calculation model of the probability that the perforating string system does not fail at the normal stage.
Specifically, according to the reliability modeling process of the normal stage of the perforating string system and the impact times appearing in the time interval (x, t), a reliability theoretical model of the damage defect stage of the perforating string system is established, and the mathematical calculation model of the probability that all failure conditions do not occur at the moment t of the damage defect stage of the perforating string system is as follows:
r (t) represents the probability that all failure conditions do not occur at the time t, n represents the number of times of impact of the perforating string system, phi () represents a perforating string system failure probability function, and LdRepresenting the time-based failure threshold value of the perforating string system, alpha representing the initial degradation amount of the perforating string system, muβRepresents the incremental degradation rate of the perforating string system, muWRepresenting the average value of the impact quantity of the perforating string system in the normal stage, lambda representing the reliability model coefficient of the perforating string system in the normal stage, sigmaβRepresenting the variance, σ, of the incremental degradation rate of the perforating string systemWRepresents the impact quantity variance, L, of the perforating string system in the normal stagefIndicating that the perforating string system is based on the impact failure threshold, muVRepresenting the average value, sigma, of impact damage quantity at damage defect stage of a perforating string systemVRepresenting the variance of impact damage amount in the damage defect stage of the perforating string system, and gamma representing the perforating string systemAnd (5) reliability model coefficients of the system defect damage stage.
And 2, simulating the dynamic process of the perforation tubular column system under impact by adopting a numerical simulation method, analyzing to obtain a numerical simulation calculation result, and extracting dynamic impact data of the perforation tubular column system according to the numerical simulation calculation result.
In a possible embodiment mode, according to the reliability theoretical model of the perforating string system, a numerical simulation method is adopted to simulate the dynamic process of the perforating string system under impact, and the process of analyzing to obtain the numerical simulation calculation result comprises the following steps:
and (3) according to a reliability theoretical model of the perforating string system, combining the real operation condition of the perforating string system, and reproducing the dynamic process of the perforating string under impact by adopting a numerical simulation method.
According to the numerical simulation method, a numerical modeling and calculation method of the perforating string system is formed by establishing a three-dimensional finite element perforating string system simulation calculation model and carrying out grid division.
As shown in fig. 3, which is a schematic diagram of a three-dimensional finite element calculation model of the perforating string system provided by the present invention, it can be known from fig. 3 that the modeling process refers to the actual perforating operation condition on site, and the string size and the operation parameters are completely consistent with the actual perforating string system. The method is characterized in that a Lagrange algorithm is combined with an ALE algorithm in the mesh division process of the numerical model of the perforating string system, fluid region common nodes are adopted for model mesh refinement, material parameters and a selected state equation are set according to actual conditions, boundary constraint conditions are accurately applied, and fluid-solid coupling contact surfaces are set, so that the numerical modeling and calculating method of the perforating string system is formed.
And (4) according to the numerical modeling and calculation method of the perforating string system, developing numerical simulation calculation of the perforating string system.
According to the numerical modeling and calculation method of the perforating string system, the numerical model is led into finite element software, numerical simulation calculation of the perforating string system is carried out on a large-scale server, corresponding keywords are defined, and preliminary processing of data is carried out based on the calculation result.
The process of extracting dynamic impacted data of the perforating string system comprises the following steps:
and (4) aiming at the numerical simulation calculation result of the perforating string system, drawing a curve of the time-varying equivalent stress of the top of the perforating string system.
The equivalent stress change of the perforation tubular column system has the characteristic of periodicity, the bottom, the middle part and the top of the perforation tubular column system respond in sequence, and the maximum equivalent stress peak value appears at the top due to the fact that shock waves are reflected at the fixed end part. Therefore, equivalent stress data is extracted from the top of the perforation string system according to the structural blocks at the vulnerable part of the perforation string system, namely the top of the string.
And determining the moment when the perforation string system enters the damage defect stage from the normal stage as the moment when the equivalent stress peak value firstly exceeds the yield strength of the oil pipe according to the curve.
Fig. 4 is a schematic diagram showing equivalent stress at the top of a perforating string system provided by the embodiment of the invention along with time, and in the embodiment given in fig. 4, a broken line represents the yield limit 536MPa of the perforating string. When the equivalent stress of the perforating string exceeds the yield limit, the string system enters a damage defect stage. And considering each peak point on the equivalent stress curve of the perforating string as one impact action, the total number of impacts received by the string system is 38. In the time period of 0-3100 mu s, the equivalent stress peak value of the top of the pipe column is always lower than the yield limit of the oil pipe, and the operation is a normal operation stage. Starting from 3100 mu s, the peak value of the equivalent stress of the tubular column exceeds the yield strength of the oil pipe for the first time, and the damage defect of the perforation tubular column system appears at the moment and enters the damage defect development stage.
And determining the impact times of the perforating string system in the normal stage and the damage defect stage respectively.
In the example shown in fig. 4, the perforation string system was subjected to 22 impacts in the normal phase and 16 impacts in the damage defect phase. On the basis of acquiring the impact data of the perforating string system, extracting the external load data of the string at the impact moment, and loading by taking the annular pressure of the oil pipe section as the external load of the string.
And 3, evaluating the reliability of the perforating string system according to the dynamic impact data and the reliability theoretical model.
In one possible embodiment, step 3 includes:
determining a failure threshold value and a defect threshold value of the equivalent stress of the top of the perforating string system subjected to impact and a duration time threshold value of a damage defect stage, and calculating the probability of the perforating string system failing not to occur under each failure condition in a normal stage and the damage defect stage respectively by adopting a reliability theoretical model to form a reliability evaluation result of the perforating string system.
According to the dynamic impact data of the perforating string system, the failure threshold value of the perforating string system is determined to be 500, the defect threshold value is 300, and the duration threshold value of the damage defect stage is 500. And according to the threshold data, calculating the probability that the perforating string system does not have the duration or impact failure, namely the total failure probability, by adopting a reliability theoretical model. Because the perforating string system competes for failure modes, the reliability of the perforating string system as a whole is lower than that based on duration and shock failure alone.
And respectively calculating the probability that the perforating string system fails based on the duration and the probability that the perforating string system fails based on the impact according to the reliability models of the normal stage and the defect stage of the perforating string system to form a reliability evaluation result of the perforating string system.
In the embodiment shown in FIG. 4, the probability of failure of the perforating string system based on duration is 1, i.e., the perforating string system is in an intact state, during the (0, 500) time period. During the (500, 2500) time period, the probability of the perforating string system failing based on duration is significantly reduced. In the (0, 100) time period, the probability that the perforation string system does not fail based on impact is 1; at (100, 2500), the probability of failure of the perforating string system upon impact is not significantly reduced.
Comparing the reliability results of the two phases, it can be seen that the probability of failure of the perforating string system based on shock is greater than the probability of failure based on duration, i.e., the perforating string is more likely to fail due to shock rather than its duration.
Example 2
Embodiment 2 of the present invention is an embodiment of a system for analyzing reliability of a perforating string system, and fig. 5 is a system structure diagram of a system for analyzing reliability of a perforating string system, and as can be seen from fig. 5, the embodiment of the system includes: the device comprises a reliability theoretical model establishing module, a dynamic impacted numerical simulation module and a reliability evaluation module.
And the reliability theoretical model establishing module is used for establishing a reliability theoretical model of the perforation string system in a normal stage and a damage defect stage based on a competitive failure mode.
The competing failure modes are at least two failure conditions competing for the failure of the perforating string system, the failure conditions including: the increment of damage reaches a threshold and the duration of the damage state reaches a threshold.
And the dynamic impacted numerical simulation module is used for simulating an impacted dynamic process of the perforating string system by adopting a numerical simulation method, analyzing to obtain a numerical simulation calculation result, and extracting dynamic impacted data of the perforating string system according to the numerical simulation calculation result.
And the reliability evaluation module is used for evaluating the reliability of the perforating string system according to the dynamic impact data and the reliability theoretical model.
It can be understood that the system for analyzing the reliability of the perforating string system provided by the present invention corresponds to the method for analyzing the reliability of the perforating string system provided by the foregoing embodiments, and the relevant technical features of the system for analyzing the reliability of the perforating string system may refer to the relevant technical features of the method for analyzing the reliability of the perforating string system, and will not be described herein again.
Referring to fig. 6, fig. 6 is a schematic view of an embodiment of an electronic device according to an embodiment of the invention. As shown in fig. 6, an embodiment of the present invention provides an electronic device, which includes a memory 1310, a processor 1320, and a computer program 1311 stored in the memory 1320 and executable on the processor 1320, where the processor 1320 executes the computer program 1311 to implement the following steps: step 1, establishing a reliability theoretical model of a perforation tubular column system in a normal stage and a damage defect stage based on a competition failure mode; the competing failure modes are at least two failure conditions competing for the failure of the perforating string system, the failure conditions including: the injury increment reaches a threshold value and the duration of the injury state reaches the threshold value; step 2, simulating the dynamic process of the perforation tubular column system under impact by adopting a numerical simulation method, analyzing to obtain a numerical simulation calculation result, and extracting dynamic impact data of the perforation tubular column system according to the numerical simulation calculation result; and 3, evaluating the reliability of the perforating string system according to the dynamic impact data and the reliability theoretical model.
The method, the system and the electronic equipment for analyzing the reliability of the perforating string system accurately describe the degradation process of the real perforating string system, establish a reliability theoretical analysis model of a normal stage and a damage defect stage of the perforating string system by considering two modes of time-based degradation failure and perforating explosion impact failure, and acquire dynamic impact data of the perforating string system by combining a numerical simulation method, thereby carrying out reliability evaluation on the perforating string system and obtaining a reliability evaluation result. Therefore, a new complete and effective research method for analyzing the reliability of the perforating string system is formed, and an effective means is provided for deeply analyzing the reliability problem of the perforating string system and other similar dynamic impact reliability problems in the engineering field.
It should be noted that, in the foregoing embodiments, the descriptions of the respective embodiments have respective emphasis, and reference may be made to relevant descriptions of other embodiments for parts that are not described in detail in a certain embodiment.
As will be appreciated by one skilled in the art, embodiments of the present invention may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present invention may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present invention may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, and the like) having computer-usable program code embodied therein.
The present invention is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the invention. It will be understood that each flow and/or block of the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, and combinations of flows and/or blocks in the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded computer, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including instruction means which implement the function specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer implemented process such that the instructions which execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
While preferred embodiments of the present invention have been described, additional variations and modifications in those embodiments may occur to those skilled in the art once they learn of the basic inventive concepts. Therefore, it is intended that the appended claims be interpreted as including preferred embodiments and all such alterations and modifications as fall within the scope of the invention.
It will be apparent to those skilled in the art that various changes and modifications may be made in the present invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention. Thus, if such modifications and variations of the present invention fall within the scope of the claims of the present invention and their equivalents, the present invention is also intended to include such modifications and variations.
Claims (10)
1. A method of reliability analysis of a perforating string system, the method comprising:
step 1, establishing a reliability theoretical model of a perforation tubular column system in a normal stage and a damage defect stage based on a competition failure mode;
the competing failure modes are at least two failure conditions competing for failure of the perforating string system, the failure conditions comprising: the injury increment reaches a threshold value and the duration of the injury state reaches the threshold value;
step 2, simulating the dynamic process of the perforation tubular column system under impact by adopting a numerical simulation method, analyzing to obtain a numerical simulation calculation result, and extracting dynamic impact data of the perforation tubular column system according to the numerical simulation calculation result;
and 3, evaluating the reliability of the perforating string system according to the dynamic impact data and the reliability theoretical model.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the step 1 of establishing the reliability theoretical model comprises:
step 101, describing a failure process of the perforating string system by adopting a delay time concept, and establishing a service life mathematical calculation model of the perforating string system considering all failure conditions;
102, establishing a mathematical calculation model of the probability that the system does not fail in the normal stage of the perforating string system according to a service life mathematical calculation model of the perforating string system;
103, establishing a mathematical calculation model of the probability that all failure conditions do not occur at the damage defect stage of the perforating string system according to the mathematical calculation model of the probability that the perforating string system does not fail at the normal stage.
3. The method of claim 2, wherein in step 101, the mathematical computational model of the life of the perforating string system that takes into account all of the failure conditions is:
T＝min(X+Y,X+τ)；
wherein T represents the service life of the perforating string system, and X and Y represent the duration of a normal stage and a damage defect stage of the perforating string system respectively; τ → ∞ represents a failure of the perforating string system once a defect occurs, and τ → ∞ represents a failure of the perforating string system when the defect exceeds a damage threshold.
4. The method of claim 3, wherein in the step 102, the mathematical calculation model of the probability that the perforation string system does not fail in the normal stage and in the time t is as follows:
wherein, R (t) represents the probability that the system does not fail within t time, P { } represents the probability that the internal function is established, fX(x) Representing a probability density function, RX(t)＝P{X>t}，RY(t-x,x)＝P{X+Y>t|X＝x}。
5. The method of claim 4, wherein in step 103, the mathematical calculation model of the probability that all the failure conditions do not occur at time t of the perforation string system in the damage defect stage is as follows:
r (t) represents the probability that all failure conditions do not occur at the time t, n represents the number of times of impact of the perforating string system, phi () represents a perforating string system failure probability function, and LdIndicating perforating string system based on timeFailure threshold, alpha, represents the amount of initial degradation of the perforating string system, muβRepresents the incremental degradation rate of the perforating string system, muWRepresenting the average value of the impact quantity of the perforating string system in the normal stage, lambda representing the reliability model coefficient of the perforating string system in the normal stage, sigmaβRepresenting the variance, σ, of the incremental degradation rate of the perforating string systemWRepresents the impact quantity variance, L, of the perforating string system in the normal stagefIndicating that the perforating string system is based on the impact failure threshold, muVRepresenting the average value, sigma, of impact damage quantity at damage defect stage of a perforating string systemVAnd representing the impact damage quantity variance of the damage defect stage of the perforating string system, and gamma representing the reliability model coefficient of the damage defect stage of the perforating string system.
6. The method of claim 1, wherein in the step 2, a numerical simulation method is adopted to simulate the dynamic process of the perforation string system under impact according to the reliability theoretical model of the perforation string system, and the process of analyzing to obtain the numerical simulation calculation result comprises the following steps:
according to the reliability theoretical model of the perforating string system, combining the real operation working condition of the perforating string system, and reproducing the dynamic process of the perforating string under impact by adopting a numerical simulation method;
according to a numerical simulation method, a numerical modeling and calculation method of the perforating string system is formed by establishing a three-dimensional finite element perforating string system simulation calculation model and carrying out grid division;
and according to the numerical modeling and calculation method of the perforating string system, developing numerical simulation calculation of the perforating string system.
7. The method of claim 1, wherein the step 2 of extracting dynamic ballistic data of the perforating string system comprises:
drawing a curve of the change of the equivalent stress of the top of the perforating string system subjected to impact along with time aiming at the numerical simulation calculation result of the perforating string system;
determining that the moment when the perforation tubular column system enters a damage defect stage from a normal stage is the moment when the equivalent stress peak value exceeds the yield strength of the oil pipe for the first time according to the curve;
and determining the impact times of the perforating string system in the normal stage and the damage defect stage respectively.
8. The method of claim 7, wherein step 3 comprises:
determining a failure threshold value and a defect threshold value of the equivalent stress of the top of the perforating string system subjected to impact and a duration time threshold value of a damage defect stage, and adopting the reliability theoretical model to calculate the probability that the perforating string system fails in a normal stage and the damage defect stage respectively under each failure condition, so as to form a reliability evaluation result of the perforating string system.
9. A system for reliability analysis of a perforating string system, the system comprising: the system comprises a reliability theoretical model establishing module, a dynamic impacted numerical simulation module and a reliability evaluation module;
the reliability theoretical model establishing module is used for establishing a reliability theoretical model of a perforation tubular column system normal stage and a damage defect stage based on a competition failure mode;
the competing failure modes are at least two failure conditions competing for failure of the perforating string system, the failure conditions comprising: the injury increment reaches a threshold value and the duration of the injury state reaches the threshold value;
the dynamic impacted numerical simulation module is used for simulating an impacted dynamic process of the perforating string system by adopting a numerical simulation method, analyzing to obtain a numerical simulation calculation result, and extracting dynamic impacted data of the perforating string system according to the numerical simulation calculation result;
and the reliability evaluation module is used for evaluating the reliability of the perforation string system according to the dynamic impact data and the reliability theoretical model.
10. An electronic device comprising a memory, a processor for implementing the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1-8 when executing a computer management class program stored in the memory.
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