CN113191647A - Urban toughness assessment method for emergency management - Google Patents

Urban toughness assessment method for emergency management Download PDF

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CN113191647A
CN113191647A CN202110494391.7A CN202110494391A CN113191647A CN 113191647 A CN113191647 A CN 113191647A CN 202110494391 A CN202110494391 A CN 202110494391A CN 113191647 A CN113191647 A CN 113191647A
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武田艳
王旭
张若晨
陈震
夏清涛
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Abstract

The invention discloses an urban toughness assessment method facing emergency management, which comprises the following steps of 1: analyzing the toughness characteristics of the city from three different aspects of the pressure of the city to the emergency which possibly occurs, the state of the city when the emergency occurs and the emergency response made by the city after the emergency occurs; step 2: selecting a plurality of toughness evaluation indexes based on the toughness characteristics, and establishing an urban toughness evaluation index system facing emergency management according to the hierarchical structure of the multi-objective decision method; and step 3: performing standardization processing on the obtained index data by using a Z-score method, and completing quantitative calculation of index weight by using an entropy method to obtain the weight value of each toughness evaluation index; and 4, step 4: determining an urban toughness evaluation standard facing emergency management according to the toughness evaluation index calculation result and the local urban overall toughness level; and establishing an urban toughness evaluation model.

Description

Urban toughness assessment method for emergency management
Technical Field
The invention relates to an urban toughness assessment method for emergency management.
Background
The connotation and toughness theory of a tough city is originally derived from the field of natural ecology, is developed from an adaptive cycle concept proposed by Holling, an ecological scientist in the United states, and means the capability of a system to absorb pressure when responding to external impact and quickly restore to a balanced state so as to keep the system stable. Wherein, the ecological toughness is considered as the capability of forming a new cycle steady state of the system, and the social ecological toughness is considered as the capability of forming a dynamic persistent state of the system with more complex multi-factor adaptability.
In recent years, the two meridians of emergency management research and tough urban research gradually show a cross-fusion trend, more and more researches combine emergency management and toughness, the urban management aspect is particularly prominent, and the improvement of urban emergency management capability is brought into urban space toughness construction, which is a necessary requirement of era development.
The city toughness assessment facing emergency management is used as the first step of city emergency management capacity improvement, the importance of the city emergency management method is clear, the city toughness assessment facing emergency management is reasonably and quantitatively carried out, the city toughness grades of all regions of a city are objectively judged, planning guidance suggestions are provided for different city toughness grades, the pertinence improvement of city emergency capacity can be guided, and the city resource distribution layout enables risks of the city facing emergency events to be controlled within a bearable range in the future.
At present, no clear or fixed method exists for city toughness assessment for emergency management, and the content is explained too subjectively or lacked in the existing research of city emergency management. Based on the method, under the concept that the tough city construction is advocated comprehensively in China, an urban toughness assessment method facing emergency management needs to be innovated and provided, and a quantitative basis is provided for the improvement of urban management capacity.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide an urban toughness assessment method for emergency management.
In order to solve the above problems, the present invention provides an emergency management-oriented urban toughness assessment method, which includes: analyzing the toughness characteristics of the city from three different aspects, namely the pressure of the city on the emergency which possibly occurs, the state of the city when the emergency occurs and the emergency response made by the city after the emergency occurs;
based on the toughness characteristics, selecting a plurality of toughness evaluation indexes, and establishing an urban toughness evaluation index system facing emergency management according to a hierarchical structure of a multi-objective decision method, wherein the urban toughness evaluation index system comprises each toughness evaluation index;
performing standardization treatment on the acquired toughness evaluation indexes by using a Z-score method, and completing quantitative calculation of index weights by using an entropy method to obtain weight values of all the toughness evaluation indexes;
according to the toughness evaluation index calculation result and the overall toughness level of the local city, determining an urban toughness evaluation standard for emergency management, and establishing an urban toughness evaluation model based on the urban toughness evaluation standard.
Further, in the above method, the pressure of the city on the emergency which may occur includes: external and internal potential risks;
the states of the city itself when an emergency occurs comprise: urban resident characteristics and urban environmental characteristics;
the emergency response made by the city after the emergency event occurs comprises the following steps: emergency organization capability and adaptive recovery capability.
Further, in the method, three subclass indexes are set under the external potential risk, wherein the three subclass indexes are respectively the number of emergency events, the number of disaster accidents and the number of traffic accidents;
and setting three subclass indexes under the internal potential risk, namely urban traffic construction conditions, residential unemployment rate and convenience facility construction conditions.
Further, in the method, three subclasses of indexes are set under the urban resident characteristics, which are respectively urban education expenditure condition, urban old people and children population ratio and urban frequent population number;
under the urban environmental characteristics, three subclasses of indexes are set, namely the living facility construction condition, the medical resource construction condition and the urban greening rate.
Further, in the method, three subclasses of indexes are set under the emergency organization capacity, namely the disaster prevention exercise times, the urban emergency material budget and the emergency scheme construction condition; three subclass indexes are set under the adaptive recovery capability, namely the information system construction condition, the urban GDP and the urban medical insurance coverage condition.
Further, in the above method, the formula for performing the normalization process on the obtained toughness evaluation index using the Z-score method is as follows:
Figure BDA0003052658760000031
wherein i is an index sequence, j is a year time sequence, and xijIs the actual value of each index, ZijIs a value after each index data is standardized,
Figure BDA0003052658760000032
is the mean value of the sample data,
Figure BDA0003052658760000033
m represents the total number of years of data time, which is the standard deviation of the sample data.
Further, in the above method, the entropy method is an objective weighting method, and determines the weight of each index variability according to the size of each index variability, so as to avoid the influence caused by subjective factors, and the formula of the entropy method is as follows:
Figure BDA0003052658760000034
Figure BDA0003052658760000035
Figure BDA0003052658760000036
wherein i is an index sequence, j is a year time sequence, FijIs ZijThe translation is a nonnegatively processed value, k is a constant, k is more than 0, ln is a natural logarithm, eiIs the entropy of the i-th index, wiIs the entropy weight of the ith index.
Further, in the above method, the urban toughness evaluation model combines the principle of the PSR model, and an urban toughness evaluation model for emergency management is constructed from three aspects, namely a pressure layer a, a state layer B, and a reaction layer C, and the formula of the urban toughness evaluation model is as follows:
Figure BDA0003052658760000041
Figure BDA0003052658760000042
wherein, anThe number of indexes of the pressure layer; bnThe number of the indexes of the state layer; c. CnThe number of indexes of the response layer; r is an urban toughness index for emergency management; qiThe score for each index.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following advantages and positive effects compared with the prior art due to the adoption of the technical scheme:
the method has scientificity, systematicness and operability for selecting the urban toughness evaluation index for emergency management. Three indexes of pressure, state and response of city toughness facing emergency management are set, a pressure layer reflects the pressure of the city facing a possible emergency, a state layer reflects the state of the city when the emergency happens, and a response layer reflects the emergency response made by the city after the emergency happens. According to the urban statistical yearbook and government announcements counted in regions and multiple years, trends of urban toughness stress indexes, state indexes and response indexes facing emergency management can be obtained.
The method utilizes an entropy method to calculate the weight, further ensures the scientificity and the accuracy of the urban toughness evaluation, constructs an evaluation model based on a PSR model theory, determines the urban toughness rating, realizes the effective evaluation of the emergency management capability of the urban face in the case of emergency, and provides an improved direction and basis for the future development of the urban.
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FIG. 1 shows a flow diagram of a method according to an embodiment of the invention;
fig. 2 shows an emergency management oriented city toughness assessment index system.
Detailed Description
In order to make the aforementioned objects, features and advantages of the present invention comprehensible, embodiments accompanied with figures are described in further detail below.
As shown in fig. 1, the present invention provides an emergency management-oriented city toughness assessment method, which includes:
s1: analyzing the toughness characteristics of the city from three different aspects, namely the pressure of the city on the emergency which possibly occurs, the state of the city when the emergency occurs and the emergency response made by the city after the emergency occurs;
s2: based on the toughness characteristics, selecting a plurality of toughness evaluation indexes, and establishing an urban toughness evaluation index system facing emergency management according to a hierarchical structure of a multi-objective decision method, wherein the urban toughness evaluation index system comprises each toughness evaluation index;
s3: performing standardization treatment on the acquired toughness evaluation indexes by using a Z-score method, and completing quantitative calculation of index weights by using an entropy method to obtain weight values of all the toughness evaluation indexes;
s4: according to the toughness evaluation index calculation result and the overall toughness level of the local city, determining an urban toughness evaluation standard for emergency management, and establishing an urban toughness evaluation model based on the urban toughness evaluation standard.
In an embodiment of the method for evaluating city toughness for emergency management, the pressure of the city on the emergency which may occur includes: external and internal potential risks;
the states of the city itself when an emergency occurs comprise: urban resident characteristics and urban environmental characteristics;
the emergency response made by the city after the emergency event occurs comprises the following steps: emergency organization capability and adaptive recovery capability.
In the embodiment of the urban toughness evaluation method facing emergency management, three subclasses of indexes are set under the external potential risk, wherein the indexes are the number of emergency events, the number of disaster accidents and the number of traffic accidents;
and setting three subclass indexes under the internal potential risk, namely urban traffic construction conditions, residential unemployment rate and convenience facility construction conditions.
In the embodiment of the urban toughness evaluation method facing emergency management, three subclasses of indexes are set under the urban resident characteristics, namely urban education expenditure condition, urban old people and children population ratio and urban frequent population number;
under the urban environmental characteristics, three subclasses of indexes are set, namely the living facility construction condition, the medical resource construction condition and the urban greening rate.
In the embodiment of the urban toughness assessment method facing emergency management, three subclasses of indexes are set under emergency organization capacity, namely disaster prevention exercise times, urban emergency material budget and emergency scheme construction conditions; three subclass indexes are set under the adaptive recovery capability, namely the information system construction condition, the urban GDP and the urban medical insurance coverage condition.
In an embodiment of the urban toughness evaluation method facing emergency management, a formula for carrying out standardization processing on the acquired toughness evaluation indexes by using a Z-score method is as follows:
Figure BDA0003052658760000061
wherein i is an index sequence, j is a year time sequence, and xijIs the actual value of each index, ZijFor each index data markThe value of the normalized value is obtained by normalizing the value,
Figure BDA0003052658760000062
is the mean value of the sample data,
Figure BDA0003052658760000063
m represents the total number of years of data time, which is the standard deviation of the sample data.
In an embodiment of the emergency management-oriented urban toughness assessment method, the entropy value method is an objective weighting method, the weight of each index is determined according to the variability of each index, so that the influence caused by subjective factors is avoided, and the formula of the entropy value method is as follows:
Figure BDA0003052658760000064
Figure BDA0003052658760000065
Figure BDA0003052658760000066
wherein i is an index sequence, j is a year time sequence, FijIs ZijThe translation is a nonnegatively processed value, k is a constant, k is more than 0, ln is a natural logarithm, eiIs the entropy of the i-th index, wiIs the entropy weight of the ith index.
In an embodiment of the emergency management-oriented urban toughness evaluation method, the urban toughness evaluation model is combined with the principle of a PSR model, and is constructed from three aspects of a pressure layer A, a state layer B and a reaction layer C, wherein the formula of the urban toughness evaluation model is as follows:
Figure BDA0003052658760000071
Figure BDA0003052658760000072
wherein, anThe number of indexes of the pressure layer; bnThe number of the indexes of the state layer; c. CnThe number of indexes of the response layer; r is an urban toughness index for emergency management; qiThe score for each index.
Specifically, as shown in fig. 1, the urban toughness evaluation method for emergency management constructs a corresponding urban toughness evaluation system for emergency management from a target layer, a criterion layer and an index layer, and evaluates the urban toughness, including the following steps:
the method comprises the following steps: analyzing the toughness characteristics of the city from three different aspects of the pressure of the city to the emergency which possibly occurs, the state of the city when the emergency occurs and the emergency response made by the city after the emergency occurs;
step two: selecting a plurality of toughness evaluation indexes based on the toughness characteristics, and establishing an urban toughness evaluation index system facing emergency management according to the hierarchical structure of the multi-objective decision method;
as shown in fig. 2, six types of indexes of external potential risk, internal potential risk, urban resident characteristics, urban environmental characteristics, emergency organization capability and adaptive recovery capability of the urban toughness evaluation system are established.
Setting three subclass indexes under the external potential risk, wherein the indexes are the number of emergency events, the number of disaster accidents and the number of traffic accidents;
setting three subclass indexes under the internal potential risk, namely urban traffic construction conditions, resident unemployment rates and convenient facility construction conditions;
setting three subclass indexes under the urban resident characteristics, wherein the three subclass indexes are respectively urban education expenditure conditions, urban old people and children population ratios and urban frequent population numbers;
setting three subclass indexes under the urban environmental characteristics, namely the living facility construction condition, the medical resource construction condition and the urban greening rate;
setting three subclass indexes under the emergency organization capacity, wherein the indexes are the times of disaster prevention exercises, the budget of urban emergency materials and the construction condition of an emergency scheme;
three subclass indexes are set under the adaptive recovery capability, namely the information system construction condition, the urban GDP and the urban medical insurance coverage condition. In conclusion, 18 subclasses of indexes (three-grade indexes) are set up.
Step three: performing standardization processing on the obtained index data by using a Z-score method, and completing quantitative calculation of index weight by using an entropy method to obtain the weight value of each toughness evaluation index;
because the units of the selected 18 index data are not uniform, in order to eliminate dimension influence, a Z-score method is selected to carry out standardization processing on the data, and the specific method is as follows:
Figure BDA0003052658760000081
wherein i is an index sequence, j is a year time sequence, xijIs the actual value of each index, ZijIs a value after each index data is standardized,
Figure BDA0003052658760000082
is the mean value of the sample data,
Figure BDA0003052658760000083
m represents the total number of years of data time, which is the standard deviation of the sample data.
The weight of each index is objectively determined according to the variability of each index, the influence caused by subjective factors is avoided, the weight of each index is determined by using an entropy method, and the specific method comprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0003052658760000084
Figure BDA0003052658760000085
Figure BDA0003052658760000086
wherein FijIs ZijThe translation is a nonnegatively processed value, k is a constant, k is more than 0, ln is a natural logarithm, eiIs the entropy of the i-th index, wiIs the entropy weight of the ith index. The calculated weights are shown in table 1.
Figure BDA0003052658760000087
Figure BDA0003052658760000091
TABLE 1
Step four: and determining an urban toughness evaluation standard facing emergency management according to the toughness evaluation index calculation result and the overall toughness level of the local city, and establishing an urban toughness evaluation model.
The urban toughness evaluation model combines the principle of a PSR model, and is constructed from the three aspects of a pressure layer A, a state layer B and a reaction layer C and oriented to emergency management, and the specific formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0003052658760000092
Figure BDA0003052658760000093
wherein a isnThe number of indexes of the pressure layer; bnThe number of the indexes of the state layer; c. CnThe number of indexes of the response layer; r is an urban toughness index for emergency management; qi is the score of each index, the highest score of each index is set as 5 points, the lowest score is set as 1 point, the overall interval of the urban toughness index facing emergency management is obtained through calculation, and then the weight of the index is combined to obtain the indexThe score of the toughness index was divided into 5 grades. Under the definition of city toughness, the higher the toughness index score and the toughness grade are, the stronger the emergency management capability of the city in the face of emergency is represented.
In conclusion, the method constructs a corresponding urban toughness evaluation system from the three aspects of a target layer, a criterion layer and an index layer, quantitatively analyzes the capacity grade of emergency management of the city facing to the emergency, and provides a foundation for improving the urban management capacity under the background of the tough city.
The embodiments in the present description are described in a progressive manner, each embodiment focuses on differences from other embodiments, and the same and similar parts among the embodiments are referred to each other.
Those of skill would further appreciate that the various illustrative elements and algorithm steps described in connection with the embodiments disclosed herein may be implemented as electronic hardware, computer software, or combinations of both, and that the various illustrative components and steps have been described above generally in terms of their functionality in order to clearly illustrate this interchangeability of hardware and software. Whether such functionality is implemented as hardware or software depends upon the particular application and design constraints imposed on the implementation. Skilled artisans may implement the described functionality in varying ways for each particular application, but such implementation decisions should not be interpreted as causing a departure from the scope of the present invention. It will be apparent to those skilled in the art that various changes and modifications may be made in the invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention. Thus, if such modifications and variations of the present invention fall within the scope of the claims of the present invention and their equivalents, the present invention is also intended to include such modifications and variations.

Claims (8)

1. An urban toughness assessment method oriented to emergency management is characterized by comprising the following steps:
analyzing the toughness characteristics of the city from three different aspects, namely the pressure of the city on the emergency which possibly occurs, the state of the city when the emergency occurs and the emergency response made by the city after the emergency occurs;
based on the toughness characteristics, selecting a plurality of toughness evaluation indexes, and establishing an urban toughness evaluation index system facing emergency management according to a hierarchical structure of a multi-objective decision method, wherein the urban toughness evaluation index system comprises each toughness evaluation index;
performing standardization treatment on the acquired toughness evaluation indexes by using a Z-score method, and completing quantitative calculation of index weights by using an entropy method to obtain weight values of all the toughness evaluation indexes;
according to the toughness evaluation index calculation result and the overall toughness level of the local city, determining an urban toughness evaluation standard for emergency management, and establishing an urban toughness evaluation model based on the urban toughness evaluation standard.
2. The method for assessing urban toughness oriented to emergency management according to claim 1, wherein the stress of the urban area on the possible emergencies comprises: external and internal potential risks;
the states of the city itself when an emergency occurs comprise: urban resident characteristics and urban environmental characteristics;
the emergency response made by the city after the emergency event occurs comprises the following steps: emergency organization capability and adaptive recovery capability.
3. The urban toughness assessment method oriented to emergency management according to claim 1, wherein three subclasses of indexes are set under the external potential risk, which are respectively the number of emergency events, the number of disaster accidents and the number of traffic accidents;
and setting three subclass indexes under the internal potential risk, namely urban traffic construction conditions, residential unemployment rate and convenience facility construction conditions.
4. The urban toughness assessment method oriented to emergency management according to claim 3, wherein three categories of indexes are set under the urban resident characteristics, which are urban education expenditure condition, urban elderly and children population ratio and urban frequent population number respectively;
under the urban environmental characteristics, three subclasses of indexes are set, namely the living facility construction condition, the medical resource construction condition and the urban greening rate.
5. The urban toughness assessment method oriented to emergency management according to claim 3, wherein three subclasses of indexes are set under emergency organization capability, which are disaster prevention exercise times, urban emergency material budget and emergency scheme construction conditions respectively; three subclass indexes are set under the adaptive recovery capability, namely the information system construction condition, the urban GDP and the urban medical insurance coverage condition.
6. The urban toughness assessment method oriented to emergency management according to claim 1, wherein the formula for performing standardization processing on the obtained toughness assessment indexes by using a Z-score method is as follows:
Figure FDA0003052658750000021
wherein i is an index sequence, j is a year time sequence, and xijIs the actual value of each index, ZijIs a value after each index data is standardized,
Figure FDA0003052658750000022
is the mean value of the sample data,
Figure FDA0003052658750000023
m represents the total number of years of data time, which is the standard deviation of the sample data.
7. The urban toughness assessment method oriented to emergency management according to claim 1, wherein the entropy method is an objective weighting method, the weighting of each index is determined according to the degree of variability of each index, and the influence caused by subjective factors is avoided, and the formula of the entropy method is as follows:
Figure FDA0003052658750000024
Figure FDA0003052658750000025
Figure FDA0003052658750000026
wherein i is an index sequence, j is a year time sequence, FijIs ZijThe translation is a nonnegatively processed value, k is a constant, k is more than 0, ln is a natural logarithm, eiIs the entropy of the i-th index, wiIs the entropy weight of the ith index.
8. The urban toughness assessment method facing emergency management according to claim 1, wherein the urban toughness assessment model combines the principle of the PSR model, and is constructed from three aspects of a pressure layer a, a state layer B and a reaction layer C, and the formula of the urban toughness assessment model is as follows:
Figure FDA0003052658750000031
Figure FDA0003052658750000032
wherein, anThe number of indexes of the pressure layer; bnThe number of the indexes of the state layer; c. CnThe number of indexes of the response layer; r is an urban toughness index for emergency management; qiThe score for each index.
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Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN113627705A (en) * 2020-05-08 2021-11-09 北京化工大学 Safety city evaluation system and method
CN113869807A (en) * 2021-12-03 2021-12-31 北京市应急管理科学技术研究院 Urban flood toughness capability assessment system and method
CN114881511A (en) * 2022-05-25 2022-08-09 江苏科技大学 Flood disaster-oriented community disaster-prevention toughness evaluation method
CN116934073A (en) * 2023-06-07 2023-10-24 深圳大学 Urban disaster toughness refined measuring and calculating method based on space-time activity analysis
CN116934073B (en) * 2023-06-07 2024-06-04 深圳大学 Urban disaster toughness refined measuring and calculating method based on space-time activity analysis

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