CN113065713B - Segmented chain type urban river and lake ecological water replenishing prediction method - Google Patents
Segmented chain type urban river and lake ecological water replenishing prediction method Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for predicting ecological water supplement of a segmented chain type urban river and lake, which comprises the steps of obtaining a water system map layer of urban river vectorization to be researched, and constructing to obtain an urban river topological graph; determining the river reach shape parameters of each grade of river reach in the urban river topological graph according to the water system graph layer; setting the flow rate of the water passing section of each stage of river reach; calculating the daily expected water demand, consumption and water supplement amount of each stage of river reach according to the flow rate of the water passing section and the shape parameters of the river reach; calculating annual water supplement quantity of each grade river reach for one year, and obtaining the annual total water supplement quantity of the urban river to be researched by adopting the annual water supplement quantities of all the river reaches; calculating the average value of the total annual water supply of preset continuous years of the urban river to be researched, and taking the average value as the initial value of the annual water supply of the urban river to be researched; and acquiring the planned water consumption increment of the next year of the city to be researched and the rainfall variation of the next year predicted by the city weather station, and calculating the predicted water supplement amount of the next year.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a water resource planning technology, in particular to a method for predicting ecological water supplement of a segmented chain type city river and lake.
Background
The northern area of China generally faces the problem of water resource shortage, and the economic society develops a large amount of water for rivers and lakes, so that river reach dryness, lakes are atrophied, and water ecology damage is serious. With the promotion of ecological civilization construction and the increasing demand of people for good ecological environment, the restoration of the water quantity of rivers and lakes in cities is one of important works of governments.
The water quantity for maintaining the ecology of rivers and lakes is usually from external water transfer or water quantity compressed from economic and social requirements, the cost is high, and if the water replenishing quantity needed by the urban rivers and lakes is not accurately predicted, economic loss is brought, and precious resources are wasted. At present, no generally accepted method for specially calculating water supplement of urban rivers and lakes exists, related researches mostly focus on the research of ecological water demand of rivers and lakes, the ecological water supplement and the ecological water demand are inconsistent, the method for calculating the ecological water demand is mostly used for replenishing natural rivers for rainfall runoff, and the rivers often have long-series hydrological monitoring data.
For urban rivers and lakes, in order to meet the landscape requirement of perennial water, besides rainfall supply, more water needs to be artificially supplemented to ensure that the river reach is not cut off. In addition, the topological relation of the urban river reach is more complex, all water systems are mutually communicated, and the upstream river reach and the downstream river reach have repeated water volumes. And with the uncertainty of urban development and climate, particularly rainfall, the uncertainty of ecological water supplement amount of urban rivers and lakes in the future can increase.
Therefore, an evaluation method capable of researching the ecological water supplement amount of the urban rivers and lakes is needed.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects in the prior art, the method for predicting the ecological water supplement of the segmented chain type city river and lake can calculate the ecological water supplement amount of the city river and lake in the future according to the historical actual measurement and future prediction data.
In order to achieve the purpose of the invention, the invention adopts the technical scheme that:
the method for predicting the ecological water replenishing of the segmented chain type urban rivers and lakes is provided, and comprises the following steps:
s1, acquiring a water system map layer for urban river vectorization to be researched, and grading the urban river to be researched by adopting a Graveliees river grading method according to the river flow direction to construct an urban river topological graph;
s2, determining the river reach shape parameters of each grade of river reach in the urban river topological graph by adopting Arcgis software according to the water system map layer; setting the flow rate of the water passing section of each stage of river reach according to the urban landscape requirements;
s3, calculating the daily expected water demand, consumption and water supplement amount of each stage of river reach according to the flow rate of the water passing section and the shape parameters of the river reach;
s4, calculating annual water supplement quantity of each stage river reach for one year according to daily expected water demand, consumption and water supplement quantity of each stage river reach, and obtaining the annual total water supplement quantity of the urban river to be researched by adopting the annual water supplement quantities of all the river reaches;
s5, calculating the average value of the total annual water supply of preset continuous years of the urban river to be researched, and taking the average value as the initial value of the annual water supply of the urban river to be researched;
s6, acquiring the planned water consumption increment of the city to be researched in the next year and the rainfall variation of the city weather station in the next year, and calculating the predicted water supplement amount of the city in the next year:
ΔWmin city≤ΔWCity≤ΔWmax city，ΔWmin precipitation≤ΔWPrecipitation≤ΔWmax water lowering
Wherein,
is the initial value of the water supplement amount; wWater supplementTo predict the water supplement amount; Δ WCityWater increment, Δ W, for planning of the city to be investigatedmax cityAnd Δ Wmin cityAre respectively Δ WCityMaximum and minimum values of; Δ WPrecipitationDelta W is the amount of change in rainfall in the next yearmin precipitationAnd Δ Wmax water loweringAre respectively Δ WPrecipitationMinimum and maximum values of.
The invention has the beneficial effects that: according to the scheme, urban rivers to be researched are segmented according to the topological relation of the urban rivers and lakes, then according to the upstream and downstream relation of the rivers and in combination with the condition of natural rainfall, the ecological water supplement amount of the rivers and lakes in preset continuous years is calculated by utilizing measured data, the uncertainty of future urban development and rainfall is considered, and the initial water supplement amount value is corrected in combination with the planned water consumption increment and the rainfall variation in the next year, so that the final predicted water supplement amount is obtained.
In the process of obtaining the predicted water supplement amount, the consumption of rivers and lakes is considered, so that the predicted ecological water supplement amount result is more accurate; considering that the water replenishing source has higher cost, the water is accurately replenished to all levels of rivers and lakes to achieve the effects of avoiding waste and reducing the cost; in addition, the problems of future urban development and rainfall uncertainty are also considered, and a more accurate reference range is carried out on the ecological water supplement quantity in the second year; the method has important significance for ecological civilization construction of urban rivers and lakes by setting scientific and sufficient supply planning for the ecological water supply amount of the urban complex rivers and lakes.
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FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a prediction method for ecological water supplement of a segmented chain type urban river lake.
Detailed Description
The following description of the embodiments of the present invention is provided to facilitate the understanding of the present invention by those skilled in the art, but it should be understood that the present invention is not limited to the scope of the embodiments, and it will be apparent to those skilled in the art that various changes may be made without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention as defined and defined in the appended claims, and all matters produced by the invention using the inventive concept are protected.
Referring to fig. 1, fig. 1 shows a flowchart of a method for predicting ecological water supplement of a segmented chain type urban river and lake, wherein the method S comprises steps S1 to S6 as shown in fig. 1.
In step S1, a water system map layer for urban river vectorization to be studied is obtained, specifically, a vector water system can be extracted from a sky map, a Baidu map or a Gade map, taking the sky map as an example, an electronic map of an urban river to be studied is downloaded to a computer through a downloader, a river reach band is extracted by using an image analysis tool of Arcgis software, and then reclassification is performed to obtain the water system map layer for urban river vectorization to be studied.
Then, according to the river flow direction, grading the urban river to be researched by adopting a Graveliee river grading method, and constructing to obtain an urban river topological graph; the specific method for the urban river topological graph construction process comprises the following steps:
analyzing the flow direction of the river according to the topography of a research area, selecting a river with the longest length as a primary main river reach, selecting a river merging into the primary main river reach as a secondary river reach, performing sectional coding from upstream to downstream, performing river segmentation when a secondary river reach merging point exists, performing encoding when the upstream of a merging point of the secondary river reach is a section of river, and performing encoding when the upstream of the merging point of the secondary river reach and the downstream of the merging point are sections of rivers. And after coding, the topological relation of inflow and outflow of water quantity of each river reach is determined.
In step S2, according to the water system map layer, determining a river reach shape parameter of each river reach level in the urban river topological graph by using Arcgis software; if the river cross section is trapezoidal, the slope coefficient needs to be measured for determining the water cross section area of the river, and finally, an expected water surface depth is set according to landscape requirements.
Setting the flow rate of the water passing section of each stage of river reach according to the urban landscape requirements; the flow velocity can be determined according to the water quality of the river channel, so that the water bloom on the surface of the river is ensured, the sediment at the bottom is prevented from silting, and the influence on the safety of citizens caused by the fact that the river channel is washed by overlarge flow velocity is avoided.
In step S3, calculating the daily expected water demand, consumption and water supplement amount of each stage of river reach according to the flow rate of the water passing section and the river reach shape parameters;
in one embodiment of the present invention, the daily expected water demand of each river reach is calculated by the following formula:
Wij water requirement＝Aij×Vij×3600×24
Wherein, Wij water requirementPredicted water demand, m, for day j of the ith river section3；ΔAijThe expected water demand for the jth day of the ith river reachCross-sectional area of water, m, corresponding to the difference between normal water amounts2；hijThe normal water level m of the ith river reach day j; vijThe flow velocity of the cross section of the water, m/s, set for the ith river reach the expected water demand on the jth day of the ith river reach; bijAnd hijThe water surface width and depth m of the ith river reach day j; bij is requiredAnd hij is requiredThe water surface width and depth m corresponding to the expected water demand of the jth day of the ith river reach; m isijThe slope coefficient of the ith river reach day j is shown.
Wherein, the formula for calculating the daily consumption of each stage of river reach is as follows:
Wij consumption＝Wij evaporation+Wij leakage+Wij self-cleaning，Wij evaporation＝ETSurface of water×Lij×bij，
Wij leakage＝qij leakage×Lij，Wij self-cleaning＝Min(MQic)
Wherein, Wij consumption、Wij evaporation、Wij leakageAnd Wij self-cleaningConsumption, evaporation loss, leakage and self-purification water demand, m, of the ith river section on the jth day3；ETSurface of waterThe daily evaporation intensity of the water surface of the urban river to be researched is m/d; l isijAnd bijThe length and the width m of the water surface of the ith river reach on the jth day are respectively; q. q.sij leakageThe single width leakage at the jth day of the ith river reach, m3/m，MQicThe average monthly flow of the ith river reach in month c; c is the month number.
When in implementation, the preferable calculation formula of the daily water supplement amount of each stage of river reach in the scheme is as follows:
Wij moisturizing＝Wij water requirement+Wij consumption-Wij water supply，Wij water supply＝Vij inlet×Aij inlet
Wherein, Wij moisturizingAnd Wij water supplyThe water supplement amount and the upstream water inflow amount m of the ith river section on the jth day are respectively3；Vij inletIs the cross-sectional flow velocity, m, of the upstream inlet on the jth day of the ith river section3/s；Aij inletIs the cross-sectional area of the upstream inlet on the jth day of the ith river section, m2。
In step S4, calculating an annual water supply amount of each stage of the river reach for one year according to the daily expected water demand, consumption and water supply amount of each stage of the river reach, and obtaining the annual total water supply amount of the urban river to be researched by using the annual water supply amounts of all the river reaches;
in step S5, calculating an average value of total annual water supplementation of preset consecutive years of the urban river to be studied, and taking the average value as an initial value of annual water supplementation of one year of the urban river to be studied; in order to ensure the accuracy of the initial value of the obtained water supplement amount, the preset continuous year is preferably greater than or equal to 5.
In step S6, the planned water consumption increment of the city to be studied in the next year and the rainfall variation of the city in the next year predicted by the city weather station are obtained, and the predicted water replenishment amount in the next year is calculated:
ΔWmin city≤ΔWCity≤ΔWmax city，ΔWmin precipitation≤ΔWPrecipitation≤ΔWmax water lowering
Wherein,
is the initial value of the water supplement amount; wWater supplementTo predict the water supplement amount; Δ WCityWater increment, Δ W, for planning of the city to be investigatedmax cityAnd Δ Wmin cityAre respectively Δ WCityMaximum and minimum values of; Δ WPrecipitationDelta W is the amount of change in rainfall in the next yearmin precipitationAnd Δ Wmax water loweringAre respectively Δ WPrecipitationMinimum and maximum values of.
In one embodiment of the invention, the method for acquiring the planned water use increment of the city to be researched in the next year comprises the following steps:
step S61, calculating the domestic water increase amount:
ΔWmax life＝Wmax is rawActivity device-WLife savingΔWmin life＝Wmin life-WLife saving
Wherein, Δ Wmax lifeUpper limit of growth of domestic water, m3；ΔWmin lifeLower limit of growth of domestic water, m3；Wmin lifeFor the minimum value of water consumption in the future year, m3；Wmax lifeM is the maximum value of water consumption for the life of the future year3；WLife savingM is the average of water consumption in the past 5 years3。
Step S62, calculating an increase amount of industrial water:
ΔWmax industry＝Wmax industry-WIndustrial processΔWmin industry＝Wmin industry-WIndustrial process
Wherein, Δ Wmax industryAnd Δ Wmin industryRespectively an upper limit and a lower limit of the growth amount of the industrial water, m3；Wmin industryFor the minimum value of industrial water consumption in the future year, m3；Wmax industryFor the maximum value of industrial water consumption in the future year, m3；WIndustrial processM is the average value of industrial water consumption in the last 5 years3；
Step S63, calculating the agricultural water increase:
ΔWmax agriculture＝Wmax agriculture-WAgricultural productionΔWmin agriculture＝Wmin agriculture-WAgricultural production
Wherein, Δ Wmax agricultureThe upper limit of the growth amount of agricultural water is m3；ΔWmin agricultureThe lower limit of the growth of agricultural water, m3；Wmin agricultureThe minimum value of agricultural water consumption m in the future year3；Wmax agricultureM is the maximum value of agricultural water consumption in the future3；WAgricultural productionM is the average value of agricultural water consumption in the last 5 years3。
Step S64, calculating the growth of the ecological water on the urban ground:
ΔWmax ecology＝Wmax ecology-WEcological environmentΔWmin ecology＝Wmin ecology-WEcological environment
Wherein, Δ Wmax agricultureThe upper limit of the growth amount of the ecological water on the ground is m3；ΔWmin agricultureThe lower limit of the growth amount of ecological water on the ground, m3；Wmin groundThe minimum value of the ground ecological water consumption m in the future3；Wmax groundThe maximum value of the ecological water consumption on the ground in the future year is m3；WGround surfaceThe average value of the ground ecological water consumption m in the last 5 years3。
Step S65, calculating the planned water consumption increment of the city to be researched in the next year:
ΔWmax city＝ΔWmax life+ΔWmax industry+ΔWmax agriculture+ΔWmax ecology
ΔWmin city＝ΔWmin life+ΔWmin industry+ΔWmin agriculture+ΔWmin ecology
ΔWmin city≤ΔWCity≤ΔWmax city。
When the method is implemented, the calculation formula of the rainfall variation of the next year predicted by the optimized urban weather station is as follows:
ΔWmax water lowering＝Wmax water lowering-WPrecipitationΔWmin precipitation＝Wmin precipitation-WPrecipitationΔWmin precipitation≤ΔWPrecipitation≤ΔWmax water lowering
Wherein, Δ Wmax water loweringUpper limit of the amount of precipitation, m3；ΔWmin precipitationM is the lower limit of the variation of precipitation3；Wmin precipitationFor the minimum precipitation of the future year, m3；Wmax water loweringM is the maximum precipitation of the future year3；WPrecipitationM is the mean value of the water reduction in the last 5 years3。
Specifically, the maximum value and the minimum value of the predicted water supplement amount in the next year are respectively:
wherein, Wmax water supplementAnd WReplenishing water for minAre respectively WWater supplementMaximum and minimum values of.
In an embodiment of the present invention, between the step S4 and the step S5, further comprising:
acquiring daily observed values of rainfall stations near each stage of river reach in the urban river to be researched, and calculating daily surface rainfall of each stage of river reach:
Wij rainfall＝Pij×Lij×bij
Wherein, Wij rainfallIs the surface rainfall of the jth day of the ith river section, m3；PijThe observed value m of a rainfall station near the jth day of the ith river reach; l isijAnd SijThe length and width of the water surface on the jth day of the ith river reach, m;
calculating the annual surface rainfall capacity of each river reach according to the daily surface rainfall capacity of each river reach, and then obtaining the total surface rainfall capacity of the urban river to be researched based on the annual surface rainfall capacity of all the river reach;
and calculating the difference between the total annual water supply amount and the total plane rainfall amount, and updating the total annual water supply amount of the urban river to be researched by adopting the difference.
The final water supplementing quantity can be calculated more accurately by introducing the surface rainfall of each stage of river reach, so that the aim of saving the water diversion cost is fulfilled.
In conclusion, the prediction method provided by the scheme can sequentially calculate the ecological water replenishing quantity of rivers and lakes section by section according to the upstream and downstream relations of rivers, and calculate the ecological water replenishing quantity of rivers and lakes in future according to historical actual measurement and future prediction data.
Claims (6)
1. The method for predicting the ecological water replenishing of the segmented chain type urban rivers and lakes is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
s1, acquiring a water system map layer for urban river vectorization to be researched, and grading the urban river to be researched by adopting a Graveliees river grading method according to the river flow direction to construct an urban river topological graph;
s2, determining the river reach shape parameters of each grade of river reach in the urban river topological graph by adopting Arcgis software according to the water system map layer; setting the flow rate of the water passing section of each stage of river reach according to the urban landscape requirements;
s3, calculating the daily expected water demand, consumption and water supplement amount of each stage of river reach according to the flow rate of the water passing section and the shape parameters of the river reach;
s4, calculating annual water supplement quantity of each stage river reach for one year according to daily expected water demand, consumption and water supplement quantity of each stage river reach, and obtaining the annual total water supplement quantity of the urban river to be researched by adopting the annual water supplement quantities of all the river reaches;
s5, calculating the average value of the total annual water supply of preset continuous years of the urban river to be researched, and taking the average value as the initial value of the annual water supply of the urban river to be researched;
s6, acquiring the planned water consumption increment of the city to be researched in the next year and the rainfall variation of the city weather station in the next year, and calculating the predicted water supplement amount of the city in the next year:
ΔWmin city≤ΔWCity≤ΔWmax city，ΔWmin precipitation≤ΔWPrecipitation≤ΔWmax water lowering
Wherein,
is the initial value of the water supplement amount; wWater supplementTo predict the water supplement amount; Δ WCityWater increment, Δ W, for planning of the city to be investigatedmax cityAnd Δ Wmin cityAre respectively Δ WCityMaximum and minimum values of; Δ WPrecipitationDelta W is the amount of change in rainfall in the next yearmin precipitationAnd Δ Wmax water loweringAre respectively Δ WPrecipitationMinimum and maximum values of.
2. The method for predicting ecological water supplement of the segmented chain type city rivers and lakes according to claim 1, wherein the steps between the step S4 and the step S5 further comprise:
acquiring daily observed values of rainfall stations near each stage of river reach in the urban river to be researched, and calculating daily surface rainfall of each stage of river reach:
Wij rainfall＝Pij×Lij×bij
Wherein, Wij rainfallIs the surface rainfall of the jth day of the ith river section, m3；PijThe observed value m of a rainfall station near the jth day of the ith river reach; l isijAnd bijThe length and width of the water surface on the jth day of the ith river reach, m;
calculating the annual surface rainfall capacity of each river reach according to the daily surface rainfall capacity of each river reach, and then obtaining the total surface rainfall capacity of the urban river to be researched based on the annual surface rainfall capacity of all the river reach;
and calculating the difference between the total annual water supply amount and the total plane rainfall amount, and updating the total annual water supply amount of the urban river to be researched by adopting the difference.
3. The method for predicting ecological water replenishing of the segmented chain type urban rivers and lakes according to claim 1, wherein a calculation formula of daily expected water demand of each stage of river reach is as follows:
Wij water requirement＝ΔAij×Vij×3600×24
Wherein, Wij water requirementPredicted water demand, m, for day j of the ith river section3；ΔAijThe cross-sectional area m corresponding to the difference value between the expected water demand and the normal water demand of the ith river reach day j2；hijThe normal water level m of the ith river reach day j; vijThe flow velocity of the cross section of the water, m/s, set for the ith river reach the expected water demand on the jth day of the ith river reach; bijAnd hijThe water surface width and depth m of the ith river reach on the jth day respectively; bij is requiredAnd hij is requiredThe water surface width and depth m corresponding to the expected water demand of the jth day of the ith river reach; m isijThe slope coefficient of the ith river reach day j is shown.
4. The method for predicting ecological water replenishing of the segmented chain type urban rivers and lakes according to claim 1, wherein the daily consumption of each stage of river reach is calculated according to the formula:
Wij consumption＝Wij evaporation+Wij leakage+Wij self-cleaning，Wij evaporation＝ETSurface of water×Lij×bij，
Wij leakage＝qij leakage×Lij，Wij self-cleaning＝Min(MQic)
Wherein, Wij consumption、Wij evaporation、Wij leakageAnd Wij self-cleaningConsumption, evaporation loss, leakage and self-purification water demand, m, of the ith river section on the jth day3；ETSurface of waterThe daily evaporation intensity of the water surface of the urban river to be researched is m/d; l isijAnd bijThe length and the width m of the water surface of the ith river reach on the jth day are respectively; q. q.sij leakageThe single width leakage at the jth day of the ith river reach, m3/m，MQicThe average monthly flow of the ith river reach in month c; c is the month number.
5. The method for predicting ecological water supplement of the segmented chain type urban rivers and lakes according to any one of claims 2-4, wherein the daily water supplement amount of each stage of river reach is calculated according to the formula:
Wij moisturizing＝Wij water requirement+Wij consumption-Wij water supply，Wij water supply＝Vij inlet×Aij inlet
Wherein, Wij moisturizingAnd Wij water supplyThe water supplement amount and the upstream water supplement amount of the jth day of the ith river sectionAmount of water, m3；Vij inletIs the cross-sectional flow velocity, m, of the upstream inlet on the jth day of the ith river section3/s；Aij inletIs the cross-sectional area of the upstream inlet on the jth day of the ith river section, m2。
6. The method for predicting ecological water supplement of the segmented chain type city rivers and lakes according to claim 1, wherein the method for acquiring planned water use increment of the city to be researched in the next year comprises the following steps:
step S61, calculating the domestic water increase amount:
ΔWmax life＝Wmax life-WLife savingΔWmin life＝Wmin life-WLife saving
Wherein, Δ Wmax lifeUpper limit of growth of domestic water, m3；ΔWmin lifeLower limit of growth of domestic water, m3；Wmin lifeFor the minimum value of water consumption in the future year, m3；Wmax lifeM is the maximum value of water consumption for the life of the future year3；WLife savingM is the average of water consumption in the past 5 years3；
Step S62, calculating an increase amount of industrial water:
ΔWmax industry＝Wmax industry-WIndustrial processΔWmin industry＝Wmin industry-WIndustrial process
Wherein, Δ Wmax industryAnd Δ Wmin industryRespectively an upper limit and a lower limit of the growth amount of the industrial water, m3；Wmin industryFor the minimum value of industrial water consumption in the future year, m3；Wmax industryFor the maximum value of industrial water consumption in the future year, m3；WIndustrial processM is the average value of industrial water consumption in the last 5 years3；
Step S63, calculating the agricultural water increase:
ΔWmax agriculture＝Wmax agriculture-WAgricultural productionΔWmin agriculture＝Wmin agriculture-WAgricultural production
Wherein, Δ Wmax agricultureFor agricultural waterUpper limit of amount of growth, m3；ΔWmin agricultureThe lower limit of the growth of agricultural water, m3；Wmin agricultureThe minimum value of agricultural water consumption m in the future year3；Wmax agricultureM is the maximum value of agricultural water consumption in the future3；WAgricultural productionM is the average value of agricultural water consumption in the last 5 years3；
Step S64, calculating the growth of the ecological water on the urban ground:
ΔWmax ecology＝Wmax ecology-WEcological environmentΔWmin ecology＝Wmin ecology-WEcological environment
Wherein, Δ Wmax agricultureThe upper limit of the growth amount of the ecological water on the ground is m3；ΔWmin agricultureThe lower limit of the growth amount of ecological water on the ground, m3；Wmin groundThe minimum value of the ground ecological water consumption m in the future3；Wmax groundThe maximum value of the ecological water consumption on the ground in the future year is m3；WGround surfaceThe average value of the ground ecological water consumption m in the last 5 years3；
Step S65, calculating the planned water consumption increment of the next year of the research city:
ΔWmax city＝ΔWmax life+ΔWmax industry+ΔWmax agriculture+ΔWmax ecology
ΔWmin city＝ΔWmin life+ΔWmin industry+ΔWmin agriculture+ΔWmin ecology，ΔWmin city≤ΔWCity≤ΔWmax city。
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