CN112907073B - Rainstorm induced muck landslide risk identification method and system - Google Patents

Rainstorm induced muck landslide risk identification method and system Download PDF

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CN112907073B
CN112907073B CN202110192718.5A CN202110192718A CN112907073B CN 112907073 B CN112907073 B CN 112907073B CN 202110192718 A CN202110192718 A CN 202110192718A CN 112907073 B CN112907073 B CN 112907073B
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landslide
muck
rainstorm
probability
slope
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CN112907073A (en
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冯少杰
胡航
孙世国
宋志飞
金松丽
刘雷鹏
付阁
高晨
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North China University of Technology
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    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
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    • G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
    • G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
    • G06Q10/0639—Performance analysis of employees; Performance analysis of enterprise or organisation operations
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    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
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Abstract

The invention discloses a method and a system for identifying risk of inducing slag soil landslide by rainstorm, wherein rainfall time, rainfall intensity, permeability coefficient and slope angle are obtained firstly; secondly, determining a slope state value according to rainfall time, rainfall intensity, permeability coefficient and slope angle; then determining the probability of inducing slag soil landslide by rainstorm according to the slope state value; and finally, determining the risk level of rainstorm induced muck landslide according to the probability of rainstorm induced muck landslide. The method comprehensively considers rainfall time, rainfall intensity, permeability coefficient and slope angle aiming at the slag soil slope with the slope angle of 30-60 degrees, thereby realizing the rapid and accurate identification of the risk of slag soil landslide induced by rainstorm and providing favorable support for avoiding the occurrence of similar disasters and the prevention and control of urban safety.

Description

Rainstorm induced muck landslide risk identification method and system
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of residue soil landslide risk identification, in particular to a method and a system for identifying residue soil landslide risk induced by rainstorm.
Background
Landslide is one of common geological disasters in China, accounts for about 75% of the geological disasters, and according to statistical data, more than 95% of landslides are closely related to rainfall, and visible rainfall, particularly heavy rain, is a main factor for inducing landslide. At present, along with the rise of urban super high-rise buildings and the development of urban underground spaces, a large amount of engineering muck or construction waste is brought, more and more muck absorption fields appear in cities, only the Beijing area exists at 58 places of various muck absorption fields in 2020, huge potential safety hazards are brought to urban development, and particularly, the occurrence of landslide accidents of Shenzhen 12.20 Shenzhen muck fields in 2015 sounds an alarm clock for urban development.
At present, two methods, namely a numerical simulation method and a model test method, are mainly adopted for the research of identifying the rainstorm induced muck landslide risk, the methods need to spend long time and research expenditure, and the accuracy is low, so that how to provide a technical problem which needs to be solved urgently in the field of quickly and accurately identifying the rainstorm induced muck landslide risk is provided.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a rainstorm induced muck landslide risk identification method and system to improve the rapidity and accuracy of identification.
In order to achieve the aim, the invention provides a method for identifying the risk of rainstorm induced muck landslide, which comprises the following steps
Step S1: acquiring a landslide disaster-causing factor; the landslide disaster-causing factor comprises rainfall time, rainfall intensity, permeability coefficient and slope angle;
step S2: determining a slope state value according to the landslide disaster-causing factor;
step S3: determining the probability of inducing slag soil landslide by rainstorm according to the slope state value;
step S4: and determining the risk level of rainstorm induced muck landslide according to the probability of rainstorm induced muck landslide.
Optionally, the slope state value is determined according to the landslide disaster causing factor, and a specific formula is as follows:
Figure GDA0003155374740000011
wherein z represents a slope state value, k represents a permeability coefficient, t represents rainfall time, q represents rainfall intensity, and a fitting coefficient A1＝-49.3i5+301.1i4-715.8i3+834.3i2480.2i +110.7, fitting coefficient A2＝100i2229.4i +162.6, fitting coefficient A3＝1511i6-9933i5+26480i4-36600i3+27610i2-10760i +1697, fitting coefficient B1＝-15i2+26.9i-1.2, coefficient B2＝-0.26i-1.2+0.5, fitting coefficient B3＝-26.6i5+149.1i4-329.5i3+358.2i2191.7i +41.6, fitting coefficient B4＝5581i6-37690i5+103900i4-149500i3+118600i249220i +8356, fitting coefficient B5＝0.1i3+1.8i24.2i +2.8, fitting coefficient B6＝5.9i5+38.8i497.2i3+118.3i2-70.5i + 17.1; i denotes tan α, i denotes a tangent value of a slope angle, and α denotes a slope angle.
Optionally, the determination of the probability of inducing the muck landslide by rainstorm according to the slope state value is performed by using a specific formula:
Figure GDA0003155374740000021
wherein p (z) represents a probability of inducing a slag landslide by rainstorm.
Optionally, the determining a risk level of rainstorm induced muck landslide according to the probability of rainstorm induced muck landslide specifically includes:
when the probability of inducing the muck landslide by the rainstorm is smaller than a first set threshold value, the muck side slope is very stable;
when the probability of inducing the muck landslide by the rainstorm is greater than or equal to a first set threshold and less than a second set threshold, the muck side slope is relatively stable;
when the probability of inducing the muck landslide by the rainstorm is greater than or equal to a second set threshold and less than a third set threshold, the muck side slope is generally stable;
when the probability of inducing the muck landslide by rainstorm is greater than or equal to a third set threshold and less than a fourth set threshold, indicating the risk of muck side slope;
and when the probability of inducing the muck landslide by the rainstorm is greater than a fourth set threshold value, the muck side slope is very dangerous.
Optionally, the muck includes construction waste, piled soil, crushed rock and slag waste.
The invention also provides a rainstorm induced muck landslide risk identification system, which comprises
The acquisition module is used for acquiring a landslide disaster-causing factor; the landslide disaster-causing factor comprises rainfall time, rainfall intensity, permeability coefficient and slope angle;
the slope state value determining module is used for determining a slope state value according to the landslide disaster causing factor;
the slag soil landslide probability determination module is used for determining the probability of inducing the slag soil landslide by rainstorm according to the side slope state value;
and the slag soil landslide risk grade determination module is used for determining the rainstorm induced slag soil landslide risk grade according to the rainstorm induced slag soil landslide probability.
Optionally, the slope state value is determined according to the landslide disaster causing factor, and a specific formula is as follows:
Figure GDA0003155374740000031
wherein z represents a slope state value, k represents a permeability coefficient, t represents rainfall time, q represents rainfall intensity, and a fitting coefficient A1＝-49.3i5+301.1i4-715.8i3+834.3i2480.2i +110.7, fitting coefficient A2＝100i2229.4i +162.6, fitting coefficient A3＝1511i6-9933i5+26480i4-36600i3+27610i2-10760i +1697, fitting coefficient B1＝-15i2+26.9i-1.2, coefficient B2＝-0.26i-1.2+0.5, fitting coefficient B3＝-26.6i5+149.1i4-329.5i3+358.2i2191.7i +41.6, fitting coefficient B4＝5581i6-37690i5+103900i4-149500i3+118600i249220i +8356, fitting coefficient B5＝0.1i3+1.8i24.2i +2.8, fitting coefficient B6＝5.9i5+38.8i497.2i3+118.3i2-70.5i + 17.1; i denotes tan α, i denotes a tangent value of a slope angle, and α denotes a slope angle.
Optionally, the determination of the probability of inducing the muck landslide by rainstorm according to the slope state value is performed by using a specific formula:
Figure GDA0003155374740000032
wherein p (z) represents a probability of inducing a slag landslide by rainstorm.
Optionally, the muck landslide risk level determination module specifically includes:
when the probability of inducing the muck landslide by the rainstorm is smaller than a first set threshold value, the muck side slope is very stable;
when the probability of inducing the muck landslide by the rainstorm is greater than or equal to a first set threshold and less than a second set threshold, the muck side slope is relatively stable;
when the probability of inducing the muck landslide by the rainstorm is greater than or equal to a second set threshold and less than a third set threshold, the muck side slope is generally stable;
when the probability of inducing the muck landslide by rainstorm is greater than or equal to a third set threshold and less than a fourth set threshold, indicating the risk of muck side slope;
and when the probability of inducing the muck landslide by the rainstorm is greater than a fourth set threshold value, the muck side slope is very dangerous.
Optionally, the muck includes construction waste, piled soil, crushed rock and slag waste.
According to the specific embodiment provided by the invention, the invention discloses the following technical effects:
the invention discloses a method and a system for identifying risk of inducing slag soil landslide by rainstorm, wherein rainfall time, rainfall intensity, permeability coefficient and slope angle are obtained firstly; secondly, determining a slope state value according to rainfall time, rainfall intensity, permeability coefficient and slope angle; then determining the probability of inducing slag soil landslide by rainstorm according to the slope state value; and finally, determining the risk level of rainstorm induced muck landslide according to the probability of rainstorm induced muck landslide. The method comprehensively considers rainfall time, rainfall intensity, permeability coefficient and slope angle aiming at the slag soil slope with the slope angle of 30-60 degrees, thereby realizing the rapid and accurate identification of the risk of slag soil landslide induced by rainstorm and providing favorable support for avoiding the occurrence of similar disasters and the prevention and control of urban safety.
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In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings needed to be used in the embodiments will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious for those skilled in the art to obtain other drawings without inventive exercise.
FIG. 1 is a graph of a sigmoid function according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a graph of a z-t fit of an embodiment of the invention;
FIG. 3 is a graph of a fit of q-a according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 4 shows an embodiment q-t of the present invention0Fitting a curve graph;
FIG. 5 shows an embodiment k-a of the present invention1Fitting a curve graph;
FIG. 6 shows an embodiment k-a of the present invention2Fitting a curve graph;
FIG. 7 shows an embodiment k-a of the present invention3Fitting a curve graph;
FIG. 8 is a graph of a fit of k-a according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 9 shows an embodiment k-b of the present invention1A curve fitting graph;
FIG. 10 shows an embodiment k-b of the present invention2A curve fitting graph;
FIG. 11 shows an embodiment k-b of the present invention3A curve fitting graph;
FIG. 12 shows an embodiment k-t of the present invention0A variation graph;
FIG. 13 is a flowchart of a method for identifying risk of inducing a slag landslide by rainstorm according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 14 is a structural diagram of a rainstorm induced muck landslide risk identification system according to an embodiment of the invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
The invention aims to provide a rainstorm induced muck landslide risk identification method and system to improve the rapidity and accuracy of identification.
In order to make the aforementioned objects, features and advantages of the present invention comprehensible, embodiments accompanied with figures are described in further detail below.
As shown in fig. 13, the present invention discloses a method for identifying risk of inducing a slag landslide by rainstorm, which comprises:
step S1: acquiring a landslide disaster-causing factor; the landslide disaster-causing factor comprises rainfall time, rainfall intensity, permeability coefficient and slope angle.
Step S2: and determining a slope state value according to the landslide disaster-causing factor.
Step S3: and determining the probability of inducing the slag soil landslide by rainstorm according to the slope state value.
Step S4: and determining the risk level of rainstorm induced muck landslide according to the probability of rainstorm induced muck landslide.
The individual steps are discussed in detail below:
step S1: acquiring a landslide disaster-causing factor; the landslide disaster-causing factor comprises rainfall time t, rainfall intensity q, permeability coefficient k and slope angle alpha.
The invention adopts a nonlinear classification model Z ═ f (t, q, k, tan alpha) to calculate the value of the weight function Z based on the landslide disaster-causing factor. The total consideration of 7 slope angles of the slope models is 30 degrees, 35 degrees, 40 degrees, 45 degrees, 50 degrees, 55 degrees and 60 degrees, 9 rainfall times, 11 rainfall intensities and 8 permeability coefficients are considered in each slope model, and therefore 5544 landslide probability data points are calculated. The values of the landslide disaster-causing factors are detailed in table 1.
TABLE 1 landslide disaster-causing factor value-taking table
Figure GDA0003155374740000061
Step S2: determining a slope state value according to the landslide disaster causing factor, which specifically comprises the following steps:
step S21: constructing a slope state value formula according to the rainfall time t, the rainfall intensity q and the permeability coefficient k, wherein the concrete process is as follows:
(1) considering the influence of rainfall time:
as shown in fig. 2, the first fitting is performed by taking the rainfall time t as an independent variable, the slope state value z as a dependent variable, and a slope model with a slope angle of 30 degrees, a permeability coefficient of 100mm/d and a rainfall intensity of 100mm/d as an example, so as to obtain fitting coefficients a and b, wherein the specific formula is as follows:
z＝at+b (1)。
the fitting coefficient a represents the landslide probability increase rate, can be understood as the rainwater infiltration amount in unit time, has a relation with the rainfall intensity q, the permeability coefficient k and the slope ratio i, is 23.52, represents the state coefficient of the slope at the initial moment, and is 17.75.
(2) Considering the influence of rainfall intensity:
as shown in FIG. 3, the rainfall intensity q is used as independent variable, the rainwater infiltration a in unit time obtained by the first fitting is used as dependent variable, the second fitting is carried out by taking a slope model with a slope angle of 30 degrees and a permeability coefficient of 100mm/d as an example, and a fitting coefficient a is obtained1、a2、a3The concrete formula is as follows:
Figure GDA0003155374740000062
when the rainfall intensity is greater than the permeability coefficient, the rainwater infiltration amount per unit time tends to be stable.
Introducing a new variable t0，t0In order to make the slope state value z reach-5 (namely when the landslide probability is 0.67%), the specific formula is as follows:
at0+b＝-5 (3)。
according to the formula (1) and the formula (3), the slope state values Z and t can be obtained0Expression (4) is as follows:
z＝a(t-t0)-5 (4)。
as shown in FIG. 4, a slope model with a slope angle of 30 degrees and a permeability coefficient of 100mm/d is taken as an example to perform a third fitting to obtain a fitting coefficient b1、b2And b3The concrete formula is as follows:
Figure GDA0003155374740000071
wherein the fitting coefficient b1499.4, b2Is 1.721, b3Is 0.31. The shorter the time required for the slope state value Z to reach-5 with an increase in rainfall intensity.
The functional relationship between the slope stability state value z, the rainfall time t and the rainfall intensity q can be obtained by the formulas (2), (4) and (5), and the expression (6) is as follows:
Figure GDA0003155374740000072
(3) considering the permeability coefficient effect:
as shown in FIGS. 5-12, the permeability coefficient k is used as the independent variable, and the fitting coefficient a is used as the independent variable1、a2、a3、b1、b2And b3Taking the slope angle of 30 degrees as an example as a dependent variable, performing fourth fitting to obtain a fitting coefficient A1、A2、A3、B1、B2、B3、B4、B5And B6The specific fitting formula is as follows:
k-a1the fitting formula expression is:
Figure GDA0003155374740000073
k-a2the fitting formula expression is:
Figure GDA0003155374740000074
k-a3the fitting formula expression is:
a3＝1-A3k-0.9 (9)。
k-b1the fitting formula expression is:
Figure GDA0003155374740000075
k-b2the fitting formula expression is:
b2＝B3 (11)。
k-b3the fitting formula expression is:
Figure GDA0003155374740000076
wherein, the slope angle of the side slope is 30 degrees corresponding to the fitting coefficient A1Is 4.1, A2Is 63.5, A3Is 4.1, B1Is 9.3, B2Is 0.005, B3Is 1.85, B4Is 20.8, B5Is 0.936, B6Is 0.11.
The functional relationship between the landslide probability increase rate a and the permeability coefficient k can be obtained according to the equations (2), (7), (8) and (9) as shown in the equation (13).
Figure GDA0003155374740000081
The functional relationship between the state coefficient b and the permeability coefficient k of the slope at the initial moment can be obtained according to the equations (5), (10), (11) and (12) as shown in the equation (14).
Figure GDA0003155374740000082
The formula of the slope state value can be obtained according to the formulas (4), (13) and (14) and is shown as the formula (15).
Figure GDA0003155374740000083
(4) Considering the side slope angle effect:
the tangent value of the slope angle is taken as an independent variable, and the fitting coefficient A of the slope angle of the side slope is fixed1、A2、A3、B1、B2、B3、B4、B5、B6Fitting is performed as a dependent variable, and a fitting formula considering the influence of slope angle change of the side slope is obtained as follows:
i-A1the fitting formula expression is:
A1＝-49.3i5+301.1i4-715.8i3+834.3i2-480.2i+110.7 (16)。
i-A2the fitting formula expression is:
A2＝100i2-229.4i+162.6 (17)。
i-A3the fitting formula expression is:
A3＝1511i6-9933i5+26480i4-36600i3+27610i2-10760i+1697 (18)。
i-B1the fitting formula expression is:
B1＝-15i2+26.9i-1.2 (19)。
i-B2the fitting formula expression is:
B2＝-0.26i-1.2+0.5 (20)。
i-B3expression of fitting formulaThe formula is as follows:
B3＝-26.6i5+149.1i4-329.5i3+358.2i2-191.7i+41.6 (21)。
i-B4the fitting formula expression is:
B4＝5581i6-37690i5+103900i4-149500i3+118600i2-49220i+83567 (22)。
i-B5the fitting formula expression is:
B5＝0.1i3+1.8i2-4.2i+2.8 (23)。
i-B6the fitting formula expression is:
B6＝5.9i5+38.8i497.2i3+118.3i2-70.5i+17.1 (24)。
the fitting coefficient A under any slope angle can be calculated by using a fitting formula considering the change influence of the slope angle1、A2、A3、B1、B2、B3、B4、B5And B6。
Step S22: substituting a fitting formula considering the influence of slope angle change into a slope state value formula to obtain a slope state value under any slope angle, wherein the specific formula is as follows:
Figure GDA0003155374740000091
wherein z represents a slope state value, k represents a permeability coefficient, t represents rainfall time, q represents rainfall intensity, and a fitting coefficient A1＝-49.3i5+301.1i4-715.8i3+834.3i2480.2i +110.7, fitting coefficient A2＝100i2229.4i +162.6, fitting coefficient A3＝1511i6-9933i5+26480i4-36600i3+27610i2-10760i +1697, fitting coefficient B1＝-15i2+26.9i-1.2, coefficient B2＝-0.26i-1.2+0.5, fitting coefficient B3＝-26.6i5+149.1i4-329.5i3+358.2i2191.7i +41.6, fitting coefficient B4＝5581i6-37690i5+103900i4-149500i3+118600i249220i +8356, fitting coefficient B5＝0.1i3+1.8i24.2i +2.8, fitting coefficient B6＝5.9i5+38.8i497.2i3+118.3i2-70.5i + 17.1; i denotes tan α, i denotes a tangent value of a slope angle, and α denotes a slope angle.
Step S3: determining the probability of inducing the slag soil landslide by rainstorm according to the slope state value, which specifically comprises the following steps:
the invention adopts a logistic regression model, and the weight function of the model is that z is B0+B1X1+...+B2X2，BiIs a parameter to be determined, XiThe landslide probability is corresponding to the weight function in the form of a hidden function, namely P (z) -L (B) as an influence factor0+B1X1+...+B2X2) The value of the dependent variable p (z) is determined by z, so the probability function p (z) can be written as:
Figure GDA0003155374740000101
wherein Z represents a slope state value, p (Z) represents a probability of inducing slope slide by rainstorm, and a relation curve between Z and p (Z) is a sigmoid function, as shown in fig. 1.
Step S4: determining the risk level of rainstorm induced muck landslide according to the probability of rainstorm induced muck landslide, which specifically comprises the following steps:
when the probability of inducing the muck landslide by the rainstorm is smaller than a first set threshold value, the muck side slope is very stable; when the probability of inducing the muck landslide by the rainstorm is greater than or equal to a first set threshold and less than a second set threshold, the muck side slope is relatively stable; when the probability of inducing the muck landslide by the rainstorm is greater than or equal to a second set threshold and less than a third set threshold, the muck side slope is generally stable; when the probability of inducing the muck landslide by rainstorm is greater than or equal to a third set threshold and less than a fourth set threshold, indicating the risk of muck side slope; when the probability of inducing the muck landslide by rainstorm is greater than a fourth set threshold, it indicates that the muck side slope is very dangerous (i.e. high risk), specifically, see table 2, the first set threshold is 5, the second set threshold is 30, the third set threshold is 60, and the fourth set threshold is 90, where the above set thresholds can be set according to actual needs.
TABLE 2 rainstorm inducing risk identification table for slag soil landslide
Figure GDA0003155374740000102
As shown in fig. 14, the present invention provides a rainstorm induced muck landslide risk identification system, the system comprising:
the acquiring module 1 is used for acquiring a landslide disaster-causing factor; the landslide disaster-causing factor comprises rainfall time, rainfall intensity, permeability coefficient and slope angle.
And the slope state value determining module 2 is used for determining a slope state value according to the landslide hazard-causing factor.
And the slag soil landslide probability determination module 3 is used for determining the probability of inducing slag soil landslide by rainstorm according to the slope state value.
And the slag soil landslide risk level determination module 4 is used for determining the rainstorm induced slag soil landslide risk level according to the rainstorm induced slag soil landslide probability.
As an implementation mode, the slope state value is determined according to the landslide hazard-causing factor, and a specific formula is as follows:
Figure GDA0003155374740000111
wherein z represents a slope state value, k represents a permeability coefficient, t represents rainfall time, q represents rainfall intensity, and a fitting coefficient A1＝-49.3i5+301.1i4-715.8i3+834.3i2480.2i +110.7, fitting coefficient A2＝100i2-229.4i+162.6，Fitting coefficient A3＝1511i6-9933i5+26480i4-36600i3+27610i2-10760i +1697, fitting coefficient B1＝-15i2+26.9i-1.2, coefficient B2＝-0.26i-1.2+0.5, fitting coefficient B3＝-26.6i5+149.1i4-329.5i3+358.2i2191.7i +41.6, fitting coefficient B4＝5581i6-37690i5+103900i4-149500i3+118600i249220i +8356, fitting coefficient B5＝0.1i3+1.8i24.2i +2.8, fitting coefficient B6＝5.9i5+38.8i497.2i3+118.3i2-70.5i + 17.1; i denotes tan α, i denotes a tangent value of a slope angle, and α denotes a slope angle.
As an embodiment, the determining of the probability of inducing the slag soil landslide by rainstorm according to the slope state value specifically includes:
Figure GDA0003155374740000112
wherein p (z) represents a probability of inducing a slag landslide by rainstorm.
As an implementation manner, the muck landslide risk level determination module provided by the invention specifically includes:
and when the probability of inducing the muck landslide by the rainstorm is smaller than a first set threshold value, the muck side slope is very stable.
And when the probability of inducing the muck landslide by the rainstorm is greater than or equal to a first set threshold and less than a second set threshold, the muck side slope is relatively stable.
And when the probability of inducing the muck landslide by the rainstorm is greater than or equal to a second set threshold and less than a third set threshold, the muck side slope is generally stable.
And when the probability of inducing the muck landslide by the rainstorm is greater than or equal to a third set threshold and less than a fourth set threshold, indicating the risk of the muck side slope.
And when the probability of inducing the muck landslide by the rainstorm is greater than a fourth set threshold value, the muck side slope is very dangerous.
As an embodiment, the muck of the present invention includes construction waste, stacked soil, crushed rock and slag waste.
The embodiments in the present description are described in a progressive manner, each embodiment focuses on differences from other embodiments, and the same and similar parts among the embodiments are referred to each other. For the system disclosed by the embodiment, the description is relatively simple because the system corresponds to the method disclosed by the embodiment, and the relevant points can be referred to the method part for description.
The principles and embodiments of the present invention have been described herein using specific examples, which are provided only to help understand the method and the core concept of the present invention; meanwhile, for a person skilled in the art, according to the idea of the present invention, the specific embodiments and the application range may be changed. In view of the above, the present disclosure should not be construed as limiting the invention.

Claims (8)

1. A rainstorm induced slag landslide risk identification method is characterized by comprising
Step S1: acquiring a landslide disaster-causing factor; the landslide disaster-causing factor comprises rainfall time, rainfall intensity, permeability coefficient and slope angle;
step S2: determining a slope state value according to the landslide disaster causing factor, wherein a specific formula is as follows:
Figure FDA0003155374730000011
wherein z represents a slope state value, k represents a permeability coefficient, t represents rainfall time, q represents rainfall intensity, and a fitting coefficient A1＝-49.3i5+301.1i4-715.8i3+834.3i2480.2i +110.7, fitting coefficient A2＝100i2229.4i +162.6, fitting coefficient A3＝1511i6-9933i5+26480i4-36600i3+27610i2-10760i +1697, fitting coefficient B1＝-15i2+26.9i-1.2, coefficient B2＝-0.26i-1.2+0.5, fitting coefficient B3＝-26.6i5+149.1i4-329.5i3+358.2i2191.7i +41.6, fitting coefficient B4＝5581i6-37690i5+103900i4-149500i3+118600i249220i +8356, fitting coefficient B5＝0.1i3+1.8i24.2i +2.8, fitting coefficient B6＝5.9i5+38.8i497.2i3+118.3i2-70.5i + 17.1; i ═ tan α, i denotes the slope tangent value, α denotes the slope angle;
step S3: determining the probability of inducing slag soil landslide by rainstorm according to the slope state value;
step S4: and determining the risk level of rainstorm induced muck landslide according to the probability of rainstorm induced muck landslide.
2. The method for identifying risk of rainstorm induced muck landslide according to claim 1, wherein the determining of the probability of rainstorm induced muck landslide according to the slope state value is performed by the following specific formula:
Figure FDA0003155374730000012
wherein p (z) represents a probability of inducing a slag landslide by rainstorm.
3. The method for identifying risk of rainstorm induced muck landslide according to claim 1, wherein the determining the risk level of rainstorm induced muck landslide according to the probability of rainstorm induced muck landslide specifically comprises:
when the probability of inducing the muck landslide by the rainstorm is smaller than a first set threshold value, the muck side slope is very stable;
when the probability of inducing the muck landslide by the rainstorm is greater than or equal to a first set threshold and less than a second set threshold, the muck side slope is relatively stable;
when the probability of inducing the muck landslide by the rainstorm is greater than or equal to a second set threshold and less than a third set threshold, the muck side slope is generally stable;
when the probability of inducing the muck landslide by rainstorm is greater than or equal to a third set threshold and less than a fourth set threshold, indicating the risk of muck side slope;
and when the probability of inducing the muck landslide by the rainstorm is greater than a fourth set threshold value, the muck side slope is very dangerous.
4. The method of claim 3, wherein the debris comprises construction waste, piled soil, crushed rock soil and slag waste.
5. A rainstorm induced muck landslide risk identification system, the system comprising
The acquisition module is used for acquiring a landslide disaster-causing factor; the landslide disaster-causing factor comprises rainfall time, rainfall intensity, permeability coefficient and slope angle;
the slope state value determining module is used for determining a slope state value according to the landslide disaster causing factor, and the specific formula is as follows:
Figure FDA0003155374730000021
wherein z represents a slope state value, k represents a permeability coefficient, t represents rainfall time, q represents rainfall intensity, and a fitting coefficient A1＝-49.3i5+301.1i4-715.8i3+834.3i2480.2i +110.7, fitting coefficient A2＝100i2229.4i +162.6, fitting coefficient A3＝1511i6-9933i5+26480i4-36600i3+27610i2-10760i +1697, fitting coefficient B1＝-15i2+26.9i-1.2, coefficient B2＝-0.26i-1.2+0.5, fitting coefficient B3＝-26.6i5+149.1i4-329.5i3+358.2i2191.7i +41.6, fitting coefficient B4＝5581i6-37690i5+103900i4-149500i3+118600i249220i +8356, fitting coefficient B5＝0.1i3+1.8i24.2i +2.8, fitting coefficient B6＝5.9i5+38.8i497.2i3+118.3i2-70.5i + 17.1; i ═ tan α, i denotes the slope tangent value, α denotes the slope angle;
the slag soil landslide probability determination module is used for determining the probability of inducing the slag soil landslide by rainstorm according to the side slope state value;
and the slag soil landslide risk grade determination module is used for determining the rainstorm induced slag soil landslide risk grade according to the rainstorm induced slag soil landslide probability.
6. The system for identifying risk of rainstorm induced muck landslide of claim 5, wherein the determining of the probability of rainstorm induced muck landslide based on the slope state value is according to the following formula:
Figure FDA0003155374730000031
wherein p (z) represents a probability of inducing a slag landslide by rainstorm.
7. The rainstorm induced muck landslide risk identification system of claim 5, wherein the muck landslide risk level determination module specifically comprises:
when the probability of inducing the muck landslide by the rainstorm is smaller than a first set threshold value, the muck side slope is very stable;
when the probability of inducing the muck landslide by the rainstorm is greater than or equal to a first set threshold and less than a second set threshold, the muck side slope is relatively stable;
when the probability of inducing the muck landslide by the rainstorm is greater than or equal to a second set threshold and less than a third set threshold, the muck side slope is generally stable;
when the probability of inducing the muck landslide by rainstorm is greater than or equal to a third set threshold and less than a fourth set threshold, indicating the risk of muck side slope;
and when the probability of inducing the muck landslide by the rainstorm is greater than a fourth set threshold value, the muck side slope is very dangerous.
8. The rainstorm induced muck landslide risk identification system of claim 7 wherein the muck comprises construction waste, piled soil, crushed rock soil and slag waste.
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