CN111563621A - Method, system, device and storage medium for assessing risk of regional landslide - Google Patents
Method, system, device and storage medium for assessing risk of regional landslide Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention relates to a method, a system, a device and a storage medium for assessing the risk of regional landslide, which comprises the steps of obtaining regional basic data of a research area, and obtaining mechanical parameters and rainfall data according to the regional basic data; obtaining underground water level change data at each moment in the whole rainfall period by adopting a regional rainfall infiltration numerical simulation method according to mechanical parameters and rainfall data; analyzing the stability of the research area by adopting a limit balance method to obtain the landslide occurrence probability and the landslide intensity occurrence probability at each moment in the rainfall period; and establishing a risk calculation formula of the landslide disaster according to the occurrence probability of all landslides and the occurrence probability of all landslide intensities in the rainfall period, and obtaining the risk of the research area according to the risk calculation formula. According to the method, a risk prediction model based on a rainfall-induced landslide formation mechanism is established, the quantitative expression of landslide strength in landslide risk assessment is realized, and the reliability of regional landslide disaster risk assessment is improved.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of landslide risk prediction, in particular to a method, a system, a device and a storage medium for risk assessment of regional landslide.
Background
Landslide hazard risk assessment is the basis of landslide risk research and is also an important means for realizing landslide hazard prediction and then making a prevention and control plan.
The current landslide risk prediction method generally considers geological and geomorphic conditions formed by disasters based on a mathematical model, establishes a statistical relationship model between rainfall and disaster events, and further performs risk prediction on regional landslides, wherein a theoretical framework of the method belongs to the category of statistical prediction. However, the method not only needs a large amount of accurate historical landslide time and rainfall data, but also adopts the basic data after landslide in most cases during evaluation and analysis, has strong dependence on historical data, does not fully consider the physical and mechanical mechanism of landslide, and has certain limitations on application and accuracy; in addition, the quantification degree of the landslide risk in the method is not enough, and the method is not beneficial to appointing a corresponding prevention and control plan.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to solve the technical problems of the prior art, provides a method, a system, a device and a storage medium for evaluating the risk of regional landslide, establishes a risk prediction model based on a rainfall-induced landslide formation mechanism, realizes quantitative expression of landslide action strength in regional landslide hazard risk evaluation, improves reliability of regional landslide hazard risk evaluation results, and has a good application prospect.
The technical scheme for solving the technical problems is as follows:
a risk assessment method for regional landslide comprises the following steps:
step 1: acquiring regional basic data of a research area, and acquiring mechanical parameters and rainfall data of the research area according to the regional basic data;
step 2: obtaining underground water level change data of the research area at each moment in the whole rainfall period by adopting a regional rainfall infiltration numerical simulation method according to the mechanical parameters and the rainfall data;
and step 3: selecting any moment in the rainfall period, and analyzing the stability of the research area at the selected moment by adopting a limit balance method according to the mechanical parameters and underground water level change data at the selected moment to obtain the landslide occurrence probability of the research area at the selected moment and a plurality of landslide intensities corresponding to the landslide occurrence probability;
and 4, step 4: obtaining a landslide intensity occurrence probability corresponding to the landslide occurrence probability at a selected moment in the research area by adopting a maximum likelihood estimation method according to the landslide occurrence probability at the selected moment and all landslide intensities;
and 5: traversing each moment in the rainfall period, and repeating the steps 3 to 4 to obtain the landslide occurrence probability and the landslide intensity occurrence probability corresponding to the landslide occurrence probability at each moment in the rainfall period;
step 6: and establishing a risk calculation formula of the landslide disaster according to the occurrence probability of all landslides and the occurrence probability of all landslide intensities in the rainfall period, and obtaining the risk of the research area according to the risk calculation formula.
According to another aspect of the present invention, a system for assessing risk of regional landslide is also provided, which is applied to the method for assessing risk of regional landslide of the present invention, and comprises a data acquisition module, a data processing module, a stability analysis module, a probability estimation module, and a risk calculation module;
the data acquisition module is used for acquiring regional basic data of a research area and obtaining mechanical parameters and rainfall data of the research area according to the regional basic data;
the data processing module is used for obtaining underground water level change data of the research area at each moment in the whole rainfall period by adopting a regional rainfall infiltration numerical simulation method according to the mechanical parameters and the rainfall data;
the stability analysis module is used for selecting any moment in the rainfall period, analyzing the stability of the research area at the selected moment by adopting a limit balance method according to the mechanical parameters and the underground water level change data at the selected moment, and obtaining the landslide occurrence probability of the research area at the selected moment and a plurality of landslide intensities corresponding to the landslide occurrence probability;
the probability estimation module is used for obtaining the landslide intensity occurrence probability corresponding to the landslide occurrence probability at a selected moment in the research area by adopting a maximum likelihood estimation method according to the landslide occurrence probability at the selected moment and all the landslide intensities; the rainfall measuring device is also used for obtaining the landslide occurrence probability at each moment in the rainfall period and the landslide intensity occurrence probability corresponding to the landslide occurrence probability;
and the risk calculation module is used for establishing a risk calculation formula of the landslide disaster according to the occurrence probability of all landslides and the occurrence probability of all landslide intensities in the rainfall period and obtaining the risk of the research area according to the risk calculation formula.
According to another aspect of the present invention, there is provided a risk assessment device for regional landslide, comprising a processor, a memory and a computer program stored in the memory and operable on the processor, wherein the computer program when executed implements the steps of a method for assessing risk of regional landslide of the present invention.
In accordance with another aspect of the present invention, there is provided a computer storage medium comprising: at least one instruction which, when executed, implements a step in a method for risk assessment of regional landslide of the present invention.
The method, the system, the device and the storage medium for assessing the risk of the regional landslide have the beneficial effects that: obtaining mechanical parameters and rainfall data corresponding to the research area according to the obtained basic data of the research area, then obtaining underground water level change data at each moment in the whole rainfall period according to the mechanical parameters and the rainfall data by adopting an area rainfall infiltration numerical simulation method, on one hand, the phenomenon that the traditional technology only depends on historical landslide data or data after landslide occurs is avoided, the dependence on historical data is greatly reduced, on the other hand, subsequent analysis is carried out on the basis of the mechanical parameters, the physical and mechanical mechanism of landslide occurrence is fully considered, and the precision of the risk assessment of the landslide of the research area is ensured; the method comprises the steps of analyzing the stability of a research area to obtain landslide occurrence probability and a plurality of landslide intensities corresponding to the landslide occurrence probability, then establishing a landslide hazard calculation formula to calculate the hazard, solving the problem that the landslide intensity is not sufficient in the existing landslide hazard analysis, and promoting the quantitative expression of the regional landslide hazard action intensity.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a method for assessing risk of regional landslide according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic flow chart of obtaining groundwater level change data at each moment according to a first embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic flow chart illustrating the process of obtaining the risk of the research area according to the first embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a flowchart illustrating another method for assessing risk of landslide according to one embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 5 is a schematic structural diagram of a system for risk assessment of regional landslide according to a second embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 6 is a schematic structural diagram of another regional landslide risk assessment system according to a second embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The principles and features of this invention are described below in conjunction with the following drawings, which are set forth by way of illustration only and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention.
The present invention will be described with reference to the accompanying drawings.
In one embodiment, as shown in fig. 1, a method for assessing risk of regional landslide includes the following steps:
s1: acquiring regional basic data of a research area, and acquiring mechanical parameters and rainfall data of the research area according to the regional basic data;
s2: obtaining underground water level change data of the research area at each moment in the whole rainfall period by adopting a regional rainfall infiltration numerical simulation method according to the mechanical parameters and the rainfall data;
s3: selecting any moment in the rainfall period, and analyzing the stability of the research area at the selected moment by adopting a limit balance method according to the mechanical parameters and underground water level change data at the selected moment to obtain the landslide occurrence probability of the research area at the selected moment and a plurality of landslide intensities corresponding to the landslide occurrence probability;
s4: obtaining a landslide intensity occurrence probability corresponding to the landslide occurrence probability at a selected moment in the research area by adopting a maximum likelihood estimation method according to the landslide occurrence probability at the selected moment and all landslide intensities;
s5: traversing each moment in the rainfall period, and repeating S3-S4 to obtain the landslide occurrence probability and the landslide intensity occurrence probability corresponding to the landslide occurrence probability at each moment in the rainfall period;
s6: and establishing a risk calculation formula of the landslide disaster according to the occurrence probability of all landslides and the occurrence probability of all landslide intensities in the rainfall period, and obtaining the risk of the research area according to the risk calculation formula.
Obtaining mechanical parameters and rainfall data corresponding to the research area according to the obtained basic data of the research area, then obtaining underground water level change data at each moment in the whole rainfall period according to the mechanical parameters and the rainfall data by adopting an area rainfall infiltration numerical simulation method, on one hand, the phenomenon that the traditional technology only depends on historical landslide data or data after landslide occurs is avoided, the dependence on historical data is greatly reduced, on the other hand, subsequent analysis is carried out on the basis of the mechanical parameters, the physical and mechanical mechanism of landslide occurrence is fully considered, and the precision of the risk assessment of the landslide of the research area is ensured; the landslide occurrence probability and a plurality of landslide intensities corresponding to the landslide occurrence probability are obtained by analyzing the stability of a research area, and then a landslide hazard risk calculation formula is established to calculate the hazard, so that the problem that the landslide intensity quantification degree in the existing landslide hazard analysis is insufficient is solved, and the quantitative expression of the regional landslide hazard action intensity is promoted;
the risk prediction model based on the rainfall-induced landslide formation mechanism is established, quantitative expression of landslide action strength in regional landslide hazard risk assessment is achieved, reliability of regional landslide hazard risk assessment results is improved, the method can be used for regional risk assessment of all rainfall type soil landslides, operability is high, and the method has a good application prospect.
Specifically, the specific operation steps of the area rainfall infiltration numerical simulation method in this embodiment S2 are the prior art, and the details are not described herein again.
Preferably, the regional basis data includes geological environment data, geomorphologic data, and drilling measurement data, and also includes historical rainfall data and/or rainfall monitoring data.
Preferably, in S1, the specific step of acquiring the area basic data includes:
acquiring the geological environment data and the historical rainfall data of the research area by using a big data acquisition method;
acquiring the landform shape data of the research area by using a low-altitude photography method;
acquiring said drilling measurement data for said area of interest using a drilling survey method;
and acquiring the rainfall monitoring data of the research area by utilizing rainfall monitoring equipment.
The area basic data comprising the geological environment data, the landform form data, the drilling measurement data, the historical rainfall data and/or the rainfall monitoring data avoids the condition that the traditional technology only depends on the historical landslide data or the data after landslide occurs, greatly reduces the dependency on the historical data, and facilitates the subsequent acquisition of mechanical parameters and rainfall data of a research area, thereby facilitating the establishment of a risk prediction model based on a rainfall-induced landslide formation mechanism by considering the physical and mechanical mechanism of landslide occurrence.
Specifically, geological environment data comprises geological maps, topographic maps and the like, topographic form data is DEM (Digital Elevation Model) data, which mainly describes the spatial distribution of regional topographic forms, and is formed by performing data acquisition (including sampling and measurement) through contour lines or similar three-dimensional models and then performing data interpolation; the DEM is a virtual representation of landform morphology, can derive information such as contour lines, gradient maps and the like, and can also be superposed with DOM (document object model) or other thematic data for analysis application related to landform; the drilling measurement data includes overburden thickness and initial water table, etc.; the rainfall monitoring data comprises real-time rainfall time, real-time rainfall intensity, real-time rainfall type and the like.
Preferably, in S1, the specific step of obtaining the mechanical parameters and the rainfall data of the research area includes:
obtaining the rainfall data of the research area according to the historical rainfall data and/or the rainfall monitoring data; wherein the rainfall data comprises duration of rainfall, intensity of rainfall and rainfall type;
obtaining the mechanical parameters of the research area according to the geological environment data, the landform shape data and the drilling measurement data; the mechanical parameters comprise rock-soil body physical mechanical parameters and hydraulic parameters.
Through historical rainfall data and/or rainfall monitoring data, the duration of rainfall, rainfall intensity and rainfall type of research are conveniently predicted, and data support is provided for a risk prediction model for subsequently establishing a rainfall induced landslide forming mechanism according to mechanical parameters; and the rainfall-induced landslide forming mechanism is closely related to the mechanical parameters of the research area, so that the landslide risk evaluation model established based on the mechanical parameters is more reliable in landslide risk evaluation.
Specifically, the mechanical parameters comprise rock-soil body physical mechanical parameters and hydraulic parameters, wherein the rock-soil body physical mechanical parameters specifically comprise saturation gravity, natural gravity, shear strength (the shear strength depends on cohesive force and an internal friction angle), cover layer thickness, dynamic friction coefficient and the like, and the hydraulic parameters specifically comprise permeability coefficient, natural water content, saturated water content and the like; the rainfall type in the rainfall data comprises a real-time rainfall difference rainfall type, a historical extreme rainfall uniformity rainfall type and the like.
Preferably, as shown in fig. 2, S3 specifically includes:
s31: selecting any moment in the rainfall period according to the duration of rainfall, taking the mechanical parameters as random variables, and obtaining a plurality of random variable parameter values of the research area at the selected moment by adopting a random method according to the random variables and groundwater level change data at the selected moment;
s32: calculating to obtain a stability coefficient corresponding to each random variable parameter value of the research area at a selected moment by adopting the limit balance method according to each random variable parameter value;
s33: calculating to obtain the landslide occurrence probability of the research area at a selected moment according to all the stability coefficients, and calculating to obtain a plurality of landslide intensities corresponding to the landslide occurrence probability of the research area at the selected moment according to each stability coefficient;
the formula for calculating the landslide occurrence probability of the research area at the tth moment is specifically as follows:
wherein, PfstFor the region of interest at the t-th momentProbability of occurrence of downhill slide, FstThe stability coefficient of the research area at the t moment is defined, N is the total number of the stability coefficients of the research area at the t moment, M is the stability coefficient of the research area at the t moment and satisfies FstThe number is less than or equal to 1;
the formula for calculating the ith landslide intensity corresponding to the landslide occurrence probability in the study area at the tth moment is specifically as follows:
wherein, Ii(t) is the probability P of occurrence of landslide at the tth moment in the study areafstCorresponding ith landslide intensity, Fi(t) the area of interest satisfies F at the time tstThe residual gliding force between the gliding force corresponding to the ith stability coefficient less than or equal to 1 and the anti-gliding force, g is the gravity acceleration, hi、fi、mi(t) and αiRespectively for the study region satisfying F at the t-th momentstThe sliding height of the landslide, the dynamic friction coefficient of the landslide, the mass of the sliding body and the slope of the landslide corresponding to the ith stability coefficient of not more than 1.
At the time t, the mechanical parameters are used as random variables, N random variable parameter values meeting probability distribution can be generated by adopting a random method, and then corresponding N stability coefficients F can be calculated by adopting a limit balance methodstAt the N stability coefficients FstIn (3), F can be countedstLess than or equal to 1 (i.e. F)stThe number M is less than or equal to 1), namely the stability coefficient of the research area at the t moment satisfies FstProbability of ≦ 1, i.e. P (F)stLess than or equal to 1); due to the stability factor FstIs determined by the resistance to/glide of the sliding force, if FstLess than 1 indicates a greater downhill force than the anti-skid force, i.e. the slope is about to glide, i.e. is unstable, and FstA value equal to 1 means that the state of equilibrium is at its limit, so that the stability factor of the region of interest at the time t satisfies FstThe probability less than or equal to 1 is the landslide occurrence probability at the corresponding moment; due to FstLess than or equal to 1 (i.e. F)st1) is M, so that correspondingly, the landslide strength with M different strengths can be obtained under the landslide occurrence probability.
From the basic definition analysis of physics, the landslide strength refers to the size of energy released in the occurrence process of a landslide event, and the intuitive expression form of the landslide strength is the movement speed characteristic after the landslide deformation is unstable, and mainly comprises the following steps: landslide motion speed, landslide motion distance, and the like. From the angle of energy, if the change of the internal energy of the landslide body is not considered in the landslide motion process, the work done by the residual sliding force is considered to be completely converted into the kinetic energy of the landslide body, and the energy released when the landslide occurs is converted into the work done by the landslide body to overcome the residual sliding force. Thus, by formulaic derivation, a quantitative relationship can be established between the characteristics of the deformation motion of the landslide and the remaining force of the landslide.
According to the method, the stability coefficient with high accuracy can be conveniently obtained according to the mechanical parameters and the underground water level change data, so that the stability of the research area at a certain moment can be analyzed, the landslide occurrence probability at a certain moment and the landslide strength corresponding to each stability coefficient at the moment can be accurately judged on the basis of the stability coefficient, and the landslide strengths are landslide strength sets corresponding to the landslide occurrence probability; by calculating the occurrence probability of landslide and the landslide strengths, a quantitative relation model between the landslide action strength and the deformation instability internal and external environment influence factor parameter sets is conveniently established subsequently, so that the landslide risk is accurately evaluated, and the reliability is high.
Specifically, in this embodiment S31, the shear strength (or the cohesion and the internal friction angle) in the mechanical parameters is used as a random variable, and the random method includes, but is not limited to, a Monte Carlo method or a point estimation method, and the obtained parameter value of the random variable is the shear strength parameter value; in this embodiment S32, the limit balance method includes, but is not limited to, an infinite slope calculation method, a simplified Bishop method, a Janbu method, and a Sarma method; the specific operation steps of the random method and the limit balancing method are the prior art, and the specific details are not described herein.
Preferably, as shown in fig. 3, S6 specifically includes:
s61: selecting the maximum landslide occurrence probability of all landslide occurrence probabilities in the rainfall period, determining the landslide intensity occurrence probability corresponding to the maximum landslide occurrence probability as the maximum landslide intensity occurrence probability, and establishing the risk calculation formula according to the maximum landslide occurrence probability and the maximum landslide intensity occurrence probability;
the risk calculation formula is specifically as follows:
H＝Pfs max×PIpfs max×PT；
wherein H is the above-mentioned risk, PfsmaxIs the maximum probability of occurrence of landslide, PIpfsmaxIs the probability of occurrence of the maximum landslide intensity, PTMeets the requirement of the occurrence probability of the specific rainfall event obtained according to the rainfall data
TrpA rainfall recurrence period in the rainfall data;
s62: and obtaining the risk of the research area according to the risk calculation formula.
In this embodiment S4, because there are M landslide intensities with different intensities under the landslide occurrence probability at a certain time, each landslide intensity has a corresponding occurrence probability under the landslide occurrence probability, and by using the maximum likelihood estimation method, the probability that one of the most likely generated landslide intensities under the landslide occurrence probability is the landslide intensity occurrence probability can be obtained; for example, a landslide passing through the probability distribution function generates 1000 cohesion and internal friction angles, which results in 1000FstSuppose there are 400F's in thisstLess than or equal to 1, the landslide occurrence probability of the landslide is 400/1000-40%, and the 400FstIn the method, 400 landslide strengths exist, and if 100 landslide strength values in the 400 landslide strengths are 5-8, the most probable landslide strength generated after the landslide occurs is 5-8, and the probability of occurrence of the landslide strength is 10 correspondingly0/400 is 25%, that is, the landslide is likely to occur at 40%, and the landslide strength corresponding to the 25% likelihood after the occurrence is 5 to 8.
Through the maximum likelihood estimation method of S4, the probability of generating landslide (i.e. the probability of occurrence of landslide) and the probability of the most probable landslide intensity after landslide generation (the probability of occurrence of landslide intensity) at each moment can be obtained, which facilitates the subsequent quantitative expression and accurate evaluation of the risk based on the landslide intensity. The specific operation steps of the maximum likelihood estimation method are the prior art, and the details are not described herein.
The landslide hazard is the possibility of landslide of a certain scale in a certain time period in a certain area and is a comprehensive concept of space position, landslide scale, sliding speed and occurrence frequency, so that the maximum landslide occurrence probability and the maximum landslide intensity occurrence probability of the maximum landslide occurrence probability are found out according to all the landslide occurrence probabilities and all the landslide intensity occurrence probabilities, then a hazard calculation formula based on the maximum landslide occurrence probability and the maximum landslide intensity occurrence probability is adopted, the factors of landslide space probability, time probability, intensity probability and the like can be comprehensively considered, the landslide hazard risk is comprehensively evaluated from a landslide formation mechanism, the reliability of the hazard evaluation is greatly improved, the landslide hazard risk evaluation is more consistent with the actual situation of landslide formation, the landslide hazard evaluation method can be used for the regional risk evaluation of all rainfall type soil landslides, and has strong operability, has good application prospect.
Specifically, the present embodiment includes the spatial probability of landslide (i.e., the maximum probability of occurrence of landslide P) in the risk calculation formulafsmax) Time probability (i.e. probability of occurrence of a particular rainfall event P)T) And the intensity probability (i.e., the maximum landslide intensity occurrence probability P)Ipfsmax)；
1) For time probability (i.e. probability of occurrence of a particular rainfall event P)T) The calculation process is explained as follows:
two situations are considered for a particular rainfall event: the actual rainfall, the extreme rainfall. For actual rainfall, the actual occurrence hour rainfall is calculated, and the occurrence probability P is consideredTIs 1;for extreme rainfall, in the research of the risk of regional landslide disaster, the calculation of regional rainfall is usually performed according to various statistical analysis methods, that is, a certain probability distribution model is utilized to calculate any rainfall recurrence period T in the research regionrpThe probability distribution model for calculating the rainfall extreme value mainly comprises ① Pearson type III distribution, ② logarithmic P-III distribution, ③ logarithmic normal distribution, ④ generalized extreme value distribution (GEV), ⑤ Gunbel (Gumbel) distribution and the like.
2) For landslide space probability (i.e. maximum landslide occurrence probability P)fsmax) The calculation process is explained as follows:
the probability of occurrence of a landslide at a certain position can be understood as the possibility of instability of the landslide under certain external conditions and for a period of time. Since the landslide stability condition is controlled by a variety of factors or variables, which have uncertainty and randomness, a function model can be constructed using these random variables to describe its stability state. A Monte Carlo simulation method is adopted to calculate the space probability of landslide, and the specific calculation method is introduced as follows:
selecting the cohesive force and the internal friction angle of the sliding mass as random variables, selecting adaptive probability distribution, generating N groups of random numbers which accord with the probability distribution of the parameter variables by using a MonteCarlo method, and calculating by using a limit balance method to obtain N stability results. When N is large enough, the frequency at this time is already similar to the probability according to the law of large numbers, and if M of the N stability results are less than or equal to 1, the probability of occurrence of landslide is obtained:
3) for the intensity probability (i.e. the maximum landslide intensity occurrence probability P)Ipfsmax) The calculation process is explained as follows:
the landslide intensity is a quantitative depiction of the energy release capacity of a landslide after the landslide occurs, the M unstable results obtained by calculation through the Monte Carlo method are respectively calculated through the established landslide intensity calculation formula, and then the probability of occurrence of the landslide intensity when the landslide occurs most probably is calculated and obtained through the maximum likelihood estimation method.
Preferably, as shown in fig. 4, the method further comprises the following steps:
s7: and establishing a landslide risk grading standard table, and inquiring the landslide risk grading standard table according to the risk of the research area to obtain the risk grade of the research area.
Through the established landslide hazard classification standard table, the hazard grade corresponding to the hazard is convenient to inquire, the hazard degree of the landslide hazard can be more intuitively and clearly known, and the corresponding prevention and control plan is convenient to timely and accurately adopt for prevention and control.
Preferably, in S7, the concrete implementation of establishing the landslide risk classification standard table is as follows:
and establishing danger levels corresponding to each preset danger threshold range one by one according to the preset danger threshold ranges of the preset number, and establishing the landslide danger grading standard table according to all the preset danger threshold ranges and all the danger levels.
By selecting the preset risk threshold range of the preset number, the risk levels of different degrees can be conveniently divided, and the corresponding risk level can be conveniently and accurately inquired in the landslide risk classification standard table according to the risk calculated in the step S6.
Specifically, in this embodiment, the preset number is 5, and the corresponding 5 preset risk threshold ranges are respectively: [0,0.15], (0,0.35], (0.35,0.55], (0.55,0.75] and (0.75,1], the risk level includes 5 levels, respectively high risk, medium risk, low risk and low risk, therefore, the preset risk threshold range and the corresponding relationship of the risk level in the landslide risk classification standard table are as follows:
h belongs to [0,0.15], and the danger level of the landslide disaster is low-degree danger;
h is an element (0, 0.35), and the danger level of the landslide disaster is lower danger;
③ H belongs to (0.35, 0.55), the danger level of the landslide disaster is moderate danger;
h is an element (0.55, 0.75), and the danger level of the landslide disaster is high danger;
h belongs to (0.75, 1), and the danger level of the landslide disaster is high danger.
In the second embodiment, as shown in fig. 5, a system for assessing the risk of regional landslide is applied to the method for assessing the risk of regional landslide in the first embodiment, and includes a data acquisition module, a data processing module, a stability analysis module, a probability estimation module, and a risk calculation module;
the data acquisition module is used for acquiring regional basic data of a research area and obtaining mechanical parameters and rainfall data of the research area according to the regional basic data;
the data processing module is used for obtaining underground water level change data of the research area at each moment in the whole rainfall period by adopting a regional rainfall infiltration numerical simulation method according to the mechanical parameters and the rainfall data;
the stability analysis module is used for selecting any moment in the rainfall period, analyzing the stability of the research area at the selected moment by adopting a limit balance method according to the mechanical parameters and the underground water level change data at the selected moment, and obtaining the landslide occurrence probability of the research area at the selected moment and a plurality of landslide intensities corresponding to the landslide occurrence probability;
the probability estimation module is used for obtaining the landslide intensity occurrence probability corresponding to the landslide occurrence probability at a selected moment in the research area by adopting a maximum likelihood estimation method according to the landslide occurrence probability at the selected moment and all the landslide intensities; the rainfall measuring device is also used for obtaining the landslide occurrence probability at each moment in the rainfall period and the landslide intensity occurrence probability corresponding to the landslide occurrence probability;
and the risk calculation module is used for establishing a risk calculation formula of the landslide disaster according to the occurrence probability of all landslides and the occurrence probability of all landslide intensities in the rainfall period and obtaining the risk of the research area according to the risk calculation formula.
According to the system for assessing the risk of the regional landslide, the data acquisition module is used for obtaining the mechanical parameters and rainfall data corresponding to the research area according to the obtained basic data of the research area, then the data processing module is used for obtaining underground water level change data at each moment in the whole rainfall period according to the mechanical parameters and the rainfall data by adopting a regional rainfall infiltration numerical simulation method, so that the situation that only historical landslide data or data after landslide occurs in the traditional technology is avoided, the dependence on the historical data is greatly reduced, on the other hand, subsequent analysis is carried out based on the mechanical parameters, the physical and mechanical mechanism of landslide occurrence is fully considered, and the precision of assessment of the risk of the landslide of the research area is guaranteed; the stability of a research area is analyzed through a stability analysis module to obtain landslide occurrence probability and a plurality of landslide intensities corresponding to the landslide occurrence probability, then a risk calculation formula of landslide disasters is established through a probability estimation module and a risk calculation module to calculate the harmfulness, the problem that the landslide intensity quantification degree is not enough in the existing landslide risk analysis is solved, and the quantitative expression of the regional landslide disaster action intensity is promoted.
Preferably, the regional basic data comprises geological environment data, geomorphologic data and drilling measurement data, and also comprises historical rainfall data and/or rainfall monitoring data;
the data acquisition module is specifically configured to:
acquiring the geological environment data and the historical rainfall data of the research area by using a big data acquisition method;
acquiring the landform shape data of the research area by using a low-altitude photography method;
acquiring said drilling measurement data for said area of interest using a drilling survey method;
and acquiring the rainfall monitoring data of the research area by utilizing rainfall monitoring equipment.
The area basic data comprising the geological environment data, the landform form data, the drilling measurement data, the historical rainfall data and/or the rainfall monitoring data avoids the condition that the traditional technology only depends on the historical landslide data or the data after landslide occurs, greatly reduces the dependency on the historical data, and facilitates the subsequent acquisition of mechanical parameters and rainfall data of a research area, thereby facilitating the establishment of a risk prediction model based on a rainfall-induced landslide formation mechanism by considering the physical and mechanical mechanism of landslide occurrence.
Preferably, the data obtaining module is further specifically configured to:
obtaining the rainfall data of the research area according to the historical rainfall data and/or the rainfall monitoring data; wherein the rainfall data comprises duration of rainfall, intensity of rainfall and rainfall type;
obtaining the mechanical parameters of the research area according to the geological environment data, the landform shape data and the drilling measurement data; the mechanical parameters comprise rock-soil body physical mechanical parameters and hydraulic parameters.
Through historical rainfall data and/or rainfall monitoring data, the duration of rainfall, rainfall intensity and rainfall type of research can be conveniently predicted, and data support is provided for a subsequent stability analysis module to establish a risk prediction model of a rainfall induced landslide forming mechanism according to mechanical parameters; and the rainfall-induced landslide forming mechanism is closely related to the mechanical parameters of the research area, so that the landslide risk evaluation model established based on the mechanical parameters is more reliable in landslide risk evaluation.
Preferably, the stability analysis module is specifically configured to:
selecting any moment in the rainfall period according to the duration of rainfall, taking the mechanical parameters as random variables, and obtaining a plurality of random variable parameter values of the research area at the selected moment by adopting a random method according to the random variables and groundwater level change data at the selected moment;
calculating to obtain a stability coefficient corresponding to each random variable parameter value of the research area at a selected moment by adopting the limit balance method according to each random variable parameter value;
calculating to obtain the landslide occurrence probability of the research area at a selected moment according to all the stability coefficients, and calculating to obtain a plurality of landslide intensities corresponding to the landslide occurrence probability of the research area at the selected moment according to each stability coefficient;
the formula for calculating the landslide occurrence probability of the research area at the tth moment is specifically as follows:
wherein, PfstProbability of occurrence of landslide at the time t of said study, FstThe stability coefficient of the research area at the t moment is defined, N is the total number of the stability coefficients of the research area at the t moment, M is the stability coefficient of the research area at the t moment and satisfies FstThe number is less than or equal to 1;
the formula for calculating the ith landslide intensity corresponding to the landslide occurrence probability in the study area at the tth moment is specifically as follows:
wherein, Ii(t) is the probability P of occurrence of landslide at the tth moment in the study areafstCorresponding ith landslide intensity, Fi(t) the area of interest satisfies F at the time tstThe residual gliding force between the gliding force corresponding to the ith stability coefficient less than or equal to 1 and the anti-gliding force, g is the gravity acceleration, hi、fi、mi(t) and αiRespectively at the t-th of the study areaSatisfies F at the momentstThe sliding height of the landslide, the dynamic friction coefficient of the landslide, the mass of the sliding body and the slope of the landslide corresponding to the ith stability coefficient of not more than 1.
The stability analysis module can conveniently obtain a stability coefficient with higher accuracy according to the mechanical parameters and the underground water level change data, so as to analyze the stability of the research area at a certain moment, and can accurately judge the landslide occurrence probability at a certain moment and the landslide intensity corresponding to each stability coefficient at the moment one by one on the basis of the stability coefficient, wherein the landslide intensities are the landslide intensity set corresponding to the landslide occurrence probability; by calculating the occurrence probability of landslide and the landslide strengths, a quantitative relation model between the landslide action strength and the deformation instability internal and external environment influence factor parameter sets is conveniently established subsequently, so that the landslide risk is accurately evaluated, and the reliability is high.
Preferably, the risk calculation module is specifically configured to:
selecting the maximum landslide occurrence probability of all landslide occurrence probabilities in the rainfall period, determining the landslide intensity occurrence probability corresponding to the maximum landslide occurrence probability as the maximum landslide intensity occurrence probability, and establishing the risk calculation formula according to the maximum landslide occurrence probability and the maximum landslide intensity occurrence probability;
the risk calculation formula is specifically as follows:
H＝Pfs max×PIpfs max×PT；
wherein H is the above-mentioned risk, PfsmaxIs the maximum probability of occurrence of landslide, PIpfsmaxTo the maximum landslide intensity occurrence probability, PTMeets the requirement of the occurrence probability of the specific rainfall event obtained according to the rainfall data
TrpA rainfall recurrence period in the rainfall data;
and obtaining the risk of the research area according to the risk calculation formula.
The risk calculation module finds out the maximum landslide occurrence probability and the maximum landslide intensity occurrence probability of the maximum landslide occurrence probability according to all the landslide occurrence probabilities and all the landslide intensity occurrence probabilities, adopts a risk calculation formula based on the maximum landslide occurrence probability and the maximum landslide intensity occurrence probability, can comprehensively consider factors such as landslide space probability, time probability and intensity probability, and comprehensively evaluates the danger of landslide disasters on the basis of a landslide formation mechanism, greatly improves the reliability of danger evaluation, is more suitable for the actual situation of landslide formation, can be used for regional danger evaluation of all rainfall type soil landslides, is high in operability and has a good application prospect.
Preferably, as shown in fig. 6, a danger level query module is further included;
and the danger level query module is used for establishing a landslide danger classification standard table, and querying the landslide danger classification standard table according to the danger of the research area to obtain the danger level of the research area.
The landslide hazard classification standard table established by the hazard level query module is convenient for querying the hazard level corresponding to the hazard, so that the hazard level of the landslide hazard can be known more visually and clearly, and the corresponding prevention and control plan can be conveniently and accurately adopted for prevention and control in time.
Preferably, the risk level query module is specifically configured to:
and establishing danger levels corresponding to each preset danger threshold range one by one according to the preset danger threshold ranges of the preset number, and establishing the landslide danger grading standard table according to all the preset danger threshold ranges and all the danger levels.
When the landslide risk classification standard table is established, the risk grade query module is convenient to classify the risk grades of different degrees by selecting the preset risk threshold ranges of the preset number, and further is convenient to accurately query the corresponding risk grade in the landslide risk classification standard table according to the risk calculated by the risk calculation module.
Third embodiment, based on the first embodiment and the second embodiment, the present embodiment further discloses a risk assessment device for regional landslide, which includes a processor, a memory, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, where the computer program is executed to implement the specific steps S1 to S6 shown in fig. 1.
The risk assessment of the regional landslide is realized by the computer program stored in the memory and running on the processor, the dependence on historical data is reduced, a risk prediction model based on a rainfall-induced landslide formation mechanism is established, the quantitative expression of landslide action strength in the regional landslide hazard risk assessment is realized, the reliability of regional landslide hazard risk assessment results is greatly improved, the method can be used for regional risk assessment of all rainfall type soil landslides, and the method is strong in operability and has a good application prospect.
The present embodiment also provides a computer storage medium having at least one instruction stored thereon, where the instruction when executed implements the specific steps of S1-S6.
By executing a computer storage medium containing at least one instruction, the risk assessment of the regional landslide is realized, the dependence on historical data is reduced, a risk prediction model based on a rainfall-induced landslide formation mechanism is established, the quantitative expression of landslide action strength in the regional landslide hazard risk assessment is realized, the reliability of regional landslide hazard risk assessment results is greatly improved, the method can be used for regional risk assessment of all rainfall type soil landslides, and the method is strong in operability and has a good application prospect.
Details of S1 to S6 in this embodiment are not described in detail in the first embodiment and the detailed descriptions in fig. 1 to fig. 4, which are not repeated herein.
The above description is only for the purpose of illustrating the preferred embodiments of the present invention and is not to be construed as limiting the invention, and any modifications, equivalents, improvements and the like that fall within the spirit and principle of the present invention are intended to be included therein.
Claims (10)
1. A risk assessment method for regional landslide, comprising the steps of:
step 1: acquiring regional basic data of a research area, and acquiring mechanical parameters and rainfall data of the research area according to the regional basic data;
step 2: obtaining underground water level change data of the research area at each moment in the whole rainfall period by adopting a regional rainfall infiltration numerical simulation method according to the mechanical parameters and the rainfall data;
and step 3: selecting any moment in the rainfall period, and analyzing the stability of the research area at the selected moment by adopting a limit balance method according to the mechanical parameters and underground water level change data at the selected moment to obtain the landslide occurrence probability of the research area at the selected moment and a plurality of landslide intensities corresponding to the landslide occurrence probability;
and 4, step 4: obtaining a landslide intensity occurrence probability corresponding to the landslide occurrence probability at a selected moment in the research area by adopting a maximum likelihood estimation method according to the landslide occurrence probability at the selected moment and all landslide intensities;
and 5: traversing each moment in the rainfall period, and repeating the steps 3 to 4 to obtain the landslide occurrence probability and the landslide intensity occurrence probability corresponding to the landslide occurrence probability at each moment in the rainfall period;
step 6: and establishing a risk calculation formula of the landslide disaster according to the occurrence probability of all landslides and the occurrence probability of all landslide intensities in the rainfall period, and obtaining the risk of the research area according to the risk calculation formula.
2. The method for assessing the risk of landslide of claim 1, wherein said regional basis data comprises geological environmental data, topographical data, and drilling survey data, further comprising historical rainfall data and/or rainfall monitoring data;
in step 1, the specific step of acquiring the region basic data includes:
acquiring the geological environment data and the historical rainfall data of the research area by using a big data acquisition method;
acquiring the landform shape data of the research area by using a low-altitude photography method;
acquiring said drilling measurement data for said area of interest using a drilling survey method;
and acquiring the rainfall monitoring data of the research area by utilizing rainfall monitoring equipment.
3. The method for assessing risk of landslide of claim 2, wherein in said step 1, obtaining said mechanical parameters and said rainfall data for said research area comprises:
obtaining the rainfall data of the research area according to the historical rainfall data and/or the rainfall monitoring data; wherein the rainfall data comprises duration of rainfall, intensity of rainfall and rainfall type;
obtaining the mechanical parameters of the research area according to the geological environment data, the landform shape data and the drilling measurement data; the mechanical parameters comprise rock-soil body physical mechanical parameters and hydraulic parameters.
4. The method for assessing risk of landslide according to claim 3, wherein said step 3 comprises:
step 31: selecting any moment in the rainfall period according to the duration of rainfall, taking the mechanical parameters as random variables, and obtaining a plurality of random variable parameter values of the research area at the selected moment by adopting a random method according to the random variables and groundwater level change data at the selected moment;
step 32: calculating to obtain a stability coefficient corresponding to each random variable parameter value of the research area at a selected moment by adopting the limit balance method according to each random variable parameter value;
step 33: calculating to obtain the landslide occurrence probability of the research area at a selected moment according to all the stability coefficients, and calculating to obtain a plurality of landslide intensities corresponding to the landslide occurrence probability of the research area at the selected moment according to each stability coefficient;
the formula for calculating the landslide occurrence probability of the research area at the tth moment is specifically as follows:
wherein, PfstProbability of occurrence of landslide at the time t of said study, FstThe stability coefficient of the research area at the t moment is defined, N is the total number of the stability coefficients of the research area at the t moment, M is the stability coefficient of the research area at the t moment and satisfies FstThe number is less than or equal to 1;
the formula for calculating the ith landslide intensity corresponding to the landslide occurrence probability in the study area at the tth moment is specifically as follows:
wherein, Ii(t) is the probability P of occurrence of landslide at the tth moment in the study areafstCorresponding ith landslide intensity, Fi(t) the area of interest satisfies F at the time tstThe residual gliding force between the gliding force corresponding to the ith stability coefficient less than or equal to 1 and the anti-gliding force, g is the gravity acceleration, hi、fi、mi(t) and αiRespectively for the study region satisfying F at the t-th momentstThe sliding height of the landslide, the dynamic friction coefficient of the landslide, the mass of the sliding body and the slope of the landslide corresponding to the ith stability coefficient of not more than 1.
5. The method for assessing risk of landslide according to claim 1, wherein said step 6 comprises:
step 61: selecting the maximum landslide occurrence probability of all landslide occurrence probabilities in the rainfall period, determining the landslide intensity occurrence probability corresponding to the maximum landslide occurrence probability as the maximum landslide intensity occurrence probability, and establishing the risk calculation formula according to the maximum landslide occurrence probability and the maximum landslide intensity occurrence probability;
the risk calculation formula is specifically as follows:
H＝Pfsmax×PIpfsmax×PT；
wherein H is the above-mentioned risk, PfsmaxIs the maximum probability of occurrence of landslide, PIpfsmaxIs the probability of occurrence of the maximum landslide intensity, PTMeets the requirement of the occurrence probability of the specific rainfall event obtained according to the rainfall data
TrpA rainfall recurrence period in the rainfall data;
step 62: and obtaining the risk of the research area according to the risk calculation formula.
6. The risk assessment method of regional landslide according to any one of claims 1 to 5, further comprising the steps of:
and 7: and establishing a landslide risk grading standard table, and inquiring the landslide risk grading standard table according to the risk of the research area to obtain the risk grade of the research area.
7. The method for assessing risk of regional landslide of claim 6, wherein in said step 7, establishing said landslide risk classification criteria table is implemented by:
and establishing danger levels corresponding to each preset danger threshold range one by one according to the preset danger threshold ranges of the preset number, and establishing the landslide danger grading standard table according to all the preset danger threshold ranges and all the danger levels.
8. The system for assessing the risk of regional landslide, which is applied to the method for assessing the risk of regional landslide according to any one of claims 1 to 7, and comprises a data acquisition module, a data processing module, a stability analysis module, a probability estimation module and a risk calculation module;
the data acquisition module is used for acquiring regional basic data of a research area and obtaining mechanical parameters and rainfall data of the research area according to the regional basic data;
the data processing module is used for obtaining underground water level change data of the research area at each moment in the whole rainfall period by adopting a regional rainfall infiltration numerical simulation method according to the mechanical parameters and the rainfall data;
the stability analysis module is used for selecting any moment in the rainfall period, analyzing the stability of the research area at the selected moment by adopting a limit balance method according to the mechanical parameters and the underground water level change data at the selected moment, and obtaining the landslide occurrence probability of the research area at the selected moment and a plurality of landslide intensities corresponding to the landslide occurrence probability;
the probability estimation module is used for obtaining the landslide intensity occurrence probability corresponding to the landslide occurrence probability at a selected moment in the research area by adopting a maximum likelihood estimation method according to the landslide occurrence probability at the selected moment and all the landslide intensities; the rainfall measuring device is also used for obtaining the landslide occurrence probability at each moment in the rainfall period and the landslide intensity occurrence probability corresponding to the landslide occurrence probability;
and the risk calculation module is used for establishing a risk calculation formula of the landslide disaster according to the occurrence probability of all landslides and the occurrence probability of all landslide intensities in the rainfall period and obtaining the risk of the research area according to the risk calculation formula.
9. A risk assessment device for regional landslide, comprising a processor, a memory and a computer program stored in said memory and executable on said processor, said computer program when executed implementing the method steps according to any of claims 1 to 7.
10. A computer storage medium, the computer storage medium comprising: at least one instruction which, when executed, implements the method steps of any one of claims 1 to 7.
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