CN112903008B - Mountain landslide early warning method based on multi-sensing data fusion technology - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention provides a landslide early warning method based on a multi-sensing data fusion technology, which comprises the following steps of: step S1: respectively measuring the effective rainfall, the earth surface displacement and the deep displacement of the monitoring point position, and respectively converting the effective rainfall, the earth surface displacement and the deep displacement into corresponding landslide occurrence probabilities; step S2: converting the three landslide probabilities into an intuitionistic fuzzy set respectively; and step S3: calculating a weight coefficient based on entropy and fuzzy divergence measure to obtain a weighted basic probability assignment function; and step S4: and carrying out iterative processing by using an improved DS evidence theory fusion rule to obtain a fusion result as the probability of the final landslide. The method can reduce false alarm and missing alarm, and improve the effectiveness and reliability of early warning.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical fields of electronic information science and technology, communication technology and disaster prevention and reduction, and particularly relates to a landslide early warning method based on a multi-sensing data fusion technology.
Background
The landslide is used as a common disaster type in geological disasters, scientific and reasonable monitoring is carried out on the landslide, and the threats to the lives and properties of people can be effectively reduced. According to incomplete statistics, economic loss caused by geological disasters reaches billions of yuan every year, and the number of casualties reaches thousands of people, so that the research on the early warning system is of great significance. The landslide occurrence is a process from gradual change to sudden change, and if the landslide characteristic information of a monitoring point can be accurately and timely acquired and the landslide occurrence time and the landslide development trend are effectively judged, the aims of disaster prevention and reduction can be achieved.
The landslide monitoring method comprises a station setting observation method, a seam measuring method, a GPS measuring method, a close-range shooting remote sensing method, a ground inclination method, an image processing method and the like. The station setting observation method is mainly characterized in that some mark points are arranged on the surface of a slope body, and changes of the mark points are observed by using fixed points. The ground slope measuring method is to embed slope measuring pipe in the drilled hole, slide the slope measuring probe in the pipe, and calculate the deviation of the slope measuring probe from the vertical direction through the different gravity effects of the pendulum bob in the probe, and calculate the deformation of the slope. The seam measuring method is mainly characterized in that a seam measuring instrument or device is arranged at a crack of a mountain body, further monitoring is carried out on an area where landslide is generated, the seam measuring method is suitable for the monitored area where local landslide is generated, and common instruments comprise a seam measuring meter, a telescopic meter, a multifunctional frequency tester and the like. The GPS measurement method can record the three-dimensional coordinate change of the observation point on the surface of the landslide body by using the GPS, and analyze and judge the motion rule of the landslide body according to the long-term change of the coordinate points. The remote sensing method is that a certain signal (generally electromagnetic wave and sound wave) is transmitted to the surface of the slope body by using a transmitting device outside the slope body, the signal change is obtained by reflection, and the precursor information of the slope body is reflected by extracting the signal characteristics. The landslide is monitored by the image processing method, a marker is calibrated in a tested landslide area, and the motion trail of the marker is identified by using an image processing technology, so that the motion trail of the landslide body is obtained.
The traditional landslide monitoring method is that a geological survey worker holds professional detection equipment by hand to measure on site, and makes judgment by combining own experience, and the requirements on the aspects of measurement efficiency, accuracy and intellectualization are difficult to meet. The three-dimensional coordinate change of the landslide surface is observed by using a Global Positioning System (GPS), a Remote Sensing (RS) system, a Beidou navigation system and other systems, and the motion rule of the landslide body is analyzed through the coordinate change of the test points, so that the precursor information of the landslide body is remotely obtained, but the aspects are only monitoring the surface deformation of the landslide body, and the internal information of the landslide body cannot be accurately monitored, so that accurate prediction is realized. The method of the drilling inclinometer is to drill holes at specific positions and install a displacement sensor, and can monitor the displacement of any depth in a landslide. The landslide is monitored by an image processing method, a marker is calibrated in a tested landslide area, the motion trail of the marker is identified by using an image processing technology, so that the motion trail of a landslide body is obtained, the change of the surface of the landslide is observed by the method, the landslide can be detected only when the landslide occurs, and good early warning cannot be realized. Meanwhile, a lot of time is consumed in the transmission amount and the processing amount of data, and the effect is not good in high efficiency and high utilization rate.
Because the landslide forming mechanism is complex, and the traditional landslide early warning system usually adopts a single sensor for early warning, and does not comprehensively consider the geographic environment, the weather condition and the monitored physical quantity characteristic data, phenomena such as false alarm, missing report and the like are easy to generate at the moment, or the early warning is not timely, inaccurate and the like. Part of the prediction system adopts the traditional fuzzy set theory, does not consider uncertain factors, and is not accurate enough in describing information; or the mean value method is adopted to process the fuzzy matrix, so that the difference of the influence of important parameters such as rainfall, displacement and the like on the landslide cannot be correctly reflected, and therefore effective and comprehensive judgment cannot be made, and the effectiveness and reliability of the early warning system are influenced.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects and the blank of the prior art, the invention provides a landslide early warning method based on a multi-sensor data fusion technology, and based on the RTK technology, the intuitionistic fuzzy set theory and the multi-sensor fusion technology of a Beidou foundation enhancement system, the invention provides a novel landslide monitoring system which can comprehensively and effectively evaluate or make decisions on each element generating landslide, improve the accuracy and the reliability of the landslide early warning and reduce false alarm and missed alarm, so that the personal and property loss can be reduced to the minimum. The multi-sensor fusion technology is characterized in that internal and external characteristic parameters of landslide monitoring points are collected through different sensors, and information provided by the parameters is effectively fused, so that landslide is comprehensively described, the defect that a single sensor has a blind area is overcome, the uncertainty of information is reduced, and the accuracy of decision making is improved. The intuition fuzzy set considers the membership function, the non-membership function and the hesitation function, and compared with the traditional fuzzy set theory, the intuition fuzzy set theory can express more fuzzy information, has more comprehensive description on events, and is suitable for solving the conditions of inconsistent and uncertain information.
The traditional method only adopts a single sensor for early warning, does not comprehensively consider the geographic environment, the weather condition and the monitored physical quantity characteristic data, and easily generates the phenomena of false alarm, missing report and the like. In order to solve the problem, the system adopts rainfall, RTK surface displacement, a depth displacement sensor and the like for detection, utilizes the RTK to measure the displacement, can reach millimeter-scale precision, utilizes the depth displacement sensor to provide internal deformation information of a monitoring point, and considers other factors causing landslide. On the basis, a method for converting the information obtained by each sensor into a probability and intuitionistic fuzzy set is provided, and an improved evidence theory is utilized to carry out fusion processing, so that a better result is obtained.
The method includes the steps that internal and external landslide characteristic data of monitoring points are accurately obtained through multiple sensors, in order to reflect difference of importance degree of each attribute in an information fusion process, a fusion coefficient in the information fusion is related to influence degree of the parameter on landslide, and a solving method of the fusion coefficient is provided. The principle is shown in fig. 1. 1) Effective rainfall at the monitoring point, the position coordinates of the earth surface and the deep displacement are respectively measured by a rainfall measuring instrument, a GNSS positioning system and a depth displacement transmitter, and the horizontal and vertical displacement of the earth surface and the effective rainfall at the monitoring point are resolved by an RTK technology. The horizontal precision of the displacement measured by RTK can reach 1mm, and the height precision can reach 2.5mm; the characteristic information of the interior of the landslide point can be obtained by utilizing a deep displacement sensor; most landslides occur in association with strong rainfall. 2) And converting the effective rainfall at the monitoring point, the ratio of the horizontal displacement and the vertical displacement and the depth displacement into the probability P (X) of landslide by using each model. 3) Considering that the landslide is a gradual change and a process from quantitative change to qualitative change, a transition section exists between the gradual change and the qualitative change, so that the probability P (X) of the occurrence of the landslide is converted into a basic probability assignment function { U (U) } of an intuitive fuzzy set R (x),V R (x),π R (x) Where U represents a certain probability of occurrence of a landslide, V represents a certain probability of non-occurrence of a landslide, and pi represents ambiguity representing the probability of possible or impossible occurrence of a landslide. 4) And calculating a divergence measure matrix DMM, and calculating a weighting coefficient influencing each parameter of the landslide according to the DMM and the weighting entropy. 5) According to a weighting systemObtaining a weighted basic probability assignment function; 6) And carrying out iterative processing by utilizing an improved DS evidence theory fusion rule to obtain a fusion result, and making a judgment according to the fusion result. 7) Comparing the fusion result with a set threshold value, and if the fusion result is smaller than the threshold value, continuing monitoring; when the threshold value is larger than the threshold value, the situation that a landslide is in a potential crisis is shown, early warning is given, a field image is shot to a mobile terminal (an operator), the result is informed to a disaster prevention and reduction department to make a decision basis, a site is monitored to generate an acousto-optic alarm, and vehicles and personnel of accessories are reminded. Meanwhile, an operator can remotely check the information and the pictures of the monitoring points in real time, so that false alarm and missing alarm can be reduced, and the effectiveness and the reliability of early warning are improved.
The invention specifically adopts the following technical scheme:
a landslide early warning method based on a multi-sensor data fusion technology is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step S1: respectively measuring the effective rainfall, the earth surface displacement and the deep displacement of the monitoring point position, and respectively converting the effective rainfall, the earth surface displacement and the deep displacement into corresponding landslide occurrence probabilities;
step S2: converting the three landslide probabilities into an intuitionistic fuzzy set respectively;
and step S3: calculating a weight coefficient based on entropy and fuzzy divergence measure to obtain a weighted basic probability assignment function;
and step S4: and carrying out iterative processing by using an improved DS evidence theory fusion rule to obtain a fusion result as the probability of the final landslide.
Preferably, in step S1, the effective rainfall, the surface displacement and the deep displacement of the monitoring point position are measured by a rainfall measuring instrument, a GNSS positioning system and a depth displacement transmitter, respectively.
Preferably, step S1 specifically comprises the following steps:
step S31: converting the effective rainfall into the probability of landslide:
the effective rainfall is calculated by the following formula:
A l ＝0.5406×e -3.392×l +7.94×10 -2 e -0.1286×l (2)
where l =0, x 0 Representing 24 hours rainfall on the day, l =1 hour x 1 Representing 24 hours rainfall in the previous day, l =2 hours x 2 Represents x when 24 hours of rainfall, l =3, is present for two days 3 Rainfall 24 hours on behalf of the first three days, A l Represents a weight coefficient per day;
converting the effective rainfall into a probability of producing a landslide using the following equation:
P R (R)＝(1.134×10 -4 ×R 3 -0.02814×R 2 +2.348×R+12.96)/100(3)；
step S32: converting the earth surface displacement into the probability of landslide:
calculating the horizontal displacement and the vertical displacement of the measuring point by utilizing a GNSS positioning system and an RTK technology, and converting the ratio of the horizontal displacement and the vertical displacement into the probability of landslide:
P G (k)＝0.8539e 0.04242k -2.248e -13.73k (4)
wherein k represents a ratio of the horizontal displacement amount to the vertical displacement amount;
step S33: converting the deep displacement amount into a probability of occurrence of a landslide:
wherein d represents the deep displacement amount.
Preferably, in step S2, the conventional fuzzy set theory adopts membership and non-membership to describe the fuzzy concept that the event is not black or white, and it is difficult to describe the ambiguity of the event. Considering that the landslide event is a gradual development process from quantitative change to qualitative change, the invention describes the landslide event by adopting three aspects of membership U, non-membership V and hesitation pi. The membership and non-membership clearly characterize the degree of occurrence (non-occurrence) of a landslide, and the hesitation describes the degree of occurrence of a landslide ambiguity, the larger the hesitation is when the probability of occurrence of a landslide is around 50%. With respect to this characteristic, the probability of occurrence of a landslide into which the effective rainfall, the earth surface displacement amount, and the deep displacement amount are converted is converted into an intuitive fuzzy set m = { U (x), V (x), pi (x) }:
U(x)＝P(x)-0.5π(x) (7)
V(x)＝1-π(x)-U(x) (8)；
the function is characterized in that the hesitation degree is larger when the landslide probability is closer to 50%, and the hesitation degree is smaller when the landslide probability has stronger definition.
Converting the probability of landslide generated by effective rainfall by using formulas (6) to (8) to obtain an intuitive fuzzy set
Wherein subscript R represents effective rainfall;
converting the probability of landslide generated by depth displacement by using formulas (6) to (8) to obtain an intuitionistic fuzzy set
Wherein subscript D represents the depth displacement amount;
converting the probability of landslide generated by the surface displacement ratio by using formulas (6) - (8) to obtain an intuitive fuzzy set
Where subscript G represents the ratio of the amount of horizontal displacement to the amount of vertical displacement of the surface.
Preferably, step S3 specifically includes the following steps:
step S31: determining a weighting coefficient based on the hesitation intuition fuzzy entropy:
wherein n respectively represents three fuzzy set functions of R, D and G;
step S32: constructing a similarity matrix C between sensors in any landslide prediction system: the intuitive fuzzy set of three sensors is known as:
the similarity matrix between them is:
wherein, i and j can respectively take three fuzzy set functions of R, D and G; when i = j, i.e., the intuitive fuzzy sets are the same, the similarity between them is 1; the method is utilized to obtain a similarity matrix C among the 3 sensors R, D and G
Calculating the support Sup for the generation of landslide of the pairs R, D, G, the subscripts representing the different sensors:
normalizing the support of each sensor:
step S33: calculating the weighting coefficient of each sensor intuition fuzzy set to obtain a weighting basic probability assignment function B:
preferably, step S4 specifically includes the following steps:
let the intuitive fuzzy set function be
Performing fusion treatment by using an improved DS evidence theory method, wherein the fusion result is F, and the fusion process is as follows:
then the intuitive fuzzy set of the fusion result F is
Performing 2 times of iterative processing on the weighted fuzzy set probability distribution function by using the fusion algorithm to obtain the final fusion result
Preferably, when the membership function in the fusion result is greater than the threshold value of 0.5, a pre-alarm is given, the related departments for disaster prevention and reduction are informed, and an alarm is given on site.
The invention and the preferable scheme thereof have the following beneficial effects:
1) The RTK technology is used for measuring displacement, the horizontal precision can reach 1mm, and the height precision can reach 2.5mm, so that the accuracy of mountain landslide early warning can be greatly improved.
2) And converting the effective rainfall, the surface displacement, the depth displacement and the crack size into the probability of generating the landslide by utilizing each model, providing a probability conversion method, and converting the probability into a basic probability assignment function of an intuitive fuzzy set.
3) And obtaining the intuitive fuzzy set weighting coefficient of each sensor by using a self-adaptive mode to obtain a weighted basic probability assignment function. And (3) considering the gradual change of landslide, giving out how to convert the probability into an intuitive fuzzy set, and giving out the weighting coefficient of each sensor according to the fuzzy entropy and the divergence measure to obtain a weighted fuzzy intuitive probability distribution function.
4) And fusion processing is carried out by utilizing an improved DS evidence theory, and decision judgment is given, so that the reliability and the effectiveness are improved.
In the prior art, if only a single sensor is adopted for early warning, the geographical environment, the weather condition and the monitored physical quantity characteristic data are not comprehensively considered, and phenomena such as false alarm, missing alarm and the like are easily generated at the moment. In order to solve the problem, the invention adopts rainfall, RTK surface displacement, a depth displacement sensor and the like for detection, utilizes the RTK to measure the displacement, can reach millimeter-scale precision, utilizes the depth displacement sensor to provide internal deformation information of a monitoring point, and considers other factors causing mountain landslide. On the basis, a method for converting information obtained by each sensor into a probabilistic and intuitive fuzzy set is provided, and an improved evidence theory is utilized to perform fusion processing to obtain a better result, so that the reliability, effectiveness and accuracy of landslide early warning can be effectively improved.
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The invention is described in further detail below with reference to the following figures and detailed description:
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the features and advantages of the present invention comprehensible, embodiments accompanied with figures are described in detail as follows:
as shown in fig. 1, based on the overall scheme of the landslide early warning method based on the multi-sensor data fusion technology provided by the present invention, a specific embodiment is provided below to further show and explain the scheme:
step 1: monitoring landslide monitoring points by using a rainfall capacity measuring instrument, a GNSS navigation system and a deep displacement sensor, wherein the effective rainfall capacity at a certain moment is 20mm, and the probability of inferring landslide from the parameters is 49.6% according to a formula (3); the ratio of the horizontal displacement to the vertical displacement is 0.1, and the probability of inferring the landslide from the parameter is 28.8% according to the formula (4); the deep displacement was 200mm, and the probability of estimating a landslide from this parameter was 22.3% as seen from the formula (5).
Step 2: and (4) converting the probability data acquired by the rainfall measuring instrument, the GNSS navigation system and the deep displacement sensor into an intuitive fuzzy probability distribution function according to the formulas (6) to (8).
Intuitive fuzzy set of rainfall measuring instrument R
Intuitive fuzzy set of depth displacement sense D
Intuitive fuzzy set of GNSS positioning system G
And 3, step 3: and (3) substituting the three intuitive fuzzy sense probability distribution functions obtained in the step (2) into formulas (12) to (13) to obtain a weighting coefficient based on the information entropy.
I(m R )＝0.4,I(m D )＝0.28,I(m G )＝0.32
And 4, step 4: and (3) substituting the three intuitive fuzzy perception probability distribution functions obtained in the step (2) into a formula to obtain a weighting coefficient based on fuzzy divergence measurement.
S(m R )＝0.2,S(m D )＝0.29,S(m G )＝0.51
And 5: and (4) processing the weighting coefficients in the step (3) and the step (4) to obtain a final weighting coefficient and obtain a weighted probability distribution function.
Weighting coefficient: omega (m) R )＝0.23,ω(m D )＝0.26,ω(m G )＝0.51
Weighted probability distribution function: m = {0.23,0.6,0.17}
And 6: performing fusion processing by using an improved DS evidence theory method to obtain a fusion result F
F＝{0.06,0.94,0}
And 7: it can be seen from the fusion result that the probability of occurrence of landslide is 6% and the probability of non-occurrence of landslide is 94%, so the system does not give an alarm. The method can give more accurate results than a single sensor.
The present invention is not limited to the above-mentioned preferred embodiments, and any other various types of landslide warning methods based on multi-sensor data fusion technology can be obtained according to the teaching of the present invention, and all equivalent changes and modifications made according to the claims of the present invention shall fall within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (3)
1. A landslide early warning method based on a multi-sensor data fusion technology is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step S1: respectively measuring the effective rainfall, the earth surface displacement and the deep displacement of the monitoring point position, and respectively converting the effective rainfall, the earth surface displacement and the deep displacement into corresponding landslide occurrence probabilities;
step S2: converting the three landslide probabilities into an intuitionistic fuzzy set respectively;
and step S3: calculating a weight coefficient based on entropy and fuzzy divergence measure to obtain a weighted basic probability assignment function;
and step S4: carrying out iterative processing by using an improved DS evidence theory fusion rule to obtain a fusion result as the probability of final landslide;
the step S1 specifically includes the following steps:
step S31: converting the effective rainfall into the probability of landslide:
the effective rainfall is calculated by the following formula:
A l ＝0.5406×e -3.392×l +7.94×10 -2 e -0.1286×l (2)
where l =0, x 0 Representing 24 hours rainfall on the day, l =1 hour x 1 Represents the rainfall 24 hours before the day, x when l =2 2 Representing 24 hours rainfall in the first two days, x when l =3 3 Representing 24 hours rainfall in the first three days, A l Represents a weight coefficient per day;
converting the effective rainfall into a probability of producing a landslide using the following equation:
P R (R)＝(1.134×10 -4 ×R 3 -0.02814×R 2 +2.348×R+12.96)/100(3) (ii) a Wherein subscript R represents effective rainfall;
step S32: converting the earth surface displacement into the probability of landslide:
calculating the horizontal displacement and the vertical displacement of the measuring point by utilizing a GNSS positioning system and an RTK technology, and converting the ratio of the horizontal displacement and the vertical displacement into the probability of landslide:
P G (k)＝0.8539e 0.04242k -2.248e -13.73k (4)
wherein k represents a ratio of the horizontal displacement amount to the vertical displacement amount; subscript G represents the amount of horizontal displacement and the amount of vertical displacement of the surface;
step S33: converting the deep displacement amount into a probability of occurrence of a landslide:
wherein D and D each represent a deep displacement amount;
in step S2, a landslide event is described by using three aspects of membership U, non-membership V, and hesitation pi, and the landslide occurrence probability converted from the effective rainfall, the surface displacement, and the deep displacement is converted into an intuitive fuzzy set m = { U (x), V (x), pi (x) }:
U(x)＝P(x)-0.5π(x) (7)
V(x)＝1-π(x)-U(x) (8)；
converting the probability of landslide generated by effective rainfall by using formulas (6) to (8) to obtain an intuitive fuzzy set
Converting the probability of landslide generated by deep displacement by using formulas (6) to (8) to obtain an intuitive fuzzy set
Converting the probability of generating landslide by using the surface displacement ratio by using the formulas (6) to (8) to obtain an intuitionistic fuzzy set
The step S3 specifically includes the following steps:
step S31: determining a weighting coefficient based on the hesitation intuition fuzzy entropy:
wherein n respectively represents a corner mark to represent fuzzy set functions corresponding to the three parameters of R, D and G;
step S32: constructing a similarity matrix C between sensors in any landslide prediction system: the intuitive fuzzy sets of three sensors are known as:
the similarity matrix between them is:
wherein, i and j can respectively take three fuzzy set functions of R, D and G; when i = j, i.e., the intuitive fuzzy sets are the same, the similarity between them is 1; the method is utilized to obtain a similarity matrix C among fuzzy set functions corresponding to R, D and G parameters
Calculating the support Sup for the generation of landslide of the pairs R, D, G, the subscripts representing the different sensors:
normalizing the support of each sensor:
step S33: calculating the weighting coefficient of each sensor intuition fuzzy set to obtain a weighting basic probability assignment function B:
the step S4 specifically includes the following steps:
let the intuitive fuzzy set function be
Performing fusion treatment by using an improved DS evidence theory method, wherein the fusion result is F, and the fusion process is as follows:
then the intuitive fuzzy set of the fusion result F is
Performing 2 times of iterative processing on the weighted fuzzy set probability distribution function by using the fusion algorithm to obtain the final fusion result
2. The landslide early warning method based on multi-sensing data fusion technology according to claim 1, wherein: in step S1, an effective rainfall, an earth surface displacement amount, and a deep displacement amount of the monitoring point position are measured by a rainfall measuring instrument, a GNSS positioning system, and a depth displacement transmitter, respectively.
3. The landslide early warning method based on multi-sensing data fusion technology according to claim 1, wherein: and generating a pre-alarm when the membership function in the fusion result is greater than 0.5 of the threshold value.
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