CN112561315A - Quantitative evaluation and estimation method for meteorological disasters of flue-cured tobacco - Google Patents
Quantitative evaluation and estimation method for meteorological disasters of flue-cured tobacco Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention belongs to the technical field of meteorological monitoring, and particularly relates to a flue-cured tobacco meteorological disaster quantitative evaluation and estimation method which comprises the following steps of carrying out local improvement and application inspection on WOFOST through a flue-cured tobacco observation test, determining available models and parameter configuration, preparing meteorological data, judging whether the meteorological disaster standard is met according to data combined with meteorological industry standard 'flue-cured tobacco meteorological disaster grade', selecting local live weather or forecast weather if the meteorological condition meets the disaster standard, then respectively driving WOFOST flue-cured tobacco growth models according to two meteorological scenes of perennial average-state meteorological conditions to obtain simulation output results under different meteorological conditions, selecting dry matter of leaves in a maturation stage simulated under different conditions as yield evaluation indexes, quantitatively describing the influence of the meteorological disasters on the yield of flue-cured tobacco by yield fluctuation percentages, and formulating grading indexes of qualitative grade evaluation, the method provided by the invention has high quantification level, and the scientificity of early warning and evaluation of the meteorological disasters is improved.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of meteorological monitoring, and particularly relates to a quantitative evaluation and estimation method for meteorological disasters of flue-cured tobacco.
Background
In the current meteorological services and scientific researches of flue-cured tobacco meteorological disasters, disaster indexes mainly come from manual control experiments, statistical methods and the like, and qualitative grade evaluations such as mild degree and moderate degree are made depending on the disaster indexes for early warning and evaluation of disasters. The methods have low quantification level, are difficult to judge the change of the physiological ecology of the flue-cured tobacco when a meteorological disaster occurs or does not occur, and are also difficult to describe and evaluate the physiological ecology of the flue-cured tobacco in detail under future meteorological conditions. At present, the qualitative estimation and evaluation methods are difficult to meet the requirements of flue-cured tobacco weather service objects, so how to improve the scientificity and quantification level of weather disaster early warning and evaluation is a very urgent problem to be solved.
The wofors model is a dynamic explanatory model developed by the agriculture university of Wageningen, the netherlands, and the world grain research Center (CWFS) to simulate the growth of annual crops under specific soil and climate conditions. The model can simulate crop growth at three levels of potential growth conditions, water limitation, and nutrient limitation. Potential growth conditions refer to ensuring that nutrient elements and moisture are optimally supplied, and crop yield is determined only by radiation, temperature and crop characteristics; moisture limiting production conditions, i.e. assuming that the supply of nutrient elements is still optimal, but taking into account the effect of soil available moisture on evaporation and crop yield; the nutrient limitation condition considers the influence of N, P, K three elements on the crop yield.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention mainly aims to provide a flue-cured tobacco meteorological disaster quantitative evaluation and estimation method, so as to meet the requirements of flue-cured tobacco meteorological service objects and improve the scientificity and the quantification level of meteorological disaster early warning and evaluation.
In order to achieve the above purpose, the invention provides the following technical scheme:
a flue-cured tobacco meteorological disaster quantitative evaluation and estimation method comprises the following steps:
s1: carrying out localized improvement and application inspection on WOFOST through a flue-cured tobacco observation test to determine an available model and parameter configuration;
s2: preparing meteorological data, and judging whether the meteorological data meet a disaster standard according to the data and a meteorological industry standard 'flue-cured tobacco meteorological disaster grade';
s3: if the meteorological conditions reach the disaster standard, selecting local live weather or forecast weather, and then respectively driving a WOFOST flue-cured tobacco growth model under two meteorological conditions of a multi-year average state to obtain results of simulation output flue-cured tobacco development period, leaf area index, quality of dry matter and the like under different meteorological conditions;
s4: selecting the dry matter weight of the leaves in the maturation stage simulated under different conditions as a yield evaluation index, quantitatively describing the influence of the meteorological disasters on the yield of the flue-cured tobaccos by using the yield fluctuation percentage, and formulating a grading index for qualitative grade evaluation.
Further, in the step S3, when performing quantitative evaluation on flue-cured tobacco meteorological disasters, the evaluation is divided into evaluation in disaster and evaluation after disaster, and the evaluation after disaster is evaluation on disasters in historical years, so that all meteorological data required by the WOFOST flue-cured tobacco growth model use live observation data; and in disaster assessment, the assessment date is still in the development period of the flue-cured tobacco, and the meteorological data after the assessment date is replaced by the average value for many years.
Further, in the step S3, when flue-cured tobacco meteorological disasters are quantitatively estimated, the weather data is predicted to be data within 7-15 days in the future, and the main applicable disasters are low temperature or high temperature.
Further, the step S4 specifically includes the following steps:
s4-1: the yield fluctuation rate is calculated as follows:
in the formula, DiPercent (%) yield fluctuation in i years, YiIs the simulated yield (kg/ha) driven by the actual meteorological conditions in i years,
replacing and driving the yield (kg/ha) of the model simulation with a multi-year mean meteorological condition for the duration of the disaster;
s4-2: the qualitative rating scale based on percent yield fluctuation was rated as follows: i DiIf the absolute value is less than 3 percent, no disaster exists; d is more than or equal to 3%iMild disasters occur when the absolute value is less than 10 percent; d is more than or equal to 10%iModerate disasters occur when the absolute value is less than 15 percent; i DiAnd when the absolute value is more than or equal to 15 percent, the disaster is severe.
The invention also provides a quantitative evaluation method for drought disasters of flue-cured tobacco, which comprises the following steps:
s1, carrying out localization on the WOFOST crop model, and selecting the normal year of the meteorological annual view to carry out parameter adjustment on the model under the potential condition;
s2, testing the sensitivity of the WOFOST model to drought in a water limitation mode by using meteorological data of a typical drought year;
s3, according to the inspection condition, further adjusting parameters of the model to determine a localized WOFOST crop model;
s4, driving a WOFOST crop model under a water limiting mode and a potential production model respectively, simulating a historical typical drought year and outputting results such as a flue-cured tobacco development period, a leaf area index, a quality of dry matter and the like;
s5: and (3) quantitatively describing the influence of drought disasters on the yield of the flue-cured tobacco by using the dry matter weight of the leaves in the maturation stage simulated under the two conditions as a yield evaluation index by using the yield fluctuation percentage, and establishing a grading index for qualitative grade evaluation.
Further, the flue-cured tobacco drought disaster assessment method comprises the following steps in step S5:
s5-1: the yield fluctuation rate is calculated as follows:
in the formula, DiPercent (%) yield fluctuation in i years, YiThe yield (kg/ha) was simulated for the i-year potential production model,
yield (kg/ha) for the water limit model simulation.
S5-2: the qualitative rating scale based on percent yield fluctuation was rated as follows: diIf the rate is less than 20%, the disaster is not caused; d is more than or equal to 20 percentiMild drought occurs when the drought is less than 30 percent; d is more than or equal to 30 percentiModerate drought occurs when the drought is less than 40 percent; diSevere drought occurs when the drought is more than or equal to 40 percent.
The invention has the following beneficial effects:
the method provided by the invention has high quantification level, can judge the change of the physiological ecology of the flue-cured tobacco when a meteorological disaster occurs or does not occur, can also describe and evaluate the physiological ecology of the flue-cured tobacco in detail under future meteorological conditions, and improves the scientificity and the quantification level of early warning and evaluation of the meteorological disaster.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a flue-cured tobacco meteorological disaster quantitative evaluation technique;
FIG. 2 is a flow chart of a flue-cured tobacco meteorological disaster quantitative estimation technique;
FIG. 3 is a flow chart of a flue-cured tobacco drought disaster impact assessment technique based on the WOFOST crop model;
FIG. 4 is a simulation diagram of the 2010 flue-cured tobacco growth in Yuxi tobacco district;
in the fig. 5 xi smoke area 2016, simulation estimation of high-temperature heat damage process from 5 months, 11 days to 16 days is carried out.
Detailed Description
The present invention is further described with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific examples, when the WOFOST model is used, the WOFOST model parameters need to be locally configured, and the configuration refers to the study on the applicability of the WOFOST model such as huxon to the Yunnan flue-cured tobacco and the study on the applicability of the WOFOST model such as wucherish in north china, and the WOFOST model parameters mainly include crop parameters and soil parameters. One of the crop parameters mainly comprises effective heat accumulation and photoperiod influencing factors required by different development stages; the other one mainly comprises photosynthetic rate, respiration rate, photosynthetic product conversion coefficient, dry matter distribution coefficient, specific leaf area, leaf senescence index and the like. The soil parameters mainly comprise physical parameters and initial conditions related to the characteristics of soil, such as wilting humidity, field water capacity, saturated water content, saturated hydraulic conductivity, infiltration rate, initial soil water content and the like, and the parameters can be obtained through a local agricultural meteorological test station.
Embodiment 2 flue-cured tobacco meteorological disaster assessment method
(I) technical process
Flue-cured tobacco meteorological disaster assessment is to assume that a flue-cured tobacco model can accurately simulate the whole growth process of flue-cured tobacco, respectively simulate the changes of the development period, the leaf area, the dry matter and the yield of the flue-cured tobacco under the disaster scene and the normal climate scene, and assess the flue-cured tobacco meteorological disaster based on assessment indexes, wherein the technical process is shown in figure 1.
The quantitative evaluation process of the flue-cured tobacco meteorological disasters mainly comprises the processes of data preparation, evaluation condition judgment, model simulation, result comparison, disaster grade judgment and the like. The crop model, the disaster index and the evaluation standard are the core of the whole evaluation process. Carrying out crop growth simulation based on day-by-day real-time meteorological data of an evaluation year by utilizing a WOFOST flue-cured tobacco growth model, and taking the simulated yield driven by real-time meteorological conditions as the actual yield level of the evaluation year; replacing the day-to-day meteorological conditions of the annual disaster process with the average day-to-day meteorological conditions of many years, keeping the meteorological conditions input into the model in other periods unchanged, and taking the simulated yield driven by the model as the yield level under the disaster-free condition; the condition of crop yield fluctuation caused by disasters is determined by comparing the two.
The evaluation of the flue-cured tobacco meteorological disasters comprises two evaluation modes, namely evaluation in disaster and evaluation after disaster, and because the influence of the flue-cured tobacco meteorological disasters in the later period does not disappear immediately but is a continuous process, the evaluation is carried out by uniformly using simulation results of the flue-cured tobacco in the mature harvest period in two simulation scenes. If the disaster evaluation is carried out in historical years, all the weather data required by the model use live observation data, and if the evaluation carrying date is in the development period, the weather data after the evaluation date in the two scenes are replaced by the average value of multiple years.
(II) evaluation criteria
In order to quantitatively describe the influence of the meteorological disaster on the growth process of the flue-cured tobacco, the yield of the flue-cured tobacco (the dry matter weight of leaves in the mature period) is selected as an evaluation index, the influence of the meteorological disaster on the yield of the flue-cured tobacco is quantitatively described by using the yield fluctuation percentage, and a grading index for qualitative grade evaluation is formulated (table 1). The yield fluctuation rate is calculated as follows:
in the formula, DiPercent (%) yield fluctuation in i years, YiIs the simulated yield (kg/ha) driven by the actual meteorological conditions in i years,
the annual average meteorological conditions were used to replace and drive the yield (kg/ha) of the model simulation for the duration of the disaster.
TABLE 1 weather disaster evaluation grade index for flue-cured tobacco
| Grade | Is free of | Light and lightweight | In | Heavy load |
| |Di| | |Di|＜3％ | 3％≤|Di|＜10％ | 10％≤|Di|＜15％ | |Di|≥15％ |
(III) specific application example for high-temperature weather
During the period from 17 days at 5 months to 4 days at 6 months in 2014 in Yuxi tobacco region, except for 19 days at 5 months and 29 days, the highest temperature in the rest periods is more than or equal to 30 ℃, the highest temperature in the process is 7 days and exceeds 32 ℃, the extreme highest temperature in the process is 33.5 ℃ for 4 days at 6 months, the accumulated number of days at more than 30 ℃ is 18 days, the heat accumulated temperature is 27.2 ℃, and the development period of the flue-cured tobacco in the tobacco region during the high temperature period is from survival to cluster period.
When the process is finished, the leaf weight, the total weight and the leaf area index are increased to a certain extent compared with the assumed situation, and under the influence of a high-temperature process, the bud stage, the mature period of the foot leaves and the mature period of the waist leaves are all advanced by 5 days compared with the assumed situation, and the total development days are shortened by 5 days. At the end of the development of the flue-cured tobacco, the leaf weight is reduced by 17.5 percent, the total weight is reduced by 18.8 percent and the leaf area index is reduced by 18.5 percent compared with the assumed situation. Therefore, the high-temperature process is comprehensively evaluated to be the grade of severe high-temperature disasters.
Embodiment 2 flue-cured tobacco meteorological disaster estimation method
Flue-cured tobacco meteorological disaster estimation is mainly based on rolling weather forecast data, disastrous weather which possibly appears in the future is embedded into a WOFOST crop model to be simulated by combining with meteorological disaster indexes, and is compared with a model simulation result driven by the climate average value in the time period, and disaster estimation is carried out by combining with disaster evaluation indexes.
(A) estimation method
The technical method for flue-cured tobacco meteorological disaster estimation is similar to disaster assessment, and mainly aims to simulate the growth conditions of the flue-cured tobacco under the disaster situation predicted in the future period and the average climate situation, compare the changes of indexes such as dry matters and leaf areas of the flue-cured tobacco under the two situations, and formulate an assessment index to assess the low-temperature and high-temperature disasters of the flue-cured tobacco. In actual operation, due to the fact that influence of the disaster process has certain hysteresis and is a continuous influence process, in the simulation of the two scenes, data after the disaster process are uniformly replaced by the multi-year average value of the evaluation area, and influence and grade of the disaster are evaluated through change of leaf weight in the tobacco harvesting period.
The flue-cured tobacco meteorological disaster prediction is mainly suitable for disaster types with very close meteorological element relations, such as low temperature, high temperature and the like, due to the fact that overcast and rainy weather are too dependent on the prediction value of sunshine hours, the existing prediction products do not have sunshine prediction data, although the sunshine and radiation values in the future time period can be predicted through a partial empirical calculation formula, due to the uncertainty of prediction and multiple errors and superposition effects of calculation, the uncertainty and reliability of model simulation results are further increased. The evaluation of weather and drought is that the drought process can be simulated and evaluated only by needing long-time-scale prediction data, and the current prediction data about ten days cannot meet the requirements, so that the flue-cured tobacco weather disaster prediction cannot accurately predict the flue-cured tobacco overcast and rainy and dim and drought disasters at present.
(II) estimation standard
Evaluation of tobacco leaf weight yield fluctuation ratio for reference tobacco weather disaster estimation (D)i) And (4) grading the indexes to estimate the flue-cured tobacco meteorological disasters for the indexes (the calculation method is shown in the preamble).
TABLE 2 weather disaster evaluation grade index for flue-cured tobacco
| Grade | Is free of | Light and lightweight | In | Heavy load |
| |Di| | |Di|＜3％ | 3％≤|Di|＜10％ | 10％≤|Di|＜15％ | |Di|≥15％ |
(III) specific prediction cases for drought and high temperature
1. Drought
Because the drought disaster is a long-term water shortage accumulation effect, the short-term weather influence is limited, in addition, weather forecast does not have weather element forecast for 10 days or more, and the accuracy rate and uncertainty of the long-term weather forecast are high, the quantitative estimation of the drought disaster is not carried out in the middle of the business, but a technical thought is provided.
2. High temperature
Taking the estimation of high-temperature disasters in Yuxi smoke area of 2016 as an example, according to the forecast of qi of 5-9-days-future 7 days of 2016, the maximum temperature of 6-days continuous from 11-days-16-days of 5-months will exceed 30 ℃, and is 31.9 ℃, 33.3 ℃, 31.5 ℃, 31.1 ℃, 31.4 ℃ and 31.7 ℃ respectively, and the heat accumulated temperature of the whole heat damage process is 10.9 ℃, and the disaster process can be evaluated as a mild high-temperature heat damage process according to the evaluation standard in the industry standard.
According to the simulation (see fig. 5), in the predicted disaster situation, the growth period simulated by the wobest crop model was shortened by 1 day, the overground part dry matter mass was reduced by 7.5%, the leaf weight was reduced by 7.9%, and the leaf area index was reduced by 8.4%. And according to the evaluation index, evaluating the possible disaster process as a mild high-temperature thermal damage grade.
Example 3 flue-cured tobacco drought disaster assessment method
When the flue-cured tobacco is stressed by drought, a series of physiological and biochemical phenomena occur, such as leaf rolling, leaf withering, reduced transpiration, reduced CO2 assimilation and the like, and finally, the biomass and the yield are reduced. The WOFOST crop model can simulate the influence of drought stress on the growth and development of flue-cured tobacco, including physiological processes such as growth period delay and photosynthetic production rate reduction caused by the drought stress, and finally shows the reduction of biomass and yield. Yield outputs in both potential production and water limitation modes are provided in the wobest model, and differences in yield can be used to simulate the effects of drought disasters.
The influence of drought disasters on the yield of the flue-cured tobacco is quantitatively described by using the yield fluctuation percentage of model simulation under two situations of potential production and water limitation, and grading indexes of qualitative grade evaluation are formulated (table 3). The yield fluctuation rate is calculated as follows:
in the formula, DiPercent (%) yield fluctuation in i years, YiThe yield (kg/ha) was simulated for the i-year potential production model,
yield (kg/ha) for the water limit model simulation.
TABLE 3 weather disaster evaluation grade index for flue-cured tobacco
| Grade | Is free of | Light and lightweight | In | Heavy load |
| Di | Di＜20％ | 20％≤Di＜30％ | 30％≤Di＜40％ | Di≥40％ |
| Precipitation pitch (R)d) | Rd≥-10％ | -20％≤Rd＜-10％ | -30％≤Rd＜-20％ | Rd＜-30％ |
(III) evaluation of examples
In the Yuxi tobacco district, the precipitation of flue-cured tobacco in field period from 2010 to 2016 is less than that of the flue-cured tobacco in field period from 2010 to 2016, the precipitation of the flue-cured tobacco in field period from 2010 to 2013 is less than 30%, wherein the precipitation of the flue-cured tobacco in field period from 2010 to 2013 is less than 39%. The actual measurement yield of the Yuxi flue-cured tobacco observation point in 2010 is 2338kg/ha, which is 22% less than the average yield in the last decade and 40% less than the average yield in the high-yield year 2014. According to the crop model simulation (fig. 4), the leaf weight simulation value of potential production in the mature harvest period of flue-cured tobacco in Yuxi tobacco district in 2010 is 3210kg/ha, and the leaf weight under the water limitation is only 1274kg/ha, which is reduced by 60.3%. And according to the evaluation index, evaluating the drought disaster of the annual flue-cured tobacco as the severe drought grade.
In order to further check the availability of the evaluation method and indexes, the drought disasters of flue-cured tobacco in the Zhaotong tobacco district and Yuxi tobacco district from 2010 to 2016 are simulated and evaluated, and the evaluation results are shown in Table 4.
TABLE 4 evaluation of drought impact in Zhaotong Yuxi tobacco zone during the whole growth period
Through comparative analysis, the disaster grade judged based on the yield fluctuation rate after the model simulation is performed on the wofost is basically consistent with the total judgment result of the precipitation range percentage index. In the years with obvious excessive rainfall in the field period of flue-cured tobacco, the evaluation results based on the rainfall interval flat percentage index and the yield fluctuation rate are quite consistent, and the tobacco leaves are not drought, such as 2013 to 2016 in a Zhaotong tobacco zone. When the precipitation is obviously less, the judgment results of the two indexes in most years are consistent, and the judgment grade of the two indexes in part years, such as 2010, based on the yield fluctuation rate is lower than the judgment grade of the precipitation distance flat percentage index by one grade. When the rainfall in the tobacco field period is slightly less, the difference of the results judged by the two indexes is larger, generally, the rainfall in each development period of the tobacco is unevenly distributed, although the total amount is close to the year, part of the development period is obviously slightly less, especially, the transplanting root extending period and the vigorous growth period are the periods when the water requirement of the tobacco is most vigorous, the influence of drought on the yield of the tobacco is larger, the influence caused by the shortage of the rainfall in the development period can be objectively reflected on the basis of the evaluation result of the yield fluctuation rate on the whole, but the simulation result of individual year has certain deviation. For example, in 2015, the rainfall in the tobacco transplanting rooting period and the vigorous growing period of Yuxi tobacco areas is reduced by more than 25%, and the accumulated rainfall in the field period is reduced by 13.2%, but the evaluation result based on the yield fluctuation rate after model simulation is no drought, namely, the model does not well reflect the influence of the water-deficient process on the production of the flue-cured tobacco.
Claims (6)
1. A flue-cured tobacco meteorological disaster quantitative evaluation and estimation method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1: carrying out localized improvement and application inspection on WOFOST through a flue-cured tobacco observation test to determine an available model and parameter configuration;
s2: preparing meteorological data, and judging whether the meteorological data meet a disaster standard according to the data and a meteorological industry standard 'flue-cured tobacco meteorological disaster grade';
s3: if the meteorological conditions reach the disaster standard, selecting local live weather or forecast weather, and then respectively driving a WOFOST flue-cured tobacco growth model under two meteorological conditions of a multi-year average state to obtain results of simulation output flue-cured tobacco development period, leaf area index, quality of dry matter and the like under different meteorological conditions;
s4: selecting the dry matter weight of the leaves in the maturation stage simulated under different conditions as a yield evaluation index, quantitatively describing the influence of the meteorological disasters on the yield of the flue-cured tobaccos by using the yield fluctuation percentage, and formulating a grading index for qualitative grade evaluation.
2. The flue-cured tobacco meteorological disaster quantitative evaluation and estimation method according to claim 1, characterized in that in the step S3, when flue-cured tobacco meteorological disaster quantitative evaluation is performed, the evaluation is divided into in-disaster evaluation and post-disaster evaluation, and the post-disaster evaluation is disaster evaluation for historical years, so that all meteorological data required by the WOFOST flue-cured tobacco growth model use live observation data; and in disaster assessment, the assessment date is still in the development period of the flue-cured tobacco, and the meteorological data after the assessment date is replaced by the average value for many years.
3. The method for quantitatively evaluating and predicting flue-cured tobacco meteorological disasters according to claim 1, wherein in the step S3, when the flue-cured tobacco meteorological disasters are quantitatively predicted, the predicted weather data are data within 7-15 days in the future, and the main applicable disasters are low temperature or high temperature.
4. The method for quantitatively evaluating and estimating weather disasters of flue-cured tobaccos according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein the step S4 specifically comprises the following steps:
s4-1: the yield fluctuation rate is calculated as follows:
in the formula, DiPercent (%) yield fluctuation in i years, YiIs the simulated yield (kg/ha) driven by the actual meteorological conditions in i years,
replacing and driving the yield (kg/ha) of the model simulation with a multi-year mean meteorological condition for the duration of the disaster;
s4-2: the qualitative rating scale based on percent yield fluctuation was rated as follows: i DiIf the absolute value is less than 3 percent, no disaster exists; d is more than or equal to 3%iMild disasters occur when the absolute value is less than 10 percent; d is more than or equal to 10%iModerate disasters occur when the absolute value is less than 15 percent;
|Diand when the absolute value is more than or equal to 15 percent, the disaster is severe.
5. A quantitative evaluation method for drought disasters of flue-cured tobacco is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1, carrying out localization on the WOFOST crop model, and selecting the normal year of the meteorological annual view to carry out parameter adjustment on the model under the potential condition;
s2, testing the sensitivity of the WOFOST model to drought in a water limitation mode by using meteorological data of a typical drought year;
s3, according to the inspection condition, further adjusting parameters of the model to determine a localized WOFOST crop model;
s4, driving a WOFOST crop model under a water limiting mode and a potential production model respectively, simulating a historical typical drought year and outputting results such as a flue-cured tobacco development period, a leaf area index, a quality of dry matter and the like;
s5: and (3) quantitatively describing the influence of drought disasters on the yield of the flue-cured tobacco by using the dry matter weight of the leaves in the maturation stage simulated under the two conditions as a yield evaluation index by using the yield fluctuation percentage, and establishing a grading index for qualitative grade evaluation.
6. The flue-cured tobacco drought disaster assessment method according to claim 5, wherein the step S5 specifically comprises the following steps:
s5-1: the yield fluctuation rate is calculated as follows:
in the formula, DiPercent (%) yield fluctuation in i years, YiThe yield (kg/ha) was simulated for the i-year potential production model,
yield (kg/ha) for the water limit model simulation.
S5-2: the qualitative rating scale based on percent yield fluctuation was rated as follows: diIf the rate is less than 20%, the disaster is not caused; d is more than or equal to 20 percentiMild drought occurs when the drought is less than 30 percent; d is more than or equal to 30 percentiModerate drought occurs when the drought is less than 40 percent; diSevere drought occurs when the drought is more than or equal to 40 percent.
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