CN110956322B - Summer maize flowering phase high-temperature disaster risk prediction method under climate warming trend - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a summer maize flowering phase high-temperature disaster risk prediction method under a climate warming trend, and aims to solve the technical problem that a future summer maize flowering phase high-temperature disaster risk and evolution method cannot be accurately and precisely estimated in the prior art. The method calculates the date of the start and stop of the flowering period to be predicted from the RCP climate lattice point data in the longitude and latitude range of the administrative region of the test land; the Gao Wenji harmful value is represented by a high-temperature accumulated value of which the highest air temperature in the flowering phase is more than or equal to 32 ℃ or more than or equal to 35 ℃; calculating the occurrence frequency of high-temperature disastersP i Comprehensive index of high-temperature risk in flowering phaseIThreshold for high temperature risk classification in flowering phaseI a The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the According toI a The size is applied to the RCP scene to carry out light, medium and heavy risk classification. The invention can accurately estimate the risk and performance of the future summer maize flowering phase high-temperature disasterThe method has important significance in adjusting the corn production system and stress-resistant cultivation and adapting to climate change.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of agricultural planting, in particular to a summer maize flowering phase high-temperature disaster risk prediction method under a climate warming trend.
Background
Corn is the first large grain crop in China, has important positions in national economy development, and Henan is the great province of summer corn planting, and the sowing area is 331.7 ten thousand hectares, and the total yield is 1752.1 ten thousand tons. As corn yield levels increase, the determination of ear grain number on yield becomes increasingly pronounced.
Pollen viability is one of the important reasons for influencing the grain number of the ears, and high temperature is an important reason for causing the hypoviability of corn pollen although the heat resistance and the pollen scattering property of corn tassel have genotype differences. Abnormal high temperature affects the structure and function of pollen, resulting in reduced quantity and activity of pollen or no meeting of flowering phase, and finally resulting in reduced seed abortion and fruiting rate and reduced yield. For example, chen Chaohui et al have found that corn is exposed to an extremely high temperature of 38 ℃ for 3 days, and that the pollen scattering is stopped, the pollination rate is inversely related to the temperature, and the higher the temperature, the lower the pollination rate. Zhao Longfei and other researches show that the high-temperature treatment of the dredging sheet 20 in the flowering period can reduce the grain number of the corn by 20.4-22.0% and the grain weight by 8.8-10.5%. The suitable temperature of the period from the male extraction to the silking of the corn is 25-28 ℃, but the period from the male extraction and the silking of the summer corn in Henan area is generally in a high-temperature period from 7 late to 8 early months, especially in the global warming large background, the period from the flowering of the summer corn is often subjected to extreme weather such as high-temperature drought, the crop yield is rapidly reduced, and the current production still lacks effective defense or relief measures, so that the safe production of the corn is seriously threatened. The high temperature in the flowering phase has become one of the main meteorological disasters for the summer corn growth in this area.
Extensive and intensive researches are carried out aiming at the hazard characteristics and influence mechanisms of the high temperature of summer corns in the flowering phase, and as the Reed and the like, according to the construction of the comprehensive climate index of the high temperature injury of the summer corns in Huaibei plain, wang Haimei researches show that the high temperature stress of more than 32 ℃ affects the physiological index and the yield structure of the corns in the river cover irrigation area. The research on rice is more in terms of high-temperature risk, and corn is relatively less, the probability and the spatial distribution of the high-temperature damage risk of the corn in the flowering phase of each county region of Huang-Huai-Hai are calculated by using a daily high-temperature duration probability distribution function, such as Liu Zhe, and the high-temperature risk of the summer corn in 2011-2014 yellow-Huai-Hai is analyzed by using MODIS data; yin Xiaogang and the like analyze the influence of high temperature in northeast area on corn production according to accumulated temperature of more than or equal to 30 ℃ and daily number.
The current climate warming is not contentious, and the future climate warming can be continuous, so that the summer corns resist high temperature heat injury, and the situation of ensuring safe production is more serious. In climate change effect studies, current studies indicate that the effect of temperature rise on crop production is very pronounced, but most of them are the effect of average temperature on crop growth and development and yield. Along with the continuous and deep research of high-temperature disasters, the difference of the influence of different high-temperature durations on the activity and yield of corn pollen is also remarkable, and more refined meteorological data requirements are provided for the evaluation of the influence of the high-temperature disasters.
However, there is no method for scientifically and accurately predicting the risk and evolution of the summer maize flowering phase high-temperature disaster under the climate warming trend.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to solve the technical problem of providing a summer maize flowering phase high-temperature disaster risk prediction method under the climate warming trend, so as to solve the technical problem that a method for scientifically and accurately predicting the future summer maize flowering phase high-temperature disaster risk and evolution is not available in the prior art.
In order to solve the technical problems, the invention adopts the following technical scheme:
the design of the summer maize flowering phase high-temperature disaster risk prediction method under the climate warming trend comprises the following steps:
(1) Determining the date and time constant annual value of the flowering phase of the summer maize to be predicted, mapping the date and time constant annual value of the flowering phase to RCP climate lattice point data in the longitude and latitude range of the administrative region of the summer maize to be predicted, and forming a corresponding prediction database;
(2) Respectively calculating the high Wen Ji harm value TH corresponding to the air temperature of more than or equal to 32 ℃ and more than or equal to 35 ℃ in the summer maize flowering period according to the following formula by using the highest air temperature and the flowering period date in the prediction database 32 and TH35 ：
wherein ,THi Represents a high Wen Ji hazard value, T, at a temperature of at least 32 ℃ or at least 35 DEG C hi T is the current accumulation and damage value max For highest daily temperature, T 0 The critical value of the highest temperature in the flowering phase of summer corns is 32 ℃ or 35 ℃; n is the highest air temperature of summer corn in the flowering phase of more than or equal to 32 DEG COr the number of days with the highest air temperature of more than or equal to 35 ℃;
(3) Respectively statistically calculating the frequency P of occurrence of high-temperature disasters with the highest air temperature of more than or equal to 32 ℃ and the highest air temperature of more than or equal to 35 ℃ in the local history corresponding to the summer corn flowering period 32 and P35 ：
wherein ,ni Is divided into a local area with the temperature of not less than 32 ℃ or not less than 35 ℃ and the height of Wen Rishu and N in the summer maize flowering period in history i Total summer corn flowering day;
(4) Determining a summer maize flowering phase high temperature risk comprehensive index I according to the following steps:
I＝ω 1 P 32 ×TH 32 +ω 2 P 35 ×TH 35 -type (IV)
wherein ,ω1 and ω2 Respectively the weight coefficients of the high temperature influences of different degrees;
(5) Dividing the obtained high temperature risk composite index I with a known or given risk class by a threshold I a Belonging to the risk level thereof.
Preferably, in the step (1), the usual year value of the date of onset and stop of the flowering is a years history average of date of onset and end of the flowering.
Preferably, the flowering period starting date is a male withdrawal prevalent period, and the flowering period ending date is 7d later than the male withdrawal prevalent period.
Preferably, in the step (1), the RCP climate lattice point data uses future climate change data in RCP4.5 or RCP8.5 emission scenarios.
Preferably, in the step (4), the fertilization maturing loss rate a after the high temperature treatment of not less than 32 ℃ and not less than 35 ℃ for 1 hour is calculated by experimental statistics 1 and a2 Then calculate omega according to the following formula 1 and ω2 ：
Preferably, in the step (5), the highest comprehensive index I in the whole region in the RCP rf scene to be measured is obtained according to the steps (2) to (4) max And determining threshold I of summer maize flowering phase high-temperature risk classification according to the specification a ：
I a ＝a i ×I max -type (V)
wherein ,Imax For the highest overall index of the whole region to be predicted, a i Is a grading coefficient; wherein, the grading coefficient of the light and medium risk demarcation points is 0.4, and the grading coefficient of the medium and heavy risk demarcation points is 0.7.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the main beneficial technical effects that:
according to the invention, by predicting the risk of the summer maize flowering phase high-temperature disaster under the future climate warming background, the space-time variation characteristics of the summer maize flowering phase high-temperature disaster under the climate warming condition can be known and mastered, the risk and evolution of the future summer maize flowering phase high-temperature disaster can be accurately estimated, and the method has important guiding significance for adjusting a maize production system and stress-tolerant cultivation and adapting to climate change.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a view of RCP scenario data of Henan province;
FIG. 2 is a diagram of perennial values of the male extraction period of Henan province summer maize;
FIG. 3 is a graph showing the change of the flowering period of Henan province summer maize by Wen Rishu under different RCP scenarios;
FIG. 4 is a graph showing the distribution of the number of days and occurrence frequency of high temperature in flowering phase of Henan province and summer maize under different RCP scenarios;
FIG. 5 is a graph of the Wen Ji pest change of the flowering period of Henan province summer maize under different RCP scenarios;
FIG. 6 is a spatial distribution diagram of the Wen Ji pest variation of the flowering period of Henan province summer maize under different RCP scenarios;
FIG. 7 is a graph showing the high-temperature comprehensive risk distribution of flowering phase of Henan province summer maize under different RCP scenarios;
FIG. 8 is one of the high temperature disaster charts of summer corns in the SiPing county of the standing-marry city in Henan province in 2017;
FIG. 9 is a second diagram of a high temperature disaster in summer maize in Xiping county, the city of standing-Massa Medicata Fermentata in Henan, 2017.
Detailed Description
The following examples are given to illustrate the invention in detail, but are not intended to limit the scope of the invention in any way.
For future climate change 2014, the inter-government expert committee for climate change (IPCC) fifth evaluation report (AR 5) was set based on atmospheric radiation intensity, 4 representative concentration path scenario data RCPs data were proposed, and policy factors were first incorporated, including RCP 2.6, RCP4.5, RCP 6, RCP8.5 data products.
In the following examples, RCP rf is current scene data, and the simulation time series are 1951 to 2005; RCP4.5 is a greenhouse gas emission and economic balance development mode, and the simulation time sequence is 2006-2050 years; RCP8.5 is the highest emission path of greenhouse gases, and the simulation time sequence is 2006-2050; the weather statistical method is a conventional method unless otherwise specified.
Data processing was performed using Microsoft Excel and the Kriging interpolation method was selected using buffer software for mapping.
Examples: risk prediction for high-temperature disasters in flowering phase of Henan province summer corn in climate warming trend
1. Test site and test data
(1) Selection of test site and climate scene data
The method is characterized in that a main planting area (a Xinyang area for planting rice is removed) of the corn in Henan province is taken as an implementation object, and predicted data for predicting future change trend of climate, namely, historical climate simulation RCP rf data and future climate change data under two emission scenes of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are combined, wherein the mode horizontal resolution is 50km. The longitude range of the administrative region of Henan full province is 110-117 degrees, the latitude range is 31.5-36.5 degrees, 165 grid points are covered in the Henan full province region, and the grid point data distribution is plotted by the buffer software to generate the grid point data distribution as shown in figure 1.
(2) Summer maize development stage data statistics
Is derived from 17 summer corn agricultural meteorological stations in Henan province. The observation period is 30 years total from 1985 to 2014 with complete record.
2. Test method
(1) Selection of summer maize flowering phase
The male withdrawal general period is taken as the beginning date of the flowering period, and 7d is postponed to the rear of the male withdrawal general period as the ending date of the flowering period. According to 30 years of agricultural meteorological observation data, a years history average value of the beginning and ending dates of the summer corn flowering period, namely a flowering period normal year value, is calculated. And calculating the date of the beginning and ending of the flowering period on the RCP climate lattice point data in the Henan provincial area according to the principle of similar distance. The perennial value of the summer maize male-pulling phase sequence is shown in figure 2.
(2) Summer maize flowering phase high temperature heat damage index
Under the high temperature condition of 32-35 ℃, the corn pollen is dehydrated and dried up, the vitality is lost, and the corn pollen has an inhibiting effect on further development of pollen on the column head (such as germination of pollen and growth of pollen tubes). The temperature reaches 32 ℃ and lasts for 60 minutes, and the fertilization rate and the total real rate of the florets are obviously lower than those of the control; the fertilization rate and total setting rate of florets were also significantly lower than 32 ℃ treatment at temperatures above 35 ℃. Therefore, the disaster threshold of the high temperature injury at the temperature of more than or equal to 32 ℃ and the disaster threshold of the high temperature injury at the temperature of more than or equal to 35 ℃ are taken as two disaster thresholds of the high temperature injury at different degrees, namely the disaster threshold is a mild disaster at the temperature of more than or equal to 32 ℃ and a severe disaster at the temperature of more than or equal to 35 ℃. The frequency and the intensity of the high-temperature heat injury in the flowering phase of summer corns are comprehensively considered, and the high-temperature days and Gao Wenji injury which are more than or equal to 32 ℃ and more than or equal to 35 ℃ are determined to be used as two indexes for evaluating the influence of the high temperature in the flowering phase.
1) High temperature daily index: in the summer maize flowering period 7d determined in the selection of the summer maize flowering period in the test method (1), the day highest temperature is more than or equal to 32 ℃ and is used as a light high temperature day, the day highest temperature is more than or equal to 35 ℃ and is used as a heavy high temperature day, and the total number of days of each young and heavy high temperature disaster is counted respectively.
2) High temperature damage index: the severity of high-temperature disaster is represented by a high-temperature accumulation value with the highest air temperature of more than or equal to 32 ℃ or more than or equal to 35 ℃ in the flowering period, and the unit is the temperature d. The calculation formula is as follows
wherein ,THi Represents a Gao Wenji hazard value of at least 32 ℃ or at least 35 ℃, T hi T is the current accumulation and damage value max For highest daily temperature, T 0 The threshold value of the highest temperature in the flowering phase of summer corns is shown, namely 32 ℃ or 35 ℃.
(3) High-temperature disaster occurrence frequency in summer corn flowering phase
Counting the flowering period height Wen Rishu of 30-year summer corn divided by the total number of days of the flowering period, and calculating the occurrence frequency of high-temperature disasters historically, wherein the formula is as follows
wherein ,Pi The occurrence frequency of high temperature with the flowering phase being more than or equal to 32 ℃ or more than or equal to 35 ℃. n is n i Is divided into a summer maize with a flowering period of not less than 32 ℃ or not less than 35 ℃ and a height of Wen Rishu, N i Total summer maize flowering day.
(4) Summer maize flowering phase high temperature risk comprehensive index and risk classification
The climate risk index is expressed by multiplying probability by strength, and the method for calculating the summer maize flowering phase high temperature risk comprehensive index is as follows:
I＝ω 1 P 32 ×TH 32 +ω 2 P 35 ×TH 35 -type (IV)
Wherein I is summer maize flowering phase high temperature risk comprehensive index omega 1 and ω2 Respectively the weight coefficients of different degrees of high temperature influence, P 32 and P35 The occurrence frequency of high temperature is more than or equal to 32 ℃ or more than or equal to 35 ℃ respectively, TH 32 and TH35 Each corresponding to a Gao Wenji hazard value of the rank.
ω 1 and ω2 Determination method (see Jiangzhi soldier, etc., influence of high temperature on maize pollen viability [ J ]]Chinese agricultural bigThe school report, 2016,21 (3): 25-29) is:
a. setting up test: after entering the silk-laying period of the corncobs, bagging the corns with basically consistent growth vigor, dividing cells according to the temperature treatment requirement and marking. Cutting filaments and collecting powder in the powder scattering period, and heating the filaments by an electric heating constant temperature box to perform high-temperature treatment. And (3) carrying out artificial living pollination after high-temperature treatment, measuring the fertilization rate of florets after 3d, counting the number of corn ears in the middle of seed formation after 10d, and calculating the total setting rate.
b. High temperature treatment: a total of 3 temperature treatment levels were set: 32. 35 and 38 ℃; 5 high temperature duration treatments were set at each temperature: 5. 10, 20, 30 and 60min, no temperature treatment was set as Control (CK); each treatment was repeated 5 times.
c. The fertilization and setting loss rates after high-temperature treatment for 1 hour at the temperature of more than or equal to 32 ℃ and at the temperature of more than or equal to 35 ℃ are respectively counted, and the fertilization and setting loss rates after the high-temperature treatment at the temperature of more than or equal to 32 ℃ or at the temperature of more than or equal to 35 ℃ are obviously different from the control, and are respectively reduced by 49% and 65% compared with the control, and the weight coefficient is the relative proportion of the loss rates of the fertilization and setting loss rates, and the calculation method is as follows:
and (3) taking RCP rf standard conditions as references, and dividing the summer maize flowering phase high-temperature occurrence risk index into light, medium and heavy stages. The hierarchical threshold calculation formula is as follows
I a ＝a i ×I max -type (V)
wherein ,Ia For the threshold of classification, I max A is the highest comprehensive index of the whole area i Is a grading factor.
The practical experience of the production of the corn in Henan province of Henan root is combined with expert opinion, the mild and moderate risk classification coefficient is 0.4, the moderate and severe risk classification coefficient is 0.7, and the practical production situation is met. And according to the threshold value, directly applying the calculated grading threshold value to the situations of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to carry out light, medium and heavy risk grading.
3. Predictive modeling test result analysis
(1) Summer maize flowering period is Wen Rishu and disaster occurrence frequency is internationally changed
The high-temperature daily number change of summer corns with the flowering phase of more than or equal to 32 ℃ is shown as (a 1) to (a 3) in fig. 3, the high-temperature daily number of more than or equal to 32 ℃ in the RCP rf scene is changed within the range of 0.4-6.8 d, the average of years is 4.2d, and the high-temperature daily number change shows a remarkable rising trend (P < 0.05); the average of years under the RCP4.5 scene is 4.7d, and the change trend is not obvious; the heating amplitude is larger under the RCP8.5 scene, the average number of days at the high temperature of more than or equal to 32 ℃ is 4.8d, and the rising trend is obvious (P is less than 0.05). The change of Wen Rishu of summer corns with the flowering phase of more than or equal to 35 ℃ is shown as the graph from (b 1) to (b 3) in the graph, the average of Wen Rishu years of more than or equal to 35 ℃ under the RCP rf scene is 2.0d, and the trend is obvious (P < 0.05); the average of years under the RCP4.5 scene is 2.7d, and the variation trend is not obvious; the average of Wen Rishu is 2.8d at the temperature of more than or equal to 35 ℃ under the RCP8.5 scene, and the RCP has a remarkable rising trend (P < 0.05).
The high-temperature occurrence frequency of summer corns in the florescence of more than or equal to 32 ℃ and more than or equal to 35 ℃ is consistent with the variation trend of the number of days of high temperature (not less than the drawing), the occurrence frequency of the high temperature of the summer corns in the florescence of more than or equal to 32 ℃ and more than or equal to 35 ℃ in the RCP rf scene is 61.3 percent and 28.8 percent on average for many years, the rising trend of the high-temperature occurrence frequency of the summer corns in the florescence of the future RCP4.5 scene is not obvious, and the average of the high-temperature occurrence frequency of the summer corns in the florescence of many years is 69.6 percent (more than or equal to 32 ℃) and 38.3 percent (more than or equal to 35 ℃) on average. The high-temperature occurrence frequency of summer corn in future RCP8.5 scenes is in a remarkable rising trend (P < 0.05), and the average of years is 70.4% (. Gtoreq.32 ℃) and 40.1% (. Gtoreq.35 ℃). The fluctuation of the occurrence frequency of the high temperature of more than or equal to 35 ℃ is increased, and the variation coefficient in future scenes is respectively 15.4 percent (RCP 4.5) and 13.9 percent (RCP 8.5) which are both higher than 12.1 percent of the standard condition.
(2) Summer maize flowering time height Wen Rishu and disaster occurrence frequency spatial distribution
The spatial distribution of the high-temperature days with the summer corn flowering period more than or equal to 32 ℃ and the disaster occurrence frequency is shown in fig. 4 (a 1) to (a 3), the high-temperature days with the summer corn flowering period more than or equal to 32 ℃ are in the range of 1.7-5.7 d, and the high-temperature occurrence frequency is in the range of 20.5-81.0% in the RCP rf scene. Wherein the high temperature occurrence frequency of the Luoyang, the flat top mountain and the east of the south yang is more than 70% in most areas of the east and middle of the south yang, which are more than or equal to 32 ℃. Under the RCP4.5 scene, the summer corn flowering phase is more than or equal to 32 ℃ and the high-temperature daily number is in the range of 2.4-6.3 d, the high-temperature occurrence frequency is in the range of 30.6-89.9% in the whole province, and the high-value area of the high-temperature occurrence frequency is more than or equal to 32 ℃ and is mainly distributed in most areas of Zhengzhou, flat top mountain and middle east of south yang, and the frequency is more than 80%. The high-temperature occurrence frequency of summer corns with the flowering phase of more than or equal to 32 ℃ under the RCP8.5 scene is totally saved within the range of 36.1-87.3 percent, the high Wen Rishu is within the range of 2.8-6.1 d, and the high-value area distribution with the occurrence frequency of more than 80 percent is similar to the RCP4.5 scene. Compared with the standard condition, the high-temperature generation days of summer corns with the flowering phase of more than or equal to 32 ℃ in the future emission scene are respectively increased by 0.6d (RCP 4.5) and 0.5d (RCP 8.5), and the generation frequency is increased by 9.1 percent (RCP 4.5) and 11.0 percent (RCP 8.5).
The spatial distribution of the high Wen Rishu summer corn flowering phase of more than or equal to 35 ℃ and the disaster occurrence frequency is shown in fig. 4 (b 1) to (b 3), the high Wen Rishu summer corn flowering phase of more than or equal to 35 ℃ in the RCP rf scene is in the range of 0.3-3.6 d, and the high-temperature occurrence frequency is in the range of 3.9-51.9%. Wherein the high temperature of 35 ℃ or higher in most areas of Zheng Zhou, chuchang and Zhaodan in the east and south of the standing-mart store is more than 40 percent. The high-temperature occurrence frequency of summer corns with the florescence of more than or equal to 35 ℃ under the RCP4.5 scene is in the range of 8.8-59.7 percent, the high Wen Rishu is in the range of 0.8-4.2 d, and the high-value area of the high-temperature occurrence frequency of more than or equal to 35 ℃ is mainly distributed in most areas of the north east of new countryside, zheng state, chunchang and standing horse shops, and the high-temperature occurrence frequency is more than 50 percent. The high-temperature occurrence frequency of summer corns with the flowering phase of more than or equal to 35 ℃ under the RCP8.5 scene is in the range of 12.7-56.3%, the high Wen Rishu is in the range of 0.9-3.9 d, and the high-value area with the occurrence frequency of more than 80% is wider than the RCP4.5 scene distribution range. Compared with the standard condition, the high-temperature generation days of summer corns with the flowering phase of more than or equal to 35 ℃ in the future emission scene are respectively increased by 0.6d (RCP 4.5) and 0.7d (RCP 8.5), and the generation frequency is increased by 8.7 percent (RCP 4.5) and 8.3 percent (RCP 8.5).
(3) Internationally changing summer maize in high flowering phase Wen Ji
The internationally-variable pest annual change of summer corns with the flowering phase of more than or equal to 32 ℃ Gao Wenji is shown as figures 5 (a 1) to (a 3), the average pest annual change of the summer corns with the flowering phase of more than or equal to 32 ℃ Gao Wenji ℃ is 151.3 ℃ d under the RCP rf scene, and the RCP rf scene shows a remarkable rising trend (P < 0.05); the variation trend is not obvious under the RCP4.5 scene, and the average of years is 174.9 ℃ d; under the RCP8.5 scene, the summer corn flowering phase is more than or equal to 32 ℃ Gao Wenji pest and also has a remarkable rising trend (P is less than 0.05), and the average over many years is 177.9 ℃ d. The internationally-variable pest annual change of summer corns with the flowering phase of more than or equal to 35 ℃ Gao Wenji is shown as figures 5 (b 1) to (b 3), the average pest annual change of more than or equal to 35 ℃ Gao Wenji under the RCP rf scene is 75.5 ℃ d, and the rise trend is obvious (P < 0.05); the variation trend is not obvious under the RCP4.5 scene, and the average of years is 99.5 ℃ d; under the RCP8.5 scene, the summer corn flowering phase is more than or equal to 35 ℃ Gao Wenji pest and also has a remarkable rising trend (P is less than 0.05), and the average over many years is 106.1 ℃ d.
The difference of the Gao Wenji harmful variation coefficients at the temperature of more than or equal to 32 ℃ is smaller in different situations, but the Gao Wenji harmful variation coefficients at the temperature of more than or equal to 35 ℃ are 48.9% (RCP 4.5) and 46.1% (RCP 8.5) in future situations, which are higher than 38.6% of the standard conditions, so that the fluctuation of the occurrence of severe high-temperature disasters is larger.
(4) Summer maize flowering phase height Wen Ji harmful spatial distribution
The Gao Wenji harmful spatial distribution of summer corns with the flowering phase more than or equal to 32 ℃ is shown in the figures 6 (a 1) to (a 3), and the RCP rf scene is fully saved in the range of 48.5-200.9 ℃ d. Wherein, the height Wen Ji of most areas of the eastern part of the standing horse shop, the mountain of the flat top and the east of Zheng Zhzhou, the Jiangzheng are more than 180 ℃ d, which accounts for 53% of the main planting area of the corn in the whole province. The RCP4.5 is in the range of 73.4-231.3 ℃ d, and the harmful high-value area larger than 180 ℃ d is mainly distributed in most areas of the coke, the Luoyang, the Nanyang and the east, and the distribution area accounts for about 70% of the main planting area of the summer corn in the whole province. The range of the RCP8.5 is in the range of 87.3-223.8 ℃ d in the whole province, the distribution form is similar to that of the RCP4.5, and the range of the accumulated damage above 180 ℃ d is about 71% of the main planting area of the summer corn in the whole province. Compared with the standard condition, the summer corn flowering phase is larger than or equal to 32 ℃ Gao Wenji pest in the future emission scene, and is respectively increased by 25.4 ℃ d (RCP 4.5) and 25.6 ℃ d (RCP 8.5).
The spatial distribution of Gao Wenji harmful substances of summer corns with the flowering phase of more than or equal to 35 ℃ is shown in fig. 6 (b 1) to (b 3), and the RCP rf scene is fully saved in the range of 9.8-138.5 ℃ d. The high Wen Ji of Zhengzhou, chuchang and Zhou Kou in the northeast area is more than 120 ℃ d, and accounts for about 21% of the main planting area of the summer corn in the whole province. The pest accumulation high value area larger than 120 ℃ d is mainly distributed in most areas of the regions of the coke, zhengzhou and the eastern of the flat-topped mountain in the range of 22.5-160.3 ℃ d, which is the pest of the full province of more than or equal to 35 ℃ Gao Wenji under the RCP4.5 scene, and the area is obviously increased by about 51 percent of the area of the main planting area of the summer corns compared with the standard condition. The RCP8.5 is fully saved in the range of 32.7-154.9 ℃ d, and the distribution range of accumulated pests is more than 120 ℃ d, which is about 58% of the main planting area of summer corns. Compared with the standard condition, the summer corn flowering phase is more than or equal to 35 ℃ Gao Wenji pest in the future emission scene, and is respectively increased by 25.8 ℃ d (RCP 4.5) and 31.4 ℃ d (RCP 8.5).
(5) Summer maize flowering phase high temperature comprehensive risk analysis
The high-temperature occurrence frequency and the damage accumulation intensity of summer corns in the flowering phase are integrated, the integrated risk index is calculated according to a formula (V), the spatial distribution grade of the integrated risk index is shown in fig. 7, and the integrated risk index is generally distributed in the mode of east, west and low. The high-value risk area in the RCP rf scene is mainly distributed in the areas (except the mall) of the north of New countryside, zheng state, huchang, and Zhou Kou, and is about 30.1% of the area of the main planting area of summer corn, and the low-value risk area is mainly distributed in the three gorges of Yuxi, the western part of Luoyang and the northwest part of south yang. In the RCP4.5 scene, the first line of the Jiang, zheng and Pingshan regions are high risk regions in the middle of southeast Yang, and the low-value risk regions are mainly distributed in the three-channel gorges of Yuxi, the western part of Luoyang and the northwest part of south Yang, and the area is obviously reduced compared with that in the standard condition. Under the RCP8.5 scene, the heating amplitude is larger, the high-value risk area is wider, and the economic source, the eastern part of the Luoyang, the eastern part of the south yang and the eastern regions are all high-value risk areas. The area of the high-value risk area in the future scene is about 63.4 percent (RCP 4.5) and 76.3 percent (RCP 4.5) of the area of the main planting area of the summer corn, which are respectively increased by 33.3 percent (RCP 4.5) and 46.2 percent (RCP 4.5) compared with the standard condition, and the risk of the high-temperature disaster in the flowering phase of the summer corn in the future RCP scene is obviously increased.
(6) Summary of prediction results
The high-temperature daily number of the full-province summer corn with the flowering phase of more than or equal to 32 ℃ under the RCP rf scene is in the range of 1.7-5.7 d, and the occurrence frequency is in the range of 20.5-81.0%. Compared with the standard condition, the high-temperature generation days of summer corns with the flowering phase of more than or equal to 32 ℃ in future RCP scenes are respectively increased by 0.6d (RCP 4.5) and 0.5d (RCP 8.5), and the generation frequency is increased by 9.1 percent (RCP 4.5) and 11.0 percent (RCP 8.5). The summer corn flowering period is more than or equal to 35 ℃ under the RCP rf scene, the height Wen Rishu is within the range of 0.3-3.6 d, and the occurrence frequency is within the range of 3.9-51.9%. Compared with the standard condition, the summer corn flowering period is more than or equal to 35 ℃ under the future RCP scene, the high-temperature generation days are respectively increased by 0.6d (RCP 4.5) and 0.7d (RCP 8.5), and the generation frequency is increased by 8.7 percent (RCP 4.5) and 8.3 percent (RCP 8.5). The florescence of the full-province summer corns under the RCP rf scene is more than or equal to 32 ℃ Gao Wenji, the temperature is 48.5-200.9 ℃ d, and the temperature is more than or equal to 35 ℃ Gao Wenji, the temperature is 9.8-138.5 ℃. Compared with the standard condition, the summer corn flowering period is more than or equal to 32 ℃ Gao Wenji pest in future RCP scene, and is respectively increased by 25.4 ℃ d (RCP 4.5) and 25.6 ℃ d (RCP 8.5); the harmful effect is increased by 25.8 ℃ d (RCP 4.5) and 31.4 ℃ d (RCP 8.5) respectively at more than or equal to 35 ℃ Gao Wenji.
The high-value risk area under the RCP rf scene is mainly distributed in the areas (except the mall) of the north of new villages, zheng states, chunchang, the rivers and Zhou Kou, and is about 30.1 percent of the area of the main planting area of the summer corns, the area of the high-value risk area under the future scene is enlarged to the most areas of the east of the Luoyang and the south yang, and is about 63.4 percent (RCP 4.5) and 76.3 percent (RCP 4.5) of the area of the main planting area of the summer corns, and 33.3 percent (RCP 4.5) and 46.2 percent (RCP 4.5) of the high-value risk area are respectively increased compared with the standard conditions, so that the risk of the high-temperature disaster in the summer corns is increased.
4. Effect verification of summer maize flowering phase high-temperature disaster risk prediction method under climate warming trend
Taking the occurrence of high-temperature disasters in summer corn in Xiping county, the city of the standing-for-marc in Henan, 2017 as an example, the statistics show that the high-temperature days at the temperature of more than or equal to 32 ℃ are 5 days, and the high temperature of more than or equal to 35 ℃ is Wen Rishu days. The damage is 179.1 ℃ d at the temperature of not less than 32 ℃ Gao Wenji, and 146.2 ℃ d at the temperature of not less than 35 ℃ Gao Wenji, which are all high-value areas at high temperature risk. The field disaster investigation result shows that the summer corn has serious high-temperature disaster (as shown in fig. 8 and 9), and the pollen abortion causes poor fruiting and fruiting, which shows that the risk prediction result of the summer corn flowering phase high-temperature disaster in the climate warming trend in the embodiment accords with the actual situation.
Along with the warming of climate, the method predicts the trend of the risk of high-temperature disasters in the flowering phase of summer corns in a future place, has important practical significance for corn production guidance, for example, for areas with obvious high-temperature hazards, the method can improve the yield by changing varieties with later maturing in production to fully utilize heat resources in growing seasons; in addition, high temperature often accompanies drought, and drought frequently occurs in areas with higher high temperature risks, so that water and fertilizer regulation and control can be enhanced at the high temperature disaster risk degree in the flowering phase of summer corns, which is a comprehensive effective measure for defending high temperature drought, heat resistance of corns can be increased by additionally applying organic fertilizer, applying trace element zinc fertilizer and supplementing potassium fertilizer in later period, field temperature can be reduced by reasonable irrigation, sufficient moisture can be obtained from the irrigated corns, transpiration effect is promoted, and canopy temperature is reduced, so that high temperature disaster influence is effectively reduced.
While the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the drawings and the embodiments, those skilled in the art will understand that various specific parameters in the above embodiments may be changed without departing from the spirit of the invention, and a plurality of specific embodiments are common variation ranges of the present invention, and will not be described in detail herein.
Claims (3)
1. The summer maize flowering phase high-temperature disaster risk prediction method under the climate warming trend is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
(1) Determining a flowering period start-stop date normal year value of the summer corn to be predicted, mapping the flowering period start-stop date normal year value to RCP climate lattice point data in a longitude and latitude range of the administrative region to be predicted, and forming a corresponding prediction database; the usual year value of the flowering period starting and ending date is a years history average value of the summer maize flowering period starting and ending date;
(2) Respectively calculating the high Wen Ji harm value corresponding to the air temperature of more than or equal to 32 ℃ and more than or equal to 35 ℃ in the summer maize flowering period according to the following formula by using the highest air temperature and the flowering period date data in the prediction databaseTH 32 AndTH 35 ：
wherein ,TH i indicating that the temperature is more than or equal to 32 DEG COr a high Wen Ji hazard value at a temperature of not less than 35 ℃,T hi for the value of the harm of the current day,T max for the highest air temperature day by day,T 0 the critical value of the highest temperature in the flowering phase of summer corns is 32 ℃ or 35 ℃;nthe day number of the highest air temperature of summer corn in the flowering phase is more than or equal to 32 ℃ or more than or equal to 35 ℃;
(3) Respectively statistically calculating the frequency of occurrence of high-temperature disasters corresponding to the highest air temperature of more than or equal to 32 ℃ and the highest air temperature of more than or equal to 35 ℃ in the summer corn flowering periodP 32 AndP 35 ：
wherein , n i is divided into a local history that the summer corn flowering period is higher than or equal to 32 ℃ or higher than or equal to 35 ℃ and is Wen Rishu,N i total summer corn flowering day;
(4) Determining summer maize flowering phase high temperature risk comprehensive index according to the following methodI：
wherein ,ω 1 andω 2 respectively the weight coefficients of the high temperature influences of different degrees, and respectively calculating the fertilization maturing loss rate a after the high temperature treatment for 1 hour at the temperature of more than or equal to 32 ℃ and the high temperature treatment at the temperature of more than or equal to 35 ℃ through test statistics 1 and a2 Then calculate according to the following formulaω 1 Andω 2 ：
(5) Obtaining the highest comprehensive index in the whole area under the RCP rf scene to be detected according to the steps (2) - (4)I max And determining a threshold value of the summer maize flowering phase high-temperature risk classification according to the following methodI a ：
wherein ,I max for the highest overall index of the whole region to be predicted,a i is a grading coefficient; wherein, the grading coefficient of the light and medium risk demarcation points is 0.4, and the grading coefficient of the medium and heavy risk demarcation points is 0.7.
2. The method for predicting the risk of a summer maize flowering phase high-temperature disaster under the climate warming trend according to claim 1, wherein the flowering phase starting date is a male-withdrawal prevalent period and the flowering phase ending date is 7d later than the male-withdrawal prevalent period.
3. The method for predicting risk of summer maize flowering phase high temperature disasters in a climate warming trend according to claim 1, wherein in the step (1), the RCP climate lattice point data adopts future climate change data in an RCP4.5 or RCP8.5 emission scenario.
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