CN112394401A - Clastic rock trap hydrocarbon-containing evaluation method based on risk probability - Google Patents
Clastic rock trap hydrocarbon-containing evaluation method based on risk probability Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a clastic rock trap hydrocarbon-containing evaluation method based on risk probability, which comprises the following steps: analyzing possible factors influencing the trap hydrocarbon-bearing property, wherein the possible factors comprise trap conditions, hydrocarbon sources and filling conditions, reservoir conditions and storage conditions; analyzing the success and the disfavor trapping of continental facies clastic rock drilling according to trapping conditions, hydrocarbon sources, filling conditions, reservoir conditions and storage conditions, carrying out gas reservoir dissection, and determining the risk evaluation assignment standard of each possible factor; based on the actual parameters of the oil and gas drilling target, assigning values to each possible factor according to the risk evaluation assignment standard obtained in the step two; calculating the hydrocarbon-containing probability of the oil and gas drilling target, wherein the hydrocarbon-containing probability p is p1×p2×p3×p4Wherein p is the probability of oil-gas content, p1Value of trap condition, p2Taking of hydrocarbon source and filling conditionsValue, p3Is a value of reservoir condition, p4Is a value of the storage condition.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a trapped hydrocarbon-containing property evaluation method, in particular to a clastic rock trapped hydrocarbon-containing evaluation method based on risk probability.
Background
The location suitable for oil and gas accumulation and formation of oil and gas reservoir is called trap. The trap hydrocarbon-containing property refers to the reservoir forming condition of the trap in a hydrocarbon reservoir forming system, and is determined by the accuracy of data adopted in the trap identification process, the accuracy of technical methods such as seismic interpretation and the like, and various geological factors such as a hydrocarbon source, a reservoir, storage, gathering and time-space matching of the geological environment where the trap is identified. The evaluation of the trap hydrocarbon-containing property is to carry out geological judgment or assignment on the conditions, judge the hydrocarbon-containing possibility and the hydrocarbon-containing fullness degree by using different methods, and accurately evaluate the trap hydrocarbon-containing property probability, thereby being beneficial to improving the success rate of drilling targets on the hydrocarbon.
The clastic rock trap of Sichuan basin mainly develops in Jurassic system and Bessen river group, and the main trap type is lithologic and tectonic. The hydrocarbon source rock mainly comes from a Fujia river group, the reservoir heterogeneity is strong, the reservoir physical properties are closely related to pore reservoirs and cracks, the seismic response characteristics of the reservoirs are various, various traps exist, the trapped fluid identification and the gas content detection are difficult, and the evaluation difficulty of the trapped gas content is large. At present, evaluation of oil and gas content of a geosynchronous clastic rock trap in a Sichuan basin mainly comprises the steps of assigning values to a hydrocarbon source, a reservoir, storage, a running and gathering and time-air matching condition, respectively calculating by adopting weighted average, fuzzy mathematics and risk probability, and finally, comprehensively judging different weight values by adopting a Terfel method. However, in the method, the factors are regarded as sufficient conditions of the oil-gas containing property of the trap rather than necessary conditions, weight assignment calculation is carried out on the factors, the short plate effect of the wooden barrel is ignored, the evaluation result deviation is large, the oil-gas containing property of the trap cannot be truly, effectively and accurately evaluated, the success rate of drilling a target on oil gas is influenced, and the success rate of pre-exploration of the well is low.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to overcome the defects in the prior art and provide a clastic rock trapped hydrocarbon evaluation method based on risk probability.
In order to achieve the above purpose, the invention provides the following technical scheme:
a clastic rock entrapment hydrocarbon-containing evaluation method based on risk probability comprises the following steps:
the method comprises the following steps: analyzing possible factors influencing the trap hydrocarbon-bearing property, wherein the possible factors comprise trap conditions, hydrocarbon sources and filling conditions, reservoir conditions and storage conditions, and the four possible factors comprise all possibilities of influencing the trap hydrocarbon-bearing property;
step two: analyzing the success and the disfavor trapping of continental facies clastic rock drilling according to trapping conditions, hydrocarbon sources, filling conditions, reservoir conditions and storage conditions, carrying out gas reservoir dissection, and determining the risk evaluation assignment standard of each possible factor;
step three: based on the actual parameters of the oil and gas drilling target, assigning values to each possible factor according to the risk evaluation assignment standard obtained in the step two;
step four: calculating the hydrocarbon-bearing probability of the oil and gas drilling target, said hydrocarbon-bearing probabilityp＝p1×p2×p3×p4Wherein p is the probability of oil-gas content, p1Value of trap condition, p2Is taken to be the value of the hydrocarbon source and the filling conditions, p3Is a value of reservoir condition, p4Is a value of the storage condition.
Preferably, in the first step:
the trapping conditions comprise four sub-factors of seismic data quality and control degree, well-to-seismic relation, structural explanation and drawing, reservoir prediction forward and backward modeling model;
the hydrocarbon source and the charging condition comprise three sub-factors of effective hydrocarbon source rock, migration channel and space-time configuration;
the reservoir conditions comprise four sub-factors of sedimentary facies belt and type, reservoir thickness and distribution, reservoir rock characteristics and reservoir physical properties;
the storage conditions comprise three sub-factors of the property of the cover layer, lithologic shielding and later-period destruction.
Preferably, in the second step, a plurality of experts analyze and summarize the drilling success, the disinterest trapping and the gas reservoir dissection of the facies clastic rock, and the value of each sub-factor is divided into { c1、c2、c3、c4、c55 ranks, rank c1Corresponding assignment of [1, 0.8), level c2Corresponding assignments of [0.8, 0.6), rank c3Corresponding assignments of [0.6, 0.4), rank c4Corresponding assignments of [0.4, 0.2), rank c5The corresponding assignment is [0.2, 0]。
Preferably, correlation analysis is carried out on four sub-factors of the quality and the control degree of the seismic data, the well-to-seismic relation, the structural explanation and the forward and backward modeling model of the image and the reservoir prediction in the trap condition, the four sub-factors are correlated according to the correlation analysis result, and the values of the quality and the control degree of the seismic data are taken as the values of the trap condition by combining the judgment of experts on the weight of the sub-factors;
performing correlation analysis on three sub-factors of effective hydrocarbon source rocks, a migration channel and space-time configuration in the hydrocarbon source and the filling condition, wherein the three sub-factors are mutually independent according to a correlation analysis result, and taking an effective hydrocarbon source rock value, a migration channel value and a space-time configuration value as values of the hydrocarbon source and the filling condition;
performing correlation analysis on four sub-factors of sedimentary facies zone and type, reservoir thickness and distribution, reservoir rock characteristics and reservoir physical properties in the reservoir conditions, wherein the four sub-factors are mutually independent according to correlation analysis results, and the sedimentary facies zone and type value multiplied by the reservoir thickness and distribution value multiplied by the reservoir rock characteristic value multiplied by the reservoir physical properties value are taken as the values of the reservoir conditions;
and performing correlation analysis on the three sub-factors of the cover layer property, the lithologic shielding and the later-period damage in the storage condition, wherein the three sub-factors are mutually independent according to the correlation analysis result, and the cover layer property value, the lithologic shielding value and the later-period damage value are used as the values of the storage condition.
Preferably, for the seismic data quality and control degree:
grade c1The corresponding standard is that the first-grade product rate of the section reaches 90% or above, all section phases can be continuously tracked, the breakpoint is clearly reflected, and the well-shaped measuring line control is realized;
grade c2The corresponding standard is that the first-grade product rate of the section is within the interval (80 percent and 90 percent), more than 80 percent of phases can be continuously tracked, the breakpoint is clearly reflected, and the section is controlled by a 'well' measuring line;
grade c3The corresponding standard is that the first-grade product rate of the section is within an interval (60 percent and 80 percent), more than 50 percent of phases can be continuously tracked, the breakpoint is clearly reflected, and two measuring lines pass through a trap;
grade c4The corresponding standard is that the first-grade product rate of the section is within the interval (50 percent and 60 percent), more than 50 percent of phases can be continuously tracked, the breakpoint is clearly reflected, and a measuring line passes through a trap;
grade c5The corresponding standard is that the first-grade yield of the section is less than 50%, the continuously-tracked phase is less than 50%, the breakpoint is not clear, and no measuring line passes through the trap.
Preferably, for the effective source rock:
grade c1The corresponding criteria is that the drilling or geophysical data confirm that the source rock is present and can provide sufficient source, i.e. the amount of hydrocarbon produced by the source rock is substantially equal to the amount of oil and gas accumulated in the trap;
grade c2The corresponding standard is that the drilling or geophysical prospecting data prove that the hydrocarbon source rock exists, the hydrocarbon source can be better provided, and oil gas generated by the hydrocarbon source rock can better meet the trap aggregation, namely the oil gas generated by the hydrocarbon source rock is less than or equal to the aggregation amount in the trap;
grade c3The corresponding standard is that drilling or geophysical prospecting data prove that hydrocarbon source rocks possibly exist, so that a hydrocarbon source can be provided well, and the possible existence means that regional research shows that the rocks are a set of hydrocarbon source rocks, but the condition that no drilling is carried out proves does not exclude the condition that phase change does not exist;
grade c4Corresponding criteria are that the drilling or geophysical data confirm that source rock may exist, and can provide part of the hydrocarbon source;
grade c5The corresponding criteria are that the drilling or geophysical data confirm that the source rock is not present and cannot be provided.
Preferably, for the migration passage:
grade c1The corresponding standard is that the drilling or seismic data confirms that the migration channel exists and is an oil and gas migration dominant channel, including fracture, unconformity and extremely developed fracture;
grade c2The corresponding standard is that the drilling or seismic data confirms that the migration channel exists and is a favorable channel for oil and gas migration, including the development of fracture, unconformity and crack;
grade c3The corresponding standard is that the drilling or seismic data prove that the migration channel exists, and the development degree of fracture, unconformity and crack is low;
grade c4The corresponding standard is that the drilling or seismic data prove that the migration channel exists, and the development degree of fracture, unconformity and crack is low;
grade c5Corresponding criteria are confirmation of fractures, unconformities, fractures by drilling or seismic dataIt does not develop.
Preferably, for the spatiotemporal configuration:
grade c1The corresponding standard is that the trap forming time is earlier than the hydrocarbon generation and expulsion peak period of the hydrocarbon source rock, and the trap is positioned on the oil and gas migration channel and can be efficiently filled;
grade c2The corresponding criteria are that the trap is formed earlier than or at the same time as the hydrocarbon source rock hydrocarbon generation and expulsion peak period, and the trap is positioned above the oil and gas migration channel but not at the most favorable position;
grade c3The corresponding standard is that the trap forming time is later than or equal to the hydrocarbon source rock hydrocarbon generation and expulsion peak period, and the trap may not be positioned on the oil and gas migration channel;
grade c4The corresponding standard is that the trap forming time is later than the hydrocarbon source rock hydrocarbon generation and expulsion peak period, and the trap is not positioned on the oil and gas migration channel;
grade c5The corresponding standard is that the trap forming time is later than the hydrocarbon source rock hydrocarbon generation and expulsion peak period, and the traps do not belong to the same oil gas system.
Preferably, for the sedimentary phase belt and type:
grade c1The corresponding standard is that according to well drilling and reservoir prediction, an effective reservoir is underwater diversion river sedimentation;
grade c2The corresponding standard is that according to well drilling and reservoir prediction, an effective reservoir is deposited by a estuary dam;
grade c3The corresponding standard is that according to well drilling and reservoir prediction, an effective reservoir is deposition among riverways;
grade c4The corresponding standard is that according to well drilling and reservoir prediction, the effective reservoir may be deposited by an underwater diversion river channel and a estuary dam;
grade c5The corresponding criteria are no valid reservoir or missing based on well drilling and reservoir predictions.
Preferably, for the reservoir thickness and distribution:
grade c1The corresponding standard is that the thickness of the reservoir is more than or equal to 40m, and the thickness of the single sand body is in the interval of 10m and 15m]Within;
grade c2The corresponding standards are that the thickness of the reservoir is within the interval [20m, 40m ], and the thickness of the single sand body is within the interval [6m, 10 m);
grade c3The corresponding standards are that the thickness of the reservoir is within the interval [10m, 20m ], and the thickness of the single sand body is within the interval [4m, 6 m);
grade c4The corresponding standard is that the thickness of the reservoir is less than 10m, and the thickness of the single sand body is less than 4 m;
grade c5The corresponding standard is that the thickness of the reservoir is smaller than a lower limit value set by resource evaluation, and the lower limit value is an economic limit lower limit determined by the engineering technology level and economic conditions.
Preferably, for the reservoir rock characteristics:
grade c1The corresponding standard is that the maturity of the rock debris sandstone component is more than 1.5, and the rock debris sandstone component is fine and is subjected to strong erosion and medium-pressure compaction and medium-pressure erosion;
grade c2The corresponding standard is that the maturity of the rock debris sandstone component is more than 1.5, the rock debris sandstone component is fine, and the rock debris sandstone component is compacted by medium pressure and is weak in corrosion;
grade c3The corresponding standards are that the maturity of the rock debris sandstone component is less than or equal to 1.5, the rock debris sandstone component is ground and fine, and medium-pressure compaction and strong cementation are carried out;
grade c4The corresponding standards are that the maturity of the rock debris sandstone component is less than or equal to 1.5, and the rock debris sandstone component is powdered, fine and moderately compacted and strongly cemented;
grade c5The corresponding standards are that the maturity of the ingredients of the rock debris sandstone is low, the ingredients of the debris are far away from the final stable sediment, and the particles, the compaction and the cementation are strong.
Preferably, for the reservoir properties:
grade c1The corresponding standards are that the porosity of the reservoir is more than 12 percent, and the permeability is more than 0.4 MD;
grade c2The corresponding criterion is that the reservoir porosity lies in the interval [ 9%, 12%]Within the interval [0.1MD, 0.4MD ] permeability]Within;
grade c3The corresponding criteria are reservoir porosity within interval [ 7%, 9%), permeability within interval [0.06MD, 0.1 MD);
grade c4The corresponding criteria are reservoir porosity within the interval [ 4%, 7%) and permeability within the interval [0.01MD, 0.06 MD);
grade c5The corresponding standard is that when the physical property of the reservoir is smaller than the lower limit value set by resource evaluation, the lower limit value is the lower limit of economic limit determined by both engineering technology level and economic condition.
Preferably, for the cap layer properties:
grade c1The corresponding standard is that the drilling and seismic data show that the cover layer is determined to exist;
grade c2The corresponding standard is that the drilling and seismic data indicate that the cover layer exists;
grade c3The corresponding standard is that well drilling and seismic data indicate that a cover layer may exist, and the possible existence indicates that a regional research exists, but phase change or structural defects are not excluded;
grade c4The corresponding criteria are that the drilling and seismic data indicate that the cap layer may be missing;
grade c5Corresponding criteria are that the well and seismic data indicate a lack of overburden determination.
Preferably, for the lithologic occlusion:
grade c1The corresponding standards are that the rocky property of the overburden is good, the blocking property of the overburden at the top of the trap is good, and the lateral blocking property of the reservoir is good;
grade c2The corresponding standards are that the rocky property of the overburden is good, the blocking property of the overburden at the top of the trap is good, and the lateral blocking property of the reservoir is good;
grade c3The corresponding standards are that the cap rock property is better, the blocking property of the cap layer at the top of the trap is better, and the lateral blocking property of the reservoir is better;
grade c4The corresponding standards are that the difference between the compactness degree of the cover layer and the reservoir is not large, the enclosed top cover layer may be blocked or not blocked, and the difference between the compactness degree of the reservoir and the non-reservoir is small, so that the reservoir cannot be completely blocked;
grade c5The corresponding standards are poor lithology of the cap layer, poor blocking performance of the cap layer at the top of the trap and poor lateral blocking performance of the reservoir.
Preferably, for said late destruction:
grade c1The corresponding standards are that the structural activity strength is weak, the cover layer is not cracked, and the later-period damage effect is weak;
grade c2The corresponding standards are that the structural activity strength is weak, the cover layer is not broken, and the later-period damage effect is strong;
grade c3The corresponding standards are that the structural activity strength is strong, the cover layer is broken, and the later-period damage effect is strong;
grade c4The corresponding standard is that the structural activity strength is strong, and the later destructive effect is strong;
grade c5The corresponding standards are that the strength of the structural activity is strong, and the later destructive effect is strong.
Preferably, the standard corresponding to each different grade of each sub-factor is determined by a plurality of experts together, the sub-factors can be described by adopting a qualitative language, and when the opinions of the experts are inconsistent, the standard is determined according to the principle that a small number of the sub-factors are subject to majority.
Preferably, the fourth step is followed by a fifth step: through the calculation result of the hydrocarbon-containing probability of the continental clastic rock trap and the statistical analysis of the drilling success rate of the pre-exploration well, 5 risk levels are divided, and the risk levels are respectively extremely low risk traps: the probability of containing oil gas is more than 0.5, 1; low risk entrapment: oil gas probability [0.25, 0.5); intermediate risk traps: oil gas containing probability [0.1, 0.25); high risk entrapment: oil gas containing probability [0.05, 0.1); extremely high risk traps: oil gas probability [0, 0.05).
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
the method takes possible factors influencing the hydrocarbon-containing property of the trap as a main line, establishes five-level assignment standards of trap conditions, hydrocarbon sources and filling conditions, reservoir conditions and storage conditions as keys, adopts a risk probability method calculation model to finally calculate the hydrocarbon-containing probability of the clastic rock trap, and takes the pre-exploration well drilling result rate as a validation index, thereby improving the reliability of evaluation of the hydrocarbon-containing property of the trap. The method fully applies the wooden barrel effect principle in the evaluation condition of the oil and gas containing property of the trap, and calculates the oil and gas containing property of the trap by multiplying the probability of all possible factors, so that the fatal influence caused by the short plate effect can be accurately eliminated, the evaluation result is more accurate, and the oil and gas containing property of the trap can be truly and effectively evaluated. The method is particularly suitable for evaluating the oil gas contained in the clastic rock trap of the Sichuan basin.
Description of the drawings:
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a clastic rock entrapment hydrocarbon-containing evaluation method based on risk probability according to the invention.
Detailed Description
The present invention will be described in further detail with reference to test examples and specific embodiments. It should be understood that the scope of the above-described subject matter is not limited to the following examples, and any techniques implemented based on the disclosure of the present invention are within the scope of the present invention.
Example 1
As shown in FIG. 1, a clastic rock entrapment hydrocarbon-containing evaluation method based on risk probability comprises the following steps:
the method comprises the following steps: possible factors affecting trap hydrocarbon cut are analyzed, including trap conditions, hydrocarbon source and charge conditions, reservoir conditions, and storage conditions.
The trapping conditions comprise four sub-factors of seismic data quality and control degree, well-to-seismic relation, structural explanation and drawing, reservoir prediction forward and backward modeling model, and correlation analysis is carried out on the four sub-factors. According to the correlation analysis result, the four sub-factors are correlated, the accuracy of the seismic data quality and the control degree affects the accuracy of the other three sub-factors, and the values of the seismic data quality and the control degree are taken as the values of the trap condition by combining the judgment of experts on the sub-factor weight. I.e. p1＝η1Wherein p is1Taken as the value of the trap condition, η1The seismic data quality and control degree are evaluated.
The hydrocarbon source and filling conditions comprise three sub-factors of effective hydrocarbon source rock, migration channels and space-time configuration, and correlation analysis is carried out on the three sub-factors. Three sub-factors according to the correlation analysis resultThe effective hydrocarbon source rock value, the migration channel value and the space-time configuration value are mutually independent, and therefore the effective hydrocarbon source rock value, the migration channel value and the space-time configuration value are used as values of the hydrocarbon source and the filling condition. I.e. p2＝φ1×φ2×φ3Wherein p is2Is taken to be the value of the hydrocarbon source and the filling conditions1Is taken as the value of the effective hydrocarbon source rock, phi2For the value of the migration channel, phi3Is the value of space-time configuration.
The reservoir condition comprises four sub-factors of sedimentary facies belt and type, reservoir thickness and distribution, reservoir rock characteristics and reservoir physical properties, and correlation analysis is carried out on the four sub-factors. According to the correlation analysis result, the four sub-factors are mutually independent, so that sedimentary facies belt and type values, reservoir thickness and distribution values, reservoir rock characteristic values and reservoir physical property values are used as values of the reservoir conditions. I.e. p3＝γ1×γ2×γ3×γ4Wherein p is3Is a value of reservoir condition, gamma1For values of sedimentary bands and types, gamma2Taking into account the thickness and distribution of the reservoir, gamma3Taking into account the reservoir rock characteristics, gamma4Is the value of the physical property of the reservoir.
The storage conditions comprise three sub-factors of cover layer property, lithologic shielding and later-period destruction, and correlation analysis is carried out on the three sub-factors. According to the correlation analysis result, the three sub-factors are mutually independent, so that the cover layer property value, the lithologic shielding value and the later-period damage value are taken as the values of the storage condition. I.e. p4＝λ1×λ2×λ3Wherein p is4For values of storage conditions, λ1Taken as the value of the property of the cap layer, λ2Taking the value of lithologic occlusion, λ3The value of later-period destruction.
Step two: a plurality of experts analyze different tectonic zones (a mountain front zone, a slope zone and a ridge zone) of the terrestrial clastic rock of the Sichuan basin according to the trapping condition, the hydrocarbon source and filling condition, the reservoir condition and the storage condition, the main reasons of successful drilling (45 new field beard two sections, Majing Shaxi temple group, Zhongjiang Shaxi temple group, Guangan beard four sections, Anyue beard two sections and the like) and the loss (4 source-gathered Shaxi temple, known new field beard two sections, Ziyang beard two sections and the like), the loss success and the loss trapping are mainly caused by the three reasons of unfavorable hydrocarbon source and filling, undeveloped reservoir and poor storage condition and the like.
Table 1 below gives the trap elements for 23 of the four-basin dwarfism traps, 21 of which were successfully drilled and 2 of which were lost.
TABLE 1 Sichuan basin Jurassic system trap element table
Typical gas reservoirs such as a new place must be two, a Guangan must be four, a Majing Shaxi temple, a Zhongjiang Shaxi temple, a Gongshan temple and a Daampere village are dissected, and the dissection shows that good conductance conditions are key to reservoir formation, the spreading of a high-quality reservoir layer determines the spreading of the gas reservoirs, and the development degree of cracks is key to high yield. Determining risk evaluation assignment criteria of each possible factor according to analysis and anatomy results, and specifically, dividing values of each sub-factor into { c }1、c2、c3、c4、c55 ranks, rank c1Corresponding assignment of [1, 0.8), level c2Corresponding assignments of [0.8, 0.6), rank c3Corresponding assignments of [0.6, 0.4), rank c4Corresponding assignments of [0.4, 0.2), rank c5The corresponding assignment is [0.2, 0]。
The standard corresponding to each different grade of each sub-factor is determined by a plurality of experts together, qualitative languages can be adopted to describe the sub-factors, when the opinions of the experts are inconsistent, the standard is determined according to the principle that a minority obeys a majority, and the specific grade standard of each sub-factor is shown in the following tables 2-5:
TABLE 2 evaluation criteria for seismic data quality and control level in the trap conditions
TABLE 3 evaluation criteria for each sub-factor in hydrocarbon source and fill conditions
TABLE 4 assignment criteria for each sub-factor in reservoir conditions
TABLE 5 assignment criteria for each sub-factor in the storage conditions
Step three: and (4) based on the actual parameters of the oil and gas drilling target, assigning values to each possible factor according to the risk evaluation assignment standard obtained in the step two.
Step four: calculating the hydrocarbon-containing probability of the oil and gas drilling target, wherein the hydrocarbon-containing probability p is p1×p2×p3×p4＝η1×φ1×φ2×φ3×γ1×γ2×γ3×γ4×λ1×λ2×λ3Wherein p is the probability of oil-gas content, p1Value of trap condition, p2Is taken to be the value of the hydrocarbon source and the filling conditions, p3Is a value of reservoir condition, p4Taken as the value of the storage condition eta1For seismic data qualityAnd the value of the degree of control, phi1Is taken as the value of the effective hydrocarbon source rock, phi2For the value of the migration channel, phi3Is a value of a spatio-temporal configuration, gamma1For values of sedimentary bands and types, gamma2Taking into account the thickness and distribution of the reservoir, gamma3Taking into account the reservoir rock characteristics, gamma4Is a value of reservoir physical property, lambda1Taken as the value of the property of the cap layer, λ2Taking the value of lithologic occlusion, λ3The value of later-period destruction.
Step five: through calculation results of the hydrocarbon-containing probability of the continental clastic rock trap of the Sichuan basin and statistical analysis of the drilling success rate of the pre-exploration well, 5 risk levels are divided into which are respectively extremely low risk traps (the trap is very reliable in implementation, the hydrocarbon accumulation conditions are excellent, and high-yield industrial gas flow can be expected): the probability of containing oil gas is more than 0.5, 1; low risk traps (reliable trap implementation, good oil and gas reservoir conditions, expected availability of industrial gas flow): oil gas probability [0.25, 0.5); moderate risk entrapment (reliable entrapment and better storage conditions, or more reliable entrapment and good storage conditions, expected low yield industrial gas flow): oil gas containing probability [0.1, 0.25); high risk traps (traps are more reliable to perform, better in the storage conditions, expected to show weakly or weakly): oil gas containing probability [0.05, 0.1); very high risk traps (poor trap implementation, or at least one component of occlusion, predicted as no display): oil gas probability [0, 0.05).
The method for evaluating the hydrocarbon-containing rate is characterized in that 25 Sichuan basin land-phase clastic rock traps are evaluated according to the hydrocarbon-containing rate evaluation method, pre-exploration well drilling is carried out, and the statistical results of the hydrocarbon-containing rate and the actual drilling result obtained by trap calculation are shown in the following table 6:
TABLE 6 statistical table of hydrocarbon-bearing probability and actual drilling result obtained by trap calculation
The hydrocarbon-containing probability of the trap is verified by applying the success rate of the trap drilling in the zone or the same field, and as can be seen from the table 6, according to the actual drilling result of the pre-exploration well, the accuracy of the hydrocarbon-containing probability calculated by the method is up to 76%, and the deviation occurs only near part of critical points, so that the accuracy is greatly improved compared with the accuracy of the traditional calculation method.
Furthermore, statistical analysis is carried out on the drilling success rate of trap drilling of different types of oil and gas reservoirs in different areas and different fields, and after the oil and gas containing evaluation method is adopted, the drilling success rate of the Sichuan basin is improved from 45.45% to 69.23%.
The above embodiments are only used for illustrating the invention and not for limiting the technical solutions described in the invention, and although the present invention has been described in detail in the present specification with reference to the above embodiments, the present invention is not limited to the above embodiments, and therefore, any modification or equivalent replacement of the present invention is made; all such modifications and variations are intended to be included herein within the scope of this disclosure and the appended claims.
Claims (10)
1. A clastic rock entrapment hydrocarbon-containing evaluation method based on risk probability is characterized by comprising the following steps:
the method comprises the following steps: analyzing possible factors influencing the trap hydrocarbon-bearing property, wherein the possible factors comprise trap conditions, hydrocarbon sources and filling conditions, reservoir conditions and storage conditions;
step two: analyzing the success and the disfavor trapping of continental facies clastic rock drilling according to trapping conditions, hydrocarbon sources, filling conditions, reservoir conditions and storage conditions, carrying out gas reservoir dissection, and determining the risk evaluation assignment standard of each possible factor;
step three: based on the actual parameters of the oil and gas drilling target, assigning values to each possible factor according to the risk evaluation assignment standard obtained in the step two;
step four: calculating the drilling purpose of oil and gasTarget hydrocarbon-containing probability, p ═ p1×p2×p3×p4Wherein p is the probability of oil-gas content, p1Value of trap condition, p2Is taken to be the value of the hydrocarbon source and the filling conditions, p3Is a value of reservoir condition, p4Is a value of the storage condition.
2. The method for evaluating hydrocarbon content in clastic rock traps based on risk probability as claimed in claim 1, wherein in the step one:
the trapping conditions comprise four sub-factors of seismic data quality and control degree, well-to-seismic relation, structural explanation and drawing, reservoir prediction forward and backward modeling model;
the hydrocarbon source and the charging condition comprise three sub-factors of effective hydrocarbon source rock, migration channel and space-time configuration;
the reservoir conditions comprise four sub-factors of sedimentary facies belt and type, reservoir thickness and distribution, reservoir rock characteristics and reservoir physical properties;
the storage conditions comprise three sub-factors of the property of the cover layer, lithologic shielding and later-period destruction.
3. The method for evaluating hydrocarbon content in clastic rock entrapment based on risk probability as claimed in claim 2, wherein in the second step, the continental clastic rock drilling success, the disfavor entrapment and the gas reservoir dissection are analyzed and summarized, and the value of each sub-factor is divided into { c } according to the summarized result1、c2、c3、c4、c55 ranks, rank c1Corresponding assignment of [1, 0.8), level c2Corresponding assignments of [0.8, 0.6), rank c3Corresponding assignments of [0.6, 0.4), rank c4Corresponding assignments of [0.4, 0.2), rank c5The corresponding assignment is [0.2, 0]。
4. The clastic rock entrapment hydrocarbon evaluation method based on risk probability of claim 3, wherein correlation analysis is performed on four sub-factors of seismic data quality and control degree, well-to-seismic relationship, structural interpretation and graph, reservoir prediction forward and backward modeling model in the entrapment condition, and values of the seismic data quality and the control degree are taken as values of the entrapment condition according to the correlation analysis result and judgment of experts on the sub-factor weight;
performing correlation analysis on three sub-factors of effective hydrocarbon source rocks, a migration channel and a space-time configuration in the hydrocarbon source and the filling condition, and taking an effective hydrocarbon source rock value, a migration channel value and a space-time configuration value as values of the hydrocarbon source and the filling condition according to a correlation analysis result;
performing correlation analysis on four sub-factors of sedimentary facies zone and type, reservoir thickness and distribution, reservoir rock characteristics and reservoir physical properties in the reservoir conditions, and taking sedimentary facies zone and type values multiplied by reservoir thickness and distribution values multiplied by reservoir rock characteristic values multiplied by reservoir physical properties values as values of the reservoir conditions according to correlation analysis results;
and performing correlation analysis on the three sub-factors of the overburden property, the lithologic shielding and the later-period damage in the storage condition, and taking the overburden property value, the lithologic shielding value and the later-period damage value as the values of the storage condition according to the correlation analysis result.
5. The method for evaluating hydrocarbon content in clastic rock traps based on risk probability as claimed in claim 4, wherein for the seismic data quality and control degree:
grade c1The corresponding standard is that the first-grade product rate of the section reaches 90% or above, all section phases can be continuously tracked, the breakpoint is clearly reflected, and the well-shaped measuring line control is realized;
grade c2The corresponding standard is that the first-grade product rate of the section is within the interval (80 percent and 90 percent), more than 80 percent of phases can be continuously tracked, the breakpoint is clearly reflected, and the section is controlled by a 'well' measuring line;
grade c3The corresponding standard is that the first-grade product rate of the section is within the interval (60 percent and 80 percent), more than 50 percent of phases can be continuously tracked, the breakpoint is clearly reflected,two measuring lines pass through the trap;
grade c4The corresponding standard is that the first-grade product rate of the section is within the interval (50 percent and 60 percent), more than 50 percent of phases can be continuously tracked, the breakpoint is clearly reflected, and a measuring line passes through a trap;
grade c5The corresponding standard is that the first-grade yield of the section is less than 50%, the continuously-tracked phase is less than 50%, the breakpoint is not clear, and no measuring line passes through the trap.
6. The method for evaluating hydrocarbon content in clastic rock traps based on risk probability as claimed in claim 4, wherein for said valid source rock:
grade c1The corresponding standard is that the drilling or geophysical prospecting data prove that the hydrocarbon source rock exists and can provide sufficient hydrocarbon source;
grade c2The corresponding standard is that the existence of hydrocarbon source rocks is confirmed by well drilling or geophysical prospecting data, so that a hydrocarbon source can be better provided;
grade c3The corresponding standard is that drilling or geophysical prospecting data prove that hydrocarbon source rocks possibly exist, and a hydrocarbon source can be better provided;
grade c4Corresponding criteria are that the drilling or geophysical data confirm that source rock may exist, and can provide part of the hydrocarbon source;
grade c5The corresponding standard is that the drilling or geophysical prospecting data prove that the source rock does not exist and can not be provided;
for the migration passage:
grade c1The corresponding standard is that the drilling or seismic data confirms that the migration channel exists and is an oil and gas migration dominant channel, including fracture, unconformity and extremely developed fracture;
grade c2The corresponding standard is that the drilling or seismic data confirms that the migration channel exists and is a favorable channel for oil and gas migration, including the development of fracture, unconformity and crack;
grade c3The corresponding standard is that the drilling or seismic data prove that the migration channel exists, and the development degree of fracture, unconformity and crack is low;
grade c4The corresponding standard is that the drilling or seismic data prove that the migration channel exists, and the development degree of fracture, unconformity and crack is low;
grade c5The corresponding standard is that the drilling or earthquake data proves that the fracture, the unconformity surface and the crack do not develop;
for the spatiotemporal configuration:
grade c1The corresponding standard is that the trap forming time is earlier than the hydrocarbon generation and expulsion peak period of the hydrocarbon source rock, and the trap is positioned on the oil and gas migration channel and can be efficiently filled;
grade c2The corresponding criteria are that the trap is formed earlier than or at the same time as the hydrocarbon source rock hydrocarbon generation and expulsion peak period, and the trap is positioned above the oil and gas migration channel but not at the most favorable position;
grade c3The corresponding standard is that the trap forming time is later than or equal to the hydrocarbon source rock hydrocarbon generation and expulsion peak period, and the trap may not be positioned on the oil and gas migration channel;
grade c4The corresponding standard is that the trap forming time is later than the hydrocarbon source rock hydrocarbon generation and expulsion peak period, and the trap is not positioned on the oil and gas migration channel;
grade c5The corresponding standard is that the trap forming time is later than the hydrocarbon source rock hydrocarbon generation and expulsion peak period, and the traps do not belong to the same oil gas system.
7. The method for evaluating hydrocarbon content in clastic rock entrapment based on risk probability of claim 4, wherein for the sedimentary facies zone and type:
grade c1The corresponding standard is that according to well drilling and reservoir prediction, an effective reservoir is underwater diversion river sedimentation;
grade c2The corresponding standard is that according to well drilling and reservoir prediction, an effective reservoir is deposited by a estuary dam;
grade c3The corresponding standard is that according to well drilling and reservoir prediction, an effective reservoir is deposition among riverways;
grade c4The corresponding standard is that according to well drilling and reservoir prediction, the effective reservoir can be underwater diversion river channel and estuary dam deposition；
Grade c5The corresponding standard is that no effective reservoir or lack of effective reservoir is predicted according to the well drilling and the reservoir;
for the reservoir thickness and distribution:
grade c1The corresponding standard is that the thickness of the reservoir is more than or equal to 40m, and the thickness of the single sand body is in the interval of 10m and 15m]Within;
grade c2The corresponding standards are that the thickness of the reservoir is within the interval [20m, 40m ], and the thickness of the single sand body is within the interval [6m, 10 m);
grade c3The corresponding standards are that the thickness of the reservoir is within the interval [10m, 20m ], and the thickness of the single sand body is within the interval [4m, 6 m);
grade c4The corresponding standard is that the thickness of the reservoir is less than 10m, and the thickness of the single sand body is less than 4 m;
grade c5The corresponding standard is that the thickness of the reservoir is smaller than a lower limit value set by resource evaluation, and the lower limit value is an economic limit lower limit determined by the engineering technology level and economic conditions;
for the reservoir rock signature:
grade c1The corresponding standard is that the maturity of the rock debris sandstone component is more than 1.5, and the rock debris sandstone component is fine and is subjected to strong erosion and medium-pressure compaction and medium-pressure erosion;
grade c2The corresponding standard is that the maturity of the rock debris sandstone component is more than 1.5, the rock debris sandstone component is fine, and the rock debris sandstone component is compacted by medium pressure and is weak in corrosion;
grade c3The corresponding standards are that the maturity of the rock debris sandstone component is less than or equal to 1.5, the rock debris sandstone component is ground and fine, and medium-pressure compaction and strong cementation are carried out;
grade c4The corresponding standards are that the maturity of the rock debris sandstone component is less than or equal to 1.5, and the rock debris sandstone component is powdered, fine and moderately compacted and strongly cemented;
grade c5The corresponding standard is that the maturity of the ingredients of the rock debris sandstone is low, the ingredients of the debris are far away from the final stable sediment, and the particles are strongly compacted and strongly cemented;
for the reservoir properties:
grade c1The corresponding standards are that the porosity of the reservoir is more than 12 percent, and the permeability is more than 0.4 MD;
grade c2The corresponding criterion is that the reservoir porosity lies in the interval [ 9%, 12%]Within the interval [0.1MD, 0.4MD ] permeability]Within;
grade c3The corresponding criteria are reservoir porosity within interval [ 7%, 9%), permeability within interval [0.06MD, 0.1 MD);
grade c4The corresponding criteria are reservoir porosity within the interval [ 4%, 7%) and permeability within the interval [0.01MD, 0.06 MD);
grade c5The corresponding standard is that when the physical property of the reservoir is smaller than the lower limit value set by resource evaluation, the lower limit value is the lower limit of economic limit determined by both engineering technology level and economic condition.
8. The method for evaluating hydrocarbon-bearing property of clastic rock traps based on risk probability of claim 4, wherein for said overburden property:
grade c1The corresponding standard is that the drilling and seismic data show that the cover layer is determined to exist;
grade c2The corresponding standard is that the drilling and seismic data indicate that the cover layer exists;
grade c3Corresponding criteria are that well and seismic data indicate that cap layers may be present;
grade c4The corresponding criteria are that the drilling and seismic data indicate that the cap layer may be missing;
grade c5The corresponding standard is that the drilling and seismic data show that the cap layer is determined to be missing;
for the lithologic occlusion:
grade c1The corresponding standards are that the rocky property of the overburden is good, the blocking property of the overburden at the top of the trap is good, and the lateral blocking property of the reservoir is good;
grade c2The corresponding standards are that the rocky property of the overburden is good, the blocking property of the overburden at the top of the trap is good, and the lateral blocking property of the reservoir is good;
grade c3The corresponding standards are that the cap rock property is better, the blocking property of the cap layer at the top of the trap is better, and the lateral blocking property of the reservoir is better;
grade c4The corresponding standards are that the difference between the compactness degree of the cover layer and the reservoir is not large, the enclosed top cover layer may be blocked or not blocked, and the difference between the compactness degree of the reservoir and the non-reservoir is small, so that the reservoir cannot be completely blocked;
grade c5The corresponding standards are poor lithology of the cap layer, poor blocking performance of the cap layer at the top of the trap and poor lateral blocking performance of the reservoir;
for the late destruction:
grade c1The corresponding standards are that the structural activity strength is weak, the cover layer is not cracked, and the later-period damage effect is weak;
grade c2The corresponding standards are that the structural activity strength is weak, the cover layer is not broken, and the later-period damage effect is strong;
grade c3The corresponding standards are that the structural activity strength is strong, the cover layer is broken, and the later-period damage effect is strong;
grade c4The corresponding standard is that the structural activity strength is strong, and the later destructive effect is strong;
grade c5The corresponding standards are that the strength of the structural activity is strong, and the later destructive effect is strong.
9. The method for evaluating hydrocarbon content in clastic rock traps based on risk probability as claimed in any one of claims 4-8, wherein the standard for determining each level of each sub-factor is determined by multiple experts together, the sub-factors can be described by using qualitative language, and when the opinions of the experts are inconsistent, the determination is performed according to the principle that minority is subject to majority.
10. The method for evaluating hydrocarbon content in clastic rock traps based on risk probability as claimed in any one of claims 1-8, wherein said fourth step is followed by the fifth step of: through the calculation result of the hydrocarbon-containing probability of the continental clastic rock trap and the statistical analysis of the drilling success rate of the pre-exploration well, 5 risk levels are divided, and the risk levels are respectively extremely low risk traps: the probability of containing oil gas is more than 0.5, 1; low risk entrapment: oil gas probability [0.25, 0.5); intermediate risk traps: oil gas containing probability [0.1, 0.25); high risk entrapment: oil gas containing probability [0.05, 0.1); extremely high risk traps: oil gas probability [0, 0.05).
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