CN112149276A - Method and device for calculating defense probability of batch flight path - Google Patents

Method and device for calculating defense probability of batch flight path Download PDF

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Publication number
CN112149276A
CN112149276A CN202010848465.8A CN202010848465A CN112149276A CN 112149276 A CN112149276 A CN 112149276A CN 202010848465 A CN202010848465 A CN 202010848465A CN 112149276 A CN112149276 A CN 112149276A
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probability
missile
cruise missile
cruise
radar
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干哲
肖永辉
王勇
陈骁
杨海燕
蔡红卿
王磊
尹冀锋
王晶
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Pla 93114
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    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06FELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
    • G06F30/00Computer-aided design [CAD]
    • G06F30/20Design optimisation, verification or simulation
    • FMECHANICAL ENGINEERING; LIGHTING; HEATING; WEAPONS; BLASTING
    • F41WEAPONS
    • F41HARMOUR; ARMOURED TURRETS; ARMOURED OR ARMED VEHICLES; MEANS OF ATTACK OR DEFENCE, e.g. CAMOUFLAGE, IN GENERAL
    • F41H11/00Defence installations; Defence devices
    • F41H11/02Anti-aircraft or anti-guided missile or anti-torpedo defence installations or systems

Abstract

The application provides a method and a device for calculating the penetration probability of a batch flight path, wherein the method comprises the following steps: the method comprises the steps of obtaining batch flight paths of cruise missiles, determining radar finding probability of each flight path of the cruise missiles passing through each flight path according to a radar detection model, determining ground-to-air missile killing probability of each flight path of the cruise missiles passing through each flight path according to a ground-to-air missile interception model and channel limitation, determining antiaircraft gun damage probability according to an antiaircraft gun damage model and channel limitation, determining the penetration probability of each flight path of the cruise missiles passing through each flight path according to the radar finding probability, the ground-to-air missile killing probability and the antiaircraft gun damage probability, determining the penetration probability of each flight path according to the penetration probability of each flight path in each flight path, and further determining the whole penetration probability of the cruise missiles passing through the batch flight paths. Therefore, the threat capability of the cruise missile is quantified through the enemy air defense system, and the penetration probability of the batch flight path of the cruise missile is accurately calculated.

Description

Method and device for calculating defense probability of batch flight path
Technical Field
The application relates to the technical field of penetration probabilities of cruise missiles, in particular to a method and a device for calculating penetration probabilities of batched flight paths.
Background
In the information-based war, air attacks and anti-air attacks have become a main battle mode of the war. The types of the air attack targets present diversified trends, meanwhile, the air attack targets present the characteristics of multi-batch, multi-azimuth and continuous saturated attack, and in addition, a plurality of non-attack targets exist in the air.
At present, enemy early warning radars, ground-to-air missile guidance radars, ground-to-air missile launching equipment, antiaircraft guns and the like are networked, under the coordination and control of a command control system, cruise missiles in flight are subjected to uninterrupted netted detection and tracking, high-quality continuous early warning and indication information is provided for the blocked weapons of the cruise missiles as early as possible, and the fire-killing areas of the cruise missiles are mutually connected, overlapped and supplemented. Therefore, the accuracy of threat factor quantification in the flight process of the cruise missile is very important.
Disclosure of Invention
The present application is directed to solving, at least to some extent, one of the technical problems in the related art.
Therefore, the method for calculating the penetration probability of the batch flight path is provided, and the technical problem that quantification accuracy of threat factors in the flight process of the cruise missile is low in the prior art is solved.
An embodiment of an aspect of the present application provides a method for calculating a penetration probability of a batch flight path, including:
acquiring a batch track of a cruise missile;
according to the radar detection model, determining the radar discovery probability of the radar for the cruise missile to pass through each flight path in each track;
determining the ground-to-air missile killing probability of the cruise missile through each flight segment in each flight path by the ground-to-air missile intercepting unit according to the ground-to-air missile intercepting model and the channel limit;
determining the damage probability of the antiaircraft gun interception unit to the cruise missile passing through each flight segment in each flight path according to the antiaircraft gun damage model and the channel limit;
determining the penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through each flight segment in each flight path according to the radar discovery probability, the ground-air missile killing probability and the antiaircraft gun damage probability;
determining the penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through each track according to the penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through each flight segment in each track;
and determining the integral penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through the batch flight path according to the penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through each flight path.
The method for calculating the penetration probability of the batch flight paths comprises the steps of obtaining the batch flight paths of cruise missiles, determining the radar discovery probability of each flight path of each cruise missile passing through each flight path by a radar according to a radar detection model, determining the ground-to-air missile damage probability of each flight path of each cruise missile passing through each flight path by a ground-to-air missile interception unit according to a ground-to-air missile interception model and a channel limit, determining the antiaircraft damage probability of each flight path of each cruise missile passing through each flight path by an antiaircraft interception unit according to an antiaircraft damage model and a channel limit, determining the penetration probability of each flight path of each cruise missile passing through each flight path by the cruise missiles according to the radar discovery probability, the ground-to-air missile damage probability and the antiaircraft damage probability, determining the penetration probability of each cruise missile passing through each flight path according to the penetration probability of each flight path of each cruise missile passing through each flight path, and determining the integral penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through the batch flight path according to the penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through each flight path. Therefore, the threat capability of the cruise missile is quantified through the enemy air defense system, and the penetration probability of the batch flight path of the cruise missile is accurately calculated.
In another aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a device for calculating a penetration probability of a batch flight path, including:
the acquisition module is used for acquiring the batch flight path of the cruise missile;
the first determining module is used for determining the radar discovery probability of the radar for the cruise missile to pass through each flight path in each flight path according to the radar detection model;
the second determining module is used for determining the ground-to-air missile killing probability of the cruise missile through each flight segment in each flight path by the ground-to-air missile intercepting unit according to the ground-to-air missile intercepting model and the channel limit;
the third determining module is used for determining the damage probability of the antiaircraft gun of the cruise missile on each flight segment in each flight path by the antiaircraft gun intercepting unit according to the antiaircraft gun damage model and the channel limit;
the fourth determination module is used for determining the penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through each flight segment in each flight path according to the radar discovery probability, the ground-air missile killing probability and the antiaircraft gun damage probability;
the fifth determining module is used for determining the penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through each track according to the penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through each flight segment in each track;
and the sixth determining module is used for determining the integral penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through the batch flight path according to the penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through each flight path.
The device for calculating the penetration probability of the batch flight paths determines the penetration probability of the cruise missile through each flight path according to the radar detection model, determines the radar discovery probability of the cruise missile on each flight path section of the cruise missile through each flight path by the radar, determines the ground-air missile damage probability of each flight path section of the cruise missile through each flight path by the ground-air missile interception unit according to the ground-air missile interception model and the channel limit, determines the antiaircraft damage probability of each flight path section of the cruise missile through each flight path by the antiaircraft interception unit according to the radar discovery probability, the ground-air missile damage probability and the antiaircraft damage probability, determines the penetration probability of each flight path section of the cruise missile through each flight path according to the penetration probability of the cruise missile through each flight path, and determining the integral penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through the batch flight path according to the penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through each flight path. Therefore, the threat capability of the cruise missile is quantified through the enemy air defense system, and the penetration probability of the batch flight path of the cruise missile is accurately calculated.
Additional aspects and advantages of the present application will be set forth in part in the description which follows and, in part, will be obvious from the description, or may be learned by practice of the present application.
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The foregoing and/or additional aspects and advantages of the present application will become apparent and readily appreciated from the following description of the embodiments, taken in conjunction with the accompanying drawings of which:
fig. 1 is a schematic flowchart of a method for calculating a batched flight path break-in probability according to an embodiment of the present disclosure;
fig. 2 is a schematic structural diagram of a device for calculating a batched flight path break-in probability according to an embodiment of the present disclosure.
Detailed Description
Reference will now be made in detail to embodiments of the present application, examples of which are illustrated in the accompanying drawings, wherein like or similar reference numerals refer to the same or similar elements or elements having the same or similar function throughout. The embodiments described below with reference to the drawings are exemplary and intended to be used for explaining the present application and should not be construed as limiting the present application.
The following describes a method and an apparatus for calculating a batched flight path breach probability according to an embodiment of the present application with reference to the drawings.
Fig. 1 is a schematic flowchart of a method for calculating a batched flight path break-through probability according to an embodiment of the present disclosure.
As shown in fig. 1, the method for calculating the defense probability of the batch of tracks may include the following steps:
step 101, obtaining a batch track of a cruise missile.
And step 102, determining the radar discovery probability of the radar for the cruise missile to pass through each flight segment in each track according to the radar detection model.
The radar detection model can be set by a user according to requirements, so that the radar detection model meeting the requirements of the user can be obtained.
According to the method and the device, after the batch track of the cruise missile is obtained, whether the cruise missile is in a radar detection area or not can be judged according to the track of the cruise missile.
Under a possible condition, the cruise missile is determined to be in a radar detection area according to the flight path of the cruise missile, and the radar discovery probability of the radar for the cruise missile to pass through each flight path in each flight path can be determined according to a radar detection model.
Wherein the radar discovery probability comprises an instantaneous discovery probability and a cumulative discovery probability.
The instantaneous discovery probability, also called radar working frame discovery probability, is the probability that a cruise missile is judged to exist by one-time scanning of a radar. For the radar of the conventional mechanical scanning system, the working frame period is the scanning period (generally expressed by RPM, and the rotating speed per minute); for phased array systems, the working frame period corresponds to the beam scheduling period.
The calculation of the instantaneous discovery probability of the radar is to give the discovery probability value of the radar to the cruise missile in the working frame period according to the working frame period of the given radar (such as a search radar and an air-ground missile guidance radar) and the real-time position of the cruise missile, and by combining the scanning characteristics of the radar antenna (for the machine-scanning radar, the initial antenna pointing direction and the wave beam scanning rule are included; for the phased array system, the wave beam scheduling period and the wave beam residence time are included).
According to the method and the device, the relative position of the cruise missile and the radar is determined according to the real-time positions of the radar and the cruise missile, the radar scattering sectional area of the cruise missile is obtained, the signal-to-noise ratio of a radar receiving end is determined according to the relative position of the cruise missile and the radar scattering sectional area of the cruise missile, and then the instantaneous discovery probability of the radar in each detection time of the cruise missile in each flight path is determined according to the signal-to-noise ratio of the radar receiving end.
In the radar beam scanning process, when a target falls into a radar lobe, the cruise missile is in energy contact with the radar, and whether a target signal can be detected on a radar fluorescent screen depends on the ratio of signal energy to noise energy.
According to the statistical characteristics of noise and signals passing through a radar receiver, the calculation formula of the radar instantaneous discovery probability during monopulse detection is as follows:
Figure BDA0002643901520000041
wherein, PdFor radar instantaneous probability of discovery, PfaThe false alarm probability is expressed, and S/N is the signal-to-noise ratio of the radar receiving end. According to the formula, under the condition of giving false alarm probability, the instantaneous discovery probability of the radar is calculated, and the key is to calculate the signal-to-noise ratio or the signal-to-interference ratio of the radar receiving end.
The calculation formula of the signal-to-noise ratio of the radar receiving end is as follows:
Figure BDA0002643901520000042
wherein, (S/N)minMaximum detection range R given for radar performance manualmax0Discovery probability PdThen, the corresponding minimum detectable signal-to-noise ratio; sigma0Maximum detection range R given for radar performance manualmax0Discovery probability PdAnd the corresponding target radar scattering cross section area.
When the cruise missile flies through a radar detection area according to a certain route shortcut, the cruise missile can be subjected to multiple detections by the radar, the instantaneous finding probabilities are different due to different distances, directions and radar scattering sectional areas in each detection, and the instantaneous finding probabilities can be comprehensively considered to reflect the detection condition of the whole route. The cruise missile detected by the radar in a single scanning cannot be regarded as the radar intercepting target, but the cruise missile is required to be detected at least for multiple times continuously to be regarded as the intercepting target, and the cumulative probability of detection of each time is generally considered as the cumulative finding probability.
In this application, the instantaneous probability of finding when surveying the missile that cruises with the radar each time inputs computational formula to obtain the radar and to cruise the accumulation probability of finding of missile, wherein, the computational formula is:
Figure BDA0002643901520000043
wherein, PDFor cumulative discovery probability, P, of radar to cruise missilediThe detection probability is the instantaneous discovery probability of the radar in the ith detection of the target, M is the detection frequency of the radar on the cruise missile, and i is a positive integer.
And 103, determining the ground-to-air missile killing probability of the cruise missile through each flight segment in each flight path by the ground-to-air missile intercepting unit according to the ground-to-air missile intercepting model and the channel limit.
In the application, the mapping relation between the flight speed of the cruise missile and the vertical and horizontal killing areas of the ground-air missile is learned by the ground-air missile interception model. The ground-to-air missile interception model is used for calculating the ground-to-air missile killing probability according to the weapon system killing area parameters, the vertical killing area and the horizontal killing area of the ground-to-air missile.
The parameters of the weapon system killing area can be a radar scattering sectional area value of the cruise missile, the maximum detection distance of an air-ground missile guidance radar, the flight speed of the cruise missile, the average speed of an interception missile and the reaction time of the air-ground missile weapon.
According to the method, the blocking conditions are distributed according to the sequence of the incoming cruise missile, one channel is distributed for blocking when a target channel is idle, and after the target channel exceeds a blocking area, the occupied channel is released for blocking of the subsequent cruise missiles. When a new cruise missile comes, but no target channel is available, interception cannot be carried out.
In the embodiment of the application, the depth of a killing area of the ground-air missile can be determined according to the flight height of the cruise missile and the horizontal killing area data of the ground-air missile; determining the number of times of interception of the killing area of the ground-air missile on the cruise missile according to the depth of the killing area of the ground-air missile; acquiring the single-shot killing probability of the air-ground missile on the cruise missile; and determining the ground-air missile killing probability of the ground-air missile intercepting unit to the cruise missile through each flight segment in each flight path according to the intercepting times and the single-shot killing probability of the ground-air missile in the killing area of the ground-air missile to the cruise missile.
When the navigation shortcut of the cruise missile is larger than or equal to the boundary navigation shortcut and is smaller than or equal to the maximum navigation shortcut, the depth of the killing area of the ground-air missile is as follows:
Figure BDA0002643901520000051
wherein h is the depth of the killing area of the ground-air missile; dsyA far horizontal distance for a killing zone; p is the navigation shortcut of the cruise missile; q. q.smaxIs the target maximum way angle;
when the navigation shortcut of the cruise missile is larger than or equal to zero and smaller than or equal to the boundary navigation shortcut, the depth h of the killing area of the ground-air missile is determined according to the value of h ', wherein h' is the estimated value of the depth of the killing area of the ground-air missile:
h'=dsy-dsj
wherein h is the depth of the killing area of the ground-air missile; dsyA far horizontal distance for a killing zone; dsjThe horizontal distance is close to the boundary of the killing area.
The calculation formula for determining the air-ground missile killing probability of the cruise missile passing through the air-ground missile killing area is as follows:
Figure BDA0002643901520000052
wherein p is1Intercepting cruise missile once for ground-air missileThe probability of killing; n is a radical ofsThe number of interception times of the ground-air missile to the cruise missile is determined.
The calculation formula of the killing probability of the air-ground missile for the cruise missile to intercept once is as follows:
p1=1-(1-p0)n
wherein p is0The single-shot killing probability of the ground-air missile is obtained, and n is the number of the missiles.
And step 104, determining the damage probability of the antiaircraft gun interception unit to the cruise missile passing through each flight segment in each flight path according to the antiaircraft gun damage model and the channel limit.
Wherein, the antiaircraft gun damage model learns the mapping relation between the effective range and the effective shooting height of the antiaircraft gun and the enveloping range of the vertical effective fire power area and the horizontal effective fire power area of the antiaircraft gun.
According to the method and the device, after the model of the antiaircraft gun is obtained, the horizontal radius table of the effective fire area of the antiaircraft gun can be inquired to determine the radius of the intercepting unit of the antiaircraft gun of the model, and further, the effective fire depth of the antiaircraft gun intercepting unit to the cruise missile is determined according to the effective radius of the intercepting unit of the antiaircraft gun and the route shortcut of the cruise missile to the deployment point of the antiaircraft gun.
For example, the effective fire depth of the antiaircraft gun intercepting unit to the cruise missile can be calculated by adopting the following formula:
Figure BDA0002643901520000061
wherein h is the effective fire depth of the antiaircraft gun intercepting unit to the cruise missile; daThe radius of the antiaircraft gun interception unit at the flying height H of the cruise missile; and P is the route shortcut of the cruise missile route to the deployment point of the antiaircraft gun.
Optionally, if the cruise missile is determined to be in the antiaircraft gun intercepting unit, determining the damage probability of the cruise missile on the antiaircraft gun intercepting unit.
According to the method and the device, after the times of simultaneous fire of each fire unit and the damage probability of one-time shooting of each fire unit of the antiaircraft gun are obtained, the damage probability of the antiaircraft gun can be determined according to the times of simultaneous fire of each fire unit of the antiaircraft gun and the damage probability of one-time shooting of each fire unit; wherein, the calculation formula is as follows:
PSS=1-(1-PJH)n
wherein, PSSThe probability of damage to an antiaircraft gun; pJHThe damage probability of one-time shooting for each fire unit of the antiaircraft gun; n is the number of simultaneous fire per fire unit of the antiaircraft gun.
Wherein, the calculation formula of the damage probability of each fire unit shot of the antiaircraft gun is as follows:
PJH=aPDD+(1-a)PMZ
wherein, PJHThe damage probability of one-time shooting for each fire unit of the antiaircraft gun; pMZIs the single shot hit probability; a is a correlation correction coefficient; pDDThe damage probability of multiple single shots is calculated according to the following formula:
Figure BDA0002643901520000062
where ω is the average number of bound shots, and m is the number of consecutive or homogeneous shots.
And 105, determining the penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through each flight segment in each flight path according to the radar discovery probability, the ground-air missile killing probability and the antiaircraft gun damage probability.
In the embodiment of the application, after the finding probability of the cruise missile passing through each flight segment in each flight path, the ground-air missile killing probability of the cruise missile passing through each flight segment in each flight path by the ground-air missile intercepting unit and the antiaircraft damage probability of the cruise missile passing through each flight segment in each flight path by the antiaircraft intercepting unit are determined, the penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through the same flight segment in the flight path can be determined according to the finding probability of the radar in the same flight path, the ground-air missile killing probability and the antiaircraft damage probability.
As an example, the sudden defense probability of the cruise missile at the qth flight segment is calculated by the following formula:
ppen,q=1-pR,q[1-(1-pSAM,q)(1-pAAA,q)]
wherein p ispen,qThe penetration probability of the cruise missile in the qth flight segment; p is a radical ofR,qFinding the probability of the cruise missile in the q-th flight segment by the radar; p is a radical ofSAM,qThe killing probability of the ground-air missile of the cruise missile in the qth flight segment; p is a radical ofAAA,qThe probability of damage to the antiaircraft gun of the cruise missile in the qth flight segment.
And 106, determining the penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through each track according to the penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through each flight segment in each track.
In the embodiment of the application, after the penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through each flight path in each flight path is determined, the penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through each flight path in one flight path can be superposed to obtain the penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through the flight path.
As an example, the flight path of the cruise missile comprises a plurality of flight segments, and the penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through each flight path is calculated according to the following formula:
Figure BDA0002643901520000071
wherein, PpenThe penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through each flight path; q is the total number of the flight sections included in the flight path of the cruise missile; p is a radical ofpen,qAnd (4) the penetration probability of the cruise missile in the qth flight segment.
The calculation formula of the penetration probability of the cruise missile in the qth flight segment is as follows:
ppen,q=1-pR,q[1-(1-pSAM,q)(1-pAAA,q)]
wherein p ispen,qThe penetration probability of the cruise missile in the qth flight segment; p is a radical ofR,qFinding the probability of the cruise missile in the q-th flight segment by the radar; p is a radical ofSAM,qThe killing probability of the ground-air missile of the cruise missile in the qth flight segment; p is a radical ofAAA,qThe probability of damage to the antiaircraft gun of the cruise missile in the qth flight segment.
The calculation formula of the radar discovery probability of the cruise missile in the qth flight section is as follows:
Figure BDA0002643901520000081
wherein p isR,qFinding the probability of the cruise missile in the q-th flight segment by the radar; m is the total number of radars in the qth flight segment; p is a radical ofR,q,mFinding probability of the mth radar in the qth flight segment for the cruise missile;
the calculation formula of the killing probability of the air-ground missile of the cruise missile in the qth flight segment is as follows:
Figure BDA0002643901520000082
wherein p isSAM,qThe killing probability of the ground-air missile of the cruise missile in the qth flight segment; n is the total number of ground-air missiles in the qth flight leg; p is a radical ofSAM,q,nThe killing probability of the nth ground-air missile in the qth flight segment for the cruise missile;
the calculation formula of the antiaircraft gun damage probability of the cruise missile in the qth flight segment is as follows:
Figure BDA0002643901520000083
wherein p isAAA,q,sThe damage probability of the s-th antiaircraft gun of the cruise missile in the q-th flight segment; and S is the total number of antiaircraft guns in the qth flight segment of the cruise missile.
And step 107, determining the integral defense probability of the cruise missile passing through the batch flight path according to the defense probability of the cruise missile passing through each flight path.
In the embodiment of the application, after the penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through each flight path is determined, the average value of the penetration probability of a plurality of flight paths in one batch can be calculated, and the average value of the penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through the plurality of flight paths in the batch of flight paths is used as the integral penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through the batch of flight paths.
The method for calculating the penetration probability of the batch flight paths comprises the steps of obtaining the batch flight paths of cruise missiles, determining the radar discovery probability of each flight path of each cruise missile passing through each flight path by a radar according to a radar detection model, determining the ground-to-air missile damage probability of each flight path of each cruise missile passing through each flight path by a ground-to-air missile interception unit according to a ground-to-air missile interception model and a channel limit, determining the antiaircraft damage probability of each flight path of each cruise missile passing through each flight path by an antiaircraft interception unit according to an antiaircraft damage model and a channel limit, determining the penetration probability of each flight path of each cruise missile passing through each flight path by the cruise missiles according to the radar discovery probability, the ground-to-air missile damage probability and the antiaircraft damage probability, determining the penetration probability of each cruise missile passing through each flight path according to the penetration probability of each flight path of each cruise missile passing through each flight path, and determining the integral penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through the batch flight path according to the penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through each flight path. Therefore, the threat capability of the cruise missile is quantified through the enemy air defense system, and the penetration probability of the batch flight path of the cruise missile is accurately calculated.
In order to implement the above embodiments, the present application further provides a device for calculating a batched flight path defense probability.
Fig. 2 is a schematic structural diagram of a device for calculating a batched flight path break-in probability according to an embodiment of the present disclosure.
As shown in fig. 2, the device for calculating the breach of defense probability of the flight path of the batch may include: an acquisition module 210, a first determination module 220, a second determination module 230, a third determination module 240, a fourth determination module 250, a fifth determination module 260, and a sixth determination module 270.
The obtaining module 210 is used for obtaining the batch flight path of the cruise missile;
the first determining module 220 is used for determining the radar discovery probability of the radar for the cruise missile to pass through each flight segment in each track according to the radar detection model;
the second determining module 230 is configured to determine, according to the ground-to-air missile interception model and the channel limit, a ground-to-air missile killing probability of the cruise missile by the ground-to-air missile interception unit through each flight segment in each flight path;
a third determining module 240, configured to determine, according to the antiaircraft gun damage model and the channel limit, an antiaircraft gun damage probability of the cruise missile on passing through each flight segment in each flight path by the antiaircraft gun intercepting unit;
a fourth determining module 250, configured to determine, according to the radar discovery probability, the ground-air missile killing probability, and the antiaircraft gun damage probability, a penetration probability that the cruise missile passes through each flight segment in each flight path;
a fifth determining module 260, configured to determine, according to the penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through each flight path in each flight path, the penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through each flight path;
and a sixth determining module 270, configured to determine, according to the penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through each flight path, the overall penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through the batch flight path.
Optionally, the radar discovery probability includes an instantaneous discovery probability and a cumulative discovery probability, and the first determining module 220 may be further configured to:
determining the relative positions of the cruise missile and the radar according to the real-time positions of the radar and the cruise missile;
acquiring the radar scattering sectional area of the cruise missile;
determining the signal-to-noise ratio of a radar receiving end according to the relative position of the cruise missile and the radar scattering cross section area of the cruise missile;
determining the instantaneous discovery probability of the radar for each detection of the cruise missile according to the signal-to-noise ratio of the radar receiving end;
inputting the instantaneous discovery probability of the radar to the cruise missile during each detection of the radar to the cruise missile into a calculation formula to obtain the accumulated discovery probability of the radar to the cruise missile, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0002643901520000091
wherein, PDIs a mineReach the cumulative discovery probability, p, of cruise missilesdiThe method is characterized in that the instantaneous discovery probability of the radar in the ith detection of the cruise missile is shown, M is the detection frequency of the radar on the cruise missile, and i is a positive integer.
Optionally, the second determining module 230 may be further configured to:
determining the depth of a killing area of the ground-air missile according to the flight height of the cruise missile and the horizontal killing area data of the ground-air missile;
determining the number of times of interception of the killing area of the ground-air missile on the cruise missile according to the depth of the killing area of the ground-air missile;
acquiring the single-shot killing probability of the air-ground missile on the cruise missile;
and determining the ground-air missile killing probability of the ground-air missile intercepting unit to the cruise missile through each flight segment in each flight path according to the intercepting times and the single-shot killing probability of the ground-air missile in the killing area of the ground-air missile to the cruise missile.
Optionally, the second determining module 230 may be further configured to:
when the navigation shortcut of the cruise missile is larger than or equal to the boundary navigation shortcut and is smaller than or equal to the maximum navigation shortcut, the depth of the killing area of the ground-air missile is as follows:
Figure BDA0002643901520000101
wherein h is the depth of the killing area of the ground-air missile; dsyA far horizontal distance for a killing zone; p is the navigation shortcut of the cruise missile; q. q.smaxIs the target maximum way angle.
When the navigation shortcut of the cruise missile is larger than or equal to zero and smaller than or equal to the boundary navigation shortcut, the depth h of the killing area of the ground-air missile is determined according to the value of h ', wherein h' is the estimated value of the depth of the killing area of the ground-air missile:
h'=dsy-dsj
wherein h is the depth of the killing area of the ground-air missile; dsyA far horizontal distance for a killing zone; dsjThe horizontal distance is close to the boundary of the killing area.
Optionally, a calculation formula for determining the probability of killing the cruise missile by the ground-to-air missile intercepting unit through each flight segment in each flight path is as follows:
Figure BDA0002643901520000102
wherein p is1A killing probability of one-time interception of the cruise missile for the ground-air missile; n is a radical ofsThe number of times of intercepting the cruise missile for the killing area of the ground-air missile;
the calculation formula of the killing probability of the air-ground missile for the cruise missile to intercept once is as follows:
p1=1-(1-p0)n
wherein p is0The single-shot killing probability of the ground-air missile is obtained, and n is the number of the missiles.
Optionally, the third determining module 240 may be further configured to:
acquiring the number of simultaneous fire of each fire unit of an antiaircraft gun and the destruction probability of one-time fire of each fire unit;
determining the damage probability of the antiaircraft gun according to the number of simultaneous fire in each fire unit of the antiaircraft gun and the damage probability of one-time firing in each fire unit; wherein, the calculation formula is as follows:
PSS=1-(1-PJH)n
wherein, PSSThe probability of damage to an antiaircraft gun; pJHThe damage probability of one-time shooting for each fire unit of the antiaircraft gun; n is the number of simultaneous fire per fire unit of the antiaircraft gun.
Alternatively, the calculation formula of the destruction probability of one shot per unit of fire of the antiaircraft gun is as follows:
PJH=aPDD+(1-a)PMZ
wherein, PJHThe damage probability of one-time shooting for each fire unit of the antiaircraft gun; pMZIs the single shot hit probability; a is a correlation correction coefficient; pDDThe damage probability of multiple single shots is calculated according to the following formula:
Figure BDA0002643901520000111
where ω is the average number of bound shots, and m is the number of consecutive or homogeneous shots.
Optionally, the flight path of the cruise missile includes a plurality of flight segments, and the calculation formula for determining the penetration probability of the cruise missile through each flight path according to the penetration probability of the cruise missile through each flight segment in each flight path is as follows:
Figure BDA0002643901520000112
wherein, PpenThe penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through each flight path; q is the total number of the flight sections included in the flight path of the cruise missile; p is a radical ofpen,qThe penetration probability of the cruise missile in the qth flight segment;
the calculation formula of the penetration probability of the cruise missile in the qth flight segment is as follows:
ppen,q=1-pR,q[1-(1-pSAM,q)(1-pAAA,q)]
wherein p ispen,qThe penetration probability of the cruise missile in the qth flight segment; p is a radical ofR,qFinding the probability of the cruise missile in the q-th flight segment by the radar; p is a radical ofSAM,qThe killing probability of the ground-air missile of the cruise missile in the qth flight segment; p is a radical ofAAA,qThe probability of damage to the antiaircraft gun of the cruise missile in the qth flight segment;
the calculation formula of the radar discovery probability of the cruise missile in the qth flight section is as follows:
Figure BDA0002643901520000113
wherein p isR,qFinding the probability of the cruise missile in the q-th flight segment by the radar; m is the total number of radars in the qth flight segment; p is a radical ofR,q,mFinding probability of the mth radar in the qth flight segment for the cruise missile;
the calculation formula of the killing probability of the air-ground missile of the cruise missile in the qth flight segment is as follows:
Figure BDA0002643901520000114
wherein p isSAM,qThe killing probability of the ground-air missile of the cruise missile in the qth flight segment; n is the total number of ground-air missiles in the qth flight leg; p is a radical ofSAM,q,nThe killing probability of the nth ground-air missile in the qth flight segment for the cruise missile.
The calculation formula of the antiaircraft gun damage probability of the cruise missile in the qth flight segment is as follows:
Figure BDA0002643901520000115
wherein p isAAA,q,sThe damage probability of the s-th antiaircraft gun of the cruise missile in the q-th flight segment; and S is the total number of antiaircraft guns in the qth flight segment of the cruise missile.
The device for calculating the penetration probability of the batch flight paths determines the penetration probability of the cruise missile through each flight path according to the radar detection model, determines the radar discovery probability of the cruise missile on each flight path section of the cruise missile through each flight path by the radar, determines the ground-air missile damage probability of each flight path section of the cruise missile through each flight path by the ground-air missile interception unit according to the ground-air missile interception model and the channel limit, determines the antiaircraft damage probability of each flight path section of the cruise missile through each flight path by the antiaircraft interception unit according to the radar discovery probability, the ground-air missile damage probability and the antiaircraft damage probability, determines the penetration probability of each flight path section of the cruise missile through each flight path according to the penetration probability of the cruise missile through each flight path, and determining the integral penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through the batch flight path according to the penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through each flight path. Therefore, the threat capability of the cruise missile is quantified through the enemy air defense system, and the penetration probability of the batch flight path of the cruise missile is accurately calculated.
In the description herein, reference to the description of the term "one embodiment," "some embodiments," "an example," "a specific example," or "some examples," etc., means that a particular feature, structure, material, or characteristic described in connection with the embodiment or example is included in at least one embodiment or example of the application. In this specification, the schematic representations of the terms used above are not necessarily intended to refer to the same embodiment or example. Furthermore, the particular features, structures, materials, or characteristics described may be combined in any suitable manner in any one or more embodiments or examples. Furthermore, various embodiments or examples and features of different embodiments or examples described in this specification can be combined and combined by one skilled in the art without contradiction.
Furthermore, the terms "first", "second" and "first" are used for descriptive purposes only and are not to be construed as indicating or implying relative importance or implicitly indicating the number of technical features indicated. Thus, a feature defined as "first" or "second" may explicitly or implicitly include at least one such feature. In the description of the present application, "plurality" means at least two, e.g., two, three, etc., unless specifically limited otherwise.
Any process or method descriptions in flow charts or otherwise described herein may be understood as representing modules, segments, or portions of code which include one or more executable instructions for implementing steps of a custom logic function or process, and alternate implementations are included within the scope of the preferred embodiment of the present application in which functions may be executed out of order from that shown or discussed, including substantially concurrently or in reverse order, depending on the functionality involved, as would be understood by those reasonably skilled in the art of the present application.
The logic and/or steps represented in the flowcharts or otherwise described herein, e.g., an ordered listing of executable instructions that can be considered to implement logical functions, can be embodied in any computer-readable medium for use by or in connection with an instruction execution system, apparatus, or device, such as a computer-based system, processor-containing system, or other system that can fetch the instructions from the instruction execution system, apparatus, or device and execute the instructions. For the purposes of this description, a "computer-readable medium" can be any means that can contain, store, communicate, propagate, or transport the program for use by or in connection with the instruction execution system, apparatus, or device. More specific examples (a non-exhaustive list) of the computer-readable medium would include the following: an electrical connection (electronic device) having one or more wires, a portable computer diskette (magnetic device), a Random Access Memory (RAM), a read-only memory (ROM), an erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM or flash memory), an optical fiber device, and a portable compact disc read-only memory (CDROM). Additionally, the computer-readable medium could even be paper or another suitable medium upon which the program is printed, as the program can be electronically captured, via for instance optical scanning of the paper or other medium, then compiled, interpreted or otherwise processed in a suitable manner if necessary, and then stored in a computer memory.
It should be understood that portions of the present application may be implemented in hardware, software, firmware, or a combination thereof. In the above embodiments, the various steps or methods may be implemented in software or firmware stored in memory and executed by a suitable instruction execution system. If implemented in hardware, as in another embodiment, any one or combination of the following techniques, which are known in the art, may be used: a discrete logic circuit having a logic gate circuit for implementing a logic function on a data signal, an application specific integrated circuit having an appropriate combinational logic gate circuit, a Programmable Gate Array (PGA), a Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA), or the like.
It will be understood by those skilled in the art that all or part of the steps carried by the method for implementing the above embodiments may be implemented by hardware related to instructions of a program, which may be stored in a computer readable storage medium, and when the program is executed, the program includes one or a combination of the steps of the method embodiments.
In addition, functional units in the embodiments of the present application may be integrated into one processing module, or each unit may exist alone physically, or two or more units are integrated into one module. The integrated module can be realized in a hardware mode, and can also be realized in a software functional module mode. The integrated module, if implemented in the form of a software functional module and sold or used as a stand-alone product, may also be stored in a computer readable storage medium.
The storage medium mentioned above may be a read-only memory, a magnetic or optical disk, etc. Although embodiments of the present application have been shown and described above, it is understood that the above embodiments are exemplary and should not be construed as limiting the present application, and that variations, modifications, substitutions and alterations may be made to the above embodiments by those of ordinary skill in the art within the scope of the present application.

Claims (10)

1. A method for calculating a penetration probability of a batch flight path, the method comprising:
acquiring a batch track of a cruise missile;
according to the radar detection model, determining the radar discovery probability of the radar for the cruise missile to pass through each flight path in each track;
determining the ground-to-air missile killing probability of the cruise missile through each flight segment in each flight path by the ground-to-air missile intercepting unit according to the ground-to-air missile intercepting model and the channel limit;
determining the damage probability of the antiaircraft gun interception unit to the cruise missile passing through each flight segment in each flight path according to the antiaircraft gun damage model and the channel limit;
determining the penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through each flight segment in each flight path according to the radar discovery probability, the ground-air missile killing probability and the antiaircraft gun damage probability;
determining the penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through each track according to the penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through each flight segment in each track;
and determining the integral penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through the batch flight path according to the penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through each flight path.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the radar discovery probabilities include an instantaneous discovery probability and a cumulative discovery probability, and wherein the determining the radar discovery probability for the cruise missile for each leg of each flight path comprises:
determining the relative position of the cruise missile and the radar according to the real-time positions of the radar and the cruise missile;
acquiring the radar scattering sectional area of the cruise missile;
determining the signal-to-noise ratio of the radar receiving end according to the relative position of the cruise missile and the radar scattering cross section area of the cruise missile;
determining the instantaneous discovery probability of the radar for each detection of the cruise missile according to the signal-to-noise ratio of the radar receiving end;
inputting the instantaneous discovery probability of the radar to the cruise missile during each detection of the cruise missile into a calculation formula to obtain the accumulated discovery probability of the radar to the cruise missile, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
Figure FDA0002643901510000011
wherein, PDFor the cumulative discovery probability, p, of the radar to the cruise missilediAnd M is the instantaneous discovery probability of the radar in the ith detection of the cruise missile, wherein M is the detection frequency of the radar on the cruise missile, and i is a positive integer.
3. The method of calculating according to claim 1, wherein the determining the probability of the ground-to-air missile interception unit killing the cruise missile through the ground-to-air missile of each leg in each track comprises:
determining the depth of a killing area of the ground-air missile according to the flight height of the cruise missile and the horizontal killing area data of the ground-air missile;
determining the number of times of interception of the flight missile by the killing area of the ground-air missile according to the depth of the killing area of the ground-air missile;
acquiring the single-shot killing probability of the air-ground missile on the cruise missile;
and determining the ground-air missile killing probability of the ground-air missile intercepting unit for the cruise missile passing through each flight path in each flight path according to the intercepting times of the ground-air missile on the cruise missile in the killing area and the single-shot killing probability.
4. The calculation method as recited in claim 3, wherein determining the depth of the ground-to-air missile's kill zone based on the flight height of the cruise missile and the ground-to-air missile horizontal kill zone data comprises:
when the navigation shortcut of the cruise missile is larger than or equal to the boundary navigation shortcut and is smaller than or equal to the maximum navigation shortcut, the depth of the killing area of the ground-air missile is as follows:
Figure FDA0002643901510000021
wherein h is the depth of a killing area of the ground-air missile; dsyA far horizontal distance for a killing zone; p is the route shortcut of the cruise missile; q. q.smaxIs the target maximum way angle;
when the route shortcut of the cruise missile is larger than or equal to zero and smaller than or equal to the boundary route shortcut, the depth h of the killing area of the ground-air missile is determined according to the value of h ', wherein h' is the estimated value of the depth of the killing area of the ground-air missile:
h'=dsy-dsj
wherein h is the ground spaceThe depth of the missile killing area; dsyA far horizontal distance for a killing zone; dsjThe horizontal distance is close to the boundary of the killing area.
5. The calculation method according to claim 3, wherein the calculation formula for determining the ground-to-air missile killing probability of the cruise missile through each flight segment in each flight path by the ground-to-air missile interception unit is as follows:
Figure FDA0002643901510000022
wherein p is1A killing probability of the air-ground missile intercepting the cruise missile once; n is a radical ofsThe number of interception times of the cruise missile in the ground-air missile killing area is determined;
the calculation formula of the killing probability of the air-ground missile for intercepting the cruise missile once is as follows:
p1=1-(1-p0)n
wherein p is0The single-shot killing probability of the ground-air missile is obtained, and n is the number of the missiles.
6. The method of claim 1, wherein the determining the probability of antiaircraft damage to the cruise missile by the antiaircraft intercept unit through each leg of each flight path comprises:
acquiring the number of simultaneous fire of each fire unit of an antiaircraft gun and the destruction probability of one-time fire of each fire unit;
determining the damage probability of the antiaircraft gun according to the number of simultaneous fire in each fire unit of the antiaircraft gun and the damage probability of one-time firing in each fire unit; wherein, the calculation formula is as follows:
PSS=1-(1-PJH)n
wherein, PSSThe probability of damage to the antiaircraft gun is taken as the probability of damage to the antiaircraft gun; pJHThe damage probability of one-time shooting for each fire unit of the antiaircraft gun; n is the number of simultaneous fire per fire unit of the antiaircraft gun.
7. The calculation method according to claim 6, wherein the calculation formula of the destruction probability of one shot per unit of fire of the antiaircraft gun is as follows:
PJH=aPDD+(1-a)PMZ
wherein, PJHThe damage probability of one-time shooting for each fire unit of the antiaircraft gun; pMZIs the single shot hit probability; a is a correlation correction coefficient; pDDThe damage probability of multiple single shots is calculated according to the following formula:
Figure FDA0002643901510000031
where ω is the average number of bound shots, and m is the number of consecutive or homogeneous shots.
8. The method as set forth in claim 1, wherein the flight path of the cruise missile comprises a plurality of flight segments, and the formula for determining the penetration probability of the cruise missile through each flight path according to the penetration probability of the cruise missile through each flight segment in each flight path is as follows:
Figure FDA0002643901510000032
wherein, PpenThe penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through each flight path is obtained; q is the total number of the flight sections included in the flight path of the cruise missile; p is a radical ofpen,qThe penetration probability of the cruise missile at the qth flight segment is obtained;
the calculation formula of the penetration probability of the cruise missile in the qth flight segment is as follows:
ppen,q=1-pR,q[1-(1-pSAM,q)(1-pAAA,q)]
wherein p ispen,qThe penetration probability of the cruise missile at the qth flight segment is obtained; p is a radical ofR,qTo said patrolRadar discovery probability of the aeromissile in the qth flight segment; p is a radical ofSAM,qThe killing probability of the ground-air missile of the cruise missile at the qth flight segment is obtained; p is a radical ofAAA,qThe probability of antiaircraft gun damage of the cruise missile in the qth flight segment;
the calculation formula of the radar discovery probability of the cruise missile in the qth flight section is as follows:
Figure FDA0002643901510000041
wherein p isR,qFinding a probability for the cruise missile at the qth leg; m is the total number of radars in the qth flight segment; p is a radical ofR,q,mFinding probability of the mth radar in the qth flight segment for the cruise missile;
the calculation formula of the killing probability of the air-ground missile of the cruise missile in the qth flight segment is as follows:
Figure FDA0002643901510000042
wherein p isSAM,qThe killing probability of the ground-air missile of the cruise missile at the qth flight segment is obtained; n is the total number of ground-air missiles in the qth flight leg; p is a radical ofSAM,q,nThe killing probability of the nth ground-to-air missile in the qth flight segment is given to the cruise missile;
the calculation formula of the antiaircraft gun damage probability of the cruise missile in the qth flight segment is as follows:
Figure FDA0002643901510000043
wherein p isAAA,q,sThe damage probability of the nth antiaircraft gun of the cruise missile in the qth flight segment is obtained; and S is the total number of antiaircraft guns in the qth flight segment of the cruise missile.
9. An apparatus for calculating a penetration probability of a batch flight path, the apparatus comprising:
the acquisition module is used for acquiring the batch flight path of the cruise missile;
the first determining module is used for determining the radar discovery probability of the radar for the cruise missile to pass through each flight path in each flight path according to the radar detection model;
the second determining module is used for determining the ground-to-air missile killing probability of the cruise missile through each flight segment in each flight path by the ground-to-air missile intercepting unit according to the ground-to-air missile intercepting model and the channel limit;
the third determining module is used for determining the damage probability of the antiaircraft gun of the cruise missile on each flight segment in each flight path by the antiaircraft gun intercepting unit according to the antiaircraft gun damage model and the channel limit;
the fourth determination module is used for determining the penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through each flight segment in each flight path according to the radar discovery probability, the ground-air missile killing probability and the antiaircraft gun damage probability;
the fifth determining module is used for determining the penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through each track according to the penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through each flight segment in each track;
and the sixth determining module is used for determining the integral penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through the batch flight path according to the penetration probability of the cruise missile passing through each flight path.
10. The computing apparatus of claim 9, wherein the radar discovery probability comprises an instantaneous discovery probability and a cumulative discovery probability, and wherein the first determination module is further configured to:
determining the relative position of the cruise missile and the radar according to the real-time positions of the radar and the cruise missile;
acquiring the radar scattering sectional area of the cruise missile;
determining the signal-to-noise ratio of the radar receiving end according to the relative position of the cruise missile and the radar scattering cross section area of the cruise missile;
determining the instantaneous discovery probability of the radar for each detection of the cruise missile according to the signal-to-noise ratio of the radar receiving end;
inputting the instantaneous discovery probability of the radar to the cruise missile during each detection of the cruise missile into a calculation formula to obtain the accumulated discovery probability of the radar to the cruise missile, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
Figure FDA0002643901510000051
wherein, PDFor the cumulative discovery probability, p, of the radar to the cruise missilediAnd M is the instantaneous discovery probability of the radar in the ith detection of the cruise missile, wherein M is the detection frequency of the radar on the cruise missile, and i is a positive integer.
CN202010848465.8A 2020-08-21 2020-08-21 Method and device for calculating defense probability of batch flight path Pending CN112149276A (en)

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