CN111915072A - Courier attendance amount prediction method, device and equipment - Google Patents

Courier attendance amount prediction method, device and equipment Download PDF

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CN111915072A
CN111915072A CN202010698534.1A CN202010698534A CN111915072A CN 111915072 A CN111915072 A CN 111915072A CN 202010698534 A CN202010698534 A CN 202010698534A CN 111915072 A CN111915072 A CN 111915072A
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department
order
dispatching
orders
delivery
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施浩然
刘伟
白永恒
张传金
童传超
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Shanghai Yanxi Software Information Technology Co ltd
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Abstract

The embodiment of the application discloses a method, a device and equipment for predicting the attendance of a courier, wherein the method comprises the following steps: predicting the planned arrival time of the order from the starting department to the dispatching department according to the acquired distribution paths of all generated orders on the current date; tracking an order in real time, and acquiring the overtime length and the advance length of the order in the distribution process; calculating the actual arrival time of the order according to the planned arrival time, the delay time and the advance time of the order, and determining the arrival number of the order of each delivery department on the prediction date according to the actual arrival time of the order; and comparing the arrival number of orders of each dispatching department on the forecast date with the dispatching capacity of the corresponding dispatching department to obtain the number of couriers required by each dispatching department on the forecast date. According to the method and the system, the express quantity of each day obtained through prediction can be used for accurately evaluating the couriers on attendance of departments on the same day, and the problems that the couriers are time-consuming and labor-consuming in scheduling and low in refinement degree are solved to a certain extent.

Description

Courier attendance amount prediction method, device and equipment
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of logistics, and particularly relates to a method, a device and equipment for predicting the attendance of couriers.
Background
Logistics enterprises belong to the intensive industry of personnel, to the scheduling of going out of work of express delivery personnel, most enterprises still arrange the manual scheduling according to the manual experience line, consequently the express delivery personnel that probably arrange when the express delivery volume is more are small in quantity, arrange the emergence of more express delivery personnel's the condition on the contrary when the express delivery volume is less, need adjust the scheduling calculation in real time this moment to current scheduling mode is not strict to the flow handle control, often appear the action of fraud etc. lead to scheduling refinement degree low, cause the company cost extravagant, influence and receive and dispatch efficiency.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the problems in the prior art, the invention provides a method, a device and equipment for predicting the attendance of a courier. According to the method, the express deliverers on duty in the departments on the same day can be accurately evaluated according to the predicted express delivery number of each day, the problems that the express deliverers are time-consuming and labor-consuming in scheduling and low in refinement degree are solved to a certain extent, dispatching efficiency is improved, and personnel cost is saved.
The embodiment of the invention provides the following specific technical scheme:
on one hand, the method discloses a courier attendance amount prediction method, which comprises the following steps:
predicting the planned arrival time of the order to a dispatching department according to the acquired distribution paths of all generated orders on the current date;
tracking the order in real time, and acquiring the overtime length and the advance length of the order in the distribution process;
calculating the actual arrival time of the order to the dispatching department according to the planned arrival time, the delay time and the advance time of the order, and determining the arrival number of the order of each dispatching department on the forecast date according to the actual arrival time of the order to the dispatching department;
and comparing the arrival number of orders of each dispatching department on the forecast date with the dispatching capacity of the corresponding dispatching department to obtain the number of couriers required by each dispatching department on the forecast date. Preferably, the method for acquiring the dispatching ability of the dispatching department comprises the following steps:
and calculating the dispatching capacity of the dispatching department according to the obtained arrival number and the retention number of the orders of the dispatching department on the current date.
Preferably, the method further comprises:
analyzing orders arriving at the forecast date of each delivery department, and determining the distribution quantity of the orders of each parcel corresponding to each delivery department;
and comparing the distribution quantity of the orders of the various districts corresponding to each delivery department with the delivery capacity of the corresponding districts to obtain the quantity of couriers required by the forecast date of the various districts corresponding to each delivery department.
Preferably, the analyzing the order that arrives at each delivery department on the forecast date, and determining the distribution quantity of the order of each parcel corresponding to each delivery department specifically includes:
analyzing the receiving address of the order arriving at the forecast date by each dispatching department, matching the analysis result with the address range of each parcel corresponding to each dispatching department, and counting the first number of the order of each parcel corresponding to each dispatching department when the matching is successful;
when the matching of the analysis result and any parcel corresponding to any delivery department fails, inputting the receiving address of the order corresponding to the matching failure into a pre-trained partition model for recognition, and counting the second quantity of the order of each parcel corresponding to each delivery department according to the recognition result;
and calculating the distribution quantity of the orders of the various districts corresponding to each delivery department according to the first quantity and the second quantity of the orders of the various districts corresponding to each delivery department.
Preferably, the method for training the partition model includes:
constructing a sample training set; the sample training set is a set of different addresses;
and training a preset basic model according to the sample training set to obtain the partition model.
Preferably, the method for acquiring the dispatching ability of each parcel corresponding to the dispatching department comprises:
comparing the obtained historical signing and receiving amount of each order of each courier of each parcel corresponding to the dispatching department in each day in a historical time period, and determining the maximum historical signing and receiving amount of each parcel corresponding to the dispatching department;
and calculating the dispatching capacity of each parcel of the dispatching department according to the maximum historical signing amount of each parcel corresponding to the dispatching department and a preset weighting coefficient.
On the other hand, the utility model also discloses a courier attendance prediction device, the device includes:
the acquisition module is used for acquiring the distribution paths of all generated orders on the current date;
the prediction module is used for predicting the planned arrival time of the order to the dispatching department according to the acquired distribution paths of all generated orders on the current date;
the acquisition module is further used for tracking the order in real time and acquiring the overtime length and the advance length of the order in the distribution process;
the calculation module is used for calculating the actual arrival time of the order to the dispatching department according to the planned arrival time, the delay time and the advance time of the order, and determining the arrival number of the order of each dispatching department on the prediction date according to the actual arrival time of the order to the dispatching department;
the calculation module is further used for comparing the arrival number of the orders of each delivery department on the forecast date with the delivery capacity of the corresponding delivery department to obtain the number of the couriers required by each delivery department on the forecast date.
Preferably, the calculation module is further configured to:
and calculating the dispatching capacity of the dispatching department according to the obtained arrival number and the retention number of the orders of the dispatching department on the current date.
Preferably, the apparatus further comprises:
the analysis module is used for analyzing the orders of each delivery department arriving at the forecast date and determining the distribution quantity of the orders of each parcel corresponding to each delivery department;
the calculation module is further used for comparing the number of orders of each parcel corresponding to each delivery department with the delivery capacity of the corresponding parcel to obtain the number of couriers required by each parcel corresponding to each delivery department on the prediction date.
In yet another aspect, the present application further discloses a computer device, which includes a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor implements the method for predicting the attendance of couriers according to the first aspect when executing the computer program.
The embodiment of the invention has the following beneficial effects:
1. according to the method, the scheduled arrival time of the order is obtained by obtaining the distribution path of the order, and the actual arrival time is predicted according to the overtime length, the advance length and the scheduled arrival time, so that the arrival number of the order in each day is predicted, and the express number in each day obtained by prediction is used for accurately evaluating the express couriers on duty in the department of the same day, so that the problems of time and labor consumption and low refinement degree of the express couriers during scheduling are solved to a certain extent, the dispatching efficiency is improved, and the personnel cost is saved;
2. the method and the system can also predict each district attendance courier of each department to carry out accurate prediction, thereby further providing reference for the scheduling of the couriers of each district.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention, the drawings needed to be used in the description of the embodiments will be briefly introduced below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious for those skilled in the art to obtain other drawings based on these drawings without creative efforts.
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a courier attendance amount prediction method provided in embodiment 1 of the present application;
fig. 2 is a schematic structural diagram of a courier attendance amount prediction device provided in embodiment 2 of the present application;
fig. 3 is a computer device architecture diagram provided in embodiment 3 of the present application.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
As described in the background art, currently, logistics enterprises perform work scheduling on couriers on a daily basis, and most of the work scheduling is performed manually according to manual experience lines, so that the situation that more couriers are scheduled when the number of couriers is large and more couriers are scheduled when the number of the couriers is small may occur, and real-time adjustment of scheduling calculation is needed. The examples of the application are as follows:
example 1
As shown in fig. 1, a courier attendance amount prediction method includes:
s11, predicting the planned arrival time of the order to the dispatching department according to the acquired distribution paths of all generated orders on the current date;
acquiring a distribution route through related information carried by a generated order; the related information includes at least a shipping address of the order.
Specifically, the obtaining of the distribution route according to the related information carried by the generated order includes:
1. acquiring a receiving address of an order;
2. determining a dispatching department and an originating department which are closest to the receiving address;
3. and determining a delivery path of the order according to the delivery department and the starting department of the order, wherein the delivery path comprises a transit department.
After the distribution path of the order is obtained, the calculated arrival time of the order can be predicted, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
1. according to the distribution path of the order, acquiring the time efficiency corresponding to the current distribution path in a preset distribution path and time efficiency association table;
2. and calculating the planned arrival time of the order from the originating department to the dispatching department according to the order placing time and the time effectiveness of the order.
S12, tracking the order in real time, and acquiring the overtime length and the advance length of the order in the distribution process;
since the time efficiency of the order can be influenced by some external factors during transportation, the order needs to be tracked in real time to accurately predict the actual arrival time of the order, and the overtime duration and the advance duration of the order during distribution are obtained.
The timeout duration may be a delay duration due to a road condition and a weather condition in a distribution process, for example, 3 hours are required from an originating department to a first transit department, but for reasons such as a road condition, 5 hours are actually spent from the originating department to the first transit department, and at this time, 2 hours more than an original plan is the timeout duration; in addition, if the transfer is performed in the first transfer department, the original plan needs 2 hours, actually, the transfer is prolonged due to excessive orders in the same day, and the transfer is changed into 5 hours, and the exceeding 3 hours are the timeout duration; similarly, the advance time length is the time length calculated when the actual time length is smaller than the original planned time length.
S13, calculating the actual arrival time of the order to the dispatching department according to the planned arrival time, the delay time and the advance time of the order, and determining the arrival number of the order of each dispatching department on the predicted date according to the actual arrival time of the order to the dispatching department;
specifically, the calculation formula of the actual arrival time is as follows:
A＝A1+A2-A3
wherein A is the actual arrival time, A1To plan the arrival time, A2For the time-out duration, A3Is the advance time period.
S14, comparing the arrival number of orders of each delivery department on the forecast date with the delivery capacity of the corresponding delivery department to obtain the number of couriers required by each delivery department on the forecast date.
The dispatching capacity obtaining method of the dispatching department comprises the following steps:
and calculating the dispatching capacity of the dispatching department according to the obtained arrival number and the retention number of the orders of the dispatching department on the current date.
Specifically, the dispatch capacity of the dispatch unit is the arrival number of the order on the current date of the dispatch unit + the hold up number of the order on the current date of the dispatch unit.
Illustratively, if the arrival number of orders for a dispatch department on the current date is 400 and the hold up number of orders is 100, then the dispatch capacity for that department is 500. If the arrival number of orders of the dispatching department on the forecast date is 10000, the number of couriers required by the dispatching department on the forecast date is as follows: 10000/500 ═ 20.
In addition, after express delivery personnel required by a department are determined, the number of couriers required by each parcel of the department can be predicted according to the scheme, and therefore reference is provided for scheduling of the couriers in each parcel.
Specifically, the scheme comprises the following steps:
s15, analyzing the orders arriving at the forecast date of each delivery department, and determining the distribution quantity of the orders of each parcel corresponding to each delivery department;
the method specifically comprises the following steps:
s151, analyzing the receiving address of the order arriving at the forecast date by each dispatching department, matching the analysis result with the address range of each parcel corresponding to each dispatching department, and counting the first number of the order of each parcel corresponding to each dispatching department when the matching is successful;
s152, when the matching of the analysis result and any parcel corresponding to any delivery department fails, inputting the receiving address of the order corresponding to the matching failure into a pre-trained partition model for recognition, and counting the second quantity of the order of each parcel corresponding to each delivery department according to the recognition result;
the method for training the partition model comprises the following steps:
1. constructing a sample training set; the sample training set is a set of different addresses;
2. and training a preset basic model according to the sample training set to obtain a partition model.
S153, calculating the distribution quantity of the orders of the various districts corresponding to each delivery department according to the first quantity and the second quantity of the orders of the various districts corresponding to each delivery department.
According to the scheme, orders can be distributed to each corresponding parcel through an address resolution and partition model prediction method, so that the number prediction of couriers in the parcel is completed.
S16, comparing the distribution quantity of the orders of each parcel corresponding to each delivery department with the delivery capacity of the corresponding parcel to obtain the quantity of couriers required by each parcel corresponding to each delivery department on the forecast date.
The method for acquiring the dispatching capacity of each parcel corresponding to the dispatching department comprises the following steps:
1. comparing the obtained historical signing and receiving amount of each order of each courier of each parcel corresponding to the dispatching department in each day in the historical time period, and determining the maximum historical signing and receiving amount of each parcel corresponding to the dispatching department;
2. and calculating the dispatching capacity of each parcel of the dispatching department according to the maximum historical signing amount of each parcel corresponding to the dispatching department and a preset weighting coefficient.
Specifically, the dispatch capacity of each tile is the maximum historical pick-up quantity of each tile — a preset weighting coefficient.
Illustratively, the historical pick-up amount of the order on each day within three weeks from the current date is obtained, and when the obtained maximum historical pick-up amount of a parcel is determined to be 100, the dispatch capacity of the parcel is calculated to be 100 × 1.1 — 110 according to the maximum historical pick-up amount 100 and a preset weighting coefficient (e.g., 1.1).
In addition, if the distribution quantity of the orders of a parcel corresponding to a dispatch department is 1100, and the dispatch capacity of the parcel is 110, the quantity of couriers required by the parcel corresponding to the dispatch department on the forecast date is: 1100/110 ═ 10.
In conclusion, the method and the system can predict the number of the couriers needed by the dispatching department and the number of the couriers in each parcel, so that accurate reference is provided for scheduling of the couriers.
Example 2
Corresponding to the above method, embodiment 2 of the present application provides a device for predicting the attendance amount of a courier, as shown in fig. 2, the device includes:
an obtaining module 21, configured to obtain distribution paths of all generated orders on a current date;
the prediction module 22 is configured to predict a planned arrival time of the order to the dispatching department according to the obtained distribution paths of all generated orders on the current date;
the obtaining module 21 is further configured to track the order in real time, and obtain the timeout duration and the advance duration of the order in the distribution process;
the calculating module 23 is configured to calculate an actual arrival time of the order to the dispatching department according to the planned arrival time, the delay time and the advance time of the order, and determine an arrival number of the order of each dispatching department on the predicted date according to the actual arrival time of the order to the dispatching department;
the calculating module 23 is further configured to compare the arrival number of the order of each delivery department on the forecast date with the delivery capability of the corresponding delivery department, so as to obtain the number of the couriers required by each delivery department on the forecast date.
Preferably, the calculation module 23 is further configured to:
and calculating the dispatching capacity of the dispatching department according to the obtained arrival number and the retention number of the orders of the dispatching department on the current date.
The device still includes:
an analysis module 24, configured to analyze the orders that arrive at the forecast date by each delivery department, and determine the distribution quantity of the orders of each parcel corresponding to each delivery department;
the calculating module 23 is further configured to compare the distribution quantity of the orders of each parcel corresponding to each delivery department with the delivery capacity of the corresponding parcel, so as to obtain the quantity of couriers required by each parcel corresponding to each delivery department on the predicted date.
Preferably, the analysis module 24 is specifically configured to:
analyzing the receiving address of the order arriving at the forecast date by each dispatching department, matching the analysis result with the address range of each parcel corresponding to each dispatching department, and counting the first number of the order of each parcel corresponding to each dispatching department when the matching is successful;
when the matching of the analysis result and any parcel corresponding to any delivery department fails, inputting the receiving address of the order corresponding to the matching failure into a pre-trained partition model for recognition, and counting the second quantity of the order of each parcel corresponding to each delivery department according to the recognition result;
and calculating the distribution quantity of the orders of the various districts corresponding to each delivery department according to the first quantity and the second quantity of the orders of the various districts corresponding to each delivery department.
Preferably, the apparatus further comprises a modelling module 25 for:
constructing a sample training set; the sample training set is a set of different addresses;
and training a preset basic model according to the sample training set to obtain a partition model.
Preferably, the calculation module 23 is further specifically configured to:
comparing the obtained historical signing and receiving amount of each order of each courier of each parcel corresponding to the dispatching department in each day in the historical time period, and determining the maximum historical signing and receiving amount of each parcel corresponding to the dispatching department;
and calculating the dispatching capacity of each parcel of the dispatching department according to the maximum historical signing amount of each parcel corresponding to the dispatching department and a preset weighting coefficient.
Example 3
In one embodiment, a computer device is provided, comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, the processor implementing all the methods described in embodiment 1 when executing the computer program.
Fig. 3 is an internal structural diagram of a computer device according to an embodiment of the present invention. The computer device may be a server, and its internal structure diagram may be as shown in fig. 3. The computer device includes a processor, a memory, and a network interface connected by a system bus. Wherein the processor of the computer device is configured to provide computing and control capabilities. The memory of the computer device comprises a nonvolatile storage medium and an internal memory. The non-volatile storage medium stores an operating system, a computer program, and a database. The internal memory provides an environment for the operation of an operating system and computer programs in the non-volatile storage medium. The network interface of the computer device is used for communicating with an external terminal through a network connection. The computer program is executed by a processor to implement a courier attendance prediction method.
Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the configuration shown in fig. 3 is a block diagram of only a portion of the configuration associated with aspects of the present invention and is not intended to limit the computing devices to which aspects of the present invention may be applied, and that a particular computing device may include more or less components than those shown, or may combine certain components, or have a different arrangement of components.
The technical features of the above embodiments can be arbitrarily combined, and for the sake of brevity, all possible combinations of the technical features in the above embodiments are not described, but should be considered as the scope of the present specification as long as there is no contradiction between the combinations of the technical features.
The above examples only show some embodiments of the present invention, and the description thereof is more specific and detailed, but not construed as limiting the scope of the invention. It should be noted that, for a person skilled in the art, several variations and modifications can be made without departing from the inventive concept, which falls within the scope of the present invention. Therefore, the protection scope of the present patent shall be subject to the appended claims.

Claims (10)

1. A courier attendance amount prediction method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
predicting the planned arrival time of the order to a dispatching department according to the acquired distribution paths of all generated orders on the current date;
tracking the order in real time, and acquiring the overtime length and the advance length of the order in the distribution process;
calculating the actual arrival time of the order to the dispatching department according to the planned arrival time, the delay time and the advance time of the order, and determining the arrival number of the order of each dispatching department on the forecast date according to the actual arrival time of the order to the dispatching department;
and comparing the arrival number of orders of each dispatching department on the forecast date with the dispatching capacity of the corresponding dispatching department to obtain the number of couriers required by each dispatching department on the forecast date.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the dispatch capability acquisition method of the dispatch department comprises:
and calculating the dispatching capacity of the dispatching department according to the obtained arrival number and the retention number of the orders of the dispatching department on the current date.
3. The method of claim 1, further comprising:
analyzing orders arriving at the forecast date of each delivery department, and determining the distribution quantity of the orders of each parcel corresponding to each delivery department;
and comparing the distribution quantity of the orders of the various districts corresponding to each delivery department with the delivery capacity of the corresponding districts to obtain the quantity of couriers required by the forecast date of the various districts corresponding to each delivery department.
4. The method of claim 3, wherein analyzing the orders that arrive at the forecasted date for each dispatch section to determine the allocated quantity of orders for each parcel corresponding to each dispatch section specifically comprises:
analyzing the receiving address of the order arriving at the forecast date by each dispatching department, matching the analysis result with the address range of each parcel corresponding to each dispatching department, and counting the first number of the order of each parcel corresponding to each dispatching department when the matching is successful;
when the matching of the analysis result and any parcel corresponding to any delivery department fails, inputting the receiving address of the order corresponding to the matching failure into a pre-trained partition model for recognition, and counting the second quantity of the order of each parcel corresponding to each delivery department according to the recognition result;
and calculating the distribution quantity of the orders of the various districts corresponding to each delivery department according to the first quantity and the second quantity of the orders of the various districts corresponding to each delivery department.
5. The method of claim 4, wherein the method for training the partition model comprises:
constructing a sample training set; the sample training set is a set of different addresses;
and training a preset basic model according to the sample training set to obtain the partition model.
6. The method according to claim 3, wherein the method for obtaining the dispatch capability of each parcel corresponding to the dispatch department comprises:
comparing the obtained historical signing and receiving amount of each order of each courier of each parcel corresponding to the dispatching department in each day in a historical time period, and determining the maximum historical signing and receiving amount of each parcel corresponding to the dispatching department;
and calculating the dispatching capacity of each parcel of the dispatching department according to the maximum historical signing amount of each parcel corresponding to the dispatching department and a preset weighting coefficient.
7. An courier attendance prediction apparatus, the apparatus comprising:
the acquisition module is used for acquiring the distribution paths of all generated orders on the current date;
the prediction module is used for predicting the planned arrival time of the order to the dispatching department according to the acquired distribution paths of all generated orders on the current date;
the acquisition module is further used for tracking the order in real time and acquiring the overtime length and the advance length of the order in the distribution process;
the calculation module is used for calculating the actual arrival time of the order to the dispatching department according to the planned arrival time, the delay time and the advance time of the order, and determining the arrival number of the order of each dispatching department on the prediction date according to the actual arrival time of the order to the dispatching department;
the calculation module is further used for comparing the arrival number of the orders of each delivery department on the forecast date with the delivery capacity of the corresponding delivery department to obtain the number of the couriers required by each delivery department on the forecast date.
8. The apparatus of claim 7, wherein the computing module is further configured to:
and calculating the dispatching capacity of the dispatching department according to the obtained arrival number and the retention number of the orders of the dispatching department on the current date.
9. The apparatus of claim 7, further comprising:
the analysis module is used for analyzing the orders of each delivery department arriving at the forecast date and determining the distribution quantity of the orders of each parcel corresponding to each delivery department;
the calculation module is further used for comparing the distribution quantity of the orders of the various districts corresponding to each delivery department with the delivery capacity of the corresponding districts to obtain the quantity of couriers required by the forecast date of the various districts corresponding to each delivery department.
10. A computer device comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein:
the processor, when executing the computer program, implements the courier attendance prediction method of any of claims 1 to 6.
CN202010698534.1A 2020-07-20 2020-07-20 Courier attendance amount prediction method, device and equipment Pending CN111915072A (en)

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