CN110348612A - Distribution Center goods amount prediction technique and device - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses Distribution Center goods amount prediction technique and devices.It is related to logistics transportation field, wherein, method passes through the estimated goods amount of history that forecast date is calculated in the history goods amount of Distribution Center, and obtain the Realtime Prediction goods amount in library goods amount and on the day of according to order goods information forecast date being calculated, prediction goods amount on the day of measuring Distribution Center forecast date then in conjunction with the estimated goods amount of history and Realtime Prediction goods, forward scheduling to carry out logistic resources is planned, avoid Field Force's scheduling not in time, cause cargo accumulation and problem of resource waste, and Distribution Center goods to be transshipped reaches existing various resource allocation un-reasonable phenomenons after certain amount grade, improve all transfer efficients of Distribution Center, it meets customer need, it increases customer satisfaction degree, reduce Distribution Center operation cost, it improves the core competitiveness of enterprise.It can be widely applied to goods amount prediction logistics field.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to logistics transportation field, especially a kind of Distribution Center goods amount prediction technique and device.
Background technique
Nowadays, there are various logistics forms in logistic industry, has obtained great development, such as part load logistics, has referred to and work as
When the weight or measurement of a batch of goods is discontented with a lorry, a lorry dress can be shared with other several even shipments up to a hundred
Fortune, this logistics mode are named less-than freight traffic, be a kind of acknowledgement of consignment department by the cargo of the different owners of cargo by it is same arrive at a station to gather expire one
The service form shipped again after vehicle.But part load logistics in general cargo is greatly different in size, transfer place is limited and timeliness is tight
Compel, Distribution Center should F.F. go out fastly, and should concentrate on fixing period disengaging station relatively to improve efficiency, such as
Fruit Field Force dispatches not in time, easily causes cargo accumulation and the wasting of resources, in addition, when Distribution Center goods to be transshipped reaches one
After fixed number magnitude, there will be various resource allocation un-reasonable phenomenons, cause cargo handling inefficiency, railway platform utilization rate low
Under, cargo is in the problems such as the Distribution Center turnaround time is too long, vehicle service efficiency is low.
Therefore need to propose a kind of goods amount prediction technique that the goods amount to daily Distribution Center is predicted, to carry out logistics
The forward scheduling of resource is planned, all transfer efficients of Distribution Center are improved, and reduces the wasting of resources phenomenon as caused by stacks of cargo product.
Summary of the invention
The present invention is directed to solve at least some of the technical problems in related technologies.For this purpose, of the invention
Purpose is to provide a kind of goods amount prediction technique that the goods amount to daily Distribution Center is predicted.
The technical scheme adopted by the invention is that:
In a first aspect, the present invention provides a kind of Distribution Center goods amount prediction technique, comprising:
History goods amount prediction: the estimated goods amount of history that forecast date is calculated according to the history goods amount of Distribution Center, institute
Stating the estimated goods amount prediction of history includes: the leave the port estimated goods amount prediction of history and estimated goods amount prediction of approaching；
Real-time goods amount prediction: the reality in library goods amount and on the day of according to order goods information forecast date being calculated is obtained
When estimated goods amount, the real-time goods amount prediction includes: leave the port real-time goods amount prediction and real-time goods amount prediction of approaching；
On the day of measuring the Distribution Center forecast date in conjunction with the estimated goods amount of the history and the Realtime Prediction goods
Predict goods amount.
Further, the history goods amount prediction specifically: obtain average goods relevant to forecast date in historical data
It measures data and day increases goods amount, the estimated goods amount of the history of forecast date is calculated；
Calculation formula indicates are as follows:
x1+x2+x3+x4+x5=1
V (q)=v (q-1)+Δ v
Wherein, v (p) indicates the estimated goods amount of history, and p indicates forecast date,Indicate j week w in history goods amount data
Average goods amount,Indicate the average goods amount of k d days every month in history goods amount data,Indicate history goods amount
The average goods amount of n m month d day in data,Indicate h days before needing to predict the goods amount date average goods amounts, v (q) indicates pre-
The goods amount on the day before the date is surveyed, Δ v is day to increase goods amount, x1To x5For variable weight.
Further, the real-time goods amount prediction of leaving the port specifically:
Calculate that the Distribution Center forecast date currently leaves the port in library goods amount；
Leave the port order and the delivery of cargo order for obtaining the Distribution Center and each outlet, calculate the estimated goods to leave the port
Amount carries out real-time goods amount prediction of leaving the port, and then obtains Realtime Prediction goods amount of leaving the port.
Further, the real-time goods amount prediction of approaching specifically:
Calculate that the Distribution Center currently unloads in library goods amount；
Acquisition main line, which approaches, to be transported the vehicle arrival time of cargo, and arrival Distribution Center approaches pre- after calculating preset time
Goods amount is counted, real-time goods amount prediction of approaching, and then the Realtime Prediction goods amount of leaving the port that obtains approaching.
Second aspect, the present invention also provides a kind of Distribution Center goods amount prediction meanss, comprising:
History goods amount prediction module: the history that forecast date is calculated for the history goods amount according to Distribution Center is estimated
Goods amount, the estimated goods amount prediction of the history include: the leave the port estimated goods amount prediction of history and estimated goods amount prediction of approaching；
Real-time goods amount prediction module: for obtaining in library goods amount and forecast date being calculated according to order goods information
The Realtime Prediction goods amount on the same day, the real-time goods amount prediction include: leave the port real-time goods amount prediction and real-time goods amount prediction of approaching；
Whole prediction goods amount module: for measuring described point in conjunction with the estimated goods amount of the history and the Realtime Prediction goods
Dial the prediction goods amount of Center Prediction date.
Further, the real-time goods amount prediction module includes: leave the port real-time goods amount prediction module and the real-time goods amount that approaches
Prediction module.
Further, the real-time goods amount prediction module of leaving the port carry out described in leave the port real-time goods amount prediction process it is specific
Are as follows:
Calculate that the Distribution Center forecast date currently leaves the port in library goods amount；
Leave the port order and the delivery of cargo order for obtaining the Distribution Center and each outlet, calculate the estimated goods to leave the port
Amount carries out real-time goods amount prediction of leaving the port, and then obtains Realtime Prediction goods amount of leaving the port.
Further, the real-time goods amount prediction module of approaching carry out described in approach real-time goods amount prediction process it is specific
Are as follows:
Calculate that the Distribution Center currently unloads in library goods amount；
Acquisition main line, which approaches, to be transported the vehicle arrival time of cargo, and arrival Distribution Center approaches pre- after calculating preset time
Goods amount is counted, real-time goods amount prediction of approaching, and then the Realtime Prediction goods amount of leaving the port that obtains approaching.
The third aspect, the present invention also provides a kind of pre- measurement equipments of Distribution Center goods amount characterized by comprising
At least one processor；And the memory being connect at least one described processor communication；
Wherein, the processor is by calling the computer program stored in the memory, for executing as right is wanted
Seek 1 to 4 described in any item methods.
Fourth aspect, the present invention provide a kind of computer readable storage medium, the computer-readable recording medium storage
There are computer executable instructions, the computer executable instructions are for executing computer as first aspect is described in any item
Method.
The beneficial effects of the present invention are:
The present invention is obtained by the estimated goods amount of history that forecast date is calculated in the history goods amount of Distribution Center in library
Goods amount and the Realtime Prediction goods amount on the day of forecast date is calculated according to order goods information, then in conjunction with the estimated goods of history
The prediction goods amount on the day of measuring Distribution Center forecast date with Realtime Prediction goods is measured, to carry out the forward scheduling of logistic resources
Planning avoids Field Force's scheduling not in time, causes cargo accumulation and problem of resource waste and Distribution Center goods to be transshipped
Reach existing various resource allocation un-reasonable phenomenons after certain amount grade, improves all transfer efficients of Distribution Center, meets client
Demand is increased customer satisfaction degree, and is reduced Distribution Center operation cost, is improved the core competitiveness of enterprise.It can be widely applied to goods amount
Predict logistics field.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the implementation flow chart of a specific embodiment of Distribution Center goods amount prediction technique in the present invention；
Fig. 2 is the structural block diagram of a specific embodiment of Distribution Center goods amount prediction meanss in the present invention.
Specific embodiment
In order to more clearly explain the embodiment of the invention or the technical proposal in the existing technology, Detailed description of the invention will be compareed below
A specific embodiment of the invention.It should be evident that drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the invention, for
For those of ordinary skill in the art, without creative efforts, it can also be obtained according to these attached drawings other
Attached drawing, and obtain other embodiments.
Unless otherwise defined, all technical and scientific terms used herein and belong to technical field of the invention
The normally understood meaning of technical staff is identical.Term as used herein in the specification of the present invention is intended merely to description tool
The purpose of the embodiment of body, it is not intended that in the limitation present invention.
Here is the explanation of some nouns in the present invention.
Part load logistics:, can be with other several even up to a hundred batches when the weight or measurement of a batch of goods is discontented with a lorry
When cargo shares a lorry shipment, less-than freight traffic is cried.
Distribution Center: being the organization of economic activity of logistic industry running, it is a variety of functions such as collection processing, tally, delivery
In the logistics center of one.
Main line: the route transport being a mainstay in transport network.
Branch line: being to help out on the basis of line haul to line haul for line haul
Types of transportation.
Embodiment one:
The embodiment of the present invention one provides a kind of Distribution Center goods amount prediction technique, and Fig. 1 is provided in an embodiment of the present invention one
The implementation flow chart of kind Distribution Center goods amount prediction technique, as shown in Figure 1, method includes the following steps:
S1: history goods amount prediction: the estimated goods amount of history that forecast date is calculated according to the history goods amount of Distribution Center；
S2: it real-time goods amount prediction: obtains in library goods amount and on the day of according to order goods information forecast date being calculated
Realtime Prediction goods amount, wherein the prediction of real-time goods amount includes: the leave the port prediction of real-time goods amount and real-time goods amount prediction of approaching；
S3: the prediction goods amount on the day of measuring Distribution Center forecast date in conjunction with the estimated goods amount of history and Realtime Prediction goods.
Wherein, in step S1, the prediction of history goods amount is specifically that usage history rule goods amount prediction algorithm carries out the prediction of goods amount,
In part load logistics business, the goods amount of client is presented different regularity according to the time, in the present embodiment, defines its rule as week rule
Rule, moon rule and year rule, have comprehensively considered the influence of these three rules, and it is pre- to combine history goods amount data to carry out goods amount
It surveys, obtain average goods amount data relevant to forecast date in historical data and day increases goods amount, forecast date is calculated
The estimated goods amount of history, in addition, in the present embodiment, the estimated goods amount prediction of history includes leaving the port the estimated goods amount prediction of history and to approach
It is expected that goods amount is predicted.Specific calculation formula are as follows: v (p) represents the goods amount for needing forecast date p, x1~x5For weight, publicity table
It is shown as:
x1+x2+x3+x4+x5=1
V (q)=v (q-1)+Δ v
Wherein, v (p) indicates the estimated goods amount of history goods amount, and p indicates forecast date,Indicate j in history goods amount data
The average goods amount of a week w,Indicate k d days average goods amount in history goods amount data,Indicate history goods amount number
According to the average goods amount of middle n m month d day,Indicate h days before needing to predict the goods amount date average goods amounts, v (q) indicates prediction
Goods amount on the day before date is arranged v (0)=v (today), and Δ v is to increase goods amount day, i.e., the goods amount of the previous day is multiplied by goods amount day
The result of growth rate.
In one embodiment, such as today is April 29, need to obtain the prediction goods amount of tomorrow, i.e. April 30
The estimated goods amount of history, obtains history goods amount data according to following condition to predict:
1) today, April 29 was Monday, was obtained on customer historical, the history goods amount average value on each Monday is
2) today is 29, is obtained on customer historical, the history goods amount average value on every month 29 is
3) today is April 29, is obtained on customer historical, and the average value of annual 29 Japanese goods amount in April is
4) the history goods amount average value in 7 days (i.e. 22-April 28 April) is in the past
5) by the way of daily progression rate, the goods amount for calculating April 29 is v (q).
The estimated goods amount on April 30 can be obtained by above-mentioned data.
In the present embodiment, different variable weights is set for different industries, different user, for example, frequent customer's history number
It is higher according to weight, in a kind of embodiment, it can set: x1=30%, x2=25%, x3=25%, x4=10%, x5=
10%), new client's Recent data weight is higher, in a kind of embodiment, can set: x1=15%, x2=15%, x3=
15%, x4=25%, x5=30%, in actual business operation, it can pass through in conjunction with prediction goods amount and true goods amount
Machine learning constantly carries out dynamic adjustment to the weight of each historical law data, will be with the practical closer history of goods amount
Regular weight improves, and the lesser weight of the degree of association reduces.
In the present embodiment step S2, real-time goods amount prediction of leaving the port specifically:
1) calculate Distribution Center forecast date currently leave the port in library goods amount；
2) leave the port order and the delivery of cargo order for obtaining Distribution Center and each outlet, calculate the estimated goods to leave the port
Amount carries out real-time goods amount prediction of leaving the port, and then obtains Realtime Prediction goods amount of leaving the port.
The estimated goods amount of the history left the port that the present embodiment is predicted according to history goods amount is as a result, be submitted to haulage vehicle pipe
Reason department, haulage vehicle administrative department can plan the haulage vehicle quantity that same day all directions need to prepare according to above data.And
And in same day actual operation, in conjunction with same day Distribution Center in library goods amount and it is expected that goods amount, carries out real-time goods amount prediction of leaving the port, with
Carry out vehicle adjust in real time, railway platform and handling group reservation, to meet the needs of efficiently dispatching.
In the present embodiment step S2, real-time goods amount prediction of approaching specifically:
1) calculate Distribution Center currently unload in library goods amount；
2) acquisition main line, which approaches, transports the vehicle arrival time of cargo, reaches what Distribution Center approached after calculating preset time
It is expected that goods amount, real-time goods amount prediction of approaching, and then the Realtime Prediction goods amount of leaving the port that obtains approaching.
The estimated goods amount of the history to approach that the present embodiment is predicted according to history goods amount is as a result, be submitted to haulage vehicle pipe
Reason department, haulage vehicle administrative department can plan that the same day needs the haulage vehicle quantity prepared according to above data.And combine battalion
The goods amount of single non-prestowage has been recorded in industry portion, according to the estimated delivery availability of related order, way information etc. calculate main line vehicle program into
ETA estimated time of arrival, and it is expected that real-time inward cargo amount meets the needs of efficiently dispatching to reserve railway platform and handling group.
The present embodiment passes through on the day of combining the estimated goods amount of history and Realtime Prediction goods to measure Distribution Center forecast date
It predicts goods amount, including leaves the port and predict goods amount and approach and predict goods amount, be used to forward scheduling logistic resources, such as railway platform, handling are small
Group, shipping yard, haulage vehicle etc. avoid Field Force's scheduling not in time, cause cargo accumulation and problem of resource waste, with
And Distribution Center goods to be transshipped reaches existing various resource allocation un-reasonable phenomenons after certain amount grade, improves Distribution Center
All transfer efficients are met customer need, and are increased customer satisfaction degree, and are reduced Distribution Center operation cost, are improved the core competitiveness of enterprise.
Embodiment two:
The present embodiment provides a kind of Distribution Center goods amount prediction meanss, for executing the method as described in embodiment one.Such as
It is the Distribution Center goods amount prediction meanss structural block diagram of the present embodiment shown in Fig. 2, comprising:
History goods amount prediction module 10: the history that forecast date is calculated for the history goods amount according to Distribution Center is pre-
Count goods amount, wherein the estimated goods amount prediction of history includes: the leave the port estimated goods amount prediction of history and estimated goods amount prediction of approaching；
Real-time goods amount prediction module 20: for obtaining in library goods amount and prediction day being calculated according to order goods information
Realtime Prediction goods amount on the day of phase, wherein real-time goods amount prediction include: leave the port real-time goods amount prediction and the real-time goods amount that approaches it is pre-
It surveys；
Whole prediction goods amount module 30: for combining the estimated goods amount of history and Realtime Prediction goods to measure Distribution Center prediction
The prediction goods amount of date.
In addition, goods amount prediction module includes: leave the port real-time goods amount prediction module 21 and the real-time goods amount prediction mould that approaches in real time
Block 22.
The process of real-time goods amount prediction specifically, real-time goods amount prediction module 21 of leaving the port leave the port specifically:
Calculate Distribution Center forecast date currently leave the port in library goods amount；
Leave the port order and the delivery of cargo order for obtaining Distribution Center and each outlet, calculate the estimated goods amount left the port,
Real-time goods amount prediction of leaving the port is carried out, and then obtains Realtime Prediction goods amount of leaving the port.
The real-time goods amount prediction module 22 that approaches approaches the process of real-time goods amount prediction specifically:
Calculate Distribution Center currently unload in library goods amount；
Acquisition main line, which approaches, to be transported the vehicle arrival time of cargo, and arrival Distribution Center approaches pre- after calculating preset time
Goods amount is counted, real-time goods amount prediction of approaching, and then the Realtime Prediction goods amount of leaving the port that obtains approaching.
In addition, the present invention also provides a kind of pre- measurement equipments of Distribution Center goods amount, comprising:
At least one processor, and the memory being connect at least one described processor communication；
Wherein, the processor is by calling the computer program stored in the memory, for executing such as embodiment
Method described in one.
In addition, the present invention also provides a kind of computer readable storage medium, computer-readable recording medium storage has calculating
Machine executable instruction, the method that wherein computer executable instructions are used to that computer to be made to execute as described in embodiment one.
The above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solution of the present invention., rather than its limitations, although referring to aforementioned each reality
Applying example, invention is explained in detail, those skilled in the art should understand that: it still can be to aforementioned each
Technical solution documented by embodiment is modified, or equivalent substitution of some or all of the technical features；And
These are modified or replaceed, the range for technical solution of various embodiments of the present invention that it does not separate the essence of the corresponding technical solution,
It should all cover within the scope of the claims and the description of the invention.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of Distribution Center goods amount prediction technique characterized by comprising
The prediction of history goods amount: the estimated goods amount of history that forecast date is calculated according to the history goods amount of Distribution Center, it is described to go through
The estimated goods amount prediction of history includes: the leave the port estimated goods amount prediction of history and estimated goods amount prediction of approaching；
Real-time goods amount prediction: it obtains real-time pre- in library goods amount and on the day of according to order goods information forecast date being calculated
Goods amount is counted, the real-time goods amount prediction includes: leave the port real-time goods amount prediction and real-time goods amount prediction of approaching；
Prediction on the day of measuring the Distribution Center forecast date in conjunction with the estimated goods amount of the history and the Realtime Prediction goods
Goods amount.
2. a kind of Distribution Center goods amount prediction technique according to claim 1, which is characterized in that the history goods amount prediction
Specifically: it obtains average goods amount data relevant to forecast date in historical data and day increases goods amount, prediction is calculated
The estimated goods amount of the history on date；
Calculation formula indicates are as follows:
x1+x2+x3+x4+x5=1
V (q)=v (q-1)+Δ v
Wherein, v (p) indicates the estimated goods amount of history, and p indicates forecast date,Indicate putting down for j week w in history goods amount data
Equal goods amount,Indicate the average goods amount of k d days every month in history goods amount data,Indicate history goods amount data
The average goods amount of middle n m month d day,Indicate h days before needing to predict the goods amount date average goods amounts, v (q) indicates prediction day
Goods amount on the day before phase, Δ v are day to increase goods amount, x1To x5For variable weight.
3. a kind of Distribution Center goods amount prediction technique according to claim 1, which is characterized in that the real-time goods amount of leaving the port
Prediction specifically:
Calculate that the Distribution Center forecast date currently leaves the port in library goods amount；
Leave the port order and the delivery of cargo order for obtaining the Distribution Center and each outlet, calculate the estimated goods amount left the port,
Real-time goods amount prediction of leaving the port is carried out, and then obtains Realtime Prediction goods amount of leaving the port.
4. a kind of Distribution Center goods amount prediction technique according to claim 1, which is characterized in that the real-time goods amount that approaches
Prediction specifically:
Calculate that the Distribution Center currently unloads in library goods amount；
Acquisition main line, which approaches, to be transported the vehicle arrival time of cargo, reaches the estimated goods that Distribution Center approaches after calculating preset time
Amount, real-time goods amount prediction of approaching, and then the Realtime Prediction goods amount of leaving the port that obtains approaching.
5. a kind of Distribution Center goods amount prediction meanss characterized by comprising
History goods amount prediction module: the estimated goods of history that forecast date is calculated for the history goods amount according to Distribution Center
Amount, the estimated goods amount prediction of the history include: the leave the port estimated goods amount prediction of history and estimated goods amount prediction of approaching；
Real-time goods amount prediction module: for obtaining in library goods amount and on the day of according to order goods information forecast date being calculated
Realtime Prediction goods amount, the real-time goods amount prediction includes: leave the port real-time goods amount prediction and real-time goods amount prediction of approaching；
Whole prediction goods amount module: for being measured in described allocate in conjunction with the estimated goods amount of the history and the Realtime Prediction goods
Prediction goods amount on the day of heart forecast date.
6. a kind of Distribution Center goods amount prediction meanss according to claim 5, which is characterized in that the real-time goods amount prediction
Module includes: leave the port real-time goods amount prediction module and the real-time goods amount prediction module that approaches.
7. a kind of Distribution Center goods amount prediction meanss according to claim 6, which is characterized in that the real-time goods amount of leaving the port
The process that real-time goods amount of leaving the port described in prediction module progress is predicted specifically:
Calculate that the Distribution Center forecast date currently leaves the port in library goods amount；
Leave the port order and the delivery of cargo order for obtaining the Distribution Center and each outlet, calculate the estimated goods amount left the port,
Real-time goods amount prediction of leaving the port is carried out, and then obtains Realtime Prediction goods amount of leaving the port.
8. a kind of Distribution Center goods amount prediction meanss according to claim 6, which is characterized in that the real-time goods amount that approaches
The process that the real-time goods amount that approaches described in prediction module progress is predicted specifically:
Calculate that the Distribution Center currently unloads in library goods amount；
Acquisition main line, which approaches, to be transported the vehicle arrival time of cargo, reaches the estimated goods that Distribution Center approaches after calculating preset time
Amount, real-time goods amount prediction of approaching, and then the Realtime Prediction goods amount of leaving the port that obtains approaching.
9. a kind of pre- measurement equipment of Distribution Center goods amount characterized by comprising
At least one processor；And the memory being connect at least one described processor communication；
Wherein, the processor is by calling the computer program stored in the memory, for execute as claim 1 to
4 described in any item methods.
10. a kind of computer readable storage medium, which is characterized in that the computer-readable recording medium storage has computer can
It executes instruction, the computer executable instructions are for making computer execute such as the described in any item methods of Claims 1-4.
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| CN111126643A (en) * | 2019-12-18 | 2020-05-08 | 秒针信息技术有限公司 | Platform reservation method, reservation device and readable storage medium |
| CN111325398A (en) * | 2020-02-19 | 2020-06-23 | 上海东普信息科技有限公司 | Method and system for predicting quantity of goods in network, and storage medium |
| CN111340278A (en) * | 2020-02-19 | 2020-06-26 | 上海东普信息科技有限公司 | Method for predicting destination cargo volume and storage medium |
| CN111415044A (en) * | 2020-03-24 | 2020-07-14 | 狄永杰 | Logistics distribution vehicle scheduling system and method based on big data |
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| CN115660535A (en) * | 2022-12-26 | 2023-01-31 | 北京京东振世信息技术有限公司 | Logistics information prediction method and device and computer readable storage medium |
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