CN111679315B - Soil radon-based earthquake precursor anomaly identification and earthquake prediction method - Google Patents
Soil radon-based earthquake precursor anomaly identification and earthquake prediction method Download PDFInfo
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- CN111679315B CN111679315B CN202010600664.7A CN202010600664A CN111679315B CN 111679315 B CN111679315 B CN 111679315B CN 202010600664 A CN202010600664 A CN 202010600664A CN 111679315 B CN111679315 B CN 111679315B
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- 239000002689 soil Substances 0.000 title claims abstract description 130
- 229910052704 radon Inorganic materials 0.000 title claims abstract description 123
- SYUHGPGVQRZVTB-UHFFFAOYSA-N radon atom Chemical compound [Rn] SYUHGPGVQRZVTB-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 title claims abstract description 123
- 239000002243 precursor Substances 0.000 title claims abstract description 34
- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 21
- 238000012544 monitoring process Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 55
- 230000002159 abnormal effect Effects 0.000 claims abstract description 16
- 230000000694 effects Effects 0.000 claims abstract description 11
- 230000005540 biological transmission Effects 0.000 claims description 12
- 238000007689 inspection Methods 0.000 claims description 5
- 238000007619 statistical method Methods 0.000 claims description 4
- 238000009412 basement excavation Methods 0.000 claims description 2
- 230000005856 abnormality Effects 0.000 abstract description 6
- 238000001514 detection method Methods 0.000 description 4
- BWJGGLDSZPWFHM-UHFFFAOYSA-N radon hydrate Chemical compound O.[Rn] BWJGGLDSZPWFHM-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 description 4
- 238000011160 research Methods 0.000 description 4
- XLYOFNOQVPJJNP-UHFFFAOYSA-N water Substances O XLYOFNOQVPJJNP-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 description 3
- 230000005526 G1 to G0 transition Effects 0.000 description 2
- 238000005056 compaction Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000011161 development Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000010586 diagram Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000005684 electric field Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000005516 engineering process Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000013277 forecasting method Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000005259 measurement Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000010295 mobile communication Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000012545 processing Methods 0.000 description 1
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- G01V1/01—
Abstract
The invention relates to a soil radon earthquake precursor anomaly identification and earthquake prediction method, which is used for judging the position of an interruption zone in an earthquake activity area and researching the distribution characteristics of the interruption zone, arranging a soil radon monitoring point in a region covered by soil to monitor the soil radon concentration of the interruption zone in real time, and transmitting data back to a monitoring center in real time by the soil radon monitoring point. And identifying weather, earthquake and precursor soil radon concentration abnormal information by combining weather and earthquake data, and preliminarily eliminating soil radon concentration abnormality caused by external interference. And setting a soil radon concentration increase threshold caused by earthquake precursors and a soil radon concentration increase threshold caused by earthquakes. Monitoring the soil radon concentration change of each monitoring point in real time, automatically identifying the soil radon concentration abnormal information of earthquake precursors, and when the soil radon concentration change of a plurality of adjacent monitoring points exceeds a threshold value, automatically early warning by a monitoring center so as to realize earthquake prediction.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to an earthquake advance forecasting technology, in particular to a soil radon earthquake precursor anomaly identification and earthquake forecasting method.
Background
Earthquake prediction is always a worldwide problem, and through the development of years, earthquake prediction methods are gradually increased. The existing methods are ground stress, natural electric field, infrasonic wave, radon, animal abnormity, satellite thermal infrared remote sensing, magnetic storm twofold method, earthquake cloud, abnormal superposition of induced tide force resonance and the like. The method for predicting the earthquake by measuring the radon is an important method at present, and is mainly used for observing the water radon abnormity in underground water to judge earthquake precursors, and has a good prediction effect on moderate and strong earthquakes, but the method for predicting the earthquake by measuring the water radon is not sensitive enough, so that the earthquake which is far away from a monitoring point or weak can not be predicted, and the earthquake direction can not be judged.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a soil radon earthquake precursor anomaly identification and earthquake prediction method, which is used for solving the problem that the existing radon measurement earthquake prediction method is not sensitive enough.
The invention is realized in the following way: a method for identifying and predicting earthquake precursor abnormality based on soil radon earthquake comprises the following steps:
a. and collecting known geological data, aeromagnetic data and remote sensing data of the seismic activity area, judging the position of the fracture zone in the seismic activity area and researching the distribution characteristics of the fracture zone.
b. And carrying out field survey inspection on the fracture zone to determine the position of the fracture zone, extracting the coordinates of the fracture zone in the earthquake active region, arranging soil radon monitoring points on the section covered by the soil to monitor the soil radon concentration of the fracture zone in real time, and transmitting data to a monitoring center in real time by the soil radon monitoring points.
c. The method comprises the steps of identifying weather, earthquake and precursor soil radon concentration abnormal information by combining weather and earthquake data, establishing soil radon data disturbance signs of various factors, and preliminarily eliminating soil radon concentration abnormality caused by external interference.
d. And (3) carrying out statistical analysis on the soil radon data of the monitoring points, taking the average value of the soil radon concentration stationary phase as a background value, and setting a soil radon concentration increase threshold caused by earthquake precursors and a soil radon concentration increase threshold caused by earthquakes.
e. Monitoring the soil radon concentration change of each monitoring point in real time, automatically identifying the soil radon concentration abnormal information of earthquake precursors, and when the soil radon concentration change of a plurality of adjacent monitoring points exceeds a threshold value, automatically early warning by a monitoring center so as to realize earthquake prediction.
In the step a, coordinate calibration and vectorization are carried out on the geological map based on a mapgis platform; calibrating and digitizing the coordinates of the aeromagnetic graph, extracting aeromagnetic data and solving a vertical first derivative, gridding the derivative, performing digital ground model analysis based on a mapgis platform, making a contour map, and extracting the coordinates of a fracture position reflected by a linear anomaly zone of the aeromagnetic vertical first derivative; calibrating the remote sensing image picture to a mapgis platform, and extracting the position coordinates of an image linear band; calibrating the geological map, the aeromagnetic map, the remote sensing map and the extracted fracture information to the same coordinate system, researching fracture characteristics reflected by all data, preferably selecting fracture zones with a certain scale and displayed simultaneously by the geological map, the aeromagnetic map and the remote sensing map, and extracting fracture zone coordinate data.
In the step b, the soil coverage depth of the soil radon monitoring points is not less than 1m, and the distance between the adjacent monitoring points is 10 to 20 km.
And in the step b, pit excavation is carried out at a set monitoring point, the pit depth is 0.5 to 1m, the diameter is 0.2m, a soil radon measuring instrument detector with a real-time data transmission module is buried in the pit, soil compaction is carried out, the soil radon concentration of a fracture zone is monitored in real time, and data are transmitted back to a monitoring center in real time by using a satellite or a GPRS system.
In step c, the radon in the soil caused by the weather is increased or reduced in a short time, generally representing the amplitude change within a few hours, wherein the range is-200% -105%.
In step d, the threshold value of the increase of the soil radon concentration caused by the earthquake precursor is 110% of the background value of the soil radon concentration, and the threshold value of the increase of the soil radon concentration caused by the earthquake is 120% of the background value of the soil radon concentration.
The method is used for identifying earthquake precursor abnormity and predicting the earthquake based on the detection of the radon concentration change in the soil, the gaseous radon is easier to migrate and gather than water radon dissolved in water, the earthquake can be predicted more sensitively, and the accuracy of earthquake prediction is improved. As the detection points are arranged on the fracture zone, the positions where geology is likely to occur are directly monitored, weak earthquakes can be predicted, and the earthquake positions and directions can be judged according to the positions of the monitoring points. After the monitoring points detect that the radon concentration of the soil is abnormal, abnormal data can be transmitted to a monitoring center, and after the radon concentration of the soil caused by external interference is initially eliminated, the monitoring center automatically performs early warning to realize earthquake prediction.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the present invention.
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of the soil radon real-time monitoring system of the present invention.
Detailed Description
As shown in fig. 1, the present invention comprises the steps of:
a. and collecting known geological data, aeromagnetic data and remote sensing data of the seismic activity area, judging the position of the fracture zone in the seismic activity area and researching the distribution characteristics of the fracture zone.
b. And performing on-site survey inspection on the fracture zone to determine the position of the fracture zone, extracting the coordinates of the fracture zone in the earthquake activity area, arranging a soil radon monitoring point on a zone covered by soil to monitor the soil radon concentration of the fracture zone in real time, and transmitting data back to a monitoring center in real time by the soil radon monitoring point.
c. The method comprises the steps of identifying weather, earthquake and precursor soil radon concentration abnormal information by combining weather and earthquake data, establishing soil radon data disturbance signs of various factors, and preliminarily eliminating soil radon concentration abnormality caused by external interference.
d. And (3) carrying out statistical analysis on the soil radon data of the monitoring points, taking the average value of the soil radon concentration stationary phase as a background value, and setting a soil radon concentration increase threshold caused by earthquake precursors and a soil radon concentration increase threshold caused by earthquakes.
e. Monitoring the soil radon concentration change of each monitoring point in real time, automatically identifying the soil radon concentration abnormal information of earthquake precursors, and when the soil radon concentration change of a plurality of adjacent monitoring points exceeds a threshold value, automatically early warning by a monitoring center so as to realize earthquake prediction.
In the step a, existing earthquake and geological data are analyzed, an earthquake forecasting research area is established on the basis, the earthquake forecasting research area is the earthquake activity area referred to in the invention, the existing geological data, aeromagnetic data and remote sensing data of the earthquake activity area are collected for further research and analysis, aeromagnetic gradient zones, aeromagnetic abnormal zones and remote sensing image linear zones are mainly analyzed, the position of a fracture zone is judged, and the distribution characteristics of the fracture zone are researched. The geological data, the aeromagnetic data and the remote sensing data comprise geological map data, aeromagnetic map data and remote sensing image map data.
Carrying out coordinate calibration and vectorization on the geological map based on the mapgis platform; calibrating and digitizing coordinates of the aeromagnetic map, extracting aeromagnetic data, solving a vertical first-order derivative, gridding the derivative, performing digital ground model analysis based on a mapgis platform, making a contour map, and extracting fracture position coordinates reflected by linear anomaly bands of the aeromagnetic vertical first-order derivative; calibrating the remote sensing image picture to a mapgis platform, and extracting the position coordinates of the image linear band; calibrating the geological map, the aeromagnetic map, the remote sensing map and the extracted fracture information to the same coordinate system, researching fracture characteristics reflected by all data, preferably selecting fracture zones with a certain scale and displayed simultaneously by the geological map, the aeromagnetic map and the remote sensing map, and extracting fracture zone coordinate data.
And b, performing on-site survey inspection on the fracture zone, extracting coordinate information of the fracture zone by using a GPS (global positioning system) locator according to the on-site survey inspection result, preferably arranging soil radon monitoring points in a soil covered area, wherein the soil coverage depth of the soil radon monitoring points is not less than 1m, and the distance between adjacent monitoring points is 10-20 km. And (3) digging a pit at a set monitoring point, wherein the pit depth is generally 0.5-1m, the diameter is 0.2m, burying a soil radon measuring instrument detector with a real-time data transmission module in the pit, backfilling soil to compact, monitoring the concentration of the radon in the soil in a fracture zone in real time, and transmitting the data back to a monitoring center in real time by using a satellite or a GPRS system.
In the step c, monitoring data of radon in soil in a fracture zone are analyzed in real time, the research area and surrounding meteorological changes are paid attention to in time, and data are collected, particularly, the weather changes such as rain, strong wind and the like are paid attention to in a key mode. Fully considering various interference conditions, researching the disturbance condition of soil radon data of each monitoring point, establishing soil radon data disturbance signs of various factors (soil radon caused by weather is increased or reduced in a short time, generally expressed in amplitude change within a few hours, and the range is-200% -105%), and preliminarily eliminating soil radon abnormity caused by external interference. And further combining information of the earthquake station, researching various characteristics of soil radon abnormity caused by distance and near to the monitoring point and intensity earthquake, and establishing a soil radon earthquake precursor identification mark.
In the step d, statistical analysis is carried out on soil radon data of the monitoring points, and under the condition that no external interference (climate change) exists, continuous and stable 24-hour continuous monitoring data are taken after soil radon concentration is stable, and the average value of the continuous and stable monitoring data is obtained and is the soil radon concentration background value. The threshold value of the increase of the soil radon concentration caused by the earthquake precursor is generally 110% of the background value of the soil radon concentration, and the threshold value of the increase of the soil radon concentration caused by the earthquake is generally 120% of the background value of the soil radon concentration. The initial value of the soil radon earthquake precursor abnormality is a soil radon concentration increase threshold value caused by the earthquake precursor, and the initial value of the soil radon earthquake abnormality is a soil radon concentration increase threshold value caused by the earthquake. According to the set soil radon concentration increase threshold value caused by earthquake precursors and the soil radon concentration increase threshold value caused by earthquakes, the big data are utilized to monitor the soil radon concentration change of each monitoring point in real time, and when the soil radon concentration change of a plurality of adjacent monitoring points exceeds the threshold values, the data monitoring center carries out automatic early warning so as to realize earthquake precursor abnormal recognition and earthquake prediction.
As shown in fig. 2, the soil radon concentration data of the monitoring points are transmitted to the monitoring center through the soil radon real-time monitoring system, and the soil radon real-time monitoring system comprises the soil radon monitoring system, a data transmission system and the monitoring center. A soil radon detector of the soil radon monitoring system is buried in soil of a fracture zone to monitor the radon concentration in the soil of the fracture zone, and detected data are transmitted through a Beidou data transmission module or a GPRS data transmission module. The Beidou data transmission module of the soil radon monitoring system transmits data to a monitoring center through a Beidou satellite, and the Beidou data transmission module of the monitoring center receives the data; the GPRS data transmission module of the soil radon monitoring system transmits data to a monitoring center through a mobile communication network, and the GPRS data transmission module of the monitoring center receives the data. And the data received by the Beidou data transmission module or the GPRS data transmission module is processed and analyzed by a data processing and analyzing center of the monitoring center.
The method is used for identifying earthquake precursor abnormity and predicting the earthquake based on the detection of the radon concentration change in the soil, the gaseous radon is easier to migrate and gather than water radon dissolved in water, the earthquake can be predicted more sensitively, and the accuracy of earthquake prediction is improved. As the detection points are arranged on the fracture zone, the positions where geology is likely to occur are directly monitored, weak earthquakes can be predicted, and the earthquake positions and directions can be judged according to the positions of the monitoring points. After the monitoring points detect that the radon concentration of the soil is abnormal, abnormal data can be transmitted to a monitoring center, and after the radon concentration of the soil caused by external interference is initially eliminated, the monitoring center automatically performs early warning to realize earthquake prediction.
Claims (5)
1. A soil radon earthquake precursor anomaly identification and earthquake prediction method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
a. collecting known geological data, aeromagnetic data and remote sensing data of the seismic activity area, judging the position of the fracture zone in the seismic activity area and researching the spreading characteristics of the fracture zone;
b. performing on-site survey inspection on the fracture zone to determine the position of the fracture zone, extracting the coordinates of the fracture zone in the earthquake active region, arranging a soil radon monitoring point on a land covered with soil to monitor the soil radon concentration of the fracture zone in real time, and transmitting data back to a monitoring center in real time by the soil radon monitoring point;
c. identifying abnormal soil radon concentration information of weather, earthquake and premonition thereof by combining weather and earthquake data, establishing soil radon data disturbance signs of various factors, and preliminarily eliminating the abnormal soil radon concentration caused by external interference;
d. carrying out statistical analysis on soil radon data of a monitoring point, taking an average value of a soil radon concentration stable section as a background value, and setting a soil radon concentration increase threshold caused by an earthquake precursor and a soil radon concentration increase threshold caused by the earthquake;
e. monitoring the soil radon concentration change of each monitoring point in real time, automatically identifying the soil radon concentration abnormal information of earthquake precursors, and when the soil radon concentration change of a plurality of adjacent monitoring points exceeds a threshold value, automatically early warning by a monitoring center so as to realize earthquake prediction.
2. The soil radon earthquake precursor anomaly identification and earthquake prediction method based on the claim 1, wherein in the step a, coordinate calibration and vectorization are carried out on the geological map based on a mapgis platform; calibrating and digitizing coordinates of the aeromagnetic map, extracting aeromagnetic data, solving a vertical first-order derivative, gridding the derivative, performing digital ground model analysis based on a mapgis platform, making a contour map, and extracting fracture position coordinates reflected by linear anomaly bands of the aeromagnetic vertical first-order derivative; calibrating the remote sensing image picture to a mapgis platform, and extracting the position coordinates of an image linear band; calibrating the geological map, the aeromagnetic map, the remote sensing map and the extracted fracture information to the same coordinate system, researching fracture characteristics reflected by each data, preferably selecting a fracture zone with a certain scale and simultaneously displaying the geological map, the aeromagnetic map and the remote sensing map, and extracting fracture zone coordinate data.
3. The soil radon earthquake precursor anomaly identification and earthquake prediction method based on claim 1, wherein in the step b, the soil coverage depth of soil radon monitoring points is not less than 1m, and the distance between adjacent monitoring points is 10-20 km.
4. The soil radon earthquake precursor anomaly identification and earthquake prediction method based on claim 1, wherein in the step b, pit excavation is carried out at a set monitoring point, the pit depth is 0.5-1m, the diameter is 0.2m, a soil radon measuring instrument detector with a real-time data transmission module is buried in the pit, soil is backfilled and compacted, the radon concentration of soil in a fracture zone is monitored in real time, and data are transmitted back to a monitoring center in real time by using a satellite or a GPRS system.
5. The soil radon earthquake precursor anomaly identification and earthquake prediction method based on soil radon earthquake precursor anomalies according to claim 1, wherein in step d, the soil radon concentration increase threshold caused by an earthquake precursor is 110% of the soil radon concentration background value, and the soil radon concentration increase threshold caused by an earthquake is 120% of the soil radon concentration background value.
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| CN110007357A (en) * | 2019-05-16 | 2019-07-12 | 核工业航测遥感中心 | A kind of aviation TEM and aviation MT joint inversion method |
| CN111208555A (en) * | 2020-01-14 | 2020-05-29 | 山东科技大学 | Active and passive detection and positioning method for underground coal fire danger sound waves |
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| CN110007357A (en) * | 2019-05-16 | 2019-07-12 | 核工业航测遥感中心 | A kind of aviation TEM and aviation MT joint inversion method |
| CN111208555A (en) * | 2020-01-14 | 2020-05-29 | 山东科技大学 | Active and passive detection and positioning method for underground coal fire danger sound waves |
| CN111220776A (en) * | 2020-01-21 | 2020-06-02 | 山东大学 | System and method for carrying out advanced geological prediction on radioactive radon carried by TBM (tunnel boring machine) |
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