CN111340295B - Green power supply development route optimization and assessment method based on envelope curve model - Google Patents
Green power supply development route optimization and assessment method based on envelope curve model Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a green power supply development route optimization and evaluation method based on an envelope curve model, which relates to the field of power supply planning of a power system and aims to solve the problem that a power supply planning scheme deviates from social benefit and green power supply development targets under incomplete information and decentralized decision, and comprises the following steps: calculating a power supply planning characteristic matching index, and sequencing a planning power supply set according to the index; establishing an upper envelope curve optimization model and a lower envelope curve optimization model of a green power supply development route; and evaluating the power supply planning scheme according to the upper and lower envelope optimization models of the green power supply development route. The invention improves the defects that the original power supply planning and evaluating method is difficult to adapt to the change of external boundary conditions, the deviation degree of the power supply development route cannot be evaluated, the model calculation is complex, and the like, and provides the green power supply development route planning optimization and evaluating method which has high inclusion degree, strong flexibility, convenient practice and easy operation from the enveloping line angle, so as to fully reflect the strategic targets of energy sources, social benefits and benefit demands of all parties, and be beneficial to guiding and evaluating the power supply planning construction of the power supply system in the near and far range region.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a power supply planning optimization and evaluation method of a power system, in particular to a green power supply development route optimization and evaluation method based on an envelope model.
Background
The improvement of the power generation amount duty ratio of the green power supply in the power system is a common target of the global and national power supply development strategy. The basic goal of green power supply planning is to realize the maximization of the green power supply duty ratio when meeting the load demand in the system, and the maximization of the social benefit is realized when the power supply output in the regional power system is completely matched with the load demand. However, power planning and development under the power market involve a plurality of participants, and from the economic perspective, each participant in the power planning has the characteristic of 'limited rationality' decision, namely, the participants have difficulty in acquiring complete information and making complete rationality decisions, and only try to pursue limited rationality within the capability range, and pursue 'satisfaction' standards in decisions rather than optimal standards. Therefore, the power supply planning is used as a multi-variable and multi-constraint complex decision optimization problem, the optimal solutions sought by all the participants are different, and the proposed power supply planning scheme is difficult to meet social benefits and benefit appeal of all the participants and deviates from a green power supply development target to a great extent.
At present, a typical power supply planning optimization model at home and abroad generally adopts the minimum current value of total cost as an objective function, and only the economic benefit of a power supply developer is considered, the influence of the current power supply structure and load characteristics on planning power supply selection is not considered, and the social benefit reduction and investment waste caused by unmatched power supply output and load requirements are not considered. Some improved power supply planning optimization models attempt to solve the problem of incomplete decision information by increasing decision variables and constraint conditions and improving the complexity of an objective function, but on one hand, the increase of model variables can cause dimension disaster and solving difficulty, and on the other hand, because the data volume required by model solving is large, the detailed data is difficult to obtain from various power supply planning participants with dispersed decisions and different requirements. In addition, the power supply planning optimization scheme obtained according to various optimization model methods is single in result, the actual power supply construction process is influenced by the 'limited rationality' decision limit of each party and uncertain factors of the external environment, planning construction is difficult to carry out according to the obtained optimization scheme result, and the method is poor in adaptability and practicality.
In order to avoid the situation that the power supply planning optimization scheme under the 'limited rational' decision of each participant is difficult to adapt to the change of external boundary conditions, the deviation situation of the power supply planning optimization scheme relative to the green power supply development route cannot be estimated, and the problem of complex calculation of a planning model caused by excessive decision variables is solved, the green power supply development route planning optimization and estimation method which has high inclusion degree, strong flexibility, convenient practice and easy operation is required to be provided so as to fully reflect the strategic targets of energy sources, social benefits and benefit appeal of each party, and is beneficial to guiding and estimating the power supply planning construction of a near-long-term regional power system.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above analysis, the present invention aims to provide a green power supply development route optimization and evaluation method based on an envelope model, which is used for solving the above problems.
The aim of the invention is mainly realized by the following technical scheme:
an envelope model-based green power supply development route optimization and assessment method, the method comprising the steps of:
step 1: defining and calculating a power supply planning characteristic matching index, and sequencing a planning power supply set according to the index;
step 2: establishing a lower envelope optimization model of a green power supply development route;
step 3: an upper envelope curve optimization model of a green power supply development route is established;
step 4: evaluating a power supply planning scheme according to an upper envelope curve optimization model and a lower envelope curve optimization model of a green power supply development route;
in the step 1, a power supply planning characteristic matching index is calculated, and a planning power supply set is ordered according to the index, and the steps are as follows:
1) Carrying out power and electricity balance calculation on the current horizontal annual power supply installation and the nth calculation horizontal annual load demand in a power system of a certain area to obtain annual electricity shortage Q of the power system of the area under the calculation horizontal year Year of life Electric quantity deficiency Q in dead period Dried cake The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Defining and calculating a regional power system withered electricity shortage ratio index Q, namely
2) Collecting annual energy production P of a certain (class of) planned power supply Year of life And withered period power generation amount P Dried cake . Defining and calculating a power generation amount ratio index P in the dead period of the power supply, namely:
3) Defining and calculating a power supply planning characteristic matching index M of a certain (class) planning power supply, namely
M＝|P-Q| (3)
Calculating power planning characteristic matching indexes M of j (class) planning power supplies of the regional power system according to the formula (3) 1 、M 2 ……M j . The power supply unit taking fossil fuel as primary energy has strong regulation capability, and the power supply planning characteristic matching index M can be considered as 0;
4) For M 1 、M 2 ……M j The power supply planning characteristic matching index M is arranged from small to large, and the planning power supply with the front order is considered to have higher matching degree with the system load demand characteristic under the calculation level year;
in the step 2, a lower envelope optimization model of the green power supply development route is established. The model adopts the minimization of the water discarding amount as an optimization target, and a power supply planning scheme meets the annual load demand of a calculation level as a constraint condition; FIG. 1 is a computational flow diagram of a lower envelope optimization model for building a green power development path according to the present invention;
the calculation steps are now described in detail with reference to fig. 1, as follows:
1) Obtaining a planning power supply set G= { G which is matched with the system load demand characteristic from high to low according to the step 1 1 ,G 2 …G n }, wherein G i For the programming power supply of the ith bit, i=1, 2 … … n;
2) Sequentially selecting the planning power supply G from the set G i Adding the current power supply set J of the regional power grid into the current power supply set J of the regional power grid, and entering the next calculation;
3) According to the calculated annual load demand, forPower supply set J+G i And (3) performing power and electricity balance calculation. If the power and electricity requirement of the calculated horizontal year is met, entering the next step of calculation; if not, power supply G i Join set J, return to 2);
4) Judging the water discarding electric quantity A according to the electric power electric quantity balance calculation result 1 And the new electric quantity A 2 The magnitude relationship between them, if A 1 <＝A 2 Then power supply G i Adding lower envelope power supply planning scheme set J+G Lower part(s) (t) end of calculation; if A 1 >A 2 Does not take G i Put into collection J and back to 2);
in the step 3, an upper envelope optimization model of a green power supply development route is established; the model adopts the maximization of the power generation amount of the green power supply as an optimization target, and the power supply planning scheme meets the annual load demand of the calculation level as a constraint condition; FIG. 2 is a flow chart of the calculation of an upper envelope optimization model for building a green power development path according to the present invention;
the calculation steps are now described in detail with reference to fig. 2, as follows:
1) Obtaining a planning power supply set G= { G which is matched with the system load demand characteristic from high to low according to the step 1 1 ,G 2 …G n }, wherein G j I=1, 2 … … n for the planned power supply for the j-th bit of the sequence;
2) Sequentially selecting the planning power supply G from the set G j Adding the current power supply set J of the regional power grid into the current power supply set J of the regional power grid, and entering the next calculation;
3) Judgment G j Whether it is a green power supply: if G j Is green power supply, then power supply G j Adding the current power supply set J of the regional power grid, and jumping to the step 5); if G j And (5) not a green power supply, and entering the next calculation. The green power supply refers to wind power, photovoltaic and hydropower;
4) If other green power supplies exist in the planning power supply set G, G is not needed j Put into collection J, go back to step 3); if the planning power supply set G has no other green power supplies, sequentially selecting the non-green power supplies G which are ranked at the front from the set G j Joining a regional power gridIn the state power supply set J, entering the next calculation;
5) According to the calculated horizontal annual load demand, the power supply is assembled with J+G j And (3) performing power and electricity balance calculation. If the power and electricity requirement of the calculated horizontal year is met, entering the next step of calculation; if not, power supply G j Join set J, return to 3);
6) Judging the water discarding electric quantity A according to the electric power electric quantity balance calculation result 1 Setting limit value A for water discarding electric quantity 3 The magnitude relationship between them, if A 1 <＝A 3 Then power supply G j Adding upper envelope power supply planning scheme set J+G Upper part (t) end of calculation; if A 1 >A 3 Does not take G j Put into collection J and back to 2);
in the step 4, the power planning scheme is evaluated according to the upper and lower envelope optimization models of the green power development route, and the steps are as follows:
1) Respectively obtaining a power supply planning scheme set of lower and upper envelopes meeting the load demands of different calculation levels in step 2 and step 3, namely:
J+G lower part(s) (t)＝{J+G Lower part(s) (1),J+G Lower part(s) (2)…J+G Lower part(s) (n)}
J+G Upper part (t)＝{J+G Upper part (1),J+G Upper part (2)…J+G Upper part (n)} (4)
In the formula (4):
J+G lower part(s) (t) a social benefit optimal power supply planning scheme set meeting the 1 st to n th calculation horizontal annual load demands;
J+G upper part (t) a green power supply development planning scheme set meeting the 1 st to n th calculation horizontal annual load demands;
2) And defining a power supply planning scheme to be evaluated, which meets the 1 st to n th calculation level annual load demands, as J+D (t).
3) Calculation of J+G Lower part(s) (t)、J+G Upper part And (3) indexes such as green power source duty ratio R (t) and water discarding electric quantity A (t) of (t) and J+D (t), namely:
A(t)＝P hair brush (t)-P By using (t) (6)
In formula (5): h (t) is the water installation capacity of the t-th calculated horizontal year;
w (t) is the wind power installation capacity of the t-th calculated horizontal year;
s (t) is the photovoltaic installed capacity of the t-th calculated horizontal year;
g (t) is all power supply installed capacity of the t-th calculated horizontal year;
P hair brush (t) calculating all power generation capacity of the power supply in the horizontal year for the t th;
P by using (t) calculating the load electricity consumption of the horizontal year for the t-th calculation;
4) According to the previous step, a green power supply duty ratio index curve R of an upper envelope power supply planning scheme and a lower envelope power supply planning scheme under each calculation level year is obtained Upper part (t)、R Lower part(s) (t) Water-discard electric quantity index Curve A Upper part (t)、A Lower part(s) (t) respectively forming curves R Upper part (t)、R Lower part(s) (t) is the section S of the upper and lower envelopes 1 In curve A Upper part (t)、A Lower part(s) (t) is the section S of the upper and lower envelopes 2 Wherein: t=1, 2 … … n. FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of power supply planning scheme evaluation using upper and lower envelope optimization models;
5) If the green power supply duty ratio index R of the power supply planning scheme J+D (t) to be evaluated To be treated (t) Water-discard electric quantity index A To be treated (t) are both located in the upper and lower envelope forms section S 1 、S 2 Judging the power planning scheme J+D (t) to be evaluated in the t-th calculation level year, simultaneously meeting the targets of better green power development and better social benefit, and entering the next calculation; otherwise, judging that the power planning scheme J+D (t) to be evaluated in the t-th calculation horizontal year cannot meet the requirements of green power development and social benefit optimization at the same time;
6) Judging deviation J+D (t) of power supply planning scheme to be evaluated from J+G Lower part(s) (t)、J+G Upper part The degree of (t); meter with a meter bodyCalculating R To be treated (t) relative to R Upper part (t)、R Lower part(s) Distance L in (t) Upper part 、L Lower part(s) The method comprises the following steps:
L upper part ＝|R Upper part (t)-R To be treated (t)| (7)
L Lower part(s) ＝|R Lower part(s) (t)-R To be treated (t)| (8)
If L Upper part <＝L Lower part(s) Judging that the power supply planning scheme J+D (t) to be evaluated deviates to a green power supply development route; if L Upper part >L Lower part(s) And judging that the power supply planning scheme J+D (t) to be evaluated deviates to the social benefit optimization development route.
The green power supply development route optimizing and evaluating method based on the envelope curve model can solve the problems that the power supply planning scheme deviates from social benefits and green power supply development targets under incomplete information and decentralized decision, overcomes the defects that the original power supply planning and evaluating method is difficult to adapt to external boundary condition change, the deviation degree of the power supply development route cannot be evaluated, model calculation is complex and the like, is applied to the power supply planning and evaluating field of a power system, can fully reflect energy strategy targets, social benefits and benefit appeal of each party, and is beneficial to guiding and evaluating power supply planning construction of the power system in a near-long-term region.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a lower envelope optimization model for establishing a green power supply development route;
FIG. 2 is a schematic flow chart of an upper envelope optimization model for establishing a green power supply development route;
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of power supply planning scheme evaluation using upper and lower envelope optimization models;
fig. 4A and fig. 4B are schematic diagrams of power supply planning schemes evaluation by using an upper envelope optimization model and a lower envelope optimization model in a certain province;
fig. 5 is a schematic flow chart of a green power supply development route optimization and evaluation method based on an envelope curve model.
Detailed Description
Certain embodiments of the present invention are described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings, which form a part hereof, and together with the embodiments of the present invention serve to explain the principles of the present invention.
The invention discloses a green power supply development route optimization and evaluation method based on an envelope curve model, which is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step 1: defining and calculating a power supply planning characteristic matching index, and sequencing a planning power supply set according to the index;
step 2: establishing a lower envelope optimization model of a green power supply development route;
step 3: an upper envelope curve optimization model of a green power supply development route is established;
step 4: and evaluating the power supply planning scheme according to the upper and lower envelope optimization models of the green power supply development route.
In the step 1, a power supply planning characteristic matching index is calculated, and a planning power supply set is ordered according to the index, and the steps are as follows:
1) Carrying out power and electricity balance calculation on the current horizontal annual power supply installation and the nth calculation horizontal annual load demand in a power system of a certain area to obtain annual electricity shortage Q of the power system of the area under the calculation horizontal year Year of life Electric quantity deficiency Q in dead period Dried cake The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Defining and calculating a regional power system withered electricity shortage ratio index Q, namely
2) Collecting annual energy production P of a certain (class of) planned power supply Year of life And withered period power generation amount P Dried cake . Defining and calculating a power generation amount ratio index P in the dead period of the power supply, namely:
3) Defining and calculating a power supply planning characteristic matching index M of a certain (class) planning power supply, namely
M＝|P-Q| (3)
Calculating power planning characteristic matching indexes M of j (class) planning power supplies of the regional power system according to the formula (3) 1 、M 2 ……M j . Particularly, the power supply unit taking fossil fuel as primary energy has strong regulation capability, and the power supply planning characteristic matching index M can be considered as 0;
4) For M 1 、M 2 ……M j The power supply planning characteristic matching index M is arranged from small to large, and the planning power supply with the front order is considered to have higher matching degree with the system load demand characteristic under the calculation level year;
in the embodiment, for a certain power saving system, the 5 th year, the 10 th year and the 15 th year are respectively taken as the calculated horizontal years on the basis of the current year, the current power supply installed capacity of the province is 10367 ten thousand kW, and 13 power supplies (class) are planned. In this embodiment, WHPS power and electricity balance calculation software is used to calculate the load prediction result and the current situation of the 15 th year on the basis of the current situation of the current year power installation and the current situation of the current year so as to obtain the electricity shortage of the horizontal year.
The power system dead period and shortage electric quantity ratio index Q, the power supply dead period and electric generation amount ratio index P and the power supply planning characteristic matching index M are calculated according to the method of the step 1, and the method comprises the following steps:
in the step 2, a lower envelope optimization model of the green power supply development route is established, and the steps are as follows:
fig. 1 is a flowchart of the calculation of the lower envelope optimization model for building the green power supply development line according to the present invention. The calculation steps are now described in detail with reference to fig. 1, as follows:
1) Obtaining a planning power supply set G= { G which is matched with the system load demand characteristic from high to low according to the step 1 1 ,G 2 …G n }, wherein G i For the programming power supply of the ith bit, i=1, 2 … … n;
2) Sequentially selecting the planning power supply G from the set G i Adding current power supply set of regional power gridIn the step J, entering the next calculation;
3) According to the calculated horizontal annual load demand, the power supply is assembled with J+G i And (3) performing power and electricity balance calculation. If the power and electricity requirement of the calculated horizontal year is met, entering the next step of calculation; if not, power supply G i Join set J, return to 2);
4) Judging the water discarding electric quantity A according to the electric power electric quantity balance calculation result 1 And the new electric quantity A 2 The magnitude relationship between them, if A 1 <＝A 2 Then power supply G i Adding lower envelope power supply planning scheme set J+G Lower part(s) (t) end of calculation; if A 1 >A 2 Does not take G i Put into collection J and back to 2);
in the embodiment, the system requirement matching degree sequencing result of 8 planning power supplies is obtained according to the step 1. According to the method of the step 2, the lower envelope power supply planning scheme for meeting the load prediction requirements of the calculated horizontal years on the basis of the current years is calculated as follows:
| lower envelope power supply planning scheme | Current year of life | Current year +5 years | Current year +10 years | Current year +15 years |
| Main assembly machine (ten thousands kW) | 10367 | 10607 | 12227 | 13875 |
| Water installation (ten thousands kW) | 7563 | 7563 | 7983 | 8393 |
| Wind power installation (ten thousands kW) | 930 | 930 | 1626 | 2256 |
| Photovoltaic installation (ten thousands kW) | 341 | 341 | 465 | 600 |
| Thermal power machine (ten thousands kW) | 1533 | 1773 | 2153 | 2626 |
| Power supply installation machine with newly-increased planning function | Current year +5 years | Current year +10 years | Current year +15 years |
| New assembly machine (ten thousands kW) | 240 | 1620 | 1648 |
| Newly added planning hydropower (ten thousands kW) | 420 | 410 | |
| Planning tap water and electricity 1 | 420 | ||
| Planning tap water and electricity 2 | 300 | ||
| Planning large and medium hydropower 9 | 110 | ||
| New planned wind power (ten thousands kW) | 0 | 696 | 630 |
| New programming photovoltaic (ten thousands kW) | 0 | 124 | 135 |
| Thermal power new planning (ten thousands kW) | 240 | 380 | 473 |
In the step 3, an upper envelope optimization model of the green power supply development route is established. The model adopts the maximization of the power generation amount of the green power supply as an optimization target, and the power supply planning scheme meets the annual load demand of the calculation level as a constraint condition;
fig. 2 is a flowchart of the calculation of the upper envelope optimization model for building the green power supply development line according to the present invention, and the calculation steps will now be described in detail according to fig. 2, as follows:
1) Obtaining a planning power supply set G= { G which is matched with the system load demand characteristic from high to low according to the step 1 1 ,G 2 …G n }, wherein G j I=1, 2 … … n for the planned power supply for the j-th bit of the sequence;
2) Sequentially selecting the planning power supply G from the set G j Adding the current power supply set J of the regional power grid into the current power supply set J of the regional power grid, and entering the next calculation;
3) Judgment G j Whether it is a green power supply: if G j Is green power supply, then power supply G j Adding the current power supply set J of the regional power grid, and jumping to the step 5); if G j And (5) not a green power supply, and entering the next calculation. The green power supply refers to wind power, photovoltaic and hydropower;
4) If other green power supplies exist in the planning power supply set G, G is not needed j Put into collection J, go back to step 3); if planningThe power supply set G has no other green power supplies, and non-green power supplies G which are ranked at the front are sequentially selected from the set G j Adding the current power supply set J of the regional power grid into the current power supply set J of the regional power grid, and entering the next calculation;
5) According to the calculated horizontal annual load demand, the power supply is assembled with J+G j And (3) performing power and electricity balance calculation. If the power and electricity requirement of the calculated horizontal year is met, entering the next step of calculation; if not, power supply G j Join set J, return to 3);
6) Judging the water discarding electric quantity A according to the electric power electric quantity balance calculation result 1 Setting limit value A for water discarding electric quantity 3 The magnitude relationship between them, if A 1 <＝A 3 Then power supply G j Adding upper envelope power supply planning scheme set J+G Upper part (t) end of calculation; if A 1 >A 3 Does not take G j Put into collection J and back to 2);
in the embodiment, the system requirement matching degree sequencing result of 8 planning power supplies is obtained according to the step 1. According to the method of step 3, the water discard electric quantity is set to be 50 hundred million kWh. The upper envelope power supply planning scheme for calculating the horizontal annual load prediction requirement on the basis of the current year is calculated to meet the 5 th, 10 th and 15 th years, and is as follows:
| upper envelope power supply planning scheme | Current year of life | Current year +5 years | Current year +10 years | Current year +15 years |
| Assembling machineUniversal kW) | 10367 | 10773 | 12505 | 13356 |
| Water installation (ten thousands kW) | 7563 | 7563 | 8881 | 9102 |
| Wind power installation (ten thousands kW) | 930 | 1216 | 1626 | 2256 |
| Photovoltaic installation (ten thousands kW) | 341 | 341 | 465 | 465 |
| Thermal power machine (ten thousands kW) | 1533 | 1653 | 1533 | 1533 |
| Power supply installation machine with newly-increased planning function | Current year +5 years | Current year +10 years | Current year +15 years |
| New assembly machine (ten thousands kW) | 406 | 1732 | 851 |
| Newly added planning hydropower (ten thousands kW) | 1318 | 221 | |
| Planning tap water and electricity 1 | 420 | ||
| Planning tap water and electricity 2 | 300 | ||
| Planning large and medium hydropower 3 | 180 | ||
| Planning large and medium hydropower 4 | 19.5 | ||
| Planning large and medium-sized hydropower plant 5 | 60 | ||
| Planning large and medium-sized hydropower station 6 | 210 | ||
| Planning of large and medium hydropower 7 | 18 | ||
| Planning large and medium hydropower 8 | 110 | ||
| Planning large and medium hydropower 9 | 110 | ||
| Planning large and medium-sized hydropower station 10 | 111 | ||
| New planned wind power (ten thousands kW) | 286 | 410 | 630 |
| New programming photovoltaic (ten thousands kW) | 0 | 124 | 0 |
| Thermal power new planning (ten thousands kW) | 120 | -120 | 0 |
In the step 4, the power planning scheme is evaluated according to the upper and lower envelope optimization models of the green power development route, and the steps are as follows:
1) Respectively obtaining a power supply planning scheme set of lower and upper envelopes meeting the load demands of different calculation levels in step 2 and step 3, namely:
J+G lower part(s) (t)＝{J+G Lower part(s) (1),J+G Lower part(s) (2)…J+G Lower part(s) (n)}
J+G Upper part (t)＝{J+G Upper part (1),J+G Upper part (2)…J+G Upper part (n)} (4)
In the formula (4):
J+G lower part(s) (t) a social benefit optimal power supply planning scheme set meeting the 1 st to n th calculation horizontal annual load demands;
J+G upper part (t) a green power supply development planning scheme set meeting the 1 st to n th calculation horizontal annual load demands;
2) And defining a power supply planning scheme to be evaluated, which meets the 1 st to n th calculation level annual load demands, as J+D (t).
3) Calculation of J+G Lower part(s) (t)、J+G Upper part And (3) indexes such as green power source duty ratio R (t) and water discarding electric quantity A (t) of (t) and J+D (t), namely:
A(t)＝P hair brush (t)-P By using (t) (6)
In formula (5): h (t) is the water installation capacity of the t-th calculated horizontal year;
w (t) is the wind power installation capacity of the t-th calculated horizontal year;
s (t) is the photovoltaic installed capacity of the t-th calculated horizontal year;
g (t) is all power supply installed capacity of the t-th calculated horizontal year;
P hair brush (t) calculating all power generation capacity of the power supply in the horizontal year for the t th;
P by using (t) calculating the load electricity consumption of the horizontal year for the t-th calculation;
4) According to the previous step, a green power supply duty ratio index curve R of an upper envelope power supply planning scheme and a lower envelope power supply planning scheme under each calculation level year is obtained Upper part (t)、R Lower part(s) (t) Water-discard electric quantity index Curve A Upper part (t)、A Lower part(s) (t) respectively forming curves R Upper part (t)、R Lower part(s) (t) is the section S of the upper and lower envelopes 1 In curve A Upper part (t)、A Lower part(s) (t) is the section S of the upper and lower envelopes 2 Wherein: t=1, 2 … … n. FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of power supply planning scheme evaluation using upper and lower envelope optimization models;
5) If the green power supply duty ratio index R of the power supply planning scheme J+D (t) to be evaluated To be treated (t) Water-discard electric quantity index A To be treated (t) are both located in the upper and lower envelope forms section S 1 、S 2 Judging the power planning scheme J+D (t) to be evaluated in the t-th calculation level year, simultaneously meeting the targets of better green power development and better social benefit, and entering the next calculation; otherwise, judging that the power planning scheme J+D (t) to be evaluated in the t-th calculation horizontal year cannot meet the requirements of green power development and social benefit optimization at the same time;
6) Judging deviation J+D (t) of power supply planning scheme to be evaluated from J+G Lower part(s) (t)、J+G Upper part The degree of (t). Calculating R To be treated (t) relative to R Upper part (t)、R Lower part(s) Distance L in (t) Upper part 、L Lower part(s) The method comprises the following steps:
L upper part ＝|R Upper part (t)-R To be treated (t)| (7)
L Lower part(s) ＝|R Lower part(s) (t)-R To be treated (t)| (8)
If L Upper part <＝L Lower part(s) Judging that the power supply planning scheme J+D (t) to be evaluated deviates to a green power supply development route; if L Upper part >L Lower part(s) And judging that the power supply planning scheme J+D (t) to be evaluated deviates to the social benefit optimization development route.
In combination with the embodiment, according to the method of step 4, the green power duty ratio index R (t) and the water-discarding power index a (t) of the upper and lower envelope power planning schemes and a certain power planning scheme to be evaluated corresponding to the three calculation levels of the province are calculated as follows:
| electric quantity index of abandoned water | Current year +5 years | Current year +10 years | Current year +15 years |
| Under J+G (t) | 52 | 10 | 11 |
| J+G upper (t) | 54 | 39 | 49 |
| J+D(t) | 59 | 25 | 22 |
| Green power supply duty ratio index | Current year +5 years | Current year +10 years | Current year +15 years |
| Under J+G (t) | 83％ | 82％ | 81％ |
| J+G upper (t) | 85％ | 88％ | 89％ |
| J+D(t) | 86％ | 86％ | 84％ |
The green power supply duty ratio index R (t) and the water-discarding electric quantity index A (t) of the 1 st calculation level year (current year+5 years) of the power supply planning scheme to be evaluated are not positioned on the section S 1 、S 2 In the method, the 1 st calculation level year (current year+5 years) of the power planning scheme to be evaluated is judged to be incapable of meeting the requirements of green power development and social benefit optimization at the same time; the green power source duty ratio index R (t) and the water-discarding electric quantity index A (t) of the 2 nd and 3 rd computing level years (current year+10 years and current year+15 years) of the power source planning scheme to be evaluated are not positioned on the section S 1 、S 2 And the 2 nd and 3 rd computing level years (current year+10 years and current year+15 years) of the power supply planning scheme to be evaluated are judged to simultaneously meet the aims of better green power supply development and better social benefit.
And (3) calculating the degree of deviation of the power supply planning scheme to be evaluated from the upper envelope power supply planning scheme and the lower envelope power supply planning scheme according to the method in the step 4. Fig. 4A and fig. 4B are schematic diagrams of power supply planning schemes evaluation by using an upper envelope optimization model and a lower envelope optimization model in a certain province; the calculation is as follows:
calculation level year 2 (current year +10 years):
L upper part ＝|88％-86％|＝2％；
L Lower part(s) ＝|82％-86％|＝4％；
L Upper part <L Lower part(s) And judging that the power supply planning scheme to be evaluated is biased to optimize the green power supply development route.
Calculation of the 3 rd horizontal year (present year+15 years)
L Upper part ＝|89％-84％|＝5％；
L Lower part(s) ＝|81％-84％|＝3％；
L Upper part >L Lower part(s) And judging that the power supply planning scheme to be evaluated is biased to the social benefit optimization development route.
The above description is only one embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention, but any modifications, equivalents, improvements, etc. that fall within the spirit and principles of the present invention should be included in the scope of the present invention.
Claims (1)
1. The green power supply development route optimizing and evaluating method based on the envelope curve model is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
step 1: defining and calculating a power supply planning characteristic matching index, and sequencing a planning power supply set according to the index;
step 2: establishing a lower envelope optimization model of a green power supply development route;
step 3: an upper envelope curve optimization model of a green power supply development route is established;
step 4: evaluating a power supply planning scheme according to an upper envelope curve optimization model and a lower envelope curve optimization model of a green power supply development route;
wherein:
in the step 1, a power supply planning characteristic matching index is calculated, and a planning power supply set is ordered according to the index, and the steps are as follows:
1) Carrying out power and electricity balance calculation on the current horizontal annual power supply installation and the nth calculation horizontal annual load demand in a power system of a certain area to obtain annual electricity shortage Q of the power system of the area under the calculation horizontal year Year of life Electric quantity deficiency Q in dead period Dried cake The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Defining and calculating a regional power system withered electricity shortage ratio index Q, namely
2) Collecting annual energy production P of a planned power supply Year of life And withered period power generation amount P Dried cake The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Defining and calculating a power generation amount ratio index P in the dead period of the power supply, namely:
3) Defining and calculating a power supply planning characteristic matching index M of a planning power supply, namely
M＝|P-Q| (3)
Calculating power planning characteristic matching indexes M of j planning power supplies in the regional power system according to the formula (3) 1 、M 2 ……M j The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Wherein, the power supply planning characteristic matching index M of the coal-fired generator set and the gas-fired generator set is assigned to 0;
4) For M 1 、M 2 ……M j The power supply planning characteristic matching index M is arranged from small to large, and the planning power supply with the front order is considered to have higher matching degree with the system load demand characteristic under the calculation level year;
in the step 2, a lower envelope optimization model of a green power supply development route is established; the model adopts the minimization of the water discarding amount as an optimization target, and a power supply planning scheme meets the annual load demand of a calculation level as a constraint condition; the method comprises the following steps of establishing a calculation flow of a lower envelope optimization model of a green power supply development route:
1) Obtaining a planning power supply set G= { G which is matched with the system load demand characteristic from high to low according to the step 1 1 ,G 2 …G n }, wherein G i For the programming power supply of the ith bit, i=1, 2 … … n;
2) Sequentially selecting the planning power supply G from the set G i Adding the current power supply set J of the regional power grid into the current power supply set J of the regional power grid, and entering the next calculation;
3) According to the calculated horizontal annual load demand, the power supply is assembled with J+G i Performing electric power and electric quantity balance calculation; if the power and electricity requirement of the calculated horizontal year is met, entering the next step of calculation; if not, power supply G i Adding the set J, and returning to the step 2) in the step 2);
4) Judging the water discarding electric quantity A according to the electric power electric quantity balance calculation result 1 And the new electric quantity A 2 The magnitude relationship between them, if A 1 <＝A 2 Then power supply G i Adding lower envelope power supply planning scheme set J+G Lower part(s) (t) end of calculation; if A 1 >A 2 Does not take G i Put into set J and return to step 2Step 2);
in the step 3, an upper envelope optimization model of a green power supply development route is established; the model adopts the maximization of the power generation amount of the green power supply as an optimization target, and the power supply planning scheme meets the annual load demand of the calculation level as a constraint condition; the method comprises the following steps of establishing an upper envelope optimization model of a green power supply development route:
1) Obtaining a planning power supply set G= { G which is matched with the system load demand characteristic from high to low according to the step 1 1 ,G 2 …G n }, wherein G j I=1, 2 … … n for the planned power supply for the j-th bit of the sequence;
2) Sequentially selecting the planning power supply G from the set G j Adding the current power supply set J of the regional power grid into the current power supply set J of the regional power grid, and entering the next calculation;
3) Judgment G j Whether it is a green power supply: if G j Is green power supply, then power supply G j Adding the current power supply set J of the regional power grid, and jumping to the step 5); if G j Not a green power supply, and entering the next calculation; the green power supply refers to wind power, photovoltaic and hydropower;
4) If other green power supplies exist in the planning power supply set G, G is not needed j Put into collection J, return to step 3) in step 3); if the planning power supply set G has no other green power supplies, sequentially selecting the non-green power supplies G which are ranked at the front from the set G j Adding the current power supply set J of the regional power grid into the current power supply set J of the regional power grid, and entering the next calculation;
5) According to the calculated horizontal annual load demand, the power supply is assembled with J+G j Performing electric power and electric quantity balance calculation; if the power and electricity requirement of the calculated horizontal year is met, entering the next step of calculation; if not, power supply G j Adding the set J, and returning to the step 3) in the step 3);
6) Judging the water discarding electric quantity A according to the electric power electric quantity balance calculation result 1 Setting limit value A for water discarding electric quantity 3 The magnitude relationship between them, if A 1 <＝A 3 Then power supply G j Adding upper envelope power supply planning scheme set J+G Upper part (t) end of calculation; if A 1 >A 3 Does not take G j Put into collection J and return to step 2) in step 3);
in the step 4, the power planning scheme is evaluated according to the upper and lower envelope optimization models of the green power development route, and the steps are as follows:
1) Respectively obtaining a power supply planning scheme set of lower and upper envelopes meeting the load demands of different calculation levels in step 2 and step 3, namely:
J+G lower part(s) (t)＝{J+G Lower part(s) (1),J+G Lower part(s) (2)…J+G Lower part(s) (n)}
J+G Upper part (t)＝{J+G Upper part (1),J+G Upper part (2)…J+G Upper part (n)} (4)
In the formula (4):
J+G lower part(s) (t) a social benefit optimal power supply planning scheme set meeting the 1 st to n th calculation horizontal annual load demands;
J+G upper part (t) a green power supply development planning scheme set meeting the 1 st to n th calculation horizontal annual load demands;
2) Defining a power supply planning scheme set to be evaluated, which meets the 1 st to n th calculation level annual load demands, as J+D (t);
3) Calculation of J+G Lower part(s) (t)、J+G Upper part The green power source duty ratio R (t) and the water discarding electric quantity A (t) indexes of (t) and J+D (t), namely:
A(t)＝P hair brush (t)-P By using (t) (6)
In formula (5): h (t) is the water installation capacity of the t-th calculated horizontal year;
w (t) is the wind power installation capacity of the t-th calculated horizontal year;
s (t) is the photovoltaic installed capacity of the t-th calculated horizontal year;
g (t) is all power supply installed capacity of the t-th calculated horizontal year;
P hair brush (t) is the firstt power generation amounts of all power supplies in the horizontal year are calculated;
P by using (t) calculating the load electricity consumption of the horizontal year for the t-th calculation;
4) According to the previous step, a green power supply duty ratio index curve R of an upper envelope power supply planning scheme and a lower envelope power supply planning scheme under each calculation level year is obtained Upper part (t)、R Lower part(s) (t) Water-discard electric quantity index Curve A Upper part (t)、A Lower part(s) (t) respectively forming curves R Upper part (t)、R Lower part(s) (t) is the section S of the upper and lower envelopes 1 In curve A Upper part (t)、A Lower part(s) (t) is the section S of the upper and lower envelopes 2 Wherein: t=1, 2 … … n;
power supply planning scheme evaluation based on upper and lower envelope optimization models:
5) If the green power supply duty ratio index R of the power supply planning scheme J+D (t) to be evaluated To be treated (t) Water-discard electric quantity index A To be treated (t) are both located in the upper and lower envelope forms section S 1 、S 2 Judging the power planning scheme J+D (t) to be evaluated in the t-th calculation level year, simultaneously meeting the targets of better green power development and better social benefit, and entering the next calculation; otherwise, judging that the power planning scheme J+D (t) to be evaluated in the t-th calculation horizontal year cannot meet the requirements of green power development and social benefit optimization at the same time;
6) Judging deviation J+D (t) of power supply planning scheme to be evaluated from J+G Lower part(s) (t)、J+G Upper part The degree of (t); calculating R To be treated (t) relative to R Upper part (t)、R Lower part(s) Distance L in (t) Upper part 、L Lower part(s) The method comprises the following steps:
L upper part ＝|R Upper part (t)-R To be treated (t)| (7)
L Lower part(s) ＝|R Lower part(s) (t)-R To be treated (t)| (8)
If L Upper part <＝L Lower part(s) Judging that the power supply planning scheme J+D (t) to be evaluated deviates to a green power supply development route; if L Upper part >L Lower part(s) And judging that the power supply planning scheme J+D (t) to be evaluated deviates to the social benefit optimization development route.
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