CN111340295A - Green power supply development route optimization and evaluation method based on envelope model - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention provides an envelope model-based green power supply development route optimization and evaluation method, relates to the field of power supply planning of an electric power system, and aims to solve the problem that a power supply planning scheme deviates from social benefits and a green power supply development target under incomplete information and dispersed decision-making, and the method comprises the following steps: calculating power supply planning characteristic matching indexes, and sequencing a planning power supply set according to the indexes; establishing an upper envelope line optimization model and a lower envelope line optimization model of a green power supply development route; and evaluating the power supply planning scheme according to the upper envelope line optimization model and the lower envelope line optimization model of the green power supply development route. The invention improves the defects that the original power supply planning and evaluating method is difficult to adapt to the change of external boundary conditions, cannot evaluate the deviation degree of the power supply development route, is complex in model calculation and the like, and provides the green power supply development route planning optimizing and evaluating method which is high in inclusion degree, strong in flexibility, convenient to practice and easy to operate from the perspective of an envelope line, so that the strategic target of energy, social benefits and the interest requirements of all parties are fully reflected, and the power supply planning construction of a near-term and far-term area is guided and evaluated.

Description

Green power supply development route optimization and evaluation method based on envelope model

Technical Field

The invention relates to a power supply planning optimization and evaluation method of a power system, in particular to a green power supply development route optimization and evaluation method based on an envelope model.

Background

The occupation ratio of the generated energy of the green power supply in the power system is a common target of power supply development strategies in the world and China. The basic goal of green power supply planning is to achieve maximum green power supply ratio while meeting the load requirements in the system, and to achieve maximum social benefit when the power output in the regional power system is completely matched with the load requirements. However, power supply planning and development under electric power marketization involve a lot of participants, and from the economic point of view, each participant in power supply planning has the characteristic of 'rational' decision, namely, the participant is difficult to acquire complete information and make a complete rational decision, only can try to pursue the rational within the capability range, and pursue 'satisfaction' standard in the decision, rather than the optimal standard. Therefore, the power supply planning is used as a multivariable and multi-constraint complex decision optimization problem, the optimal solutions sought by all participants are different, and the proposed power supply planning scheme not only is difficult to meet social benefits and interest demands of all parties, but also deviates from the development target of green power supplies to a great extent.

At present, a typical power supply planning optimization model at home and abroad generally adopts the minimum current value of total cost as an objective function, only the economic benefit of a power supply developer is considered in the model, the influence of the current power supply structure and load characteristics on planning power supply selection is not considered, and the social benefit reduction and investment waste caused by mismatching of power supply output and load requirements are not considered. Some improved power supply planning optimization models try to solve the problem of incomplete decision information by increasing decision variables and constraint conditions and improving the complexity of an objective function, but on one hand, dimensionality disaster and difficulty in solving are caused by the increase of the model variables, and on the other hand, due to the fact that the data size required by model solving is large, detailed data are difficult to obtain from power supply planning participants with dispersed decisions and different appeal. In addition, the power supply planning optimization scheme obtained according to various optimization model methods has a single result, is influenced by the 'rational' decision limitation of each party and the uncertain factors of the external environment in the actual power supply construction process, is difficult to plan and construct according to the obtained optimization scheme result, and has poor adaptability and practicability.

In order to avoid the problem that a power supply planning optimization scheme under the 'rational' decision of each participant is difficult to adapt to the change of external boundary conditions and cannot evaluate the deviation condition of the power supply planning optimization scheme relative to a green power supply development route, and solve the problem of complex planning model calculation caused by excessive decision variables, a green power supply development route planning optimization and evaluation method which is high in inclusion degree, strong in flexibility, convenient to practice and easy to operate is required to be provided, so that the strategic target of energy, the social benefit and the interest requirements of each party are fully reflected, and the power supply planning construction of a near-term and long-term area power supply system is favorably guided and evaluated.

Disclosure of Invention

In view of the above analysis, the present invention aims to provide a green power source development route optimization and evaluation method based on an envelope model, which is used for solving the above problems.

The purpose of the invention is mainly realized by the following technical scheme:

a green power supply development route optimization and evaluation method based on an envelope model comprises the following steps:

step 1: defining and calculating power supply planning characteristic matching indexes, and sequencing a planning power supply set according to the indexes;

step 2: establishing a lower envelope optimization model of a green power supply development route;

and step 3: establishing an upper envelope optimization model of a green power supply development route;

and 4, step 4: evaluating a power supply planning scheme according to an upper envelope line optimization model and a lower envelope line optimization model of a green power supply development route;

in the step 1, a power supply planning characteristic matching index is calculated, and a planning power supply set is sorted according to the index, and the steps are as follows:

1) carrying out electric power and electric quantity balance calculation on the current horizontal year power supply installation and the nth horizontal year load calculation requirement in a certain regional electric power system, and calculating to obtain the annual electric quantity shortage Q of the regional electric power system in the horizontal year_{Year of year}And shortage of electricity in dry period Q_{Withered food}(ii) a Defining and calculating a regional power system dead-time shortage electric quantity ratio index Q, namely

2) Collecting annual energy production P of certain (class) planning power supply_{Year of year}Power generation amount P in peaceful period_{Withered food}. Defining and calculating the power generation amount ratio index P in the power supply dead period, namely:

3) defining and calculating a power supply planning characteristic matching index M for a certain (class of) planned power supply, i.e.

M＝|P-Q| (3)

Calculating power planning characteristic matching index M of j (class) planning power supplies of the regional power system according to formula (3)₁、M₂……M_j. The power supply unit taking fossil fuel as primary energy has strong regulating capacity, and the power supply planning characteristic matching index M can be regarded as 0;

4) to M₁、M₂……M_jThe planning power supplies with the power supply planning characteristic matching indexes M ranked in the front are considered to be higher in matching degree with the system load demand characteristics in the calculation level year;

in the step 2, a lower envelope optimization model of a green power supply development route is established. The model adopts the minimization of the water abandon power as an optimization target, and a power supply planning scheme meets the load requirement under the calculation level year as a constraint condition; FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a calculation for establishing a lower envelope optimization model for a green power supply development line according to the present invention;

the calculation steps are now described in detail with reference to fig. 1, as follows:

1) obtaining a planned power supply set G (G) from high to low according to the step 1, wherein the planned power supply set G (G) is matched with the system load demand characteristic from high to low₁,G₂…G_nIn which G is_iTo sequence the programmed power supply of the ith bit, i is 1, 2 … … n;

2) sequentially selecting a planned power supply G from the set G_iAdding the power into a local power grid current situation power supply set J, and performing the next calculation;

3) according to the calculated horizontal annual load demand, the power supply set J + G is subjected to_iAnd carrying out electric power electric quantity balance calculation. If the requirement of the calculation level year electric power quantity is met, the next calculation is carried out; if not, the power supply G is switched on_iJoin set J, go back to 2);

4) judging the water-abandoning electric quantity A according to the electric power electric quantity balance calculation result₁With the addition of the electric quantity A₂If A is the magnitude relation between them₁<＝A₂Then power supply G is applied_iAdding a lower envelope power supply planning scheme set J + G_{Lower part}(t), the calculation is finished; if A₁>A₂Not to change G_iPut into set J and go back to 2);

in the step 3, an upper envelope optimization model of a green power supply development route is established; the model adopts the maximization of the generated energy of a green power supply as an optimization target, and a power supply planning scheme meets the load requirement under the calculation level year as a constraint condition; FIG. 2 is a flow chart of a calculation for establishing an upper envelope optimization model for a green power supply development path according to the present invention;

the calculation steps are now described in detail with reference to fig. 2, as follows:

1) obtaining a planned power supply set G (G) from high to low according to the step 1, wherein the planned power supply set G (G) is matched with the system load demand characteristic from high to low₁,G₂…G_nIn which G is_jTo sequence the j-th bit, i is 1, 2 … … n;

2) sequentially selecting a planned power supply G from the set G_jAdding the power into a local power grid current situation power supply set J, and performing the next calculation;

3) judgment G_jWhether it is a green power supply: if G is_jIf it is a green power supply, the power supply G is connected_jAdding the power source into a regional power grid current situation power source set J, and jumping to the step 5); if G is_jAnd if not, the green power supply, and the next calculation is carried out. Wherein, the green power supply refers to wind power, photovoltaic and hydropower;

4) if other green power supplies exist in the planning power supply set G, G is not used_jPut into set J, go back to step 3); if the planning power supply set G has no other green power supplies, sequentially selecting the non-green power supplies G in the front of the sequence from the set G_jAdding the power into a local power grid current situation power supply set J, and performing the next calculation;

5) according to the calculated horizontal annual load demand, the power supply set J + G is subjected to_jAnd carrying out electric power electric quantity balance calculation. If the requirement of the calculation level year electric power quantity is met, the next calculation is carried out; if not, the power supply G is switched on_jJoin set J, go back to 3);

6) judging the water-abandoning electric quantity A according to the electric power electric quantity balance calculation result₁Setting limit A of waste water electric quantity₃If A is the magnitude relation between them₁<＝A₃Then power supply G is applied_jAdding an upper envelope power supply planning scheme set J + G_{On the upper part}(t), the calculation is finished; if A₁>A₃Not to change G_jPut into set J and go back to 2);

in the step 4, a power supply planning scheme is evaluated according to the upper and lower envelope optimization models of the green power supply development route, and the steps are as follows:

1) respectively obtaining a power supply planning scheme set of a lower envelope line and a power supply planning scheme set of an upper envelope line meeting different calculation horizontal year load requirements according to the step 2 and the step 3, namely:

J+G_{lower part}(t)＝{J+G_{Lower part}(1),J+G_{Lower part}(2)…J+G_{Lower part}(n)}

J+G_{On the upper part}(t)＝{J+G_{On the upper part}(1),J+G_{On the upper part}(2)…J+G_{On the upper part}(n)} (4)

In formula (4):

J+G_{lower part}(t) a set of social benefit optimal power supply planning schemes meeting 1 st to nth calculated horizontal annual load requirements;

J+G_{on the upper part}(t) a green power supply development planning scheme set meeting the 1 st to nth calculation horizontal year load requirements;

2) and defining a power supply planning scheme set to be evaluated which meets the 1 st to nth calculation horizontal year load requirements as J + D (t).

3) Calculate J + G_{Lower part}(t)、J+G_{On the upper part}(t), the green power supply ratio R (t) of J + D (t), the water-discarding electric quantity A (t) and other indexes are as follows:

A(t)＝P_{hair-like device}(t)-P_{By using}(t) (6)

In formula (5): h (t) calculating the water installed capacity for the horizontal year for the tth;

w (t) calculating the installed wind power capacity of the horizontal year for the tth;

(t) calculating the photovoltaic installed capacity of the horizontal year for the tth;

g (t) calculating all installed capacities of power supplies of the horizontal year for the tth;

P_{hair-like device}(t) calculating all power generation quantities of the horizontal year for the tth;

P_{by using}(t) calculating the load electricity consumption of the horizontal year for the tth;

4) according to the previous step, a green power supply ratio index curve R of an upper envelope power supply planning scheme and a lower envelope power supply planning scheme under each calculation level year is obtained_{On the upper part}(t)、R_{Lower part}(t), electric power index curve A of waste water_{On the upper part}(t)、A_{Lower part}(t) are formed by curves R_{On the upper part}(t)、R_{Lower part}(t) is the section S of the upper and lower envelope lines₁By curve A_{On the upper part}(t)、A_{Lower part}(t) is the section S of the upper and lower envelope lines₂Wherein: t is 1, 2 … … n. FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of power supply planning scheme evaluation using an upper and lower envelope optimization model;

5) if the green power supply ratio index R of the power supply planning scheme J + D (t) to be evaluated_{To be treated}(t) electric power index A of waste water_{To be treated}(t) are located at the upper and lower envelope forming sections S₁、S₂If so, judging that the power supply planning scheme J + D (t) to be evaluated in the tth calculation horizontal year meets the targets of better development of the green power supply and better social benefit, and entering the next calculation; otherwise, judging that the power supply planning scheme J + D (t) to be evaluated of the tth calculation horizontal year cannot meet the requirements of simultaneously meeting the development of a green power supply and the social benefit optimization target;

6) judging whether the power supply planning scheme J + D (t) to be evaluated deviates from J + G_{Lower part}(t)、J+G_{On the upper part}(t) degree of; calculation of R_{To be treated}(t) relative to R_{On the upper part}(t)、R_{Lower part}Distance L in (t)_{On the upper part}、L_{Lower part}Namely:

L_{on the upper part}＝|R_{On the upper part}(t)-R_{To be treated}(t)| (7)

L_{Lower part}＝|R_{Lower part}(t)-R_{To be treated}(t)| (8)

If L is_{On the upper part}<＝L_{Lower part}Judging that the power supply planning scheme J + D (t) to be evaluated is biased to a green power supply development route; if L is_{On the upper part}>L_{Lower part}And judging that the power supply planning scheme J + D (t) to be evaluated is biased to the social benefit optimization development route.

The green power supply development route optimization and evaluation method based on the envelope model can solve the problem that a power supply planning scheme deviates from social benefits and a green power supply development target under incomplete information and decentralized decision, overcomes the defects that the original power supply planning and evaluation method is difficult to adapt to external boundary condition change, cannot evaluate the deviation degree of the power supply development route, is complex in model calculation and the like, is applied to the power supply planning and evaluation field of a power system, can fully reflect energy strategic targets, social benefits and interest requirements of all parties, and is beneficial to guiding and evaluating the power supply planning construction of a near-term and far-term area.

Drawings

FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a lower envelope optimization model for establishing a green power supply development route;

FIG. 2 is a schematic flow chart of an upper envelope optimization model for establishing a green power supply development route;

FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of power supply planning scheme evaluation using an upper and lower envelope optimization model;

fig. 4A and 4B are schematic diagrams illustrating power supply planning scheme evaluation by using an upper and lower envelope optimization model in a certain province;

fig. 5 is a schematic flow chart of a green power supply development route optimization and evaluation method based on an envelope model.

Detailed Description

Certain embodiments of the present invention will now be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings, which form a part hereof, and which together with the embodiments of the invention serve to explain the principles of the invention.

The invention discloses a green power supply development route optimization and evaluation method based on an envelope model, which is characterized by comprising the following steps of:

step 1: defining and calculating power supply planning characteristic matching indexes, and sequencing a planning power supply set according to the indexes;

step 2: establishing a lower envelope optimization model of a green power supply development route;

and step 3: establishing an upper envelope optimization model of a green power supply development route;

and 4, step 4: and evaluating the power supply planning scheme according to the upper envelope line optimization model and the lower envelope line optimization model of the green power supply development route.

In the step 1, a power supply planning characteristic matching index is calculated, and a planning power supply set is sorted according to the index, and the steps are as follows:

1) carrying out electric power and electric quantity balance calculation on the current horizontal year power supply installation and the nth horizontal year load calculation requirement in a certain regional electric power system, and calculating to obtain the annual electric quantity shortage Q of the regional electric power system in the horizontal year_{Year of year}And shortage of electricity in dry period Q_{Withered food}(ii) a Defining and calculating a regional power system dead-time shortage electric quantity ratio index Q, namely

2) Collecting annual energy production P of certain (class) planning power supply_{Year of year}Power generation amount P in peaceful period_{Withered food}. Defining and calculating the power generation amount ratio index P in the power supply dead period, namely:

3) defining and calculating a power supply planning characteristic matching index M for a certain (class of) planned power supply, i.e.

M＝|P-Q| (3)

Calculating power planning characteristic matching index M of j (class) planning power supplies of the regional power system according to formula (3)₁、M₂……M_j. Particularly, the power supply unit taking fossil fuel as primary energy has strong regulating capacity, and the power supply planning characteristic matching index M of the power supply unit can be regarded as 0;

4) to M₁、M₂……M_jThe planning power supplies with the power supply planning characteristic matching indexes M ranked in the front are considered to be higher in matching degree with the system load demand characteristics in the calculation level year;

in the embodiment, for a certain power saving system, the 5 th year, the 10 th year and the 15 th year are taken as calculation horizontal years on the basis of the current year, the installed capacity of the power saving system is 10367 kW, and 13 power sources (classes) are planned. In the embodiment, WHPS electric power and electric quantity balance calculation software is adopted, and the electric quantity shortage of the current year is obtained by calculating the load prediction result and the current situation of the 15 th year on the basis of the current year and the current year of the installed power supply.

According to the method in the step 1, the shortage electric quantity ratio index Q in the power system dry period, the power generation quantity ratio index P in the power supply dry period and the power supply planning characteristic matching index M are calculated as follows:

in the step 2, a lower envelope optimization model of a green power supply development route is established, and the steps are as follows:

fig. 1 is a flowchart of the calculation for establishing the lower envelope optimization model of the green power supply development route according to the present invention. The calculation steps are now described in detail with reference to fig. 1, as follows:

1) obtaining a planned power supply set G (G) from high to low according to the step 1, wherein the planned power supply set G (G) is matched with the system load demand characteristic from high to low₁,G₂…G_nIn which G is_iTo sequence the programmed power supply of the ith bit, i is 1, 2 … … n;

2) sequentially selecting a planned power supply G from the set G_iAdding the power into a local power grid current situation power supply set J, and performing the next calculation;

3) according to the calculated horizontal annual load demand, the power supply set J + G is subjected to_iAnd carrying out electric power electric quantity balance calculation. If the requirement of the calculation level year electric power quantity is met, the next calculation is carried out; if not, the power supply G is switched on_iJoin set J, go back to 2);

4) judging the water-abandoning electric quantity A according to the electric power electric quantity balance calculation result₁With the addition of the electric quantity A₂If A is the magnitude relation between them₁<＝A₂Then power supply G is applied_iAdding a lower envelope power supply planning scheme set J + G_{Lower part}(t), the calculation is finished; if A₁>A₂Not to change G_iPut into set J and go back to 2);

in combination with the embodiment, the system requirement matching degree sorting results of 8 planned power supplies are obtained according to step 1. According to the method in the step 2, the lower envelope power supply planning scheme which meets the load forecasting requirements of the 5 th year, the 10 th year and the 15 th year on the basis of the current year is calculated as follows:

lower envelope power supply planning scheme	Current year	Year +5 of the present year	Year +10 of the present year	Present year +15 years
					General loader (Wan kW)	10367	10607	12227	13875
Water and electricity installation (WankW)	7563	7563	7983	8393
					Wind power installation (WankW)	930	930	1626	2256
Photovoltaic installation (Wan kW)	341	341	465	600
					Thermal power installation machine (WankW)	1533	1773	2153	2626

Planning power supply installation machine added in scheme	Year +5 of the present year	Year +10 of the present year	Present year +15 years
				New general installation (WankW)	240	1620	1648
Newly added planning water and electricity (WankW)		420	410
				Planning a faucet water and electricity 1		420
Planning faucet hydropower 2			300
				Planning of large and medium hydropower 9			110
Newly-increased planning wind power (WankW)	0	696	630
				Photovoltaic program (WankW)	0	124	135
New planning thermal power (WankW)	240	380	473

In the step 3, an upper envelope optimization model of a green power supply development route is established. The model adopts the maximization of the generated energy of a green power supply as an optimization target, and a power supply planning scheme meets the load requirement under the calculation level year as a constraint condition;

fig. 2 is a flowchart of the calculation for establishing an upper envelope optimization model of a green power supply development route according to the present invention, and the calculation steps will now be described in detail with reference to fig. 2, as follows:

1) obtaining a planned power supply set G (G) from high to low according to the step 1, wherein the planned power supply set G (G) is matched with the system load demand characteristic from high to low₁,G₂…G_nIn which G is_jTo sequence the j-th bit, i is 1, 2 … … n;

2) sequentially selecting a planned power supply G from the set G_jAdding the power into a local power grid current situation power supply set J, and performing the next calculation;

3) judgment G_jWhether it is a green power supply: if G is_jIf it is a green power supply, the power supply G is connected_jAdding the power source into a regional power grid current situation power source set J, and jumping to the step 5); if G is_jAnd if not, the green power supply, and the next calculation is carried out. Wherein, the green power supply refers to wind power, photovoltaic and hydropower;

4) if other green power supplies exist in the planning power supply set G, G is not used_jPut into set J, go back to step 3); if the planning power supply set G has no other green power supplies, sequentially selecting the non-green power supplies G in the front of the sequence from the set G_jAdding the power into a local power grid current situation power supply set J, and performing the next calculation;

5) according to the calculated horizontal annual load demand, the power supply set J + G is subjected to_jAnd carrying out electric power electric quantity balance calculation. If the requirement of the calculation level year electric power quantity is met, the next calculation is carried out; if not, the power supply G is switched on_jJoin set J, go back to 3);

6) judging the water-abandoning electric quantity A according to the electric power electric quantity balance calculation result₁Setting limit A of waste water electric quantity₃If A is the magnitude relation between them₁<＝A₃Then power supply G is applied_jAdding an upper envelope power supply planning scheme set J + G_{On the upper part}(t), the calculation is finished; if A₁>A₃Not to change G_jPut into set J and go back to 2);

in combination with the embodiment, the system requirement matching degree sorting results of 8 planned power supplies are obtained according to step 1. According to the method of step 3, the water discard electricity amount is set to a limit of 50 hundred million kWh. An upper envelope power supply planning scheme calculated to meet the load forecasting requirements of the horizontal year calculated in the 5 th, 10 th and 15 th years on the basis of the current year is as follows:

upper envelope power supply planning scheme	Current year	Year +5 of the present year	Year +10 of the present year	Present year +15 years
					General loader (Wan kW)	10367	10773	12505	13356
Water and electricity installation (WankW)	7563	7563	8881	9102
					Wind power installation (WankW)	930	1216	1626	2256
Photovoltaic installation (Wan kW)	341	341	465	465
					Thermal power installation machine (WankW)	1533	1653	1533	1533

Planning power supply installation machine added in scheme	Year +5 of the present year	Year +10 of the present year	Present year +15 years
				New general installation (WankW)	406	1732	851
Newly added planning water and electricity (WankW)		1318	221
				Planning a faucet water and electricity 1		420
Planning faucet hydropower 2		300
				Planning of large and medium hydropower 3		180
Planning of large and medium hydropower plants 4		19.5
				Planning of large and medium hydropower 5		60
Planning of large and medium hydropower plants 6		210
				Planning of large and medium hydropower 7		18
Planning of large and medium hydropower 8		110
				Planning of large and medium hydropower 9			110
Planning of large and medium hydropower plants 10			111
				Newly-increased planning wind power (WankW)	286	410	630
Photovoltaic program (WankW)	0	124	0
				New planning thermal power (WankW)	120	-120	0

In the step 4, a power supply planning scheme is evaluated according to the upper and lower envelope optimization models of the green power supply development route, and the steps are as follows:

1) respectively obtaining a power supply planning scheme set of a lower envelope line and a power supply planning scheme set of an upper envelope line meeting different calculation horizontal year load requirements according to the step 2 and the step 3, namely:

J+G_{lower part}(t)＝{J+G_{Lower part}(1),J+G_{Lower part}(2)…J+G_{Lower part}(n)}

J+G_{On the upper part}(t)＝{J+G_{On the upper part}(1),J+G_{On the upper part}(2)…J+G_{On the upper part}(n)} (4)

In formula (4):

J+G_{lower part}(t) a set of social benefit optimal power supply planning schemes meeting 1 st to nth calculated horizontal annual load requirements;

J+G_{on the upper part}(t) a green power supply development planning scheme set meeting the 1 st to nth calculation horizontal year load requirements;

2) and defining a power supply planning scheme set to be evaluated which meets the 1 st to nth calculation horizontal year load requirements as J + D (t).

3) Calculate J + G_{Lower part}(t)、J+G_{On the upper part}(t), the green power supply ratio R (t) of J + D (t), the water-discarding electric quantity A (t) and other indexes are as follows:

A(t)＝P_{hair-like device}(t)-P_{By using}(t) (6)

In formula (5): h (t) calculating the water installed capacity for the horizontal year for the tth;

w (t) calculating the installed wind power capacity of the horizontal year for the tth;

(t) calculating the photovoltaic installed capacity of the horizontal year for the tth;

g (t) calculating all installed capacities of power supplies of the horizontal year for the tth;

P_{hair-like device}(t) calculating all power generation quantities of the horizontal year for the tth;

P_{by using}(t) calculating the load electricity consumption of the horizontal year for the tth;

4) according to the previous step, the green power supply ratio finger of the upper envelope line power supply planning scheme and the lower envelope line power supply planning scheme under each calculation level year is obtainedStandard curve R_{On the upper part}(t)、R_{Lower part}(t), electric power index curve A of waste water_{On the upper part}(t)、A_{Lower part}(t) are formed by curves R_{On the upper part}(t)、R_{Lower part}(t) is the section S of the upper and lower envelope lines₁By curve A_{On the upper part}(t)、A_{Lower part}(t) is the section S of the upper and lower envelope lines₂Wherein: t is 1, 2 … … n. FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of power supply planning scheme evaluation using an upper and lower envelope optimization model;

5) if the green power supply ratio index R of the power supply planning scheme J + D (t) to be evaluated_{To be treated}(t) electric power index A of waste water_{To be treated}(t) are located at the upper and lower envelope forming sections S₁、S₂If so, judging that the power supply planning scheme J + D (t) to be evaluated in the tth calculation horizontal year meets the targets of better development of the green power supply and better social benefit, and entering the next calculation; otherwise, judging that the power supply planning scheme J + D (t) to be evaluated of the tth calculation horizontal year cannot meet the requirements of simultaneously meeting the development of a green power supply and the social benefit optimization target;

6) judging whether the power supply planning scheme J + D (t) to be evaluated deviates from J + G_{Lower part}(t)、J+G_{On the upper part}The degree of (t). Calculation of R_{To be treated}(t) relative to R_{On the upper part}(t)、R_{Lower part}Distance L in (t)_{On the upper part}、L_{Lower part}Namely:

L_{on the upper part}＝|R_{On the upper part}(t)-R_{To be treated}(t)| (7)

L_{Lower part}＝|R_{Lower part}(t)-R_{To be treated}(t)| (8)

If L is_{On the upper part}<＝L_{Lower part}Judging that the power supply planning scheme J + D (t) to be evaluated is biased to a green power supply development route; if L is_{On the upper part}>L_{Lower part}And judging that the power supply planning scheme J + D (t) to be evaluated is biased to the social benefit optimization development route.

In combination with the embodiment, according to the method in step 4, the green power ratio index r (t) and the water-saving power quantity index a (t) of the upper envelope power planning scheme and the lower envelope power planning scheme corresponding to the three calculation horizontal years in the province and a certain power planning scheme to be evaluated are calculated as follows:

electric quantity index of waste water	Year +5 of the present year	Year +10 of the present year	Present year +15 years
				J + G lower (t)	52	10	11
J + G upper (t)	54	39	49
				J+D(t)	59	25	22
Green power supply ratio index	Year +5 of the present year	Year +10 of the present year	Present year +15 years
				J + G lower (t)	83％	82％	81％
J + G upper (t)	85％	88％	89％
				J+D(t)	86％	86％	84％

The 1 st calculation horizontal year (current year +5 years) green power supply ratio index R (t) and water abandon electric quantity index A (t) of the power supply planning scheme to be evaluated are not positioned on the section S₁、S₂Judging that the 1 st calculation level year (current year +5 years) of the power supply planning scheme to be evaluated cannot meet the requirements of simultaneously meeting the development and social benefit optimization targets of a green power supply; the green power supply proportion index R (t) and the water abandon electric quantity index A (t) of 2 nd and 3 rd calculation horizontal years (current year +10 years, current year +15 years) of the power supply planning scheme to be evaluated are not positioned on the section S₁、S₂In the method, the 2 nd and 3 rd calculation horizontal years (the current year +10 years, the current year +15 years) of the power supply planning scheme to be evaluated are judged to simultaneously meet the targets of better development of green power supplies and better social benefits.

And 4, calculating the degree of the deviation of the power supply planning scheme to be evaluated from the upper envelope power supply planning scheme and the lower envelope power supply planning scheme according to the method in the step 4. Fig. 4A and 4B are schematic diagrams illustrating power supply planning scheme evaluation by using an upper and lower envelope optimization model in a certain province; the calculation is as follows:

the 2 nd calculation horizontal year (present year +10 years):

L_{on the upper part}＝|88％-86％|＝2％；

L_{Lower part}＝|82％-86％|＝4％；

L_{On the upper part}<L_{Lower part}And judging that the power supply planning scheme to be evaluated is biased to optimize the development route of the green power supply.

The 3 rd calculation horizontal year (the present year +15 years)

L_{On the upper part}＝|89％-84％|＝5％；

L_{Lower part}＝|81％-84％|＝3％；

L_{On the upper part}>L_{Lower part}And judging that the power supply planning scheme to be evaluated is biased to the social benefit optimization development route.

The above description is only an example of the present invention and should not be taken as limiting the invention, and any modifications, equivalents and improvements made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the scope of the present invention.

Claims (1)

1. A green power supply development route optimization and evaluation method based on an envelope model is characterized by comprising the following steps:

step 1: defining and calculating power supply planning characteristic matching indexes, and sequencing a planning power supply set according to the indexes;

step 2: establishing a lower envelope optimization model of a green power supply development route;

and step 3: establishing an upper envelope optimization model of a green power supply development route;

and 4, step 4: evaluating a power supply planning scheme according to an upper envelope line optimization model and a lower envelope line optimization model of a green power supply development route;

wherein:

in the step 1, a power supply planning characteristic matching index is calculated, and a planning power supply set is sorted according to the index, and the steps are as follows:

1) carrying out electric power and electric quantity balance calculation on the current horizontal year power supply installation and the nth horizontal year load calculation requirement in a certain regional electric power system, and calculating to obtain the annual electric quantity shortage Q of the regional electric power system in the horizontal year_{Year of year}And shortage of electricity in dry period Q_{Withered food}(ii) a Defining and calculating a regional power system dead-time shortage electric quantity ratio index Q, namely

2) Collecting annual energy production P of certain (class) planning power supply_{Year of year}Power generation amount P in peaceful period_{Withered food}(ii) a Defining and calculating the power generation amount ratio index P in the power supply dead period, namely:

3) defining and calculating a power supply planning characteristic matching index M for a certain (class of) planned power supply, i.e.

M＝|P-Q| (3)

Calculating power planning characteristic matching index M of j (class) planning power supplies of the regional power system according to formula (3)₁、M₂……M_j(ii) a The power supply unit taking fossil fuel as primary energy has strong regulating capacity, and the power supply planning characteristic matching index M can be regarded as 0;

4) to M₁、M₂……M_jThe planning power supplies with the power supply planning characteristic matching indexes M ranked in the front are considered to be higher in matching degree with the system load demand characteristics in the calculation level year;

in the step 2, a lower envelope optimization model of a green power supply development route is established; the model adopts the minimization of the water abandon power as an optimization target, and a power supply planning scheme meets the load requirement under the calculation level year as a constraint condition; the method comprises the following steps of establishing a calculation flow of a lower envelope optimization model of a green power supply development route:

1) obtaining a planned power supply set G (G) from high to low according to the step 1, wherein the planned power supply set G (G) is matched with the system load demand characteristic from high to low₁,G₂…G_nIn which G is_iTo sequence the programmed power supply of the ith bit, i is 1, 2 … … n;

2) sequentially selecting a planned power supply G from the set G_iAdding the power into a local power grid current situation power supply set J, and performing the next calculation;

3) according to the calculated horizontal annual load demand, the power supply set J + G is subjected to_iCarrying out electric power and electric quantity balance calculation; if the requirement of the calculation level year electric power quantity is met, the next calculation is carried out; if not, the power supply G is switched on_iJoin set J, go back to 2);

4) judging the water-abandoning electric quantity A according to the electric power electric quantity balance calculation result₁With the addition of the electric quantity A₂If A is the magnitude relation between them₁<＝A₂Then power supply G is applied_iAdding a lower envelope power supply planning scheme set J + G_{Lower part}(t), the calculation is finished; if A₁>A₂Not to change G_iPut into set J and go back to 2);

in the step 3, an upper envelope optimization model of a green power supply development route is established; the model adopts the maximization of the generated energy of a green power supply as an optimization target, and a power supply planning scheme meets the load requirement under the calculation level year as a constraint condition; the method comprises the following steps of establishing a calculation flow of an upper envelope optimization model of a green power supply development route:

1) obtaining a planned power supply set G (G) from high to low according to the step 1, wherein the planned power supply set G (G) is matched with the system load demand characteristic from high to low₁,G₂…G_nIn which G is_jTo sequence the j-th bit, i is 1, 2 … … n;

2) sequentially selecting a planned power supply G from the set G_jAdding the power into a local power grid current situation power supply set J, and performing the next calculation;

3) judgment G_jWhether it is a green power supply: if G is_jIf it is a green power supply, the power supply G is connected_jAdding the power source into a regional power grid current situation power source set J, and jumping to the step 5); if G is_jIf not, entering the next calculation; wherein, the green power supply refers to wind power, photovoltaic and hydropower;

4) if other green power supplies exist in the planning power supply set G, G is not used_jPut into set J, go back to step 3); if the planning power supply set G has no other green power supplies, sequentially selecting the non-green power supplies G in the front of the sequence from the set G_jAdding the power into a local power grid current situation power supply set J, and performing the next calculation;

5) according to the calculated horizontal annual load demand, the power supply set J + G is subjected to_jCarrying out electric power and electric quantity balance calculation; if the requirement of the calculation level year electric power quantity is met, the next calculation is carried out; if not, the power supply G is switched on_jJoin set J, go back to 3);

6) judging the water-abandoning electric quantity A according to the electric power electric quantity balance calculation result₁Setting limit A of waste water electric quantity₃If A is the magnitude relation between them₁<＝A₃Then power supply G is applied_jAdding an upper envelope power supply planning scheme set J + G_{On the upper part}(t), the calculation is finished; if A₁>A₃Not to change G_jPut into set J and go back to 2);

in the step 4, a power supply planning scheme is evaluated according to the upper and lower envelope optimization models of the green power supply development route, and the steps are as follows:

1) respectively obtaining a power supply planning scheme set of a lower envelope line and a power supply planning scheme set of an upper envelope line meeting different calculation horizontal year load requirements according to the step 2 and the step 3, namely:

J+G_{lower part}(t)＝{J+G_{Lower part}(1),J+G_{Lower part}(2)…J+G_{Lower part}(n)}

J+G_{On the upper part}(t)＝{J+G_{On the upper part}(1),J+G_{On the upper part}(2)…J+G_{On the upper part}(n)} (4)

In formula (4):

J+G_{lower part}(t) a set of social benefit optimal power supply planning schemes meeting 1 st to nth calculated horizontal annual load requirements;

J+G_{on the upper part}(t) a green power supply development planning scheme set meeting the 1 st to nth calculation horizontal year load requirements;

2) defining a set of power supply planning schemes to be evaluated which meet the 1 st to nth calculation horizontal year load requirements as J + D (t);

3) calculate J + G_{Lower part}(t)、J+G_{On the upper part}(t), the green power supply ratio R (t) of J + D (t), the water-discarding electric quantity A (t) and other indexes are as follows:

A(t)＝P_{hair-like device}(t)-P_{By using}(t) (6)

In formula (5): h (t) calculating the water installed capacity for the horizontal year for the tth;

w (t) calculating the installed wind power capacity of the horizontal year for the tth;

(t) calculating the photovoltaic installed capacity of the horizontal year for the tth;

g (t) calculating all installed capacities of power supplies of the horizontal year for the tth;

P_{hair-like device}(t) calculating all power generation quantities of the horizontal year for the tth;

P_{by using}(t) calculating the load electricity consumption of the horizontal year for the tth;

4) according to the previous step, a green power supply ratio index curve R of an upper envelope power supply planning scheme and a lower envelope power supply planning scheme under each calculation level year is obtained_{On the upper part}(t)、R_{Lower part}(t), electric power index curve A of waste water_{On the upper part}(t)、A_{Lower part}(t) are formed by curves R_{On the upper part}(t)、R_{Lower part}(t) is the section S of the upper and lower envelope lines₁By curve A_{On the upper part}(t)、A_{Lower part}(t) is the section S of the upper and lower envelope lines₂Wherein: t is 1, 2 … … n;

the method for evaluating the power supply planning scheme by adopting the upper envelope optimization model and the lower envelope optimization model comprises the following steps:

5) if the green power supply ratio index R of the power supply planning scheme J + D (t) to be evaluated_{To be treated}(t) electric power index A of waste water_{To be treated}(t) are located at the upper and lower envelope forming sections S₁、S₂If so, judging that the power supply planning scheme J + D (t) to be evaluated in the tth calculation horizontal year meets the targets of better development of the green power supply and better social benefit, and entering the next calculation; otherwise, judging that the power supply planning scheme J + D (t) to be evaluated of the tth calculation horizontal year cannot meet the requirements of simultaneously meeting the development of a green power supply and the social benefit optimization target;

6) judging whether the power supply planning scheme J + D (t) to be evaluated deviates from J + G_{Lower part}(t)、J+G_{On the upper part}(t) degree of; calculation of R_{To be treated}(t) relative to R_{On the upper part}(t)、R_{Lower part}Distance L in (t)_{On the upper part}、L_{Lower part}Namely:

L_{on the upper part}＝|R_{On the upper part}(t)-R_{To be treated}(t)| (7)

L_{Lower part}＝|R_{Lower part}(t)-R_{To be treated}(t)| (8)

If L is_{On the upper part}<＝L_{Lower part}Judging that the power supply planning scheme J + D (t) to be evaluated is biased to a green power supply development route; if L is_{On the upper part}>L_{Lower part}And judging that the power supply planning scheme J + D (t) to be evaluated is biased to the social benefit optimization development route.

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