CN111291448B - Method for distributing task reliability indexes of military aircraft - Google Patents
Method for distributing task reliability indexes of military aircraft Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention belongs to the field of aviation quality and reliability, and particularly relates to a military aircraft mission reliability index distribution method. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring parameters for measuring the task reliability of the military aircraft under each task section, namely, the task reliability; determining task failure probability of each task section according to the task reliability; according to the task failure probability of each task section, determining the allowable occurrence probability that a single function affects the corresponding task failure every hour in each task; and according to the allowable occurrence probability that the single function affects the failure of the corresponding task every hour in each task under each task section, the failure probability is comprehensively processed to obtain the allowable occurrence probability of the failure of the single function of the aircraft.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the field of aviation quality and reliability, and particularly relates to a military aircraft mission reliability index distribution method.
Background
Mission reliability is the ability of a product to perform a specified function within a specified mission profile. The important focus is on the ability of the product to complete tasks, allowing non-critical faults to occur, and the design focus is to optimize the system functional logic design, architecture design and redundancy configuration by combing the fault logic relationships of the product. Mission reliability is a direct reflection of the ability of the aircraft equipment to complete mission tasks and an important guarantee.
In the current aviation equipment development process, definite quantitative requirements are put forward on task reliability work of the whole machine and the system. The task reliability model is a core and a foundation for realizing the task reliability design of the aviation equipment. The task reliability modeling technology based on the main dependence of the current model is a modeling technology based on a reliability block diagram. The method mainly comprises the steps of analyzing the influence of independent failure of each component on the reliability of the system according to the functional relation of the system, establishing a task reliability model (such as a serial model, a parallel model, a series-parallel model, a voting model and the like), and calculating the task reliability of the system through the reliability of the components by taking the predicted value of the components as input. However, the modeling method has 3 important assumption preconditions:
1) The logical relationship of the system to the unit faults is determined.
2) The system only considers two states of normal and fault.
3) Faults of system constituent units are mutually independent, and the fault rate is constant.
Therefore, the method cannot describe the complex behavior characteristics and fault characteristics of the actual system, has limited functions in guiding the improvement of the system design, and is not easy to be accepted by the designer.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the problems, the invention provides a task reliability index distribution method for a military aircraft, which is used for carrying out task failure analysis on each task section of the military aircraft, providing designable, realizable and verifiable task reliability requirements for aircraft systems and equipment in early model development and establishing quantitative targets for subsequent task reliability design analysis and verification. The method can be directly applied to the decomposition and transmission of the reliability indexes of the tasks of various domestic aviation equipment, and the use requirements of the user on the aviation equipment are converted into the requirements of designability and restraint of aircrafts, systems and airborne equipment, and are used as targets for subsequent evaluation and verification.
The invention provides a method for distributing task reliability indexes of a military aircraft, which comprises the following steps:
acquiring parameters for measuring the task reliability of the military aircraft under each task section, namely, the task reliability;
determining task failure probability of each task section according to the task reliability;
according to the task failure probability of each task section, determining the allowable occurrence probability that a single function affects the corresponding task failure every hour in each task;
and according to the allowable occurrence probability that the single function affects the failure of the corresponding task every hour in each task under each task section, the failure probability is comprehensively processed to obtain the allowable occurrence probability of the failure of the single function of the aircraft.
Further, obtaining parameters that measure mission reliability of a military aircraft includes:
acquiring preset task reliability;
or calculating the mission reliability of the military aircraft according to the preset average severe fault interval time and the mission time.
Further, before obtaining the parameters for measuring the mission reliability of the military aircraft under each mission profile, the method further comprises:
and combing the typical mission profile of the military aircraft and the working phase time of the mission profile to obtain the fused mission profiles and the mission time of the mission profiles.
Further, carding a typical mission profile of a military aircraft and time of each working stage thereof, including:
classifying the mission profile of the military aircraft according to the typical mission profile of the military aircraft and the combat type;
the sections with the task time more than twice of the average task time of other sections are independently reserved;
merging task sections which are not independently reserved based on the flight phase; the combined profile must contain all the flight phases involved in the combined mission profile.
Further, carding the typical mission profile of the military aircraft and the working phase time thereof, and further comprising:
for the task sections with the completely same flight phases, taking the maximum value of the time of each flight phase as the flight phase time of the combined section;
the following is done for the sections with differences in flight phase:
when the time corresponding to the same flight phase in the combined section is completely contained, namely, the time of each flight phase of a certain task section is not less than the time of the flight phase corresponding to other sections, and the time of the differential flight phase and the time of the same flight phase are both maximum;
when the times corresponding to the same flight phases in the combined sections cannot be completely contained, the time of the differential flight phase is maximized, and the time of the same flight phase is weighted average.
Further, according to the allowable occurrence probability that a single function affects failure of a corresponding task every hour in each task under each task section, the comprehensive processing of the failure probability obtains the allowable occurrence probability of failure of the single function of the aircraft, including:
and carrying out weighted average on the allowable occurrence probability of the failure of the corresponding task of the single function per hour in each task under each task section according to the using frequency of each section to obtain the allowable occurrence probability of the failure of the single function of the airplane.
Further, according to the allowable occurrence probability that a single function affects failure of a corresponding task every hour in each task under each task section, the comprehensive processing of the failure probability obtains the allowable occurrence probability of failure of the single function of the aircraft, including:
the smallest probability of the allowed occurrence probabilities of the failure of the single function affecting the corresponding task in each hour is selected as the occurrence probability of the failure of the single function of the airplane.
Further, the task success probability is the task reliability.
The invention has the advantages that: the method for distributing the reliability indexes based on the functional failure task can carry out demand traction on aviation weapon equipment and system design, provides clear task reliability requirements on functions affecting the completion of the aviation equipment task, and provides input for continuous control of different-level products, optimization of system architecture and quantitative index evaluation in the subsequent development process, and the task reliability level is improved.
Detailed Description
With the rapid progress of the aviation industry, the complexity of the system itself and the cross-linking relationship between systems is greatly improved, the above assumption is often not satisfied, and the following complex features are often shown in the practical system:
1) Dynamically reconfigurable features
In avionics systems employing comprehensive modular architecture, due to the existence of dynamic reconfigurable mechanisms, the relationship between the failure of system functions and the failure of unit hardware is no longer deterministic, and in the case of a unit failure, whether the system functions fail is mainly related to factors such as software configuration, real-time scheduling mechanism and resource quantity of the system.
2) Multi-state features
In most electromechanical systems, each cell typically undergoes a number of intermediate states from normal to complete failure, such as partial wear, over wear, etc. for the wear failure mode of the part; for fatigue failure modes, multiple states such as crack initiation, crack propagation, fracture and the like are experienced; for performance degradation, various states such as normal performance, performance deficiency, and performance out-of-tolerance are experienced. In the evolution of multiple components from a normal state to a fault state, the coupling of intermediate states can lead to failure of system functions even though the components are not fully disabled. For such systems, it is obviously not sufficient to consider only the binary state of the system.
3) Failure related features
In a load sharing system or a system with a tight energy transfer relationship, the correlation between unit failure modes is not negligible, and failure of a certain unit of the system is likely to result in an increase or decrease in the load of the remaining relevant unit, thereby resulting in a change in its failure rate. For example, failure of one motor in a dual redundancy motor system can result in an increase in the load of the remaining one motor, thereby resulting in an increase in failure rate thereof; in the serial multi-link structure, the strength decay of one section of the pull rod accelerates the self-breaking process, but plays a role in delaying the failure of the rest of the pull rods.
Therefore, aiming at urgent demands of aviation equipment development on task reliability design technology, a task reliability design analysis and evaluation method based on a functional model is provided, and in order to strengthen the demand traction effect of task reliability on system and airborne equipment architecture design, all functional failures causing task failure must be identified in the early stage of development, quantitative probability requirements are distributed, and top-layer requirements are decomposed into failure modes of units layer by layer, so that quantitative index evaluation and system architecture optimization are realized.
The invention relates to a method for distributing task reliability indexes of a military aircraft, which mainly comprises the following steps:
step one, determining a mission reliability index of a military aircraft only considers faults affecting the completion of the mission (i.e., serious faults) during the execution of the mission, and common mission reliability contract requirements of the military aircraft are generally expressed as mean time between serious faults (mtbf), and the measurement method is as follows: in a series of specified task profiles, the ratio of the total time for an aircraft to execute tasks to the total number of serious faults is originally called the task time between fatal faults;
and secondly, describing tasks under different use scenes according to the time sequence of events and environments experienced by the equipment in the period of completing the specified tasks, determining the time of different task sections of the equipment, and providing input for subsequent development index distribution.
Thirdly, calculating the task reliability of the aircraft under different task sections according to the working time of the military aircraft under the different task sections, and calculating the task reliability level of the aircraft by adopting a weighted average method according to the use frequency of each section of the aircraft;
step four, converting the task reliability into task success degree and task failure probability, combing out function failure items causing task failure by carrying out task failure analysis, determining the allowable occurrence probability of function failure under each section, and establishing the unified allowable occurrence probability of task failure caused by different function failures by processing different function failure allowable occurrence probabilities, thereby being used as a design target of the task reliability of the aircraft and the system thereof.
The respective steps are described in detail below.
Step one, the prior military aircraft mission reliability contract requirement is generally expressed as mean time between severe failures (MTBCF), focuses on the capability of products to complete mission, allows non-severe faults to occur, and is designed with the focus of optimizing system functional logic design, architecture design and redundancy configuration by combing the fault logic relationship of the products. The determination of the mission reliability index for a military aircraft only considers those faults that affect the completion of the mission (i.e., critical faults) during the execution of the mission, and the common mission reliability contract requirements for a military aircraft are generally expressed as mean time between critical faults (mtbf), which is measured by: in a series of specified task profiles, the ratio of the total time for an aircraft to execute tasks to the total number of serious faults is originally called the task time between fatal faults;
in the prior development of military aircraft, the allocation of task reliability indexes mainly uses an RBD (reliability block diagram) method, and the method exposes the defects that the effective requirement of task reliability cannot be proposed in the early stage of system development and the later stage is difficult to evaluate in the model development. The index cannot be directly used for designing traction, and needs to be converted and decomposed into requirements on the occurrence probability of functional failure.
In order to strengthen the demand traction effect of task reliability on system design, a more definite task reliability design requirement is provided for the system in early development, the task reliability level of the system is continuously controlled and effectively improved in the development process, in military aircraft development, task reliability design analysis and evaluation based on functional failure are to be developed, a Fault Tree (FTA) is constructed for the functional failure state affecting the task, and the top layer requirement is decomposed to the fault mode of a unit layer by layer, so that quantitative index evaluation and system architecture optimization are realized.
And step two, combing the typical task section. The typical mission section of the military aircraft is based on the typical fight scene of the aircraft, the stages and the time of different fight scenes are different, if the mission reliability design and analysis are carried out according to all mission sections, the workload is large, the iteration period is longer, the repetitive work is more, and the matching performance with the model development progress is poor. Therefore, the characteristics of each task are required to be comprehensively balanced, the task section required by the task reliability design analysis is defined, all the task sections of the military aircraft can be covered, and the requirements of engineering development are met.
When the military aircraft performs task reliability task section combination, the following factors are mainly considered:
A. according to the typical mission profile of the military aircraft, main mission categories of the military aircraft, such as mission types of transportation, early warning, air drop, striking and the like, are combed;
B. the task reliability analysis has a direct relation with the task time, so that task sections with longer task time need to be independently reserved and are not combined with other sections;
C. after comprehensively analyzing typical task profiles, merging similar profiles based on the flight phase;
D. to ensure integrity, the combined profile must contain all of the flight phases involved in the combined mission profile.
And step three, determining the time of each typical task section. After the mission reliability mission profiles of the military aircraft are combined, the time of each typical mission profile is mainly determined by the following steps:
firstly, regarding the task sections with identical flight phases, taking the maximum value of the time of each flight phase as the flight phase time of the combined section;
the following is then performed for the sections differing in flight phase:
1) When the corresponding time of the same flight phase in the combined sections is completely contained (namely, the time of each flight phase of a certain mission section is not less than the time of the flight phase corresponding to other sections), the time of the differential flight phase and the time of the same flight phase are all the maximum;
2) When the corresponding time of the same flight phase in the combined sections cannot be completely contained, the time of the differential flight phase takes the maximum value, and the time of the same flight phase takes a weighted average value (when the frequency ratio of each section cannot be known, the same treatment is carried out by temporarily pressing the frequency ratio of each section).
Repeating the steps 1) and 2) to process the profiles until the profiles are combined into a task profile.
And step four, calculating the task reliability under each task section and converting indexes.
According to the relevant requirements of the GJB1909A-2009 (equipment reliability maintainability assurance requirements demonstration), mission reliability parameters of a military aircraft are generally selected as mission reliability or average critical inter-fault time, and the two parameters can be converted through the following formulas in engineering calculation:
R M ＝e -λt (1)；
λ=1/mtbf (assuming compliance with an exponential distribution) (2);
wherein: r is R M -task reliability;
lambda-failure rate;
t-task time.
Task reliability R M Generally expressed in terms of the reliability of the equipment to complete a mission profile, many factors affect the completion of the mission, such as environmental conditions of the battlefield, functional characteristics of the equipment, etc. The parameter commonly used to represent task success is task success (denoted by D), and D only considers the influence of reliability and maintainability on task completion, and the probability of task completion, i.e., task success probability, is considered from the viewpoint of design characteristics such as reliability maintainability. The calculation formula is as follows:
D＝R M +(1-R M )M M (4)；
wherein: d-task success (success probability);
R M -task reliability;
M M -task maintainability;
in general, in a mission section, a probability that damaged equipment is maintained (rush-repaired) at a predetermined maintenance level and for a predetermined time so that the damaged equipment can be put into operation is expressed. For example, if the damaged equipment is restored to a function within 2 hours, the maintenance level of 2 hours is a task maintenance level, if the damaged equipment is not considered to be affected by the continued completion of the task.
According to the above formula, for military aircraft, mission reliability reflects the ability of the aircraft to successfully complete a mission under a specified mission profile, in which the aircraft is not mission maintenance capable, and therefore the mission success probability d=r M At this time, R is M The conversion (task reliability) to D (task success probability) is a conservative treatment.
When task reliability quantitative index requirement decomposition is carried out, according to MTBCF requirements set by a user on an aircraft, the time T and the use frequency of each task section are calculated, the probability requirement that the aircraft is allowed to fail under a given section is calculated, then the safety index determination process is referred, the probability value that the task failure state is allowed to occur under each task section is determined by assuming the number of failure states (referring to similar machine types or carrying out conservative treatment) of the aircraft task failure caused under each task section, the probability value is used as the task failure state probability requirement of a system, the requirement is decomposed to a key failure mode affecting the task by constructing a failure tree, and the quantitative requirement is distributed and transferred.
The method is characterized in that the time T of each combat mission section is required to be determined during execution, the frequency of use of each mission section is determined, then the quantitative failure probability requirement is distributed to each typical mission section by using a weighted average method, and then the quantitative index requirement is determined according to the number of failure states under each mission section and the sections under the condition of considering the allowance.
And fifthly, carding task invalidation items. By carrying out task failure analysis, functional hazards which possibly cause task failure of the aircraft in the whole flight envelope and different flight phases of the aircraft design are identified, failure entries which cause the task failure are combed, and meanwhile, certain redundancy is considered, so that the allowed occurrence probability requirements under each task section given before are corrected.
And step six, determining the probability of occurrence of functional failure under each section. Assuming that n functional failures causing task failure are shared under a certain task section through task failure analysis, the upper limit of the allowable failure probability of the functional failures affecting the completion of the task can be calculated by using formulas (6) and (7).
p M ＝Q M /n (6)；
p H ＝Q M /n*t (7)；
p M : a single function affects the allowed occurrence probability of task failure (each task);
n: total number of functional failures that lead to task failure;
t: the time of one task;
p H : a single function affects task failureThe probability of occurrence (per hour) is allowed;
and step seven, failure probability comprehensive treatment. When calculating the allowable occurrence probability of the function failure under the single section according to the formulas (6) and (7), considering iteration and perfection in the engineering analysis process, and when establishing the failure probability, performing conservative treatment (taking a coefficient of 1.2-1.5) on the function failure item to obtain the allowable occurrence probability of the function failure under the single task section. When the multi-section failure probability comprehensive processing is carried out, the allowable failure probability of each section can be weighted and averaged according to the use frequency of each section according to engineering requirements, and the most severe requirement can be selected as a task reliability design target of all sections.
Example 1
By way of example, assume that the mission reliability design requirement for a complete machine of a military aircraft is that the mean time between severe failures (mtbf) should be no less than 380fh (design target value). With the design target value 380 as the index requirement, according to
λ＝1/MTBCF；
λ=1/380=0.003;
assume that a military aircraft includes 3 mission profiles, designated mission profile 1, mission profile 2, and mission profile 3. The task time of the task section 1 is 13h, the task time of the task section 1 is 8h, and the task time of the task section 1 is 24h.
The aircraft is assumed to have large differences in three task profiles, and each profile does not need to be processed.
According to R M ＝e -λt The task reliability levels available for profile 1, profile 2 and profile 3 are respectively:
for military aircraft, the mission reliability is equal to the mission success probability because maintenance is not performed during the course of performing the combat mission.
With the task success probability, the task failure probability under each task section can be expressed as:
Q M1 ＝1-R M1 ＝1-97％＝0.03；
Q M2 ＝1-R M2 ＝1-97.9％＝0.02；
Q M3 ＝1-R M3 ＝1-93.9％＝0.06；
assuming that the number of failure states which cause task failure under the task section 1, the task section 2 and the task section 3 is not more than 800, 1000 and 500, taking the margin of 1.2 into consideration and taking the number of the failure states as 1000, 1200 and 600 respectively, the failure probability that each failure state affecting the task completion is allowed to occur is about
P M1 ＝0.03/1000＝3*10 -5 ；
P M2 ＝0.02/1200＝1.7*10 -5 ；
P M3 ＝0.06/600＝1*10 -4 ；
The probability requirement at this time is for the failure probability allowed when performing one combat mission, which translates into a failure probability allowed per flight hour of about:
P' M1 ＝3*10 -5 /13＝2.3*10 -6 /FH；
P' M2 ＝1.7*10 -5 /8＝2.1*10 -6 /FH；
P' M3 ＝3*10 -5 /24＝4.2*10 -6 /FH；
according to the assumption that the use frequency of the section 1, the section 2 and the section 3 is 1/4,1/2 and 1/4, the probability of occurrence of single function failure permission of the airplane is obtained by weighted average of the failure probabilities:
Q heald ＝1/4*2.3*10 -6 +1/2*2.1*10 -6 +1/4*4.2*10 -6 ＝2.7*10 -6 /FH。
The most severe failure probability allowed under the three sections can be used as the occurrence probability allowed by the single function failure of the airplane:
Q heald ＝Min(Q M1 ，Q M2 ，Q M3 )＝2.1*10 -6 /FH。
Claims (3)
1. The method for distributing the mission reliability index of the military aircraft is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
carding typical mission sections of the military aircraft and working phase time thereof to obtain fused mission sections and mission time of each mission section;
acquiring preset task reliability, or calculating the task reliability of the military aircraft according to preset average severe fault interval time and task time;
determining task failure probability of each task section according to the task reliability;
according to the task failure probability of each task section, determining the allowable occurrence probability that a single function affects the corresponding task failure every hour in each task;
according to the allowable occurrence probability that a single function affects failure of a corresponding task every hour in each task under each task section, the failure probability is comprehensively processed to obtain the allowable occurrence probability of single function failure of the aircraft; the occurrence probability of task failure unification caused by different function failures is established by processing the occurrence probability allowed by different function failures, and the occurrence probability is used as a design target of the task reliability of the aircraft and the system thereof;
wherein, comb the typical mission section of the military aircraft and each working phase time thereof, including:
classifying the mission profile of the military aircraft according to the typical mission profile of the military aircraft and the combat type;
the sections with the task time more than twice of the average task time of other sections are independently reserved;
merging task sections which are not independently reserved based on the flight phase; the combined profile must contain all the flight phases involved in the combined mission profile;
for the task sections with the completely same flight phases, taking the maximum value of the time of each flight phase as the flight phase time of the combined section;
the following is done for the sections with differences in flight phase:
when the time corresponding to the same flight phase in the combined section is completely contained, namely, the time of each flight phase of a certain task section is not less than the time of the flight phase corresponding to other sections, and the time of the differential flight phase and the time of the same flight phase are both maximum;
when the times corresponding to the same flight phases in the combined sections cannot be completely contained, the time of the differential flight phase is maximized, and the time of the same flight phase is weighted average.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the failure probability synthesis process obtains the occurrence probability of the single function failure permission of the aircraft according to the allowed occurrence probability of the single function per hour in each task section to affect the corresponding task failure, and the method comprises the following steps:
and carrying out weighted average on the allowable occurrence probability of the failure of the corresponding task of the single function per hour in each task under each task section according to the using frequency of each section to obtain the allowable occurrence probability of the failure of the single function of the airplane.
3. The method of claim 1, wherein the failure probability synthesis process obtains the occurrence probability of the single function failure permission of the aircraft according to the allowed occurrence probability of the single function per hour in each task section to affect the corresponding task failure, and the method comprises the following steps:
the smallest probability of the allowed occurrence probabilities of the failure of the single function affecting the corresponding task in each hour is selected as the occurrence probability of the failure of the single function of the airplane.
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