CN111291448A - Military aircraft mission reliability index distribution method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention belongs to the field of aviation quality and reliability, and particularly relates to a military aircraft mission reliability index distribution method. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring a parameter for measuring the task reliability of the military aircraft under each task profile, namely the task reliability; determining the task failure probability of each task section according to the task reliability; determining the allowable occurrence probability of the effect of a single function on the corresponding task failure in each time of the task according to the task failure probability of each task section; and comprehensively processing the failure probability to obtain the allowable occurrence probability of the failure of the single function of the airplane according to the allowable occurrence probability of the failure of the corresponding task influenced by the single function per hour in each task under each task section.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the field of aviation quality and reliability, and particularly relates to a military aircraft mission reliability index distribution method.
Background
Mission reliability is the ability of a product to perform a specified function within a specified mission profile. The design focus is to optimize the functional logic design, the architecture design and the redundancy configuration of the system by combing the fault logic relationship of the product. Mission reliability is a direct reflection and important guarantee of the ability of the aviation equipment to complete mission missions.
In the current aviation equipment development process, clear quantitative requirements are provided for the task reliability work of the whole machine and the system. The task reliability model is the core and the foundation for realizing the task reliability design of the aeronautical equipment. The task reliability modeling technology mainly relied on by the current model is a reliability block diagram-based modeling technology. The method mainly comprises the steps of analyzing the influence of independent failure of each component on the reliability of the system according to the functional relationship of the system, establishing a task reliability model (such as a series model, a parallel model, a series-parallel model, a voting model and the like), and then calculating the task reliability of the system by taking the predicted value of the component as input and the reliability of the component. However, the application of the modeling method has 3 important hypothesis preconditions:
1) the logical relationship of the system to the unit failure is determined.
2) The system only considers two states of 'normal' and 'fault'.
3) The faults of the system composition units are independent from each other, and the fault rate is constant.
Therefore, the method cannot describe the complex behavior characteristics and fault characteristics of the actual system, and has limited effect on guiding the design improvement of the system, so that the method is not easy to be recognized by designers.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the problems, the invention provides a military aircraft mission reliability index distribution method, which is characterized in that mission failure analysis is carried out on each mission section of a military aircraft, the mission reliability requirements which can be designed, realized and verified are put forward on aircraft systems and equipment in the early stage of model development, and a quantitative target is established for the subsequent mission reliability design analysis and verification. The method can be directly applied to the decomposition and transmission of task reliability indexes of various domestic aviation equipment, and the use requirements of users on the aviation equipment are converted into the designable and constrained requirements of airplanes, systems and airborne equipment to be used as the targets of subsequent evaluation and verification.
The invention provides a military aircraft mission reliability index distribution method, which comprises the following steps:
acquiring a parameter for measuring the task reliability of the military aircraft under each task profile, namely the task reliability;
determining the task failure probability of each task section according to the task reliability;
determining the allowable occurrence probability of the effect of a single function on the corresponding task failure in each time of the task according to the task failure probability of each task section;
and comprehensively processing the failure probability to obtain the allowable occurrence probability of the failure of the single function of the airplane according to the allowable occurrence probability of the failure of the corresponding task influenced by the single function per hour in each task under each task section.
Further, obtaining parameters that measure mission reliability of the military aircraft includes:
acquiring preset task reliability;
or calculating the mission reliability of the military aircraft according to the preset average serious fault interval time and the mission time.
Further, before obtaining parameters that measure mission reliability of the military aircraft at various mission profiles, the method further comprises:
and (4) combing typical mission profiles and the working phase time of the military aircraft to obtain the fused mission profiles and the mission time of each mission profile.
Further, the typical mission profile and the working phase time of the military aircraft are combed, which comprises the following steps:
classifying the mission profile of the military aircraft according to the combat type according to the typical mission profile of the military aircraft;
independently reserving the section with the task time more than twice of the average task time of other sections;
merging the task profiles which are not independently reserved based on the flight phase; the merged profile must contain all flight phases involved in the merged mission profile.
Further, the typical mission profile and the working phase time of the military aircraft are combed, and the method further comprises the following steps:
taking the maximum value of each flight phase time as the flight phase time of the combined section for the mission sections with the same flight phase;
the following processing is performed for the differential flight phase profiles:
when the time corresponding to the same flight phase in the combined section is completely contained, namely the time of each flight phase of a certain task section is not less than the time of the flight phase corresponding to other sections, and the time of the differential flight phase and the time of the same flight phase are both maximum values;
when the times corresponding to the same flight phases in the combined profiles cannot be completely accommodated, the times of the differential flight phases take the maximum value, and the times of the same flight phases take the weighted average value.
Further, according to the allowable occurrence probability of the failure of the corresponding task caused by the influence of the single function per hour on each task in each task section, the failure probability is comprehensively processed to obtain the allowable occurrence probability of the failure of the single function of the airplane, and the method comprises the following steps:
and carrying out weighted average on the allowable occurrence probability of the failure of the corresponding task due to the influence of the single function per hour in each task under each task section according to the use frequency of each section to obtain the allowable occurrence probability of the single function failure of the airplane.
Further, according to the allowable occurrence probability of the failure of the corresponding task caused by the influence of the single function per hour on each task in each task section, the failure probability is comprehensively processed to obtain the allowable occurrence probability of the failure of the single function of the airplane, and the method comprises the following steps:
and selecting the smallest probability of the single function influencing the corresponding task failure in each hour as the probability of the single function failure of the airplane.
Further, the task success probability is the task reliability.
The invention has the advantages that: the functional failure task reliability index distribution method can carry out demand traction on aviation weaponry and system design, provides clear task reliability requirements for functions influencing the completion of aviation equipment tasks, and provides input for continuous control of products of different levels, optimization of system architecture, quantitative index evaluation and improvement of task reliability level in the subsequent development process.
Detailed Description
With the rapid development of the aviation industry, the complexity of the system and the cross-linking relationship between the systems is greatly increased, the above assumption is often not true, and the following complex characteristics are often shown in the actual system:
1) dynamic reconfigurable features
In an avionics system adopting a comprehensive modular architecture, due to the existence of a dynamic reconfigurable mechanism, the failure of the system function and the failure of unit hardware are no longer in a deterministic relationship, and under the condition of unit failure, whether the system function fails or not is mainly related to factors such as software configuration, a real-time scheduling mechanism, the quantity of resources and the like of the system.
2) Multistate features
In most electromechanical/mechanical systems, each unit generally experiences multiple intermediate conditions from a normal condition to a complete failure, such as partial wear, wear over-limit, etc. for a wear failure mode of the part; for the fatigue failure mode, the fatigue failure mode is subjected to multiple states of crack initiation, crack propagation, fracture and the like; for the performance degradation, various states such as normal performance, performance deficiency, and performance over-tolerance are experienced. During the evolution of the multiple components from the normal state to the fault state, the coupling of the intermediate state can cause the system to fail even though the components do not completely fail. For such systems, it is obviously not sufficient to consider only the binary state of the system.
3) Failure related features
In a load sharing system or a system with a tight energy transfer relationship, the correlation between unit failure modes is not negligible, and the failure of a certain unit of the system is likely to cause the increase or decrease of the load of the remaining related units, thereby causing the failure rate to change. For example, failure of one motor in a dual-redundancy motor system may result in an increase in the load on the remaining one motor, thereby resulting in an increase in its failure rate; in the series multi-connecting-rod structure, the strength decay of one pull rod can accelerate the self-fracture process, but the failure of the other pull rods is delayed.
Therefore, aiming at the urgent need of aviation equipment development for task reliability design technology, a set of functional model-based task reliability design analysis and evaluation method is provided, in order to strengthen the requirement traction effect of task reliability on system and airborne equipment architecture design, all functional failures which cause task failure must be identified at the initial development stage, quantitative probability requirements are distributed, and top-layer requirements are decomposed layer by layer to the failure mode of a unit, so that the evaluation of quantitative indexes and the optimization of a system architecture are realized.
The invention relates to a military aircraft mission reliability index distribution method, which mainly comprises the following steps:
step one, only faults (namely serious faults) influencing task completion during task execution are considered when determining the mission reliability index of the military aircraft, and the common mission reliability contract requirement of the military aircraft is usually expressed as mean time between serious faults (MTBCF), and the measurement method is as follows: in a specified series of mission profiles, the ratio of the total time of the aircraft to perform the mission to the total number of serious faults is originally called the mission time between fatal faults;
and step two, describing the tasks under different use scenes according to the time sequence of events and environments in the period of completing the specified task by the equipment, determining the time of different task profiles of the equipment, and providing input for subsequent index distribution.
Calculating the task reliability of the airplane under different task profiles according to the working time of the military airplane under different task profiles, and calculating the task reliability level of the airplane by adopting a weighted average method according to the use frequency of each profile of the airplane;
and step four, converting the task reliability into task success and task failure probability, combing functional failure items causing task failure by developing task failure analysis, determining the probability of occurrence of functional failure allowance under each section, processing the probability of occurrence of different functional failure allowances, and establishing the uniform probability of occurrence of task failure caused by different functional failures to serve as a task reliability design target of the airplane and the system thereof.
The respective steps are explained in detail below.
Step one, the requirement of the conventional military aircraft mission reliability contract is generally expressed as mean time between failure (MTBCF), the capability of a product for completing missions is focused on, non-severe faults are allowed to occur, and the design focus is to optimize the functional logic design, the architecture design and the redundancy configuration of a system by combing the fault logic relationship of the product. While only those faults that affect mission completion during mission execution (i.e., critical faults) are considered in determining mission reliability indicators for military aircraft, common mission reliability contract requirements for military aircraft are often expressed as Mean Time Between Critical Failures (MTBCF) measured by: in a specified series of mission profiles, the ratio of the total time of the aircraft to perform the mission to the total number of serious faults is originally called the mission time between fatal faults;
in the past military aircraft development, the task reliability index is mainly distributed by using an RBD (reliability block diagram) method, and the method has the defects that the effective requirement of the task reliability cannot be provided in the early stage of system development and the task reliability is difficult to evaluate in the later stage in model development. The index cannot be directly used for designing traction and needs to be converted and decomposed into requirements on the occurrence probability of functional failure.
In order to strengthen the requirement traction effect of task reliability on system design, clear task reliability design requirements are put forward to a system in the early development stage, the reliability level of the system task is continuously controlled and effectively improved in the development process, in the development of military aircrafts, task reliability design analysis and evaluation based on functional failure are planned to be carried out, a Fault Tree (FTA) is constructed on the functional failure state influencing the task, the top layer requirements are decomposed to the fault mode of units layer by layer, and quantitative index evaluation and system architecture optimization are realized.
Step two, typical task profile carding. The typical mission profile of the military aircraft is combed based on the typical battle scene of the aircraft, the stages and the time of different battle scenes are different, if the mission reliability design and analysis is carried out according to all mission profiles, the workload is large, the iteration period is long, the repetitive work is more, and the matching performance with the model development progress is poor. Therefore, the characteristics of each task need to be comprehensively balanced, the task profile required by the task reliability design analysis is defined, all task profiles of the military aircraft can be covered, and the requirements of engineering development are met.
When the military aircraft carries out task reliability task profile merging, the following factors are mainly considered:
A. according to a typical mission profile of a military aircraft, combing main mission categories of the military aircraft, such as mission types of transportation, early warning, air drop, strike and the like;
B. the task reliability analysis has a direct relation with the task time, so certain task profiles with longer task time need to be independently reserved and are not combined with other profiles;
C. after comprehensively analyzing the typical task profiles, merging the similar profiles based on the flight phase;
D. to ensure integrity, the merged profile must contain all flight phases involved in the merged mission profile.
And step three, determining the time of each typical task section. After the mission reliability mission profiles of the military aircraft are combined, the time of each typical mission profile is mainly determined by the following steps:
firstly, taking the maximum value of each flight phase time as the flight phase time of the combined section for the mission sections with the same flight phase;
then, the following processing is performed for the sections with the difference in flight phase:
1) when the time corresponding to the same flight phase in the combined profiles completely contains (namely the time of each flight phase of a certain task profile is not less than the time of the flight phase corresponding to other profiles), the time of the differential flight phase and the time of the same flight phase both take the maximum value;
2) when the time corresponding to the same flight phase in the combined profiles cannot be completely contained, the time of the differential flight phase is the maximum value, and the time of the same flight phase is the weighted average value (when the frequency ratio of the use of each profile cannot be obtained, the same treatment is performed according to the frequency ratio of the use of each profile temporarily).
And (3) repeating the steps 1) and 2) to process the sections until the sections are combined into a task section.
And step four, calculating the task reliability under each task section and performing index conversion.
According to the related requirements of GJB1909A-2009 (equipment reliability maintainability guarantee requirement demonstration), the mission reliability parameters of military aircrafts are usually selected from mission reliability or mean critical fault interval time, and the two parameters can be converted by the following formula in engineering calculation:
RM＝e-λt(1)；
λ ═ 1/MTBCF (assuming exponential distribution obeyed) (2);
in the formula: rM-task reliability;
λ -failure rate;
t-task time.
Task reliability RMGenerally, the reliability of a section of a task completed by equipment is expressed, and factors influencing the task completion are many, such as environmental conditions of a battlefield, functional characteristics of the equipment and the like. A commonly used parameter indicating task success is the task success (denoted by D), which considers only the influence of reliability and maintainability on the task completion, and considers the probability of task completion, i.e., the task success probability, from the viewpoint of design characteristics such as reliability and maintainability. The calculation formula is as follows:
D＝RM+(1-RM)MM(4)；
in the formula: d-task success (success probability);
RM-task reliability;
MM-degree of task maintenance;
generally used in mission profiles, the probability of repairing (first-aid repair) a damaged equipment at a specified repair level and for a specified time to enable it to continue to be placed into operation is indicative. For example, if the damaged equipment is restored within 2h and the equipment is considered not to be affected to continue the task, the maintenance level of 2h is the task maintenance level.
For military use, according to the formulaFor an aircraft, the mission reliability reflects the ability of the aircraft to successfully complete a flight mission at a given mission profile, in which the aircraft does not have mission maintenance capability, and therefore the mission success probability D-RMAt this time, R is addedMThe conversion (task reliability) to D (task success probability) is a conservative process.
When the task reliability quantitative index requirement is decomposed, according to MTBCF requirements of users on the aircraft, time T and use frequency of each task section, the probability requirement of the aircraft for task failure allowed under the given section is calculated, then the safety index determining process is referred, the probability value of the task failure allowed under each task section is determined by assuming the number of failure states (referring to similar machine types or conservative processing) causing the aircraft task failure under each task section, the probability value is used as the task failure state probability requirement of the system, the requirement is decomposed to a key fault mode influencing the task by constructing a fault tree, and the quantitative requirement is distributed and transmitted.
The method comprises the steps of determining the time T of each battle task section and the use frequency of each task section during execution, distributing quantitative failure probability requirements to each typical task section by using a weighted average method, and determining quantitative index requirements by dividing the sections under the condition of considering the allowance according to the number of failure states of each task section.
And step five, combing the task failure items. By carrying out task failure analysis, functional dangers which may cause the failure of the task of the airplane in the whole flight envelope and different flight stages of the airplane design are identified, and the requirement of the allowable occurrence probability under each task section given before is corrected by combing the failure items which cause the failure of the task and considering certain redundancy.
And step six, determining the probability of the occurrence of the functional failure under each section. Assuming that n functional failures which cause task failure exist under a certain task section through task failure analysis, the upper limit of the failure probability allowed by the functional failures which affect the task completion can be calculated by using the formulas (6) and (7), and the upper limit is shown in table 3.
pM＝QM/n (6)；
pH＝QM/n*t (7)；
pM: a single function affects the probability of an allowed occurrence of a task failure (per task);
n: total number of functional failures that caused the task to fail;
t: a task time;
pH: a single function affects the allowable probability of occurrence (per hour) of a task failure;
and seventhly, comprehensively processing failure probability. When calculating the probability of the occurrence of the functional failure allowance under a single section according to the formulas (6) and (7), considering iteration and perfection required in the engineering analysis process, and when establishing the failure probability, performing conservative processing (such as taking a coefficient of 1.2-1.5) on the functional failure entry to obtain the probability of the occurrence of the functional failure allowance under the single task section. When the multi-section failure probability is comprehensively processed, according to engineering requirements, the allowable failure probability of each section can be weighted and averaged according to the use frequency of each section, and the most severe requirement can be selected as a task reliability design target of all the sections.
Example one
For example, suppose that the mission reliability design requirement of a military aircraft is that the Mean Time Between Critical Failure (MTBCF) should be no less than 380fh (design target). Using the design target value 380 as an index requirement
λ＝1/MTBCF；
λ 1/380 ═ 0.003;
assume that a military aircraft includes 3 mission profiles, denoted as mission profile 1, mission profile 2, and mission profile 3. The task time of the task section 1 is 13h, the task time of the task section 1 is 8h, and the task time of the task section 1 is 24 h.
The three mission profiles of the airplane are assumed to be different greatly, and the processing of each profile is not needed.
According to RM＝e-λtThe task reliability levels corresponding to the available profile 1, profile 2 and profile 3 are:
for military aircraft, task reliability is equal to the probability of success since no maintenance is performed during the execution of the combat task.
After the task success probability exists, the task failure probability under each task section can be expressed as:
QM1＝1-RM1＝1-97％＝0.03；
QM2＝1-RM2＝1-97.9％＝0.02；
QM3＝1-RM3＝1-93.9％＝0.06；
assuming that the number of failure states causing task failure under the task section 1, the task section 2 and the task section 3 does not exceed 800, 1000 and 500, and considering the margin of 1.2, the number of failure states is 1000, 1200 and 600 respectively, so that the failure probability allowed to occur for each failure state affecting task completion is about
PM1＝0.03/1000＝3*10-5；
PM2＝0.02/1200＝1.7*10-5；
PM3＝0.06/600＝1*10-4；
The probability requirement in this case is the probability of failure permitted for the execution of a combat mission, which translates into a probability of failure per flight hour of about:
P'M1＝3*10-5/13＝2.3*10-6/FH；
P'M2＝1.7*10-5/8＝2.1*10-6/FH；
P'M3＝3*10-5/24＝4.2*10-6/FH；
according to the assumption that the use frequency of the section 1, the section 2 and the section 3 is 1/4, 1/2 and 1/4, after the failure probabilities are weighted and averaged, the allowable occurrence probability of the single function failure of the airplane is obtained as follows:
Qheald＝1/4*2.3*10-6+1/2*2.1*10-6+1/4*4.2*10-6＝2.7*10-6/FH。
The most severe probability of failure allowed under the three profiles mentioned above can also be taken as the probability of occurrence of a single functional failure of the aircraft allowed:
Qheald＝Min(QM1，QM2，QM3)＝2.1*10-6/FH。
Claims (8)
1. A military aircraft mission reliability index distribution method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring a parameter for measuring the task reliability of the military aircraft under each task profile, namely the task reliability;
determining the task failure probability of each task section according to the task reliability;
determining the allowable occurrence probability of the effect of a single function on the corresponding task failure in each time of the task according to the task failure probability of each task section;
and comprehensively processing the failure probability to obtain the allowable occurrence probability of the failure of the single function of the airplane according to the allowable occurrence probability of the failure of the corresponding task influenced by the single function per hour in each task under each task section.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein obtaining parameters that measure mission reliability of a military aircraft comprises:
acquiring preset task reliability;
or calculating the mission reliability of the military aircraft according to the preset average serious fault interval time and the mission time.
3. The method of claim 2, wherein prior to obtaining parameters that measure mission reliability of the military aircraft at various mission profiles, the method further comprises:
and (4) combing typical mission profiles and the working phase time of the military aircraft to obtain the fused mission profiles and the mission time of each mission profile.
4. The method of claim 1, wherein the step of combing the typical mission profile and its respective operating phase times of the military aircraft comprises:
classifying the mission profile of the military aircraft according to the combat type according to the typical mission profile of the military aircraft;
independently reserving the section with the task time more than twice of the average task time of other sections;
merging the task profiles which are not independently reserved based on the flight phase; the merged profile must contain all flight phases involved in the merged mission profile.
5. The method of claim 4, wherein the step of combing the typical mission profile and its respective operating phase times of the military aircraft further comprises:
taking the maximum value of each flight phase time as the flight phase time of the combined section for the mission sections with the same flight phase;
the following processing is performed for the differential flight phase profiles:
when the time corresponding to the same flight phase in the combined section is completely contained, namely the time of each flight phase of a certain task section is not less than the time of the flight phase corresponding to other sections, and the time of the differential flight phase and the time of the same flight phase are both maximum values;
when the times corresponding to the same flight phases in the combined profiles cannot be completely accommodated, the times of the differential flight phases take the maximum value, and the times of the same flight phases take the weighted average value.
6. The method according to claim 1, wherein the failure probability comprehensive processing is used for obtaining the probability of occurrence of failure allowance of the single function of the airplane according to the probability of occurrence allowance of failure of the corresponding task caused by the single function influence per hour in each task under each task section, and comprises the following steps:
and carrying out weighted average on the allowable occurrence probability of the failure of the corresponding task due to the influence of the single function per hour in each task under each task section according to the use frequency of each section to obtain the allowable occurrence probability of the single function failure of the airplane.
7. The method according to claim 1, wherein the failure probability comprehensive processing is used for obtaining the probability of occurrence of failure allowance of the single function of the airplane according to the probability of occurrence allowance of failure of the corresponding task caused by the single function influence per hour in each task under each task section, and comprises the following steps:
and selecting the smallest probability of the single function influencing the corresponding task failure in each hour as the probability of the single function failure of the airplane.
8. The method of claim 1, wherein the task success probability is a task reliability.
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