CN111126708A - Method and device for predicting generating capacity of through-flow turbine - Google Patents
Method and device for predicting generating capacity of through-flow turbine Download PDFInfo
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- CN111126708A CN111126708A CN201911370691.3A CN201911370691A CN111126708A CN 111126708 A CN111126708 A CN 111126708A CN 201911370691 A CN201911370691 A CN 201911370691A CN 111126708 A CN111126708 A CN 111126708A
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- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
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Abstract
The application discloses a method and a device for predicting the generating capacity of a through-flow turbine, wherein the method comprises the following steps: obtaining a prediction parameter for predicting the generation of the through-flow turbine, wherein the prediction parameter comprises: the water flow H of a water storage device connected with the through-flow turbine, the water outlet quantity F of the water storage device, the turbine efficiency E1, the generator efficiency E2 and the gravity constant g; determining a plurality of first predicted generating capacities of the tubular turbine within a preset time according to the prediction parameters based on a first preset formula; and repairing each first predicted power generation amount according to the actual historical power generation amount curve of the through-flow turbine to obtain the corresponding target predicted power generation amount, so that the technical problems that the power generation prediction of the through-flow turbine involves more parameters and the randomness of the parameters is high, the prediction difficulty of the power generation amount of the through-flow turbine is increased and the accuracy of the predicted power generation amount is low in the conventional power generation prediction of the through-flow turbine are solved.
Description
Technical Field
The application relates to the technical field of hydroelectric power generation, in particular to a method and a device for predicting the generating capacity of a through-flow turbine.
Background
With the development of electric power technology, China draws attention to the power generation technology. Aiming at different power generation types and power generation scales, corresponding generator sets are researched so as to realize reasonable power generation and ensure stable power supply.
The tubular turbine has the advantages of small volume, low construction cost, short construction period, quick effect and the like, and is widely applied to small hydroelectric power stations. The generated energy obtained by predicting the generated energy of the through-flow turbine can not only carry out power generation arrangement on a power station provided with the through-flow turbine, but also enable the power station to participate in economic market scheduling.
When the generated energy of the conventional through-flow turbine is predicted, because the generated energy of the turbine is predicted by a plurality of parameters and the randomness of the parameters is strong, the prediction difficulty of the generated energy of the turbine is increased, and the predicted generated energy is low in accuracy.
Disclosure of Invention
The application provides a method and a device for predicting the generating capacity of a through-flow turbine, which solve the technical problems that the accuracy of predicted generating capacity is lower due to the fact that the generating capacity of the turbine is predicted by a plurality of parameters and the randomness of the parameters is high when the generating capacity of the through-flow turbine is predicted in the prior art.
In view of the above, a first aspect of the present application provides a method for predicting the power generation of a flow turbine, including:
obtaining a prediction parameter for predicting the generation of the through-flow turbine, wherein the prediction parameter comprises: the water flow H of a water storage device connected with the through-flow turbine, the water outlet quantity F of the water storage device, the turbine efficiency E1, the generator efficiency E2 and the gravity constant g;
determining a plurality of first predicted generating capacities of the tubular turbine within a preset time according to the prediction parameters based on a first preset formula, wherein the first preset formula is as follows: p ═ H × F × g × E1 × E2, P being the first predicted power generation amount;
and repairing each first predicted power generation amount according to the actual historical power generation amount curve of the through-flow turbine to obtain the corresponding target predicted power generation amount.
Optionally, the repairing each first predicted power generation amount according to the actual historical power generation amount curve of the tubular turbine to obtain the corresponding target predicted power generation amount specifically includes:
supplementing a missing value in the first predicted power generation amount according to an actual historical power generation amount curve of the through-flow turbine;
correcting the first predicted power generation amount deviating from the preset distance of the actual historical power generation amount curve according to the actual historical power generation amount curve;
performing root mean square calculation on the repaired or corrected first predicted power generation amount and the power generation amount data in the actual historical power generation amount curve to obtain a root mean square value;
and correcting the repaired or corrected first predicted power generation amount by using the root mean square value to obtain a corresponding target predicted power generation amount.
Optionally, the method for repairing each first predicted power generation amount according to the actual historical power generation amount curve of the tubular turbine to obtain a corresponding target predicted power generation amount further includes:
acquiring actual generating capacity corresponding to the target prediction quantity of the through-flow turbine;
and after the actual power generation amount is added to the actual historical power generation amount curve, fitting the actual historical power generation amount curve to obtain a new actual historical power generation amount curve.
Optionally, the repairing each first predicted power generation amount according to the actual historical power generation amount curve of the tubular turbine to obtain a corresponding target predicted power generation amount further includes:
and sending the target predicted power generation amount to a dispatching center, so that the dispatching center carries out corresponding dispatching on the target predicted power generation amount.
Optionally, before the repairing each first predicted power generation amount according to the actual historical power generation amount curve of the tubular turbine to obtain the corresponding target predicted power generation amount, the method further includes:
and acquiring an actual historical generating capacity curve of the through-flow turbine.
The second aspect of the present application provides a device for predicting the amount of power generated by a flow turbine, comprising:
a first obtaining unit configured to obtain a prediction parameter for predicting a through-flow turbine power generation amount, wherein the prediction parameter includes: the water flow H of a water storage device connected with the through-flow turbine, the water outlet quantity F of the water storage device, the turbine efficiency E1, the generator efficiency E2 and the gravity constant g;
the prediction unit is used for determining a plurality of first predicted generating capacities of the tubular turbine within preset time according to the prediction parameters based on a first preset formula, wherein the first preset formula is as follows: p ═ H × F × g × E1 × E2, P being the first predicted power generation amount;
and the correcting unit is used for repairing each first predicted power generation amount according to the actual historical power generation amount curve of the tubular turbine to obtain the corresponding target predicted power generation amount.
Optionally, the correction unit specifically includes:
the supplement subunit is used for supplementing the missing value in the first predicted power generation amount according to the actual historical power generation amount curve of the tubular turbine;
the first correction subunit is used for correcting the first predicted power generation amount deviating from the preset distance of the actual historical power generation amount curve according to the actual historical power generation amount curve;
the first calculating subunit is used for performing root mean square calculation on the first predicted power generation amount after being repaired or corrected and the power generation amount data in the actual historical power generation amount curve to obtain a root mean square value;
and the second correction subunit is used for correcting the repaired or corrected first predicted power generation amount by using the root mean square value to obtain a corresponding target predicted power generation amount.
Optionally, the method further comprises:
the second acquisition unit is used for acquiring the actual power generation amount corresponding to the target prediction amount of the through-flow turbine;
and the fitting unit is used for performing linear fitting on the actual historical power generation curve after the actual power generation is added to the actual historical power generation curve to obtain a new actual historical power generation curve.
Optionally, the method further comprises:
and the transmitting unit is used for transmitting the target predicted power generation amount to a dispatching center so that the dispatching center carries out corresponding dispatching on the target predicted power generation amount.
Optionally, the method further comprises:
and the third acquisition subunit is used for acquiring an actual historical generating capacity curve of the through-flow turbine.
According to the technical scheme, the embodiment of the application has the following advantages:
the application provides a method for predicting the generating capacity of a through-flow turbine, which comprises the following steps of firstly, obtaining prediction parameters for predicting the generating capacity of the through-flow turbine, wherein the prediction parameters comprise: the method comprises the following steps of determining the water inflow H of a water storage device connected with the through-flow turbine, the water outflow F of the water storage device, the turbine efficiency E1, the generator efficiency E2 and a gravity constant g, and then determining a plurality of first predicted generated energies of the through-flow turbine within preset time according to prediction parameters based on a first preset formula, wherein the first preset formula is as follows: and P is H, F, g, E1, E2, and finally, repairing each first predicted power generation amount according to an actual historical power generation amount curve of the through-flow turbine to obtain a corresponding target predicted power generation amount. In the whole process, when the generated energy is predicted, only 5 prediction parameters are obtained, and the efficiency E1 of the water turbine, the efficiency E2 of the generator and the gravity constant g are all quantitative, so that only two variable parameters are obtained in the whole process, the prediction difficulty caused by random and multiple parameters is reduced to a certain extent, and meanwhile, in order to ensure that when fewer prediction parameters are used, the predicted first predicted generated energy still has higher accuracy, the first predicted generated energy is corrected through an actual historical generated energy curve, so that the technical problem that when the generated energy of the conventional through-flow water turbine is predicted, the power generation prediction of the water turbine involves more parameters and the randomness of the parameters is strong, the prediction difficulty of the generated energy of the water turbine is increased, and the predicted generated energy accuracy is lower is solved.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow diagram of a first embodiment of a method for predicting through-flow turbine power generation in an embodiment of the present application;
FIG. 2 is a schematic flow diagram of a second embodiment of a method for predicting through-flow turbine capacity in an embodiment of the present application;
FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating an actual historical power generation curve in an embodiment of the present application;
fig. 4 is a schematic structural diagram of a prediction device for generating capacity of a through-flow turbine in an embodiment of the present application.
Detailed Description
The embodiment of the application provides a method and a device for predicting the generating capacity of a through-flow turbine, and solves the technical problems that the prediction difficulty of the generating capacity of the through-flow turbine is increased and the accuracy of the predicted generating capacity is low due to the fact that a plurality of parameters are involved in the power generation prediction of the through-flow turbine and the randomness of the parameters is high when the generating capacity of the through-flow turbine is predicted in the prior art.
In order to make the technical solutions of the present application better understood, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present application, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present application, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present application.
Referring to fig. 1, a schematic flow chart of a first embodiment of a method for predicting the power generation of a flow turbine in an embodiment of the present application includes:
The generating capacity of the through-flow turbine depends on the water inlet quantity H and the water outlet quantity F of a water storage device connected with the through-flow turbine to a certain extent, so that when the generating capacity of the through-flow turbine is predicted, the water inlet quantity H and the water outlet quantity F are obtained in addition to the unit parameters of the through-flow turbine. It is understood that the water inflow H and the water outflow F can be measured by water flow meters installed at the water inlet and the water outlet of the water storage device.
And 102, determining a plurality of first predicted generating capacities of the through-flow turbine within preset time according to the prediction parameters based on a first preset formula.
It should be noted that, the first preset formula is: p ═ H × F × g × E1 × E2, where P is the first predicted power generation amount.
And 103, repairing each first predicted power generation amount according to an actual historical power generation amount curve of the through-flow turbine to obtain a corresponding target predicted power generation amount.
After the first predicted power generation amount is obtained, in order to ensure that the predicted first predicted power generation amount is predicted accurately, the first predicted power generation amount is repaired by using an actual historical power generation amount curve of the through-flow turbine.
In this embodiment, first, a prediction parameter for predicting the power generation of the flow turbine is obtained, where the prediction parameter includes: the method comprises the following steps of determining the water inflow H of a water storage device connected with the through-flow turbine, the water outflow F of the water storage device, the turbine efficiency E1, the generator efficiency E2 and a gravity constant g, and then determining a plurality of first predicted generated energies of the through-flow turbine within preset time according to prediction parameters based on a first preset formula, wherein the first preset formula is as follows: and P is H, F, g, E1, E2, and finally, repairing each first predicted power generation amount according to an actual historical power generation amount curve of the through-flow turbine to obtain a corresponding target predicted power generation amount. In the whole process, when the generated energy is predicted, only 5 prediction parameters are obtained, and the efficiency E1 of the water turbine, the efficiency E2 of the generator and the gravity constant g are all quantitative, so that only two variable parameters are obtained in the whole process, the prediction difficulty caused by random and multiple parameters is reduced to a certain extent, and meanwhile, in order to ensure that when fewer prediction parameters are used, the predicted first predicted generated energy still has higher accuracy, the first predicted generated energy is corrected through an actual historical generated energy curve, so that the technical problem that when the generated energy of the conventional through-flow water turbine is predicted, the power generation prediction of the water turbine involves more parameters and the randomness of the parameters is strong, the prediction difficulty of the generated energy of the water turbine is increased, and the predicted generated energy accuracy is lower is solved.
The first embodiment of the method for predicting the power generation capacity of the cross flow turbine provided by the embodiment of the present application is described above, and the second embodiment of the method for predicting the power generation capacity of the cross flow turbine provided by the embodiment of the present application is described below.
Referring to fig. 2, a flow chart of a second embodiment of a method for predicting the generating capacity of a flow turbine in an embodiment of the present application includes:
It should be noted that step 201 is the same as the description of step 101 in the first embodiment, and reference may be specifically made to the description of step 101, which is not described herein again.
And 202, determining a plurality of first predicted generating capacities of the tubular turbine within preset time according to the prediction parameters based on a first preset formula.
It should be noted that, the first preset formula is: p ═ H × F × g × E1 × E2, where P is the first predicted power generation amount.
And step 203, acquiring an actual historical generating capacity curve of the through-flow turbine.
In the present embodiment, an actual history power generation amount curve of the flow turbine is obtained as shown in fig. 3, and the abscissa of the history power generation amount curve in the present embodiment represents time and the ordinate represents power generation amount.
And step 204, supplementing a missing value in the first predicted power generation amount according to an actual historical power generation amount curve of the through-flow turbine.
And step 205, correcting the first predicted power generation amount deviating from the preset distance of the actual historical power generation amount curve according to the actual historical power generation amount curve.
The operation of correcting the first predicted power generation amount that deviates from the preset distance of the actual historical power generation amount curve may be to move the first predicted power generation amount that deviates far into the preset distance range, or may be to move the first predicted power generation amount to an extended line of the first predicted power generation amount curve.
And step 206, performing root mean square calculation on the repaired or corrected first predicted power generation amount and the power generation amount data in the actual historical power generation amount curve to obtain a root mean square value.
Note that the first predicted power generation amount after the correction or the correction is obtained by correcting the first predicted power generation amount deviating from the preset distance of the actual historical power generation amount curve by correcting the deficiency value in the first predicted power generation amount.
And step 207, correcting the repaired or corrected first predicted power generation amount by using the root mean square value to obtain a corresponding target predicted power generation amount.
In order to eliminate the deviation of the individual sample, the root mean square value is obtained by performing root mean square calculation on the corrected first predicted power generation amount and the power generation amount data in the actual historical power generation amount curve.
And step 208, acquiring actual power generation amount corresponding to the target prediction amount of the through-flow turbine.
And step 209, after the actual power generation amount is added to the actual historical power generation amount curve, fitting the actual historical power generation amount curve to obtain a new actual historical power generation amount curve.
In order to further obtain a target predicted discharge amount close to the actual power generation amount of the actual operation in the subsequent period, in this embodiment, a new actual historical power generation amount curve is obtained by fitting the actual power generation amount corresponding to the target predicted amount to the actual historical power generation amount curve.
And step 210, sending the target predicted power generation amount to a dispatching center, so that the dispatching center carries out corresponding dispatching on the target predicted power generation amount.
It should be noted that, when the scheduling center performs scheduling, the following scheduling principle is followed:
1) the line loss is lowest: the line loss problem is considered, and the line loss is effectively reduced by the supply of the hydropower station according to the principle of proximity;
2) preferentially satisfy municipal domestic power consumption: the installed capacity of the hydropower station is much smaller than that of thermal power, the load of municipal domestic electricity is not large, and the hydropower is preferentially considered to meet the municipal domestic electricity;
3) peak shaving use: the hydropower station has fast response, can be used for well peak regulation and solves the problem of peak power utilization.
In this embodiment, first, a prediction parameter for predicting the power generation of the flow turbine is obtained, where the prediction parameter includes: the method comprises the following steps of determining the water inflow H of a water storage device connected with the through-flow turbine, the water outflow F of the water storage device, the turbine efficiency E1, the generator efficiency E2 and a gravity constant g, and then determining a plurality of first predicted generated energies of the through-flow turbine within preset time according to prediction parameters based on a first preset formula, wherein the first preset formula is as follows: and P is H, F, g, E1, E2, and finally, repairing each first predicted power generation amount according to an actual historical power generation amount curve of the through-flow turbine to obtain a corresponding target predicted power generation amount. In the whole process, when the generated energy is predicted, only 5 prediction parameters are obtained, and the efficiency E1 of the water turbine, the efficiency E2 of the generator and the gravity constant g are all quantitative, so that only two variable parameters are obtained in the whole process, the prediction difficulty caused by random and multiple parameters is reduced to a certain extent, and meanwhile, in order to ensure that when fewer prediction parameters are used, the predicted first predicted generated energy still has higher accuracy, the first predicted generated energy is corrected through an actual historical generated energy curve, so that the technical problem that when the generated energy of the conventional through-flow water turbine is predicted, the power generation prediction of the water turbine involves more parameters and the randomness of the parameters is strong, the prediction difficulty of the generated energy of the water turbine is increased, and the predicted generated energy accuracy is lower is solved.
The following is an embodiment of a prediction device for generating capacity of a through-flow turbine according to the embodiment of the present application, and please refer to fig. 4.
The prediction device of through-flow turbine generated energy that provides in this application embodiment includes:
a first obtaining unit 401, configured to obtain a prediction parameter for predicting through-flow turbine power generation, where the prediction parameter includes: the water inlet quantity H of a water storage device connected with the through-flow turbine, the water outlet quantity F of the water storage device, the turbine efficiency E1, the generator efficiency E2 and the gravity constant g;
the prediction unit 402 is configured to determine a plurality of first predicted power generation amounts of the through-flow turbine within a preset time according to the prediction parameters based on a first preset formula, where the first preset formula is: p ═ H × F × g ═ E1 × E2;
and a correcting unit 403, configured to repair each first predicted power generation amount according to an actual historical power generation amount curve of the cross flow turbine, to obtain a corresponding target predicted power generation amount.
Further, the correcting unit 403 specifically includes:
the supplement subunit is used for supplementing the missing value in the first predicted power generation amount according to the actual historical power generation amount curve of the tubular turbine;
the first correction subunit is used for correcting a first predicted power generation amount deviating from a preset distance of an actual historical power generation amount curve according to the actual historical power generation amount curve;
the first calculating subunit is used for carrying out root mean square calculation on the repaired or corrected first predicted power generation amount and the power generation amount data in the actual historical power generation amount curve to obtain a root mean square value;
and the second correction subunit is used for correcting the repaired or corrected first predicted power generation amount by using the root mean square value to obtain a corresponding target predicted power generation amount.
Further, still include:
a second obtaining unit 404, configured to obtain an actual power generation amount corresponding to a target predicted amount of the flow turbine;
and the fitting unit 405 is configured to perform linear fitting on the actual historical power generation amount curve after the actual power generation amount is added to the actual historical power generation amount curve, so as to obtain a new actual historical power generation amount curve.
Further, still include:
and the sending unit 406 is configured to send the target predicted power generation amount to the scheduling center, so that the scheduling center performs corresponding scheduling on the target predicted power generation amount.
Further, still include:
and a third obtaining subunit 407, configured to obtain an actual historical power generation curve of the through-flow turbine.
In this embodiment, first, a prediction parameter for predicting the power generation of the flow turbine is obtained, where the prediction parameter includes: the method comprises the following steps of determining the water inflow H of a water storage device connected with the through-flow turbine, the water outflow F of the water storage device, the turbine efficiency E1, the generator efficiency E2 and a gravity constant g, and then determining a plurality of first predicted generated energies of the through-flow turbine within preset time according to prediction parameters based on a first preset formula, wherein the first preset formula is as follows: and P is H, F, g, E1, E2, and finally, repairing each first predicted power generation amount according to an actual historical power generation amount curve of the through-flow turbine to obtain a corresponding target predicted power generation amount. In the whole process, when the generated energy is predicted, only 5 prediction parameters are obtained, and the efficiency E1 of the water turbine, the efficiency E2 of the generator and the gravity constant g are all quantitative, so that only two variable parameters are obtained in the whole process, the prediction difficulty caused by random and multiple parameters is reduced to a certain extent, and meanwhile, in order to ensure that when fewer prediction parameters are used, the predicted first predicted generated energy still has higher accuracy, the first predicted generated energy is corrected through an actual historical generated energy curve, so that the technical problem that when the generated energy of the conventional through-flow water turbine is predicted, the power generation prediction of the water turbine involves more parameters and the randomness of the parameters is strong, the prediction difficulty of the generated energy of the water turbine is increased, and the predicted generated energy accuracy is lower is solved.
It is clear to those skilled in the art that, for convenience and brevity of description, the specific working processes of the above-described systems, apparatuses and units may refer to the corresponding processes in the foregoing method embodiments, and are not described herein again.
In the several embodiments provided in the present application, it should be understood that the disclosed apparatus and method may be implemented in other ways. For example, the above-described apparatus embodiments are merely illustrative, and for example, the division of the units is only one logical division, and other divisions may be realized in practice, for example, a plurality of units or components may be combined or integrated into another system, or some features may be omitted, or not executed. In addition, the shown or discussed mutual coupling or direct coupling or communication connection may be an indirect coupling or communication connection through some interfaces, devices or units, and may be in an electrical, mechanical or other form.
The units described as separate parts may or may not be physically separate, and parts displayed as units may or may not be physical units, may be located in one place, or may be distributed on a plurality of network units. Some or all of the units can be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the solution of the embodiment.
In addition, functional units in the embodiments of the present application may be integrated into one processing unit, or each unit may exist alone physically, or two or more units are integrated into one unit. The integrated unit can be realized in a form of hardware, and can also be realized in a form of a software functional unit.
The integrated unit, if implemented in the form of a software functional unit and sold or used as a stand-alone product, may be stored in a computer readable storage medium. Based on such understanding, the technical solution of the present application may be substantially implemented or contributed to by the prior art, or all or part of the technical solution may be embodied in a software product, which is stored in a storage medium and includes instructions for causing a computer device (which may be a personal computer, a server, or a network device) to execute all or part of the steps of the method according to the embodiments of the present application. And the aforementioned storage medium includes: a U-disk, a removable hard disk, a Read-only Memory (ROM), a Random Access Memory (RAM), a magnetic disk or an optical disk, and other various media capable of storing program codes.
The above embodiments are only used for illustrating the technical solutions of the present application, and not for limiting the same; although the present application has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, it should be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that: the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments may still be modified, or some technical features may be equivalently replaced; and such modifications or substitutions do not depart from the spirit and scope of the corresponding technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application.
Claims (10)
1. A method for predicting the generating capacity of a through-flow turbine is characterized by comprising the following steps:
obtaining a prediction parameter for predicting the generation of the through-flow turbine, wherein the prediction parameter comprises: the water flow H of a water storage device connected with the through-flow turbine, the water outlet quantity F of the water storage device, the turbine efficiency E1, the generator efficiency E2 and the gravity constant g;
determining a plurality of first predicted generating capacities of the tubular turbine within a preset time according to the prediction parameters based on a first preset formula, wherein the first preset formula is as follows: p ═ H × F × g × E1 × E2, P being the first predicted power generation amount;
and repairing each first predicted power generation amount according to the actual historical power generation amount curve of the through-flow turbine to obtain the corresponding target predicted power generation amount.
2. The method for predicting through-flow turbine power generation according to claim 1, wherein the step of repairing each first predicted power generation according to an actual historical power generation curve of the through-flow turbine to obtain a corresponding target predicted power generation specifically comprises:
supplementing a missing value in the first predicted power generation amount according to an actual historical power generation amount curve of the through-flow turbine;
correcting the first predicted power generation amount deviating from the preset distance of the actual historical power generation amount curve according to the actual historical power generation amount curve;
performing root mean square calculation on the repaired or corrected first predicted power generation amount and the power generation amount data in the actual historical power generation amount curve to obtain a root mean square value;
and correcting the repaired or corrected first predicted power generation amount by using the root mean square value to obtain a corresponding target predicted power generation amount.
3. The method for predicting the generating capacity of a flow turbine of claim 1, wherein the step of repairing each first predicted generating capacity according to an actual historical generating capacity curve of the flow turbine to obtain a corresponding target predicted generating capacity further comprises the following steps:
acquiring actual generating capacity corresponding to the target prediction quantity of the through-flow turbine;
and after the actual power generation amount is added to the actual historical power generation amount curve, fitting the actual historical power generation amount curve to obtain a new actual historical power generation amount curve.
4. The method for predicting through-flow turbine power generation according to claim 1, wherein the step of repairing each first predicted power generation according to an actual historical power generation curve of the through-flow turbine to obtain a corresponding target predicted power generation further comprises the following steps:
and sending the target predicted power generation amount to a dispatching center, so that the dispatching center carries out corresponding dispatching on the target predicted power generation amount.
5. The method for predicting through-flow turbine power generation according to claim 1, wherein before repairing each first predicted power generation according to an actual historical power generation curve of the through-flow turbine and obtaining a corresponding target predicted power generation, the method further comprises:
and acquiring an actual historical generating capacity curve of the through-flow turbine.
6. A prediction device of a through-flow turbine generating capacity, comprising:
a first obtaining unit configured to obtain a prediction parameter for predicting a through-flow turbine power generation amount, wherein the prediction parameter includes: the water flow H of a water storage device connected with the through-flow turbine, the water outlet quantity F of the water storage device, the turbine efficiency E1, the generator efficiency E2 and the gravity constant g;
the prediction unit is used for determining a plurality of first predicted generating capacities of the tubular turbine within preset time according to the prediction parameters based on a first preset formula, wherein the first preset formula is as follows: p ═ H × F × g × E1 × E2, P being the first predicted power generation amount;
and the correcting unit is used for repairing each first predicted power generation amount according to the actual historical power generation amount curve of the tubular turbine to obtain the corresponding target predicted power generation amount.
7. The flow turbine power generation amount prediction device according to claim 6, wherein the correction means specifically includes:
the supplement subunit is used for supplementing the missing value in the first predicted power generation amount according to the actual historical power generation amount curve of the tubular turbine;
the first correction subunit is used for correcting the first predicted power generation amount deviating from the preset distance of the actual historical power generation amount curve according to the actual historical power generation amount curve;
the first calculating subunit is used for performing root mean square calculation on the first predicted power generation amount after being repaired or corrected and the power generation amount data in the actual historical power generation amount curve to obtain a root mean square value;
and the second correction subunit is used for correcting the repaired or corrected first predicted power generation amount by using the root mean square value to obtain a corresponding target predicted power generation amount.
8. The flow turbine power generation amount prediction device according to claim 6, further comprising:
the second acquisition unit is used for acquiring the actual power generation amount corresponding to the target prediction amount of the through-flow turbine;
and the fitting unit is used for performing linear fitting on the actual historical power generation curve after the actual power generation is added to the actual historical power generation curve to obtain a new actual historical power generation curve.
9. The flow turbine power generation amount prediction device according to claim 6, further comprising:
and the transmitting unit is used for transmitting the target predicted power generation amount to a dispatching center so that the dispatching center carries out corresponding dispatching on the target predicted power generation amount.
10. The flow turbine power generation amount prediction device according to claim 6, further comprising:
and the third acquisition subunit is used for acquiring an actual historical generating capacity curve of the through-flow turbine.
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| CN201911370691.3A CN111126708A (en) | 2019-12-26 | 2019-12-26 | Method and device for predicting generating capacity of through-flow turbine |
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