CN105279707B - A kind of random production analog method considering load and wind-powered electricity generation temporal characteristics - Google Patents
A kind of random production analog method considering load and wind-powered electricity generation temporal characteristics Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of random production analog methods considering load and wind-powered electricity generation temporal characteristics, it is characterized in that：The sequential intermittence and anti-tune peak, non-scheduling contributed for Wind turbines, and traditional Stochastic Production Simulation ignore the temporal characteristics of load more, propose four kinds of unit models according to the different operational mode of generating set and carry out Stochastic Production Simulation.The present invention can quickly, reasonably study wind-powered electricity generation temporal characteristics and generating set is in influence of the various operation factors to Stochastic Production Simulation under different operating statuses, so as to set up more comprehensive mathematical model, improve computational efficiency.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to electric system Stochastic Production Simulation fields, when specifically one kind considering load with wind-powered electricity generation
The random production analog method of sequence characteristic.
Background technology
Electric system Stochastic Production Simulation is the important method and tool of electricity generation system planning and running optimizatin.It is a kind of
By the condition of production for optimizing generating set, it is contemplated that the randomness of generating set and electric load, to calculate optimized operation
The algorithm of each generated energy from a power plant, the production cost of electric system and reliability index under mode, it is commonly applied to electricity
Force system power source planning, reliability assessment, Unit Combination and electricity market.The method master of electric system Stochastic Production Simulation at present
There are simulation and analytic method.Simulation model is simple, adaptable, but result of calculation has apparent statistical property, calculates effect
Rate is not high.Analytic method is to establish mathematical models of power system under certain simplification assumed condition, general with clearly physics
It reads, accurate mathematical model, computational efficiency is high, but the factor that conventional model considers is less, it is difficult to describe the various operations of unit
State.Therefore, the unit model of a variety of operation factors can be considered by establishing, and the influence for studying a variety of operation factors has important
Meaning.
Electric system Stochastic Production Simulation containing wind-powered electricity generation is most important to be to determine best band of the wind-powered electricity generation on load curve
Load position.Currently, mainly having to the processing mode of wind-powered electricity generation following two：Negative value load model and multimode machine supervising group model.It will
Wind turbines, which are equivalent to conventional multimode machine supervising group model, can show the probability of Wind turbines output, but due to time series
The loss of information, it is difficult to which accurate description wind-power electricity generation demodulates the influence of peak character；It is negative value load by wind-powered electricity generation processing, directly negative
It is subtracted on lotus, there is certain feasibility to small-scale wind-electricity integration.With the increase of wind-powered electricity generation scale, large-scale wind power integration is established
Model has great importance.
Invention content
The present invention is to provide one kind to avoid above-mentioned existing deficiencies in the technology and considering load and wind-powered electricity generation
The random production analog method of temporal characteristics is in not to can quickly, reasonably study wind-powered electricity generation temporal characteristics and generating set
With influence of the various operation factors to Stochastic Production Simulation under operating status, so as to set up more comprehensive mathematical model,
Improve computational efficiency.
The present invention adopts the following technical scheme that achieve the above object of the invention：
The present invention considers the random production analog method of load and wind-powered electricity generation temporal characteristics, is to be applied to electric system
In, its main feature is that carrying out as follows：
Step 1, generating set data, wind power resources data and the sequential load number for obtaining electric system in T research cycle
According to obtaining original temporal load curve by the sequential load data, and be denoted as Load1；
Step 2 establishes four kinds of unit models, including：Base lotus unit model, start and stop regulating units model, pressure load peak regulation
Unit model and two segmentation start and stop regulating units models；
Step 3, by the generating set data and sequential load data, tentatively correct the original temporal load curve
Load1 obtains preliminary amendment sequential load curve, is denoted as Load2；
Step 4 sets wind-powered electricity generation modified load number as n, and initializes n=1；
Step 5 is obtained the forced output of thermal power plant unit by the generating set data, according to the wind power resources data and confession
Heat engine group, which is forced, contributes, and corrects the preliminary amendment sequential load curve Load2, obtains n-th wind-powered electricity generation receiving amount WnAnd n-th
Sequential net load curve Load3n；
Step 6, by the n-th sequential net load curve Load3nIt is converted into n-th equivalent load duration curve, and is asked
It takes on the n-th equivalent load duration curve, load value is the initial build probability P at X0,n(X), initial build frequency F0,n
(X), initial quantity of electricity deficiency desired value EENS0,n(X) and initial maximum rate of rise
Step 7, the initial rotation spare capacity that the electric system is determined according to the operation demand of the electric systemWith initial climbing capability value
Step 8, always put into operation number I by generating set data acquisition；The unit number that puts into operation is set as i, and initializes i
=1；
Step 9, the constraints according to electric system judge whether to need to repair again using minimum cost of electricity-generating as target
Positive wind-powered electricity generation, if desired, n+1 is then assigned to n, and return to step 5 executes, if not needing, it is determined that the generator that ith puts into operation
Group number；
The situation of step 10, the generating set type and tape base lotus that are put into operation according to the ith, determines what ith put into operation
Unit model belonging to generating set；
As i=1, by the initial build probability P0,n(X) and the initial build frequency F0,n(X) ith is obtained to throw
The electric system needs the rate of transform that unit puts into operation when transporting generating setWith the rate of transform for not needing unit and putting into operation
As i ≠ 1, by the cumulative probability P after (i-1)-th generating set that puts into operationi-1,n(X) and (i-1)-th cumulative frequency
Fi-1,n(X) obtain ith put into operation generating set when the electric system rate of transform that needs unit to put into operationWith do not need machine
The rate of transform that group puts into operation
Step 11, the generator group number to be put into operation according to the ith, correct obtain ith put into operation it is described after generating set
The spinning reserve capacity of electric systemWith climbing capacity
Step 12 converts the unit model belonging to generating set that the ith puts into operation to equivalent two states unit mould
Type or equivalent three-state machine group model；
The equivalent two states unit model or equivalent three-state machine group model are carried out Stochastic Production Simulation by step 13,
Ith is obtained to put into operation the cumulative probability P after generating seti,n(X), cumulative frequency Fi,n(X), expected loss of energy EENSi,n
(X) and maximum growth rate
Step 14, accumulative ith put into operation the capacity that always puts into operation after generator, and judge whether i < I are true；If so, then
I+1 is assigned to i；And return to step 9；Otherwise, it indicates to complete Stochastic Production Simulation.
The present invention considers the characteristics of random production analog method of load and wind-powered electricity generation temporal characteristics and lies also in：
Generating set described in step 1 includes thermoelectricity generating set, hydroelectricity generator group and nuclear power generator group；The hair
Motor group data include the type of unit, number of units, capacity, output bound, mean free error time MTTF, mean repair time
MTTR and consumption tiny increment；The wind power resources data include Wind turbines output and its corresponding period；The sequential is negative
Lotus data are to be sequentially arranged by hour load.
It is according to the different operating statuses of unit, the situation of tape base lotus during Stochastic Production Simulation and to divide in step 2
Section unit capacity establishes four kinds of unit models；
The base lotus unit model：It indicates one and continuous operation unit is not segmented in basic load operation with rated capacity；
The start and stop regulating units model：Indicate one done more than base lotus with rated capacity peaking operation regardless of intersegmental
It has a rest operating unit；
The pressure load regulating units model：Indicate that one first segmentation is contributed with minimum technology in basic load operation, second
The zonal cooling operating unit of peaking operation is done in segmentation more than base lotus；
The two segmentations start and stop regulating units model：Indicate that one two are segmented point that peaking operation is done more than base lotus
Intersegmental operating unit of having a rest.
The receiving amount of n-th wind-powered electricity generation described in step 5 WnIt obtains as follows：
Step a, variable t is set, and initializes t=1；Loads of the sequential load curve Load2 in t moment will tentatively be corrected
Value is denoted as Load2t；
Step b, judge whether n=1 is true, if so, then go to step c；Otherwise, d is gone to step；
Step c, judge whether t moment meets：Load2t-, which is forced, to contribute>=Wind turbines generated energy；
If satisfied, then enabling wind-powered electricity generation receiving amount=Wind turbines generated energy of t moment；Otherwise, enable t moment wind-powered electricity generation receiving amount=
Load2t-, which is forced, to contribute；Go to step f；
Step d, it is to abandon wind ratio with λ；Judge whether t moment meets：Load2t- (forces output+λ × wind-powered electricity generation installation to hold
Amount × n)>=Wind turbines generated energy；
If satisfied, then enabling t moment wind-powered electricity generation receiving amount=Wind turbines generated energy；Otherwise, e is gone to step；
Step e, judge Load2t- (forcing output+λ × installed capacity of wind-driven power × n)>Whether 0 is true, if so, then enable t
Moment wind-powered electricity generation receiving amount=Load2t- (forces output+λ × installed capacity of wind-driven power × n)；Otherwise, enable t moment wind-powered electricity generation receiving amount=
Wind turbines generated energy；
Step f, judge whether t=T is true, if so, it then indicates to obtain n-th wind-powered electricity generation receiving amount Wn；Otherwise, by t+1
It is assigned to t, and return to step b.
It is to judge whether to need to correct wind-powered electricity generation again as follows in step 9：
Step (1) judges that i > 1 and the ith capacity that always puts into operation after generator that puts into operation are more than the maximum of the electric system
Whether load is true, if so, it then selects the unit of consumption tiny increment minimum or machine set of segmentation to put into operation, and goes to step (7)；
Otherwise, it goes to step (2)；
Whether step (2) judges to also have in all units not put into operation and forces output unit or machine set of segmentation, if so, then
The forced output unit or machine set of segmentation for choosing consumption tiny increment minimum put into operation, and go to step (7)；Otherwise, it goes to step
(3)；
Step (3) judges whether the spinning reserve constraint for meeting the electric system and Climing constant condition, if satisfied,
It then goes to step (5)；Otherwise, it goes to step (4)；
Step (4) judges the first segmentation with the presence or absence of segmentation unit in all units not put into operation, and if it exists, then selects
The first segmentation for taking consumption tiny increment minimum puts into operation, and goes to step (7)；Otherwise, it indicates to need to correct wind-powered electricity generation again；
Step (5), the unit or machine set of segmentation for searching consumption tiny increment minimum in all units not put into operation, judge the machine
Whether group or machine set of segmentation are the second segmentation for being segmented unit；If so, going to step (6)；Otherwise, it goes to step (7)；
Step (6) carries out pre-corrected to the spinning reserve capacity and climbing capacity of the electric system, and judges whether full
Spinning reserve constraint after sufficient pre-corrected and Climing constant condition if satisfied, then putting into the second segmentation of segmentation unit, and turn step
Suddenly (7)；Otherwise, then it is gone to step (5) in the case where it is the second segmentation for being segmented unit to exclude minimum specific consumption unit；
Step (7), expression need not correct wind-powered electricity generation again.
The constraints of electric system described in step 9 includes that the spinning reserve as shown in formula (1) and formula (2) is constrained and climbed
Slope constraint：
In formula (1) and formula (2)：Indicate that the ith spinning reserve of the electric system after generating set that puts into operation holds
Amount；SPR0For the spinning reserve capacity demand of system；Indicate that ith puts into operation the electric system after generating set
Increase lotus capacity；t0For the time for requiring spinning reserve capacity to put into；For accident spinning reserve capacity demand；It is negative
Lotus increases spinning reserve capacity demand；XiGenerating set the putting into operation a little on equivalent load duration curve put into operation for ith；The generating set that expression ith puts into operation is in the point X that puts into operationiMost increase lotus rate at place；Δ t indicates the climbing time.
It is described to need the rate of transform that unit puts into operation in step 10With the rate of transform for not needing unit and putting into operationBy utilization
Formula (3) and formula (4) are calculated：
In formula (3) and formula (4)：Fi-1,n(Xi) indicate (i-1)-th generating set afterload value X=X that puts into operationiThe accumulation at place is general
Rate；Pi-1,n(Xi) indicate (i-1)-th generating set afterload value X=X that puts into operationiThe cumulative frequency at place.
In step 11, the spinning reserve capacity is corrected by following situationWith climbing capacity
If (a) generating set that ith puts into operation is the first segmentation for being segmented unit, capacity Cd i, then formula (5) is utilized
It is modified with formula (6)：
If (b) generating set that ith puts into operation is the second segmentation for being segmented unit, capacity Xd i, then formula (7) is utilized
It is modified with formula (8)：
If (c) generating set that ith puts into operation is not to be segmented unit, it is modified using formula (9) and formula (10)：
In formula (5)-formula (10), Ce iIndicate the rated capacity for the generating set that ith puts into operation；It indicates (i-1)-th time
The spinning reserve capacity for the electric system after generating set of putting into operation；System after (i-1)-th generating set that puts into operation of expression
Climbing capacity.
Cumulative probability P described in step 13i,n(X), cumulative frequency Fi,n(X), expected loss of energy EENSi,n(X) and
Maximum growth rateIt is to be obtained by following situation：
If 1) generating set that ith puts into operation be not segmented unit or be segmented unit first segmentation, using formula (12),
Formula (13) and formula (14) obtain cumulative probability Pi,n(X), cumulative frequency Fi,n(X) and expected loss of energy EENSi,n(X)：
Pi,n(X)=Pi-1,n(X)·(1-FORi)+Pi-1,n(X-Ci)·FORi (12)
Fi,n(X)=Fi-1,n(X)·(1-FORi)+Fi-1,n(X-Ci)·FORi+ue i·FORi·[Pi-1,n(X-Ci)-Pi-1,n
(X)] (13)
EENSi,n(X)=EENSi-1,n(X)·(1-FORi)+EENSi-1,n(X-Ci)·FORi (14)
In formula (12), formula (13) and formula (14)：X indicates the load value on the equivalent load duration curve；Pi,n(X)、
Fi,n(X) and EENSi,n(X) indicate that load value is that the accumulation at X is general on equivalent load duration curve after ith unit puts into operation respectively
Rate, cumulative frequency and expected loss of energy；Pi-1,n(X)、Fi-1,n(X) and EENSi-1,n(X) indicate that (i-1)-th unit is thrown respectively
Load value is cumulative probability, cumulative frequency and the expected loss of energy at X on equivalent load duration curve after fortune；FORiIt indicates
The probability that the equivalent two states unit output for the generating set that ith puts into operation is zero；ue iIndicate the equivalent two states unit
Equivalent repair rate；CiThe capacity for indicating the generating set or machine set of segmentation that ith puts into operation, if the generating set that ith puts into operation is
It is not segmented unit, then Ci=Ce iIf the generating set that ith puts into operation is the first segmentation for being segmented unit, Ci=Cd i。
If the generating set that ith puts into operation is the second segmentation for being segmented unit, formula (15), formula (16) and formula (17) are utilized
De-convolution operation is carried out, the cumulative probability P after de-convolution operation is obtained1 i(X), cumulative frequency F1 i(X) and expected loss of energy
EENS1 i(X)：Recycling formula (18), formula (19) and formula (20) obtain cumulative probability Pi,n(X), cumulative frequency Fi,n(X) and electricity
Insufficient desired value EENSi,n(X)：
P1 i(X)=[Pi-1,n(X)-P1 i(X-Cd i)·FORi]/(1-FORi) (15)
F1 i(X)=[Fi-1.n(X)-F1 i(X-Cd i)·FORi-ue i·FORi·(P1 i(X-Cd i)-P1 i(X))]/(1-
FORi) (16)
EENS1 i(X)=[EENSi-1,n(X)-EENS1 i(X-Cd i)]/(1-FORi) (17)
Pi,n(X)=P1 i(X)·AVi+P1 i(X-Xd i)·DFORi+P1 i(X-Ce i)·FORi (18)
Fi,n(X)=F1 i(X)·AVi+F1 i(X-Xd i)·DFORi+F1 i(X-Ce i)·FORi+AVi·λT i·[P1 i(X-
Ce i)-P1 i(X)]+AVi·ρ- i,n·[P1 i(X-Xd i)-P1 i(X)]+DFORi·λD i·[P1 i(X-Ce i)-P1 i(X-Xd i)]
(19)
EENSi,n(X)=EENS1 i(X)·AVi+EENS1 i(X-Xd i)·DFORi+EENS1 i(X-Ce i)·FORi (20)
In formula (15)-formula (20)：AVi, DFORi, FORiIndicate respectively the equivalent three condition unit nominal output probability,
Derated output probability and zero output probability；λT iAnd λD iRated condition and drop volume shape in the equivalent three condition unit are indicated respectively
The forced outage rate of state, P1 i(X), F1 i(X), EENS1 i(X) indicating respectively will be after one section of deconvolution on equivalent load duration curve
Load value is cumulative probability, cumulative frequency and the expected loss of energy at X.
Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the beneficial effect that：
1, the present invention is by establishing a kind of random production analog method considering load and wind-powered electricity generation temporal characteristics, fully
It considers the temporal characteristics of wind-powered electricity generation and unit is in influence of the various operation factors to Stochastic Production Simulation under different operating statuses,
It is a kind of method of efficient, comprehensive electric system Stochastic Production Simulation.It is different from traditional Stochastic Production Simulation unit model, this
Invention changes according to put into operation machine set type and on-load location determination unit model, same unit model because of on-load position difference
Become, effectively reflects the operating condition of all units；In addition, the present invention can effectively consider system reserve and Climing constant, and
The limitation of unit minimum startup-shutdown, the influence for starting the factors such as failure and climbing time-constrain, improve calculating speed, have important
Engineering application value.
2, the present invention uses sequential load curve, and extracts the relevant information of sequential load, can effectively reflect load sequential
Change the influence to entire Stochastic Production Simulation process.
3, the present invention is according to the different operating statuses of unit during Stochastic Production Simulation (such as drop volume, interval, continuous), band
Load position (whether tape base lotus) and segmentation unit, establish four kinds of multimode machine supervising group models, it is contemplated that unit starting mortality,
Minimum startup-shutdown time restriction and creep speed limitation, have fully considered the influence of unit self structure and various operation factors,
Improve the reasonability of analytic method mathematical model.
4, emphasis of the present invention considers the probability of forced outage occur in the unit generation period, needs unit commitment using system
In the case of the condition forced outage rate CFOR of unit failure carry out convolution algorithm, conditional forced outage rate CFOR not only with
Put into operation unit stoppage in transit characteristic it is related, it is also related with LOAD FREQUENCY transfer characteristic, therefore dynamic design conditions forced outage rate
CFOR can be effectively removed and not needed influence of the failure to convolutional calculation when unit puts into operation in system.
5, the present invention considers emphatically the anti-tune peak and non-scheduling of wind-powered electricity generation, it is proposed that paddy lotus when large-scale wind power integration
The method that ratio abandons wind has been sufficiently reserved the temporal characteristics of wind power output.
6, the present invention provides the spinning reserves of system and Climing constant condition, and in unit or the machine set of segmentation of putting into operation every time
After verified, ensure that spinning reserve and Climing constant can meet constantly, improve the reliability of system.
7, the present invention converts four kinds of multimode machine supervising group models to equivalent two states unit model and equivalent three condition unit
Model simplifies the convolution algorithm of unit model, improves computational efficiency.
Description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the random production analog method modeling procedure figure that load and wind-powered electricity generation temporal characteristics are considered in the present invention；
Fig. 2 is two state unit model (model 1) state space graphs of base lotus unit in the present invention；
Fig. 3 is five state unit model (model 2) state space graphs of start and stop regulating units model in the present invention；
Fig. 4 is four state unit model (model 3) state space graphs that load regulating units model is pressed in the present invention；
Fig. 5 is two segmentation start and stop regulating units models, seven state unit model (model 4) state space graph in the present invention；
Fig. 6 is storage capacity formula water power peak clipping gradually cutting load method schematic diagram in the present invention；
Fig. 7 is equivalent load duration curve figure in the present invention；
Fig. 8 is that wind-powered electricity generation paddy lotus abandons wind schematic diagram in the present invention；
Fig. 9 is equivalent two states unit model state space graph in the present invention；
Figure 10 is equivalent three-state machine group model state space graph in the present invention.
Specific implementation mode
As shown in Figure 1, in the present embodiment, load is considered with the random production analog method of wind-powered electricity generation temporal characteristics by such as
Lower step carries out：
Step 1, generating set data, wind power resources data and the sequential load number for obtaining electric system in T research cycle
According to obtaining original temporal load curve by sequential load data, and be denoted as Load1；
Generating set in step 1 includes thermoelectricity generating set, hydroelectricity generator group and nuclear power generator group；Generating set
Data include the type (segmentation situation) of unit, number of units, capacity, output bound, mean free error time MTTF, averagely repair
Time MTTR and consumption tiny increment；Wind power resources data include Wind turbines output and its corresponding period；Sequential load number
According to be sequentially arranged by hour load.Need guarantor unit unified (such as when all numerical computations containing temporal information
It can unify as unit of hour).
Step 2 establishes four kinds of unit models, including：Base lotus unit model, start and stop regulating units model, pressure load peak regulation
Unit model and two segmentation start and stop regulating units models；
Step 2 is according to the different operating statuses of unit during Stochastic Production Simulation (such as drop volume, interval, continuous), band
The situation (whether tape base lotus) and segmentation unit capacity of base lotus (go out assuming that segmentation unit first is segmented capacity equal to drop volume state
Power) establish four kinds of unit models；
Base lotus unit model (two state models) is as shown in Figure 2：Indicate one with rated capacity basic load operation regardless of
Section continuous operation unit；The model that its stoppage in transit probability is simulated with traditional mode of production is no different, and directly can use forced outage rate FOR (i.e.
Unit nought state probability) it calculates.
Start and stop regulating units model (five state models) is as shown in Figure 3：One is indicated to do more than base lotus with rated capacity
The not sectional intermittent operating unit of peaking operation；Equivalent two states unit model need to be converted into be calculated.
Press load regulating units model (four state models) as shown in Figure 4：Indicate that one first segmentation is gone out with minimum technology
Power does the zonal cooling operating unit of peaking operation in basic load operation, the second segmentation more than base lotus；Unit is needed to throw in system
In the case of fortune, equivalent three-state machine group model need to be converted into and calculated.
Two segmentation start and stop regulating units models (seven state models) are as shown in Figure 5：Indicate two segmentations in base lotus
The sectional intermittent operating unit of peaking operation is done above.Equivalent three-state machine group model need to be equally converted into be calculated.
Step 3, by generating set data and sequential load data, it is preliminary to correct original temporal load curve Load1, obtain
It is preliminary to correct sequential load curve, it is denoted as Load2；
Preliminary amendment original temporal load curve Load1 in step 3 is mainly：It is negative by hour with time sequencing arrangement
Lotus data are first undertaken the nuclear power and runoff water power of base lotus by negative load model processing；For the smaller system of water power proportion, then
By gradually cutting load method, arranges storage capacity formula water power to carry out peak clipping, reduce the peak-valley difference of load curve；If water power proportion compared with
Greatly, then storage capacity formula Hydropower Unit on load curve is sought into best operational position and carries out convolution algorithm.
Gradually cutting load method：Peak load is obtained according to daily load curve；With peak load subtract the unit it is maximum allowable go out
Power is to make the unit virgin work position；If as shown in fig. 6, for the unit dash area area be more than given value,
Then raise operating position；It is on the contrary then reduce operating position.It allows load more than operating position all by the unit band, and will be greater than this
The maximum allowable output for contributing the period of unit takes its maximum allowable power generating value.
As shown in fig. 6, the step-length for raising or reducing operating position takes Δ x=(E-Eg)/T, T be simulated time length, one
As take for 24 hours, as | E-EgMeet iteration requirement when |≤ε, ε is the precision of setting.
Step 4 sets wind-powered electricity generation modified load number as n, and initializes n=1；It is abandoned if wind-powered electricity generation need not carry out multiple paddy lotus
Wind, then n=1 will not change；If wind-powered electricity generation need to carry out multiple paddy lotus and abandon wind, often carries out a paddy lotus and abandon wind, the value of n will increase
1, but since the number for repeatedly abandoning wind can not determine in advance, therefore the maximum value of n can not also know in advance, only complete entire random
It just can determine that (as long as it should be noted that wind-powered electricity generation times of revision changes, all units needs are rearranged after production process
It puts into operation, therefore unit parameter and system constraints parameter are the value after n-th wind-powered electricity generation modified load).
Step 5 is obtained the forced output of thermal power plant unit by generating set data, strong according to wind power resources data and thermal power plant unit
Compel contribute (the sum of i.e. all unit minimum technologies outputs), corrects and tentatively correct sequential load curve Load2, obtain n-th wind
Electric receiving amount WnWith n-th sequential net load curve Load3n；
N-th wind-powered electricity generation receiving amount W in step 5nIt obtains as follows：
Step a, variable t is set, and initializes t=1；Loads of the sequential load curve Load2 in t moment will tentatively be corrected
Value is denoted as Load2t；
Step b, judge whether n=1 is true, if so, then go to step c；Otherwise, d is gone to step；
Step c, judge whether t moment meets：Load2t-, which is forced, to contribute>=Wind turbines generated energy；
If satisfied, then enabling wind-powered electricity generation receiving amount=Wind turbines generated energy of t moment；Otherwise, enable t moment wind-powered electricity generation receiving amount=
Load2t-, which is forced, to contribute；Go to step f；
Step d, it is to abandon wind ratio with λ；Judge whether t moment meets：Load2t- (forces output+λ × wind-powered electricity generation installation to hold
Amount × n)>=Wind turbines generated energy；
If satisfied, then enabling t moment wind-powered electricity generation receiving amount=Wind turbines generated energy；Otherwise, e is gone to step；
Step e, judge Load2t- (forcing output+λ × installed capacity of wind-driven power × n)>Whether 0 is true, if so, then enable t
Moment wind-powered electricity generation receiving amount=Load2t- (forces output+λ × installed capacity of wind-driven power × n)；Otherwise, enable t moment wind-powered electricity generation receiving amount=
Wind turbines generated energy；
Step f, judge whether t=T is true, if so, it then indicates to obtain n-th wind-powered electricity generation receiving amount Wn；Otherwise, by t+1
It is assigned to t, and return to step b.
By taking T=24 as an example, as shown in fig. 7, as n=1, wind is abandoned by initial paddy lotus, can get initially abandoning in cycle T
Air quantity and initial wind-powered electricity generation receive receiving amount W1；As n > 1, wind is abandoned until meeting constraints by multiple paddy lotus, can finally be obtained
It obtains in cycle T and abandons air quantity and wind-powered electricity generation receiving receiving amount Wn；
Step 6, by n-th sequential net load curve Load3nIt is converted into n-th equivalent load duration curve, and seeks
On n times equivalent load duration curve, load value is the initial build probability P at X0,n(X), initial build frequency F0,n(X), initial
Expected loss of energy EENS0,n(X) and initial maximum rate of rise
Load value in step 6 is the initial build probability P at X0,n(X), initial build frequency F0,n(X), initial quantity of electricity
Insufficient desired value EENS0,n(X) and initial maximum rate of riseIt is to seek as follows：
Such as Fig. 8, the continuous data for 24 hours since 12 points of high noon one day are taken：
Initial build probability P0,n(X), cumulative frequency F0,n(X) and load maximum growth rateCalculating formula such as
Under：
In formula (1)-formula (3)：Pt(X), Ft(X) andIt is the cumulative probability at X, cumulative frequency for each moment load value
And rate of rise, calculating formula are as follows：
In formula (4)-formula (6)：xt, xt+1For the load value at t and t+1 moment.
Initial quantity of electricity deficiency desired value EENS0,n(X) it is hatched area in Fig. 8；Load value X represents one in the present invention
Serial load point, for value since 0 until ((peak load+unit total capacity)/Δ X+1) Δ X, step-length is Δ X (general
Take unit capacity greatest common divisor).
Step 7, the initial rotation that (after n-th wind-powered electricity generation modified load) electric system is determined according to the operation demand of electric system
Turn spare capacityWith initial climbing capability valueAnd climbing capacity requirement, emergency reserve capacity demand and negative
Lotus increases spare capacity needs；
Step 8, always put into operation number I by the acquisition of generating set data；The unit number that puts into operation is set as i, and initializes i=1；
The number I=segmentation units number of units × 2+ that always puts into operation in step 8 is not segmented unit number of units.
Step 9, the constraints according to electric system judge whether to need to repair again using minimum cost of electricity-generating as target
Positive wind-powered electricity generation, if desired, n+1 is then assigned to n, and return to step 5 executes, if not needing, it is determined that the generator that ith puts into operation
Group number；
Step 9 is to judge whether to need to correct wind-powered electricity generation again as follows：
Step (1) judges that i > 1 and the ith capacity that always puts into operation after generator that puts into operation are more than the peak load of electric system
It is whether true, if so, it then selects the unit of consumption tiny increment minimum or machine set of segmentation to put into operation, and goes to step (7)；It is no
Then, it goes to step (2)；
Whether step (2) judges to also have in all units not put into operation and forces output unit or machine set of segmentation, if so, then
The forced output unit or machine set of segmentation for choosing consumption tiny increment minimum put into operation, and go to step (7)；Otherwise, it goes to step
(3)；
Step (3) judges whether the spinning reserve constraint for meeting electric system and Climing constant condition, if satisfied, then turning
Step (5)；Otherwise, it goes to step (4)；
Step (4) judges the first segmentation with the presence or absence of segmentation unit in all units not put into operation, and if it exists, then selects
The first segmentation for taking consumption tiny increment minimum puts into operation, and goes to step (7)；Otherwise, it indicates to need to correct wind-powered electricity generation again；
Step (5), the unit or machine set of segmentation for searching consumption tiny increment minimum in all units not put into operation, judge the machine
Whether group or machine set of segmentation are the second segmentation for being segmented unit；If so, going to step (6)；Otherwise, it goes to step (7)；
Step (6) carries out pre-corrected to the spinning reserve capacity and climbing capacity of electric system, and judges whether to meet pre-
Revised spinning reserve constraint and Climing constant condition if satisfied, then putting into the second segmentation of segmentation unit, and are gone to step
(7)；Otherwise, then it is gone to step (5) in the case where it is the second segmentation for being segmented unit to exclude minimum specific consumption unit；
Step (7), expression need not correct wind-powered electricity generation again.
The constraints of electric system includes the spinning reserve constraint as shown in formula (7) and formula (8) and climbs about in step 9
Beam：
In formula (7) and formula (8)：Indicate that (after n-th wind-powered electricity generation modified load) ith puts into operation electric power after generating set
The spinning reserve capacity of system, when conventional power unit does not all put into operation, value is the cold standby unit capacity that can quickly put into operation；SPR0
For the spinning reserve capacity demand of system, a usually given value；Indicate (after n-th wind-powered electricity generation modified load) i-th
The increasing lotus capacity of electric system after the secondary generating set that puts into operation, if input is not segmented unit, increasing lotus capacity is constant, such as puts into section machine
Group then needs to be modified to increasing lotus capacity；t0For the time for requiring spinning reserve capacity to put into；For accident spinning reserve
The accident spinning reserve capacity of its setting of capacity requirement, i.e. system requirementsIn t0It is all arrived at (if taking t in hour0=
0.2h requires system in 12min to be capable of providing required spinning reserve capacity value)；For load growth spinning reserve capacity
The average increasing lotus rate of demand, the spare needs of load isThe whole climbing for representing system is held on the right of formula (8) inequality
Amount demand, due toIt can be seen that its value is a variable；XiThe generating set to put into operation for ith is equivalent lasting
Putting into operation a little on load curve；Indicate that the generating set that (after n-th wind-powered electricity generation modified load) ith puts into operation is putting into operation
Point XiMost increase lotus rate at place；Δ t indicates to consider the climbing time of ramping rate constraints, to can use Δ t=0.25h (i.e. 15min).
In addition to considering the constraint of system spinning reserve and Climing constant condition, it is also contemplated that the capacity that always puts into operation is closed with peak load
System, the random fault of unit, unit starting probability of failure PS, unit minimum startup-shutdown time restriction and unit creep speed limit
TR processed (by taking start and stop regulating units model as an example, i.e., the climbing time needed for from zero output state to quota output state).
The situation of step 10, the generating set type and tape base lotus that are put into operation according to ith, determines the power generation that ith puts into operation
Unit model belonging to unit；
As i=1, by initial build probability P0,n(X) and initial build frequency F0,n(X) (n-th wind-powered electricity generation amendment is negative for acquisition
After lotus) ith put into operation generating set when the electric system rate of transform that needs unit to put into operationWith the transfer for not needing unit and putting into operation
Rate
As i ≠ 1, by the cumulative probability P after (i-1)-th generating set that puts into operationi-1,n(X) and (i-1)-th cumulative frequency
Fi-1,n(X) obtain (after n-th wind-powered electricity generation modified load) ith put into operation generating set when the electric system transfer that needs unit to put into operation
RateWith the rate of transform for not needing unit and putting into operation
The rate of transform that unit puts into operation is needed in step 10With the rate of transform for not needing unit and putting into operationBy utilizing formula
(9) it is calculated with formula (10)：
In formula (9) and formula (10)：Fi-1,n(Xi) indicate (after n-th wind-powered electricity generation modified load) (i-1)-th generating set that puts into operation
Afterload value X=XiThe cumulative probability at place；Pi-1,n(Xi) indicate (after n-th wind-powered electricity generation modified load) (i-1)-th generator that puts into operation
Group afterload value X=XiThe cumulative frequency at place.
Set generating set minimum continuous operating timeWith minimum economic downtimeAssuming that the stoppage in transit of whole system
Duration and uptime obey electric system and need the rate of transform that unit puts into operationIt (also known as " demand factor ") and is not required to
Want the rate of transform that unit puts into operationThe exponential distribution of (also known as " not demand factor "), therefore：
In formula (11) and formula (12)：pu iWhen being that the run time for the generating set that ith puts into operation is more than minimum continuous operation
BetweenProbability；pd iBe the generating set that ith puts into operation idle time be more than minimum economic downtimeProbability.
The startup-shutdown restriction of unit：It need to be by the demand in start and stop regulating units and two segmentation start and stop regulating units models
RateNot demandIt is modified as the following formula：
Revised demand factor at this timeNot demandIt makes a discount on the basis of original, the unit mould of gained
Type is state space graph of unit during entire Stochastic Production Simulation after considering the limitation of unit minimum startup-shutdown, each section
Probability is unit positioned shape probability of state in entirely production simulation process；Revised demand factorIt then indicates to add
After entering startup-shutdown time restriction, actual transfer rate to climbing state of the unit from stand-by state.
Step 11, the generator group number to be put into operation according to ith are corrected and obtain the throwing of (after n-th wind-powered electricity generation modified load) ith
The spinning reserve capacity of electric system after fortune generating setWith climbing capacity
It is to correct spinning reserve capacity by following situation in step 11With climbing capacity
If (a) generating set that ith puts into operation is the first segmentation for being segmented unit, capacity Cd i, 1 section of unit at this time
It puts into operation, the 2nd segmentation is in spinning reserve state, spare capacity incrementss, and climbing capacity also increases, and increased climbing capacity is most
For 2 sections of capacity, then formula (15) and formula (16) is utilized to be modified：
If (b) generating set that ith puts into operation is the second segmentation for being segmented unit, capacity Xd i, 2 sections are exited rotation
Stand-by state, spare capacity are reduced, and climbing capacity is also reduced therewith, and the climbing capacity of reduction is up to 2 sections of capacity, then utilizes formula
(17) it is modified with formula (18)：
If (c) generating set that ith puts into operation is not to be segmented unit, unit puts into operation spare capacity and climbing to system
Capacity does not influence, then utilizes formula (19) and formula (20) to be modified：
In formula (15)-formula (20), Ce iIndicate the rated capacity for the generating set that ith puts into operation；Indicate (n-th
After wind-powered electricity generation modified load) spinning reserve capacity of electric system after (i-1)-th generating set that puts into operation；Indicate (n-th
After secondary wind-powered electricity generation modified load) the climbing capacity of system after (i-1)-th generating set that puts into operation.
Step 12 converts the unit model belonging to generating set that ith puts into operation to equivalent two states unit model, such as
Shown in Fig. 9 or equivalent three-state machine group model, as shown in Figure 10；
Base lotus unit model and start and stop regulating units model need to be converted into equivalent two states unit model, press load peak regulation machine
Group model and two segmentation start and stop regulating units models need to be converted into equivalent three-state machine group model；Its equivalent two states unit model
Or the state probability calculating of equivalent three-state machine group model is as follows：
1) base lotus unit model (two state models) can directly use forced outage rate FOR (i.e. unit nought state probability) to count
It calculates.I.e.：
CFOR=FOR (21)
2) start and stop regulating units model (five state models) need to be converted into equivalent two states unit model and be calculated.It stops transport
Probability is calculated using condition forced outage rate CFOR, and CFOR refers generally to the general of unit failure in the case that system needs unit to put into operation
Rate；It should be noted that Fig. 3 considers climbing time-constrain, machine in the case that CFOR expressions system needs unit to put into operation at this time
The probability that output is zero is organized, climbing state is the rigid starting state of unit in figure, and output is zero.Therefore:
In formula (22)：P3, P4, P5 indicate in figure state 3,4,5 probability in unit model respectively.
3) pressure load regulating units model (four state models) need to be converted into the case where system needs unit to put into operation
Effect three-state machine group model is calculated.Three states of equivalent three condition are respectively：Unit nominal output state probability AV, machine
Group derated output state probability DFOR and unit nought state probability FOR, corresponding calculating formula are as follows：
In formula (23)：P1, P2, P3, P4 indicate in figure state 1,2,3,4 probability in unit model respectively.
4) two segmentation start and stop regulating units models (seven state models) are equally equivalent to three condition unit and are calculated；Fig. 4
1 section of middle climbing is rigid Startup time, and output is approximately zero, and 3 sections of climbing is contributed approximate just to increase the moment of contributing since drop volume
For derated output, equivalent three condition state probability calculates as follows：
In formula (24)：P3, P4, P5, P6, P7 indicate in figure state 3,4,5,6,7 probability in unit model respectively.
Equivalent two states unit model or equivalent three-state machine group model are carried out Stochastic Production Simulation by step 13, are obtained
(after n-th wind-powered electricity generation modified load) ith puts into operation the cumulative probability P after generating seti,n(X), cumulative frequency Fi,n(X), electricity
Insufficient desired value EENSi,n(X) and maximum growth rateAnd calculate the power generation for obtaining the generating set that ith puts into operation
Amount, the hot and cold number of starts of cost of electricity-generating and unit；
Cumulative probability P in step 13i,n(X), cumulative frequency Fi,n(X), expected loss of energy EENSi,n(X) and it is maximum
Rate of riseIt is to be obtained by following situation：
If 1) generating set that ith puts into operation be not segmented unit or be segmented unit first segmentation, using formula (26),
Formula (27) and formula (28) obtain cumulative probability Pi,n(X), cumulative frequency Fi,n(X) and expected loss of energy EENSi,n(X)：
Pi,n(X)=Pi-1,n(X)·(1-FORi)+Pi-1,n(X-Ci)·FORi (26)
Fi,n(X)=Fi-1,n(X)·(1-FORi)+Fi-1,n(X-Ci)·FORi+ue i·FORi·[Pi-1,n(X-Ci)-Pi-1,n
(X)] (27)
EENSi,n(X)=EENSi-1,n(X)·(1-FORi)+EENSi-1,n(X-Ci)·FORi (28)
In formula (26), formula (27) and formula (28)：X indicates the load value on equivalent load duration curve, (is generally taken with Δ X
The greatest common divisor of all generating set capacities) it is interval, X=0, Δ X, 2 Δ X ... (peak load+Pi(X)/ΔX+1)·
ΔX；Pi,n(X)、Fi,n(X) and EENSi,n(X) indicate that (after n-th wind-powered electricity generation modified load) ith unit is equivalent after putting into operation respectively
Load value is cumulative probability, cumulative frequency and the expected loss of energy at X on lasting load curve；Pi-1,n(X)、Fi-1,n(X)
And EENSi-1,n(X) after expression (after n-th wind-powered electricity generation modified load) (i-1)-th unit puts into operation respectively on equivalent load duration curve
Load value is cumulative probability, cumulative frequency and the expected loss of energy at X；FORiIndicate the generating set that ith puts into operation
The probability that equivalent two states unit output is zero；ue iIndicate the equivalent repair rate of equivalent two states unit；CiIndicate that ith puts into operation
Generating set or machine set of segmentation capacity, if the generating set that puts into operation of ith is not to be segmented unit, Ci=Ce iIf ith
The generating set to put into operation is the first segmentation for being segmented unit, then Ci=Cd i。
If the generating set that ith puts into operation is the second segmentation for being segmented unit, formula (29), formula (30) and formula (31) are utilized
De-convolution operation is carried out, the cumulative probability P after de-convolution operation is obtained1 i(X), cumulative frequency F1 i(X) and expected loss of energy
EENS1 i(X)：Recycling formula (32), formula (33) and formula (34) obtain cumulative probability Pi,n(X), cumulative frequency Fi,n(X) and electricity
Insufficient desired value EENSi,n(X)：
P1 i(X)=[Pi-1,n(X)-P1 i(X-Cd i)·FORi]/(1-FORi) (29)
F1 i(X)=[Fi-1.n(X)-F1 i(X-Cd i)·FORi-ue i·FORi·(P1 i(X-Cd i)-P1 i(X))]/(1-
FORi) (30)
EENS1 i(X)=[EENSi-1,n(X)-EENS1 i(X-Cd i)]/(1-FORi) (31)
Pi,n(X)=P1 i(X)·AVi+P1 i(X-Xd i)·DFORi+P1 i(X-Ce i)·FORi (32)
Fi,n(X)=F1 i(X)·AVi+F1 i(X-Xd i)·DFORi+F1 i(X-Ce i)·FORi+AVi·λT i·[P1 i(X-
Ce i)-P1 i(X)]+AVi·ρ- i,n·[P1 i(X-Xd i)-P1 i(X)]+DFORi·λD i·[P1 i(X-Ce i)-P1 i(X-Xd i)]
(33)
EENSi,n(X)=EENS1 i(X)·AVi+EENS1 i(X-Xd i)·DFORi+EENS1 i(X-Ce i)·FORi (34)
In formula (29)-formula (34)：AVi, DFORi, FORiEquivalent three condition unit nominal output probability, drop volume are indicated respectively
Output probability and zero output probability；λT iAnd λD iRated condition in equivalent three condition unit is indicated respectively and drops forcing for volume state
Outage rate, P1 i(X), F1 i(X), EENS1 i(X) it indicates load value is X on equivalent load duration curve after one section of deconvolution respectively
Cumulative probability, cumulative frequency and the expected loss of energy at place.
Step 14, accumulative ith put into operation the capacity that always puts into operation after generator, and judge whether i < I are true；If so, then
I+1 is assigned to i；And return to step 9；Otherwise, it indicates to complete Stochastic Production Simulation.
In final Stochastic Production Simulation result, can calculation processing obtain wind-powered electricity generation receiving amount, abandon wind rate, and production is calculated
The hot and cold number of starts, start-up cost and hot and cold start-up cost and reliability index EENS and LOLP in simulation cycle；In addition,
The influence of unit itself constraints and system constraints to Stochastic Production Simulation can also be studied.
Claims (9)
1. a kind of random production analog method considering load and wind-powered electricity generation temporal characteristics is applied in electric system,
It is characterized in that the method carries out as follows：
Step 1, generating set data, wind power resources data and the sequential load data for obtaining electric system in T research cycle, by
The sequential load data obtains original temporal load curve, and is denoted as Load1；
Step 2 establishes four kinds of unit models, including：Base lotus unit model, start and stop regulating units model, pressure load regulating units
Model and two segmentation start and stop regulating units models；
Step 3, by the generating set data and sequential load data, tentatively correct the original temporal load curve Load1,
Preliminary amendment sequential load curve is obtained, Load2 is denoted as；
Step 4 sets wind-powered electricity generation modified load number as n, and initializes n=1；
Step 5 is obtained the forced output of thermal power plant unit by the generating set data, according to the wind power resources data and heat supply machine
Group, which is forced, contributes, and corrects the preliminary amendment sequential load curve Load2, obtains n-th wind-powered electricity generation receiving amount WnWith n-th sequential
Net load curve Load3n；
Step 6, by the n-th sequential net load curve Load3nIt is converted into n-th equivalent load duration curve, and seeks institute
It states on n-th equivalent load duration curve, load value is the initial build probability P at X0,n(X), initial build frequency F0,n(X)、
Initial quantity of electricity deficiency desired value EENS0,n(X) and initial maximum rate of rise
Step 7, the initial rotation spare capacity that the electric system is determined according to the operation demand of the electric systemWith
Initial climbing capability value
Step 8, always put into operation number I by generating set data acquisition；The unit number that puts into operation is set as i, and initializes i=1；
Step 9, the constraints according to electric system judge whether to need to correct wind again using minimum cost of electricity-generating as target
Electricity, if desired, n+1 is then assigned to n, and return to step 5 executes, if not needing, it is determined that the generating set that ith puts into operation
Number；
The situation of step 10, the generating set type and tape base lotus that are put into operation according to the ith, determines the power generation that ith puts into operation
Unit model belonging to unit；
As i=1, by the initial build probability P0,n(X) and the initial build frequency F0,n(X) ith is obtained to put into operation hair
The electric system needs the rate of transform that unit puts into operation when motor groupWith the rate of transform for not needing unit and putting into operation
As i ≠ 1, by the cumulative probability P after (i-1)-th generating set that puts into operationi-1,n(X) and (i-1)-th cumulative frequency Fi-1,n(X)
Obtain ith put into operation generating set when the electric system rate of transform that needs unit to put into operationWith do not need what unit put into operation
The rate of transform
Step 11, the generator group number to be put into operation according to the ith are corrected and obtain ith and put into operation the electric power after generating set
The spinning reserve capacity of systemWith climbing capacity
Step 12, convert the unit model belonging to generating set that the ith puts into operation to equivalent two states unit model or
Equivalent three-state machine group model；
The equivalent two states unit model or equivalent three-state machine group model are carried out Stochastic Production Simulation by step 13, are obtained
Ith puts into operation the cumulative probability P after generating seti,n(X), cumulative frequency Fi,n(X), expected loss of energy EENSi,n(X) and
Maximum growth rate
Step 14, accumulative ith put into operation the capacity that always puts into operation after generator, and judge whether i < I are true；If so, then by i+
1 is assigned to i；And return to step 9；Otherwise, it indicates to complete Stochastic Production Simulation.
2. the random production analog method according to claim 1 for considering load and wind-powered electricity generation temporal characteristics, feature
Be generating set described in step 1 include thermoelectricity generating set, hydroelectricity generator group and nuclear power generator group；The generating set
Data include the type of unit, number of units, capacity, output bound, mean free error time MTTF, mean repair time MTTR with
And consumption tiny increment；The wind power resources data include Wind turbines output and its corresponding period；The sequential load data
To be sequentially arranged by hour load.
3. the random production analog method according to claim 1 for considering load and wind-powered electricity generation temporal characteristics, feature
It is according to the different operating statuses of unit, the situation of tape base lotus during Stochastic Production Simulation and to be segmented unit in step 2 to be
Capacity establishes four kinds of unit models；
The base lotus unit model：It indicates one and continuous operation unit is not segmented in basic load operation with rated capacity；
The start and stop regulating units model：Indicate the not sectional intermittent for doing peaking operation more than base lotus with a rated capacity fortune
Row unit；
The pressure load regulating units model：Indicate that one first segmentation is contributed with minimum technology in basic load operation, the second segmentation
The zonal cooling operating unit of peaking operation is done more than base lotus；
The two segmentations start and stop regulating units model：Between indicating that the segmentation of peaking operation is done in two segmentations more than base lotus
It has a rest operating unit.
4. the random production analog method according to claim 1 for considering load and wind-powered electricity generation temporal characteristics, feature
It is the receiving amount of n-th wind-powered electricity generation described in step 5 WnIt obtains as follows：
Step a, variable t is set, and initializes t=1；The preliminary sequential load curve Load2 that corrects is remembered in the load value of t moment
For Load2t；
Step b, judge whether n=1 is true, if so, then go to step c；Otherwise, d is gone to step；
Step c, judge whether t moment meets：Load2t-, which is forced, to contribute>=Wind turbines generated energy；
If satisfied, then enabling wind-powered electricity generation receiving amount=Wind turbines generated energy of t moment；Otherwise, enable t moment wind-powered electricity generation receiving amount=
Load2t-, which is forced, to contribute；Go to step f；
Step d, it is to abandon wind ratio with λ；Judge whether t moment meets：Load2t- (forced output+λ × installed capacity of wind-driven power ×
n)>=Wind turbines generated energy；
If satisfied, then enabling t moment wind-powered electricity generation receiving amount=Wind turbines generated energy；Otherwise, e is gone to step；
Step e, judge Load2t- (forcing output+λ × installed capacity of wind-driven power × n)>Whether 0 is true, if so, then enable t moment
Wind-powered electricity generation receiving amount=Load2t- (forces output+λ × installed capacity of wind-driven power × n)；Otherwise, t moment wind-powered electricity generation receiving amount=wind-powered electricity generation is enabled
Unit generation amount；
Step f, judge whether t=T is true, if so, it then indicates to obtain n-th wind-powered electricity generation receiving amount Wn；Otherwise, t+1 is assigned to
T, and return to step b.
5. the random production analog method according to claim 1 for considering load and wind-powered electricity generation temporal characteristics, feature
Be in step 9 it is to judge whether to need to correct wind-powered electricity generation again as follows：
Step (1) judges that i > 1 and the ith capacity that always puts into operation after generator that puts into operation are more than the peak load of the electric system
It is whether true, if so, it then selects the unit of consumption tiny increment minimum or machine set of segmentation to put into operation, and goes to step (7)；It is no
Then, it goes to step (2)；
Whether step (2) judges to also have in all units not put into operation and forces output unit or machine set of segmentation, if so, then choosing
The forced output unit or machine set of segmentation of consumption tiny increment minimum put into operation, and go to step (7)；Otherwise, it goes to step (3)；
Step (3) judges whether the spinning reserve constraint for meeting the electric system and Climing constant condition, if satisfied, then turning
Step (5)；Otherwise, it goes to step (4)；
Step (4) judges the first segmentation with the presence or absence of segmentation unit in all units not put into operation, and if it exists, then chooses consumption
The first minimum segmentation of amount tiny increment puts into operation, and goes to step (7)；Otherwise, it indicates to need to correct wind-powered electricity generation again；
Step (5), the unit or machine set of segmentation for searching consumption tiny increment minimum in all units not put into operation, judge the unit or
Whether machine set of segmentation is the second segmentation for being segmented unit；If so, going to step (6)；Otherwise, it goes to step (7)；
Step (6) carries out pre-corrected to the spinning reserve capacity and climbing capacity of the electric system, and judges whether to meet pre-
Revised spinning reserve constraint and Climing constant condition if satisfied, then putting into the second segmentation of segmentation unit, and are gone to step
(7)；Otherwise, then it is gone to step (5) in the case where it is the second segmentation for being segmented unit to exclude minimum specific consumption unit；
Step (7), expression need not correct wind-powered electricity generation again.
6. the random production analog method according to claim 1 for considering load and wind-powered electricity generation temporal characteristics, feature
The constraints for being electric system described in step 9 includes spinning reserve constraint and Climing constant as shown in formula (1) and formula (2)
's：
In formula (1) and formula (2)：Indicate that ith puts into operation the spinning reserve capacity of the electric system after generating set；SPR0
For the spinning reserve capacity demand of system；Indicate that the ith increasing lotus of the electric system after generating set of putting into operation is held
Amount；t0For the time for requiring spinning reserve capacity to put into；For accident spinning reserve capacity demand；For load growth
Spinning reserve capacity demand；XiGenerating set the putting into operation a little on equivalent load duration curve put into operation for ith；Table
Show generating set that ith puts into operation in the point X that puts into operationiMost increase lotus rate at place；Δ t indicates the climbing time.
7. the random production analog method according to claim 1 for considering load and wind-powered electricity generation temporal characteristics, feature
It is in step 10, it is described to need the rate of transform that unit puts into operationWith the rate of transform for not needing unit and putting into operationBy the formula of utilization (3)
It is calculated with formula (4)：
In formula (3) and formula (4)：Fi-1,n(Xi) indicate (i-1)-th generating set afterload value X=X that puts into operationiThe cumulative probability at place；
Pi-1,n(Xi) indicate (i-1)-th generating set afterload value X=X that puts into operationiThe cumulative frequency at place.
8. the random production analog method according to claim 1 for considering load and wind-powered electricity generation temporal characteristics, feature
It is to correct the spinning reserve capacity by following situation in step 11With climbing capacity
If (a) generating set that ith puts into operation is the first segmentation for being segmented unit, capacity Cd i, then formula (5) and formula are utilized
(6) it is modified：
If (b) generating set that ith puts into operation is the second segmentation for being segmented unit, capacity Xd i, then formula (7) and formula are utilized
(8) it is modified：
If (c) generating set that ith puts into operation is not to be segmented unit, it is modified using formula (9) and formula (10)：
In formula (5)-formula (10), Ce iIndicate the rated capacity for the generating set that ith puts into operation；It indicates to put into operation for (i-1)-th time
The spinning reserve capacity of electric system after generating set；The climbing of system after (i-1)-th generating set that puts into operation of expression
Capacity.
9. the random production analog method according to claim 1 for considering load and wind-powered electricity generation temporal characteristics, feature
It is the cumulative probability P described in step 13i,n(X), cumulative frequency Fi,n(X), expected loss of energy EENSi,n(X) and most it increases
Long rateIt is to be obtained by following situation：
1) if the generating set that ith puts into operation is the first segmentation for not being segmented unit or being segmented unit, formula (12), formula are utilized
(13) and formula (14) obtains cumulative probability Pi,n(X), cumulative frequency Fi,n(X) and expected loss of energy EENSi,n(X)：
Pi,n(X)=Pi-1,n(X)·(1-FORi)+Pi-1,n(X-Ci)·FORi (12)
Fi,n(X)=Fi-1,n(X)·(1-FORi)+Fi-1,n(X-Ci)·FORi+ue i·FORi·[Pi-1,n(X-Ci)-Pi-1,n(X)] (13)
EENSi,n(X)=EENSi-1,n(X)·(1-FORi)+EENSi-1,n(X-Ci)·FORi (14)
In formula (12), formula (13) and formula (14)：X indicates the load value on the equivalent load duration curve；Pi,n(X)、Fi,n(X)
And EENSi,n(X) indicate that load value is the cumulative probability at the places X, tires out on equivalent load duration curve after ith unit puts into operation respectively
Product frequency and expected loss of energy；Pi-1,n(X)、Fi-1,n(X) and EENSi-1,n(X) after indicating that (i-1)-th unit puts into operation respectively
Load value is cumulative probability, cumulative frequency and the expected loss of energy at X on equivalent load duration curve；FORiIndicate i-th
The probability that the equivalent two states unit output of the secondary generating set to put into operation is zero；ue iIndicate the equivalent of the equivalent two states unit
Repair rate；CiIndicate the capacity of generating set or machine set of segmentation that ith puts into operation, if the generating set that ith puts into operation be regardless of
Section unit, then Ci=Ce iIf the generating set that ith puts into operation is the first segmentation for being segmented unit, Ci=Cd i；
If the generating set that ith puts into operation is the second segmentation for being segmented unit, carried out using formula (15), formula (16) and formula (17)
De-convolution operation obtains the cumulative probability P after de-convolution operation1 i(X), cumulative frequency F1 i(X) and expected loss of energy
EENS1 i(X)：Recycling formula (18), formula (19) and formula (20) obtain cumulative probability Pi,n(X), cumulative frequency Fi,n(X) and electricity
Insufficient desired value EENSi,n(X)：
P1 i(X)=[Pi-1,n(X)-P1 i(X-Cd i)·FORi]/(1-FORi) (15)
F1 i(X)=[Fi-1.n(X)-F1 i(X-Cd i)·FORi-ue i·FORi·(P1 i(X-Cd i)-P1 i(X))]/(1-FORi) (16)
EENS1 i(X)=[EENSi-1,n(X)-EENS1 i(X-Cd i)]/(1-FORi) (17)
Pi,n(X)=P1 i(X)·AVi+P1 i(X-Xd i)·DFORi+P1 i(X-Ce i)·FORi (18)
Fi,n(X)=F1 i(X)·AVi+F1 i(X-Xd i)·DFORi+F1 i(X-Ce i)·FORi+AVi·λT i·[P1 i(X-Ce i)-P1 i
(X)]+AVi·ρ-i,n·[P1 i(X-Xd i)-P1 i(X)]+DFORi·λD i·[P1 i(X-Ce i)-P1 i(X-Xd i)]
(19)
EENSi,n(X)=EENS1 i(X)·AVi+EENS1 i(X-Xd i)·DFORi+EENS1 i(X-Ce i)·FORi (20)
In formula (15)-formula (20)：Ce iIndicate the rated capacity for the generating set that ith puts into operation, Cd iIndicate the hair that ith puts into operation
Motor group is the capacity for the first segmentation for being segmented unit；AVi, DFORi, FORiIndicate that the equivalent three condition unit is specified respectively
Output probability, derated output probability and zero output probability；λT iAnd λD iRated condition in the equivalent three condition unit is indicated respectively
With the forced outage rate of drop volume state, P1 i(X), F1 i(X), EENS1 i(X) it indicates persistently to bear equivalent after one section of deconvolution respectively
Load value is cumulative probability, cumulative frequency and the expected loss of energy at X on lotus curve.
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