CN110930004B - Large surface mine slope landslide hazard early warning method based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method - Google Patents
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Abstract
A method for early warning landslide disasters of a large-scale surface mine based on a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method comprises the steps of arranging monitors on the large-scale surface mine side slope to be early warned, and monitoring microseismic, displacement, deformation and stress signals near each level side slope and key structural surfaces of the mine; transmitting a plurality of signals to a signal summarizing processing station, carrying out signal identification and parameter extraction, selecting eight parameter indexes to form a multi-parameter index matrix, and respectively carrying out normalization processing on each index; analyzing landslide disaster data of the large-scale surface mine under the mining conditions of the mine and similar geology, calculating the ratio of the correct early warning times of landslide disasters to the total number of times of the correct early warning, and determining the weight value of each index; constructing a fuzzy evaluation matrix; different surface mine slope landslide hazard early warning criteria are established according to the difference of the key structural surface sizes of the surface mine overall slope, the combined step slope and the step slope. The invention can solve the monitoring and early warning problems of the landslide disaster of the large-scale surface mine slope.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a large-scale surface mine slope landslide hazard early warning method based on a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and belongs to the field of surface mine exploitation slope hazard prevention and control.
Background
In recent years, with the rapid development of economy in China, large-scale construction projects related to national folk life, such as middle and western large-scale hydroelectric engineering, highways and high-speed railways, deep resource exploitation, strategic petroleum reserve, nuclear power engineering and the like, are continuously implemented, the stability and disaster problems of rock mass in engineering areas are quite remarkable, and particularly in the exploitation process of large-scale surface mines, the blasting method is frequently used, landslide geological disasters are more easily caused, the production is seriously influenced by light weight, and casualties and serious losses of equipment and mineral resources are caused by heavy weight. Statistical analysis shows that unstable slopes or slopes with potential landslide risk in large and medium-sized surface mines in China account for about 15% -20% of the total amount of the slopes, individual mines even reach up to 30%, and the vast majority of slope instability occurs in step slopes or combined step slopes. Therefore, an effective index is required to be established to monitor and early warn the landslide hazard of the surface mine. However, the following problems currently exist: (1) In the surface mine exploitation process, the early warning criterion caused by huge monitoring data is extremely complex; (2) The traditional method has the defects that the utilization of the monitoring data is unreasonable, so that the accuracy of early warning indexes is low; (3) Neglecting the influence of blasting dynamic load to cause the slope safety coefficient to be too low; (4) the selection of staff is difficult due to excessive early warning indexes; (5) The cooperativity of landslide disaster warning criteria of slopes of different grades of mines is not considered, so that the phenomenon of failure of the slopes in the process of preventing and controlling the slopes is caused; (6) The cable is adopted to transmit the monitoring signal, the anti-interference capability is weak, the signal attenuation is large, the transmission quality is poor, the quality is heavy, the laying and the transportation are inconvenient, nonferrous metal copper is used too much, and the cost is high.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the problems of the conventional method and technology, the invention provides the large-scale surface mine slope landslide hazard early warning method based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, which can solve the monitoring and early warning problems of the large-scale surface mine slope landslide hazard, avoid the defects of extremely complex early warning criteria caused by huge monitoring data, lower early warning index accuracy caused by unreasonable data utilization, too low slope safety coefficient caused by neglecting the influence of blasting dynamic load and difficult selection of staff caused by too many early warning indexes, improve the accuracy and scientificity of mine slope landslide hazard early warning, and provide scientific basis for the prevention and treatment of the surface mine slope hazard in universities.
In order to achieve the above purpose, the technical scheme adopted by the invention is as follows:
a large-scale surface mine slope landslide hazard early warning method based on a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method comprises the following steps:
(1) Arranging a multi-probe microseismic monitor, a digital photographic measuring instrument and a distributed optical fiber anchor cable monitor on a slope of a large-scale surface mine to be pre-warned, and monitoring microseismic, displacement, deformation and stress signals near slopes of various levels and key structural surfaces of the mine;
(2) Transmitting various signals in the step (1) to a signal summarizing processing station for summarizing and preprocessing the signals and eliminating useless signals;
(3) Transmitting the preprocessed signals to a multifunctional signal converter through a signal path, generating optical signals, and transmitting the optical signals to an intelligent computer through an optical fiber channel;
(4) Signal recognition and parameter extraction are carried out in an intelligent computer, and eight parameter indexes K are selected i (i=1, 2, …) to form a multi-parameter index matrix, eight indices including Z map Value, activity Scale ΔF, temporal information entropy Q t Algorithm complexity AC value, equivalent energy level parameter sigma H * Displacement acceleration DeltaS, deformation epsilon and sliding force F S ；
(5) Analyzing the relation between the eight indexes and the mine slope landslide disaster according to the monitoring results of the eight indexes in the step (4), dividing the indexes into a positive index, a negative index and a bidirectional index, respectively carrying out normalization processing on the indexes by using an unused algorithm,
wherein k is i An ith value in the index monitoring value sequence; k (k) max The maximum value of the index monitoring value sequence is the maximum value; k (k) min The minimum value of the index monitoring value sequence is the minimum value; k' i ＝|k i -k avg |；k′ max Is k i ' maximum of sequence; k (k) avg The average value of the index monitoring value sequence;
(6) Analyzing landslide disaster data of the large-scale surface mine under the mining condition of the mine and similar geology by utilizing a statistical principle, specifically analyzing eight indexes in the step (4), calculating the ratio of the correct number of landslide disaster early warning to the total number of times of the correct early warning of each index, determining the weight value of each index,
wherein R is i To refer to the weight of the i-th index,
early warning the correct times for indicating the ith index, < + >>
The correct total number of times should be pre-warned for indicating the ith index;
(7) Constructing a fuzzy evaluation matrix, performing fuzzy operation and normalization processing by using the normalized index values and the weight values of the indexes, and fusing eight indexes into one comprehensive index F Heald ；
(8) Combining the comprehensive index F in the step (7) Heald The numerical value of (2) is transmitted to a landslide disaster early warning instrument in real time, and a landslide disaster early warning rule of the surface mine slope is established as follows,
(9) Repeating the steps (6) - (8), establishing different landslide hazard early warning criteria of the surface mine slope according to different sizes of key structural surfaces of the surface mine overall slope, the combined step slope and the step slope, and adopting corresponding prevention and treatment measures according to different landslide hazard dangers.
Further, in the step (1), the plurality of signals refer to properties of signals, including electrical signals, digital signals, and optical signals.
In the step (2), the useless signal refers to noise or an unrecognizable signal.
Still further, in the step (4), the eight index calculation formulas are as follows,
①Z map ：
in the method, in the process of the invention,
for all mean magnitude samples over the entire time interval +.>
Is a relatively stable quantity, and characterizes the background characteristics of the research area;
Mean magnitude sample for samples in the time segment to be examined +.>
Arithmetic mean of (2); sigma (sigma) M Sum sigma m Standard deviation of two samples, respectively, whether Z>2.5, also Z<2.5, which are all small probability events, however, the occurrence of landslide disasters is also a small probability event, and thus |Z| > 2.5 is taken as an abnormal critical value;
(2) activity scale Δf:
wherein T is the number of days, M is the microseismic energy level, and the strong energy release theory is in direct proportion to the microseismic activity scale, namely, high value abnormality occurs before landslide disaster occurs;
(3) entropy of time information Q t ：
Wherein n is the total number of mine earthquake events with a certain time window length;
t i for the time of occurrence of the ith mine earthquake, p i The value is between 0 and 1; theoretically, before landslide hazard occurs, there is a decline process of entropy value, which is essentially that the non-uniformity of microseismic energy spatial distribution increases;
(4) algorithm complexity AC value:
AC＝lnn/(n·lnM)
wherein n is the number of energy level changes in a certain time window; m is M max -M min +1. Before landslide hazard occurs, there should theoretically be a transition from a high value anomaly to a low value for the AC value;
(5) equivalent performance level parameter sigma H *
M＝lg E，
Wherein m is * Normalized energy level for microseismic over a certain time window,
is m * Is in the presence of sigma before landslide hazard occurs H * High value anomaly;
(6) displacement acceleration Δs:
the displacement acceleration delta S refers to the displacement increasing speed of the side slope, and the delta S has an obvious increasing phenomenon before landslide disasters occur;
(7) deformation amount ε:
the deformation epsilon refers to the deformation of the slope rock mass, and the epsilon has a remarkable increase phenomenon before landslide disasters occur;
(8) sliding force F S ：
Sliding force F S Refers to the comprehensive sliding force of the overlying rock mass on the structural surface of the rock mass of the side slope, and comes from the superposition of dead weight static load and blasting dynamic load, before landslide disaster occurs, F S Can be obviously increased and is larger than the anti-skid force.
In the step (5), the forward index means: the larger the index value is, the larger the possibility of landslide hazard occurrence is, and the negative index means: the smaller the index value is, the greater the possibility of landslide hazard occurrence is, and the bidirectional index is: the larger or smaller the absolute value of the index value, the greater the possibility of occurrence of landslide hazard.
The beneficial effects of the invention are as follows: the method can solve the monitoring and early warning problems of landslide disasters of large-scale surface mines, and avoid the defects of extremely complex early warning criteria caused by huge monitoring data, lower early warning index accuracy caused by unreasonable data utilization, too low slope safety coefficient caused by neglecting the influence of blasting dynamic load and difficult selection of staff caused by too many early warning indexes; the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is suitable for complex surface mine exploitation environments and landslide disaster processes, and monitored data can be fully utilized; the synergy of landslide hazard warning criteria of different grades of slopes of mines is considered, so that the phenomenon that the landslide hazard warning criteria are lost in the process of preventing and controlling the slopes is avoided; the optical fiber channel has the advantages of large communication capacity, long transmission distance, electromagnetic interference resistance, good transmission quality, small optical fiber size, light weight, convenience in laying and transportation, rich material sources, good environmental protection, contribution to saving nonferrous metal copper and effective reduction of signal attenuation; the accuracy and the scientificity of the mine slope landslide disaster early warning are improved, and a scientific basis is provided for the prevention and the control of the mine slope landslide disaster in the university open air. Has important significance for reducing investment, reducing production cost and ensuring mining safety for large-scale surface mine side slopes and water conservancy side slopes; meanwhile, the operation is simple and convenient, the calculation efficiency is high, and the application range is wider.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a flow chart of a method for early warning landslide hazard of a large-scale surface mine based on a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.
Detailed Description
The invention is further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings.
Referring to fig. 1, a method for early warning landslide hazard of a large-scale surface mine slope based on a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method comprises the following steps:
(1) Arranging monitoring instruments such as a multi-probe microseismic monitor, a digital photographic measuring instrument, a distributed optical fiber anchor cable monitor and the like on a large-scale surface mine slope to be pre-warned, and monitoring various signals such as microseismic, displacement, deformation, stress and the like near each level slope and a key structural surface of the mine;
(2) Transmitting various signals in the step (1) to a signal summarizing processing station for summarizing and preprocessing the signals and eliminating useless signals;
(3) Transmitting the preprocessed signals to a multifunctional signal converter through a signal path, generating optical signals, and transmitting the optical signals to an intelligent computer through an optical fiber channel;
(4) Signal recognition and parameter extraction are carried out in an intelligent computer, and eight parameter indexes K are selected i (i=1, 2, …) to form a multi-parameter index matrix, eight indices including Z map Value, activity Scale ΔF, temporal information entropy Q t Algorithm complexity AC value, equivalent energy level parameter sigma H * Displacement acceleration DeltaS, deformation epsilon and sliding force F S ；
(5) Analyzing the relation between the eight indexes and the mine slope landslide disaster according to the monitoring results of the eight indexes in the step (4), dividing the indexes into a positive index, a negative index and a bidirectional index, respectively carrying out normalization processing on the indexes by using an unused algorithm,
wherein k is i An ith value in the index monitoring value sequence; k (k) max The maximum value of the index monitoring value sequence is the maximum value; k (k) min The minimum value of the index monitoring value sequence is the minimum value; k' i ＝|k i -k avg |；k′ max Is k i ' maximum of sequence; k (k) avg Monitoring for indexAn average value of the sequence of values;
(6) Analyzing landslide disaster data of the large-scale surface mine under the mining condition of the mine and similar geology by utilizing a statistical principle, specifically analyzing eight indexes in the step (4), calculating the ratio of the correct number of landslide disaster early warning to the total number of times of the correct early warning of each index, determining the weight value of each index,
wherein R is i To refer to the weight of the i-th index,
early warning the correct times for indicating the ith index, < + >>
The correct total number of times should be pre-warned for indicating the ith index;
(7) Constructing a fuzzy evaluation matrix, performing fuzzy operation and normalization processing by using the normalized index values and the weight values of the indexes, and fusing eight indexes into one comprehensive index F Heald ；
(8) Combining the comprehensive index F in the step (7) Heald The numerical value of (2) is transmitted to a landslide disaster early warning instrument in real time, and a landslide disaster early warning rule of the surface mine slope is established as follows,
(9) Repeating the steps (6) - (8), establishing different landslide hazard early warning criteria of the surface mine slope according to different sizes of key structural surfaces of the surface mine overall slope, the combined step slope and the step slope, and adopting corresponding prevention and treatment measures according to different landslide hazard dangers.
Further, in the step (1), the plurality of signals refer to properties of signals, including electrical signals, digital signals, optical signals, and the like.
In the step (2), the useless signal refers to noise or an unrecognizable signal.
In the step (4), eight index calculation formulas are as follows,
①Z map ：
in the method, in the process of the invention,
for all mean magnitude samples over the entire time interval +.>
Is a relatively stable quantity, and characterizes the background characteristics of the research area;
Mean magnitude sample for samples in the time segment to be examined +.>
Arithmetic mean of (2); sigma (sigma) M Sum sigma m Standard deviation of two samples, respectively, whether Z>2.5, also Z<2.5, which are all small probability events, however, the occurrence of landslide disasters is also a small probability event, and thus |Z| > 2.5 is taken as an abnormal critical value;
(2) activity scale Δf:
wherein T is the number of days, and M is the microseismic energy level. The strong energy release theory is in direct proportion to the micro-seismic activity scale, namely, high value abnormality occurs before landslide hazard occurs;
(3) entropy of time information Q t ：
Wherein n is the total number of mine earthquake events with a certain time window length;
t i for the time of occurrence of the ith mine earthquake, p i The value is between 0 and 1. Theoretically, before landslide hazard occurs, there is a decline process of entropy value, which is essentially that the non-uniformity of microseismic energy spatial distribution increases;
(4) algorithm complexity AC value:
AC＝lnn/(n·lnM)
wherein n is the number of energy level changes in a certain time window; m is M max -M min +1. Before landslide hazard occurs, there should theoretically be a transition from a high value anomaly to a low value for the AC value;
(5) equivalent performance level parameter sigma H *
M＝lg E，
Wherein m is * Normalized energy level for microseismic over a certain time window,
is m * Is used for the energy level normalization. Sigma exists before landslide hazard occurs H * High value anomaly;
(6) displacement acceleration Δs:
the displacement acceleration delta S refers to the displacement increasing speed of the side slope, and the delta S has an obvious increasing phenomenon before landslide disasters occur;
(7) deformation amount ε:
the deformation epsilon refers to the deformation of the slope rock mass, and the epsilon has a remarkable increase phenomenon before landslide disasters occur;
(8) sliding force F S ：
Sliding force F S Refers to a rock mass covered on the structural surface of a rock mass of a side slopeThe comprehensive sliding force comes from the superposition of dead weight static load and blasting dynamic load, and before landslide disaster occurs, F S Can be obviously increased and is larger than the anti-skid force.
In the step (5), the forward index means: the larger the index value is, the larger the possibility of landslide hazard occurrence is, and the negative index means: the smaller the index value is, the greater the possibility of landslide hazard occurrence is, and the bidirectional index is: the larger or smaller the absolute value of the index value is, the larger the landslide hazard occurrence probability is;
the method of the embodiment can solve the monitoring and early warning problems of landslide disasters of the large-scale surface mine, and avoid the defects of extremely complex early warning criteria caused by huge monitoring data, lower early warning index accuracy caused by unreasonable data utilization, too low slope safety coefficient caused by neglecting the influence of blasting dynamic load and difficult selection of staff caused by too many early warning indexes; the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is suitable for complex surface mine exploitation environments and landslide disaster processes, and monitored data can be fully utilized; the synergy of landslide hazard warning criteria of different grades of slopes of mines is considered, so that the phenomenon that the landslide hazard warning criteria are lost in the process of preventing and controlling the slopes is avoided; the optical fiber channel has the advantages of large communication capacity, long transmission distance, electromagnetic interference resistance, good transmission quality, small optical fiber size, light weight, convenience in laying and transportation, rich material sources, good environmental protection, contribution to saving nonferrous metal copper and effective reduction of signal attenuation; the accuracy and the scientificity of the mine slope landslide disaster early warning are improved, and a scientific basis is provided for the prevention and the control of the mine slope landslide disaster in the university open air. Has important significance for reducing investment, reducing production cost and ensuring mining safety for large-scale surface mine side slopes and water conservancy side slopes; meanwhile, the operation is simple and convenient, the calculation efficiency is high, and the application range is wider.
Claims (5)
1. A large-scale surface mine slope landslide hazard early warning method based on a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
(1) Arranging a multi-probe microseismic monitor, a digital photographic measuring instrument and a distributed optical fiber anchor cable monitor on a slope of a large-scale surface mine to be pre-warned, and monitoring microseismic, displacement, deformation and stress signals near slopes of various levels and key structural surfaces of the mine;
(2) Transmitting various signals in the step (1) to a signal summarizing processing station for summarizing and preprocessing the signals and eliminating useless signals;
(3) Transmitting the preprocessed signals to a multifunctional signal converter through a signal path, generating optical signals, and transmitting the optical signals to an intelligent computer through an optical fiber channel;
(4) Signal recognition and parameter extraction are carried out in an intelligent computer, and eight parameter indexes K are selected i (i=1, 2, …) to form a multi-parameter index matrix, eight indices including Z map Value, activity Scale ΔF, temporal information entropy Q t Algorithm complexity AC value, equivalent energy level parameter sigma H * Displacement acceleration DeltaS, deformation epsilon and sliding force F S ；
(5) Analyzing the relation between the eight indexes and the mine slope landslide disaster according to the monitoring results of the eight indexes in the step (4), dividing the indexes into a positive index, a negative index and a bidirectional index, respectively carrying out normalization processing on the indexes by using an unused algorithm,
wherein k is i An ith value in the index monitoring value sequence; k (k) max The maximum value of the index monitoring value sequence is the maximum value; k (k) min The minimum value of the index monitoring value sequence is the minimum value; k' i ＝|k i -k avg |；k' max For k' i The maximum value of the sequence; k (k) avg The average value of the index monitoring value sequence;
(6) Analyzing landslide disaster data of the large-scale surface mine under the mining condition of the mine and similar geology by utilizing a statistical principle, specifically analyzing eight indexes in the step (4), calculating the ratio of the correct number of landslide disaster early warning to the total number of times of the correct early warning of each index, determining the weight value of each index,
wherein R is i To refer to the weight of the i-th index,
early warning the correct times for indicating the ith index, < + >>
The correct total number of times should be pre-warned for indicating the ith index;
(7) Constructing a fuzzy evaluation matrix, performing fuzzy operation and normalization processing by using the normalized index values and the weight values of the indexes, and fusing eight indexes into one comprehensive index F Heald ；
(8) Combining the comprehensive index F in the step (7) Heald The numerical value of (2) is transmitted to a landslide disaster early warning instrument in real time, and a landslide disaster early warning rule of the surface mine slope is established as follows,
(9) Repeating the steps (6) - (8), establishing different landslide hazard early warning criteria of the surface mine slope according to different sizes of key structural surfaces of the surface mine overall slope, the combined step slope and the step slope, and adopting corresponding prevention and treatment measures according to different landslide hazard dangers.
2. The method for early warning landslide hazard of large surface mine based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method as set forth in claim 1, wherein in the step (1), the plurality of signals refer to attributes of signals including electric signals, digital signals and optical signals.
3. The method for early warning of landslide hazard of large surface mine based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method as set forth in claim 1 or 2, wherein in said step (2), the useless signal is noise or unidentifiable signal.
4. The method for early warning of landslide hazard of large surface mine based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method as set forth in claim 1 or 2, wherein in the step (4), eight index calculation formulas are as follows,
①Z map ：
in the method, in the process of the invention,
for all mean magnitude samples over the entire time interval +.>
Is a relatively stable quantity, and characterizes the background characteristics of the research area;
Mean magnitude sample for samples in the time segment to be examined +.>
Arithmetic mean of (2); sigma (sigma) M Sum sigma m Standard deviation of two samples, respectively, whether Z>2.5, also Z<2.5, which are all small probability events, however, the occurrence of landslide disasters is also a small probability event, and thus |Z| > 2.5 is taken as an abnormal critical value;
(2) activity scale Δf:
wherein T is the number of days, M is the microseismic energy level, and the strong energy release theory is in direct proportion to the microseismic activity scale, namely, high value abnormality occurs before landslide disaster occurs;
(3) entropy of time information Q t ：
Wherein n is the total number of mine earthquake events with a certain time window length;
t i for the time of occurrence of the ith mine earthquake, p i The value is between 0 and 1; theoretically, before landslide hazard occurs, there is a decline process of entropy value, which is essentially that the non-uniformity of microseismic energy spatial distribution increases;
(4) algorithm complexity AC value:
AC＝ln n/(n·ln M)
wherein n is the number of energy level changes in a certain time window; m is M max -M min +1, before landslide hazard occurs, there should theoretically be a transition from a high value anomaly to a low value for the AC value;
(5) equivalent performance level parameter sigma H *
M＝lg E，
Wherein m is * Normalized energy level for microseismic over a certain time window,
is m * Is in the presence of sigma before landslide hazard occurs H * High value anomaly; />
(6) Displacement acceleration Δs:
the displacement acceleration delta S refers to the displacement increasing speed of the side slope, and the delta S has an obvious increasing phenomenon before landslide disasters occur;
(7) deformation amount ε:
the deformation epsilon refers to the deformation of the slope rock mass, and the epsilon has a remarkable increase phenomenon before landslide disasters occur;
(8) sliding force F S ：
Sliding force F S Refers to the comprehensive sliding force of the overlying rock mass on the structural surface of the rock mass of the side slope, and comes from the superposition of dead weight static load and blasting dynamic load, before landslide disaster occurs, F S Can be obviously increased and is larger than the anti-skid force.
5. The method for early warning of landslide hazard of large surface mine based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method as set forth in claim 1 or 2, wherein in the step (5), the forward index means: the larger the index value is, the larger the possibility of landslide hazard occurrence is, and the negative index means: the smaller the index value is, the greater the possibility of landslide hazard occurrence is, and the bidirectional index is: the larger or smaller the absolute value of the index value, the greater the possibility of occurrence of landslide hazard.
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