CN110930004B - Early warning method of landslide disaster in large open-pit mine slope based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method - Google Patents

Early warning method of landslide disaster in large open-pit mine slope based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method Download PDF

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CN110930004B
CN110930004B CN201911110164.9A CN201911110164A CN110930004B CN 110930004 B CN110930004 B CN 110930004B CN 201911110164 A CN201911110164 A CN 201911110164A CN 110930004 B CN110930004 B CN 110930004B
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杜时贵
刘广建
雍睿
刘文连
杨晓杰
李泽
夏才初
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Abstract

A method for early warning landslide disasters of a large-scale surface mine based on a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method comprises the steps of arranging monitors on the large-scale surface mine side slope to be early warned, and monitoring microseismic, displacement, deformation and stress signals near each level side slope and key structural surfaces of the mine; transmitting a plurality of signals to a signal summarizing processing station, carrying out signal identification and parameter extraction, selecting eight parameter indexes to form a multi-parameter index matrix, and respectively carrying out normalization processing on each index; analyzing landslide disaster data of the large-scale surface mine under the mining conditions of the mine and similar geology, calculating the ratio of the correct early warning times of landslide disasters to the total number of times of the correct early warning, and determining the weight value of each index; constructing a fuzzy evaluation matrix; different surface mine slope landslide hazard early warning criteria are established according to the difference of the key structural surface sizes of the surface mine overall slope, the combined step slope and the step slope. The invention can solve the monitoring and early warning problems of the landslide disaster of the large-scale surface mine slope.

Description

基于模糊综合评价法的大型露天矿山边坡滑坡灾害预警方法Early warning method of landslide disaster in large open-pit mines based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method

技术领域Technical Field

本发明涉及基于模糊综合评价法的大型露天矿山边坡滑坡灾害预警方法，属于露天矿山开采边坡灾害防控领域。The invention relates to a large-scale open-pit mine slope landslide disaster early warning method based on a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and belongs to the field of open-pit mine mining slope disaster prevention and control.

背景技术Background Art

近几年来，随着我国经济快速发展，一些关系到国计民生的大型建设项目如中西部大型水电工程、高速公路和高速铁路、深部资源开采、战略石油储备以及核电工程等相继实施，工程区岩体的稳定性及灾变问题相当突出，尤其是在大型露天矿山开采过程中，爆破法经常被使用，更易造成滑坡地质灾害，轻则严重影响生产，重则造成人员伤亡和设备及矿产资源的重大损失。统计分析表明，我国大中型露天矿山中不稳定边坡或具有潜在滑坡危险的边坡占边坡总量的15％～ 20％左右，个别矿山甚至高达30％，且边坡失稳绝大多数发生在台阶边坡或组合台阶边坡。因此，需建立有效的指标来对露天矿山边坡滑坡灾害进行监测预警。但是，目前存在以下问题：(1)露天矿山开采过程中，庞大的监测数据导致的预警准则极复杂；(2)传统方法对监测数据利用不合理，导致的预警指标正确率较低；(3)忽略爆破动载的影响导致边坡安全系数过低；(4)预警指标过多导致工作人员难以选择；(5)不考虑矿山不同等级边坡滑坡灾害预警准则的协同性，导致边坡防治过程中顾此失彼的现象；(6)采用电缆传输监测信号，抗干扰能力弱，信号衰减大，传输质量差，质量重不便于铺设和运输，过多使用有色金属铜，费用较高。In recent years, with the rapid development of my country's economy, some large-scale construction projects related to the national economy and people's livelihood, such as large hydropower projects in the central and western regions, highways and high-speed railways, deep resource mining, strategic oil reserves, and nuclear power projects, have been implemented one after another. The stability and disaster problems of rock mass in the project area are quite prominent, especially in the process of large open-pit mining, where blasting methods are often used, which is more likely to cause landslide geological disasters, which seriously affect production at the least and cause casualties and major losses of equipment and mineral resources at the worst. Statistical analysis shows that unstable slopes or slopes with potential landslide hazards in large and medium-sized open-pit mines in my country account for about 15% to 20% of the total slopes, and even up to 30% in some mines, and most of the slope instability occurs in step slopes or combined step slopes. Therefore, it is necessary to establish effective indicators to monitor and warn of landslide disasters in open-pit mines. However, the following problems exist: (1) During open-pit mining, the huge amount of monitoring data leads to extremely complex early warning criteria; (2) Traditional methods make unreasonable use of monitoring data, resulting in a low accuracy rate of early warning indicators; (3) Ignoring the impact of blasting dynamic loads leads to a low slope safety factor; (4) Too many early warning indicators make it difficult for staff to choose; (5) The coordination of early warning criteria for landslide disasters at different levels of mine slopes is not considered, resulting in the phenomenon of neglecting one thing while focusing on another in the process of slope prevention and control; (6) The use of cables to transmit monitoring signals has weak anti-interference ability, large signal attenuation, poor transmission quality, heavy weight, and is not convenient for laying and transportation. Excessive use of non-ferrous metal copper results in high costs.

发明内容Summary of the invention

针对上述现有传统方法和技术存在的问题，本发明提供一种基于模糊综合评价法的大型露天矿山边坡滑坡灾害预警方法，能解决大型露天矿山边坡滑坡灾害的监测预警难题，避免了庞大的监测数据导致的预警准则极复杂、数据利用不合理导致的预警指标正确率较低、忽略爆破动载的影响导致边坡安全系数过低、预警指标过多导致工作人员难以选择的缺点，提高了矿山边坡滑坡灾害预警的准确性和科学性，为大学露天矿山边坡灾害防治提供科学依据。In view of the problems existing in the above-mentioned traditional methods and technologies, the present invention provides a large-scale open-pit mine slope landslide disaster early warning method based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, which can solve the monitoring and early warning problems of large-scale open-pit mine slope landslide disasters, avoid the shortcomings of extremely complex early warning criteria caused by huge monitoring data, low accuracy of early warning indicators caused by unreasonable data utilization, ignoring the influence of blasting dynamic loads resulting in too low slope safety factor, and too many early warning indicators making it difficult for staff to choose, improves the accuracy and scientificity of mine slope landslide disaster early warning, and provides a scientific basis for the prevention and control of slope disasters in university open-pit mines.

为了实现上述目的，本发明采用的技术方案是：In order to achieve the above object, the technical solution adopted by the present invention is:

一种基于模糊综合评价法的大型露天矿山边坡滑坡灾害预警方法，包括以下步骤：A large-scale open-pit mine slope landslide disaster early warning method based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method includes the following steps:

(1)在待预警大型露天矿山边坡上布置多探头微震监测仪、数字化摄影测量仪和分布式光纤锚索监测仪，监测矿山各级别边坡及关键结构面附近的微震、位移、变形和应力信号；(1) Multi-probe microseismic monitoring instruments, digital photogrammetry instruments and distributed fiber optic anchor cable monitoring instruments are deployed on the slopes of large open-pit mines to monitor microseismic, displacement, deformation and stress signals near the slopes of various levels and key structural surfaces of the mines;

(2)步骤(1)中的多种信号传输到信号汇总处理站，进行信号的汇总和预处理，剔除无用信号；(2) The various signals in step (1) are transmitted to a signal aggregation and processing station for aggregation and preprocessing of the signals to eliminate useless signals;

(3)通过信号通路，将经过预处理的多种信号传输到多功能信号转换器，生成光信号，并通过光纤通道传输到智能计算机中；(3) transmitting the pre-processed multiple signals to a multifunctional signal converter through a signal path, generating an optical signal, and transmitting the optical signal to an intelligent computer through an optical fiber channel;

(4)在智能计算机中进行信号识别与参数提取，选定八个参数指标 Ki(i＝1,2,…8)，组成多参量指标矩阵，八个指标包括Zmap值、活动标度ΔF、时间信息熵Qt、算法复杂性AC值、等效能级参数σH *、位移增速ΔS、变形量ε、下滑力FS；(4) Signal recognition and parameter extraction are performed in an intelligent computer, and eight parameter indicators K i (i=1, 2, ... 8) are selected to form a multi-parameter indicator matrix. The eight indicators include Z map value, activity scale ΔF, time information entropy Q t , algorithm complexity AC value, equivalent energy level parameter σ H * , displacement speed increase ΔS, deformation ε, and sliding force F S ;

(5)根据步骤(4)中八个指标的监测结果，分析其与矿山边坡滑坡灾害的关系，将指标分为正向指标、负向指标和双向指标，利用不用的算法将各指标分别进行归一化处理，(5) Based on the monitoring results of the eight indicators in step (4), the relationship between the indicators and the mine slope landslide disaster is analyzed, and the indicators are divided into positive indicators, negative indicators and bidirectional indicators. Different algorithms are used to normalize each indicator.

Figure BDA0002272471760000031
Figure BDA0002272471760000031

式中，ki为指标监测值序列中第i个值；kmax为指标监测值序列最大值；kmin为指标监测值序列最小值；k′i＝|ki-kavg|；k′max为ki'序列的最大值；kavg为指标监测值序列的平均值；Wherein, k i is the i-th value in the indicator monitoring value sequence; kmax is the maximum value of the indicator monitoring value sequence; kmin is the minimum value of the indicator monitoring value sequence; k′ i = |k i -k avg |; k′ max is the maximum value of the k i 'sequence; k avg is the average value of the indicator monitoring value sequence;

(6)利用统计学原理，分析本矿山及相似地质开采条件的大型露天矿山滑坡灾害数据，具体针对步骤(4)中的八个指标进行分析，计算各指标对滑坡灾害预警正确次数与应预警正确总次数的比值，确定各指标的权重值，(6) Analyze the landslide disaster data of this mine and large open-pit mines with similar geological mining conditions by using statistical principles. Specifically, analyze the eight indicators in step (4), calculate the ratio of the number of correct landslide disaster warnings to the total number of correct warnings, and determine the weight of each indicator.

Figure BDA0002272471760000032
Figure BDA0002272471760000032

式中，Ri为指第i个指标的权重，

Figure BDA0002272471760000034
为指第i个指标预警正确次数，
Figure BDA0002272471760000035
为指第 i个指标应预警正确总次数；In the formula, Ri refers to the weight of the i-th indicator,
Figure BDA0002272471760000034
is the number of correct warnings for the i-th indicator,
Figure BDA0002272471760000035
It refers to the total number of correct warnings for the i-th indicator;

(7)构建模糊评价矩阵，利用经过归一化处理的指标值与各指标的权重值，进行模糊运算与归一化处理，将八个指标融合为一个综合指标F综；(7) Construct a fuzzy evaluation matrix, use the normalized index values and the weight values of each index, perform fuzzy operations and normalization processing, and integrate the eight indexes into a comprehensive index F;

(8)将步骤(7)中的综合指标F综的数值实时传输到滑坡灾害预警仪中，建立露天矿山边坡滑坡灾害预警准则，如下，(8) The value of the comprehensive index F in step (7) is transmitted in real time to the landslide disaster early warning instrument to establish the open-pit mine slope landslide disaster early warning criteria as follows:

Figure BDA0002272471760000033
Figure BDA0002272471760000033

(9)重复步骤(6)～(8)，针对露天矿山总体边坡、组合台阶边坡、台阶边坡关键结构面尺寸的不同，建立不同的露天矿山边坡滑坡灾害预警准则，针对不同的滑坡灾害危险性，则需要采取相应的防治和治理措施。(9) Repeat steps (6) to (8) to establish different open-pit mine slope landslide disaster warning criteria according to the different sizes of the overall slope, combined step slope, and key structural surface of the step slope. According to the different landslide disaster risks, corresponding prevention and control measures need to be taken.

进一步，所述步骤(1)中，多种信号是指信号的属性，包括电信号、数字信号和光信号。Furthermore, in step (1), the multiple signals refer to properties of signals, including electrical signals, digital signals and optical signals.

所述步骤(2)中，无用信号是指噪音或者无法识别的信号。In the step (2), useless signals refer to noise or unrecognizable signals.

再进一步，所述步骤(4)中，八个指标计算公式如下，Furthermore, in step (4), the eight index calculation formulas are as follows:

①Zmap：①Z map :

Figure BDA0002272471760000041
Figure BDA0002272471760000041

式中，

Figure BDA0002272471760000042
为整个时间区间上对所有平均震级样本
Figure BDA0002272471760000043
的算术平均值，是一个较为稳定的量，表征研究区域的背景特征；
Figure BDA0002272471760000044
为要考察的时间区段内样本平均震级样本
Figure BDA0002272471760000045
的算术平均值；σM和σm分别是两样本的标准差，无论是当Z>2.5，还是 Z<-2.5，都是小概率事件，然而滑坡灾害的发生也正是小概率事件，于是，取 |Z|＞2.5为异常临界值；In the formula,
Figure BDA0002272471760000042
is the average magnitude sample for the entire time interval
Figure BDA0002272471760000043
The arithmetic mean of is a relatively stable quantity, which characterizes the background characteristics of the study area;
Figure BDA0002272471760000044
is the average magnitude of the samples in the time period to be investigated
Figure BDA0002272471760000045
The arithmetic mean of | Z |>2.5 and | Z |>2.5 are the standard deviations of the two samples. Whether Z>2.5 or Z<-2.5, it is a low-probability event. However, the occurrence of landslide disaster is also a low-probability event. Therefore, |Z|>2.5 is taken as the abnormal critical value.

②活动标度ΔF：②Activity scale ΔF:

Figure BDA0002272471760000046
F0＝106.11+1.09M
Figure BDA0002272471760000046
F 0 = 10 6.11 + 1.09M

式中，T为天数，M为微震能级，强能量释放理论与微震活动标度成正比，即滑坡灾害出现之前出现高值异常；In the formula, T is the number of days, M is the microseismic energy level, and the strong energy release theory is proportional to the scale of microseismic activity, that is, high value anomalies appear before landslide disasters occur;

③时间信息熵Qt：③ Time information entropy Q t :

Figure BDA0002272471760000047
Figure BDA0002272471760000047

式中，n为某时间窗长的矿震事件总数；

Figure BDA0002272471760000048
ti为第i个矿震发生的时间，pi取值0～1之间；理论上，在滑坡灾害出现之前，熵值存在一个下降过程，其本质是微震能量空间分布的非均匀性增加；Where n is the total number of mine earthquake events in a certain time window;
Figure BDA0002272471760000048
ti is the time when the i-th mine earthquake occurs, and pi takes a value between 0 and 1. Theoretically, before the landslide disaster occurs, the entropy value has a decreasing process, and its essence is the increase of the non-uniformity of the spatial distribution of microseismic energy.

④算法复杂性AC值：④Algorithm complexity AC value:

AC＝lnn/(n·lnM)AC＝lnn/(n·lnM)

式中，n为某时间窗内能级变化次数；M为Mmax-Mmin+1。在滑坡灾害出现之前， AC值理论上应存在由高值异常向低值的转变；Where n is the number of energy level changes within a certain time window; M is M max -M min + 1. Before a landslide disaster occurs, the AC value should theoretically change from an abnormally high value to a low value;

⑤等效能级参数σH*⑤Equivalent energy level parameter σ H *

M＝lg E，

Figure BDA0002272471760000051
M＝lg E，
Figure BDA0002272471760000051

式中，m*为某时间窗内微震归一化能级，

Figure BDA0002272471760000052
为m*的平均归一化能级，在滑坡灾害出现之前，均存在σH*高值异常现象；Where m * is the normalized energy level of microseisms in a certain time window,
Figure BDA0002272471760000052
is the average normalized energy level of m * . Before the landslide disaster occurs, there is an abnormal high value of σ H *;

⑥位移增速ΔS：⑥Displacement speed increase ΔS:

位移增速ΔS是指边坡的位移增加速度，在滑坡灾害出现之前，ΔS有一个明显的增加现象；The displacement growth rate ΔS refers to the displacement increase rate of the slope. Before the landslide disaster occurs, ΔS has an obvious increase phenomenon;

⑦变形量ε：⑦Deformation ε:

变形量ε是指边坡岩体的变形量，在滑坡灾害出现之前，ε有一个明显的增加现象；The deformation ε refers to the deformation of the slope rock mass. Before the landslide disaster occurs, ε has an obvious increase phenomenon;

⑧下滑力FS：⑧ Sliding force F S ：

下滑力FS是指边坡岩体结构面上覆岩体的综合下滑力，来自于自重静载和爆破动载的叠加，在滑坡灾害出现之前，FS会明显增加，大于抗滑力。The sliding force FS refers to the comprehensive sliding force of the overlying rock mass on the slope rock structure surface, which comes from the superposition of deadweight static load and blasting dynamic load. Before the landslide disaster occurs, FS will increase significantly and be greater than the anti-sliding force.

所述步骤(5)中，正向指标是指：指标值越大，滑坡灾害发生可能性越大，负向指标是指：指标值越小，滑坡灾害发生可能性越大，双向指标是指：指标值的绝对值越大或越小，滑坡灾害发生可能性越大。In the step (5), the positive index means that the larger the index value, the greater the possibility of a landslide disaster; the negative index means that the smaller the index value, the greater the possibility of a landslide disaster; the bidirectional index means that the larger or smaller the absolute value of the index value, the greater the possibility of a landslide disaster.

本发明的有益效果表现在：能解决大型露天矿山边坡滑坡灾害的监测预警难题，避免了庞大的监测数据导致的预警准则极复杂、数据利用不合理导致的预警指标正确率较低、忽略爆破动载的影响导致边坡安全系数过低、预警指标过多导致工作人员难以选择的缺点；模糊综合评价法适应复杂的露天矿山开采环境和滑坡灾害过程，能充分利用监测的数据；考虑矿山不同等级边坡滑坡灾害预警准则的协同性，避免了边坡防治过程中顾此失彼的现象；光纤通道通信容量大、传输距离远，抗电磁干扰、传输质量佳，光纤尺寸小、重量轻，便于铺设和运输，材料来源丰富，环境保护好，有利于节约有色金属铜，能有效降低信号的衰减；提高了矿山边坡滑坡灾害预警的准确性和科学性，为大学露天矿山边坡灾害防治提供科学依据。对于大型露天矿山边坡和水利边坡减少投资、降低生产成本、保证开采安全有着重要的意义；同时操作简便，计算效率高，适用范围较宽。The beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows: it can solve the monitoring and early warning problems of landslide disasters on the slopes of large open-pit mines, avoid the problems of extremely complex early warning criteria caused by huge monitoring data, low accuracy of early warning indicators caused by unreasonable data utilization, too low safety factor of slopes caused by ignoring the impact of blasting dynamic load, and too many early warning indicators causing difficulty for staff to choose; the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is adapted to the complex open-pit mining environment and landslide disaster process, and can make full use of the monitored data; the synergy of early warning criteria for landslide disasters on slopes of different levels in mines is considered, and the phenomenon of losing one thing while taking care of another is avoided in the process of slope prevention and control; the optical fiber channel has large communication capacity, long transmission distance, anti-electromagnetic interference, good transmission quality, small optical fiber size, light weight, easy to lay and transport, rich material sources, good environmental protection, conducive to saving non-ferrous metal copper, and can effectively reduce signal attenuation; it improves the accuracy and scientificity of early warning of landslide disasters on mine slopes, and provides a scientific basis for the prevention and control of slope disasters in university open-pit mines. It is of great significance to reduce investment, reduce production costs, and ensure mining safety for large open-pit mine slopes and water conservancy slopes; at the same time, it is easy to operate, has high calculation efficiency, and has a wide range of application.

附图说明BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

图1是本发明的基于模糊综合评价法的大型露天矿山边坡滑坡灾害预警方法流程图。FIG1 is a flow chart of a large open-pit mine slope landslide disaster early warning method based on a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method according to the present invention.

具体实施方式DETAILED DESCRIPTION

下面结合附图对本发明作进一步说明。The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

参照图1，一种基于模糊综合评价法的大型露天矿山边坡滑坡灾害预警方法，包括以下步骤：Referring to FIG1 , a large-scale open-pit mine slope landslide disaster early warning method based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method comprises the following steps:

(1)在待预警大型露天矿山边坡上布置多探头微震监测仪、数字化摄影测量仪和分布式光纤锚索监测仪等监测仪器，监测矿山各级别边坡及关键结构面附近的微震、位移、变形和应力等多种信号；(1) Multi-probe microseismic monitoring instruments, digital photogrammetry instruments, and distributed fiber optic anchor monitoring instruments are deployed on the slopes of large open-pit mines to monitor microseismic, displacement, deformation, stress and other signals near the slopes of various levels and key structural surfaces of the mines;

(2)步骤(1)中的多种信号传输到信号汇总处理站，进行信号的汇总和预处理，剔除无用信号；(2) The various signals in step (1) are transmitted to a signal aggregation and processing station for aggregation and preprocessing of the signals to eliminate useless signals;

(3)通过信号通路，将经过预处理的多种信号传输到多功能信号转换器，生成光信号，并通过光纤通道传输到智能计算机中；(3) transmitting the pre-processed multiple signals to a multifunctional signal converter through a signal path, generating an optical signal, and transmitting the optical signal to an intelligent computer through an optical fiber channel;

(4)在智能计算机中进行信号识别与参数提取，选定八个参数指标 Ki(i＝1,2,…8)，组成多参量指标矩阵，八个指标包括Zmap值、活动标度ΔF、时间信息熵Qt、算法复杂性AC值、等效能级参数σH *、位移增速ΔS、变形量ε、下滑力FS；(4) Signal recognition and parameter extraction are performed in an intelligent computer, and eight parameter indicators K i (i=1, 2, ... 8) are selected to form a multi-parameter indicator matrix. The eight indicators include Z map value, activity scale ΔF, time information entropy Q t , algorithm complexity AC value, equivalent energy level parameter σ H * , displacement speed increase ΔS, deformation ε, and sliding force F S ;

(5)根据步骤(4)中八个指标的监测结果，分析其与矿山边坡滑坡灾害的关系，将指标分为正向指标、负向指标和双向指标，利用不用的算法将各指标分别进行归一化处理，(5) Based on the monitoring results of the eight indicators in step (4), the relationship between the indicators and the mine slope landslide disaster is analyzed, and the indicators are divided into positive indicators, negative indicators and bidirectional indicators. Different algorithms are used to normalize each indicator.

Figure BDA0002272471760000071
Figure BDA0002272471760000071

式中，ki为指标监测值序列中第i个值；kmax为指标监测值序列最大值；kmin为指标监测值序列最小值；k′i＝|ki-kavg|；k′max为ki'序列的最大值；kavg为指标监测值序列的平均值；Wherein, k i is the i-th value in the indicator monitoring value sequence; kmax is the maximum value of the indicator monitoring value sequence; kmin is the minimum value of the indicator monitoring value sequence; k′ i = |k i -k avg |; k′ max is the maximum value of the k i 'sequence; k avg is the average value of the indicator monitoring value sequence;

(6)利用统计学原理，分析本矿山及相似地质开采条件的大型露天矿山滑坡灾害数据，具体针对步骤(4)中的八个指标进行分析，计算各指标对滑坡灾害预警正确次数与应预警正确总次数的比值，确定各指标的权重值，(6) Analyze the landslide disaster data of this mine and large open-pit mines with similar geological mining conditions by using statistical principles. Specifically, analyze the eight indicators in step (4), calculate the ratio of the number of correct landslide disaster warnings to the total number of correct warnings, and determine the weight of each indicator.

Figure BDA0002272471760000072
Figure BDA0002272471760000072

式中，Ri为指第i个指标的权重，

Figure BDA0002272471760000074
为指第i个指标预警正确次数，
Figure BDA0002272471760000075
为指第 i个指标应预警正确总次数；In the formula, Ri refers to the weight of the i-th indicator,
Figure BDA0002272471760000074
is the number of correct warnings for the i-th indicator,
Figure BDA0002272471760000075
It refers to the total number of correct warnings for the i-th indicator;

(7)构建模糊评价矩阵，利用经过归一化处理的指标值与各指标的权重值，进行模糊运算与归一化处理，将八个指标融合为一个综合指标F综；(7) Construct a fuzzy evaluation matrix, use the normalized index values and the weight values of each index, perform fuzzy operations and normalization processing, and integrate the eight indexes into a comprehensive index F;

(8)将步骤(7)中的综合指标F综的数值实时传输到滑坡灾害预警仪中，建立露天矿山边坡滑坡灾害预警准则，如下，(8) The value of the comprehensive index F in step (7) is transmitted in real time to the landslide disaster early warning instrument to establish the open-pit mine slope landslide disaster early warning criteria as follows:

Figure BDA0002272471760000073
Figure BDA0002272471760000073

(9)重复步骤(6)～(8)，针对露天矿山总体边坡、组合台阶边坡、台阶边坡关键结构面尺寸的不同，建立不同的露天矿山边坡滑坡灾害预警准则，针对不同的滑坡灾害危险性，则需要采取相应的防治和治理措施。(9) Repeat steps (6) to (8) to establish different open-pit mine slope landslide disaster warning criteria according to the different sizes of the overall slope, combined step slope, and key structural surface of the step slope. According to the different landslide disaster risks, corresponding prevention and control measures need to be taken.

进一步，所述步骤(1)中，多种信号是指信号的属性，包括电信号、数字信号和光信号等。Furthermore, in step (1), the multiple signals refer to properties of signals, including electrical signals, digital signals, optical signals, etc.

所述步骤(2)中，无用信号是指噪音或者无法识别的信号。In the step (2), useless signals refer to noise or unrecognizable signals.

所述步骤(4)中，八个指标计算公式如下，In step (4), the eight index calculation formulas are as follows:

①Zmap：①Z map :

Figure BDA0002272471760000081
Figure BDA0002272471760000081

式中，

Figure BDA0002272471760000082
为整个时间区间上对所有平均震级样本
Figure BDA0002272471760000083
的算术平均值，是一个较为稳定的量，表征研究区域的背景特征；
Figure BDA0002272471760000084
为要考察的时间区段内样本平均震级样本
Figure BDA0002272471760000085
的算术平均值；σM和σm分别是两样本的标准差，无论是当Z>2.5，还是 Z<-2.5，都是小概率事件，然而滑坡灾害的发生也正是小概率事件，于是，取 |Z|＞2.5为异常临界值；In the formula,
Figure BDA0002272471760000082
is the average magnitude sample for the entire time interval
Figure BDA0002272471760000083
The arithmetic mean of is a relatively stable quantity, which characterizes the background characteristics of the study area;
Figure BDA0002272471760000084
is the average magnitude of the samples in the time period to be investigated
Figure BDA0002272471760000085
The arithmetic mean of | Z |>2.5 and | Z |>2.5 are the standard deviations of the two samples. Whether Z>2.5 or Z<-2.5, it is a low-probability event. However, the occurrence of landslide disaster is also a low-probability event. Therefore, |Z|>2.5 is taken as the abnormal critical value.

②活动标度ΔF：②Activity scale ΔF:

Figure BDA0002272471760000086
F0＝106.11+1.09M
Figure BDA0002272471760000086
F 0 = 10 6.11 + 1.09M

式中，T为天数，M为微震能级。强能量释放理论与微震活动标度成正比，即滑坡灾害出现之前出现高值异常；Where T is the number of days and M is the microseismic energy level. The strong energy release theory is proportional to the scale of microseismic activity, that is, high value anomalies appear before landslide disasters occur;

③时间信息熵Qt：③ Time information entropy Q t :

Figure BDA0002272471760000087
Figure BDA0002272471760000087

式中，n为某时间窗长的矿震事件总数；

Figure BDA0002272471760000088
ti为第i个矿震发生的时间，pi取值0～1之间。理论上，在滑坡灾害出现之前，熵值存在一个下降过程，其本质是微震能量空间分布的非均匀性增加；Where n is the total number of mine earthquake events in a certain time window;
Figure BDA0002272471760000088
ti is the time when the i-th mine earthquake occurs, and pi takes values between 0 and 1. Theoretically, before the landslide disaster occurs, there is a process of entropy decline, the essence of which is the increase of the non-uniformity of the spatial distribution of microseismic energy;

④算法复杂性AC值：④Algorithm complexity AC value:

AC＝lnn/(n·lnM)AC＝lnn/(n·lnM)

式中，n为某时间窗内能级变化次数；M为Mmax-Mmin+1。在滑坡灾害出现之前， AC值理论上应存在由高值异常向低值的转变；Where n is the number of energy level changes within a certain time window; M is M max -M min + 1. Before a landslide disaster occurs, the AC value should theoretically change from an abnormally high value to a low value;

⑤等效能级参数σH*⑤Equivalent energy level parameter σ H *

M＝lg E，

Figure BDA0002272471760000091
式中，m*为某时间窗内微震归一化能级，
Figure BDA0002272471760000092
为m*的平均归一化能级。在滑坡灾害出现之前，均存在σH*高值异常现象；M＝lg E，
Figure BDA0002272471760000091
Where m * is the normalized energy level of microseisms in a certain time window,
Figure BDA0002272471760000092
is the average normalized energy level of m * . Before the landslide disaster occurs, there is an abnormal high value of σ H *;

⑥位移增速ΔS：⑥Displacement speed increase ΔS:

位移增速ΔS是指边坡的位移增加速度，在滑坡灾害出现之前，ΔS有一个明显的增加现象；The displacement growth rate ΔS refers to the displacement increase rate of the slope. Before the landslide disaster occurs, ΔS has an obvious increase phenomenon;

⑦变形量ε：⑦Deformation ε:

变形量ε是指边坡岩体的变形量，在滑坡灾害出现之前，ε有一个明显的增加现象；The deformation ε refers to the deformation of the slope rock mass. Before the landslide disaster occurs, ε has an obvious increase phenomenon;

⑧下滑力FS：⑧ Sliding force F S ：

下滑力FS是指边坡岩体结构面上覆岩体的综合下滑力，来自于自重静载和爆破动载的叠加，在滑坡灾害出现之前，FS会明显增加，大于抗滑力。The sliding force FS refers to the comprehensive sliding force of the overlying rock mass on the slope rock structure surface, which comes from the superposition of deadweight static load and blasting dynamic load. Before the landslide disaster occurs, FS will increase significantly and be greater than the anti-sliding force.

所述步骤(5)中，正向指标是指：指标值越大，滑坡灾害发生可能性越大，负向指标是指：指标值越小，滑坡灾害发生可能性越大，双向指标是指：指标值的绝对值越大或越小，滑坡灾害发生可能性越大；In step (5), the positive index means that the larger the index value, the greater the possibility of landslide disaster; the negative index means that the smaller the index value, the greater the possibility of landslide disaster; the bidirectional index means that the larger or smaller the absolute value of the index value, the greater the possibility of landslide disaster;

本实施例的方法能解决大型露天矿山边坡滑坡灾害的监测预警难题，避免了庞大的监测数据导致的预警准则极复杂、数据利用不合理导致的预警指标正确率较低、忽略爆破动载的影响导致边坡安全系数过低、预警指标过多导致工作人员难以选择的缺点；模糊综合评价法适应复杂的露天矿山开采环境和滑坡灾害过程，能充分利用监测的数据；考虑矿山不同等级边坡滑坡灾害预警准则的协同性，避免了边坡防治过程中顾此失彼的现象；光纤通道通信容量大、传输距离远，抗电磁干扰、传输质量佳，光纤尺寸小、重量轻，便于铺设和运输，材料来源丰富，环境保护好，有利于节约有色金属铜，能有效降低信号的衰减；提高了矿山边坡滑坡灾害预警的准确性和科学性，为大学露天矿山边坡灾害防治提供科学依据。对于大型露天矿山边坡和水利边坡减少投资、降低生产成本、保证开采安全有着重要的意义；同时操作简便，计算效率高，适用范围较宽。The method of this embodiment can solve the monitoring and early warning problems of landslide disasters on the slopes of large open-pit mines, avoiding the problems of extremely complex early warning criteria caused by huge monitoring data, low accuracy of early warning indicators caused by unreasonable data utilization, too low safety factor of slopes caused by ignoring the impact of blasting dynamic load, and too many early warning indicators causing difficulty for staff to choose; the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is suitable for complex open-pit mining environment and landslide disaster process, and can make full use of the monitored data; the synergy of early warning criteria for landslide disasters on slopes of different levels in mines is considered, avoiding the phenomenon of losing one thing while taking care of another in the process of slope prevention and control; the optical fiber channel has large communication capacity, long transmission distance, anti-electromagnetic interference, good transmission quality, small size and light weight of optical fiber, easy to lay and transport, rich material sources, good environmental protection, conducive to saving non-ferrous metal copper, and can effectively reduce signal attenuation; it improves the accuracy and scientificity of early warning of landslide disasters on mine slopes, and provides a scientific basis for the prevention and control of slope disasters in university open-pit mines. It is of great significance to reduce investment, reduce production costs and ensure mining safety for large open-pit mine slopes and water conservancy slopes; at the same time, it is easy to operate, has high calculation efficiency and a wide range of application.

Claims (5)

1. A large-scale surface mine slope landslide hazard early warning method based on a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
(1) Arranging a multi-probe microseismic monitor, a digital photographic measuring instrument and a distributed optical fiber anchor cable monitor on a slope of a large-scale surface mine to be pre-warned, and monitoring microseismic, displacement, deformation and stress signals near slopes of various levels and key structural surfaces of the mine;
(2) Transmitting various signals in the step (1) to a signal summarizing processing station for summarizing and preprocessing the signals and eliminating useless signals;
(3) Transmitting the preprocessed signals to a multifunctional signal converter through a signal path, generating optical signals, and transmitting the optical signals to an intelligent computer through an optical fiber channel;
(4) Signal recognition and parameter extraction are carried out in an intelligent computer, and eight parameter indexes K are selected i (i=1, 2, …) to form a multi-parameter index matrix, eight indices including Z map Value, activity Scale ΔF, temporal information entropy Q t Algorithm complexity AC value, equivalent energy level parameter sigma H * Displacement acceleration DeltaS, deformation epsilon and sliding force F S ；
(5) Analyzing the relation between the eight indexes and the mine slope landslide disaster according to the monitoring results of the eight indexes in the step (4), dividing the indexes into a positive index, a negative index and a bidirectional index, respectively carrying out normalization processing on the indexes by using an unused algorithm,
Figure FDA0002272471750000011
wherein k is i An ith value in the index monitoring value sequence; k (k) max The maximum value of the index monitoring value sequence is the maximum value; k (k) min The minimum value of the index monitoring value sequence is the minimum value; k' i ＝|k i -k avg |；k' max For k' i The maximum value of the sequence; k (k) avg The average value of the index monitoring value sequence;
(6) Analyzing landslide disaster data of the large-scale surface mine under the mining condition of the mine and similar geology by utilizing a statistical principle, specifically analyzing eight indexes in the step (4), calculating the ratio of the correct number of landslide disaster early warning to the total number of times of the correct early warning of each index, determining the weight value of each index,
Figure FDA0002272471750000012
wherein R is i To refer to the weight of the i-th index,
Figure FDA0002272471750000013
early warning the correct times for indicating the ith index, < + >>
Figure FDA0002272471750000014
The correct total number of times should be pre-warned for indicating the ith index;
(7) Constructing a fuzzy evaluation matrix, performing fuzzy operation and normalization processing by using the normalized index values and the weight values of the indexes, and fusing eight indexes into one comprehensive index F Heald ；
(8) Combining the comprehensive index F in the step (7) Heald The numerical value of (2) is transmitted to a landslide disaster early warning instrument in real time, and a landslide disaster early warning rule of the surface mine slope is established as follows,
Figure FDA0002272471750000015
(9) Repeating the steps (6) - (8), establishing different landslide hazard early warning criteria of the surface mine slope according to different sizes of key structural surfaces of the surface mine overall slope, the combined step slope and the step slope, and adopting corresponding prevention and treatment measures according to different landslide hazard dangers.
2. The method for early warning landslide hazard of large surface mine based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method as set forth in claim 1, wherein in the step (1), the plurality of signals refer to attributes of signals including electric signals, digital signals and optical signals.
3. The method for early warning of landslide hazard of large surface mine based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method as set forth in claim 1 or 2, wherein in said step (2), the useless signal is noise or unidentifiable signal.
4. The method for early warning of landslide hazard of large surface mine based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method as set forth in claim 1 or 2, wherein in the step (4), eight index calculation formulas are as follows,
①Z map ：
Figure FDA0002272471750000021
in the method, in the process of the invention,
Figure FDA0002272471750000022
for all mean magnitude samples over the entire time interval +.>
Figure FDA0002272471750000023
Is a relatively stable quantity, and characterizes the background characteristics of the research area;
Figure FDA0002272471750000024
Mean magnitude sample for samples in the time segment to be examined +.>
Figure FDA0002272471750000025
Arithmetic mean of (2); sigma (sigma) M Sum sigma m Standard deviation of two samples, respectively, whether Z>2.5, also Z<2.5, which are all small probability events, however, the occurrence of landslide disasters is also a small probability event, and thus |Z| > 2.5 is taken as an abnormal critical value;
(2) activity scale Δf:
Figure FDA0002272471750000029
F 0 ＝10 6.11+1.09M
wherein T is the number of days, M is the microseismic energy level, and the strong energy release theory is in direct proportion to the microseismic activity scale, namely, high value abnormality occurs before landslide disaster occurs;
(3) entropy of time information Q t ：
Figure FDA0002272471750000026
Wherein n is the total number of mine earthquake events with a certain time window length;
Figure FDA0002272471750000027
t i for the time of occurrence of the ith mine earthquake, p i The value is between 0 and 1; theoretically, before landslide hazard occurs, there is a decline process of entropy value, which is essentially that the non-uniformity of microseismic energy spatial distribution increases;
(4) algorithm complexity AC value:
AC＝ln n/(n·ln M)
wherein n is the number of energy level changes in a certain time window; m is M max -M min +1, before landslide hazard occurs, there should theoretically be a transition from a high value anomaly to a low value for the AC value;
(5) equivalent performance level parameter sigma H *
M＝lg E，
Figure FDA0002272471750000028
Wherein m is * Normalized energy level for microseismic over a certain time window,
Figure FDA0002272471750000031
is m * Is in the presence of sigma before landslide hazard occurs H * High value anomaly; />
(6) Displacement acceleration Δs:
the displacement acceleration delta S refers to the displacement increasing speed of the side slope, and the delta S has an obvious increasing phenomenon before landslide disasters occur;
(7) deformation amount ε:
the deformation epsilon refers to the deformation of the slope rock mass, and the epsilon has a remarkable increase phenomenon before landslide disasters occur;
(8) sliding force F S ：
Sliding force F S Refers to the comprehensive sliding force of the overlying rock mass on the structural surface of the rock mass of the side slope, and comes from the superposition of dead weight static load and blasting dynamic load, before landslide disaster occurs, F S Can be obviously increased and is larger than the anti-skid force.
5. The method for early warning of landslide hazard of large surface mine based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method as set forth in claim 1 or 2, wherein in the step (5), the forward index means: the larger the index value is, the larger the possibility of landslide hazard occurrence is, and the negative index means: the smaller the index value is, the greater the possibility of landslide hazard occurrence is, and the bidirectional index is: the larger or smaller the absolute value of the index value, the greater the possibility of occurrence of landslide hazard.
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