CN110866661A - Risk quantitative management method of petrochemical production process - Google Patents
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Abstract
The embodiment of the invention provides a risk quantitative management method of a petrochemical production process, belonging to the technical field of petrochemical enterprise safety management, and the method comprises the following steps: the subordinate unit safety management personnel research and make a unit risk list comprising the collected risk elements; the subordinate unit terminal uploads the unit risk list to the server; the server evaluates accident consequences corresponding to the dangerous events and accident frequency corresponding to the accident consequences; the server determines a first risk score corresponding to the petrochemical production process according to the accident consequence corresponding to each evaluated dangerous event and the accident frequency corresponding to the accident consequence; and managing the petrochemical production process based on the first risk score. Therefore, the risk score of the petrochemical production process is determined by the data of the two dimensions evaluated on the dangerous event, and the petrochemical safety management personnel can be more scientifically guided to carry out the risk management work.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of safety management of petrochemical enterprises, in particular to a risk quantification management method of a petrochemical production process.
Background
With the rapid development of the petrochemical industry in China, fire and explosion accidents happen at any time, and great threat is brought to the production and life of human beings. Therefore, the risk analysis and risk assessment are carried out on the petrochemical device, a basis can be provided for petrochemical enterprises to take effective measures to avoid or reduce accidents, the essential safety of the production process of the enterprises is promoted, and the production accidents of the petrochemical enterprises are reduced.
Risk assessment and risk management of petrochemical plant processes are mainly divided into qualitative and quantitative modes. The qualitative evaluation is mostly based on standard specifications, the implementation difficulty is low, but scientific basis is lacked, and the method cannot be applied to all risk event types; quantification is currently used based on evaluation or simulation of accident consequences, but it cannot be correlated with dangerous events of petrochemical plant processes and is focused on post-accident management and analysis, resulting in scientifically inadequate risk management and prevention of petrochemical plants.
Disclosure of Invention
The embodiment of the invention aims to provide a risk quantification management method for a petrochemical production process, which is used for quantifying the result evaluation of a dangerous event on the process risk of a petrochemical device, so as to more effectively guide petrochemical security management personnel to carry out risk management and control work.
In order to achieve the above object, an embodiment of the present invention provides a risk quantification management method for a petrochemical production process, including: the safety management personnel of subordinate units research and collect risk elements existing in the petrochemical production process of subordinate units and make a unit risk list comprising the collected risk elements, wherein the risk elements comprise control index deviation items which are related to the petrochemical production process and can cause chemical accidents; the subordinate unit terminal uploads the unit risk list to a server; the server determines the dangerous events corresponding to the risk elements and evaluates accident consequences corresponding to the dangerous events and accident frequency corresponding to the accident consequences; the server determines a first risk score corresponding to the petrochemical production process according to the accident consequence corresponding to each evaluated dangerous event and the accident frequency corresponding to the accident consequence; and managing the petrochemical production process based on the first risk score.
By the technical scheme, subordinate unit safety management personnel obtain a unit risk list containing risk elements through research and upload the risk list to the server; and then, determining accident consequences caused by the dangerous events corresponding to the risk elements in the risk list and accident frequency corresponding to the accident consequences by the server, and determining the risk score of the petrochemical production process according to the two-dimensional data evaluated on the dangerous events, so that the risk score pays attention to the frequency of the accidents and the severity of the accident consequences under the action of the dangerous events of the petrochemical production process, and can scientifically guide petrochemical security management personnel to carry out risk management work.
Additional features and advantages of embodiments of the invention will be set forth in the detailed description which follows.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings, which are included to provide a further understanding of the embodiments of the invention and are incorporated in and constitute a part of this specification, illustrate embodiments of the invention and together with the description serve to explain the embodiments of the invention without limiting the embodiments of the invention. In the drawings:
FIG. 1 is a schematic system architecture diagram of a risk quantification management method for a petrochemical production process, to which an embodiment of the present invention is applied;
FIG. 2 is a flow chart of a risk quantification management method for a petrochemical production process according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3A is a schematic diagram of a risk quantification scoring table as used in an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3B is a schematic diagram of a socially acceptable risk standard coordinate system for a hazardous chemical production and storage device in which an embodiment of the present invention is applied;
FIG. 4 is a flow chart of a preferred embodiment of a method for risk quantification management of a petrochemical production process according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 5 illustrates a screenshot of a terminal user interface of a terminal to which the risk quantification management method for a petrochemical production process according to an embodiment of the present invention is applied;
fig. 6A illustrates a risk geographical distribution thermodynamic diagram to which the risk quantification management method of the petrochemical production process according to the embodiment of the present invention is applied;
FIG. 6B illustrates a screenshot of a terminal user interface of a terminal applying the risk quantification management method for a petrochemical production process according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 7 illustrates a screenshot of a terminal user interface of a terminal applying the risk quantification management method for a petrochemical production process according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 8 illustrates a screenshot of a terminal user interface of a terminal applying the risk quantification management method for a petrochemical production process according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 9A illustrates a screenshot of a terminal user interface of a terminal applying the risk quantification management method for a petrochemical production process according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 9B illustrates a screenshot of a terminal user interface of a terminal applying the risk quantification management method for a petrochemical production process according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 10 is a functional structural framework diagram of a server;
FIG. 11A illustrates a screenshot of a terminal user interface of a terminal applying the risk quantification management method for a petrochemical production process according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 11B illustrates a screenshot of a terminal user interface of a terminal applying the risk quantification management method for a petrochemical production process according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 11C is a screenshot of a terminal user interface of a terminal applying the risk quantification management method for a petrochemical production process according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 12 illustrates a screenshot of a terminal user interface of a terminal applying the risk quantification management method for a petrochemical production process according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 13 illustrates a screenshot of a terminal user interface of a terminal applying the risk quantification management method for a petrochemical production process according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 14 illustrates a screenshot of a terminal user interface of a terminal applying the risk quantification management method for a petrochemical production process according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 15 is a screenshot of a terminal user interface of a terminal to which the risk quantification management method for a petrochemical production process according to the embodiment of the present invention is applied.
Detailed Description
The following detailed description of embodiments of the invention refers to the accompanying drawings. It should be understood that the detailed description and specific examples, while indicating embodiments of the invention, are given by way of illustration and explanation only, not limitation.
Referring to fig. 1, a system architecture 10 for applying the risk quantification management method for the petrochemical production process according to the embodiment of the present invention is shown, and includes a subordinate unit terminal 101, an upper level terminal 102 and a server 103, where the subordinate unit terminal 101 and the upper level terminal 102 are both connected to a server 104 through a router company intranet to form a risk management platform, and the server 103 may respectively give corresponding account and port access and application use rights to the subordinate unit terminal 101, the upper level terminal 102 and the group terminal 103; it should be noted that the upper terminal 102 may be a terminal including multiple hierarchies, such as an enterprise terminal, a group terminal, and the like, and may also be a part of the network. Moreover, the server 103, the subordinate unit terminal 101 and the upper terminal 102 form a risk quantitative management platform, so that the server 103 can communicate with the subordinate unit terminal 101 to perform quantitative evaluation on the petrochemical production process of the subordinate unit, and data circulation between the upper terminal 102 and the subordinate unit terminal 101 can be realized, thereby realizing the cooperative management of risks.
As shown in fig. 2, a risk quantification management method for a petrochemical production process according to an embodiment of the present invention includes:
s11, the safety manager of the subordinate unit investigates and collects risk elements existing in the petrochemical production process of the subordinate unit and makes a unit risk list comprising the collected risk elements, wherein the risk elements comprise petrochemical equipment control index deviation items and/or other items which are adopted in the petrochemical production process and can cause production accidents, such as equipment units adopted by the process; specifically, if the petrochemical production process device is divided into a plurality of equipment units, and a plurality of nodes are arranged below the equipment units, the risk elements may be the dangerous events corresponding to all nodes detailed to the corresponding process device; as an example, configuring a sulfur recovery plant unit under a fixed bed reforming device, and providing a node acid gas flare under the sulfur recovery plant unit, where descriptions of multiple dangerous events exist for the node acid gas flare (for example, flare combustion under accident conditions), may be by integrating information of the dangerous events to form corresponding risk elements.
Specifically, the method includes that a safety manager of a subordinate unit analyzes risk elements existing in a production process of the subordinate unit through a safety check list, a brainstorming (collective discussion), an accident case discussion and a major risk quick Scan (SCM), calculates control index deviation items and equipment unit items of petrochemical equipment or nodes which may cause production accidents, and arranges the control index deviation items and the equipment unit items into a unit risk list; as an example, in a fixed bed reforming process or apparatus, the adopted petrochemical equipment may include a sulfur recovery equipment, and the corresponding control index may be a control deviation term of each component unit under the sulfur recovery equipment, for example, the sulfur recovery equipment may be a control deviation term including a node tail gas heater, a chlorination reduction reactor, a steam generator and quench tower, an absorption tower, and the like, and the control deviation term may specifically be, for example, a gas inlet absorption tower temperature, a quench tower top gas phase temperature, a steam generator outlet temperature, and the like.
And S12, uploading the unit risk list to a server by the subordinate unit terminal.
Specifically, subordinate security managers may log in the risk management platform and upload the unit risk list to the server.
S13, the server determines the dangerous events corresponding to the risk elements and evaluates the accident consequences corresponding to the dangerous events and the accident frequency corresponding to the accident consequences.
Specifically, the server counts the plurality of dangerous events under the node based on the dangerous events corresponding to the risk elements, for example, an event repository, a knowledge base and a database are configured in advance in the server, wherein the event repository is provided with a plurality of groups of relations between the control risk elements and the dangerous events, and accident occurrence frequencies corresponding to a plurality of initial events are stored in the knowledge base and the database. The server may be a library of query events to determine the risk events that result in risk elements (e.g., control index bias terms); as an alternative, it is also possible to include the dangerous event directly in the risk element without the event library. In addition, the server calls a risk quantitative analysis tool and determines accident consequences corresponding to each dangerous event under the node and risk frequency (or risk probability) corresponding to the accident consequences by combining a database and a knowledge base, so that a plurality of equipment units are configured under the process device, a plurality of nodes are distributed under the equipment units, and each dangerous event is associated with the corresponding node; illustratively, a risk quantitative analysis tool such as a HAZOP analysis tool, a LOPA analysis tool, a SIL analysis tool and a QRA tool is configured in the server, and the accident consequence and the occurrence frequency corresponding to the event are quantitatively calculated by calling the analysis tool. As an example, the matrix risk level (for example, a-G level) of all dangerous events in a node may be subjected to risk probability (for example, occurrence frequency) calculation through HAZOP analysis, so as to obtain probability values of accidents corresponding to different levels of the node, where the HAZOP analysis method is to perform semi-quantitative process safety evaluation on all dangerous events of the process safety of the node, and calculate corresponding risk occurrence probability for a critical index.
In some embodiments, data in the database and the knowledge base are applied in the operation process of an analysis tool in the petrochemical enterprise risk quantification management platform, so that high-precision risk quantitative analysis is realized. In particular, the data in the database and knowledge base may be one or more of the following: reliability data, verification base data and audit guide data of various devices; the reliability data may be, among other things, HAZOP/LOPA reliability data (which includes general failure rate data, protective layer reliability data, general device reliability data, enterprise reliability data, etc.), SIL verification base data (which includes safety device reliability certification data, etc.), and/or audit trail data (which includes single device audit trail, process audit trail, accident case library, etc.). The server invokes an analysis tool from a library of analysis tools, wherein the analysis tools in the library of invoked analysis tools may correspond to reliability data, such as a HAZOP analysis tool, a LOPA analysis tool, a SIL analysis tool, and a QRA tool. In addition, the use authority for different risk analysis tools can be opened for different users. Further, the server analyzes risk elements in the unit risk list based on the analysis support data and the analysis tool so as to realize accident consequence grading and occurrence probability verification of the process risk. Because the risk analysis tools circulated in the market at present are generated based on foreign risk data and examination standards, the risk analysis tools are not suitable for domestic petrochemical enterprises; in view of this, the data quantitatively analyzed in the database and the knowledge base may include reliability data and device inspection guidelines (e.g., meeting the process standard requirements of the domestic petrochemical enterprise) common to the domestic petrochemical enterprise, and open a call interface for an analysis tool, thereby making it more suitable for the domestic petrochemical enterprise than a risk analysis tool in the related art.
S14, the server determines a first risk score corresponding to the petrochemical production process according to the accident consequence corresponding to each evaluated dangerous event and the accident frequency corresponding to the accident consequence.
Specifically, the method may include counting equipment units included in the petrochemical production process and nodes included in the equipment units, acquiring accident consequences corresponding to all the nodes in the petrochemical production process and risk frequencies corresponding to the accident consequences, and determining a first risk score corresponding to the petrochemical production process through cumulative calculation.
Illustratively, the equipment unit or device process overall probability risk index can be estimated by performing cumulative calculation on the probability calculation results of each node and performing statistical analysis on different risk levels according to a total probability formula, thereby combining the risk values of each node. Alternatively or additionally, a HAZOP analysis may be performed on all the dangerous events in all nodes under the equipment unit, so as to semi-quantitatively analyze the accident consequence level corresponding to the unit and the corresponding risk probability or frequency.
S15, managing the petrochemical production process based on the first risk score.
In some embodiments, the server may assign a corresponding color to the petrochemical production process by referring to a risk color comparison table in combination with the first risk score, and display the color-labeled first risk score on a user interface of the terminal, wherein the risk color comparison table has a plurality of colors, and each color is used for indicating a risk score group of the same risk level. For example, as shown in fig. 3A, red corresponds to the highest risk level grouping, blue corresponds to the weakest risk level wind resistance, and as shown in fig. 7, 9B, 11A, and 14, the color-labeled risk score (e.g., C4 or C5) may be displayed on the user interface of the terminal. Therefore, the risk level corresponding to the process is displayed to safety management personnel more intuitively. As shown in fig. 3A, a risk color comparison table is shown, in which a plurality of groups of mapping relationships among accident consequence grades, accident occurrence probabilities and risk scores are recorded, the accident consequence grades are divided into seven grades from light to heavy, the occurrence probabilities are classified into eight grades from 1 to 8 from low to high according to the occurrence frequency of the consequences, and the corresponding risk scores are obtained by comprehensively considering two dimensions of the accident consequence grades and the occurrence frequency of the consequences, wherein the risk scores comprise score intervals from 1 to 200 selected from low risk to high risk. If the occurrence frequency of the later fruits is low (grade 1), the corresponding risk score is still not high (10 points) even if the consequence grade is heavy (grade F); and when the occurrence frequency of the later fruits is higher (level 7), the corresponding risk score is higher (23 points) even if the consequence grade is general (level C), so that the risk score can reflect the risk state of the petrochemical production process more accurately and objectively, and the petrochemical safety manager can be quantitatively guided to carry out risk management and control work on the petrochemical production process. When determining the risk score corresponding to the petrochemical production process, the accident consequences and the accident frequency corresponding to all dangerous events in the petrochemical production process can be counted to comprehensively determine the risk score corresponding to the petrochemical production process. In some preferred embodiments, the accident consequences and the accident frequency corresponding to the equipment units in the production process can be analyzed to determine the risk scores of the equipment units in the process, so that safety management personnel can more intuitively and conveniently find the objects needing important maintenance in the process.
In some embodiments, the risk color look-up table shown in fig. 3A may be replaced with a dangerous chemical production, storage device socially acceptable risk standard as shown in fig. 3B, which may be a threshold of an accident cumulative frequency standard established to indicate that the probability of occurrence of a cluster death group injury accident to be avoided exceeds the acceptable range for society and the public; in this social acceptable risk standard coordinate system, the horizontal axis represents the number (in) of social deaths around the device, and the vertical axis represents the cumulative frequency (in years) of occurrence of the deaths over time. Specifically, the corresponding probability risk index may be determined according to the accident consequence grade and the occurrence frequency obtained in S13, a dangerous event reliability model related to the equipment unit is established based on the probability risk index, and an overall reliability model of the process plant is established according to the dangerous event reliability model of the equipment unit; then, calculating the overall risk value of the device to statistically analyze the parameters, and respectively calculating the occurrence rate of the risk in the same grade and the prediction interval value of the consequence severity by adopting a statistical comparison analysis method; then, carrying out value-taking rationality analysis according to the prediction result, wherein the rationality analysis comprises project analysis which can cause errors of control indexes in the process device, can be various error items which are stored in advance by the server and aim at different process types and can correspond to influence coefficients or compensation values aiming at the process device, for example, obtaining the error items aiming at petrochemical production processes, analyzing a correction value corresponding to the risk score based on the rationality of the error items (which can correspond to specific influence coefficients or compensation values), and then determining the distribution condition of the correction value of the risk score on a socially acceptable risk standard coordinate system; then, the distribution of the device process risk correction values on the coordinate system is obtained by comparing with the socially acceptable risk standard as shown in fig. 3B, for example, the compensation values or the influence coefficients corresponding to the error terms are combined with the risk scores of the prediction results, so as to obtain the corresponding correction values of the distribution of the process device risk values.
In the embodiment of the invention, the risk scores of equipment units and device processes are obtained by semi-quantitatively calculating the node risks and carrying out cumulative calculation and rapid grading, the system evaluation of the occurrence probability and consequences of events starting from device risk events is realized, the unified standard and assignment evaluation are carried out on the device risks, and the transverse comparison of the risks among the same device types and the longitudinal comparison of the management effect on the device events are realized.
In order to facilitate the higher-level unit to perform hierarchical gradient management and control on the risk of the lower-level unit, the risk management and control of the group, the enterprise and the subordinate unit may be associated through the server. Specifically, after the server obtains the risk score for the unit risk list, the process shown in fig. 4 is executed:
s41, when the risk score exceeds a preset first risk threshold value, the server sends the unit risk list to the enterprise terminal; for example, the unit risk list may be forwarded to a port of an account corresponding to the enterprise terminal, so that the security manager can refer to the unit risk list when logging in the platform through the enterprise terminal.
And S42, optimizing and perfecting the risk elements in the unit risk list by professional safety subcommittees of the enterprise organization to form the enterprise risk list. Therefore, the risk elements are improved by the experts of the enterprise level in the risk list, so that the enterprise risk list is optimized and improved.
And S43, uploading the enterprise risk list to the server by the enterprise terminal.
And S44, the server reevaluates the second risk score corresponding to the petrochemical production process based on the risk elements in the enterprise risk list.
For specific details of the risk score corresponding to the risk element in the server evaluation enterprise risk list, reference may be made to the above or the following description for other risk lists, which is not repeated herein. It is understood that the second risk score may be different from the first risk score due to the optimization and refinement of the risk elements of the risk list.
And S45, managing the petrochemical production process of the subordinate units based on the second risk score.
In particular, it may be that when the second risk score is higher, for example when it exceeds a set threshold, the petrochemical production process of the subordinate unit is managed; the management operation may be performed by an administrator, may be supervised by a server, or may be a synergistic action of the manual management and the server supervision management, which all fall within the scope of the present invention. As an example, on the one hand, it may be that the enterprises implement the corresponding risk monitoring leaders and risk reduction plans according to the process characteristics of the petrochemical production process; on the other hand, it may also be that a risk suggestion library is configured in advance in the server, in which a plurality of sets of correspondence relationships between the corrective suggestion measures and the risk elements are stored, so that the corrective suggestion measures corresponding to the risk elements in the petrochemical production process are determined by the server based on the risk suggestion library, and the subordinate unit terminals access the server to obtain the corrective suggestion measures, wherein the corrective suggestion measures may be refined to the improvement operations for each unit or node. In addition, the implementation processes of the two methods can be integrated to realize man-machine cooperative management and control risks, so that the risk of the petrochemical production process can be reduced to a greater extent.
Further, after the subordinate unit terminal accesses the server to obtain the rectification suggestion measure, the server may also issue the rectification task for the subordinate unit terminal according to the rectification suggestion measure, for example, the server may push the rectification task to a port corresponding to the subordinate unit terminal, so that the rectification task can be viewed when the subordinate unit terminal logs in the risk management platform to dynamically urge the subordinate unit to implement the risk rectification in time. As shown in fig. 5, the rectification task includes suggested measures, suggested types, implementation specialties, completion time, and the like, and the subordinate unit terminal uploads a process rectification condition corresponding to the rectification task to the server, where the process rectification condition indicates the completion condition of the subordinate unit security manager with respect to the rectification suggested measures, such as the time for the subordinate unit to complete the rectification measures, and the reason for not completing the rectification measures. The server further shares the completion condition of the rectification task to higher-level units such as enterprises or groups, so that the enterprise terminals or group terminals can acquire the process rectification condition when accessing the server, thereby realizing man-machine combination and dynamic supervision and promotion of process risk rectification.
And S46, when the second risk score exceeds a preset second risk threshold value, the server sends the enterprise risk list to the group terminal, wherein the second risk threshold value is larger than the first risk threshold value.
And S47, optimizing and perfecting risk elements in the enterprise risk list by HSE committee of the group organization group company to form a group risk list.
And S48, the group terminal uploads the group risk list to the server so that the server can perform full quantitative risk assessment on the group risk list.
Therefore, when the risk of the petrochemical production process is seriously out of standard (for example, the risk is over a second risk threshold), the enterprise risk list can be sent to the group terminal, so that the group can control the risk which is seriously out of standard, and the trapezoidal risk control of a 'second-level unit-enterprise-group' type is realized. Preferably, the group company can confirm the responsibility leadership and the responsibility scope of the corresponding enterprise, and the server calls a QRA analysis tool and carries out Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) on the group risk list by means of data support of a knowledge base so as to construct a typical accident scene and a corresponding plan thereof.
In some preferred embodiments, as shown in fig. 6A, the server marks corresponding colors for the subordinate units on the electronic map according to one or more of the first risk score, the second risk score and the third risk score, where the types of the marked colors uniquely correspond to the risk score intervals, and red corresponds to high risk, green corresponds to low risk, etc., and for example, the risk perspective maps corresponding to the respective risk scores allocated to users with different authorities (for example, the first risk score and the second risk score are allocated respectively), and also the risk perspective maps corresponding to the shared same risk score (for example, all share the first risk score) may also belong to the protection scope of the present invention. This makes it possible to more intuitively display the risk distribution area of the subordinate unit.
In addition, it is also possible to quantitatively compare the process risk scores of different units, such as the histogram shown in fig. 6B, so that the enterprise or the superior unit can find the risk comparison in the petrochemical production process of the subordinate units (a-F), wherein it is also possible to set a risk average line to intuitively show which subordinate units should take measures for the process unit (such as the sulfur recovery unit shown in fig. 6B).
In some preferred embodiments, the server may predict the effect that the enterprise would have if it were to modify the process according to the modification recommended by the server through big data analysis (e.g., by means of a neural network model, etc.) based on the knowledge base and the case database, as shown in fig. 7, which shows the change in risk score that the process plant can bring before and after taking corrective advice measures, wherein subordinate units (A, E and F units) which are obvious in change before and after the modification are used for enabling the policeman to have more power to implement the process modification according to the modification proposal, and common units (such as C units) are changed before and after the modification, whether other corrective measures can be adopted or not should be considered, for example, the subordinate units or the enterprise security management personnel can organize meetings to discuss the corresponding solutions, and the solutions can also play a role of supervision. Preferably, as shown in FIG. 8, a model Boe-tie (presented in bowtie) generated for risk management and action based on the rectification task, including failure factors, control measures, risk causes, precautions, mitigation measures, and risk consequences associated with overhead events, such as temperatures leading to dangerous events, intuitively alerts the security officer to take the measures.
In a preferred implementation manner of the embodiment of the present invention, the server may further select a target equipment unit or a target node (e.g., each unit or node under the process) from the risk list, determine an effective risk score and a failure risk score corresponding to the target equipment unit or the target node when the hazardous event is effective and failed, respectively, and personalize and manage the equipment units or nodes under the petrochemical production process based on the effective risk score and the failure risk score, which may be that the server generates a personalized management policy for each equipment unit or node based on the effective risk score and the failure risk score, for example, the detection frequency for some equipment units or nodes should be increased appropriately. Therefore, the influence of the petrochemical process on the risk score of the petrochemical process before and after the petrochemical process takes effect or fails under a certain equipment unit or node (such as a control index deviation item) can be calculated, the effect or the failure of the risk event corresponding to the risk element in the risk list (which can be the risk element of the petrochemical process in a unit risk list, an enterprise risk list or a group risk list) can be selected by a user or a machine at will, and the risk score under the condition of taking effect and failure can be calculated respectively. As shown in fig. 9A, in the sulfur recovery process apparatus, there are equipment units (such as a tail gas incineration equipment unit, a reduction absorption unit, and a liquid sulfur storage and vulcanization molding unit, the risk color is unchanged) which do not affect the risk score of the process before and after failure, and also there are equipment units (such as a CLAUS sulfur production unit, the risk color changes significantly) which affect the risk score of the process before and after failure, so as to assist the following unit security personnel to more accurately find the key objects of risk management in the process, pay more attention to the dangerous events under the unit or node, and more efficiently implement risk control on the process to ensure the process safety.
In some preferred embodiments, as shown in fig. 9B, the initial risk score, the risk score after the existing measure is adopted, and the risk score after the existing measure and the rectification suggestion measure of the petrochemical production process under the risk event corresponding to the risk element are quantitatively shown, for example, in 4 risk events with low gas air flow corresponding to the risk element, the initial risk score corresponding to the main fan fault stop, the combustion air line fast cut and the combustion air regulating valve is C7 (accident consequence grade is C, the occurrence frequency is 7, the risk color is marked with orange), the risk score after the risk events with numbers 1 and 2 after the existing measure is implemented is C4 (the risk color is marked with blue), and the risk score after the existing measure and the rectification suggestion measure are implemented, so as to intuitively know the influence of the rectification of the risk event under the risk element on the risk score, to further prompt the security personnel to maintain the existing measures or to promote the whole renovation measures.
Fig. 10 shows a functional structural framework of a server, wherein the server comprises a basic data layer, an analysis tool layer, a risk data management layer and a risk display layer, identification and quantitative evaluation of risks are realized based on cooperation of the basic data layer and the analysis tool, then statistical analysis and management of risks are realized based on the risk data management layer, and then risk monitoring is carried out based on the risk display layer. The HAZOP/LOPA analysis tool, the SIL analysis tool, the Bow-tie analysis tool and the like are applied to the analysis tool layer, the basic data layer provides data support for the analysis tool in the analysis tool layer, the HAZOP/LOPA reliability data, the SIL verification basic database, the examination guide database and the like of various devices can be included, the integrated application of the HAZOP/LOPA/SIL technology can be realized, knowledge bases such as a matched device/facility examination guide, a single device examination key point, an accident event case and the like are included, the reliability database of various devices is arranged in the basic database, the accuracy and the uniformity of evaluation are guaranteed, and enterprises are assisted to carry out high-quality and systematic process risk evaluation. In addition, through the risk data management layer and the risk display layer, enterprise risk statistical analysis and risk quantitative comparison are achieved, risk change after the protective layer fails is calculated, the risk rectification and closing process is tracked, and risk control is guaranteed. Specifically, the server can calculate and predict accident consequences corresponding to the risk elements in the risk list of the petrochemical production process and occurrence frequency of the accident consequences, and then query the risk score quantization table shown in fig. 3A or 3B, so as to obtain the risk score corresponding to the petrochemical production process. When the server calculates the accident consequence of the petrochemical production process and the occurrence frequency corresponding to the accident consequence, it may analyze the accident consequence and the occurrence frequency corresponding to the dangerous event under the node based on the risk analysis tool (e.g., HAZOP/LOPA analysis tool), then construct an accident tree based on the dependency relationship among the process devices, the equipment units and the nodes, and may obtain the accident tree and the occurrence frequency corresponding to the process devices by means of multiplication. For example, the accident consequence occurrence frequency of the equipment unit corresponding to the initial dangerous event may be determined by:
wherein i represents the initial hazard event, j represents the node number of the equipment unit,
indicating the frequency of occurrence of accident consequences for the equipment unit,
indicating the frequency of occurrence of initial dangerous events, and PFDijIndicating the frequency of failure of each node under the unit of equipment. Similarly, the accident consequence occurrence frequency of the device process can be further calculated according to the equipment units.
Therefore, the server may analyze each dangerous event corresponding to the risk element, calculate the accident caused by each dangerous event, analyze the failure frequency corresponding to each equipment unit protection layer or node protection layer of the process apparatus, and determine the consequence level and occurrence frequency corresponding to the petrochemical process by combining the occurrence frequency of each initial dangerous event and the failure frequency of each protection layer of the process.
As shown in fig. 11A, the frequency of occurrence of a dangerous event (small amount of acidic gas flow) is shown (it is shown in a box beside the reason box). Regarding the frequency of the initial dangerous event, and the failure frequency of the protective layer of various devices can be found from the knowledge base, as shown in fig. 12, which shows the query result in the "initial event simplified frequency database" under the knowledge base, wherein the initial event is "land hydrocarbon leakage", and then the frequency of the initial event is shown to be 0.0001 times/(K.a), and also the source of the frequency value and the method for ensuring the effectiveness thereof can be shown.
The knowledge base in the embodiment of the present invention may store failure frequencies of various equipment units or nodes in different failure modes, and specifically, may store failure frequencies of 7 large types of 738 of common process equipment in different failure modes. See fig. 13, which shows the frequency of failure of rotating equipment in a process plant in various modes.
Fig. 14 shows the acid gas liquid tank pressure control protective layer and the number of hazardous events associated with it, and the resulting risk score level (C4 or C5). Fig. 15 shows the display effect of the independent protective layer failure database, which describes the failure types of the "liquid level high alarm" protective layer of the hydrogenation reaction unit and their corresponding failure frequency values, and the failure frequency values corresponding to the process can be triggered to be displayed when the security manager clicks the "basic analysis" control (such as the protective layer list in fig. 11A).
And a calculation engine configured in the server can perform rapid consequence prediction, leakage frequency and ignition probability calculation, automatic risk level evaluation and overall device safety risk calculation. As shown in fig. 11A, it shows a user interface for a risk management platform user to implement basic analysis operations in the embodiment of the present invention, specifically, after a risk list is uploaded by an administrator, a server obtains a control index deviation corresponding to a risk element, so that the server can determine a reason and an outcome corresponding to the control index deviation by querying a database and a knowledge base, and call an SIL tool to analyze an initial risk score (C7) corresponding to the control index deviation and calculate a risk score (C4) of a process under an existing measure when the risk list includes the existing measure; in addition, the installation and management staff can also inquire the inspection guideline basis of the process device adopted by the evaluation result by clicking the device inspection main point control shown in fig. 11A. Preferably, the manager may also click on the "review experience" control to find general review points stored in the knowledge base and database corresponding to the process, including review points for process design, chemical safety, floor plan, equipment, storage systems, discharge systems, instrumentation, and control and corrosion aspects. Preferably, the custodian may also draw lessons from the chemical accident events and the non-incident events associated with the process plant under examination by clicking on the "plant events and non-incident events library" control. The protection layer situation is also set below fig. 11A, which includes the type and name of the protection layer and the corresponding protection layer failure frequency value.
Referring to fig. 11B, it shows a user interface for a risk management platform user to perform SIL rating and verification operations in the embodiment of the present invention, specifically, after the manager clicks the "SIL rating and verification" control, the reliability data and audit data from the certification database and the SIL analysis and verification tool are invoked to analyze the risk elements in the risk element table or the existing measures adopted in the process to obtain the corresponding analysis results, and further, the analysis results of each process part can be verified and image-analyzed.
Further, when the administrator clicks the "knowledge base" control, the server analyzes the description of the unit and the node corresponding to the process, and the description of the check item and the check basis corresponding to the node. As shown in FIG. 11C, the examination items S5-1-6 and S5-1-7 for the existence of the acid gas flare torch node in the unit type sulfur recovery unit below the fixed bed reforming process unit are described, and the basis of the examination items is also explained.
In the embodiment of the invention, a petrochemical enterprise process risk analysis and quantification management platform is provided, so that integrated application of HAZOP/LOPA/SIL technology, knowledge bases of matched devices/facilities examination guidelines, single equipment examination key points, accident event cases and the like can be realized, and enterprises can be assisted to develop high-quality and systematic process risk assessment. The system has a calculation engine capable of performing rapid consequence prediction, leakage frequency and ignition probability calculation, automatic risk level evaluation and overall device safety risk calculation. Various equipment reliability databases are built in, and the accuracy and the uniformity of evaluation are guaranteed. In addition, enterprise risk statistical analysis and risk quantitative comparison can be realized, risk change after the protective layer fails is calculated, the adjustment and the closing process of the risk are tracked, and the risk control is ensured.
An embodiment of the present invention further provides a machine-readable storage medium, which stores instructions capable of being called by a machine to perform some or all of the steps of the method for risk quantification management of a petrochemical production process performed by a server, an enterprise terminal or a subordinate unit terminal according to the present application.
For more details and effects of the technical solution of the embodiment of the machine-readable storage medium, reference may be made to the above description of the embodiment of the method, and details are not repeated here.
Although the embodiments of the present invention have been described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings, the embodiments of the present invention are not limited to the details of the above embodiments, and various simple modifications can be made to the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention within the technical idea of the embodiments of the present invention, and the simple modifications all belong to the protection scope of the embodiments of the present invention.
It should be noted that the various features described in the above embodiments may be combined in any suitable manner without departing from the scope of the invention. In order to avoid unnecessary repetition, the embodiments of the present invention do not describe every possible combination.
Those skilled in the art will understand that all or part of the steps in the method according to the above embodiments may be implemented by a program, which is stored in a storage medium and includes several instructions to enable a single chip, a chip, or a processor (processor) to execute all or part of the steps in the method according to the embodiments of the present application. And the aforementioned storage medium includes: a U-disk, a removable hard disk, a Read-Only Memory (ROM), a Random Access Memory (RAM), a magnetic disk or an optical disk, and other various media capable of storing program codes.
In addition, any combination of various different implementation manners of the embodiments of the present invention is also possible, and the embodiments of the present invention should be considered as disclosed in the embodiments of the present invention as long as the combination does not depart from the spirit of the embodiments of the present invention.
Claims (14)
1. A risk quantification management method of a petrochemical production process comprises the following steps:
the safety management personnel of subordinate units research and collect risk elements existing in the petrochemical production process of subordinate units and make a unit risk list comprising the collected risk elements, wherein the risk elements comprise control index deviation items which are related to the petrochemical production process and can cause chemical accidents;
the subordinate unit terminal uploads the unit risk list to a server;
the server determines the dangerous events corresponding to the risk elements and evaluates accident consequences corresponding to the dangerous events and accident frequency corresponding to the accident consequences; and
the server determines a first risk score corresponding to the petrochemical production process according to the accident consequence corresponding to each evaluated dangerous event and the accident frequency corresponding to the accident consequence; and
managing the petrochemical production process based on the first risk score.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the server determining the risk events corresponding to the risk elements and evaluating the accident consequences corresponding to each risk event and the accident frequency corresponding to the accident consequences comprises:
the server counts a plurality of dangerous events under the nodes based on the dangerous events corresponding to the risk elements;
and the server calls a risk quantitative analysis tool and determines accident consequences corresponding to the dangerous events under the nodes and the risk frequency corresponding to the accident consequences by combining a database and a knowledge base.
3. The method of claim 2, wherein the risk quantification analysis tool comprises one or more of: HAZOP analysis tool, LOPA analysis tool, SIL analysis tool, and QRA tool, and
the knowledge base and the data in the database include one or more of: reliability data, verification base data, and audit trail data for a plurality of petrochemical devices, and the database and the knowledge base provide data source support for the risk quantification analysis tool.
4. The method of claim 3, wherein the data in the knowledge base and the database includes reliability data, verification base data, and/or device review guidelines common to domestic petrochemical enterprises, and the knowledge base and the database are configured with a call interface open for the risk quantification analysis tool.
5. The method of claim 2, wherein the determining, by the server, the first risk score for the petrochemical production process according to the accident consequence corresponding to each of the assessed dangerous events and the accident frequency corresponding to the accident consequence comprises:
the server counts equipment units included in a petrochemical production process and nodes included in the equipment units;
the server acquires accident consequences corresponding to all nodes in the petrochemical production process and risk frequencies corresponding to the accident consequences, and determines a first risk score corresponding to the petrochemical production process through cumulative calculation.
6. The method of claim 5, wherein the managing the petrochemical production process based on the first risk score comprises:
the server selects a target equipment unit or a target node from the risk list;
the server determines a dangerous event under the target equipment unit or the target node, and an effective risk score and a failure risk score which correspond to the petrochemical production process under the effective condition and the failure condition respectively;
and the server individually manages the equipment units or nodes under the petrochemical production process based on the effective risk score and the failure risk score.
7. The method of claim 1, wherein the managing the petrochemical production process based on the first risk score comprises:
and the server allocates corresponding colors for the petrochemical production process by referring to a risk color comparison table and combining the first risk scores, and displays the first risk scores marked by the colors on a user interface of a terminal, wherein the risk color comparison table has a plurality of colors, and each color is used for indicating the risk score groups of the same risk level.
8. The method of claim 1, wherein the managing the petrochemical production process based on the first risk score comprises:
and determining the distribution of the first risk scores on the socially acceptable risk standard coordinate system based on a pre-configured socially acceptable risk standard coordinate system, wherein the socially acceptable risk standard coordinate system is used for indicating the relationship between the population number of the social deaths around the process device and the cumulative occurrence frequency of the times of deaths.
9. The method of claim 1, wherein the managing the petrochemical production process based on the first risk score comprises:
the server pushes the unit risk list to an enterprise terminal when the first risk score exceeds a preset first risk threshold;
optimizing and perfecting the risk elements in the unit risk list by each professional security subcommittee of the enterprise organization to form an enterprise risk list;
the enterprise terminal uploads the enterprise risk list to the server; and
the server reevaluates a second risk score corresponding to the petrochemical production process based on the risk elements in the enterprise risk list;
managing the petrochemical production process of the subordinate units based on the second risk score.
10. The method of claim 9, wherein the subordinate unit is plural in number, and wherein the method further comprises:
and the server marks corresponding colors for all subordinate units on the electronic map according to the first risk score and/or the second risk score, wherein the marked color type uniquely corresponds to a risk score interval.
11. The method of claim 9, wherein said managing the petrochemical production process of the subordinate unit based on the second risk score comprises:
and according to the process characteristics of the petrochemical production process, the enterprise implements corresponding risk monitoring leaders and risk reduction plans.
12. The method of claim 9, wherein said managing the petrochemical production process of the subordinate unit based on the second risk score comprises:
the server determines a rectification recommended measure corresponding to a risk element in the petrochemical production process based on a risk recommended library, wherein a plurality of groups of corresponding relations between the rectification recommended measure and the risk element are stored in the risk recommended library;
and the subordinate unit terminal accesses the server to acquire the rectification suggestion measure.
13. The method of claim 12, wherein after the subordinate unit terminal obtains the corrective proposal measure by accessing the server, the method further comprises:
the server pushes the rectification tasks to the subordinate unit terminals according to the rectification suggestion measures;
the subordinate unit terminal uploads a process rectification condition corresponding to the rectification task to the server, wherein the process rectification condition indicates the completion condition of the safety management personnel of the subordinate unit for the rectification suggested measure;
and the enterprise terminal accesses the server to acquire the process modification condition.
14. The method of claim 9, wherein the managing the petrochemical production process of the subordinate unit based on the second risk score further comprises:
when the second risk score exceeds a preset second risk threshold, the server sends the enterprise risk list to a group terminal, wherein the second risk threshold is larger than the first risk threshold;
optimizing and perfecting risk elements in the enterprise risk list by HSE committee of group organization group company to form a group risk list;
and the group terminal uploads the group risk list to the server so that the server performs full quantitative risk assessment on the group risk list.
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