CN110807257A - Method for predicting residual life of aircraft engine - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention provides a method for predicting the remaining life of an aircraft engine, which comprises the steps of firstly obtaining historical aircraft engine failure data, carrying out feature selection on aircraft engine monitoring variables, carrying out standardization processing on the monitoring variables selected by the features, then carrying out first-order difference operation to generate new variables, and obtaining a three-dimensional matrix form of an engine performance degradation data set. And constructing a bidirectional LSTM network with an attention mechanism, constructing input and output of a sample according to a mapping relation between a monitoring variable and the residual life, and training the bidirectional LSTM network with the attention mechanism to obtain a trained residual life prediction model of the aircraft engine. And constructing the input of a test sample for the monitoring data of the in-service aircraft engine to be subjected to residual life prediction, forming a test set and inputting the test set into the model for predicting the residual life of the aircraft engine to obtain the predicted value of the residual life of the in-service aircraft engine. The method provided by the invention is simple and effective in calculation process and high in prediction precision.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a prediction method of the residual life of an aircraft engine, in particular to a prediction method of the residual life of an aircraft engine of a bidirectional LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) model with an attention mechanism.
Background
The aeroengine as a high-precision technical device needs to have the capability of adapting to extreme environments such as high temperature, high pressure, extreme cold and the like besides working in the conventional environment of sea level. Therefore, the degradation process of the engine is not solved by a simple single variable or single fault prediction model due to the complex and variable working environment and the influence of self-coupling action. In order to greatly improve the reliability and the safety of the aircraft engine and reduce the operation cost, the mass data generated by the sensor are mainly analyzed in real time or at regular time by a big data means, the working states of the engine and all parts are supervised and detected, and the problems are efficiently found or prevented, so that maintenance measures are made in advance to avoid catastrophic accidents, the economic benefit of engine operation is maximized, and the effect of safe operation is achieved while the maintenance cost is reduced.
In view of the advances in modern technology capabilities, having an integrated health management and diagnostic strategy becomes an important component of the system operational lifecycle. It is well known that complexity and noisy operating conditions make it difficult to build physical models from a priori knowledge, and most physical models cannot be updated with online measurement data, limiting their effectiveness and flexibility.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects in the prior art, the invention provides a method for predicting the residual life of an aircraft engine.
In order to realize the purpose of the invention, the following technical scheme is adopted for realizing the purpose:
a method for predicting the residual life of an aircraft engine comprises the following steps:
acquiring historical aeroengine failure data,form a training set XN×V×LWherein N represents the number of aero-engine samples, V represents the number of monitoring variables collected by each sensor in the aero-engine, and LnAnd (3) representing the monitoring track length of the nth aircraft engine sample N in the N aircraft engine samples.
Performing feature selection on the V monitoring variables to obtain F monitoring variables; standardizing the F monitoring variables, and performing first-order difference operation on the standardized variables to generate new variables to obtain a three-dimensional matrix form X of the engine performance degradation data setN×2F×L。
Constructing a bidirectional LSTM network with attention mechanism, and connecting XN×2F×LAnd constructing input and output of the sample according to the mapping relation between the monitoring variable X and the residual life RUL, and using the input and output to train a bidirectional LSTM network with an attention mechanism to obtain a trained prediction model of the residual life of the aircraft engine.
Establishing input of a test sample for monitoring data of an in-service aircraft engine to be subjected to residual life prediction to form a test set; and inputting the constructed test set into a trained prediction model of the residual life of the aircraft engine to obtain a predicted value of the residual life of the in-service aircraft engine.
Further, in the present invention, the feature selection on the V monitoring variables means that a constant variable in the V monitoring variables is deleted, and a trend variable is retained to obtain F monitoring variables.
Further, in the present invention, the normalization of the F monitoring variables means: the selected F monitoring variables are normalized to the range of [ -1,1] according to a 'min-max' normalization method.
Further, in the present invention, the input and output method for constructing the sample is: to XN×2F×LThe input of the sample is constructed by adopting a window sliding method, and the corresponding output label, namely the residual service life RUL, is corrected according to a step linear function, and finally the input and the output of the paired samples are obtained. The window sliding method is described as follows:
for XN×2F×LData of the middle engine sample nThe following form of samples is obtained for step d ═ 1:
wherein the order linear function expression is as follows:
wherein Label represents a Label for constructing sample data, RUL represents the actual residual life in the acquired historical aeroengine failure data, and RearlyIndicates a threshold value set according to the situation. Which may be taken as a default value of 125 as in the present invention.
Further, in the present invention, the mapping relationship between the monitoring variable X and the remaining lifetime RUL is expressed as follows:
f:X→RUL i.e.,RUL(t)=f(Xt-s+1,Xt-s+2,…,Xt)
wherein t represents time, s represents time step, XiAnd i is t-s +1, …, and t represents the monitoring data corresponding to the time i and is in a vector form with the length of 2F.
Further, the invention also comprises a method for evaluating the prediction result of the test set, wherein the prediction result of the test set is evaluated by adopting two indexes of a mean square error root RMSE and a Score function Score:
wherein n represents the number of test samples in the test set, di=RUL′i-RULiAnd the error between the predicted value and the true value of the ith test sample in the test set is represented.
In another aspect, the present invention further provides a system for predicting a remaining life of an aircraft engine, including:
the data acquisition module is used for acquiring historical aeroengine failure data to form a training set;
the characteristic selection module is used for selecting characteristics of the monitoring variables of the aero-engine, deleting constant variables and keeping trend variables;
the standardization processing module is used for standardizing the trend variables output by the characteristic selection module;
the first-order difference module is used for performing first-order difference operation on the standardized variables to generate new variables so as to obtain a three-dimensional matrix form of the engine performance degradation data set;
the training module is used for constructing a bidirectional LSTM network with an attention mechanism, constructing input and output of a sample by using an engine performance degradation data set in a three-dimensional matrix form output by the first-order difference module according to a mapping relation between a monitoring variable and the residual life, and training the bidirectional LSTM network with the attention mechanism to obtain a trained prediction model of the residual life of the aero-engine;
the prediction module is used for constructing the input of a test sample for the monitoring data of the in-service aircraft engine to be subjected to residual life prediction to form a test set; and inputting the constructed test set into a trained prediction model of the residual life of the aircraft engine to obtain a predicted value of the residual life of the in-service aircraft engine.
Further, the prediction system for the residual life of the aircraft engine further comprises a prediction result evaluation module, and the prediction result of the test set is evaluated by adopting two indexes, namely a mean square error Root (RMSE) and a Score function Score.
In another aspect, the present invention further provides an intelligent device, which includes a memory and a processor, where the memory stores a computer program, and the processor implements the steps of any one of the methods for predicting the remaining life of an aircraft engine when executing the computer program.
In another aspect, the present invention further provides a readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, the computer program, when being executed by a processor, implementing the steps of any one of the methods for predicting the remaining life of an aircraft engine.
The invention has the advantages that:
taking the residual service life RUL of the aircraft engine as a prediction target, firstly, establishing a mapping relation between a characteristic variable for representing a system degradation process and the prediction target; secondly, in order to learn a model capable of better describing a system degradation process, based on the angle of system degradation characteristic information extraction, an LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) model is utilized to have the capability of learning a sequence data correlation relationship, an enhanced version of the bidirectional LSTM simultaneously utilizes past and future dependency information to acquire more information of a time sequence relationship, the introduction of an attention mechanism can help to highlight strong degradation information and weaken the influence of redundant or useless information, and the bidirectional LSTM model with the attention mechanism is provided to learn the mapping relationship.
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In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments or the prior art of the present invention, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and for the ordinary skill in the art, other drawings can be obtained according to these drawings without creative efforts.
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for predicting the remaining life of an aircraft engine according to an embodiment of the invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of a bi-directional LSTM network with attention mechanism;
FIG. 3 is a logical relationship diagram of an aircraft engine architecture and simulation module according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a scatter plot of 21 sensor signals from an aircraft engine in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention;
the diagram shows a comparison of the sequenced predicted results of 5100 test engines;
FIG. 6 tests engine # 24 remaining life prediction results;
FIG. 7 test Engine #34 remaining Life prediction results;
FIG. 8 test Engine #76 remaining Life prediction results;
fig. 9 tests engine # 100 remaining life prediction results.
Detailed Description
The technical solution in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. It is to be understood that the described embodiments are merely exemplary of the invention, and not restrictive of the full scope of the invention. All other embodiments, which can be obtained by a person skilled in the art without making any creative effort based on the embodiments of the present invention, belong to the protection scope of the present invention.
Referring to fig. 1, fig. 1 is a flowchart of a method for predicting the remaining life of an aircraft engine according to an embodiment of the present invention, including the following steps:
(1) obtaining historical aircraft engine failure data, and carrying out sample reconstruction on the historical aircraft engine failure data to form a training set XN×V×L. Wherein N represents the number of aero-engine samples, V represents the number of monitoring variables collected by each sensor in the aero-engine, and LnAnd (3) representing the monitoring track length of the nth aircraft engine sample N in the N aircraft engine samples.
(2) And selecting the characteristics of the V monitoring variables, deleting constant variables in the V monitoring variables, keeping trend variables, and reducing the number of the monitoring variables in the engine sample from V to F to obtain F monitoring variables.
(3) Normalizing the selected F monitoring variables to the range of [ -1,1] according to a 'minimum-maximum' normalization method, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein x isi(n),j∈XN×F×LThe i (n) th raw data representing the sample engine signal j,is xi(n),jNormalized value, andandrepresenting the maximum and minimum values of signal j, respectively.
Then, the normalized variables are subjected to first-order difference operation to generate new variables, and finally, a three-dimensional matrix form X of the engine performance degradation data set is obtainedN×2F×L。
The calculation formula of the k-order difference operation is as follows:
in the invention, k is defaulted to be 1, namely, the first-order difference operation is carried out. The new variable generated by the first order difference operation can be understood to characterize the acceleration of the degeneration process.
(4) Constructing a network architecture of a bidirectional LSTM model with an attention mechanism; mixing XN×2F×LAnd constructing input and output of the sample according to the mapping relation between the monitoring variable X and the residual life RUL, and using the input and output to train a bidirectional LSTM network with an attention mechanism to obtain a trained prediction model of the residual life of the aircraft engine. The network architecture of the bidirectional LSTM model with attention mechanism employed by the present invention is shown in fig. 2. The proposed model has the benefits that: because the time sequence monitoring data has strong time dependence, the bidirectional LSTM can process sequence data through a forward hidden layer and a backward hidden layer respectively and then feed forward to the same output layer; the introduction of attention mechanism can play a role of 'highlighting strong degradation information and weakening redundant or useless information'.
Specifically, the activation mechanism of the bidirectional LSTM hidden layer function is as follows:
for the input data, the bidirectional LSTM network selectively masks some redundant information by utilizing a forgetting gate through forward calculation and backward calculation respectively, and utilizes an input gate and an input node to select information needing to be updated and record the new information. The basic formulas for training the predictive model based on the forward → and reverse ← time of bidirectional LSTM are as follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,indicating the entry gate (what information needs to be updated),indicating that the door was forgotten (what information was discarded),indicating the output gate (determining what information to output), an output representing a status update (history information accumulation),the information representing the output is displayed on the display, andas a weight matrix, andis a bias vector.
Hidden unit h for bidirectional LSTM final outputtExpressed as the connected vectors output by the forward and backward processes, as follows:
as shown in FIG. 2, the nature of the attention mechanism is to compute weights, so the bidirectional LSTM with attention mechanism is actually a correction operation for hidden states, which can be expressed as a convex sum as follows:
ht=(1-at)·ht-1+at·h′t
wherein h ist-1Indicates a hidden state of the previous time, h'tIs a correction based on attention mechanism made at the current time to the previous time hidden state, atRepresents the weight coefficient:
h′t=g(W·ht-1+U·xt+b)
where W and U are linear transfer functions for the previous and current time instants, respectively, and b represents an offset, typically the activation function g uses a rectifying linear unit (ReLU). Performing three-dimensional matrix form engine performance degradation data set X obtained in the step (3)N×2F×LThe input and output of the sample are constructed according to the mapping relationship between the monitoring variable X and the remaining lifetime RUL.
Wherein the mapping relationship between the monitoring variable X and the remaining lifetime RUL is expressed as follows:
f:X→RUL i.e.,RUL(t)=f(Xt-s+1,Xt-s+2,…,Xt)
wherein t represents time, s represents time step, XiAnd i is t-s +1, …, and t represents the monitoring data corresponding to the time i and is in a vector form with the length of 2F.
To XN×2F×LThe data in the step (1) is input by adopting a window sliding method to construct a sample, and a label (RUL) corresponding to the output of the sample is corrected according to a stepped linear function, so that input and output of paired sample data are finally obtained and are used for training a bidirectional LSTM network with an attention mechanism.
The window sliding method is described as follows:
for XN×2F×LOf medium engine sample nData ofThe following form of samples is obtained for step d ═ 1:
wherein the order linear function expression is as follows:
wherein Label represents a Label for constructing sample data, RUL represents the actual residual life in the acquired historical aeroengine failure data, and RearlyIndicates a threshold value set according to the situation. Which may be taken as a default value of 125 as in the present invention.
(5) And for the monitoring data of the in-service aircraft engine to be subjected to residual life prediction, establishing the input of the test sample by adopting a window sliding method to form a test set. And inputting the constructed test set into a trained prediction model of the residual life of the aircraft engine to obtain a predicted value of the residual life of the in-service aircraft engine.
Further, the method is used for evaluating the prediction result of the method provided by the invention. The prediction result of the method provided by the invention is evaluated by adopting two indexes of a mean square error Root (RMSE) and a Score function (Score), and the expressions of the two indexes of the mean square error Root (RMSE) and the Score function (Score) are respectively:
wherein n represents the number of test samples in the test set, di=RUL′i-RULiAnd the error between the predicted value and the true value of the ith test sample in the test set is represented.
The following describes the implementation and prediction effect of the present invention with reference to a specific application example:
in this implementation, NASA is used to provide a CMAPSS simulation data set for an aircraft engine. CMAPSS is a modularized aviation propulsion system simulation software developed by Green research center of NASA in the United states, and aims to simulate the whole degradation process of an airplane from normal to fault and provide a data base for a prediction model. Simulation experiments were created under the MatlabSimulink tool, simulating an engine model with 90000 pounds of thrust, and the program included an atmospheric model and an electrical management system involving five component modules for a fan, a Low Pressure Compressor (LPC), a High Pressure Compressor (HPC), a high pressure turbine (HPC), and a Low Pressure Turbine (LPT). The logical structural relationship of five modules in an aircraft engine simulation experiment is shown in fig. 3.
The open source data comprises four groups of simulation data in total, the specific implementation process of the invention selects 'train _ FD 001' and 'test _ FD 001' as a training set and a test set respectively, wherein each subdata set comprises 26 columns, namely, a number, an operation period, an environment setting 1, an environment setting 2, an environment setting 3 and 21 monitoring indexes, 21 monitoring data are used for outputting signal data in the engine degradation process in the simulation experiment, and the specific meaning represented by the data is described as shown in Table 1.
TABLE 1 Engine monitoring index description
The specific process of using the method of the invention to predict the service life is as follows:
Step 3, sample construction and label resetting: constructing the size of N for each engine unit in the training set according to a time window methodt×NfIs input of samples of (1), wherein Nt=30,Nf28. When constructing the sample output, the real residual life is reset by adopting a step linear function method, and the assumption is that the sample output has a constant RUL value R in the initial stageearly=125。
And 5, constructing a sample input of the network for the data in the test set according to the same method in the step 3. And inputting the samples of the test set into the trained prediction model of the residual life of the aircraft engine to obtain a prediction result, as shown in fig. 5.
The prediction performance index values of the prediction model of the residual life of the aircraft engine are respectively as follows: RMSE 12.58 and Score 240.21. In order to further observe the prediction effect of the model, samples constructed by four test engines with the numbers of #24, #34, #76 and #100 are respectively input into the trained prediction model of the residual life of the aircraft engine to obtain comparison effect graphs of a predicted value and a true value, which are respectively shown in fig. 6, fig. 7, fig. 8 and fig. 9, wherein fig. 6 is a prediction result graph of the residual life of the test engine # 24; FIG. 7 is a graph of the remaining life prediction results for test engine # 34; FIG. 8 is a graph of the remaining life prediction results for test engine # 76; fig. 9 is a remaining life prediction result map of the test engine # 100.
In conclusion, the invention provides a method for predicting the residual life of an aeroengine of a bidirectional LSTM model with an attention mechanism, which establishes a mapping relation between a characteristic variable for representing a system degradation process and a prediction target (RUL); according to the characteristic that the LSTM model has the capability of learning the sequence data correlation relationship, and the enhanced version of the bidirectional LSTM simultaneously utilizes the past and future dependency information to acquire more information of the time sequence relationship, and the bidirectional LSTM model with the attention mechanism is provided for learning the proposed mapping relationship by utilizing the attention mechanism to play a role of 'highlighting strong degradation information and weakening redundant or useless information'. Preprocessing original monitoring data, constructing a sample for inputting the proposed model, inputting the constructed sample into a set model, and training to obtain a final model; and finally, inputting the test sample into the trained model to obtain a final result and a predicted performance index. The method well solves the problem of predicting the residual service life of the data-driven aircraft engine through the steps, and is beneficial to building the bridge connected with big data and intelligent system health management. Compared with the existing method, the algorithm provided by the invention is simple and effective in calculation process. According to the specific embodiment, the algorithm provided by the invention has high prediction precision.
Although the present invention has been described with reference to the preferred embodiments, it should be understood that various changes and modifications can be made therein by those skilled in the art without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention as defined by the appended claims.
Claims (10)
1. A method for predicting the residual life of an aircraft engine is characterized by comprising the following steps:
obtaining historical aeroengine failure data to form a training set XN×V×LWherein N represents the number of aero-engine samples, V represents the number of monitoring variables collected by each sensor in the aero-engine, and LnRepresenting the monitoring track length of the nth aeroengine sample N in the N aeroengine samples;
performing feature selection on the V monitoring variables to obtain F monitoring variables; standardizing the F monitoring variables, and performing first-order difference operation on the standardized variables to generate new variables to obtain a three-dimensional matrix form X of the engine performance degradation data setN×2F×L;
Constructing a bidirectional LSTM network with attention mechanism, and connecting XN×2F×LConstructing input and output of a sample according to a mapping relation between a monitoring variable X and the residual life RUL, and training a bidirectional LSTM network with an attention mechanism to obtain a trained prediction model of the residual life of the aircraft engine;
establishing input of a test sample for monitoring data of an in-service aircraft engine to be subjected to residual life prediction to form a test set; and inputting the constructed test set into a trained prediction model of the residual life of the aircraft engine to obtain a predicted value of the residual life of the in-service aircraft engine.
2. The method for predicting the remaining life of the aircraft engine according to claim 1, wherein the characteristic selection of the V monitoring variables is to delete a constant variable from the V monitoring variables and retain a trend variable to obtain F monitoring variables.
3. The method for predicting the remaining life of an aircraft engine according to claim 1, wherein the normalization process of the F monitored variables is performed by: the selected F monitoring variables are normalized to the range of [ -1,1] according to a 'min-max' normalization method.
4. The method of predicting the remaining life of an aircraft engine according to claim 1, wherein the input and output methods of the construction samples are: to XN×2F×LThe input of the sample is constructed by adopting a window sliding method, and the corresponding output label, namely the residual service life RUL, is corrected according to a step linear function, and finally the input and the output of the paired samples are obtained.
5. The method of predicting the remaining life of an aircraft engine according to claim 2, wherein the mapping between the monitoring variable X and the remaining life RUL is represented as follows:
f:X→RULi.e.,RUL(t)=f(Xt-s+1,Xt-s+2,…,Xt)
wherein t represents time, s represents time step, XiAnd i is t-s +1, …, and t represents the monitoring data corresponding to the time i and is in a vector form with the length of 2F.
6. The method for predicting the residual life of an aircraft engine according to claim 3, further comprising a method for evaluating the prediction results of the test set, wherein the prediction results of the test set are evaluated by two indexes, namely a mean square error Root (RMSE) and a Score function (Score):
wherein n represents the number of test samples in the test set, di=RULi′-RULiAnd the error between the predicted value and the true value of the ith test sample in the test set is represented.
7. An aircraft engine remaining life prediction system, comprising:
the data acquisition module is used for acquiring historical aeroengine failure data to form a training set;
the characteristic selection module is used for selecting characteristics of the monitoring variables of the aero-engine, deleting constant variables and keeping trend variables;
the standardization processing module is used for standardizing the trend variables output by the characteristic selection module;
the first-order difference module is used for performing first-order difference operation on the standardized variables to generate new variables so as to obtain a three-dimensional matrix form of the engine performance degradation data set;
the training module is used for constructing a bidirectional LSTM network with an attention mechanism, constructing input and output of a sample by using an engine performance degradation data set in a three-dimensional matrix form output by the first-order difference module according to a mapping relation between a monitoring variable and the residual life, and training the bidirectional LSTM network with the attention mechanism to obtain a trained prediction model of the residual life of the aero-engine;
the prediction module is used for constructing the input of a test sample for the monitoring data of the in-service aircraft engine to be subjected to residual life prediction to form a test set; and inputting the constructed test set into a trained prediction model of the residual life of the aircraft engine to obtain a predicted value of the residual life of the in-service aircraft engine.
8. The system of claim 7, further comprising a prediction evaluation module for evaluating the prediction results of the test set using two criteria, Root of Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Score function (Score).
9. An intelligent device comprising a memory and a processor, the memory storing a computer program, wherein the processor when executing the computer program implements the steps of the method for predicting the remaining life of an aircraft engine as defined in any one of claims 1 to 6.
10. A readable storage medium on which a computer program is stored, wherein the computer program, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the method for predicting the remaining life of an aircraft engine according to any one of claims 1 to 6.
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CN112149316B (en) | 2022-04-19 |
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CN112100865B (en) | 2022-08-23 |
CN112149316A (en) | 2020-12-29 |
CN112100865A (en) | 2020-12-18 |
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