CN110782369A - Method for determining operation risk of multi-energy complementary new energy power generation system and evaluation system - Google Patents
Method for determining operation risk of multi-energy complementary new energy power generation system and evaluation system Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method and an evaluation system for determining operation risk of a multi-energy complementary new energy power generation system. The method for determining the operation risk of the new energy power generation system comprises the following steps: determining a first evaluation vector representing the operation risk based on the correlation degree between the operation risk indexes and the operation risk indexes of the objects to be evaluated, wherein the operation risk indexes are used for indicating the operation risk of the multi-energy complementary new energy power generation system; generating a third matrix based on the evaluation level corresponding to the operation risk index; and combining the first evaluation vector and the third matrix to generate a second evaluation vector so as to determine the operation risk of the multi-energy complementary new energy power generation system according to the second evaluation vector. The invention also discloses a computing device for executing the method.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of energy power, in particular to a method for determining operation risk of a multi-energy complementary new energy power generation system.
Background
With the increase of energy investment and the increasing of emission reduction situation, research on new energy power generation becomes a hot spot of research of all countries in the world. In the face of increasingly severe resource environment and energy safety situations, the rise of new energy power generation project investment undoubtedly has important significance. However, such a large number of projects invest in ensuring their quality. In addition, it is an extremely important issue how to reduce and avoid the operational risk while pursuing maximization of the investment profit.
Therefore, a scheme for effectively determining the operational risk of the multi-energy complementary new energy power generation system is needed.
Disclosure of Invention
To this end, the present invention provides a method and an evaluation system for determining operational risks of a multi-energy complementary new energy power generation system in an attempt to solve or at least alleviate at least one of the problems presented above.
According to one aspect of the invention, a method for determining operation risk of a multi-energy complementary new energy power generation system is provided, and comprises the following steps: determining a first evaluation vector representing the operation risk based on the correlation degree between the operation risk indexes and the operation risk indexes of the objects to be evaluated, wherein the operation risk indexes are used for indicating the operation risk of the multi-energy complementary new energy power generation system; generating a third matrix based on the evaluation level corresponding to the operation risk index; and combining the first evaluation vector and the third matrix to generate a second evaluation vector so as to determine the operation risk of the multi-energy complementary new energy power generation system according to the second evaluation vector.
According to another aspect of the present invention, there is provided a system for evaluating operational risk of a multi-energy complementary new energy power generation system, including: the index storage unit is suitable for storing an operation risk index indicating the operation risk of the multi-energy complementary new energy power generation system; an operational risk determination unit adapted to perform the method as described above based on the stored indicator to calculate a second evaluation vector indicative of the operational risk of the multi-energy complementary new energy power generation system; and the operation risk evaluation unit is suitable for evaluating and analyzing the operation risk of the multi-energy complementary new energy power generation system based on the second evaluation vector.
According to yet another aspect of the present invention, there is provided a computing device comprising: one or more processors; and a memory; one or more programs, wherein the one or more programs are stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the one or more processors, the one or more programs including instructions for performing any of the methods described above.
According to a further aspect of the invention there is provided a computer readable storage medium storing one or more programs, the one or more programs comprising instructions, which when executed by a computing device, cause the computing device to perform any of the methods described above.
In conclusion, according to the scheme of the invention, research is carried out on the operation risk problem of the multi-energy complementary new energy power generation system, and an operation risk index system of the multi-energy complementary new energy power generation system is established on the basis of fully excavating the operation risk factors of the power generation system. Meanwhile, on the basis of fully considering the characteristics of all evaluation indexes, the operation risk of the multi-energy complementary new energy power generation system is determined by combining the correlation degree between the operation risk indexes, the membership degree between the operation risk indexes and the evaluation levels and the like.
Drawings
To the accomplishment of the foregoing and related ends, certain illustrative aspects are described herein in connection with the following description and the annexed drawings, which are indicative of various ways in which the principles disclosed herein may be practiced, and all aspects and equivalents thereof are intended to be within the scope of the claimed subject matter. The above and other objects, features and advantages of the present disclosure will become more apparent from the following detailed description read in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. Throughout this disclosure, like reference numerals generally refer to like parts or elements.
FIG. 1 shows a schematic diagram of a configuration of a computing device 100 according to one embodiment of the invention;
FIG. 2 illustrates a flow diagram of a method 200 of determining operational risk of a multi-energy complementary new energy power generation system, according to one embodiment of the invention;
fig. 3 shows a block diagram of a system 300 for assessing operational risk of a multi-energy complementary new energy generation system according to an embodiment of the invention.
Detailed Description
Exemplary embodiments of the present disclosure will be described in more detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings. While exemplary embodiments of the present disclosure are shown in the drawings, it should be understood that the present disclosure may be embodied in various forms and should not be limited to the embodiments set forth herein. Rather, these embodiments are provided so that this disclosure will be thorough and complete, and will fully convey the scope of the disclosure to those skilled in the art.
Fig. 1 is a block diagram of an example computing device 100. In a basic configuration 102, computing device 100 typically includes system memory 106 and one or more processors 104. A memory bus 108 may be used for communication between the processor 104 and the system memory 106.
Depending on the desired configuration, the processor 104 may be any type of processor, including but not limited to: a microprocessor (μ P), a microcontroller (μ C), a Digital Signal Processor (DSP), or any combination thereof. The processor 104 may include one or more levels of cache, such as a level one cache 110 and a level two cache 112, a processor core 114, and registers 116. The example processor core 114 may include an Arithmetic Logic Unit (ALU), a Floating Point Unit (FPU), a digital signal processing core (DSP core), or any combination thereof. The example memory controller 118 may be used with the processor 104, or in some implementations the memory controller 118 may be an internal part of the processor 104.
Depending on the desired configuration, system memory 106 may be any type of memory, including but not limited to: volatile memory (such as RAM), non-volatile memory (such as ROM, flash memory, etc.), or any combination thereof. System memory 106 may include an operating system 120, one or more applications 122, and program data 124. In some embodiments, application 122 may be arranged to operate with program data 124 on an operating system. In some embodiments, computing device 100 is configured to perform method 200 of determining operational risk of a multi-energy complementary new energy power generation system, program data 124 including instructions for performing the above-described method.
Computing device 100 may also include an interface bus 140 that facilitates communication from various interface devices (e.g., output devices 142, peripheral interfaces 144, and communication devices 146) to the basic configuration 102 via the bus/interface controller 130. The example output device 142 includes a graphics processing unit 148 and an audio processing unit 150. They may be configured to facilitate communication with various external devices, such as a display or speakers, via one or more a/V ports 152. Example peripheral interfaces 144 may include a serial interface controller 154 and a parallel interface controller 156, which may be configured to facilitate communication with external devices such as input devices (e.g., keyboard, mouse, pen, voice input device, image input device) or other peripherals (e.g., printer, scanner, etc.) via one or more I/O ports 158. An example communication device 146 may include a network controller 160, which may be arranged to facilitate communications with one or more other computing devices 162 over a network communication link via one or more communication ports 164.
A network communication link may be one example of a communication medium. Communication media may typically be embodied by computer readable instructions, data structures, program modules, and may include any information delivery media, such as carrier waves or other transport mechanisms, in a modulated data signal. A "modulated data signal" may be a signal that has one or more of its data set or its changes made in such a manner as to encode information in the signal. By way of non-limiting example, communication media may include wired media such as a wired network or private-wired network, and various wireless media such as acoustic, Radio Frequency (RF), microwave, Infrared (IR), or other wireless media. The term computer readable media as used herein may include both storage media and communication media. In some embodiments, one or more programs are stored in a computer readable medium, the one or more programs including instructions for performing certain methods.
Computing device 100 may be implemented as part of a small-form factor portable (or mobile) electronic device such as a cellular telephone, a digital camera, a Personal Digital Assistant (PDA), a personal media player device, a wireless web-watch device, a personal headset device, an application specific device, or a hybrid device that include any of the above functions. Computing device 100 may also be implemented as a personal computer including both desktop and notebook computer configurations.
The flow of the method 200 for determining the operational risk of the multi-energy complementary new energy power generation system according to one embodiment of the present invention will be described in detail below with reference to fig. 2.
As shown in fig. 2, the method 200 begins at step S210. In step S210, a plurality of operation risk indicators indicating operation risks of the multi-energy complementary new energy power generation system are generated in advance.
In one embodiment, the operation risk index is set based on the risks of the new energy source issue point, wherein the operation risk index comprises one or more of the following indexes: policy risk indicators, transaction risk indicators, market risk indicators, operational risk indicators, other risk indicators (e.g., resource condition indicators, natural disaster indicators, equipment quality indicators, safety protection indicators, etc.), but are not limited thereto.
In the embodiment according to the present invention, the operation risk indicators are classified, and the evaluation indicators (or referred to as evaluation factors) under each operation risk indicator are further subdivided to construct a complete operation risk indicator system.
As table 1, an operational risk indicator system according to one embodiment of the present invention is shown. The operation risk index system comprises three levels of evaluation indexes, and the first level evaluation index set is U ═ U1, U2, U3, … and un }, so that the second level evaluation index set is Ui ═ Ui1, Ui2, Ui3, … and uin } (i ═ 1,2,3 and …).
TABLE 1 operational Risk indicator System
In practical application, a proper evaluation index can be screened according to the actual situation of the current new energy power generation system, and an operation risk evaluation index system is constructed.
In connection with table 1, the following exemplarily shows a calculation procedure of some operation risk indicators. In the process of calculating each operation risk index, a mode of combining subjective evaluation and objective evaluation is generally adopted. Subjective evaluation generally invites experts in related industries to evaluate and score, and finally obtains the subjective evaluation value through some technical means (such as correlation coefficient calculation). The objective evaluation generally adopts a corresponding calculation method to calculate the result.
A. Policy risk
(A1) Industry support policy
As a new thing in the germination period, a new energy project can be developed smoothly only under the condition of being highly valued and strongly supported by the government. Governments have driven the development of new energy projects primarily through industry-supported policies.
A11) New energy industry development acceleration level
The index mainly reflects the level of development of new energy industry under the promotion of government industry supporting policies. The development acceleration level of the new energy industry can be analyzed according to the current situation and the future trend of the new energy industry. Levels were classified by expert scoring into 3 classes: the first-level representation shows that the development situation is good, and the score is 85-100; the second level shows that the development level is stable, and the score is 60-85 points; the third level indicates that the development is slow and even tends to reverse, and the score is 0-60 points, but not limited to.
(A2) Industry system
A21) New energy industry standard degree
The index mainly reflects the standardization degree of the current new energy industry system. The expert can be graded according to the current new energy industry system, and the standard degree is divided into 3 grades: the first-level representation has high standardization degree of industrial system standards, and the score is 85-100; the secondary representation industry system is more standard, and the score is 60-85 points; the third-level representation industry is low in standardization degree and needs to be further improved, and the score is 0-60 points, but not limited to.
(A3) Wind power subsidy grade-withdrawing risk
A31) Wind power subsidy level
The index mainly reflects the current subsidy level for wind power grade withdrawal risks and the like. The subsidy level can be classified into 3 levels by expert scoring: the first level represents that the subsidy level is high, and the score is 85-100 points; the second level represents the general subsidy level, and the score is 60-85 points; the third level means that the subsidy level is low and needs to be further improved, and the score is 0-60 points, but not limited thereto.
(A4) Photovoltaic subsidy grade-withdrawing risk
A41) Photovoltaic subsidy level
The index mainly reflects the current subsidy level for photovoltaic grade withdrawal risks and the like. The subsidy level can be classified into 3 levels by expert scoring: the first level represents that the subsidy level is high, and the score is 85-100 points; the second level represents the general subsidy level, and the score is 60-85 points; the third level means that the subsidy level is low and needs to be further improved, and the score is 0-60 points, but not limited thereto.
(A5) Risk of photo-thermal subsidy
A51) Level of photo-thermal patch
This index mainly reflects the current subsidy level for photothermal risk. The subsidy level can be classified into 3 levels by expert scoring: the first level represents that the subsidy level is high, and the score is 85-100 points; the second level represents the general subsidy level, and the score is 60-85 points; the third level means that the subsidy level is low and needs to be further improved, and the score is 0-60 points, but not limited thereto.
(A6) Risk of energy storage subsidy
A61) Energy storage subsidy level
The index mainly reflects the current subsidy level for the risk of energy storage. The subsidy level can be classified into 3 levels by expert scoring: the first level represents that the subsidy level is high, and the score is 85-100 points; the second level represents the general subsidy level, and the score is 60-85 points; the third level means that the subsidy level is low and needs to be further improved, and the score is 0-60 points, but not limited thereto.
B. Risk of transaction
(B1) Risk of electricity purchase by wind power
B11) Wind power on-grid electricity price commensurately increasing rate
The index refers to the ratio of the difference value between the grid-connected electricity price of the wind power at the current period and the grid-connected electricity price of the wind power at the previous period to the grid-connected electricity price of the wind power at the previous period, and can be defined as:
in the formula: p
i urFor the price of the wind power on-line electricity in the period,
the price of the last period of wind power on-line electricity is obtained. The difference value between the grid-connected electricity price of the wind power at the current period and the grid-connected electricity price of the wind power at the previous period and the ratio of the grid-connected electricity price of the wind power at the previous period reflect the change condition of the grid-connected electricity price of the wind power.
(B2) Risk of photovoltaic power purchase
B21) Photovoltaic on-line electricity price proportional growth rate
The index refers to a difference value between the photovoltaic internet access electricity price in the current period and the photovoltaic internet access electricity price in the previous period and a ratio of the photovoltaic internet access electricity price in the previous period, and can be defined as follows:
in the formula: p
i frFor the photovoltaic on-line electricity price in the period,
the photovoltaic grid-connected electricity price of the last period. The difference value between the photovoltaic on-line electricity price in the current period and the photovoltaic on-line electricity price in the previous period and the ratio of the photovoltaic on-line electricity price in the previous period reflect the change situation of the photovoltaic on-line electricity price.
(B3) Risk of electricity purchasing by light and heat
B31) Solar-thermal on-line electricity price commensurately increasing rate
The index refers to the difference value between the photo-thermal on-grid electricity price in the current period and the photo-thermal on-grid electricity price in the previous period and the ratio of the photo-thermal on-grid electricity price in the previous period, and can be defined as:
in the formula: p
i srFor the solar-thermal on-line electricity price in the period,
the solar energy is the solar energy and heat on-line electricity price in the last period. The difference value between the photo-thermal on-grid electricity price in the current period and the photo-thermal on-grid electricity price in the previous period and the ratio of the photo-thermal on-grid electricity price in the previous period reflect the change situation of the photo-thermal on-grid electricity price.
(B4) Risk of electricity purchase in stored energy
B41) Energy storage on-line electricity price commensurately increasing rate
The index refers to the ratio of the difference value between the energy storage internet-surfing electricity price in the current period and the energy storage internet-surfing electricity price in the previous period to the energy storage internet-surfing electricity price in the previous period, and can be defined as:
in the formula: p
i crFor the energy storage on-line electricity price in the period,
and the price of the power is stored for the last period. The difference value between the energy storage internet-surfing electricity price in the current period and the energy storage internet-surfing electricity price in the previous period and the ratio of the energy storage internet-surfing electricity price in the previous period reflect the change condition of the energy storage internet-surfing electricity price.
C. Market risk
(C1) Risk of competition
C11) New energy power generation system comprehensive electricity price
With the enlargement of the installation scale of new energy, the construction cost of the new energy installation is reduced in recent years, and the new energy installation is expected to have a reduced space at the end. Under the market situation that the installation cost of new energy is continuously reduced, the comprehensive electricity price of the new energy power generation system has certain uncertainty.
(C2) Risk of demand
C21) New energy power abandon rate comparable to growth rate
The index refers to the situation of the same-proportion increase of the power abandonment rate of the new energy source unit, and the index is the inverse index.
In the formula:
in order to discard the power rate at the time,
is as followsPower off once.
(C3) Tax risk
C31) Tax preferential strength
The index mainly reflects the preferential strength of the government in the aspect of tax for promoting the development of new energy industry. Expert scoring can be carried out according to the relevant tax policy of the current new energy, and the preferential level is divided into 3 grades: the first-level shows that the preferential degree is large, and the score is 85-100 points; the second level represents that the preferential strength is general, and the score is 60-85 points; the third level represents that the preferential strength is small, and the score is 0-60 points, but not limited to this.
(C4) Risk of financing
C41) Project financing level of each bank and financial institution
The index mainly reflects the support strength of various banks and financial institutions on new energy projects. The project financing level of each bank and financial institution can be divided into 3 grades: the first level represents that the financing is more, the financing level is high, and the score is 85-100 points; the second level represents that the financing level is general, and the score is 60-85 points; the third level indicates that the financing level is low, and the score is 0-60 points, but not limited thereto.
D. Risk of operation
(D1) Degree of technical maturity
D11) Photovoltaic energy conversion efficiency
The indicator is the ratio of the photovoltaic output available energy to the output energy, i.e.
In the formula, η
vIs the photovoltaic energy conversion efficiency, P
voIs the photovoltaic output of useful energy, P
viIs the output energy.
D12) Efficiency of wind power energy conversion
The index is the ratio of the wind power output effective energy to the output energy, i.e.
In the formula, η
wIs wind power energyConversion efficiency, P
woIs wind power outputting effective energy, P
wiIs the output energy.
D13) Light-heat energy conversion efficiency
The index being the ratio of the effective energy output to the energy output by the light and heat, i.e.
In the formula, η
sIs the light-heat energy conversion efficiency, P
soIs photo-thermal to output effective energy, P
siIs the output energy.
D14) Efficiency of energy conversion
The index being the ratio of the stored energy output available energy to the output energy, i.e.
In the formula, η
cIs the energy storage energy conversion efficiency, P
coIs to store energy and output effective energy, P
ciIs the output energy.
(D2) Reliable power supply
D21) Photovoltaic active power output fluctuation ratio
The index is a statistical analysis of historical data, and can be calculated by a percentage change method, and the calculation formula is as follows:
in the formula: w is a
u i+1Is the photovoltaic active power of this stage, w
u iThe photovoltaic active power of the last period. The difference value between the photovoltaic active power in the current period and the photovoltaic active power in the previous period and the ratio of the photovoltaic active power in the previous period reflect the change condition of the photovoltaic active power.
D22) Wind power active power output fluctuation rate
The index is a statistical analysis of historical data, and can be calculated by a percentage change method, and the calculation formula is as follows:
in the formula: w is a
f i+1For the wind power active power of this period, w
f iThe active power of the wind power in the previous period. The difference value between the wind power active power in the current period and the wind power active power in the previous period and the ratio of the wind power active power in the previous period reflect the change condition of the wind power active power.
D23) Light and heat active power output fluctuation ratio
The index is a statistical analysis of historical data, and can be calculated by a percentage change method, and the calculation formula is as follows:
in the formula: w is a
v i+1The photothermal active power at this stage, w
v iThe active power of the previous photo-thermal stage. The difference value of the photo-thermal active power in the current stage and the photo-thermal active power in the previous stage and the ratio of the photo-thermal active power in the previous stage reflect the change condition of the photo-thermal active power.
D24) Energy storage active power output fluctuation rate
The index is a statistical analysis of historical data, and can be calculated by a percentage change method, and the calculation formula is as follows:
in the formula: w is a
k i+1For storing active power for this period, w
k iStoring active power for the last period. The difference value between the active energy storage power in the current period and the active energy storage power in the previous period and the ratio of the active energy storage power in the previous period reflect the change condition of the active energy storage power.
(D3) Device maintenance
D31) Photovoltaic equipment damage rate
This index is the ratio of the damaged photovoltaic device to all photovoltaic devices:
in the formula: a is
uTo damage the number of photovoltaic devices, β
uThe total photovoltaic equipment number.
D32) Damage rate of wind power equipment
The index is the ratio of the damaged wind power equipment to all wind power equipment:
in the formula: a is
wTo damage the number of wind power installations, β
wThe number of all wind power equipment is shown.
D33) Photo-thermal equipment damage rate
This index is the ratio of the damaged photothermal device to the total photothermal devices:
in the formula: a is
sTo destroy the number of photothermal devices β
sThe total number of photothermal devices.
D34) Failure rate of energy storage device
The index is the ratio of the damaged energy storage device to the total energy storage devices:
in the formula: a is
cFor number of damaged energy storage devices β
cThe total number of energy storage devices.
D35) Decay rate of photovoltaic module
This index is the ratio of attenuated photovoltaic modules to all photovoltaic modules:
in the formula: tau is
uNumber of photovoltaic modules to be attenuated, p
uThe number of all photovoltaic modules.
D36) Wind power assembly attenuation rate
The index is the ratio of the attenuated wind power components to all wind power components:
in the formula: tau is
wNumber of wind power components to be attenuated, p
wThe number of all wind power components is shown.
D37) Attenuation rate of photothermal element
This index is the ratio of attenuated photothermal components to total photothermal components:
in the formula: tau is
sNumber of photothermal elements to be attenuated, p
sThe total number of photothermal elements.
D38) Attenuation rate of energy storage assembly
The index is the ratio of the attenuated energy storage components to all energy storage components:
in the formula: tau is
cNumber of energy storage components to be attenuated, p
cThe number of all energy storage components.
(D4) Operation safety
D41) Line overload rate
The overload of the transmission line means that the load on the line is too heavy, so that the current on the line is too large, the line generates too much heat, and the line is insulated and aged or the line is strained. The line overload rate may reflect the frequency of line overload and may be obtained by statistical analysis of historical data, such as recording the number of line overloads for a day, week or month.
D42) Level of relay protection
The index mainly reflects the self-protection level of the system when the line fails. Levels can be classified into 3 levels according to expert scoring: the first level indicates that the relay protection level is high, and the score is 85-100 points; the secondary level indicates that the relay protection level is general, and the score is 60-85 points; and the third level represents that the relay protection level is low, and the score is 0-60 points, but the method is not limited to this.
D43) Rate of operational failure
The index is the ratio of the number of operational failures to the number of total operations:
in the formula: omega is the number of operation errors,
is the total number of operations.
E. Other risks
(E1) Resource condition
E11) Amount of technology exploitable
The index mainly reflects whether the resource condition of a place where the new energy power station is constructed is good or not. Levels can be classified into 3 levels according to expert scoring: the first-level expression technology has high development amount and scores of 85-100 points; the secondary expression technology has general development amount and scores of 60-85 points; the three-level expression technology has low development amount and scores of 0-60 points.
(E2) Natural disasters
E21) Number of natural disasters per year
The natural disaster occurrence rate can reflect the frequency of natural disasters, and can be obtained by statistical analysis of historical data, such as recording the frequency of natural disasters each year.
(E3) Personal safety
E31) Device quality rating
The index mainly reflects the quality of equipment for constructing the new energy power station. Levels can be classified into 3 levels according to expert scoring: the first-level representation equipment is high in quality and scores of 85-100 points; the secondary level indicates that the quality of the equipment is general, and the score is 60-85 points; the third level indicates that the equipment quality is low and the score is 0-60.
E32) Safety protection level
The index mainly reflects the safety protection level of constructing a new energy power station. Levels can be classified into 3 levels according to expert scoring: the first level indicates that the safety protection level is high, and the score is 85-100; the second level shows that the safety protection level is general, and the score is 60-85 points; the third level represents that the safety protection level is low, and the score is 0-60 points, but not limited to.
In step S220, a first evaluation vector representing the operation risk is determined based on the generated association degree between the operation risk indicators and the operation risk indicator of each object to be evaluated. As previously described, the operational risk indicator is constructed to indicate the operational risk of the multi-energy complementary new energy power generation system.
According to one embodiment, step S220 is performed in three steps.
In the first step, a first matrix about all the operation risk indicators is constructed based on the correlation degree between the two operation risk indicators. Then, a first weight of the first matrix is calculated.
In one embodiment, the degree of correlation between the two operational risk indicators can be set by the degree of importance between the two operational risk indicators, which is generally a positive integer 1-9 and its reciprocal. As shown in table 2, a relevancy value rule according to an embodiment of the present invention is shown.
TABLE 2 comparison matrix value rule Table
| Degree of association of index i to index k | Means of | Degree of association of index k to index i |
| 1 | Indexes i and k are equally important | 1 |
| 3 | Index i is slightly more important than |
1/3 |
| 5 | Index i is significantly more important than |
1/5 |
| 7 | Index i is more important than |
1/7 |
| 9 | Index i is extremely important than |
1/9 |
| 2，4，6，8 | Representing the median of two |
1/2，1/4，1/6，1/8 |
And constructing a first matrix according to the grading of the evaluation indexes on the basis of the operation risk index system constructed in the step S210. Namely, a first matrix is constructed by utilizing the first-level index, a second matrix is constructed by utilizing the second-level index, and the like. Assuming that the number of the operation risk indicators is m, the first matrix constructed based on the m indicators is an m × m matrix.
Next, calculating the maximum eigenvalue and the maximum eigenvector of each first matrix, and normalizing the maximum eigenvector, wherein the normalized result is the first weight corresponding to the index.
In still other embodiments, after the first matrix is constructed, the first matrix is checked for consistency, and after the consistency check is passed, the first weight is calculated. Specifically, the process of performing the consistency check on the first matrix may be performed as follows.
Calculating the consistency ratio CR of the first matrix according to the number of the evaluation indexes:
CR＝CI/RI (23)
wherein CI ═ λ
maxN)/(n-1), and the RI can be obtained by checking the average random consistency index according to the number of the evaluation indexes.
If the consistency ratio is smaller than the threshold (optionally, the threshold is 0.10), confirming that the consistency check is passed; otherwise, if the consistency ratio is not less than the threshold value, the first matrix is properly corrected until the consistency check is passed.
And secondly, constructing a second matrix according to the operation risk indexes of the objects to be evaluated. Then, a second weight of the second matrix is calculated. The object to be evaluated may be set according to an actual scene, for example, the system may be divided into several blocks according to positions, and each block serves as one object to be evaluated, but is not limited thereto.
In an embodiment, the weights of the operation risk indicators in the second matrix are calculated by using an entropy weight method to obtain the second weight.
Specifically, the second weight is calculated by the following steps 1) to 3).
1) Note r
ijAn ith evaluation index of a jth object to be evaluated is acquired through data collection to form an original matrix R (R)
ij)
m×nWherein n represents the number of objects to be evaluated, and m represents the number of evaluation indexes. And (4) carrying out normalization processing on the original matrix, as shown in a formula (24), and obtaining a second matrix.
2) According to the definition of entropy, the entropy value of the ith evaluation index is calculated as:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
3) calculating the entropy weight of the i-th index β
iComprises the following steps:
and thirdly, calculating a first evaluation vector by combining the first weight and the second weight.
In one embodiment, the first evaluation vector A
iCalculated by the following formula:
in the formula, α
iA first weight representing the ith operational risk indicator, β
iA second weight representing the ith operational risk indicator, and m represents the number of operational risk indicators.
Subsequently, in step S230, a third matrix is generated based on the evaluation level corresponding to the operation risk index.
According to one embodiment, evaluation factors and evaluation grades of each level of the operation risk index are respectively constructed. And generating a third matrix based on the membership of each level of evaluation factors to the evaluation level.
As described above, in step S210, a hierarchy of operation risk indicators is established, which includes evaluation factors at different levels, and thus, the detailed description is omitted here. The evaluation level may be a comment reflecting the actual condition of each evaluation index of the new energy project. In one embodiment, the evaluation level V is established as { large, generally, not large }, although not limited thereto, and more subdivided evaluation levels, such as 5, 10, etc., may be established.
In one embodiment, let the i-th evaluation factor u
iFor the jth in the evaluation level VDegree of membership of the rating by r
ijMeans that factor u is evaluated
iMembership for the set V of the entire evaluation scale can be expressed as Ri ═ { r ═ r
i1,r
i2,r
i3,…,r
in}. And if the number of the evaluation factors is n, the established third matrix is an n multiplied by n matrix.
Subsequently, in step S240, a second evaluation vector is generated by combining the first evaluation vector and the third matrix, so as to determine an operation risk of the new energy power generation system according to the second evaluation vector.
In one embodiment, the first evaluation vector and the third matrix are combined according to equation (29) to generate a second evaluation vector:
wherein B is the second evaluation vector, A is the first evaluation vector, R is the third enemy,
representing a dot product operation (generalized fuzzy synthesis operation) on two enemies.
Therefore, a second evaluation vector representing the operation risk of the new energy power generation system is calculated. According to the embodiment of the invention, the second evaluation vector records the weight value corresponding to each primary evaluation index, and the larger the weight value is, the larger the risk corresponding to the evaluation index is.
According to the method 200, research is conducted on the operation risk problem of the multi-energy complementary new energy power generation system, and an operation risk index system of the multi-energy complementary new energy power generation system is established on the basis of fully mining the operation risk factors of the multi-energy complementary new energy power generation system. And aiming at each evaluation index, the quantitative result of each evaluation index is obtained in a qualitative or quantitative mode, and a foundation is laid for the subsequent determination of the operation risk of the new energy power generation system. Meanwhile, on the basis of fully considering the characteristics of all evaluation indexes, the operation risk of the new energy power generation system is determined by combining the correlation degree between the operation risk indexes, the membership degree between the operation risk indexes and the evaluation levels and the like.
To further illustrate the process of determining the operational risk of the new energy power generation system based on the method 200, an example analysis is performed below using a multi-energy complementary new energy park in Guangxi as a case. The park is located in a certain district of a certain city, and is established in 2012, and the planned area is 100km
2The primary energy usage of the campus includes electrical, cold and heat loads. In the aspect of electric load, according to a medium load density scheme, the final load of the park is 511 MW; in the cold and heat load aspects, according to the investment progress of a park, considerable increase of cold and heat loads is expected in the next 3 years, the maximum heat load gas consumption of the park is 65t/h and the refrigeration steam consumption is 3.2t/h by 2020, a multi-energy complementary energy supply project mainly comprising natural gas triple co-generation, photovoltaic power generation, an electric vehicle charging station and a water source heat pump is built in the park, and the operation risk of the multi-energy complementary new energy power generation system is evaluated according to the method 200.
First, based on the limitations of data source, computing power, etc., an operation risk index system is generated by screening, as shown in table 3.
TABLE 3 operational Risk indices
According to the above description of the steps, the evaluation indexes of each stage in table 3 are respectively processed, and the corresponding first weight, second weight, and weight value (i.e. combination weight) corresponding to the first evaluation vector are calculated. The weight values of the evaluation indexes at each stage are shown in tables 4 to 6.
TABLE 4 operation Risk weight values corresponding to three-level evaluation indexes
Thus, the weight values of the various secondary evaluation indicators, as shown in table 5, and the weight values of the various primary evaluation indicators, as shown in table 6, can be obtained.
TABLE 5 operational Risk weighted values for Secondary evaluation indicators
TABLE 6 operation Risk weighted value of first-order evaluation index
| First stage | First weight | Second weight | Combining weights |
| Policy Risk A | 0.101 | 0.130 | 0.072 |
| Transaction risk B | 0.412 | 0.130 | 0.146 |
| Market Risk C | 0.215 | 0.184 | 0.133 |
| Running risk D | 0.558 | 0.714 | 0.560 |
| Other risks E | 0.090 | 0.284 | 0.089 |
As can be seen from the weight solution results of the operation risk indicators in the table above, in the evaluation indicator system, the weight occupied by the operation risk elements is larger than that of other indicators, and then the transaction risk and the market risk are listed (see table 6). Therefore, the operation risk influence is large in the operation process of the new energy power generation system. The operational risk is most significantly influenced by the technical maturity (as shown in table 5). Therefore, in practical control, attention should be paid to prevention of operational risks, particularly, improvement of technical maturity therein.
Then, evaluating and scoring each index in the multi-energy complementary new energy park according to expert experience, generating a third matrix by determining the membership degree of evaluation factors, and solving to obtain a second evaluation vector based on the first evaluation vector and the third matrix calculated above
According to the maximum membership degree, the membership degree under a higher risk level is 0.466 at most, thereby indicating that the operation risk of the new energy power generation system of the park is at a higher risk level.
Fig. 3 shows a block diagram of a system 300 for assessing operational risk of a multi-energy complementary new energy generation system according to an embodiment of the invention. As shown in fig. 3, the system 300 includes: an index storage unit 310, an operational risk determination unit 320, and an operational risk evaluation unit 330.
Wherein the index storage unit 310 stores an operation risk index indicating an operation risk of the multi-energy complementary new energy power generation system. For the construction and calculation of the operational risk indicator, reference may be made to the related description in step S210, and details are not repeated here. The operational risk determination unit 320 performs the method 200 as described above based on the stored indicator to calculate a second evaluation vector indicating the operational risk of the multi-energy complementary new energy power generation system. The operation risk evaluation unit 330 evaluates and analyzes the operation risk of the multi-energy complementary new energy power generation system based on the second evaluation vector.
It should be noted that the above descriptions regarding fig. 2 and fig. 3 are complementary to each other, and the repeated contents are not expanded in detail.
According to the embodiment of the invention, the operation risk index is deeply analyzed, and a corresponding prevention and control strategy for the operation risk of the multi-energy complementary new energy power generation system is provided. The method comprises the following specific steps:
(1) policy risk prevention and control strategy
Policy changes have important influence on new energy power generation projects, due to the cleanness and the reproducibility of new energy power generation, new energy power generation development is supported in the state at the present stage, and most policies tend to be encouragement policies, such as a new energy power generation subsidy policy which is centrally implemented and a new energy application subsidy policy of local governments. In the aspect of value-added tax, a policy of halving the value-added tax is implemented. Aiming at the policy risk of wind power generation, firstly, the research depth of the policy environment and the policy risk should be enhanced, the exit of each policy should be accurately mastered, the policy guidance is deeply read, especially, the new energy power generation policy and the power industry policy in relevant areas are researched, especially, the policy analysis in the aspects of tax collection and subsidy is researched, the direction of action is known, a coping scheme is made, a precautionary plan for policy transformation is made, and prospective judgment is needed for policy change. The policy should be handled by analyzing and grasping the policy and communicating with the relevant departments.
1) The setting department focuses on policy changes at any time. Renewable energy projects have the advantage of environmental protection, and in recent years, the nation has vigorously developed new energy industries, and various policies related to new energy power generation projects are more, including electricity price policies, internet policies, subsidy policies, tax policies and the like. The importance degree of renewable power generation projects in China is high, but with the promotion of electric power market reformation, various policy and regulations related to the renewable power generation projects are changed, and the renewable power generation projects are unpredictable and difficult to control for project parties. Therefore, project management parties need to pay active attention to international and national economic policy situations, maintain sensitivity to newly issued policy and regulation, set special personnel to analyze and research new policies and regulations, make active response to the new policies and regulations, and reduce the influence of policy changes on new energy power generation projects.
2) The new energy power generation project provides reasonable advices for local governments, and strives for some favorable policy inclination. The new energy power generation project is concerned with power development and environmental protection and is a power construction project which is valued by local governments. Large-scale projects can be smoothly constructed under the support of government departments, project construction parties need to negotiate with relevant government departments before the implementation stage begins, and partial exemptions are implemented on relevant policy changes to reduce influences and losses. Because the engineering quantity of new energy power generation construction is huge, the needed capital is huge, and the local government policy support is the basis for the new energy power generation project, the new energy power generation project management party strives for the local government policy support.
3) The new energy power generation project needs to be actively and effectively communicated with government departments. The new energy power generation management department needs to establish a special institution, makes matters for coordinating and communicating with each government department in advance, reasonably utilizes each policy and handles preparation for each permission certificate. The project party needs to prepare relevant matters needing event handling in advance and reserve enough time for handling relevant certificates. And actively communicate with government agencies in hopes of improving efficiency, but also have sufficient readiness themselves. The positive communication with government departments can improve the working efficiency of new energy power generation projects and reduce risks.
(2) Transaction risk prevention and control strategy
And establishing a flexible and quick transaction system. The current power market is divided into annual contract trading market, monthly contract trading market, day-ahead market and real-time market. The contract market is an important component of the power market, market risks of power generation enterprises and power grid enterprises are reduced through medium-long term contract transaction, and long-term safe and stable operation of a power system is guaranteed. The market is organized by the trading center every day before day, in order to satisfy short-term load unbalance and organize, its electric quantity is the difference of daily load prediction result and contract power, its competitiveness is big, market risk is also relatively great, reflects short-term supply and demand balance relation and manufacturing cost. Because renewable energy sources, particularly wind power and solar energy, are influenced by weather factors, the power generation stability and the power generation amount of the renewable energy sources cannot be controlled, and although prediction can be made to a certain extent, the power generation arrangement cannot be performed according to the same market of long-term contracts. Under the current national policy, renewable energy is purchased in full amount by a power grid, prices are traded according to the price specified by the country, contract arrangement and bidding problems in a power market do not need to be considered, and the power grid arranges a contract plan and real-time trading according to the power generation amount of the renewable energy. In the process of gradually marketing, how to arrange market classification when the renewable energy power is traded across provinces and regions in the trading center is the end? How to determine its pricing mechanism? How to build a fast and flexible trading hierarchy to meet its characteristics? The method is a new requirement for the construction of a trading system after electric power marketing.
And developing new trade varieties. The generated energy of new energy power generation has the characteristics of difficult prediction and uncontrollable, difficult trading according to medium and long-term contracts, and difficult meeting the requirements of real-time trading due to weak adjustability and poor stability. The proportion of new energy power accessed into the conventional power supply is limited by a power grid structure, namely a certain amount of new energy needs to be provided with a certain amount of conventional controllable energy for operation, and in view of the fact that most new energy power generation projects in China are owned by five power generation groups in China, the transactions can be carried out in a mode of binding live power and new energy power generation, namely a certain amount of renewable energy, power generation enterprises are required to be provided with conventional live power of corresponding quota and adjust reserve capacity for transactions, and first, the power generation enterprises realize the complementation of the live power and the new energy power generation through the advantages of the power generation enterprises, and the power supply operation control is more convenient; and secondly, the trouble that power grid enterprises purchase more regulated spare capacity everywhere can be avoided, and the expense for regulating the spare capacity can be saved. Meanwhile, aiming at the characteristic that the new energy power generation is difficult to predict for a long time, but the short-time prediction has higher accuracy, the characteristic that a more accurate market before time is established to meet the new energy power generation like the market before the day can be considered, and the more precise scheduling of the power grid is realized. Meanwhile, trade varieties such as power generation rights, emission rights and emission markets are gradually developed, so that the new energy can be recycled at certain cost in the markets, the difference between the power generation cost of the new energy and the power generation cost of the traditional energy is reduced, and the new energy has higher market competitiveness.
The development of an auxiliary service market is accelerated, the uncertainty of system operation is increased along with the introduction of new energy for enhancing user side management, and the demand for peak-to-peak frequency modulation is continuously increased. Therefore, in this situation, to ensure safe and economic operation of the power system, it is necessary to accelerate the development of the auxiliary service market, and the generator set or the interruptible load provides guarantee for safe and stable operation of the power grid. Meanwhile, due to the uncertainty of the new energy incoming call, user side management needs to be further enhanced, and the user is guided to increase the electric energy usage in the new energy power generation period or when the system is in a low-ebb running state; and in the time when the new energy is low in power or stops generating, the electric energy is reduced, so that the power balance of the power grid is maintained. For example, in a smart grid construction, a smart electric vehicle charging and discharging device is proposed, in which a storage battery in an electric vehicle supplies power to a grid when system power is insufficient, and the electric vehicle is charged from the grid when the system power is relatively excessive. Partial fluctuation problems caused by new energy are solved through user side response and development of auxiliary services.
(3) Market risk prevention and control strategy
The market risk faced by the new energy power generation project is mainly competition with enterprises such as thermal power generation and photovoltaic power generation, and market competition with other new energy power generation projects. And the market risks such as change of the power price of the internet, change of the required electric quantity and the like exist. Aiming at the market risk of the new energy power generation project, an investor or a manager needs to make index detection and analysis, predict and judge in advance and take precautionary measures of the risk according to the characteristics of the new energy power generation. Prospective judgment of market risk is made in the design stage, effective planning is achieved, and risk is reduced. In the construction stage, the prices of relevant material equipment are researched in advance to achieve effective capital control. In the operation management stage, a plurality of schemes for power sale are needed, and the risk in the aspects of the power price and the required electric quantity of the internet is reduced.
1) Enhancing the market competitiveness of the project. With the advance of the reformation of the electric power market, the electricity selling side is released, and the competition of new energy power generation and the power generation industries of thermal power generation, photovoltaic power generation and the like is gradually intensified. For market competition, investors of new energy power generation projects should firstly understand and research the power market of China and deeply understand all aspects of the new energy power generation market, feasibility research is done at the initial stage of planning and design, and investigation and analysis are done on all aspects of the conditions. The large environment of the new energy power generation industry is considered, and the site is properly selected and reasonably planned. In the aspect of project construction implementation, equipment and materials need to be accurately selected, cost control is increased, and the competitiveness of a project is enhanced. Managers of new energy power generation projects need to accelerate research and development of technologies, improve competitiveness in the technical aspect, reduce risks in the technical aspect of introduction, and meanwhile enhance competitiveness in the power environment.
2) The risk of the generation of the power price and the required electric quantity of the internet is reduced as much as possible. The influence of the on-line electricity price and the required electricity quantity on the new energy power generation project is the largest, and the income of the project is related, so that the industrial policy is analyzed in the early stage of planning and designing the project, the possible situations are estimated in advance, the on-line electricity price and the electricity price are actively communicated with and communicated with an electricity price making department, the on-line electricity quantity and the electricity price are estimated reasonably, the on-line electricity price and the electricity price are in line with the actual situations after project investment, and the project risk caused by estimation deviation is reduced as much as possible. Meanwhile, project management enterprises need to deeply explore the development prospect of the industry, understand the industrial policy, coordinate with the power department, strive for the internet electricity quantity to the maximum extent, and reasonably make the internet electricity price. The electric power demand is considered in each stage of planning design and construction operation of the project, the unit cost of new energy power generation is mostly high, but no fuel cost exists after operation, so that the net surfing electricity price and the required electric quantity have the greatest influence on the benefit of the new energy power generation project, and the most powerful net surfing electricity price is strived for to control the market risk.
(4) Operation risk prevention and control strategy
The new energy power generation project in China is low in starting and development level, and faces high operation risk. The operation risk of a new energy power generation project mainly comes from the lagging of the domestic technology, the new energy power generation technology is a core part of the whole project, if the new energy power generation technology is immature and is not advanced enough in development, the new energy power generation project is not stable enough in development, and a plurality of risks exist. On one hand, the research and development of the technology are enhanced, so that the technology of the new energy power generation project is in a leading level, and the work efficiency of project construction is improved. On the other hand, the technical scheme is revised according to the situation of the project site, and the optimal use degree and the matching property of the technology for the project are ensured. In addition, the tracking and supervision of the operation process are enhanced, the supervision of the material quality is perfected, the effective development of each process is ensured, the quality is ensured, and the event that the problem of the previous process affects the subsequent process is prevented. And a reward and punishment mechanism is also implemented on the engineering quality, a responsibility system is perfected, and the operation risk of the new energy power generation project is reduced.
1) In the project planning and design stage, the technical research, development and innovation are focused. In a planning and designing stage of a new energy power generation project, detailed feasibility research needs to be carried out. And (3) accurately analyzing the advantages and the disadvantages of each technology, and selecting the technology and the resource suitable for the self condition of the project. And (4) the project supplier applies experts for argumentation, reasonably plans the project, compares the advantages and the disadvantages of the technical scheme and formulates a reasonable project scheme by planning. In the case that the new energy power generation project needs to introduce external technologies, a part of operation risks can be transferred to the outside through contracts. Meanwhile, research and development and innovation of new energy power generation technology should be enhanced, talents are introduced, independent research and development and intellectual property are enhanced, and dependence on foreign technologies is reduced.
2) And in the project construction stage, the operation scheme is revised, and the operation supervision is enhanced. And the operation scheme is revised according to the field condition, so that the optimal use degree and the matching of the technology for the project are ensured. In the implementation stage of a new energy power generation project, the construction sequence needs to be reasonably and orderly arranged, and problems are found and the technical scheme is revised in time when each procedure is implemented. The Queen construction technology is changed through field measurement and expert opinions, and the adaptability of the technology to engineering at each stage is guaranteed. A responsibility subject of missing items or engineering quantity change is clearly designed in a contract, and risk responsibility of a constructor for the same is transferred. The constructor and the designer or the owner sign the construction combination and simultaneously determine the responsibility of each item of expense or delay construction period caused by each item of change. If the engineering design is found to be inconsistent with the conditions of the construction site, the construction department and the design department negotiate to change the design scheme, and whether the responsibility belongs to the design party or the owner party needs to be determined. The monitoring of tracking operation is enhanced, the monitoring of material quality is perfected, effective development of each process is guaranteed, the quality is guaranteed, and the event that the subsequent process is influenced by the problem of the previous process is prevented. And a reward and punishment mechanism is also needed to be carried out on the engineering quality, a responsibility system is perfected, and the risk of the new energy power generation project in the construction stage is reduced.
3) And the grid-connected operation work of a new energy power generation project is perfected. The operating power of a new energy power generation project is not stable enough, and grid connection work is difficult. After the new energy power generation project is built and operated, a construction unit is matched with a management department to complete the work of grid-connected power generation. The grid-connected power generation work of the new energy power generation project can be merged into the power grid for operation only after the acceptance of the power grid is obtained. After the new energy power generation project is completed, the new energy power generation project is actively matched with a local power grid unit to carry out on-site acceptance check, and if a problem exists, the new energy power generation project is corrected in time to ensure that the grid-connected requirement is met. After the grid connection, the system is also actively communicated with a power grid unit and is coordinated and matched to ensure the normal operation of new energy power generation. And proper measures are also taken to control the instability of the generated power of the new energy.
4) And carrying out equipment maintenance work of new energy power generation in a manner of whole-person equipment maintenance. The equipment for the new energy power generation project is huge and has the danger of the operation from the air, so the use and the maintenance of the equipment are very important. The equipment selection of the new energy power generation project needs strict examination, equipment bidding needs to be carried out, a supplier with good quality is selected, the quality of the equipment is concerned, and the risk of equipment purchase can be transferred in a contract mode. A spare part system is also required to be established in the construction and operation of the new energy power generation project, so that the equipment can be repaired in time when the equipment is defective, and loss is prevented.
(5) Other Risk prevention and control strategies
In addition to the above risks, other risks such as natural disasters, resource conditions, and personnel safety exist in the new energy power generation project. For the control and management of natural risks, measures such as risk transfer, risk reduction and the like can be adopted. And monitoring geology and weather. The new energy power generation project is to explore weather and addresses at the initial design stage, perform perfect feasibility analysis, monitor in real time, and take countermeasures in time when changes occur in the aspect of geological hydrology, so as to prevent damage or operation of equipment caused by improper treatment, even major accidents. The method has the advantages that weather and geological hydrological conditions are monitored, natural disasters are early warned, and risks can be transferred to insurance companies and the like through insuring.
Strengthen personnel's management, build good working atmosphere. The appropriate management member is selected according to the specific situation of the project, and the organization ability and the professional level of the management personnel are ensured. The ability and the quality of a management layer are emphasized, managers with risk coping ability are selected, perfect management training and responsibility systems are made, and decision errors of the managers are avoided. In the production process, professional technicians need to operate the equipment, technical training is strengthened, the operation of the equipment by the production personnel is enabled to be in accordance with the regulations, and accidents caused by technical errors are reduced. And establishing an effective safety management mechanism to complete various safe works practically. The safety management mechanism of the new energy power generation project comprises a project manager main charge, a project assistant manager sub-management, a safety management department management, a safety officer execution and a constructor cooperation. Safety management personnel at all levels have own safety duties, and the duties need to be clearly determined and implemented in order. If the project manager is a first person responsible for safety, the project manager is responsible for building a safety management system for project implementation, and the like; the project assistant manager is always responsible for effectively operating a safety management system in a responsibility range according to the requirements of the project manager; the members of the safety management department carry out on-site management on the safety civilized construction in the construction process to ensure the safety and the order of the construction process; the site constructor strictly executes the requirement of the safety manager to develop the king job, and the site constructor is matched with the safety manager and timely reflects the potential safety hazard existing in the construction.
It should be appreciated that in the foregoing description of exemplary embodiments of the invention, various features of the invention are sometimes grouped together in a single embodiment, figure, or description thereof for the purpose of streamlining the disclosure and aiding in the understanding of one or more of the various inventive aspects. However, the disclosed method should not be interpreted as reflecting an intention that: that the invention as claimed requires more features than are expressly recited in each claim. Rather, as the following claims reflect, inventive aspects lie in less than all features of a single foregoing disclosed embodiment. Thus, the claims following the detailed description are hereby expressly incorporated into this detailed description, with each claim standing on its own as a separate embodiment of this invention.
Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the modules or units or components of the devices in the examples disclosed herein may be arranged in a device as described in this embodiment or alternatively may be located in one or more devices different from the devices in this example. The modules in the foregoing examples may be combined into one module or may be further divided into multiple sub-modules. Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the modules in the device in an embodiment may be adaptively changed and disposed in one or more devices different from the embodiment. The modules or units or components of the embodiments may be combined into one module or unit or component, and furthermore they may be divided into a plurality of sub-modules or sub-units or sub-components. All of the features disclosed in this specification (including any accompanying claims, abstract and drawings), and all of the processes or elements of any method or apparatus so disclosed, may be combined in any combination, except combinations where at least some of such features and/or processes or elements are mutually exclusive. Each feature disclosed in this specification (including any accompanying claims, abstract and drawings) may be replaced by alternative features serving the same, equivalent or similar purpose, unless expressly stated otherwise.
A8, the method of any one of A1-7, further comprising the steps of: and generating a plurality of operation risk indexes used for indicating the operation risk of the multi-energy complementary new energy power generation system in advance. A9, the method as in any A1-8, wherein the operational risk indicators include one or more of the following: policy risk indicators, trading risk indicators, market risk indicators, operational risk indicators, and other risk indicators.
Furthermore, those skilled in the art will appreciate that while some embodiments described herein include some features included in other embodiments, rather than other features, combinations of features of different embodiments are meant to be within the scope of the invention and form different embodiments. For example, in the following claims, any of the claimed embodiments may be used in any combination. Furthermore, some of the described embodiments are described herein as a method or combination of method elements that can be performed by a processor of a computer system or by other means of performing the described functions. A processor having the necessary instructions for carrying out the method or method elements thus forms a means for carrying out the method or method elements. Further, the elements of the apparatus embodiments described herein are examples of the following apparatus: the apparatus is used to implement the functions performed by the elements for the purpose of carrying out the invention. As used herein, unless otherwise specified the use of the ordinal adjectives "first", "second", "third", etc., to describe a common object, merely indicate that different instances of like objects are being referred to, and are not intended to imply that the objects so described must be in a given sequence, either temporally, spatially, in ranking, or in any other manner.
While the invention has been described with respect to a limited number of embodiments, those skilled in the art, having benefit of this description, will appreciate that other embodiments can be devised which do not depart from the scope of the invention as described herein. Furthermore, it should be noted that the language used in the specification has been principally selected for readability and instructional purposes, and may not have been selected to delineate or circumscribe the inventive subject matter. Accordingly, many modifications and variations will be apparent to those of ordinary skill in the art without departing from the scope and spirit of the appended claims. The present invention has been disclosed in an illustrative rather than a restrictive sense, and the scope of the present invention is defined by the appended claims.
Claims (10)
1. A method of determining operational risk of a multi-energy complementary new energy power generation system, the method being adapted to be executed in a computing device, the method comprising the steps of:
determining a first evaluation vector representing the operation risk based on the correlation degree between the operation risk indexes and the operation risk indexes of the objects to be evaluated, wherein the operation risk indexes are used for indicating the operation risk of the multi-energy complementary new energy power generation system;
generating a third matrix based on the evaluation level corresponding to the operation risk index;
and combining the first evaluation vector and the third matrix to generate a second evaluation vector so as to determine the operation risk of the multi-energy complementary new energy power generation system according to the second evaluation vector.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the step of determining a first evaluation vector representing the operation risk based on the correlation between the operation risk indicators and the operation risk indicator of each object to be evaluated comprises:
constructing a first matrix based on the correlation degree between the two operation risk indexes;
calculating a first weight of the first matrix;
constructing a second matrix according to the operation risk indexes of the objects to be evaluated;
calculating a second weight of the second matrix; and
and calculating a first evaluation vector by combining the first weight and the second weight.
3. The method of claim 2, wherein the step of constructing the first matrix based on the correlation between the two operational risk indicators further comprises:
calculating a consistency ratio of the first matrix;
and if the consistency ratio is not less than a threshold value, correcting the first matrix.
4. The method of claim 2 or 3, wherein the step of calculating the first weight of the first matrix comprises:
calculating a maximum eigenvector of the first matrix;
and carrying out normalization processing on the maximum feature vector to obtain a first weight.
5. The method of any of claims 2-4, wherein the step of calculating the second weights for the second matrix comprises:
and calculating the weight of each operation risk index in the second matrix by using an entropy weight method to obtain a second weight.
6. The method of any one of claims 2-5, wherein the first evaluation vector A
iCalculated by the following formula:
in the formula, α
iA first weight representing the ith operational risk indicator, β
iA second weight representing the ith operational risk indicator, and m represents the number of operational risk indicators.
7. The method of any of claims 1-6, wherein the generating a third matrix based on the evaluation level corresponding to the operational risk indicator comprises:
respectively constructing all levels of evaluation factors and evaluation levels of the operation risk indexes;
and generating a third matrix based on the membership of each grade of evaluation factor to the evaluation grade.
8. An evaluation system for operation risk of a multi-energy complementary new energy power generation system comprises:
the index storage unit is suitable for storing an operation risk index indicating the operation risk of the multi-energy complementary new energy power generation system;
an operational risk determination unit adapted to perform the method of any one of claims 1-9 based on the stored indicator to calculate a second evaluation vector indicative of an operational risk of the multi-energy complementary new energy power generation system;
and the operation risk evaluation unit is suitable for evaluating and analyzing the operation risk of the multi-energy complementary new energy power generation system based on the second evaluation vector.
9. A computing device, comprising:
one or more processors; and
a memory;
one or more programs, wherein the one or more programs are stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the one or more processors, the one or more programs comprising instructions for performing any of the methods of claims 1-7.
10. A computer readable storage medium storing one or more programs, the one or more programs comprising instructions, which when executed by a computing device, cause the computing device to perform any of the methods of claims 1-7.
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