CN109784723A - Power transmission and transformation Project Risk Evaluation and terminal device - Google Patents
Power transmission and transformation Project Risk Evaluation and terminal device Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention provides a kind of power transmission and transformation Project Risk Evaluation and terminal devices, establish power transmission and transformation Output Ratio, and according to i-th of evaluation index in evaluation index to the value of the default different degree of j-th of evaluation index, obtain the judgment matrix A of evaluation index, according to A, the first weight of each evaluation index is calculated by product root method, and the second weight of each evaluation index is calculated according to Information Entropy, by Evaluation formula combining weights, obtain closing weight vectors W；By obtaining the value of evaluation index degree of membership corresponding to each single item comment in default Comment gathers, fuzzy matrix R is obtained；According to W and R, evaluations matrix B corresponding to evaluation index is obtained；Comment corresponding to the maximum value in evaluations matrix is obtained, as comment corresponding to power transmission and transformation project.The present invention finds optimal weights using game theory combination weighting, so that evaluation result is more accurate.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to T & D Technology fields more particularly to a kind of power transmission and transformation Project Risk Evaluation and terminal to set
It is standby.
Background technique
Technical and economic evaluation is carried out to Transmission Projects, analyzes the problem, can be judged for project administrator
Whether project is feasible, determines optimum implementation provides scientific basis；It can reinforce to the comprehensive of Transmission Projects simultaneously
Management provides reference for same type engineering construction, provides experiences and lessons for later project decision and implementation, can
The returns of investment of raising project, and then improve construction efficiency and management level.However, the risk of existing Transmission Projects
Evaluation method has that evaluation result is not accurate.
Summary of the invention
In view of this, the embodiment of the invention provides a kind of power transmission and transformation Project Risk Evaluation and terminal device, with solution
The certainly problem not accurate to the risk evaluation results of Transmission Projects in the prior art.
The first aspect of the embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of power transmission and transformation Project Risk Evaluation, comprising:
Power transmission and transformation Output Ratio is established, the power transmission and transformation Output Ratio includes at least one set of evaluation index,
In, each group of evaluation index includes multiple evaluation indexes；
Any group of evaluation index is obtained as selected group evaluation index, the selected group of evaluation index includes that n evaluation refers to
Mark, according to i-th of evaluation index in the n evaluation index to the value of the default different degree of j-th of evaluation index, described in foundation
Judgment matrix A corresponding to group evaluation index is selected, judgment matrix corresponding to the selected group of evaluation index is the square of n row n column
Gust, the element a in the judgment matrix AijFor indicating that i-th of evaluation index comments j-th in the selected group of evaluation index
The value of the default different degree of valence index；
For any evaluation index in the selected group of evaluation index, according to corresponding to the selected group of evaluation index
Judgment matrix A calculates the first weight of the evaluation index by product root method, calculates the evaluation index according to Information Entropy
The second weight the combining weights of the evaluation index are calculated, according to described according to first weight and second weight
The combining weights of each evaluation index, obtain combined weights corresponding to the selected group of evaluation index in selected group evaluation index
Weight vector W；
For any evaluation index in the selected group of evaluation index, the evaluation index is obtained in default Comment gathers
The value of degree of membership corresponding to each single item comment obtains fuzzy matrix R corresponding to the selected group of evaluation index；
According to combining weights vector W and fuzzy matrix R corresponding to the selected group of evaluation index, described selected group is obtained
Evaluations matrix B corresponding to evaluation index；
Corresponding to including every group of evaluation index at least one set of evaluation index according to the power transmission and transformation Output Ratio
Evaluations matrix, obtain evaluations matrix corresponding to the power transmission and transformation project；
Comment corresponding to the maximum value in evaluations matrix corresponding to the power transmission and transformation project is obtained, as the defeated change
Comment corresponding to electric project.
The second aspect of the embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of computer readable storage medium, the computer-readable storage
Media storage has computer-readable instruction, and the computer-readable instruction realizes following steps when being executed by processor:
Power transmission and transformation Output Ratio is established, the power transmission and transformation Output Ratio includes at least one set of evaluation index,
In, each group of evaluation index includes multiple evaluation indexes；
Any group of evaluation index is obtained as selected group evaluation index, the selected group of evaluation index includes that n evaluation refers to
Mark, according to i-th of evaluation index in the n evaluation index to the value of the default different degree of j-th of evaluation index, described in foundation
Judgment matrix A corresponding to group evaluation index is selected, judgment matrix corresponding to the selected group of evaluation index is the square of n row n column
Gust, the element a in the judgment matrix AijFor indicating that i-th of evaluation index comments j-th in the selected group of evaluation index
The value of the default different degree of valence index；
For any evaluation index in the selected group of evaluation index, according to corresponding to the selected group of evaluation index
Judgment matrix A calculates the first weight of the evaluation index by product root method, calculates the evaluation index according to Information Entropy
The second weight the combining weights of the evaluation index are calculated, according to described according to first weight and second weight
The combining weights of each evaluation index, obtain combined weights corresponding to the selected group of evaluation index in selected group evaluation index
Weight vector W；
For any evaluation index in the selected group of evaluation index, the evaluation index is obtained in default Comment gathers
The value of degree of membership corresponding to each single item comment obtains fuzzy matrix R corresponding to the selected group of evaluation index；
According to combining weights vector W and fuzzy matrix R corresponding to the selected group of evaluation index, described selected group is obtained
Evaluations matrix B corresponding to evaluation index；
Corresponding to including every group of evaluation index at least one set of evaluation index according to the power transmission and transformation Output Ratio
Evaluations matrix, obtain evaluations matrix corresponding to the power transmission and transformation project；
Comment corresponding to the maximum value in evaluations matrix corresponding to the power transmission and transformation project is obtained, as the defeated change
Comment corresponding to electric project.
The third aspect of the embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of terminal device, including memory, processor and is stored in
In the memory and the computer-readable instruction that can run on the processor, the processor executes the computer can
Following steps are realized when reading instruction:
Power transmission and transformation Output Ratio is established, the power transmission and transformation Output Ratio includes at least one set of evaluation index,
In, each group of evaluation index includes multiple evaluation indexes；
Any group of evaluation index is obtained as selected group evaluation index, the selected group of evaluation index includes that n evaluation refers to
Mark, according to i-th of evaluation index in the n evaluation index to the value of the default different degree of j-th of evaluation index, described in foundation
Judgment matrix A corresponding to group evaluation index is selected, judgment matrix corresponding to the selected group of evaluation index is the square of n row n column
Gust, the element a in the judgment matrix AijFor indicating that i-th of evaluation index comments j-th in the selected group of evaluation index
The value of the default different degree of valence index；
For any evaluation index in the selected group of evaluation index, according to corresponding to the selected group of evaluation index
Judgment matrix A calculates the first weight of the evaluation index by product root method, calculates the evaluation index according to Information Entropy
The second weight the combining weights of the evaluation index are calculated, according to described according to first weight and second weight
The combining weights of each evaluation index, obtain combined weights corresponding to the selected group of evaluation index in selected group evaluation index
Weight vector W；
For any evaluation index in the selected group of evaluation index, the evaluation index is obtained in default Comment gathers
The value of degree of membership corresponding to each single item comment obtains fuzzy matrix R corresponding to the selected group of evaluation index；
According to combining weights vector W and fuzzy matrix R corresponding to the selected group of evaluation index, described selected group is obtained
Evaluations matrix B corresponding to evaluation index；
Corresponding to including every group of evaluation index at least one set of evaluation index according to the power transmission and transformation Output Ratio
Evaluations matrix, obtain evaluations matrix corresponding to the power transmission and transformation project；
Comment corresponding to the maximum value in evaluations matrix corresponding to the power transmission and transformation project is obtained, as the defeated change
Comment corresponding to electric project.
The present invention provides a kind of power transmission and transformation Project Risk Evaluation and terminal devices, and the present invention provides a kind of defeated changes
Electric Project Risk Evaluation and terminal device establish power transmission and transformation Output Ratio, and according to i-th of evaluation in evaluation index
Index obtains the judgment matrix A of evaluation index, according to A, by product side to the value of the default different degree of j-th of evaluation index
Root method calculates the first weight of each evaluation index, and the second weight of each evaluation index is calculated according to Information Entropy, passes through combination
Enabling legislation combining weights obtain closing weight vectors W；By obtaining evaluation index in default Comment gathers corresponding to each single item comment
Degree of membership value, obtain fuzzy matrix R；According to W and R, evaluations matrix B corresponding to evaluation index is obtained；Obtain evaluation square
Comment corresponding to maximum value in battle array, as comment corresponding to power transmission and transformation project.The present invention uses game theory combination weighting
Optimal weights are found, so that evaluation result is more accurate.
Detailed description of the invention
It to describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention more clearly, below will be to embodiment or description of the prior art
Needed in attached drawing be briefly described, it should be apparent that, the accompanying drawings in the following description is only of the invention some
Embodiment for those of ordinary skill in the art without any creative labor, can also be according to these
Attached drawing obtains other attached drawings.
Fig. 1 is a kind of flow diagram of power transmission and transformation Project Risk Evaluation provided in an embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 2 is a kind of structural block diagram of power transmission and transformation Evaluation of Risk device provided in an embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 3 is a kind of schematic diagram of power transmission and transformation Evaluation of Risk terminal device provided in an embodiment of the present invention.
Specific embodiment
In being described below, for illustration and not for limitation, the tool of such as particular system structure, technology etc is proposed
Body details, to understand thoroughly the embodiment of the present invention.However, it will be clear to one skilled in the art that there is no these specific
The present invention also may be implemented in the other embodiments of details.In other situations, it omits to well-known system, device, electricity
The detailed description of road and method, in case unnecessary details interferes description of the invention.
In order to illustrate technical solutions according to the invention, the following is a description of specific embodiments.
The embodiment of the invention provides a kind of power transmission and transformation Project Risk Evaluations.In conjunction with Fig. 1, this method comprises:
S101, establishes power transmission and transformation Output Ratio, and the power transmission and transformation Output Ratio includes that at least one set of evaluation refers to
Mark, wherein each group of evaluation index includes multiple evaluation indexes.
Project of transmitting and converting electricity is divided into 3 stages: early-stage preparations, mid-term is built and the operation phase in later period.Follow objective independence, section
Principles, this 3 stages of project of transmitting and converting electricity such as comprehensive, can operate establish index system, mid-early stage using analytic hierarchy process (AHP)
Preparation stage includes Pre-Stage Decision-Making and preparation；The imagination for mainly proposing project construction carries out project feasibility assessment, right
Project construction makes a policy.The mid-term construction phase is since signing a contract project owner and relevant party, until project construction
Construction terminates；Mainly to level of risk management, implementation management level, Engineering Supervision Level, Cost Management is horizontal, data management is horizontal and
Operation is ready for examining or check.Operation phase in later period mainly after the completion of project to the operating condition of project, the economy of generation and
Social benefit, safety and technology etc. are evaluated.
Optionally, establishing power transmission and transformation Output Ratio includes kind of a form:
The first form, the power transmission and transformation Output Ratio only includes one group of evaluation index, such as this group of evaluation index packet
It is built containing early-stage preparations, mid-term and the later period runs these three evaluation indexes；
Second of form, the power transmission and transformation Output Ratio include not only one group of evaluation index, such as power transmission and transformation item
Mesh evaluation index includes d group evaluation index and d is more than or equal to 2, wherein the β group evaluation index in the d group evaluation index is
The sub- index of an evaluation index θ in γ group evaluation index.
When establishing the evaluation index of power transmission and transformation project by second of form, which includes many levels, after
One layer of evaluation index is the further refinement to the part or all of evaluation index of preceding layer.For example, first layer evaluation index is one
Group evaluation index includes three evaluation indexes, i.e. early-stage preparations, mid-term construction and the later period runs this three evaluation indexes, right
Later period in first layer evaluation index runs this evaluation index and is further refined, and one group of evaluation for obtaining the second layer refers to
Mark includes validity and benefits evaluation index, process evaluation index and technical evaluation index, respectively to one group of evaluation of the second layer
Three evaluation indexes in index are refined, and three groups of evaluation indexes ... for belonging to third layer are obtained
S102 obtains any group of evaluation index as selected group evaluation index, and the selected group of evaluation index includes n and comment
Valence index is established according to i-th of evaluation index in the n evaluation index to the value of the default different degree of j-th of evaluation index
Judgment matrix A corresponding to the selected group of evaluation index, judgment matrix corresponding to the selected group of evaluation index are n row n column
Matrix, the element a in the judgment matrix AijFor indicating that i-th of evaluation index is to jth in the selected group of evaluation index
The value of the default different degree of a evaluation index.
Specifically, the form of power transmission and transformation Output Ratio is established according to the first in step S101, power transmission and transformation at this time
Output Ratio only includes one group of evaluation index, at this point, this group of evaluation index is that selected group of evaluation in this step refers to
Mark.The form of power transmission and transformation Output Ratio is established according to second in step S101, at this time power transmission and transformation Output Ratio
It comprising multiple groups evaluation index, and is the evaluation index of layering, one group of evaluation index in later layer evaluation index is in preceding layer
The refinement of one evaluation index, at this point, the one or more groups of evaluation indexes for being located at bottom are used as a selected group evaluation index first, it
Afterwards successively using upper one layer of each group evaluation index as selected group evaluation index, until first layer, i.e., one group of top evaluation
Index selectes group evaluation index as last group is selected.
For selected group evaluation index, the judgment matrix that the item evaluation index of the n in group constructs a n × n is selected to this:
Wherein, the element a in judgment matrix AijFor indicating that i-th of evaluation index is in the selected group of evaluation index
The value of the default different degree of j evaluation index, the importance between parameter use 1~9 scaling law.The meaning of scale is as follows
Shown in table.
And judgment matrix A corresponding to the selected group of evaluation index meets following formula:
Further, be not in itself contradiction to guarantee index when being compared two-by-two, obtain judging square
It needs to carry out consistency check to it after battle array.
Firstly, calculating the coincident indicator CI of the judgment matrix A by following formula:
CI=(λmax-n)/(n-1)
Wherein, λmaxIt is the Maximum characteristic root of the judgment matrix A, the Maximum characteristic root that matrix can be used asks method to obtain.
If CI=0, indicate that constructed judgment matrix has crash consistency, the value of CI is smaller, illustrates judgment matrix
Inconsistent degree it is smaller.
Further, after the coincident indicator CI for calculating the judgment matrix A, this method further include:
The ratio for seeking the coincident indicator CI and random index RI obtains corresponding to the judgment matrix A
Consistency ration CR, wherein the random index RI is obtained by preset table, includes institute in the preset table
State unique mapping relations of random index RI corresponding to the order n and n of judgment matrix A；
If consistency ration CR corresponding to the judgment matrix A is more than or equal to preset value, the judgement is rebuild
Matrix A.
Such as the preset value is 0.10, when CR is less than 0.10, it is believed that judgment matrix has good consistency.If sentencing
Disconnected matrix does not have consistency, then needs to rebuild judgment matrix.The preset table is as follows:
| Order | RI |
| 1 | 0.00 |
| 2 | 0.00 |
| 3 | 0.52 |
| 4 | 0.89 |
| 5 | 1.11 |
| 6 | 1.25 |
| 7 | 1.35 |
| 8 | 1.40 |
S103, for any evaluation index in the selected group of evaluation index, according to selected group of evaluation index institute
Corresponding judgment matrix A calculates the first weight of the evaluation index by product root method, calculates institute's commentary according to Information Entropy
Second weight of valence index calculates the combining weights of the evaluation index, root according to first weight and second weight
According to the combining weights of each evaluation index in the selected group of evaluation index, obtain corresponding to the selected group of evaluation index
Combining weights vector W.
In embodiments of the present invention, it using initial weight is calculated separately based on product root method and Information Entropy, reuses
Combining weights are determined based on the Evaluation formula of game theory, reduce the single caused one-sidedness of evaluation method.
Specifically, the first weight that product root method calculates the evaluation index includes:
For any evaluation index i in the selected group of evaluation index, index i described in the judgment matrix A is obtained
The product of all elements of corresponding a line, and n times root is opened to obtained product, obtain the power of root corresponding to index i
Weight；
The root weight of all evaluation indexes in the selected group of evaluation index is normalized, is obtained described
Selected the first weights omega for organizing each evaluation index in evaluation index 'i。
Specifically, calculating root weight corresponding to the index i by following formula:
Wherein, i, j=1,2 ... ... n.
It is rightBe normalized with obtain the first weights omega of each evaluation index 'iInclude:
First weight of all evaluation indexes in selected group evaluation index constitutes following matrix:
W'=[w1',w2',…,wn']T
Second weight for calculating the evaluation index according to Information Entropy includes:
By n evaluation index in the selected group of evaluation index, each evaluation index pair in the n evaluation index
The value of the degree of membership of each comment item in m kind comment item is answered, initial evaluation matrix X=(x is constitutedij)n×m, pass through following formula meter
Calculate the second weights omega of evaluation index i "i:
Specifically, entropy is a kind of measurement of the unordered degree of system.The entropy weight of each index is calculated using comentropy, if certain refers to
Target entropy is bigger, illustrates that the degree of variation of its index value is smaller, the information content provided is fewer.The role in overall merit
Smaller, weight is also smaller.
Assuming that each index has m kind comment item, and the probability that every kind of comment occurs is pj(j=1,2 ... ... m) when, then be
The entropy of system may be defined as
Wherein, pjMeet 0≤pj≤ 1,When the probability that various comments occur is equal, i.e.,(j
=1,2 ... ... m) entropy obtain maximum value Hmax=lnm.
By n evaluation index in the selected group of evaluation index, each evaluation index pair in the n evaluation index
The value of the degree of membership of each comment item in m kind comment item is answered, initial evaluation matrix X=(x is constitutedij)n×m, i-th evaluation index
Comentropy calculate are as follows:
Thereby determine that second weight of i-th evaluation index:
Second weight of all evaluation indexes in selected group evaluation index constitutes following matrix:
wii=[w1”,w2”,…,wn”]T
Further, according to the first weight and second weight, the combining weights for calculating the evaluation index include:
The first weight sets is constructed according to the first weight of all evaluation indexes in the selected group of evaluation index；
The second weight sets is constructed according to the second weight of all evaluation indexes in the selected group of evaluation index；
By first weight sets and second weight sets, by first weight sets and second weight sets into
Row linear combination obtains:
In formula, ak> 0, k=1 or k=2, as k=1, ukFor the first weight sets, as k=2, ukFor the second weight sets,
akFor weight coefficient；
Calculate following formula:
In formula, i=1,2；
It seeks optimizing first derivative:
In formula, i=1,2；
First derivative will be optimized and be converted into following formula:
Solve a1、a2, normalized obtains:
Obtain combining weights u*:
Specifically, Evaluation formula is substantially that the initial weight for obtaining a variety of methods is integrated, one is obtained more
Objective, reasonable combining weights.Because stress face difference, various weighing computation method acquired results may difference it is very big, to mention
The science of high weight calculation, reduces subjectivity, one-sidedness influence, and the application uses the Evaluation formula based on game theory.
Game theory is that research has the mathematical theory and method struggled against or compete property phenomenon, and game decision-making is that policymaker is
The decision realizing number one maximization or itself minimization of loss and carrying out.In decision process, game each side coordinates one
Cause is sought to maximize common interests, i.e. minimum deviation between searching combining weights and each weight.
Tax power is carried out to index using L kind method, thus constructs a basic weight sets:
uk=[uk1,uk2,…,ukm]T, k=1,2 ..., L
Any linear combination of L vector are as follows:
U is a comprehensive weight vector of L kind weight sets in formula；akIt is weight coefficient.In order to find most satisfied weight,
To L linear combination coefficient a in formulakIt optimizes, makes u and ukDeviation minimize:
According to differentiation of a matrix property, it is known that optimize first derivative are as follows:
For system of linear equations, optimizing first derivative condition be can be exchanged into:
Find out (a1,a2,…aL), then normalized obtains formula:
Obtain combining weights u*:
S104 obtains the evaluation index and comments default for any evaluation index in the selected group of evaluation index
Language concentrates the value of degree of membership corresponding to each single item comment, obtains fuzzy matrix R corresponding to the selected group of evaluation index.
Specifically, obtaining the value packet of evaluation index degree of membership corresponding to each single item comment in default Comment gathers
It includes:
Comment is selected for any one, obtains the total number of persons a for providing the selected comment for the evaluation index1, meter
Calculate a1With the total number of persons a for participating in evaluation2Ratio, obtain the degree of membership of the selected comment corresponding to the evaluation index
Value.
That is, carrying out fuzzy overall evaluation to the target that need to be evaluated on the basis of index weights are fixed.Determination refers to first
Target Comment gathers, V={ v1,v2,…vm, the given Comment gathers V=of this article it is excellent, it is good, in, it is poor }.Then, mould is carried out to each index
Paste evaluation determines index in Comment gathers to the subjection degree r of each commentij:
Wherein, i=1,2 ... ... n, j=1,2 ... ... m calculate each index to the subjection degree of comment each in Comment gathers,
Fuzzy matrix then can be obtained:
S105 is obtained described according to combining weights vector W and fuzzy matrix R corresponding to the selected group of evaluation index
Evaluations matrix B corresponding to selected group evaluation index.
After obtaining combining weights vector W and fuzzy matrix R corresponding to selected group evaluation index, obtained by following formula
To evaluations matrix B corresponding to the selected group of evaluation index:
B=W.R=[b1,b2,…bm]
In formulaFor fuzzy operator；B is the result after each layer of evaluation.If occurring in calculated resultFeelings
Condition then needs to standardize.
S106 includes every group of evaluation index institute at least one set of evaluation index according to the power transmission and transformation Output Ratio
Corresponding evaluations matrix obtains evaluations matrix corresponding to the power transmission and transformation project.
When multi-layer Fuzzy is evaluated, first bottom index is evaluated, then successively upper layer index is evaluated, until obtaining
After top comprehensive evaluation result, final evaluation result is determined according to maximum membership grade principle.
S107 obtains comment corresponding to the maximum value in evaluations matrix corresponding to the power transmission and transformation project, as institute
State comment corresponding to power transmission and transformation project.
According to maximum subjection principle, obtain corresponding to the maximum value in evaluations matrix corresponding to the power transmission and transformation project
Comment, as comment corresponding to the power transmission and transformation project.
Further, the embodiment of the present invention provides following example:
Method provided in an embodiment of the present invention has been applied in saving certain electricity power engineering.In higher authority, construction
The relevant personnel such as the expert of enterprise judge index importance, and after providing comment to index performance, according to this
The appraisement system for applying for building, is finally calculated the evaluation result of smart grid project of transmitting and converting electricity.Herein only choose the 1st layer and
2nd, 3,4 layer of part index number is as example, and it is as shown in the table respectively for the combining weights after calculating.
1st layer of index and weight
| First index | Combining weights |
| Early-stage preparations | 0.31818 |
| Mid-term is built | 0.39773 |
| Later period operation | 0.28409 |
2nd, 3 layer of part index number and weight
4th layer of part index number and weight:
According to formula and upper table, fuzzy matrix is obtained:
Fuzzy evaluation is carried out to the 4th layer of index:
The 1st layer finally successively is shown until the 1st layer of index carries out fuzzy evaluation to the 3rd layer, the 2nd layer according to same method
Evaluation result isWherein maximum value is
0.50999, according to maximum membership grade principle, the evaluation result of province's project of transmitting and converting electricity is good grade.
The present invention provides a kind of power transmission and transformation Project Risk Evaluations, by establishing power transmission and transformation Output Ratio, and
According to i-th of evaluation index in evaluation index to the value of the default different degree of j-th of evaluation index, the judgement of evaluation index is obtained
Matrix A calculates the first weight of each evaluation index by product root method according to A, calculates each evaluation according to Information Entropy and refers to
The second weight of target obtains closing weight vectors W by Evaluation formula combining weights；It is commented by obtaining evaluation index default
Language concentrates the value of degree of membership corresponding to each single item comment, obtains fuzzy matrix R；According to W and R, obtain corresponding to evaluation index
Evaluations matrix B；Comment corresponding to the maximum value in evaluations matrix is obtained, as comment corresponding to power transmission and transformation project.This
Invention finds optimal weights using game theory combination weighting, so that evaluation result is more accurate.
In conjunction with Fig. 2, the embodiment of the invention provides a kind of device of power transmission and transformation Evaluation of Risk, which includes: to comment
Valence Index Establishment unit 21, judgment matrix establish unit 22, combining weights computing unit 23, and fuzzy matrix is established unit 24 and commented
Valence matrix establishes unit 25；
Evaluation index establishes unit 21, for establishing power transmission and transformation Output Ratio, the power transmission and transformation Output Ratio
Include at least one set of evaluation index, wherein each group of evaluation index includes multiple evaluation indexes；
Judgment matrix establishes unit 22, is used as a selected group evaluation index for obtaining any group of evaluation index, described selected
Group evaluation index includes n evaluation index, according to i-th of evaluation index in the n evaluation index to j-th evaluation index
The value of default different degree, establishes judgment matrix A corresponding to the selected group of evaluation index, corresponding to the selected group of evaluation index
Judgment matrix be n row n column matrix, the element a in the judgment matrix AijFor indicating in the selected group of evaluation index
Value of i-th of evaluation index to the default different degree of j-th of evaluation index；
Combining weights computing unit 23, any evaluation index for being directed in the selected group of evaluation index, according to institute
Judgment matrix A corresponding to selected group evaluation index is stated, the first weight of the evaluation index, root are calculated by product root method
The second weight that the evaluation index is calculated according to Information Entropy calculates institute's commentary according to first weight and second weight
The combining weights of valence index obtain the choosing according to the combining weights of each evaluation index in the selected group of evaluation index
Surely combining weights vector W corresponding to evaluation index is organized；
Fuzzy matrix establishes unit 24, for obtaining institute for any evaluation index in the selected group of evaluation index
The value for stating evaluation index degree of membership corresponding to each single item comment in default Comment gathers, obtains selected group of evaluation index institute
Corresponding fuzzy matrix R；
Evaluations matrix establishes unit 25, for the combining weights vector W according to corresponding to the selected group of evaluation index and
Fuzzy matrix R obtains evaluations matrix B corresponding to the selected group of evaluation index；
Evaluations matrix establishes unit 25, is also used to include at least one set of evaluation according to the power transmission and transformation Output Ratio
Evaluations matrix corresponding to every group of evaluation index in index, obtains evaluations matrix corresponding to the power transmission and transformation project；
Evaluations matrix establishes unit 25, is also used to obtain the maximum value in evaluations matrix corresponding to the power transmission and transformation project
Corresponding comment, as comment corresponding to the power transmission and transformation project.
Optionally, if the power transmission and transformation Output Ratio includes d group evaluation index and d is more than or equal to 2, wherein the d
β group evaluation index in group evaluation index is the sub- index of an evaluation index θ in γ group evaluation index, evaluations matrix
Unit 25 is established to be also used to:
Evaluations matrix B corresponding to the β group evaluation index is obtained, is commented as the evaluation index θ in described preset
Language concentrates the value of degree of membership corresponding to each single item comment.
Optionally, judgment matrix A corresponding to the selected group of evaluation index meets following formula:
Optionally, judgment matrix establishes unit 22 after establishing judgment matrix A corresponding to the selected group of evaluation index,
It is also used to:
The coincident indicator CI of the judgment matrix A is calculated by following formula:
CI=(λmax-n)/(n-1)
Wherein, λmaxIt is the Maximum characteristic root of the judgment matrix A.
Optionally, judgment matrix establishes unit 22 after the coincident indicator CI for calculating the judgment matrix A, also uses
In:
The ratio for seeking the coincident indicator CI and random index RI obtains corresponding to the judgment matrix A
Consistency ration CR, wherein the random index RI is obtained by preset table, includes institute in the preset table
State unique mapping relations of random index RI corresponding to the order n and n of judgment matrix A；
If consistency ration CR corresponding to the judgment matrix A is more than or equal to preset value, the judgement is rebuild
Matrix A.
Optionally, combining weights computing unit 23 is used for:
For any evaluation index i in the selected group of evaluation index, index i described in the judgment matrix A is obtained
The product of all elements of corresponding a line, and n times root is opened to obtained product, obtain the power of root corresponding to index i
Weight；
The root weight of all evaluation indexes in the selected group of evaluation index is normalized, is obtained described
Selected the first weights omega for organizing each evaluation index in evaluation index 'i；
Optionally, combining weights computing unit 23 is used for:
By n evaluation index in the selected group of evaluation index, each evaluation index pair in the n evaluation index
The value of the degree of membership of each comment item in m kind comment item is answered, initial evaluation matrix X=(x is constitutedij)n×m, pass through following formula meter
Calculate the second weights omega of evaluation index i "i:
Optionally, combining weights computing unit 23 is used for:
The first weight sets is constructed according to the first weight of all evaluation indexes in the selected group of evaluation index；
The second weight sets is constructed according to the second weight of all evaluation indexes in the selected group of evaluation index；
By first weight sets and second weight sets, by first weight sets and second weight sets into
Row linear combination obtains:
In formula, ak> 0, k=1 or k=2, as k=1, ukFor the first weight sets, as k=2, ukFor the second weight sets,
akFor weight coefficient；
Calculate following formula:
In formula, i=1,2；
It seeks optimizing first derivative:
In formula, i=1,2；
First derivative will be optimized and be converted into following formula:
Solve a1、a2, normalized obtains:
Obtain combining weights u*:
Optionally, fuzzy matrix is established unit 24 and is used for:
Comment is selected for any one, obtains the total number of persons a for providing the selected comment for the evaluation index1, meter
Calculate a1With the total number of persons a for participating in evaluation2Ratio, obtain the degree of membership of the selected comment corresponding to the evaluation index
Value.
The embodiment of the invention provides a kind of power transmission and transformation Evaluation of Risk devices, and the device is by establishing power transmission and transformation project
Evaluation index, and according to i-th of evaluation index in evaluation index to the value of the default different degree of j-th of evaluation index, acquisition is commented
The judgment matrix A of valence index calculates the first weight of each evaluation index by product root method, according to Information Entropy meter according to A
The second weight for calculating each evaluation index obtains closing weight vectors W by Evaluation formula combining weights；It is evaluated by obtaining
The value of index degree of membership corresponding to each single item comment in default Comment gathers, obtains fuzzy matrix R；According to W and R, commented
Evaluations matrix B corresponding to valence index；Comment corresponding to the maximum value in evaluations matrix is obtained, institute is right as power transmission and transformation project
The comment answered.The present invention finds optimal weights using game theory combination weighting, so that evaluation result is more accurate.
Fig. 3 is a kind of schematic diagram of terminal device provided in an embodiment of the present invention.As shown in figure 3, the terminal of the embodiment
Equipment 3 includes: processor 30, memory 31 and is stored in the memory 31 and can run on the processor 30
Computer program 32, such as power transmission and transformation Evaluation of Risk program.The processor 30 executes real when the computer program 32
Step in existing above-mentioned each power transmission and transformation Project Risk Evaluation embodiment, such as step 101 shown in FIG. 1 is to 107.Or
Person, the processor 30 realize the function of each module/unit in above-mentioned each Installation practice when executing the computer program 32,
Such as the function of module 21 to 25 shown in Fig. 2.
Illustratively, the computer program 32 can be divided into one or more module/units, it is one or
Multiple module/units are stored in the memory 31, and are executed by the processor 30, to complete the present invention.Described one
A or multiple module/units can be the series of computation machine program instruction section that can complete specific function, which is used for
Implementation procedure of the computer program 32 in the terminal device 3 is described.
The terminal device 3 can be the calculating such as desktop PC, notebook, palm PC and cloud server and set
It is standby.The terminal device may include, but be not limited only to, processor 30, memory 31.It will be understood by those skilled in the art that Fig. 3
The only example of terminal device 3 does not constitute the restriction to terminal device 3, may include than illustrating more or fewer portions
Part perhaps combines certain components or different components, such as the terminal device can also include input-output equipment, net
Network access device, bus etc..
The processor 30 can be central processing unit (Central Processing Unit, CPU), can also be
Other general processors, digital signal processor (Digital Signal Processor, DSP), specific integrated circuit
(Application Specific Integrated Circuit, ASIC), field programmable gate array (Field-
Programmable Gate Array, FPGA) either other programmable logic device, discrete gate or transistor logic,
Discrete hardware components etc..General processor can be microprocessor or the processor is also possible to any conventional processor
Deng.
The memory 31 can be the internal storage unit of the terminal device 3, such as the hard disk or interior of terminal device 3
It deposits.The memory 31 is also possible to the External memory equipment of the terminal device 3, such as be equipped on the terminal device 3
Plug-in type hard disk, intelligent memory card (Smart Media Card, SMC), secure digital (Secure Digital, SD) card dodge
Deposit card (Flash Card) etc..Further, the memory 31 can also both include the storage inside list of the terminal device 3
Member also includes External memory equipment.The memory 31 is for storing needed for the computer program and the terminal device
Other programs and data.The memory 31 can be also used for temporarily storing the data that has exported or will export.
The embodiment of the present invention also provides a kind of computer readable storage medium, and the computer-readable recording medium storage has
Computer program, the computer program realize that power transmission and transformation project risk described in any of the above-described embodiment is commented when being executed by processor
The step of valence method.
It, can also be in addition, the functional units in various embodiments of the present invention may be integrated into one processing unit
It is that each unit physically exists alone, can also be integrated in one unit with two or more units.Above-mentioned integrated list
Member both can take the form of hardware realization, can also realize in the form of software functional units.
If the integrated unit is realized in the form of SFU software functional unit and sells or use as independent product
When, it can store in a computer readable storage medium.Based on this understanding, technical solution of the present invention is substantially
The all or part of the part that contributes to existing technology or the technical solution can be in the form of software products in other words
It embodies, which is stored in a storage medium, including some instructions are used so that a computer
Equipment (can be personal computer, server or the network equipment etc.) executes the complete of each embodiment the method for the present invention
Portion or part steps.And storage medium above-mentioned includes: USB flash disk, mobile hard disk, read-only memory (ROM, Read-Only
Memory), random access memory (RAM, Random Access Memory), magnetic or disk etc. are various can store journey
The medium of sequence code.
Embodiment described above is merely illustrative of the technical solution of the present invention, rather than its limitations；Although referring to aforementioned reality
Applying example, invention is explained in detail, those skilled in the art should understand that: it still can be to aforementioned each
Technical solution documented by embodiment is modified or equivalent replacement of some of the technical features；And these are modified
Or replacement, the essence of corresponding technical solution is departed from the spirit and scope of the technical scheme of various embodiments of the present invention, it should all
It is included within protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of power transmission and transformation Project Risk Evaluation, which is characterized in that this method comprises:
Power transmission and transformation Output Ratio is established, the power transmission and transformation Output Ratio includes at least one set of evaluation index, wherein every
One group of evaluation index includes multiple evaluation indexes；
Any group of evaluation index is obtained as selected group evaluation index, the selected group of evaluation index includes n evaluation index, root
According to i-th of evaluation index in the n evaluation index to the value of the default different degree of j-th of evaluation index, establish described selected
Judgment matrix A corresponding to evaluation index is organized, judgment matrix corresponding to the selected group of evaluation index is the matrix of n row n column, institute
State the element a in judgment matrix AijFor indicating that i-th of evaluation index is to j-th of evaluation index in the selected group of evaluation index
Default different degree value；
For any evaluation index in the selected group of evaluation index, according to judgement corresponding to the selected group of evaluation index
Matrix A calculates the first weight of the evaluation index by product root method, calculates the of the evaluation index according to Information Entropy
Two weights calculate the combining weights of the evaluation index according to first weight and second weight, according to described selected
Group evaluation index in each evaluation index combining weights, obtain combining weights corresponding to the selected group of evaluation index to
Measure W；
For any evaluation index in the selected group of evaluation index, it is each in default Comment gathers to obtain the evaluation index
The value of degree of membership corresponding to item comment, obtains fuzzy matrix R corresponding to the selected group of evaluation index；
According to combining weights vector W and fuzzy matrix R corresponding to the selected group of evaluation index, the selected group of evaluation is obtained
Evaluations matrix B corresponding to index；
According to the power transmission and transformation Output Ratio include every group of evaluation index at least one set of evaluation index corresponding to comment
Valence matrix obtains evaluations matrix corresponding to the power transmission and transformation project；
Comment corresponding to the maximum value in evaluations matrix corresponding to the power transmission and transformation project is obtained, as the power transmission and transformation item
Comment corresponding to mesh.
2. power transmission and transformation Project Risk Evaluation according to claim 1, which is characterized in that if the power transmission and transformation project is commented
Valence index includes d group evaluation index and d is more than or equal to 2, wherein the β group evaluation index in the d group evaluation index is γ
The sub- index of an evaluation index θ in group evaluation index, this method further include:
Evaluations matrix B corresponding to the β group evaluation index is obtained, as the evaluation index θ in the default Comment gathers
The value of degree of membership corresponding to middle each single item comment.
3. power transmission and transformation Project Risk Evaluation according to claim 1 or 2, which is characterized in that the selected group of evaluation
Judgment matrix A corresponding to index meets following formula:
4. power transmission and transformation Project Risk Evaluation according to claim 3, which is characterized in that commented establishing described selected group
After judgment matrix A corresponding to valence index, this method further include:
The coincident indicator CI of the judgment matrix A is calculated by following formula:
CI=(λmax-n)/(n-1)
Wherein, λmaxIt is the Maximum characteristic root of the judgment matrix A.
5. power transmission and transformation Project Risk Evaluation according to claim 4, which is characterized in that calculating the judgment matrix
After the coincident indicator CI of A, this method further include:
The ratio for seeking the coincident indicator CI and random index RI obtains one corresponding to the judgment matrix A
Cause sex ratio CR, wherein the random index RI is obtained by preset table, is sentenced in the preset table comprising described
Unique mapping relations of random index RI corresponding to the order n and n of disconnected matrix A；
If consistency ration CR corresponding to the judgment matrix A is more than or equal to preset value, the judgment matrix is rebuild
A。
6. power transmission and transformation Project Risk Evaluation according to claim 1-5, which is characterized in that described by multiplying
Product root method calculates the first weight of the evaluation index and includes:
For any evaluation index i in the selected group of evaluation index, it is right to obtain the institute of index i described in the judgment matrix A
The product of all elements of a line answered, and n times root is opened to obtained product, obtain root weight corresponding to index i；
The root weight of all evaluation indexes in the selected group of evaluation index is normalized, is obtained described selected
Group evaluation index in each evaluation index the first weights omega 'i；
Second weight for calculating the evaluation index according to Information Entropy includes:
By in the selected group of evaluation index n evaluation index, each evaluation index corresponds to m in the n evaluation index
The value of the degree of membership of each comment item, constitutes initial evaluation matrix X=(x in kind comment itemij)n×m, calculated by following formula
Evaluation index i the second weights omega "i:
7. power transmission and transformation Project Risk Evaluation according to claim 6, which is characterized in that described according to first power
Weight and second weight, the combining weights for calculating the evaluation index include:
The first weight sets is constructed according to the first weight of all evaluation indexes in the selected group of evaluation index；
The second weight sets is constructed according to the second weight of all evaluation indexes in the selected group of evaluation index；
By first weight sets and second weight sets, first weight sets and second weight sets are subjected to line
Property combines to obtain:
In formula, ak> 0, k=1 or k=2, as k=1, ukFor the first weight sets, as k=2, ukFor the second weight sets, akFor power
Weight coefficient；
Calculate following formula:
In formula, i=1,2；
It seeks optimizing first derivative:
In formula, i=1,2；
First derivative will be optimized and be converted into following formula:
Solve a1、a2, normalized obtains:
Obtain combining weights u*:
8. power transmission and transformation Project Risk Evaluation according to claim 1, which is characterized in that the acquisition evaluation refers to
The value for being marked on degree of membership corresponding to each single item comment in default Comment gathers includes:
Comment is selected for any one, obtains the total number of persons a for providing the selected comment for the evaluation index1, calculate a1With
Participate in the total number of persons a of evaluation2Ratio, obtain the value of the degree of membership of the selected comment corresponding to the evaluation index.
9. a kind of computer readable storage medium, the computer-readable recording medium storage has computer program, and feature exists
In when the computer program is executed by processor the step of any one of such as claim 1 to 8 of realization the method.
10. a kind of terminal device, which is characterized in that the terminal device includes memory, processor, is stored on the memory
There is the computer program that can be run on the processor, is realized when the processor executes the computer program as right is wanted
The step of seeking any one of 1 to 8 the method.
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| CN110782369A (en) * | 2019-10-29 | 2020-02-11 | 青海格尔木鲁能新能源有限公司 | Method for determining operation risk of multi-energy complementary new energy power generation system and evaluation system |
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| CN110782369A (en) * | 2019-10-29 | 2020-02-11 | 青海格尔木鲁能新能源有限公司 | Method for determining operation risk of multi-energy complementary new energy power generation system and evaluation system |
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