Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide an optical charging and storing system operation benefit evaluation method based on an improved matter element extension model, which is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
step 1: data acquisition and pretreatment; according to the technical characteristics and functions of the optical charging and storing system, selecting indexes from the four aspects of profitability, debt paying capacity, operation capacity and income level, preliminarily constructing an operation benefit evaluation index system, collecting sample data of the index values of the indexes, and then carrying out normalization processing on a criterion layer judgment matrix of the sample;
step 2: determining the combined weight of the evaluation indexes; determining the weight of the comprehensive evaluation index of the operational benefit of the optical charge storage system by integrating subjective and objective factors by adopting an analytic hierarchy process and an entropy weight method;
and step 3: performing operation benefit evaluation on the optical charging and storing system based on the matter element extension model; based on the classical matter element extension model, an improved matter element extension model is formed by introducing a calculation method of determining the degree of association by being maximally close to the median of the classical domain, so that the operation benefits of the optical storage system are comprehensively evaluated.
The method for performing normalization processing on the criterion layer judgment matrix of the sample in the step1 specifically comprises the following steps:
assuming that n evaluation indexes and m evaluation objects are provided, an index matrix X ═ X is first constructedij)m×nThen, carrying out non-dimensionalization on the index matrix:
wherein, x'ijA value representing the j-th evaluation index of the i-th evaluation object after the index matrix standardization; x is the number ofijA numerical value indicating a j-th evaluation index of an i-th evaluation object; min (x)j) Represents the minimum value in the jth evaluation index; max (x)j) Represents the maximum value of the j-th evaluation index.
In the step2, the specific steps of subjectively weighting by adopting an analytic hierarchy process are as follows:
step C1: establishing a judgment matrix; quantifying the judgment by adopting a nine-level scale method, and constructing a judgment matrix U-U (U-U) according to the importance of the indexes of the same level relative to the indexes of the upper layerij)n×n;
Step C2: sorting the hierarchical lists, and carrying out consistency check; judging the matrix U ═ U by solving
ij)
n×nThe feature root problem of (a) is to obtain a feature vector W and normalize the feature vector W to obtain a standard matrix a ═ a
ij)
n×nObtaining the relative importance of the hierarchical element to the corresponding upper hierarchical element; calculating a consistency index
Wherein λ
maxFor the maximum eigenvalue, the consistency of the judgment matrix is checked, and when the check coefficient is satisfied
Then, wherein RI is an average random consistency index, and the judgment matrix is considered to have satisfactory consistency;
step C3: overall hierarchical sorting; sequentially calculating from top to bottom layer by layer along the hierarchical structure, and calculating the synthetic weight W of the bottommost layer relative to the highest layer of the target layer1=[ν1,ν2,…,νm]T。
In the step2, the entropy weight method is adopted to carry out objective weighting, and the specific steps are as follows:
step S1: acquiring an information entropy; information entropy EjThe calculation formula is as follows:
in the formula, PijThe j index accounts for the specific gravity of the j index in the ith evaluation object;
step S2: calculating the entropy values of the profitability index, the repayment ability index and the operation ability index and the objective weight of the evaluation factors of each target layer; the information entropy normalization processing is carried out to obtain index weight, and the calculation formula is as follows:
in the formula, vjRepresents the weight of the j-th index.
In the step2, the weight for determining the comprehensive evaluation index of the operation benefit of the optical charging and storage system by synthesizing the subjective and objective factors is specifically as follows:
ri=αWi+βVi (5)
in the formula, riWeights to weight the combinations; wiSubjective weights determined for the analytic hierarchy process; viAn objective weight determined for the entropy weight method; α and β represent the importance of the objective weight, and α is 0.5 and β is 0.5.
In the step3, the specific steps of comprehensively evaluating the operation benefits of the optical charging and storage system by adopting the improved matter element extension model are as follows:
step D1: determining classical domains
In the formula: u shapejJ divided evaluation levels; c1,C2,…,CnTo evaluate the index system; xjnTo evaluate the grade UjEvaluation index CnA defined magnitude range, Xjn=(ajn,bjn),ajnAnd bjnMinimum and maximum values of the magnitude range, respectively;
step D2: determining section domains
In the formula: u shapepThe whole evaluation grade is obtained; interval Xpn=(apn,bpn) Is UpWith respect to CnThe specified magnitude range, i.e., section domain;
step D3: determining a degree of association
In the formula, Kj(xi) The correlation function value of the ith index for the jth grade; ρ (x)i,xin) The distance between the element value to be evaluated of the ith index and the classical domain; | ρinL is the distance of the ith index with respect to the jth level classical domain;
when x isi∈X1And ask for K1(xn) The method comprises the following steps:
when x isi∈XmAnd ask for Km(xn) The method comprises the following steps:
in other cases:
step D4: determining a comprehensive degree of association
Comprehensive relevance K of object to be evaluated to each evaluation gradej(pij) The calculation formula is as follows:
Kj(pij)=∑σiKj(xi) (12)
in the formula, pijIs an object to be evaluated; sigmaiIs the weight of the ith evaluation index.
The invention has the beneficial effects that:
by providing the comprehensive evaluation method for the operation benefit of the optical charging and storing system for improving the matter element extension model, the standardization and the effectiveness of the operation benefit analysis of the optical charging and storing system can be further improved, the operation condition of the current optical charging and storing system can be more comprehensively reflected, and the future operation decision of an enterprise can be more reliably supported.
Detailed Description
The invention provides an improved matter element extension model-based operation benefit evaluation method for an optical charging and storing system, which is further described with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.
Fig. 1 is a general flowchart of an operation benefit evaluation method of an optical charging and storage system based on an improved matter element extension model. The method provided by the invention is applied to comprehensively evaluate the light charging, storage and transportation benefits in Zhejiang province, an index system for evaluating the light charging, storage and transportation benefits is established by collecting relevant data, and the comprehensive evaluation on the economic benefits of the light charging, storage and transportation system is carried out based on an improved matter element extension model.
1. Construction of comprehensive evaluation index system for operation benefit of optical charging and storage system
The method is used for objectively, comprehensively and scientifically reflecting the operation benefits of the optical charging and storing system, providing a reliable decision basis for a decision maker, selecting relevant indexes from the four aspects of profitability, repayment ability, operation ability, income level and the like, and initially constructing an economic activity evaluation index system. Meanwhile, a Delphi method is adopted to invite related industry experts, the opinions of the industry experts on the primary selection indexes are requested anonymously, the opinions are summarized and fed back, and finally, an optical charge storage system operation benefit comprehensive evaluation index system shown in the table 1 is determined.
TABLE 1
(1) Profitability
The profitability guarantees the long-term healthy development of enterprises, and 5 corresponding three-level indexes are further constructed, namely total investment earning rate, financial net present value, investment recovery period, capital fund net earning rate and internal earning rate.
(2) Ability to pay off debt
Whether the enterprise has the cash payment capability and the debt payment capability is the key for the healthy survival and development of the enterprise, and 3 corresponding three-level indexes, namely a borrowing and repayment period, an asset liability rate and an interest reserve rate, should be further constructed.
(3) Operational capacity
The operation capacity represents the consumption level and the stability level of photovoltaic power generation, 4 corresponding three-level indexes are further constructed, namely the reduction of the photovoltaic light rejection rate, the photovoltaic grid connection and consumption, the power supply reliability of a light storage system and the reduction of the power deviation punishment cost.
(4) Profit level
The income level is the fundamental power of economic activities carried out by power grid enterprises, and 6 corresponding three-level indexes are further constructed, namely low storage and high discharge income, government subsidy income, system photovoltaic electric quantity income, retired power battery recycling benefit, capacity and electricity charge income reduction and holiday photovoltaic surplus internet access income.
Data acquisition:
each index data of a certain optical charging and storage system operation benefit evaluation index system is shown in table 2:
TABLE 2
Index (I)
|
Index data
|
Unit of
|
Total throwRate of return
|
5.08
|
%
|
Net present financial value
|
13.25
|
Wan Yuan
|
Period of investment recovery
|
6.56
|
Wan Yuan
|
Net profit margin of capital fund
|
10.92
|
%
|
Internal rate of return
|
6.90
|
%
|
Loan repayment period
|
14
|
Year of year
|
Rate of assets and liabilities
|
79.86
|
%
|
Rate of interest reserve
|
1.50
|
%
|
Reduction of photovoltaic rejection
|
1.90
|
%
|
Photovoltaic grid connection and absorption
|
719
|
Thousands of kilowatts
|
Power supply reliability of optical storage system
|
9
|
Wan Yuan
|
Reducing power offset penalty cost
|
0.5
|
Element/kw
|
Low reserve high gain
|
13.4
|
Wan Yuan
|
Government subsidy revenue
|
50
|
Universal seat
|
System photovoltaic power yield
|
18.1
|
Wan Yuan
|
Recycling benefit of retired power battery
|
48
|
Ten thousand yuan/festival
|
Reducing capacity charges for electricity revenue
|
75.6
|
Wan Yuan
|
Photovoltaic surplus internet access income in holidays
|
5.3
|
Wan Yuan |
2. Operation benefit evaluation index empowerment
(1) Standardization of evaluation index
Because different evaluation indexes have differences in measurement units and economic meanings and have different evaluation effects on the total target, the index values are subjected to standardized treatment and then comprehensively evaluated, so that the adverse effect of the index differences is weakened, and the objectivity of the evaluation process and the results is enhanced. The overall index was treated as follows:
STEP 1: and (6) standardizing data. Assuming that n evaluation indexes and m evaluation objects are provided, an index matrix X ═ X is first constructedij)m×nAnd then, carrying out non-dimensionalization processing on the index matrix. The treatment method is as follows:
(2) determining evaluation index combination weights
And determining the operation benefit of the light charging and storing system by integrating subjective and objective factors through an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and an entropy weight method.
The method adopts an analytic hierarchy process to subjectively weight the designed three-layer index system, and comprises the following specific processes:
step 1: comparing two by two to establish a judgment matrix
Consulting expert opinions, quantifying judgment by adopting a nine-level scale method, constructing a judgment matrix, and constructing the judgment matrix U (U) by adopting the nine-level scale method according to the importance of the indexes of the same level relative to the indexes of the upper layerij)n×n。
Step 2: hierarchical single ordering and consistency checking
Judging the matrix U ═ U by solvingij)n×nAnd (4) obtaining a feature vector W by the feature root problem, and normalizing to obtain a ranking weight of the hierarchical element relative to the corresponding upper hierarchical element.
Calculating a consistency index
Performing consistency check of the judgment matrix when the judgment matrix is satisfied
The decision matrix is considered to have satisfactory consistency.
Step 3: total ordering of layers
Sequentially calculating from top to bottom layer by layer along the hierarchical structure, and calculating the synthetic weight W of the bottommost layer relative to the target layer (the highest layer)1=[ν1,ν2,…,νm]T
Secondly, an entropy weight method is adopted, known data are utilized to objectively weight the index system, and the method comprises the following specific steps:
STEP 1: and acquiring the information entropy. Information entropy EjThe calculation formula is as follows:
STEP 2: and calculating the entropy values of the profit storage capacity index, the repayment capacity index and the operation capacity index and the objective weight of the evaluation factors of each target layer. The information entropy normalization processing is carried out to obtain index weight, and the calculation formula is as follows:
combining weighting, and combining a subjective weighting method and an objective weighting method according to different preference coefficients to determine the index weight. The calculation formula is as follows:
ri=αWi+βVi (5)
in the formula, WiSubjective weights determined for the analytic hierarchy process; viThe index weight determined for the entropy weight method (here, α ═ 0.5, β ═ 0.5) yields W ═ ω ═ ω1,ω2,…,ωn]TNamely, the evaluation index combined weight vector is obtained.
Through an analytic hierarchy process and an entropy weight process, the main weight and the objective weight of the economic activity comprehensive evaluation index are respectively determined, the combined weight of the operation benefit comprehensive evaluation index of the optical storage system can be obtained, and the result of the combined weight is shown in table 3.
TABLE 3 evaluation index combination weights
3. Improved matter element extension model
Based on the classical matter element model, when the association degree of the matter elements is calculated through the association function, the higher the association degree of the indexes is, the more obvious the membership relationship is when the matter elements are closer to the highest or lowest grade, so that the operation benefit of the light charging and storage system is comprehensively evaluated, and the change rule among the matter elements is more effectively analyzed.
The improved matter element combination evaluation steps are as follows:
step 1: determining classical domains
In the formula: u shapejJ divided evaluation levels; c1,C2,…,CnTo evaluate the index system; xjiTo evaluate the grade UjEvaluation index CnA defined magnitude range, Xjn=(ajn,bjn)。
Step 2: determining section domains
In the formula: u shapepThe whole evaluation grade is obtained; interval Xpn=(apn,bpn) Is UpWith respect to CnThe specified magnitude range, the section domain.
Step 3: determining a degree of association
The correlation function can embody the operation benefit level of the index, embody the correlation degree between the evaluated unit and the evaluation grade thereof, and describe the benefit degree of each index through the grade level.
When x isi∈X1And ask for K1(xn) The method comprises the following steps:
when x isi∈XmAnd ask for Km(xn) The method comprises the following steps:
in other cases:
step 4: determining a comprehensive degree of association
Comprehensive relevance K of object to be evaluated to each evaluation gradej(pij) The calculation formula is as follows:
Kj(pij)=∑σiKj(xi) (12)
in the formula, σiIs the weight of the ith evaluation index.
The profitability index, the repayment ability index, the operation ability and the income level index of the operation benefit of the optical charging and storage system are divided into five grades of 'poor', 'normal', 'good' and 'good', an improved matter element extension model is established, comprehensive evaluation is carried out on the comprehensive evaluation index and evaluation grade data of economic activities, and finally the maximum comprehensive relevance degree and evaluation grade result of the comprehensive evaluation of the optical charging and storage system are calculated and shown in table 4.
TABLE 4 maximum comprehensive degree of association and evaluation grade of evaluation indexes of each target layer
Operational benefits
|
Maximum integrated degree of association
|
Comprehensive evaluation grade
|
Profitability
|
0.1989
|
In general
|
Ability to pay off debt
|
0.7898
|
Is preferably used
|
Operational capacity
|
0.0724
|
Good taste
|
Profit level
|
0.1197
|
Good taste |
From the above, the comprehensive benefits of a certain optical charging and storage system are rated according to the maximum comprehensive relevance, so that the profit capacity of the optical charging and storage system can be evaluated as general, the repayment capacity can be evaluated as good, and the operation capacity and the income level can be evaluated as good.
In conclusion, the improved object element extension model provided by the invention can realize scientific and effective evaluation on the comprehensive benefits of the optical charge storage system. Firstly, respectively calculating subjective and objective weights of 18 economic activity evaluation indexes by an analytic hierarchy process and an entropy weight process, and performing weight combination; and secondly, comprehensively evaluating the benefits of the optical storage system by adopting an improved matter element extension model, calculating the corresponding maximum comprehensive relevance based on the comprehensive evaluation, and dividing five grades of 'poor', 'common', 'good' and 'good' according to the comprehensive benefit level of the optical storage system so as to further reflect the trend of the economic activity rating. According to example verification, the result obtained by the comprehensive evaluation of the model is consistent with the actual situation.
The present invention is not limited to the above embodiments, and any changes or substitutions that can be easily made by those skilled in the art within the technical scope of the present invention are also within the scope of the present invention. Therefore, the protection scope of the present invention shall be subject to the protection scope of the claims.