CN110458317A - A kind of method and system of powerline ice-covering disaster prediction of the development trend - Google Patents
A kind of method and system of powerline ice-covering disaster prediction of the development trend Download PDFInfo
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- 230000005540 biological transmission Effects 0.000 claims abstract description 49
- 238000012544 monitoring process Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 45
- 230000005611 electricity Effects 0.000 claims abstract description 44
- 238000003062 neural network model Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 13
- 238000013528 artificial neural network Methods 0.000 claims description 9
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- 230000001419 dependent effect Effects 0.000 description 2
- 238000005516 engineering process Methods 0.000 description 2
- 230000008014 freezing Effects 0.000 description 2
- 238000007710 freezing Methods 0.000 description 2
- 238000007689 inspection Methods 0.000 description 2
- 238000012423 maintenance Methods 0.000 description 2
- 238000012545 processing Methods 0.000 description 2
- 238000012360 testing method Methods 0.000 description 2
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- G—PHYSICS
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- G06N—COMPUTING ARRANGEMENTS BASED ON SPECIFIC COMPUTATIONAL MODELS
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of method and system of powerline ice-covering disaster prediction of the development trend, this method includes obtaining the current icing monitoring data being normalized;Judge whether current icing monitoring data exception occur;If current icing monitoring data do not occur exception, judge whether transmission line of electricity currently occurs icing by equivalent ice covering thickness;If icing currently occurs for transmission line of electricity, with the icing variation tendency for the Neural Network model predictive transmission line of electricity future twenty four hours for combining NTS model, and the variation tendency of the short-term equivalent ice covering thickness of renormalization is exported.A kind of method and system of powerline ice-covering disaster prediction of the development trend provided by the invention, it can be based on current icing situation, model and all kinds of meteorological elements, the trend of transmission line of electricity future icing disaster development is assessed, icing disaster is coped in advance for power grid department, and development is prevented and reduced natural disasters, and work offer is effective to be supported.
Description
Technical field
The present embodiments relate to powerline ice-covering disaster prediction of the development trend technical field more particularly to a kind of transmissions of electricity
The method and system of transmission line icing disaster prediction of the development trend.
Background technique
Recently as the continuous development in city and industry, electricity needs is sharply increased, and waterpower, firepower and atomic energy etc.
Extensive generating equipment is all far from city.Especially Chinese " transferring electricity from the west to the east ", " sending in nortel south " pattern under, high voltage, great Rong
Measuring power transmission line construction becomes the inexorable trend of power transmission network development at oneself.With the continuous construction of power infrastructures, power transmission line
Road scale constantly expands, and transmission line of electricity voltage class is also higher and higher, and the high pressure even remote distance power of super-pressure convey also just
Gradually to build, China's power industry has entered the bulk power grid epoch that feature is automated as with large-sized unit, high voltage, height, at
For the basic industry and mainstay industry of relationship national economy and social sustainable development.
The electric power dependence that economic society is increasingly enhanced has promoted the status of power supply safety all than ever
More important, wherein power grid is the important link of conveying and distribution electric energy.However, the reality of current electric grid is: weight low temperature,
Sleet, freezing disaster weather often cause large area blackout to Guangdong Power Grid Northern Guangdong Province, and grid structure is destroyed again;
Therefore, reinforce the robustness of power grid, safety, rely on modern information technologies construction multidimensional monitoring and Warning Management System gesture must
Row.Especially carry out the prediction of power grid icing, the reply in advance of power grid icing can be achieved in, so that the broken string of falling tower be greatly reduced
The ability that power grid resists ice disaster is substantially improved in the generation of accident and trip accident, greatly improve power transmission and distribution and power supply can
By property, meanwhile, and power failure can be greatly decreased to loss caused by the national economic development, tribute is made for maintenance social harmony and stabilization
It offers.
Although the ultra-high-tension power transmission line operation maintenance personnel to work at the scene for a long time has accumulated many early warning experiences to freezing disaster,
Also it provides the foundation data for the prediction of the ultra-high-tension power transmission line icing process based on expert system, but its subjective factor is too strong,
And under actual conditions, wire icing operating condition is sufficiently complex, therefore, only by personnel this single prediction mode of experience into
Row prediction is clearly inadequate.
Summary of the invention
The present invention provides a kind of method and system of powerline ice-covering disaster prediction of the development trend, to solve the prior art
Deficiency.
To achieve the above object, the present invention provides technical solution below:
In a first aspect, the embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of method of powerline ice-covering disaster prediction of the development trend, it is described
Method includes:
Obtain the current icing monitoring data being normalized;
Judge whether current icing monitoring data exception occur;
If current icing monitoring data do not occur exception, judge whether transmission line of electricity is currently sent out by equivalent ice covering thickness
Raw icing;
If icing currently occurs for transmission line of electricity, not with the Neural Network model predictive transmission line of electricity in conjunction with NTS model
Carry out the icing variation tendency of twenty four hours, and exports the variation tendency of the short-term equivalent ice covering thickness of renormalization.
Further, in the method for the powerline ice-covering disaster prediction of the development trend, the acquisition has carried out normalizing
Change processing current icing terminal monitoring data the step of include:
Input current icing monitoring data and current microclimate monitoring data;
Data are normalized together.
Further, in the method for the powerline ice-covering disaster prediction of the development trend, described in conjunction with NTS mould
After the step of icing variation tendency of the Neural Network model predictive transmission line of electricity future twenty four hours of type, further includes:
Export the predicted maximum of equivalent ice covering thickness in the following twenty four hours of renormalization.
Further, the method for the powerline ice-covering disaster prediction of the development trend, further includes:
It issues and carries out anti-ice, ice-melt working signal.
Further, in the method for the powerline ice-covering disaster prediction of the development trend, in the current icing of judgement
Whether monitoring data occur after abnormal step, further includes:
If there is exception in current icing monitoring data, with trained MLP neural network model, in conjunction with microclimate
Monitoring data, judge whether transmission line of electricity currently occurs icing.
Further, the method for the powerline ice-covering disaster prediction of the development trend, further includes:
Issue ice-coating pre-warning signal.
Further, in the method for the powerline ice-covering disaster prediction of the development trend, pass through equivalent icing described
Thickness judged after the step of whether transmission line of electricity currently occurs icing, further includes:
If icing does not occur currently for transmission line of electricity, covered with MLP neural network prediction future twenty four hours is interior
The probability of ice, and export.
Second aspect, the embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of system of powerline ice-covering disaster prediction of the development trend, described
System includes:
Data acquisition module, for obtaining the current icing monitoring data being normalized;
Abnormal judgment module, for judging whether current icing monitoring data exception occur;
Icing judgment module is judged if not occurring exception for current icing monitoring data by equivalent ice covering thickness
Whether transmission line of electricity currently occurs icing;
Trend prediction module, if icing currently occurs for transmission line of electricity, with the neural network mould for combining NTS model
Type predicts the icing variation tendency of transmission line of electricity future twenty four hours, and export the short-term equivalent ice covering thickness of renormalization
Variation tendency.
A kind of method and system of powerline ice-covering disaster prediction of the development trend provided in an embodiment of the present invention, Neng Gouji
In current icing situation, model and all kinds of meteorological elements, the trend of transmission line of electricity future icing disaster development is assessed, is
Power grid department copes with icing disaster in advance, and development is prevented and reduced natural disasters, and work offer is effective to be supported.
Detailed description of the invention
In order to more clearly explain the embodiment of the invention or the technical proposal in the existing technology, to embodiment or will show below
There is attached drawing needed in technical description to be briefly described, it should be apparent that, the accompanying drawings in the following description is only this
Some embodiments of invention without any creative labor, may be used also for those of ordinary skill in the art
To obtain other attached drawings according to these attached drawings.
Fig. 1 is a kind of process of the method for powerline ice-covering disaster prediction of the development trend that the embodiment of the present invention one provides
Schematic diagram;
Fig. 2 is a kind of process of the method for powerline ice-covering disaster prediction of the development trend that the embodiment of the present invention one provides
Schematic diagram.
Specific embodiment
The present invention is described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples.It is understood that this place is retouched
The specific embodiment stated is used only for explaining the present invention rather than limiting the invention.It also should be noted that in order to just
Only the parts related to the present invention are shown in description, attached drawing rather than entire infrastructure.
Embodiment one
In the present embodiment, predict that the process of powerline ice-covering is as follows:
Current icing monitoring data are inputted, in conjunction with current microclimate monitoring data, judge current equivalent ice covering thickness data
Whether because of tension sensor failure, Qiang Jiangwen rainfall, wind speed drastic change there is exception, and to current icing monitor sample data into
Row normalized.
It, can be directly by thick by the resulting equivalent icing of pulling force monitor value conversion if current icing data no exceptions
Degree judgement it is current whether icing.If exception has occurred in current icing data, the following icing development trend is predicted to be normal, it can be straight
It connects and judges whether current line covers with the trained MLP neural network model of preprocessing module combination icing Historical Monitoring data
Ice.Power supply network issues the reference of ice-coating pre-warning signal.
If icing does not occur for current line, in conjunction with the following weather forecast data local for 24 hours (herein according to Practical Meteorological Requirements
Office's data selects the predicted value of temperature, humidity and wind speed) utilize the MLP neural network prediction interior probability that icing occurs for 24 hours.If
Icing has occurred for current line, then combines the following weather forecast data local for 24 hours, predict that the variation of equivalent ice covering thickness numerical value becomes
Gesture, and the predicted value for the following maximum icing equivalent thickness interior for 24 hours of number for exporting anti-normalization processing.Power supply network is carried out anti-ice, is melted
Ice operating reference.
Specifically, attached drawing 1 is please referred to, a kind of powerline ice-covering disaster development trend provided for the embodiment of the present invention one
The flow diagram of the method for prediction, this method specifically comprise the following steps:
The current icing monitoring data that S101, acquisition have been normalized.
Specifically, the step S101 further comprises:
Input current icing monitoring data and current microclimate monitoring data;
Data are normalized together.
S102, judge whether current icing monitoring data exception occur;If current icing monitoring data do not occur exception,
Step S103 is executed, if exception occur in current icing monitoring data, thens follow the steps S104.
Preferably, when current icing monitoring data occur abnormal, the powerline ice-covering disaster prediction of the development trend
Method, further includes:
It issues and carries out anti-ice, ice-melt working signal.
S103, judge whether transmission line of electricity currently occurs icing by equivalent ice covering thickness;If transmission line of electricity currently occurs
Icing thens follow the steps S105, if icing does not occur currently for transmission line of electricity, thens follow the steps S107.
S104, judge that transmission line of electricity is worked as in conjunction with microclimate monitoring data with trained MLP neural network model
It is preceding whether icing to occur;If icing currently occurs for transmission line of electricity, S105 is thened follow the steps, if transmission line of electricity does not cover currently
Ice thens follow the steps S107.
Preferably, if icing, the side of the powerline ice-covering disaster prediction of the development trend currently occur for transmission line of electricity
Method, further includes:
Issue ice-coating pre-warning signal.
S105, become with the icing for the Neural Network model predictive transmission line of electricity future twenty four hours for combining NTS model
Change trend, and export the variation tendency of the short-term equivalent ice covering thickness of renormalization.
S106, the predicted maximum for exporting equivalent ice covering thickness in the following twenty four hours of renormalization.
S107, with the probability that icing occurs in MLP neural network prediction future twenty four hours, and export.
S108, end.
It should be noted that Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP), i.e. multilayer perceptron, be a feed forward type,
Artificial neural network structure with supervision.It may include multiple hidden layers by multilayer perceptron, realize to nonlinear data
Classification model construction.MLP splits data into training set, test set, inspection set.Wherein, training set is used to be fitted the parameter of network, test
Collection prevents from overtraining, and inspection set is used to assess the effect of network, and is applied to total sample set.When dependent variable is the number of classifying type
Record is divided into most suitable type then according to the data inputted by value, MLP neural network.Often it is used to be learnt by MLP
Back-propagation algorithm is standard supervision learning algorithm in the field of pattern-recognition, and is calculating neurology and parallel distributed
In formula process field, persistently become studied project.MLP has proved to be a kind of general function approximation method, can be by
For being fitted complicated function, or solution classification problem.
Neural Time Series (NTS), the i.e. neural network model of binding time sequence.The model is a kind of dynamic
The neural network model of prediction preferably can be fitted and predict that independent variable and dependent variable all increase and continually changing ginseng at any time
Number is usually used in the filtering of nonlinear data and to the following prediction that numerical value occurs.NTS is by artificial neural network to dynamic change
Data be fitted, make prediction data dynamic change, data variation trend are analogous to a complete time sequence at any time
Column.
A kind of method of powerline ice-covering disaster prediction of the development trend provided in an embodiment of the present invention, can be based on current
Icing situation, model and all kinds of meteorological elements assess the trend of transmission line of electricity future icing disaster development, are power grid portion
Door copes with icing disaster in advance, carries out work of preventing and reducing natural disasters and provides effective support.
Embodiment two
Second embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of system of powerline ice-covering disaster prediction of the development trend, the system packet
It includes:
Data acquisition module, for obtaining the current icing monitoring data being normalized;
Abnormal judgment module, for judging whether current icing monitoring data exception occur;
Icing judgment module is judged if not occurring exception for current icing monitoring data by equivalent ice covering thickness
Whether transmission line of electricity currently occurs icing;
First trend prediction module, if icing currently occurs for transmission line of electricity, with the nerve net for combining NTS model
The icing variation tendency of network model prediction transmission line of electricity future twenty four hours, and the short-term equivalent icing for exporting renormalization is thick
The variation tendency of degree.
Preferably, the data acquisition module is specifically used for:
Input current icing monitoring data and current microclimate monitoring data;
Data are normalized together.
Preferably, the first trend prediction module is also used to:
Export the predicted maximum of equivalent ice covering thickness in the following twenty four hours of renormalization.
Preferably, further includes:
First signal transmitting module carries out anti-ice, ice-melt working signal for issuing.
Preferably, further includes:
Second icing judgment module, if there is exception for current icing monitoring data, with trained MLP mind
Judge whether transmission line of electricity currently occurs icing in conjunction with microclimate monitoring data through network model.
Preferably, further includes:
Second signal sending module, for issuing ice-coating pre-warning signal.
Preferably, further includes:
Second trend prediction module, if icing does not occur currently for transmission line of electricity, not with MLP neural network prediction
Carry out in twenty four hours to occur the probability of icing, and exports.
Method provided by any embodiment of the invention can be performed in above system, has the corresponding functional module of execution method
And beneficial effect.
A kind of system of powerline ice-covering disaster prediction of the development trend provided in an embodiment of the present invention, can be based on current
Icing situation, model and all kinds of meteorological elements assess the trend of transmission line of electricity future icing disaster development, are power grid portion
Door copes with icing disaster in advance, carries out work of preventing and reducing natural disasters and provides effective support.
So far, the above embodiments are merely illustrative of the technical solutions of the present invention, rather than its limitations;Although referring to aforementioned reality
Applying example, invention is explained in detail, those skilled in the art should understand that: it still can be to aforementioned each
Technical solution documented by embodiment is modified or equivalent replacement of some of the technical features;And these are modified
Or replacement, the spirit and scope for technical solution of various embodiments of the present invention that it does not separate the essence of the corresponding technical solution.
Claims (8)
1. a kind of method of powerline ice-covering disaster prediction of the development trend, which is characterized in that the described method includes:
Obtain the current icing monitoring data being normalized;
Judge whether current icing monitoring data exception occur;
If current icing monitoring data do not occur exception, judge whether transmission line of electricity currently covers by equivalent ice covering thickness
Ice;
If icing currently occurs for transmission line of electricity, with the Neural Network model predictive transmission line of electricity future two for combining NTS model
14 hours icing variation tendencies, and export the variation tendency of the short-term equivalent ice covering thickness of renormalization.
2. the method for powerline ice-covering disaster prediction of the development trend according to claim 1, which is characterized in that described to obtain
The step of taking the current icing terminal monitoring data being normalized include:
Input current icing monitoring data and current microclimate monitoring data;
Data are normalized together.
3. the method for powerline ice-covering disaster prediction of the development trend according to claim 1, which is characterized in that described
With combine NTS model Neural Network model predictive transmission line of electricity future twenty four hours icing variation tendency the step of it
Afterwards, further includes:
Export the predicted maximum of equivalent ice covering thickness in the following twenty four hours of renormalization.
4. the method for powerline ice-covering disaster prediction of the development trend according to claim 3, which is characterized in that also wrap
It includes:
It issues and carries out anti-ice, ice-melt working signal.
5. the method for powerline ice-covering disaster prediction of the development trend according to claim 1, which is characterized in that described
After judging whether current icing monitoring data abnormal step occur, further includes:
If exception occur in current icing monitoring data, with trained MLP neural network model, monitored in conjunction with microclimate
Data, judge whether transmission line of electricity currently occurs icing.
6. the method for powerline ice-covering disaster prediction of the development trend according to claim 5, which is characterized in that also wrap
It includes:
Issue ice-coating pre-warning signal.
7. the method for powerline ice-covering disaster prediction of the development trend according to claim 1, which is characterized in that described
After judging the step of whether transmission line of electricity currently occurs icing by equivalent ice covering thickness, further includes:
If icing does not occur currently for transmission line of electricity, with generation icing in MLP neural network prediction future twenty four hours
Probability, and export.
8. a kind of system of powerline ice-covering disaster prediction of the development trend, which is characterized in that the system comprises:
Data acquisition module, for obtaining the current icing monitoring data being normalized;
Abnormal judgment module, for judging whether current icing monitoring data exception occur;
Icing judgment module passes through the judgement transmission of electricity of equivalent ice covering thickness if not occurring exception for current icing monitoring data
Whether route currently occurs icing;
Trend prediction module, it is pre- with the neural network model in conjunction with NTS model if icing currently occurs for transmission line of electricity
The icing variation tendency of transmission line of electricity future twenty four hours is surveyed, and exports the variation of the short-term equivalent ice covering thickness of renormalization
Trend.
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CN110930283A (en) * | 2019-12-10 | 2020-03-27 | 国网湖南省电力有限公司 | Long-term multi-scale analysis method and system for power grid icing disasters |
CN111210086A (en) * | 2020-01-15 | 2020-05-29 | 杭州华网信息技术有限公司 | National power grid icing disaster prediction method |
CN111210086B (en) * | 2020-01-15 | 2023-09-22 | 国网安徽省电力有限公司宁国市供电公司 | National power grid icing disaster prediction method |
CN113553772A (en) * | 2021-08-09 | 2021-10-26 | 贵州电网有限责任公司 | Icing tension prediction method based on deep hybrid modeling |
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Application publication date: 20191115 |