CN110264018A - A kind of During Growing Period of Winter Wheat prediction technique based on effective accumulated temperature over the years - Google Patents
A kind of During Growing Period of Winter Wheat prediction technique based on effective accumulated temperature over the years Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention proposes a kind of During Growing Period of Winter Wheat prediction techniques based on effective accumulated temperature over the years, comprising: step S1 obtains history breeding time data and history day samming data；Step S2 establishes each phasic development velocity simulation model according to the history breeding time data and history day samming data；Step S3 obtains forecast annual data value: current year sowing stage of wheat and daily day samming.The effective accumulated temperature day by day that dormant effective accumulated temperature, date of turning green start before sowing-winter is substituted into corresponding simulation model respectively, it calculates developmental rate day by day and adds up to it, the number of days that accumulated value reaches 1 is number of days that winter wheat completes the stage of development, that is, predicts the exact date of current year wheat each breeding time.The present invention only needs day samming data just can Accurate Prediction breeding time dynamic；Both considered influence of the effective accumulated temperature to developmental rate after turning green before the winter, it is contemplated that after turning green effective accumulated temperature cumulative effect effect.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to agricultural production and technical field of data prediction, in particular to a kind of winter based on effective accumulated temperature over the years
Wheat growth stage prediction technique.
Background technique
In agricultural production, Accurate Prediction During Growing Period of Winter Wheat and the corresponding farming management of progress make produce to raising
Amount and quality are significant.But current During Growing Period of Winter Wheat prediction there is problems:
(1) development stage estimation needs meteorological factor parameter more, some parameters obtain difficulty it is larger, make its apply in by
Limitation.
(2) prediction of During Growing Period of Winter Wheat is carried out currently without professional accumulated temperature analysis method or model.
Summary of the invention
The purpose of the present invention aims to solve at least one of described technological deficiency.
For this purpose, it is an object of the invention to propose a kind of During Growing Period of Winter Wheat prediction technique based on effective accumulated temperature over the years.
To achieve the goals above, the embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of During Growing Period of Winter Wheat based on effective accumulated temperature over the years
Prediction technique includes the following steps:
Step S1 obtains history breeding time data and history day samming data；
Step S2 establishes each phasic development velocity simulation according to the history breeding time data and history day samming data
Model；
Step S3 obtains forecast annual data value: current year sowing stage of wheat and daily day samming.It will stop life before sowing-winter
The effective accumulated temperature day by day that long effective accumulated temperature, date of turning green start substitutes into corresponding simulation model respectively, calculates development speed day by day
Rate simultaneously adds up to it, and the number of days that accumulated value reaches 1 is number of days that winter wheat completes the stage of development, i.e. prediction current year is small
The exact date of wheat each breeding time.
Further, in the step S1, the history breeding time data include: the turning green of winter wheat-jointing, return
Green-to ear, the turn green mature each phasic development rate of-milking maturity, turn green-and day samming.
Further, in the step S2,
Firstly, according to the history day samming data calculate winter wheat stage of development each year by year winter before effective accumulated temperature and
Day effective accumulated temperature；
Then, according to the history breeding time data, effective accumulated temperature and day effective accumulated temperature before the winter, each phasic development speed is established
Rate simulation model.
Further, described according to the history breeding time data, effective accumulated temperature and day effective accumulated temperature before the winter, establish each stage
Developmental rate simulation model, comprising:
To turning green ,-jointing is turned green-ears two growing stages, is accumulated with the day effective accumulated temperature of each stage of development year by year
Rate, effective accumulated temperature is independent variable before the winter, to-milking maturity ,-two growing stages of maturation of turning green of turning green, respectively to develop rank year by year
Section day effective accumulated temperature cumulative speed is independent variable, carries out linear regression respectively, establishes each phasic development velocity simulation model.
Further, effective accumulated temperature before the winter is calculated, is included the following steps:
It stops growing before from sowing time to winter the phase, the phase that stopped growing before the winter, 5 daily mean temperatures dropped to 0 DEG C for the first time with autumn
Last day as the dormant date；
Calculate the day aggregate-value of effective temperature:
Wherein, Td is day samming, and T0 is 0 DEG C, and Th is 30 DEG C, and DDTi is the stage day effective accumulated temperature, and DDT is sowing-winter
Before stop growing effective accumulated temperature before the i.e. winter, D is the number of days of the stage of development.
Further, the growth rate 1/D turned green to each stage is calculated, wherein D is the growth number of days turned green to each stage,
Taking its inverse is growth rate 1/D；
Calculate the day aggregate-value that the effective accumulated temperature cumulative speed turned green to each stage includes: the effective temperature that will be calculated
Divided by the number of days D turned green to each stage, as effective accumulated temperature cumulative speed.
Further, in the step S3, the prediction result at the exact date of current year wheat each breeding time is predicted, with one
The form of time interval is presented, or is made full growing area GIS distribution map with each grid data and presented.
During Growing Period of Winter Wheat prediction technique according to an embodiment of the present invention based on effective accumulated temperature over the years, can be adapted for Huang
Huai-Hai winter wheat growing area, the method that can also serve as wheat aging time prediction.The present invention in the case where obtaining many years data basis,
The prediction of breeding time is realized by establishing developmental rate regression equation.
(1) only need day samming data just can Accurate Prediction breeding time dynamic.
(2) influence of the effective accumulated temperature to developmental rate after turning green before the winter had both been considered, it is contemplated that effective accumulated temperature after turning green
Cumulative effect effect.
The additional aspect of the present invention and advantage will be set forth in part in the description, and will partially become from the following description
Obviously, or practice through the invention is recognized.
Detailed description of the invention
Above-mentioned and/or additional aspect of the invention and advantage will become from the description of the embodiment in conjunction with the following figures
Obviously and it is readily appreciated that, in which:
Fig. 1 is the process according to the During Growing Period of Winter Wheat prediction technique based on effective accumulated temperature over the years of the embodiment of the present invention
Figure；
Fig. 2 is the signal according to the During Growing Period of Winter Wheat prediction technique based on effective accumulated temperature over the years of the embodiment of the present invention
Figure.
Specific embodiment
The embodiment of the present invention is described below in detail, examples of the embodiments are shown in the accompanying drawings, wherein from beginning to end
Same or similar label indicates same or similar element or element with the same or similar functions.Below with reference to attached
The embodiment of figure description is exemplary, it is intended to is used to explain the present invention, and is not considered as limiting the invention.
As depicted in figs. 1 and 2, the During Growing Period of Winter Wheat prediction technique based on effective accumulated temperature over the years of the embodiment of the present invention,
Include the following steps:
Step S1 obtains history breeding time data and history day samming data.
In an embodiment of the present invention, history breeding time data, which include: turning green for winter wheat ,-jointing is turned green-ears,
The mature each phasic development rate of-milking maturity, turn green-of turning green and day samming.For example, nearest seedling breeding time in 10 year winter (is sowed, pulls out
Section, heading, milking maturity, maturation) and day samming data.
Step S2 establishes each phasic development velocity simulation model according to history breeding time data and history day samming data.
In this step, it counts effective accumulated temperature before nearest 10 years liriope minors, turn green to the growth rate and effectively in each stage
Accumulated temperature cumulative speed value establishes simulation equation using nearest 10 years historical datas, and day current year samming data are substituted into the prediction equation winter
Wheat growth stage.
It should be noted that 10 to be only be for exemplary purposes, specifically to count the data of how many duration, according to user's need
It is chosen.
Specifically, firstly, effectively long-pending before the winter for calculating the stage of development each year by year of winter wheat according to history day samming data
Mild day effective accumulated temperature.
(1) effective accumulated temperature before the calculating winter, includes the following steps:
Time: it stops growing before from sowing time to winter the phase.The phase was stopped growing before winter with autumn (December and after) first
The last day that secondary 5 daily mean temperature drops to 0 DEG C (it is average daily can to calculate 5 from November 27 as the dormant date
Temperature).
Winter wheat effective temperature is 0-30 DEG C, calculates the day aggregate-value of effective temperature:
Wherein, Td is day samming, and T0 is 0 DEG C, and Th is 30 DEG C, and 1/D is the developmental rate in each stage after turning green, and D is the hair
The number of days in stage is educated, DDTi is the stage day effective accumulated temperature, and DDT is effective accumulated temperature before the i.e. winter that stopped growing before sowing-winter.
(2) the growth rate 1/D turned green to each stage is calculated, wherein D is the growth number of days turned green to each stage, takes it
Inverse is growth rate 1/D.Each growth period rate is dependent variable when establishing equation.
Wherein, the determination of period of seedling establishment is the last day for being greater than 3 DEG C with the early spring (late January and after) 5 daily mean temperatures
As period of seedling establishment.
(3) calculating the effective accumulated temperature cumulative speed turned green to each stage includes: tiring out day for the effective temperature that will be calculated
Evaluation is divided by the number of days D turned green to each stage, as effective accumulated temperature cumulative speed.
Then, according to history breeding time data, effective accumulated temperature and day effective accumulated temperature before the winter, each phasic development rate mould is established
Analog model.To turning green ,-jointing is turned green-ears two growing stages, accumulates speed with the day effective accumulated temperature of each stage of development year by year
Rate, effective accumulated temperature is independent variable before the winter, to-milking maturity ,-two growing stages of maturation of turning green of turning green, with each stage of development year by year
Day effective accumulated temperature cumulative speed is independent variable, carries out linear regression respectively, establishes each phasic development velocity simulation model.
Specifically, being calculated using excel data-data analysis-recurrence.To turn green ,-jointing is turned green-is eared, is returned
Blueness-milking maturity, turn green-mature each phasic development rate is dependent variable, turn green-jointing is turned green-ear two growing stages,
Using each stage of development year by year day effective accumulated temperature cumulative speed, before the winter effective accumulated temperature as independent variable, turn green-milking maturity, turn green-at
Ripe two growing stages are carried out linear regression respectively, built using each stage of development day effective accumulated temperature cumulative speed year by year as independent variable
Found each phasic development velocity simulation model.
Step S3 obtains forecast annual data value: current year sowing stage of wheat and daily day samming.It will stop life before sowing-winter
The effective accumulated temperature day by day that long effective accumulated temperature, date of turning green start substitutes into corresponding simulation model respectively, calculates development speed day by day
Rate simultaneously adds up to it, and the number of days that accumulated value reaches 1 is number of days that winter wheat completes the stage of development, i.e. prediction current year is small
The exact date of wheat each breeding time.
In an embodiment of the present invention, the prediction result for predicting the exact date of current year wheat each breeding time, when with one
Between the form in section present, or full growing area GIS distribution map is made with each grid data and is presented.
During Growing Period of Winter Wheat prediction technique according to an embodiment of the present invention based on effective accumulated temperature over the years, can be adapted for Huang
Huai-Hai winter wheat growing area, the method that can also serve as wheat aging time prediction.The present invention in the case where obtaining many years data basis,
The prediction of breeding time is realized by establishing developmental rate regression equation.
(1) only need day samming data just can Accurate Prediction breeding time dynamic.
(2) influence of the effective accumulated temperature to developmental rate after turning green before the winter had both been considered, it is contemplated that effective accumulated temperature after turning green
Cumulative effect effect.
In the description of this specification, reference term " one embodiment ", " some embodiments ", " example ", " specifically show
The description of example " or " some examples " etc. means specific features, structure, material or spy described in conjunction with this embodiment or example
Point is included at least one embodiment or example of the invention.In the present specification, schematic expression of the above terms are not
Centainly refer to identical embodiment or example.Moreover, particular features, structures, materials, or characteristics described can be any
One or more embodiment or examples in can be combined in any suitable manner.
Although the embodiments of the present invention has been shown and described above, it is to be understood that above-described embodiment is example
Property, it is not considered as limiting the invention, those skilled in the art are not departing from the principle of the present invention and objective
In the case where can make changes, modifications, alterations, and variations to the above described embodiments within the scope of the invention.The scope of the present invention
By appended claims and its equivalent limit.
Claims (7)
1. a kind of During Growing Period of Winter Wheat prediction technique based on effective accumulated temperature over the years, which comprises the steps of:
Step S1 obtains history breeding time data and history day samming data；
Step S2 establishes each phasic development velocity simulation model according to the history breeding time data and history day samming data；
Step S3 obtains forecast annual data value: current year sowing stage of wheat and daily day samming, will be dormant before sowing-winter
The effective accumulated temperature day by day that effective accumulated temperature, date of turning green start substitutes into corresponding simulation model respectively, calculates day by day developmental rate simultaneously
It adds up to it, the number of days that accumulated value reaches 1 is number of days that winter wheat completes the stage of development, i.e. prediction current year wheat is each
The exact date of breeding time.
2. as described in claim 1 based on the During Growing Period of Winter Wheat prediction technique of effective accumulated temperature over the years, which is characterized in that in institute
It states in step S1, the history breeding time data, which include: turning green for winter wheat ,-jointing is turned green-ears, turn green-it milking maturity, returns
Green-mature each phasic development rate and day samming.
3. as described in claim 1 based on the During Growing Period of Winter Wheat prediction technique of effective accumulated temperature over the years, which is characterized in that in institute
It states in step S2,
Firstly, according to effective accumulated temperature before the winter of the stage of development each year by year of history day samming data calculating winter wheat and having day
Imitate accumulated temperature；
Then, according to the history breeding time data, effective accumulated temperature and day effective accumulated temperature before the winter, each phasic development rate mould is established
Analog model.
4. as claimed in claim 3 based on the During Growing Period of Winter Wheat prediction technique of effective accumulated temperature over the years, which is characterized in that described
According to the history breeding time data, effective accumulated temperature and day effective accumulated temperature before the winter, each phasic development velocity simulation model is established, is wrapped
It includes:
To turning green ,-jointing is turned green-ears two growing stages, with each stage of development year by year day effective accumulated temperature cumulative speed,
Effective accumulated temperature is independent variable before winter, to-milking maturity ,-two growing stages of maturation of turning green of turning green, is had with each stage of development day year by year
Effect accumulated temperature cumulative speed is independent variable, carries out linear regression respectively, establishes each phasic development velocity simulation model.
5. as claimed in claim 3 based on the During Growing Period of Winter Wheat prediction technique of effective accumulated temperature over the years, which is characterized in that calculate
Effective accumulated temperature before the winter, includes the following steps:
It stops growing before from sowing time to winter the phase, the phase that stopped growing before the winter, 5 daily mean temperatures dropped to 0 DEG C most for the first time with autumn
It is used as the dormant date one day after；
Calculate the day aggregate-value of effective temperature:
Wherein, Td is day samming, and T0 is 0 DEG C, and Th is 30 DEG C, and DDTi is the stage day effective accumulated temperature, and DDT is to stop before sowing-winter
Only growth is effective accumulated temperature before the winter, and D is the number of days of the stage of development.
6. as claimed in claim 4 based on the During Growing Period of Winter Wheat prediction technique of effective accumulated temperature over the years, which is characterized in that
Calculate the growth rate 1/D turned green to each stage, wherein D is the growth number of days turned green to each stage, takes its inverse to be
Growth rate 1/D；
Calculate the effective accumulated temperature cumulative speed turned green to each stage include: the effective temperature that will be calculated day aggregate-value divided by
It turns green to the number of days D in each stage, as effective accumulated temperature cumulative speed.
7. as described in claim 1 based on the During Growing Period of Winter Wheat prediction technique of effective accumulated temperature over the years, which is characterized in that in institute
It states in step S3, predicts the prediction result at the exact date of current year wheat each breeding time, presented in the form of a time interval,
Or full growing area GIS distribution map is made with each grid data and is presented.
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Cited By (9)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN110889547A (en) * | 2019-11-20 | 2020-03-17 | 中国农业大学 | Crop growth period prediction method and device |
| CN112001543A (en) * | 2020-08-24 | 2020-11-27 | 浙江省气候中心 | Crop growth period prediction method based on ground temperature and related equipment |
| CN112840977A (en) * | 2020-12-31 | 2021-05-28 | 航天信息股份有限公司 | Method and system for predicting wheat yield based on key growth period of wheat |
| CN113052368A (en) * | 2021-03-15 | 2021-06-29 | 中化现代农业有限公司 | Crop sowing time prediction method and system |
| CN113592193A (en) * | 2021-08-19 | 2021-11-02 | 中化现代农业有限公司 | Crop harvest time prediction method and device and storage medium |
| CN113641941A (en) * | 2021-07-12 | 2021-11-12 | 安徽省神农农业技术开发有限公司 | Method for accurately calculating basic seedlings in ultrahigh-yield cultivation of wheat |
| CN113761708A (en) * | 2021-07-21 | 2021-12-07 | 南京林业大学 | Flowering phase forecasting method based on rolling weather forecast |
| CN117391472A (en) * | 2023-10-26 | 2024-01-12 | 北京麦麦趣耕科技有限公司 | Device and method for predicting growth period of wheat and application of device and method |
| CN117744861A (en) * | 2023-12-08 | 2024-03-22 | 中化现代农业有限公司 | Method and device for predicting physical period, electronic equipment and storage medium |
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN110889547A (en) * | 2019-11-20 | 2020-03-17 | 中国农业大学 | Crop growth period prediction method and device |
| CN110889547B (en) * | 2019-11-20 | 2022-04-15 | 中国农业大学 | Crop growth period prediction method and device |
| CN112001543A (en) * | 2020-08-24 | 2020-11-27 | 浙江省气候中心 | Crop growth period prediction method based on ground temperature and related equipment |
| CN112840977A (en) * | 2020-12-31 | 2021-05-28 | 航天信息股份有限公司 | Method and system for predicting wheat yield based on key growth period of wheat |
| CN113052368A (en) * | 2021-03-15 | 2021-06-29 | 中化现代农业有限公司 | Crop sowing time prediction method and system |
| CN113052368B (en) * | 2021-03-15 | 2021-09-10 | 中化现代农业有限公司 | Crop sowing time prediction method and system |
| CN113641941A (en) * | 2021-07-12 | 2021-11-12 | 安徽省神农农业技术开发有限公司 | Method for accurately calculating basic seedlings in ultrahigh-yield cultivation of wheat |
| CN113641941B (en) * | 2021-07-12 | 2023-11-28 | 安徽省神农农业技术开发有限公司 | Accurate calculation method for basic seedlings in ultrahigh-yield wheat cultivation |
| CN113761708A (en) * | 2021-07-21 | 2021-12-07 | 南京林业大学 | Flowering phase forecasting method based on rolling weather forecast |
| CN113592193A (en) * | 2021-08-19 | 2021-11-02 | 中化现代农业有限公司 | Crop harvest time prediction method and device and storage medium |
| CN117391472A (en) * | 2023-10-26 | 2024-01-12 | 北京麦麦趣耕科技有限公司 | Device and method for predicting growth period of wheat and application of device and method |
| CN117391472B (en) * | 2023-10-26 | 2024-02-13 | 北京麦麦趣耕科技有限公司 | Device and method for predicting growth period of wheat and application of device and method |
| CN117744861A (en) * | 2023-12-08 | 2024-03-22 | 中化现代农业有限公司 | Method and device for predicting physical period, electronic equipment and storage medium |
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