CN110150078B - Method and system for determining tobacco transplanting date in Fujian tobacco district - Google Patents
Method and system for determining tobacco transplanting date in Fujian tobacco district Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a method for determining the tobacco transplanting date, which comprises the following steps: fitting a function of the daily average temperature of the previous year changing along with the date according to the daily average temperature data of the previous natural year; establishing a prediction function of annual average daily temperature of the agriculture along with date change according to the fitted function of the average daily temperature along with date change; and determining the tobacco transplanting date based on a specific rule according to a prediction function of annual average daily temperature of the agriculture along with date change. The tobacco is transplanted on a date determined by the method and the harvested tobacco product has improved quality.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of tobacco planting, in particular to a method and a system for determining a tobacco transplanting date.
Background
The growth and development of the tobacco and the quality difference of the tobacco leaves in different transplanting periods are obvious. The transplanting period is too early, the temperature and the soil temperature are insufficient, the green returning and root growth of tobacco seedlings can be seriously influenced, and even the tobacco seedlings are subjected to cold damage or freezing damage, so the growth and development of flue-cured tobacco and the accumulation of inclusions are influenced; too late transplanting, too high temperature and soil temperature can lead tobacco plants to grow unnecessarily and vigorously, shorten the growth period, and lead the content transformation to be insufficient, thereby seriously affecting the quality of tobacco leaves. Improper selection of transplanting time also causes insufficient or too strong illumination in the flue-cured tobacco growth process, thereby affecting the quality of tobacco leaves. The insufficient illumination causes slow cell division of the flue-cured tobacco leaf slices, poor mechanical tissue development and weak plant growth, which results in large and thin leaves and poor internal quality. The illumination is too strong, so that the cell walls of the fence tissues and the sponge tissues of the tobacco leaves are thickened, the mechanical tissues are over developed, the main veins are protruded to form 'thick-rib violent leaves', in addition, the nicotine content is also increased along with the increase of the mechanical tissues, and the quality of the tobacco leaves is seriously influenced.
Currently, the transplanting period of the Fujian tobacco area is determined mainly according to traditional experience, and the transplanting time per year is relatively fixed.
Disclosure of Invention
The inventor finds that the transplanting time is not properly selected, and the obtained tobacco has poor quality.
The invention provides an innovative method and system for determining the tobacco transplanting date. The tobacco is transplanted according to the tobacco transplanting date determined by the method of the invention, and the harvested tobacco leaves have improved quality.
In some aspects, there is provided a method of determining a tobacco transplant date, comprising:
fitting a function F (x) of the daily average temperature change with the date of the previous natural year according to the date change data of the daily average temperature of the previous natural year0)；
According to F (x)0) Establishing a prediction function of annual average daily temperature of the agriculture along with date change;
-determining, according to said prediction function, the tobacco transplant date based on the following rules:
when the lowest daily average temperature of the agricultural year is predicted to be less than 5 ℃, solving the date which is corresponding to the lowest daily average temperature and is next to the date of 5 ℃, and taking one or more days from the date to the 10 th day away from the date as the tobacco transplanting date;
when the temperature is predicted to be less than or equal to 5 ℃ and less than 10 ℃ on the lowest day of the agricultural year, taking one or more days between 1 month and 10 days of the agricultural year as the tobacco transplanting date;
when the average temperature of the lowest day of the agricultural year is predicted to be more than or equal to 10 ℃, taking one or more days between 10 days of 12 months and 20 days of 12 months of the agricultural year as the tobacco transplanting date.
In some embodiments, the function F (x) is fitted0) Comprises the following operations:
daily average temperature data from 1 month 25 days to 10 months 31 days of the previous natural year are obtained, and a quadratic function is fitted accordingly:
F(x0)＝ax0 2+bx0+c
wherein x is0Denotes the day after 1 month and 25 days of the previous natural year, F (x)0) Denotes the x th0Average daily temperature/deg.C.
In some embodiments 1 ≦ x0≤280。
In some embodiments, according to F (x)0) The step of establishing the prediction function of annual average daily temperature of the agriculture along with date change comprises the following operations:
the acquisition function F (x)0) The values of coefficients a, b and c in (1);
setting a daily average temperature-to-date variation prediction function of the agricultural year from 7 months, 26 days to 1 month, 24 days to L (x) based on the values of a, b and c1)：
L(x1)＝a(x1+182)2+b(x1+182)+c；
Wherein x is1Denotes that 1. ltoreq. x is present on the day of 26 days from 7 months1≤183，L(x1) Denotes the x th1Average daily temperature/° c;
setting a prediction function of the daily average temperature of the agricultural year from 1 month, 24 days to 7 months, 25 days as R (x)2)：
R(x2)＝L(184-x2)
Wherein x is2Means that 1. ltoreq. x in the days from 1 month and 24 days of the year of the agricultural crop2≤183，R(x2) Denotes the x th2Average daily temperature/deg.C.
In some embodiments, the tobacco transplant date is determined based on the following rules:
when the agricultural year L (183) < 5 ℃ is predicted, solving for R (x)2) X corresponding to the nearest 52Value x of2', from 24 days 1 month of the year of the agricultural year2From day to x2One or more days between' +10 days are the tobacco transplanting dates;
when the agricultural year is predicted to be more than or equal to L (183) and less than 10 ℃, taking one or more days between 1 month and 10 days of the agricultural year as the tobacco transplanting date;
when the agricultural year L (183) is predicted to be 10 ℃ or more, one or more days between 10 and 20 months in 12 months in the agricultural year are used as the tobacco transplanting date.
In some embodiments, the method of determining a tobacco transplant date in fujian tobacco district described above is used to determine a tobacco transplant date in fujian tobacco district, such as a tobacco transplant date in the immortalized tobacco district of longstone city, yuxi tobacco district of samming city, or the political and tobacco district of nanping city, of fujian province.
In some aspects, a method of transplanting tobacco is provided, comprising the steps of:
determining the tobacco transplanting date of the tobacco Fujian tobacco area according to the method for determining the tobacco transplanting date of the Fujian tobacco area;
transplanting tobacco according to a determined date.
In some aspects, a system for determining a tobacco transplant date in Fujian tobacco district is provided, comprising
A function fitting module for fitting a function F (x) of mean temperature of degree day of previous year varying with date according to the day mean temperature data of previous natural year0)；
A prediction function building module for annual average temperature of the agricultural field along with date change according to F (x)0) Establishing a prediction function of annual average daily temperature of the agriculture along with date change;
a tobacco transplanting date determining module, which determines the tobacco transplanting date based on the following rules according to the prediction function of annual average daily temperature variation with date of the agriculture:
when the lowest daily average temperature of the agricultural year is predicted to be less than 5 ℃, solving the date which is corresponding to the lowest daily average temperature and is next to the date of 5 ℃, and taking one or more days from the date to the 10 th day away from the date as the tobacco transplanting date;
when the temperature is predicted to be less than or equal to 5 ℃ and less than 10 ℃ on the lowest day of the agricultural year, taking one or more days between 1 month and 10 days of the agricultural year as the tobacco transplanting date;
when the average temperature of the lowest day of the agricultural year is predicted to be more than or equal to 10 ℃, taking one or more days between 10 days of 12 months and 20 days of 12 months of the agricultural year as the tobacco transplanting date.
In some aspects, a system for transplanting Fujian tobacco in a tobacco area is provided, comprising
A previous natural year temperature-day-average function fitting module for fitting a previous year temperature-day-average temperature-variation-with-date function F (x) according to the previous natural year temperature-day average data0)；
A prediction function building module for annual average temperature of the agricultural field along with date change according to F (x)0) Establishing a prediction function of annual average daily temperature of the agriculture along with date change;
a tobacco transplanting date determining module, which determines the tobacco transplanting date based on the following rules according to the prediction function of annual average daily temperature variation with date of the agriculture:
when the average temperature of the lowest day of the agricultural year is predicted to be less than 5 ℃, solving the date corresponding to the average temperature of the lowest day of the agricultural year closest to 5 ℃, and taking one or more days from the date to the 10 th day away from the date as the tobacco transplanting date;
when the average temperature of the lowest day of the agricultural year is predicted to be more than or equal to 5 ℃ and less than 10 ℃, taking one or more days between 1 month and 10 days of the agricultural year as the tobacco transplanting date;
when the lowest-day average temperature of the agricultural year is predicted to be more than or equal to 10 ℃, taking one or more days between 10 days of 12 months and 20 days of 12 months of the agricultural year as the tobacco transplanting date;
a tobacco transplanting module for transplanting the tobacco according to the date determined by the tobacco transplanting date determining module.
In some aspects, there is provided an apparatus for determining a date of tobacco transplantation in fujian tobacco fields, comprising:
a memory to store instructions;
and the processor is used for executing the instructions to enable the device for determining the tobacco transplanting date in the Fujian tobacco area to execute the operation of realizing the method for determining the tobacco transplanting date in the Fujian tobacco area.
In some aspects, a computer-readable storage medium is provided that stores computer instructions that, when executed by a processor, implement a method of determining a fujian tobacco zone tobacco transplant date.
In some embodiments, fitting of the quadratic function is performed using Microsoft Excel 2007 software, in particular, using the polynomial trend line (order 2) tool of the software.
In some embodiments, fitting of the quadratic function may also be performed using statistical software such as SPSS or DPS.
In some embodiments, the fitting of the quadratic function may be performed using a least squares method.
The terms, if used, of the present disclosure are defined as follows:
the term "natural year" refers to 1 month, 1 day to 12 months, 31 days of the year. For example, 2016 nature year refers to 1/2016 year to 31/2016/12/2016 year.
The term "agricultural year" refers to the year between the start of two extensive harvests of a crop. In the present application, 26 days in the current year to 25 days in the next year, 7 months, are used as an agricultural year. For example, an agricultural year of 2016 is 26 months in 2016 to 25 months in 2017.
The term "Fujian tobacco district" refers to a tobacco planting area located in Fujian province, including the Fujian province, Longyan city tobacco district, Sanming city tobacco district, Nanping city tobacco district, etc.
The previous natural year of the N agricultural year is referred to as the N-1 natural year. For example, the previous natural year of the 2016 agricultural year refers to the 2015 natural year.
The default 1 year for the model of this application is 365 days. If leap year (366 days), 2 months and 29 days are omitted.
The day 1 from a certain day of a month is the day of the day.
Advantageous effects
Transplanting the tobacco in the Fujian tobacco area according to the transplanting time determined by the method, wherein the harvested tobacco has one or more of the following advantages:
(1) has improved appearance quality;
(2) has improved sensory quality, especially in style.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of some embodiments of a method of determining a tobacco transplant date in Fujian tobacco district according to the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of some embodiments of a system for determining a tobacco transplant date in Fujian tobacco district according to the present invention;
fig. 3 is a schematic diagram of some embodiments of an apparatus for determining a tobacco transplant date in a Fujian tobacco district according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
Embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail below with reference to examples, but those skilled in the art will appreciate that the following examples are only illustrative of the present invention and should not be construed as limiting the scope of the present invention. The examples, in which specific conditions are not specified, were conducted under conventional conditions or conditions recommended by the manufacturer. The reagents or instruments used are not indicated by the manufacturer, and are all conventional products commercially available.
Fig. 1 is a schematic diagram of some embodiments of the method of determining a tobacco transplant date in a fujian tobacco district according to the present invention.
As shown in fig. 1: a method for determining tobacco transplanting date in Fujian tobacco district comprises the following steps:
step 101: fitting a previous year day average temperature change-with-date function F (x) according to the date change-with-date data of the day average temperature of the previous natural year0)；
Step 102: according to F (x)0) Establishing a prediction function of annual average daily temperature of the agriculture along with date change;
step 103: according to the prediction function of annual average temperature of the agriculture along with date change, determining the tobacco transplanting date based on the following rules:
when the lowest daily average temperature of the agricultural year is predicted to be less than 5 ℃, solving the date which is corresponding to the lowest daily average temperature and is next to the date of 5 ℃, and taking one or more days from the date to the 10 th day away from the date as the tobacco transplanting date;
when the temperature is predicted to be less than or equal to 5 ℃ and less than 10 ℃ on the lowest day of the agricultural year, taking one or more days between 1 month and 10 days of the agricultural year as the tobacco transplanting date;
when the average temperature of the lowest day of the agricultural year is predicted to be more than or equal to 10 ℃, taking one or more days between 10 days of 12 months and 20 days of 12 months of the agricultural year as the tobacco transplanting date.
In some embodiments, the step of fitting the previous year's mean daily temperature as a function of date comprises the following operations
Daily average temperature data from 1 month 25 days to 10 months 31 days of the previous natural year are obtained, and a quadratic function is fitted accordingly:
F(x0)＝ax0 2+bx0+c
wherein x is0Representing the days from 1 month 25 days of the previous natural year (e.g., x)01 corresponds to 1 month and 25 days, x0280 corresponds to 31 days 10 months), F (x)0) Denotes the x th0Average daily temperature/deg.C.
In some embodiments, the step of establishing the annual average daily temperature of the agriculture as a function of the variation of the date comprises the following operations:
setting the prediction function of the daily average temperature of the agricultural year from 7 months, 26 days to 1 month, 24 days along with the change of the date to be L (x)1)：
L(x1)＝a(x1+182)2+b(x1+182)+c；
Wherein x is1Indicates that the day is a few days from 7 months and 26 days, 1. ltoreqx1183 (e.g., x)11 corresponds to 26 days 7 months, x1183 h corresponds to 24 days 1 month), L (x)1) Denotes the x th1Average daily temperature/deg.C, function L (x)1) The values of the medium coefficients a, b and c are the same as the function F (x)0)；
Setting a prediction function of the average daily temperature of the agricultural year from 1 month and 24 days to 7 months and 25 days as R (x)2)：
R(x2)＝L(184-x2)
Wherein x is2Means that 1. ltoreq. x in the days from 1 month and 24 days of the year of the agricultural crop2183 (e.g., x)21 corresponds to 24 days in 1 month, x2183 h corresponds to 7 months and 25 days, R (x)2) Denotes the x th2Average daily temperature/deg.C.
In some embodiments, the tobacco transplant date is determined based on the following rules:
when the agricultural year L (183) < 5 ℃ is predicted, solving R (x)2) X corresponding to a value of (2) closest to 52Value x of2', from 24 days 1 month of the year of the agricultural year2From day to x2One or more days between' +10 days are the tobacco transplanting dates;
when the agricultural year is predicted to be more than or equal to L (183) and less than 10 ℃, taking one or more days between 1 month and 10 days of the agricultural year as the tobacco transplanting date;
when the agricultural year L (183) is predicted to be more than or equal to 10 ℃, one or more days between 10 days of 12 months and 20 days of 12 months of the agricultural year are taken as the tobacco transplanting date.
In some embodiments, the predictive tobacco move-to-date method is used to determine the tobacco transplant date for the immortalized tobacco zone of longstone city, the youxi tobacco zone of samming city, or the political and tobacco zone of south-average city, of fujian province.
In some embodiments, there is provided a method of transferring tobacco, comprising the steps of:
determining the tobacco transplanting date of the tobacco Fujian tobacco area according to the method of any one of the embodiments;
transplanting tobacco according to a determined date.
Fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of some embodiments of a system for determining a tobacco transplant date in a fujian tobacco field according to the present invention.
As shown in FIG. 2, a system for determining tobacco transplanting date in Fujian tobacco district comprises
A previous natural year temperature-average day function fitting module 201, which fits a function F (x) of the previous year temperature-average day temperature changing with the date according to the date temperature-average day data of the previous natural year0)；
The agricultural annual average daily temperature variation prediction function establishing module 202 is based on F (x)0) Establishing a prediction function of annual degree-day average temperature of the agriculture along with date change;
the tobacco transplanting date determining module 203 determines the tobacco transplanting date based on the following rules according to the prediction function of annual average daily temperature variation along with date of the agriculture:
when the average temperature of the lowest day of the agricultural year is predicted to be less than 5 ℃, solving the date corresponding to the average temperature of the lowest day of the agricultural year closest to 5 ℃, and taking one or more days from the date to the 10 th day away from the date as the tobacco transplanting date;
when the temperature is predicted to be less than or equal to 5 ℃ and less than 10 ℃ on the lowest day of the agricultural year, taking one or more days between 1 month and 10 days of the agricultural year as the tobacco transplanting date;
when the average temperature of the lowest day of the agricultural year is predicted to be more than or equal to 10 ℃, taking one or more days between 10 days of 12 months and 20 days of 12 months of the agricultural year as the tobacco transplanting date.
In some embodiments, the system for determining a fujian tobacco zone tobacco transplant date is used to perform operations that implement the method for determining a fujian tobacco zone tobacco transplant date.
In some embodiments, a system for transplanting Fujian tobacco in a tobacco area is provided, comprising
A previous natural year temperature-day-average function fitting module for fitting a previous year temperature-day-average temperature-variation-with-date function F (x) according to the previous natural year temperature-day average data0)；
A prediction function building module for annual average temperature of the agricultural field along with date change according to F (x)0) Establishing annual daily average temperature of the agricultureA prediction function that varies with date;
a tobacco transplanting date determining module, which determines the tobacco transplanting date based on the following rules according to the prediction function of annual average daily temperature variation with date of the agriculture:
when the average temperature of the lowest day of the agricultural year is predicted to be less than 5 ℃, solving the date corresponding to the average temperature of the lowest day of the agricultural year closest to 5 ℃, and taking one or more days from the date to the 10 th day away from the date as the tobacco transplanting date;
when the average temperature of the lowest day of the agricultural year is predicted to be more than or equal to 5 ℃ and less than 10 ℃, taking one or more days between 1 month and 10 days of the agricultural year as the tobacco transplanting date;
when the lowest-day average temperature of the agricultural year is predicted to be more than or equal to 10 ℃, taking one or more days between 10 days of 12 months and 20 days of 12 months of the agricultural year as the tobacco transplanting date;
a tobacco transplanting module for transplanting the tobacco according to the date determined by the tobacco transplanting date determining module.
In some embodiments, there is provided an apparatus for determining a date of tobacco transplantation in fujian tobacco fields, comprising:
a memory 301 for storing instructions;
a processor 302 configured to execute the instructions to cause the apparatus for determining a Fujian tobacco transplanting date to perform operations for implementing the method for determining a Fujian tobacco transplanting date.
The means for determining the date of tobacco transplant in Fujian tobacco district described above may be implemented as a general purpose processor, programmable logic controller (PLE) for performing the functions described herein2) Digital Signal Processor (DSP), application specific integrated circuit (ASIE)2) A Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) or other programmable logic device, discrete gate or transistor logic, discrete hardware components, or any suitable combination thereof.
In some embodiments, a computer-readable storage medium is provided that stores computer instructions that, when executed by a processor, implement a method of determining a fujian tobacco zone tobacco transplant date.
The technical solution of the present application is further explained by the following specific examples.
Example 1 (Longyan city Yongding smoke zone)
Taking prediction of the transplanting period of 2014 agricultural years (26 days in 7 months to 25 days in 2015 7 months) in the Yongying tobacco district 2014 in Longyan as an example, the method for selecting the transplanting time for predicting Fujian tobacco comprises the following steps:
(1) fitting a function of the daily average temperature of the previous year changing along with the date according to the daily average temperature data of the previous natural year;
fitting a quadratic function F (x) to the daily mean temperature data for Neng 2013, 1 month, 25 days to 2013, 10 months, 31 days0):
F(x0)＝-0.00047x0 2+0.1707x0+12.0395, R of the constructed model2＝0.7322。
Wherein, F (x)0) Mean daily temperature, x, between 1 month 25 days and 10 months 31 days of the natural year0Denotes that 1. ltoreq. x is measured from day 1, 25 of the natural year0≤280。
Examples 1 to 3 each used Microsoft Excel 2007 software to perform fitting of a quadratic function, specifically, using a polynomial trend line (order 2) tool of the software to perform fitting of a quadratic function.
(2) Establishing a prediction function of annual degree-day average temperature of the agriculture along with date change;
wherein, the temperature-average variation-with-date prediction function L (x) from 26 days in 7 months to 24 days in 1 month1)
Mixing L (x)1) Defined as a quadratic function:
L(x1)＝-0.00047(x1+182)2+0.1707(x1+182) +12.0395, R of the constructed model2＝0.7322。
Wherein L represents the average daily temperature between 7 months and 26 days to 1 month and 24 days of the agricultural year; x is the number of1Denotes the day after 26 days of 7 months of the agricultural year, x1Is a positive integer, x is more than or equal to 11≤183。
Wherein the daily average temperature of 1 month, 24 days to 7 months, 25 days is a function (x) for predicting the change of the daily average temperature with the date2)
According to R (x)2) And L (x)1) And L (x)1) The forecast data of (1), 24 days of the day average temperature data is used as the center, the day average temperature data of 1, 24 days of the agricultural year from 1, 24 days to 7, 25 days of the permanent smoke area 2014 is calculated, and a forecast function R (x) of the day average temperature of 1, 24 days of the agricultural year from 7, 25 days of the agricultural year along with the change of the date2)：
R(x2)＝L(184-x2)
Wherein R (x)2) A mean daily temperature between 1 month and 24 days and 7 months and 25 days representing an agricultural year; x denotes the day from 1 month 24 days of the agricultural year, x2Is a positive integer, x is more than or equal to 12≤183。
(3) The method of this example was used to select a suitable time for transplanting tobacco
According to a function L (x)1) Forecast the year of agriculture, 1 month and 24 days (x)1183), and when the predicted value of the daily average temperature L (183) of 24 days 1 month and 1 month is 11.73 ℃ or more and 10 ℃, determining that the suitable transplanting time of the tobacco in the agricultural year in the permanent tobacco section 2014 is 2013, 12 months, 10 days to 12 months, 20 days.
(4) Contrast verification
The permanent tobacco area is mainly determined according to traditional experience, and the transplanting time per year is relatively fixed and is basically between 1 month and 20 days and 2 months and 10 days. The conventional transplantation (1 month 25 days to 1 month 30 days) was used as a comparative example. The example and the comparative example were conducted under the same conditions for cultivation management, and after harvesting the mature tobacco leaf samples, the quality difference between the tobacco leaf samples transplanted at a time (12 mid-month) predicted according to the method of the present example and the tobacco leaf samples of the comparative example (conventional transplantation) was compared.
The results of the quality evaluation showed that:
in the aspect of appearance quality, the appearance quality of the tobacco leaves transplanted by the method is better than that of comparative tobacco leaves, particularly the tobacco leaves at the middle and upper parts, which are expressed in that the tobacco leaves are orange in color, loose in structure, mature in maturity, moderate in identity, sufficient in oil content and full in chroma.
In the aspect of sensory quality evaluation, the sensory quality of the tobacco leaves transplanted by the method is better than that of the tobacco leaves in proportion, and the tobacco leaves in the embodiment have the advantages of obvious faint scent style and fresh and sweet feeling, good aroma quality, sufficient aroma amount, fine and soft smoke, less stimulation and comfortable aftertaste; the tobacco of the comparative example showed a strong and middle aroma, and a less sweet and refreshing feeling.
Example 2 (Sanming City Youxi smoke zone)
Taking the prediction of the transplanting period of the agriculture year 2015 in the Yuxi tobacco district (2015, 7 months, 26 days to 2016, 7 months, 25 days), the method for predicting the transplanting time of Fujian tobacco comprises the following steps:
(1) a quadratic function model of degree-day average temperature in the previous natural year:
fitting a quadratic function F (x) to the daily mean temperature data from Yuxi smoke region 2014 at 1 month 25 days to 2014 at 10 months 31 days0):
F(x0)＝-0.00066x0 2+0.24347x0+6.18096, R of the constructed model2＝0.8042。
Wherein, F (x)0) A day average temperature of 1 month 25 days to 10 months 31 days of the natural year, and x is 1. ltoreq. x0≤280。
(2) Establishing a prediction function of annual degree-day average temperature of the agriculture along with date change;
wherein, the agricultural year is 7 months, 26 days to 1 month, 24 days, the average temperature changes with the date and the prediction function L (x)1)
L(x1)＝-0.00066(x1+182)2+0.24347(x1+182)+6.18096。
Wherein L (x)1) A daily mean temperature between 7 months and 26 days to 1 month and 24 days representing an agricultural year; x is the number of1Denotes that 1. ltoreq.x on the days from 26 days of 7 months of the agricultural year1≤183。
Wherein, the daily average temperature of the agricultural year from 1 month and 24 days to 7 months and 25 days changes with the date and predicts a function R (x)2)
R(x2)＝L(184-x2)
Wherein R (x)2) A mean daily temperature between 1 month and 24 days and 7 months and 25 days representing an agricultural year; x is the number of2Denotes that 1. ltoreq. x on the days from 24 days of 1 month of the agricultural year2≤183。
(3) The method of this example was used to select a suitable time for transplanting tobacco
According to a function L (x)1) Forecast the year of agriculture, 1 month and 24 days (x)1183), when the predicted value of the daily average temperature of 24 days in 1 month is 7.12 ℃, L (183) is more than or equal to 5 ℃ and L (183) is less than 10 ℃, the suitable transplanting time of the tobacco in the youxi tobacco area 2015 agricultural year is determined to be 2015 natural year 1 last ten days in 1 month (1 month 1 day to 1 month 10 days).
(4) Contrast verification
The Yuxi tobacco district is mainly determined according to the traditional experience, and the transplanting time per year is relatively fixed and basically ranges from 1 month and 20 days to 2 months and 10 days. The conventional transplantation (1 month 25 days to 1 month 30 days) was used as a comparative example. The same conditions are adopted for cultivation management in the examples and the comparative examples, and after the mature tobacco leaf samples are harvested, the quality difference of the tobacco leaf samples transplanted at the time predicted by the method of the embodiment and the tobacco leaf samples of the comparative examples (conventional transplantation) is compared.
The results of the quality evaluation showed that:
in the aspect of appearance quality, the appearance quality of the tobacco leaves transplanted by the method is better than that of comparative tobacco leaves, particularly the tobacco leaves at the middle and upper parts, and the tobacco leaves are represented by orange color, loose structure, good maturity, moderate identity, sufficient oil content and full chromaticity.
In the aspect of sensory quality evaluation, the sensory quality of the tobacco leaves transplanted by the method of the embodiment is obviously better than that of the tobacco leaves in proportion, and the tobacco leaves in the embodiment have the characteristics of obvious fresh and sweet aroma, sweet and sweet aroma, green aroma, flower aroma and costustoot, good aroma quality, sufficient aroma amount, fine, smooth, mellow and long smoke, less stimulation and comfortable aftertaste.
Example 3 (Nanping municipal and tobacco section)
Taking prediction of transplanting time of 2016 agriculture years (2016, 7, 26 and 2017, 7, 25) in Nanping municipal and tobacco fields as an example, the method for predicting the transplanting time of Fujian tobacco comprises the following steps: :
(1) a quadratic function model of degree-day average temperature in the previous natural year:
daily average temperature data from 25 days 1 month 2015 to 31 days 10 month 2015 are used for simulationResultant quadratic function F (x)0):
F(x0)＝-0.00064x0 2+0.2292x0+6.3875, R of the constructed model2＝0.7663。
Wherein, F (x)0) A day average temperature of 1 month 25 days to 10 months 31 days of the natural year, and x is 1. ltoreq. x0≤280。
(2) Establishing a prediction function of annual degree-day average temperature of the agriculture along with date change;
wherein, the agricultural year is 7 months, 26 days to 1 month, 24 days, the average temperature changes with the date and the prediction function L (x)1)；
L(x1)＝-0.00064(x1+182)2+0.2292(x1+182) +6.3875, R of the constructed model2＝0.7663。
L(x1) A daily mean temperature between 7 months and 26 days to 1 month and 24 days representing an agricultural year; x is the number of1Represents that 1. ltoreq. x 1. ltoreq.183 on the days from 26 days of 7 months of the agricultural year.
Wherein, the daily average temperature of the agricultural year from 1 month and 24 days to 7 months and 25 days changes with the date and predicts a function R (x)2)；
R(x2)＝L(184-x2)
Wherein R (x)2) A mean daily temperature between 1 month and 24 days and 7 months and 25 days representing an agricultural year; x is the number of2Denotes that 1. ltoreq. x on the days from 24 days of 1 month of the agricultural year2≤183。
Note: 2016 (leap year) and 29 actual days in 2 months. However, the model assumes a 28 day 2 month period, fitting the quadratic function F (x)0) Establishing a prediction function L (x) of daily average temperature changing along with date1) And R (x)2) The time is ignored for 2 months and 29 days.
(3) The method of this example was used to select a suitable time for transplanting tobacco
According to the agricultural year, the temperature is averaged from 26 days in 7 months to 24 days in 1 month and the date changes and a prediction function L (x)1) Predicting the daily average temperature of 1 month and 24 days of the agricultural year), predicting the lowest daily average temperature (daily average temperature of 1 month and 24 days) of the whole year to be L (183) of 4.78 ℃ and less than 5 ℃, and enabling the tobacco to be suitable for the tobaccoThe optimum transplanting time is determined according to a function R (x)2) Determination from R (x)2) Determining R (x) in a function2) Value closest to x corresponding to 5 deg.C2Value, i.e. x22, 2016, 1, 25 months. Accordingly, the suitable transplanting time of 2016 agricultural annual tobacco in the political and tobacco regions is determined to be 1 month and 25 days to 2 months and 5 days in 2016.
(4) Contrast verification
The political and tobacco regions are mainly based on traditional experience to determine the transplanting period, and the transplanting time per year is relatively fixed and basically ranges from 3 months 20 days to 4 months 15 days. The conventional transplantation (3 months 25 days to 3 months 30 days) was used as a comparative example. The same conditions are adopted for cultivation management in the examples and the comparative examples, and after the mature tobacco leaf samples are harvested, the quality difference of the tobacco leaf samples transplanted at the time predicted by the method of the embodiment and the tobacco leaf samples of the comparative examples (conventional transplantation) is compared.
The results of the quality evaluation showed that:
in the aspect of appearance quality, the appearance quality of the tobacco leaves transplanted by the method is better than that of comparative tobacco leaves, particularly the tobacco leaves at the middle and upper parts, which is reflected in that the tobacco leaves are orange in color, loose in structure, better in maturity, moderate in identity, sufficient in oil content and full in chroma.
In the aspect of sensory quality evaluation, the sensory quality of the tobacco leaves transplanted by the method is better than that of the tobacco leaves in proportion, and the tobacco leaves in the embodiment have the advantages of obvious faint scent style and fresh and sweet feeling, good aroma quality, sufficient aroma amount, fine and soft smoke, less stimulation and comfortable aftertaste; the tobacco of the comparative example showed a strong and middle aroma, and a less sweet and refreshing feeling.
While specific embodiments of the invention have been described in detail, those skilled in the art will understand that: various modifications and changes in detail can be made in light of the overall teachings of the disclosure, and such changes are intended to be within the scope of the present invention. The full scope of the invention is given by the appended claims and any equivalents thereof.
Claims (9)
1. A method of determining a tobacco transplant date comprising:
fitting a function F (x) of the daily average temperature change with the date of the previous natural year according to the date change data of the daily average temperature of the previous natural year0)；
According to F (x)0) Establishing a prediction function of annual average daily temperature of the agriculture along with date change;
-determining, according to said prediction function, the tobacco transplant date based on the following rules:
when the lowest daily average temperature of the agricultural year is predicted to be less than 5 ℃, solving the date which is corresponding to the lowest daily average temperature and is next to the date of 5 ℃, and taking one or more days from the date to the 10 th day away from the date as the tobacco transplanting date;
when the temperature is predicted to be less than or equal to 5 ℃ and less than 10 ℃ on the lowest day of the agricultural year, taking one or more days between 1 month and 10 days of the agricultural year as the tobacco transplanting date;
when the average temperature of the lowest day of the agricultural year is predicted to be more than or equal to 10 ℃, taking one or more days between 10 days of 12 months and 20 days of 12 months of the agricultural year as the tobacco transplanting date;
wherein the function F (x) is fitted0) Comprises the following operations: daily average temperature data from 1 month 25 days to 10 months 31 days of the previous natural year are obtained, and a quadratic function is fitted accordingly:
F(x0)＝ax0 2+bx0+c
wherein x is0Denotes the day after 1 month and 25 days of the previous natural year, F (x)0) Denotes the x th0Average daily temperature/° c;
wherein, according to F (x)0) The step of establishing the prediction function of annual average daily temperature of the agriculture along with date change comprises the following operations:
the acquisition function F (x)0) The values of coefficients a, b and c in (1);
setting a daily average temperature-to-date variation prediction function of the agricultural year from 7 months, 26 days to 1 month, 24 days to L (x) based on the values of a, b and c1)：
L(x1)＝a(x1+182)2+b(x2+182)+c；
Wherein x is1Denotes that 1. ltoreq. x is present on the day of 26 days from 7 months1≤183，L(x1) Denotes the x th1Average daily temperature/° c;
setting a prediction function of the daily average temperature of the agricultural year from 1 month, 24 days to 7 months, 25 days as R (x)2)：
R(x2)＝L(184-x2)
Wherein x is2Means that 1. ltoreq. x in the days from 1 month and 24 days of the year of the agricultural crop2≤183，R(x2) Denotes the x th2Average daily temperature/deg.C.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the date of tobacco transplant is determined based on the following rules:
when the agricultural year L (183) < 5 ℃ is predicted, solving for R (x)2) X corresponding to the nearest 52Value x of2', from 24 days 1 month of the year of the agricultural year2From day to x2One or more days between' +10 days are the tobacco transplanting dates;
when the agricultural year is predicted to be more than or equal to L (183) and less than 10 ℃, taking one or more days between 1 month and 10 days of the agricultural year as the tobacco transplanting date;
when the agricultural year L (183) is predicted to be 10 ℃ or more, one or more days between 10 and 20 months in 12 months in the agricultural year are used as the tobacco transplanting date.
3. The method of claim 1, for determining a tobacco transplant date for a fujian tobacco field.
4. The method of claim 3, wherein said date is selected from the group consisting of tobacco transplantation date in Yongding tobacco district, Sanming City Youxin tobacco district, and Nanping tobacco district.
5. A method of transplanting tobacco, comprising the steps of:
determining a tobacco transplant date in a tobacco Fujian tobacco district according to the method of any one of claims 1 to 4;
transplanting tobacco according to the determined date.
6. A system for determining tobacco transplanting date in Fujian tobacco district comprises
A function fitting module for fitting a function F (x) of mean temperature of degree day of previous year varying with date according to the day mean temperature data of previous natural year0)；
A prediction function building module for annual average temperature of the agricultural field along with date change according to F (x)0) Establishing a prediction function of annual average daily temperature of the agriculture along with date change;
a tobacco transplanting date determining module, which determines the tobacco transplanting date based on the following rules according to the prediction function of annual average daily temperature variation with date of the agriculture:
when the lowest daily average temperature of the agricultural year is predicted to be less than 5 ℃, solving the date which is corresponding to the lowest daily average temperature and is next to the date of 5 ℃, and taking one or more days from the date to the 10 th day away from the date as the tobacco transplanting date;
when the temperature is predicted to be less than or equal to 5 ℃ and less than 10 ℃ on the lowest day of the agricultural year, taking one or more days between 1 month and 10 days of the agricultural year as the tobacco transplanting date;
when the average temperature of the lowest day of the agricultural year is predicted to be more than or equal to 10 ℃, taking one or more days between 10 days of 12 months and 20 days of 12 months of the agricultural year as the tobacco transplanting date;
wherein the fitting module fits a function F (x)0) Comprises the following operations: daily average temperature data from 1 month 25 days to 10 months 31 days of the previous natural year are obtained, and a quadratic function is fitted accordingly:
F(x0)＝ax0 2+bx0+c
wherein x is0Denotes the day after 1 month and 25 days of the previous natural year, F (x)0) Denotes the x th0Average daily temperature/° c;
wherein, the agricultural annual average daily temperature change with date prediction function establishing module is based on F (x)0) Establishing annual daily temperature equalization of the agricultureThe step of the date change prediction function comprises the operations of:
the acquisition function F (x)0) The values of coefficients a, b and c in (1);
setting a daily average temperature-to-date variation prediction function of the agricultural year from 7 months, 26 days to 1 month, 24 days to L (x) based on the values of a, b and c1)：
L(x1)＝a(x1+182)2+b(x2+182)+c；
Wherein x is1Denotes that 1. ltoreq. x is present on the day of 26 days from 7 months1≤183，L(x1) Denotes the x th1Average daily temperature/° c;
setting a prediction function of the daily average temperature of the agricultural year from 1 month, 24 days to 7 months, 25 days as R (x)2)：
R(x2)＝L(184-x2)
Wherein x is2Means that 1. ltoreq. x in the days from 1 month and 24 days of the year of the agricultural crop2≤183，R(x2) Denotes the x th2Average daily temperature/deg.C.
7. A system for transplanting Fujian tobacco in tobacco district comprises
A previous natural year temperature-day-average function fitting module for fitting a previous year temperature-day-average temperature-variation-with-date function F (x) according to the previous natural year temperature-day average data0)；
A prediction function building module for annual average temperature of the agricultural field along with date change according to F (x)0) Establishing a prediction function of annual average daily temperature of the agriculture along with date change;
a tobacco transplanting date determining module, which determines the tobacco transplanting date based on the following rules according to the prediction function of annual average daily temperature variation with date of the agriculture:
when the average temperature of the lowest day of the agricultural year is predicted to be less than 5 ℃, solving the date corresponding to the average temperature of the lowest day of the agricultural year closest to 5 ℃, and taking one or more days from the date to the 10 th day away from the date as the tobacco transplanting date;
when the average temperature of the lowest day of the agricultural year is predicted to be more than or equal to 5 ℃ and less than 10 ℃, taking one or more days between 1 month and 10 days of the agricultural year as the tobacco transplanting date;
when the lowest-day average temperature of the agricultural year is predicted to be more than or equal to 10 ℃, taking one or more days between 10 days of 12 months and 20 days of 12 months of the agricultural year as the tobacco transplanting date;
a tobacco transplanting module for transplanting tobacco according to the date determined by the tobacco transplanting date determining module;
wherein the former natural year average temperature per day function fitting module fits function F (x)0) Comprises the following operations: daily average temperature data from 1 month 25 days to 10 months 31 days of the previous natural year are obtained, and a quadratic function is fitted accordingly:
F(x0)＝ax0 2+bx0+c
wherein x is0Denotes the day after 1 month and 25 days of the previous natural year, F (x)0) Denotes the x th0Average daily temperature/° c;
wherein, the agricultural annual average daily temperature change with date prediction function establishment module is based on F (x)0) The step of establishing the prediction function of annual average daily temperature of the agriculture along with date change comprises the following operations:
the acquisition function F (x)0) The values of coefficients a, b and c in (1);
setting a daily average temperature-to-date variation prediction function of the agricultural year from 7 months, 26 days to 1 month, 24 days to L (x) based on the values of a, b and c1)：
L(x1)＝a(x1+182)2+b(x2+182)+c；
Wherein x is1Denotes that 1. ltoreq. x is present on the day of 26 days from 7 months1≤183，L(x1) Denotes the x th1Average daily temperature/° c;
setting a prediction function of the daily average temperature of the agricultural year from 1 month, 24 days to 7 months, 25 days as R (x)2)：
R(x2)＝L(184-x2)
Wherein x is2Means that 1. ltoreq. x in the days from 1 month and 24 days of the year of the agricultural crop2≤183，R(x2) Denotes the x th2Average daily temperature/deg.C.
8. An apparatus for determining a tobacco transplant date in Fujian tobacco district, comprising:
a memory to store instructions;
a processor for executing the instructions to cause the means for determining a Fujian tobacco transplant date to perform operations to implement the method of any one of claims 1-4.
9. A computer-readable storage medium storing computer instructions which, when executed by a processor, implement the method of any one of claims 1-4.
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