CN109871988B - Flood forecast early warning precision analysis method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention relates to a flood forecast early warning precision analysis method, and provides a novel forecast early warning 'grade-reliability' comprehensive evaluation method from the pragmatic perspective of flood peak flow early warning, so as to meet the actual demand of flood control forecast early warning, solve the problems that high-strength human activities affect a basin and scientific and reasonable flood forecast early warning precision evaluation indexes are lacked, realize accurate precision division aiming at flood peak flow early warning, and have strong application prospects.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a flood forecast early warning accuracy analysis method, and belongs to the technical field of flood forecast accuracy analysis.
Background
Generally, the flood forecast warning includes two types of advance warning and approach warning. In recent years, high-intensity human activities (such as engineering construction of water conservancy projects, water and soil conservation and the like) change the natural basin production convergence rule, and great challenges are brought to flood forecast and early warning. From the perspective of flood control and dispatching, the flood forecast and early warning mainly aims at realizing advanced early warning and prolonging the forecast period, so that trend or magnitude forecast is the characteristic of the flood forecast and early warning at present and is a practical means for solving the challenging problem of the flood forecast and early warning at present. However, an effective evaluation index system is still lacked in the aspects of flood tendency, magnitude prediction and reliability evaluation, and a practical flood prediction early warning evaluation index system is very necessary to be provided so as to meet the requirements of actual prediction and early warning.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to solve the technical problem of providing a flood forecast early warning precision analysis method which considers multidimensional practical factors and can realize accurate precision division aiming at flood peak flow early warning.
The invention adopts the following technical scheme for solving the technical problems: the invention designs a flood forecast early warning precision analysis method for obtaining flood peak flow forecast early warning evaluation of N-field flood in a target area, which comprises the following steps:
step A, obtaining flood peak flow measured values X of N fields of flood in a target areanAnd flood peak flow prediction values Y corresponding to flood waters of each fieldnPresetting l flood peak flow thresholds aiming at N-field flood, wherein the flood peak flow thresholds are different from each other, and then entering the step B; wherein N belongs to {1, … and N }, and l is more than or equal to 1 and less than N;
step B, according to flood peak flow measured value XnThe method comprises the steps of (1) sequencing N fields of flood according to the ascending or descending sequence, obtaining N fields of actual measurement sequencing of flood peak flow, dividing the N fields of actual measurement sequencing of the flood peak flow into l +1 actual measurement levels of the flood peak flow according to each threshold of the flood peak flow, and obtaining actual measurement level sequences of the flood peak flow to which each field of flood belongs;
at the same time, according to flood peak flow predicting value YnAnd each XnThe N fields of flood peak flow forecasting sequences are divided into l +1 flood peak flow forecasting grades according to all flood peak flow threshold values, and the flood peak flow forecasting grade sequences to which all fields of flood belong are obtained;
then entering step C;
step C, aiming at N floods in the target area respectively, obtaining flood peak flow measured values X corresponding to the floodsnForecast value Y of flood peak flownRelative error between E and EnAnd determining the relative error EnIf the flow rate of the flood peak falls within the preset error fluctuation range, judging that the forecast precision of the flood peak flow rate level of the field is qualified,
if not, further judging whether the actual measurement grade sequence of the peak flow of the field flood belongs to the same as the peak flow forecast grade sequence of the field flood, if so, judging that the flood peak flow grade forecast precision of the field flood is qualified, otherwise, judging that the flood peak flow grade forecast precision of the field flood is unqualified;
after the operation is finished for each flood, the step D is carried out;
step D, obtaining the field number M of the flood with qualified flood peak flow rate grade forecasting precision1And combining all flood field numbers N to obtain the grade forecast precision qualification rate r of the flood fields N in the target areagradeThen entering step E;
step E, adopting flood peak flow measured values X of floods in each field in the target areanFlood peak flow forecast value YnCalculating parameters of the hydrological uncertainty analysis model, obtaining a hydrological uncertainty analysis model corresponding to N-field flood in the target area, and then entering the step F;
step F, based on the hydrological uncertainty analysis model corresponding to the N floods in the target area, according to the flood peak flow measured value X corresponding to each floodnFlood peak flow forecast value YnObtaining one-time standard deviation sigma confidence intervals corresponding to the floods in each field respectively, and then entering the step G;
g, judging flood peak flow forecast values Y corresponding to floods respectively aiming at N floods in the target areanIf the flood peak flow reliability is not qualified, entering a step (H);
step H, obtaining the field number M of the flood with qualified flood peak flow reliability forecasting precision2And combining all flood field numbers N to obtain the reliability forecast precision qualification rate r of the flood fields N in the target areareliabilityThen entering step I;
step I, forecasting precision qualification rate r according to flood gradegradeCorresponding preset weight omegagradeAnd flood reliability forecast accuracy qualification rate rreliabilityCorresponding preset weight omegareliabilityAdopting a weighting method to obtain the flood peak flow corresponding to N fields of flood in the target areaQuantity forecast early warning qualification rate, wherein omegagrade+ωreliability＝1。
As a preferred technical scheme of the invention: step J is also included, after step I is executed, step J is entered;
and J, acquiring the flood peak flow forecasting and early warning precision grade corresponding to the N fields of flood in the target area according to the flood peak flow forecasting and early warning qualification rate corresponding to the N fields of flood in the target area and the flood peak flow forecasting and early warning qualification rate interval corresponding to each preset flood peak flow forecasting and early warning precision grade.
As a preferred technical solution of the present invention, in the step C, the following formula is respectively applied to N-field floods in the target area:
obtaining flood peak flow measured value X corresponding to floodnForecast value Y of flood peak flownRelative error between E and En。
As a preferred technical solution of the present invention, in the step D, the number M of flood fields with qualified flood peak flow rate class forecast accuracy is obtained1And combining the number N of all flood fields according to the following formula:
obtaining the grade forecast precision qualification rate r of the N-field flood in the target areagrade。
As a preferred technical solution of the present invention, in the step H, the number M of flood fields with qualified flood peak flow reliability prediction accuracy is obtained2And combining the number N of all flood fields according to the following formula:
obtaining reliability forecast precision qualification rate r of N-field flood in target areareliability。
As a preferred technical solution of the present invention, in the step I, the accuracy qualification rate r is forecasted according to the flood gradegradeCorresponding preset weight omegagradeAnd flood reliability forecast accuracy qualification rate rreliabilityCorresponding preset weight omegareliabilityAccording to the following formula:
PR＝ωgrade·rgrade+ωreliability·rreliability
and obtaining the flood peak flow forecasting and early warning qualification rate PR corresponding to the N fields of flood in the target area.
Compared with the prior art, the flood forecast early warning precision analysis method has the following technical effects:
the invention designs a flood forecast early warning precision analysis method, and provides a novel forecast early warning grade-reliability comprehensive evaluation method from the pragmatic perspective of flood peak flow early warning, so as to meet the actual requirements of flood control forecast early warning, solve the problems that high-strength human activities affect a basin and scientific and reasonable flood forecast early warning precision evaluation indexes are lacked, realize accurate precision division aiming at flood peak flow early warning, and have strong application prospects.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of the flood forecast warning accuracy analysis method designed by the invention.
Detailed Description
The following description will explain embodiments of the present invention in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings.
The invention designs a flood forecast early warning precision analysis method, which is used for obtaining flood peak flow forecast early warning evaluation of N-field flood in a target area, and in practical application, as shown in figure 1, the following steps are specifically executed:
step A, obtaining flood peak flow measured values X of N fields of flood in a target areanAnd flood peak flow forecast values corresponding to flood of each fieldYnPresetting l flood peak flow thresholds aiming at N-field flood, wherein the flood peak flow thresholds are different from each other, and then entering the step B; wherein N belongs to {1, … and N }, and l is more than or equal to 1 and less than N.
In a specific practical application, the design l is 2, and the 2 flood peak flow thresholds are respectively a rounding a of 25%. N and a rounding B of 75%. N, that is, A, B are two flood peak flow thresholds.
Step B, in practical application, according to flood peak flow measured value XnThe descending order of the N flood peak flow rates is sorted, the N flood peak flow rate actual measurement sorting is obtained, the N flood peak flow rate actual measurement sorting order is divided into 3 flood peak flow rate actual measurement grades according to A, B two flood peak flow rate threshold values, namely the actual measurement grades are sequentially defined as a large flood peak flow rate actual measurement grade, a medium flood peak flow rate actual measurement grade and a small flood peak flow rate actual measurement grade, and thus the flood peak flow rate actual measurement grade orders of the flood fields are obtained.
At the same time, according to flood peak flow predicting value YnAnd each XnAnd according to the same descending order, sequencing N fields of flood, obtaining N fields of flood peak flow forecast sequencing, and dividing the N fields of flood peak flow forecast sequencing order into 3 flood peak flow forecast grades according to A, B two flood peak flow threshold values, namely sequentially defining the flood peak flow forecast grades as a large flood peak flow forecast grade, a medium flood peak flow forecast grade and a small flood peak flow forecast grade, so as to obtain the flood peak flow forecast grade sequence to which each field of flood belongs respectively.
Then step C is entered.
And C, aiming at N fields of flood in the target area respectively, according to the following formula:
obtaining flood peak flow measured value X corresponding to floodnForecast value Y of flood peak flownRelative error between E and EnAnd determining the relative error EnWhether the error falls within the preset error fluctuation range or not is actually determinedIn this case, the preset error fluctuation range may be specifically set to [ -20%, + 20% ]]If yes, judging that the flood peak flow rate grade forecast precision of the field is qualified;
and if not, further judging whether the actual measurement grade sequence of the peak flow of the field flood belongs to the same as the peak flow forecast grade sequence of the field flood, if so, judging that the flood peak flow grade forecast precision of the field flood is qualified, and otherwise, judging that the flood peak flow grade forecast precision of the field flood is unqualified.
And D, after the operations are finished aiming at the flood of each field respectively, entering the step D.
Step D, obtaining the field number M of the flood with qualified flood peak flow rate grade forecasting precision1And combining the number N of all flood fields according to the following formula:
obtaining the grade forecast precision qualification rate r of the N-field flood in the target areagradeThen, step E is entered.
Step E, adopting flood peak flow measured values X of floods in each field in the target areanFlood peak flow forecast value YnAnd F, calculating parameters of the hydrological uncertainty analysis model, obtaining the hydrological uncertainty analysis model corresponding to the N-field flood in the target area, and then entering the step F.
Step F, based on the hydrological uncertainty analysis model corresponding to the N floods in the target area, according to the flood peak flow measured value X corresponding to each floodnFlood peak flow forecast value YnAnd G, obtaining one-time standard deviation sigma confidence intervals corresponding to the floods in each field respectively, and then entering the step G.
G, judging flood peak flow forecast values Y corresponding to floods respectively aiming at N floods in the target areanAnd (D) judging whether the flood peak flow reliability is qualified or not if the flood peak flow reliability is within the one-time standard deviation sigma confidence interval corresponding to the flood, otherwise judging that the flood peak flow reliability is unqualified, and entering the step (H).
Step H, obtaining the field number M of the flood with qualified flood peak flow reliability forecasting precision2And combining the number N of all flood fields according to the following formula:
obtaining reliability forecast precision qualification rate r of N-field flood in target areareliabilityThen step I is entered.
Step I, forecasting precision qualification rate r according to flood gradegradeCorresponding preset weight omegagradeAnd flood reliability forecast accuracy qualification rate rreliabilityCorresponding preset weight omegareliabilityAdopting a weighting method according to the following formula:
PR＝ωgrade·rgrade+ωreliability·rreliability
obtaining flood peak flow forecast early warning qualification rate PR corresponding to N fields of flood in the target area, and then entering step J, wherein omega isgrade+ωreliabilityIn practical application, ω can be designed specificallygrade＝0.5，ωreliability＝0.5。
And J, acquiring flood peak flow forecasting and early warning precision grades corresponding to the N fields of flood in the target area according to the flood peak flow forecasting and early warning qualification rate corresponding to the N fields of flood in the target area and a flood peak flow forecasting and early warning qualification rate interval corresponding to each preset flood peak flow forecasting and early warning precision grade, namely as shown in the following table 1.
| Grade of accuracy | Superior food | Good wine | In | Difference (D) |
| Percent of pass/%) | PR≥90％ | 80％≤PR＜90％ | 70％≤PR＜80％ | PR＜70％ |
TABLE 1
The flood forecast early warning precision analysis method designed by the technical scheme is based on the pragmatic perspective of flood peak flow early warning, and provides a novel comprehensive forecast early warning 'grade-reliability' evaluation method so as to meet the actual requirements of flood control forecast early warning, solve the problems that high-intensity human activities affect a basin and scientific and reasonable flood forecast early warning precision evaluation indexes are lacked, can realize accurate precision division aiming at flood peak flow early warning, and has a strong application prospect.
The embodiments of the present invention have been described in detail with reference to the drawings, but the present invention is not limited to the above embodiments, and various changes can be made within the knowledge of those skilled in the art without departing from the gist of the present invention.
Claims (6)
1. A flood forecast early warning precision analysis method is used for obtaining flood peak flow forecast early warning evaluation of N-field flood in a target area, and is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step A, obtaining flood peak flow measured values X of N fields of flood in a target areanAnd flood peak flow prediction values Y corresponding to flood waters of each fieldnPresetting l flood peak flow thresholds aiming at N-field flood, wherein the flood peak flow thresholds are different from each other, and then entering the stepB; wherein N belongs to {1, … and N }, and l is more than or equal to 1 and less than N;
step B, according to flood peak flow measured value XnThe method comprises the steps of (1) sequencing N fields of flood according to the ascending or descending sequence, obtaining N fields of actual measurement sequencing of flood peak flow, dividing the N fields of actual measurement sequencing of the flood peak flow into l +1 actual measurement levels of the flood peak flow according to each threshold of the flood peak flow, and obtaining actual measurement level sequences of the flood peak flow to which each field of flood belongs;
at the same time, according to flood peak flow predicting value YnAnd each XnThe N fields of flood peak flow forecasting sequences are divided into l +1 flood peak flow forecasting grades according to all flood peak flow threshold values, and the flood peak flow forecasting grade sequences to which all fields of flood belong are obtained;
then entering step C;
step C, aiming at N floods in the target area respectively, obtaining flood peak flow measured values X corresponding to the floodsnForecast value Y of flood peak flownRelative error between E and EnAnd determining the relative error EnIf the flow rate of the flood peak falls within the preset error fluctuation range, judging that the forecast precision of the flood peak flow rate level of the field is qualified,
if not, further judging whether the actual measurement grade sequence of the peak flow of the field flood belongs to the same as the peak flow forecast grade sequence of the field flood, if so, judging that the flood peak flow grade forecast precision of the field flood is qualified, otherwise, judging that the flood peak flow grade forecast precision of the field flood is unqualified;
after the operation is finished for each flood, the step D is carried out;
step D, obtaining the field number M of the flood with qualified flood peak flow rate grade forecasting precision1And combining all flood field numbers N to obtain the grade forecast precision qualification rate r of the flood fields N in the target areagradeThen entering step E;
step E, adopting flood peak flow measured values X of floods in each field in the target areanFlood peak flow forecast value YnAnd calculating to obtain uncertainty of hydrologyF, parameters of the sexual analysis model are obtained, a hydrological uncertainty analysis model corresponding to the N fields of flood in the target area is obtained, and then the step F is carried out;
step F, based on the hydrological uncertainty analysis model corresponding to the N floods in the target area, according to the flood peak flow measured value X corresponding to each floodnFlood peak flow forecast value YnObtaining one-time standard deviation sigma confidence intervals corresponding to the floods in each field respectively, and then entering the step G;
g, judging flood peak flow forecast values Y corresponding to floods respectively aiming at N floods in the target areanIf the flood peak flow reliability is not qualified, entering a step (H);
step H, obtaining the field number M of the flood with qualified flood peak flow reliability forecasting precision2And combining all flood field numbers N to obtain the reliability forecast precision qualification rate r of the flood fields N in the target areareliabilityThen entering step I;
step I, forecasting precision qualification rate r according to flood gradegradeCorresponding preset weight omegagradeAnd flood reliability forecast accuracy qualification rate rreliabilityCorresponding preset weight omegareliabilityAdopting a weighting method to obtain the flood peak flow forecasting and early warning qualification rate corresponding to N fields of flood in the target area, wherein omegagrade+ωreliability＝1。
2. The flood forecast warning accuracy analysis method according to claim 1, wherein: step J is also included, after step I is executed, step J is entered;
and J, acquiring the flood peak flow forecasting and early warning precision grade corresponding to the N fields of flood in the target area according to the flood peak flow forecasting and early warning qualification rate corresponding to the N fields of flood in the target area and the flood peak flow forecasting and early warning qualification rate interval corresponding to each preset flood peak flow forecasting and early warning precision grade.
3. The method of claim 1, wherein in the step C, the following formula is used for N floods in the target area:
obtaining flood peak flow measured value X corresponding to floodnForecast value Y of flood peak flownRelative error between E and En。
4. The method of claim 1, wherein in the step D, the number M of flood fields with qualified flood peak flow rate level forecast accuracy is obtained1And combining the number N of all flood fields according to the following formula:
obtaining the grade forecast precision qualification rate r of the N-field flood in the target areagrade。
5. The method of claim 1, wherein in the step H, the number M of flood fields with qualified flood peak flow reliability prediction accuracy is obtained2And combining the number N of all flood fields according to the following formula:
obtaining reliability forecast precision qualification rate r of N-field flood in target areareliability。
6. The flood forecast warning accuracy of claim 1The analysis method is characterized in that in the step I, the precision qualification rate r is forecasted according to the flood gradegradeCorresponding preset weight omegagradeAnd flood reliability forecast accuracy qualification rate rreliabilityCorresponding preset weight omegareliabilityAccording to the following formula:
PR＝ωgrade·rgrade+ωreliability·rreliability
and obtaining the flood peak flow forecasting and early warning qualification rate PR corresponding to the N fields of flood in the target area.
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