CN109657187B - 10kV cable line state evaluation method - Google Patents

10kV cable line state evaluation method Download PDF

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CN109657187B
CN109657187B CN201811347139.8A CN201811347139A CN109657187B CN 109657187 B CN109657187 B CN 109657187B CN 201811347139 A CN201811347139 A CN 201811347139A CN 109657187 B CN109657187 B CN 109657187B
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state
cable line
cable
probability
outage
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CN109657187A (en
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吴炬卓
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Guangdong Power Grid Co Ltd
Zhuhai Power Supply Bureau of Guangdong Power Grid Co Ltd
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Guangdong Power Grid Co Ltd
Zhuhai Power Supply Bureau of Guangdong Power Grid Co Ltd
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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06F—ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
    • G06F17/00—Digital computing or data processing equipment or methods, specially adapted for specific functions
    • G06F17/10—Complex mathematical operations
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
    • G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
    • G06Q10/0635—Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00—Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/06—Electricity, gas or water supply
    • Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y04—INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS
    • Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
    • Y04S10/00—Systems supporting electrical power generation, transmission or distribution
    • Y04S10/50—Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications

Abstract

The invention provides a 10kV cable line state evaluation method. A10 kV cable line state evaluation method comprises the following steps: s1, for a 10kV cable line, establishing a full-state model according to possible states of the 10kV cable line in the use process; s2, based on the full-state model obtained in the step S1, a state transition model of the 10kV cable line is obtained by applying the Markov principle; s3, obtaining a state probability matrix and a state transition density matrix of the 10kV cable line based on the state transition model obtained in the step S2; s4, solving a linear algebraic equation set based on the state probability matrix and the state transition density matrix obtained in the step S3, and obtaining the probability that the 10kV cable line is in each state. The method of the invention considers the transition between the states of the cable lines, so that the reliability evaluation is more comprehensive and accurate.

Description

10kV cable line state evaluation method
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of power grid reliability, in particular to a 10kV cable line state evaluation method.
Background
The 10kV cable circuit is important electrical equipment in a distribution network system and is one of decisive factors for ensuring reliable transmission of electric energy. Currently, in the aspect of 10kV cable circuit reliability research, fault diagnosis and state evaluation are mainly focused, and the reliability research is relatively lacking.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides a 10kV cable line state evaluation method for overcoming at least one defect in the prior art. The method of the invention considers the transition between the states of the cable lines, so that the reliability evaluation is more comprehensive and accurate.
In order to solve the technical problems, the invention adopts the following technical scheme: a10 kV cable line state evaluation method comprises the following steps:
s1, for a 10kV cable line, establishing a full-state model according to possible states of the 10kV cable line in the use process;
s2, based on the full-state model obtained in the step S1, a state transition model of the 10kV cable line is obtained by applying the Markov principle;
s3, obtaining a state probability matrix and a state transition density matrix of the 10kV cable line based on the state transition model obtained in the step S2;
s4, solving a linear algebraic equation set based on the state probability matrix and the state transition density matrix obtained in the step S3, and obtaining the probability that the 10kV cable line is in each state.
Further, in the step S1, for the 10kV cable line, the possible states of the 10kV cable line during use include an available state and an unavailable state; the available state is an operation state, and the unavailable state comprises a planned outage state and an unplanned outage state; the planned outage state includes a preventive test outage state, and the unplanned outage state includes a cable body fault outage state, a cable termination head fault outage state, and a cable intermediate head fault outage state. From these states, a full state model of the 10kV cable line can be established.
Further, in the step S2, in the state transition model of the 10kV cable line obtained by applying the markov principle, the failure rates of the cable body failure, the cable termination failure, and the cable intermediate joint failure are λ respectively 1 、λ 2 、λ 3 Repair rates were μ, respectively 1 、μ 2 、μ 3 . The test rate of the preventive test is lambda 4 Recovery rate is mu 4 。
Further, in the step S3, the obtained state probability matrix P and the state transition density matrix a of the 10kV cable line are respectively:
Figure BDA0001864029690000021
/>
Figure BDA0001864029690000022
where Δt is a minute time interval.
Further, in the step S4, the specific steps for obtaining the probability that the 10kV cable line is in each state are as follows:
s41, setting the probability of the 10kV cable line in an operation state, a cable body fault shutdown state, a cable terminal fault shutdown state, a cable intermediate joint fault shutdown state and a preventive test shutdown state as p 0 、p 1 、p 2 、p 3 、p 4 The following steps are:
Figure BDA0001864029690000023
s42, solving a linear algebraic equation set according to PA=0, and obtaining the probability that the 10kV cable line is in each state as follows:
Figure BDA0001864029690000024
compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
the method of the invention considers the transition of the cable line among all possible states, so that the reliability evaluation is more comprehensive and accurate.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a schematic overall flow diagram of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of a full state model in the present invention.
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of a state transition model in the present invention.
Detailed Description
The drawings are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be construed as limiting the present patent; for the purpose of better illustrating the embodiments, certain elements of the drawings may be omitted, enlarged or reduced and do not represent the actual product dimensions; it will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that certain well-known structures in the drawings and descriptions thereof may be omitted. The positional relationship depicted in the drawings is for illustrative purposes only and is not to be construed as limiting the present patent.
As shown in fig. 1, a 10kV cable line state evaluation method includes the following steps:
s1, for a 10kV cable line, a full-state model is built according to possible states of the 10kV cable line in the use process. For a 10kV cable line, possible states of the 10kV cable line during use include an available state and an unavailable state; the available state is an operation state, and the unavailable state comprises a planned outage state and an unplanned outage state; the planned outage state includes a preventive test outage state, and the unplanned outage state includes a cable body fault outage state, a cable termination head fault outage state, and a cable intermediate head fault outage state. From these states, a full state model of the 10kV cabling can be built, as shown in fig. 2.
S2, based on the full-state model obtained in the step S1, a state transition model of the 10kV cable line is obtained by applying the Markov principle. The state transition model of the obtained 10kV cable line is shown in figure 3 by using the Markov principle, wherein the failure rates of the cable body failure, the cable terminal end failure and the cable intermediate joint failure are respectively lambda 1 、λ 2 、λ 3 Repair rates were μ, respectively 1 、μ 2 、μ 3 . The test rate of the preventive test is lambda 4 Recovery rate is mu 4 。
S3, obtaining a state probability matrix and a state transition density matrix of the 10kV cable line based on the state transition model obtained in the step S2. The obtained state probability matrix P and state transition density matrix A of the 10kV cable line are respectively as follows:
Figure BDA0001864029690000041
Figure BDA0001864029690000042
where Δt is a minute time interval.
S4, solving a linear algebraic equation set based on the state probability matrix and the state transition density matrix obtained in the step S3, and obtaining the probability that the 10kV cable line is in each state. The method comprises the following specific steps:
s41, setting the probability of the 10kV cable line in an operation state, a cable body fault shutdown state, a cable terminal fault shutdown state, a cable intermediate joint fault shutdown state and a preventive test shutdown state as p 0 、p 1 、p 2 、p 3 、p 4 The following steps are:
Figure BDA0001864029690000043
s42, solving a linear algebraic equation set according to PA=0, and obtaining the probability that the 10kV cable line is in each state as follows:
Figure BDA0001864029690000044
it is to be understood that the above examples of the present invention are provided for clarity of illustration only and are not limiting of the embodiments of the present invention. Other variations or modifications of the above teachings will be apparent to those of ordinary skill in the art. It is not necessary here nor is it exhaustive of all embodiments. Any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement, etc. which come within the spirit and principles of the invention are desired to be protected by the following claims.

Claims (2)

1. The 10kV cable line state evaluation method is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
s1, for a 10kV cable line, establishing a full-state model according to possible states of the 10kV cable line in the use process;
s2, based on the full-state model obtained in the step S1, a state transition model of the 10kV cable line is obtained by applying the Markov principle;
s3, obtaining a state probability matrix and a state transition density matrix of the 10kV cable line based on the state transition model obtained in the step S2;
s4, solving a linear algebraic equation set based on the state probability matrix and the state transition density matrix obtained in the step S3 to obtain the probability of the 10kV cable line in each state;
in said step S1, for a 10kV cable line, the possible states that it may appear during use include an available state and an unavailable state; the available state is an operation state, and the unavailable state comprises a planned outage state and an unplanned outage state; the planned outage state comprises a preventive test outage state, and the unplanned outage state comprises a cable body fault outage state, a cable terminal fault outage state and a cable intermediate joint fault outage state;
in the step S2, in the state transition model of the 10kV cable line obtained by applying the Markov principle, the failure rates of the cable body failure, the cable terminal end failure and the cable intermediate joint failure are respectively lambda 1 、λ 2 、λ 3 Repair rates were μ, respectively 1 、μ 2 、μ 3 The test rate of the preventive test was lambda 4 Recovery rate is mu 4 ；
In the step S3, the obtained state probability matrix P and state transition density matrix a of the 10kV cable line are respectively:
Figure FDA0004128541370000011
Figure FDA0004128541370000021
where Δt is a minute time interval.
2. The method for evaluating the state of a 10kV cable line according to claim 1, wherein in the step S4, the specific step of obtaining the probability that the 10kV cable line is in each state is as follows:
s41, setting the probability of the 10kV cable line in an operation state, a cable body fault shutdown state, a cable terminal fault shutdown state, a cable intermediate joint fault shutdown state and a preventive test shutdown state as p 0 、p 1 、p 2 、p 3 、p 4 The following steps are:
Figure FDA0004128541370000022
s42, solving a linear algebraic equation set according to PA=0, and obtaining the probability that the 10kV cable line is in each state as follows:
Figure FDA0004128541370000023
/>
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Citations (5)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN102945315A (en) * 2012-10-25 2013-02-27 华北电力大学 Fully-digital relay protection reliability system based on software failure and human failure, and evaluation method of system
CN105203951A (en) * 2015-09-11 2015-12-30 中国矿业大学 Reliability quantitative evaluation method of one-level markov model switched reluctance motor system
WO2016026680A1 (en) * 2014-08-20 2016-02-25 Cassantec Ag Malfunction prediction for components and units of technical entities
CN106484983A (en) * 2016-09-29 2017-03-08 中国电力科学研究院 A kind of appraisal procedure of power system relay protection device running status and device
CN108022058A (en) * 2018-01-19 2018-05-11 华中科技大学 A kind of wind energy conversion system state reliability estimation method

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* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
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AU2005275209B2 (en) * 2004-07-15 2010-06-24 Advanced Neuromodulation Systems, Inc. Systems and methods for enhancing or affecting neural stimulation efficiency and/or efficacy

Patent Citations (5)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN102945315A (en) * 2012-10-25 2013-02-27 华北电力大学 Fully-digital relay protection reliability system based on software failure and human failure, and evaluation method of system
WO2016026680A1 (en) * 2014-08-20 2016-02-25 Cassantec Ag Malfunction prediction for components and units of technical entities
CN105203951A (en) * 2015-09-11 2015-12-30 中国矿业大学 Reliability quantitative evaluation method of one-level markov model switched reluctance motor system
CN106484983A (en) * 2016-09-29 2017-03-08 中国电力科学研究院 A kind of appraisal procedure of power system relay protection device running status and device
CN108022058A (en) * 2018-01-19 2018-05-11 华中科技大学 A kind of wind energy conversion system state reliability estimation method

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