CN109543877A - The device of multi-user's stealing leakage meter discriminating method under a kind of same feeder line - Google Patents
The device of multi-user's stealing leakage meter discriminating method under a kind of same feeder line Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention provides multi-user's stealing leakage meter discriminating method and device under a kind of same feeder line, wherein this method comprises the following steps: obtaining the practical electricity consumption data of each user and the practical electricity sales amount data of the feeder line in the feeder line selection time;Each user power consumption data in the selection time of route are predicted, the prediction electricity consumption data of each user is obtained, the electricity consumption difference of each user is obtained according to prediction electricity consumption data and practical electricity consumption data;Electricity sales amount data in the selection time of the feeder line are predicted, the prediction electricity sales amount data of the feeder line are obtained, the electricity sales amount difference of the feeder line is obtained according to prediction electricity sales amount data and practical electricity sales amount data;It is calculated according to electricity consumption difference and electricity sales amount difference and obtains multiple stealing leakage meter users.The present invention can rapidly and accurately lock suspicion user, have general applicability.
Description
Technical field
Multi-user under meter screening techniques field more particularly to a kind of same feeder line is leaked the present invention relates to user's stealing to steal
Leakance meter discriminating method and device.
Background technique
Shenzhen Power Supply Co., Ltd. had developed in 2004 be based primarily upon bayesian algorithm " stealing leakage meter analysis and
Early warning system ".It is promoted and applied, has retrieved great economic loss for company.However as the anti-steady development for stealing leakage detection work,
The limitation of the system algorithm is more and more obvious.The algorithm main target is that few quantity calculation accounting is maximum in accurate locked in line
The accuracy of user, the bigger locking of accounting are higher, that is to say, that if existing simultaneously two or more and stealing leakage meter in route
User, when especially surreptitiously electrical leakage quantity is not much different, which will be unable to accurately be locked.In addition, the algorithm is to abnormal section
Selection have very high requirement, it is desirable that user of service have more rich experience, do not have general applicability.
Summary of the invention
Technical problem to be solved by the present invention lies in provide multi-user's stealing leakage meter under a kind of same feeder line and screen
Method and apparatus, this method is by calculating the electricity consumption exception joint probability of combination user, so that it is determined that leakage meter suspicion of sneaking current is used
Family, this method can quick and precisely lock suspicion user, have universality.
In order to solve the above technical problem, the present invention provides multi-user's stealing leakage meter examination sides under a kind of same feeder line
Method includes the following steps:
It obtains and selects the practical electricity consumption data of each user and actually selling for the feeder line in the time under feeder line
Electricity data;
Each user power consumption data in the selection time under route are predicted, the pre- of each user is obtained
Electricity consumption data is surveyed, the electricity consumption difference of each user is obtained according to prediction electricity consumption data and practical electricity consumption data;
Electricity sales amount data in the selection time of the feeder line are predicted, the prediction of the feeder line is obtained
Electricity sales amount data obtain the electricity sales amount difference of the feeder line according to prediction electricity sales amount data and practical electricity sales amount data;
It is calculated according to electricity consumption difference and electricity sales amount difference and obtains multiple stealing leakage meter users.
Wherein, each user power utilization quantity in the selection time under route carries out predicting to specifically include:
Using electricity consumption data amount of the ARIMA model prediction user within the selection time.
Wherein, the electricity sales amount data in the selection time of the described pair of feeder line carry out predicting to specifically include:
Using the electricity sales amount data in the selection time of feeder line described in ARIMA model prediction.
Wherein, described to be specifically included according to electricity consumption difference and the multiple stealings leakage meter users of electricity sales amount difference calculating acquisition:
It is calculated using the electricity consumption difference that the electricity sales amount difference subtracts all users and obtains the selection time on feeder line
Interior abnormal electricity,
The electricity consumption for obtaining each user is calculated divided by the abnormal charge value using the electricity consumption difference of the user
Abnormal probability,
According to the electricity consumption exception joint probability of any number of users of electricity consumption exception probability calculation of each user, institute
Stating the corresponding combination user of abnormal joint probability maximum value is multiple stealings leakage meter user.
Wherein, described to be specifically included according to electricity consumption difference and the multiple stealings leakage meter users of electricity sales amount difference calculating acquisition:
Calculate any number of user power consumption differences and value, it obtains described and is worth and the ratio of the electricity sales amount difference
Example, corresponding group of the ratio maximum value are combined into the stealing leakage meter user.
The present invention also provides multi-user's stealing leakage meter screening device, described devices under a kind of same feeder line to include:
Acquiring unit, for obtaining the practical electricity consumption data and the feeder line that select each user in the time under feeder line
The practical electricity sales amount data of route;
User power consumption difference computational unit, for each user power consumption number in the selection time under route
According to being predicted, the prediction electricity consumption data of each user is obtained, it is each according to prediction electricity consumption data and the acquisition of practical electricity consumption data
The electricity consumption difference of user;
Feeder line electricity sales amount difference computational unit, for the electricity sales amount data in the selection time to the feeder line into
Row prediction, obtains the prediction electricity sales amount data of the feeder line, is obtained according to prediction electricity sales amount data and practical electricity sales amount data
The electricity sales amount difference of the feeder line;
Stealing leakage meter user's computing unit, leaks for calculating the multiple stealings of acquisition according to electricity consumption difference and electricity sales amount difference
Count user.
Wherein, use of the user power consumption difference computational unit using ARIMA model prediction user within the selection time
Electric data volume.
Wherein, when the feeder line electricity sales amount difference computational unit uses the selection of feeder line described in ARIMA model prediction
Interior electricity sales amount data.
Wherein, stealing leakage meter user's computing unit specifically includes:
Abnormal electricity computing unit, the electricity consumption difference for being subtracted all users using the electricity sales amount difference, which is calculated, to be obtained
Obtain the abnormal electricity on feeder line in the selection time;
User power consumption exception probability calculation unit is used for each of described abnormal power energy allocation to the feeder line
In the electricity consumption data of user, the electricity consumption exception probability for obtaining each user is calculated;
Electricity consumption exception joint probability calculation unit, for any according to the electricity consumption exception probability calculation of each user
The electricity consumption exception joint probability of multiple users, the corresponding combination user of the exception joint probability maximum value is that multiple stealings are leaked
Count user.
Wherein, stealing leakage meter user's computing unit specifically includes:
With value computing unit, calculate any number of user power consumption differences and value;Ratio computing unit, based on
Calculate described and value and the electricity sales amount difference ratio;
Comparing unit, for obtaining corresponding combination user according to ratio maximum value, the combination user is the stealing
Leakage meter user.
The beneficial effect of the embodiment of the present invention is: by calculating each user in predicting electricity consumption and practical electricity consumption
Then difference between difference and the prediction electricity sales amount and actual electricity sales amount of feeder line calculates the electricity consumption of multiple user's combinations
Abnormal joint probability, electricity consumption exception joint probability is bigger, illustrates the corresponding user's stealing leakage of the electricity consumption exception joint probability
The suspicion of meter is bigger.The present invention can rapidly and accurately lock suspicion user, have general applicability.
Detailed description of the invention
In order to more clearly explain the embodiment of the invention or the technical proposal in the existing technology, to embodiment or will show below
There is attached drawing needed in technical description to be briefly described, it should be apparent that, the accompanying drawings in the following description is only this
Some embodiments of invention for those of ordinary skill in the art without creative efforts, can be with
It obtains other drawings based on these drawings.
Fig. 1 is the process signal of multi-user's stealing leakage meter discriminating method under a kind of same feeder line of the embodiment of the present invention
Figure.
Fig. 2 is the structural representation of multi-user's stealing leakage meter screening device under a kind of same feeder line of the embodiment of the present invention
Figure.
Specific embodiment
The explanation of following embodiment be with reference to attached drawing, can be to the specific embodiment implemented to the example present invention.
Referring to shown in Fig. 1, the embodiment of the present invention one provides multi-user's stealing leakage meter under a kind of same feeder line and discriminates
Other method, this method comprises the following steps:
Step S1, it obtains and selects the practical electricity consumption data of each user and the reality of the feeder line in the time under feeder line
Electricity sales amount data.
Specifically, the selection time refers to line loss abnormal time section, and best in the selection time interval
Line loss per unit is selected to fluctuate more stable section, it is assumed that the abnormal time section initial time is t1, end time t2, then
Should at least there are 30 observation records between t1 and t2.
Specifically, the practical electricity consumption data of each user can be ammeter reading of the user in historical time section,
The practical sale of electricity data of the feeder line can be the historical readings of the electric energy meter at the feeder line critical point in selection time interval.
Step S2, each user power consumption data in the selection time under route are predicted, obtains each user
Prediction electricity consumption data, the electricity consumption difference of each user is then obtained according to prediction electricity consumption data and practical electricity consumption data.
Wherein, using ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model, autoregression
Moving average model(MA model)) model predicts each user power consumption data in the selection time under route, calculate obtain it is every
The prediction electricity consumption data of one user.
Wherein, the mathematic(al) representation of ARIMA model are as follows:
Wherein, p represents the lag number (lags) of time series data used in prediction model itself, also referred to as AR/Auto-
Regressive;D represents time series data and needs to carry out a few scale differentiation, is only stable, also cries Integrated.Q generation
The lag number (lags) of the prediction error used in table prediction model, also referred to as MA/Moving Average,For prediction
User power consumption data, yt-1For single order electricity consumption data, e before usert-1To lag single order residual error, φ1、φ2、…φp、θ1、
θ2、…θpFor regression coefficient.
After obtaining the electricity demand forecasting data of each user, subtracted with the electricity demand forecasting data of each user
The actual electricity consumption data for going user, obtain the electricity consumption difference of each user on feeder line.
Step S3, the electricity sales amount data in the selection time of the feeder line are predicted, obtains the prediction of the feeder line
Then electricity sales amount data obtain the electricity sales amount difference of the feeder line according to prediction electricity sales amount data and practical electricity sales amount data.
Specifically, it as the step S2, is predicted, is selected using electricity sales amount of the ARIMA model to feeder line
Prediction electricity sales amount data in time subtract actual electricity sales amount data using the electricity sales amount data of prediction, to obtain the feedback
The electricity sales amount difference of line.
It should be noted that step S1, S2 and S3 of the invention can first carry out any one or two therein, it can also
It is performed simultaneously with three.
Step S4, it is calculated according to multiple electricity consumption differences and electricity sales amount difference and obtains multiple stealing leakage meter users.
Wherein, the step S4 is specifically included:
It is calculated using the electricity consumption difference that the electricity sales amount difference subtracts all users and obtains the selection time on feeder line
Interior abnormal electricity,
The electricity consumption for obtaining each user is calculated divided by the abnormal charge value using the electricity consumption difference of the user
Abnormal probability,
According to the electricity consumption exception joint probability of any number of users of electricity consumption exception probability calculation of each user, institute
Stating the corresponding combination user of abnormal joint probability maximum value is multiple stealings leakage meter user.
Specifically, since whether stealing is independence probability event to each user, thus each user is being obtained
Electricity consumption exception probability after, by the electricity consumption exception probability multiplication of any number of user, then can obtain any combination
The electricity consumption exception joint probability of user.
It illustrating, it is assumed that this feeder line includes 4 users, and the electricity consumption exception probability of first user is p1, and second
The electricity consumption exception probability of a user is p2, and the electricity consumption exception probability of third party is p3, the electricity consumption of the 4th user
Abnormal probability be p4, it is assumed that calculate any two user combination electricity consumption exception joint probability, for example, first user and
The electricity consumption exception joint probability of two users, then with p1 multiplied by p2, it is assumed that the electricity consumption for calculating any three users joins extremely
Close probability, for example, first user, second user, third party electricity consumption exception joint probability, then with p1 multiplied by p2
Multiplied by p3.All abnormal joint probabilities are traversed, probability value illustrates that the corresponding user group of the probabilistic combination is combined into suspicion closer to 1
Doubt power stealing leakage meter user.
Certainly, skilled person will appreciate that, the step S4 can also calculate any combination user power consumption difference
With, and the ratio of the sum of the difference with the electricity sales amount difference is sought, ratio illustrates corresponding to the combination closer to 1
The probability of the stealing leakage meter of user is bigger.
It illustrates, it is assumed that a total of 4 users on this feeder line, wherein the difference of first user is a1, second
The difference of user is a2, the difference of third party is a3, the difference of the 4th user is a4, and electricity sales amount difference is A, is counted first
Calculate any two user difference and, for example, the difference and a1+a2 of the first user and second user, the first user and third are used
The difference of the difference and a1+a3 at family, second user and third user and and third user and fourth user difference and, utilize
Difference and divided by electricity sales amount difference A, obtains corresponding each ratio, for another example, calculate any three users difference and, then use
The difference of any three users and corresponding ratio value is obtained divided by electricity sales amount difference A, the difference of any number of users and institute are right
The ratio answered and 1 closer, illustrates that the probability of the power stealing leakage meter of multiple user is larger.
The embodiment of the present invention passes through the difference and feeder line for calculating each user in predicting electricity consumption and practical electricity consumption
It predicts the difference between electricity sales amount and actual electricity sales amount, then calculates the electricity consumption exception joint probability of multiple user's combinations,
Electricity consumption exception joint probability is bigger, illustrates that the suspicion of the corresponding user's stealing leakage meter of the electricity consumption exception joint probability is bigger.
The present invention can rapidly and accurately lock suspicion user, have general applicability.
Based on the embodiment of the present invention one, second embodiment of the present invention provides multi-user's stealing leakage meters under a kind of same feeder line
Screening device, as shown in Fig. 2, described device 2 includes:
Acquiring unit 21, for obtaining the practical electricity consumption data and the feedback that select each user in the time under feeder line
The practical electricity sales amount data of line route;
User power consumption difference computational unit 22, for each user power consumption in the selection time under route
Data are predicted, the prediction electricity consumption data of each user is obtained, and are obtained according to prediction electricity consumption data and practical electricity consumption data every
The electricity consumption difference of one user;
Feeder line electricity sales amount difference computational unit 23, for the electricity sales amount data in the selection time to the feeder line
It is predicted, obtains the prediction electricity sales amount data of the feeder line, obtained according to prediction electricity sales amount data and practical electricity sales amount data
Obtain the electricity sales amount difference of the feeder line;
Stealing leakage meter user's computing unit 24, obtains multiple stealings for calculating according to electricity consumption difference and electricity sales amount difference
Leakage meter user.
Wherein, use of the user power consumption difference computational unit using ARIMA model prediction user within the selection time
Electric data volume.
Wherein, when the feeder line electricity sales amount difference computational unit uses the selection of feeder line described in ARIMA model prediction
Interior electricity sales amount data.
Wherein, stealing leakage meter user's computing unit specifically includes:
Abnormal electricity computing unit, the electricity consumption difference for being subtracted all users using the electricity sales amount difference, which is calculated, to be obtained
Obtain the abnormal electricity on feeder line in the selection time;
User power consumption exception probability calculation unit is used for each of described abnormal power energy allocation to the feeder line
In the electricity consumption data of user, the electricity consumption exception probability for obtaining each user is calculated;
Electricity consumption exception joint probability calculation unit, for any according to the electricity consumption exception probability calculation of each user
The electricity consumption exception joint probability of multiple users, the corresponding combination user of the exception joint probability maximum value is that multiple stealings are leaked
Count user.
Wherein, stealing leakage meter user's computing unit specifically includes:
With value computing unit, calculate any number of user power consumption differences and value;Ratio computing unit, based on
Calculate described and value and the electricity sales amount difference ratio;
Comparing unit, for obtaining corresponding combination user according to ratio maximum value, the combination user is the stealing
Leakage meter user.
Working principle and brought beneficial effect in relation to the present embodiment please refer to the explanation of the embodiment of the present invention one,
Details are not described herein again.
The above disclosure is only the preferred embodiments of the present invention, cannot limit the right model of the present invention with this certainly
It encloses, therefore equivalent changes made in accordance with the claims of the present invention, is still within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. multi-user's stealing leakage meter discriminating method under a kind of same feeder line, which comprises the steps of:
Obtain the practical electricity sales amount that the practical electricity consumption data of each user and the feeder line in the time are selected under feeder line
Data;
Each user power consumption data in the selection time under route are predicted, the prediction for obtaining each user is used
Electric data obtain the electricity consumption difference of each user according to prediction electricity consumption data and practical electricity consumption data;
Electricity sales amount data in the selection time of the feeder line are predicted, the prediction sale of electricity of the feeder line is obtained
Data are measured, the electricity sales amount difference of the feeder line is obtained according to prediction electricity sales amount data and practical electricity sales amount data;
It is calculated according to electricity consumption difference and electricity sales amount difference and obtains multiple stealing leakage meter users.
2. the method according to claim 1, wherein each user in the selection time under route uses
Electric data carry out prediction and specifically include:
Using electricity consumption data of the ARIMA model prediction user within the selection time.
3. according to the method described in claim 2, it is characterized in that, the electricity sales amount of the described pair of feeder line selected in the time
Data carry out prediction and specifically include:
Using the electricity sales amount data in the selection time of feeder line described in ARIMA model prediction.
4. according to the method described in claim 3, it is characterized in that, described obtain according to electricity consumption difference and the calculating of electricity sales amount difference
Multiple stealings leakage meter users are obtained to specifically include:
It is calculated and is obtained on feeder line in the selection time using the electricity consumption difference that the electricity sales amount difference subtracts all users
Abnormal electricity,
The electricity consumption exception for obtaining each user is calculated divided by the abnormal charge value using the electricity consumption difference of the user
Probability,
It is described different according to the electricity consumption exception joint probability of any number of users of electricity consumption exception probability calculation of each user
Often the corresponding combination user of joint probability maximum value is multiple stealings leakage meter user.
5. according to the method described in claim 4, it is characterized in that, described obtain according to electricity consumption difference and the calculating of electricity sales amount difference
Multiple stealings leakage meter users are obtained to specifically include:
Calculate any number of user power consumption differences and value, described and value and the electricity sales amount difference ratio is obtained,
Corresponding group of the ratio maximum value is combined into the stealing leakage meter user.
6. multi-user's stealing leakage meter screening device under a kind of same feeder line, which is characterized in that described device includes:
Acquiring unit, for obtaining the practical electricity consumption data and the feeder line that select each user in the time under feeder line
Practical electricity sales amount data;
User power consumption difference computational unit, for each user power consumption data in the selection time under route into
Row prediction, obtains the prediction electricity consumption data of each user, obtains each user according to prediction electricity consumption data and practical electricity consumption data
Electricity consumption difference;
Feeder line electricity sales amount difference computational unit carries out pre- for the electricity sales amount data in the selection time to the feeder line
It surveys, obtains the prediction electricity sales amount data of the feeder line, obtain the feedback according to prediction electricity sales amount data and practical electricity sales amount data
The electricity sales amount difference of line;
Stealing leakage meter user's computing unit is used based on multiple stealing leakages by being calculated to obtain according to electricity consumption difference and electricity sales amount difference
Family.
7. device according to claim 6, it is characterised in that: the user power consumption difference computational unit uses ARIMA
Electricity consumption data amount of the model prediction user within the selection time.
8. device according to claim 7, it is characterised in that: the feeder line electricity sales amount difference computational unit uses ARIMA
Electricity sales amount data in the selection time of feeder line described in model prediction.
9. device according to claim 8, which is characterized in that stealing leakage meter user's computing unit specifically includes:
Abnormal electricity computing unit, the electricity consumption difference for being subtracted all users using the electricity sales amount difference, which is calculated, is presented
Abnormal electricity on line in the selection time;
User power consumption exception probability calculation unit is used for the abnormal power energy allocation to each of feeder line user
Electricity consumption data on, calculate obtain each user electricity consumption exception probability;
Electricity consumption exception joint probability calculation unit, for any number of according to the electricity consumption exception probability calculation of each user
The electricity consumption exception joint probability of user, the corresponding combination user of the exception joint probability maximum value is multiple stealings leakage meter use
Family.
10. device according to claim 8, it is characterised in that: stealing leakage meter user's computing unit specifically includes:
With value computing unit, calculate any number of user power consumption differences and value;Ratio computing unit, for calculating
It states and the ratio of value and the electricity sales amount difference;
Comparing unit, for obtaining corresponding combination user according to ratio maximum value, the combination user is stealing leakage meter
User.
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CN113985125A (en) * | 2021-12-29 | 2022-01-28 | 北京志翔科技股份有限公司 | Method, device and equipment for calculating electric quantity with few abnormal current climbing |
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