CN109377437A - Urban Emergency emergency inference pattern based on event chain - Google Patents
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Abstract
The Urban Emergency that the invention discloses a kind of based on event chain is met an urgent need inference pattern, establish event container, the filtering of environmental information funnel, in conjunction with random forests algorithm, operation mechanism rule is derived, emergency event chain Evolution and the driving Emergency decision of Emergency decision, efficiency act on lower emergency event chain Evolution, the driving Emergency decision of resource acts on lower emergency event chain Evolution.Through the above way, the present invention can with solve current such as natural calamity class, accident class, public health event class, the various emergency events in social security events class city changing trend, emergency inference pattern is established, provides Analysis of Policy Making foundation and reference for the analysis of Urban Emergency follow-up decision.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to Urban Emergency emergency reasonings, more particularly to a kind of Urban Emergency based on event chain
Emergency inference pattern.
Background technique
Urban Emergency emergency inference pattern based on event chain is with event chain, event container, environment funnel, case
Reasoning (CBR), random forests algorithm are technical support, and the emergency inference pattern of Urban Emergency is various certainly in reply city
The harm field of the fields emergency events such as right disaster, accident, public health and social safety, has important practical meaning
Justice.
In recent years, various naturalities, public character, social unconventional emergency event, occurrence frequency substantially increase, harm
Degree and coverage are very big, and Chinese government's tradition is with " system of a case three " for core, and " People's Republic of China's emergency event is coped with
Method " it is foundation, the emergency disposal of all kinds of emergency events is carried out, during actual, is gradually exposed in Urban Emergency
The operation rule of development, the problem that changing trend etc. is insufficient.Current governmental solution of emergent event, Analysis of Policy Making system exist
Following problems:
(1) lack the structural description frame for being directed to emergency event, in the case where meeting with emergency event, it is difficult to extract thing
Part information, to provide reference for managerial decision analysis and subsequent formulation Disposal Measures；
(2) less to the operation mechanism consideration of emergency event, after emergency event occurs, if other events can be triggered,
The shortages such as other secondary, derivative events are unified to be considered and analyzes；
(3) lack the event acquisition to existing Urban Emergency case, event container modeling and inference rule algorithm, do not have
There is reasonable classification, it is difficult to which effectively service is retrieved previous case, reused and reasoning；
(4) the chain reply model of emergency event is single, the effect in event chain between each event content portion element and between event
Relationship, network structure are unintelligible.
(5) emergency event Emergency decision.
Summary of the invention
The Urban Emergency that the invention mainly solves the technical problem of providing a kind of based on event chain is met an urgent need reasoning mould
Type, it is various to solve current such as natural calamity class, accident class, public health event class, social security events class city
The changing trend of emergency event, by establishing event container, the filtering of environmental information funnel derives fortune in conjunction with random forests algorithm
Row mechanism rule establishes emergency inference pattern, provides Analysis of Policy Making foundation and reference for the analysis of Urban Emergency follow-up decision.
In order to solve the above technical problems, one technical scheme adopted by the invention is that providing a kind of city based on event chain
Emergency event emergency inference pattern；Include:
Event chain and inference pattern ontology, wherein event chain includes all kinds of Urban Emergencies, and emergency event includes primary
Event, secondary event, derived events；
The primary event, for supporting body for the first time caused by destroy and the incident of injury, according to event itself occur, development
Overall process intuitively makes quantitative analysis to event consequence or event influence；
The secondary event, the event generated to occur with primary event, or certain is developed in primary event
Degree and the event generated；
The derived events, to lead to the productions such as social production, economic activity, form of life quilt by primary event
Compel the event paused, up to ultimately forming harmfulness consequence；
The inference pattern ontology is used for based on past emergency event, by finding and adjusting answering for similar cases
Quick-acting prescription case is come the solution for the kainogenesis event that achieves a solution.
Preferably, the inference pattern ontology includes event container, which influences all kinds of emergency event peripheries
Factor is modeled, and various external factors, internal association are analyzed in filtering.
Preferably, inference pattern ontology includes surrounding enviroment Leaky Bucket algorithm, and surrounding enviroment Leaky Bucket algorithm is to all kinds of burst things
Part periphery influence factor is modeled, is filtered, and various external factors, internal association are analyzed, and passes through element of time, Space Elements structure
Build " scene-reply " mode.
Preferably, inference pattern ontology includes random forests algorithm, and random forests algorithm excavates emergency event category attribute
Common characteristic extracts graded index, realizes classification learning by Random Forest model by training sample, obtains emergency event
Classification results.
Preferably, inference pattern ontology includes reasoning by cases module, and reasoning by cases module includes the expression of case, case
Reuse strategy, the adjustable strategies of case, case study and the case maintemance of search strategy, case；
Wherein, case representation is described for case, attribute normalization, by the case retrieval algorithm based on preference information,
Improve searching algorithm and retrieval confidence level；
The case reuses, including the various emergency of emergency event have occurred for the realizations such as case similarity calculates, case matching
The reuse of decision information；
The adjustable strategies of the case, reuse according to case and the peculiar information collection of emergency event, adjust automatically are current
The applicable case of emergency event.
It preferably, further include that emergency event chain Evolution and the driving Emergency decision of Emergency decision relationship, efficiency act on
The driving Emergency decision of lower emergency event chain Evolution, resource acts on lower emergency event chain Evolution.
The beneficial effects of the present invention are: all kinds of emergency events in city can be carried out with Science modeling, building event chain is drilled
The kinetic factor of change, understand primary event is secondary with regard to its, derived events be it is interrelated in which way, promote emergency event and answer
The science of anxious decision, the decision made in the shortest possible time for policymaker with a definite target in view provide possibility.By random
Rank of the forest algorithm quickly to identify emergency event, and then on the basis of defining emergency event itself rank, it is promoted prominent
The validity of hair event quick response and emergency.Rescue mode is answered compared to existing emergency event, the present invention provides emergency management and rescue
Inference pattern existing relationship between event chain Evolution and Emergency decision is modeled, and integrate set emergency preplan and
The Occurred situations of emergency event, implement rapidly emergency plan, and the process values of crucial control object is made to be less than controlling value, to its key
Object carries out Emergency decision, and the state of affairs is avoided further to deteriorate, and reduces the event bring extent of injury to greatest extent.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is event chain structuring block schematic illustration of the present invention；
Fig. 2 is the emergency event hierarchy model decomposition diagram based on random forest；
Fig. 3 is reasoning by cases (CBR) workflow schematic diagram；
Fig. 4 is emergency inference pattern frame diagram.
Specific embodiment
The preferred embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawing, so that advantages and features of the invention energy
It is easier to be readily appreciated by one skilled in the art, so as to make a clearer definition of the protection scope of the present invention.
As shown in Fig. 1 and Fig. 4, in embodiments of the present invention, event chain structuring frame is secondary with it according to emergency event,
Logical relation existing for derived events defines the evolutionary pattern for understanding emergency event, and is straight chain formula, diverging by its summary and induction
Formula, centralization and circulating four kinds of evolutionary patterns exist between the sequencing and event that event chain occurs according to event
Triggering relationship.
Event container provides a kind of mechanism, by it to each mainly to the factor that may cause emergency event generation
Class emergency event periphery influence factor, is modeled, filtering, analyzes various external factors, and internal association acts on emergency event
It is summarized as the effect or its coupling of substance, energy or information.
Surrounding enviroment Leaky Bucket algorithm provides a kind of mechanism, by it to all kinds of emergency event peripheries influence factor, carries out
Various external factors are analyzed in modeling, filtering, and internal association is constructed by element of time, Space Elements, objective things object etc.
" scene-reply " mode, analyzes the situation of current emergency event, and then successfully managed.
Incorporated by reference to shown in Fig. 2, random forest is a kind of assembled classifier, it can tolerate exceptional value and noise well, and
It is not easy overfitting occur, single classifier is higher than in nicety of grading.Based on the shared characteristic of emergency event, such as event
Matter, severity and coverage etc., attribute training set needed for forming random forest prediction, are established according to event category attribute
The classification of emergency event.
Incorporated by reference to shown in Fig. 3, reasoning by cases (CBR) passes through the expression of case, the reuse of the search strategy of case, case
Strategy, the adjustable strategies of case, case study and case maintemance improve inspection by the case retrieval algorithm based on preference information
Rope algorithm and retrieval confidence level, reuses according to case and the peculiar information collection of emergency event, adjust automatically currently happen suddenly
The applicable case of event.
The above description is only an embodiment of the present invention, is not intended to limit the scope of the invention, all to utilize this hair
Equivalent structure or equivalent flow shift made by bright specification and accompanying drawing content is applied directly or indirectly in other relevant skills
Art field, is included within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (6)
- The inference pattern 1. a kind of Urban Emergency based on event chain is met an urgent need characterized by comprisingEvent chain and inference pattern ontology, wherein event chain include all kinds of Urban Emergencies, emergency event include primary event, Secondary event, derived events；The primary event, for supporting body for the first time caused by destroy and the incident of injury, occurred according to event itself, develop full mistake Journey intuitively makes quantitative analysis to event consequence or event influence；The secondary event, the event generated to occur with primary event, or be developed to a certain degree in primary event And the event generated；The derived events, to cause the productions such as social production, economic activity, form of life to be forced to stop by primary event Pause, until ultimately forming the event of harmfulness consequence；The inference pattern ontology answers quick-acting prescription by find and adjust similar cases for based on past emergency event Case is come the solution for the kainogenesis event that achieves a solution.
- The inference pattern 2. Urban Emergency according to claim 1 based on event chain is met an urgent need, it is characterised in that described Inference pattern ontology includes event container, which models all kinds of emergency event peripheries influence factor, filtering, Analyze various external factors, internal association.
- The inference pattern 3. Urban Emergency according to claim 1 based on event chain is met an urgent need, it is characterised in that: reasoning Model ontology includes surrounding enviroment Leaky Bucket algorithm, and surrounding enviroment Leaky Bucket algorithm builds all kinds of emergency event peripheries influence factor Mould, filtering analyze various external factors, internal association, construct " scene-reply " mode by element of time, Space Elements.
- The inference pattern 4. Urban Emergency according to claim 1 based on event chain is met an urgent need, it is characterised in that: reasoning Model ontology includes random forests algorithm, and random forests algorithm excavates emergency event category attribute common characteristic, extracts classification and refers to Mark realizes classification learning, obtains emergency event classification results by training sample by Random Forest model.
- The inference pattern 5. Urban Emergency according to claim 1 based on event chain is met an urgent need, it is characterised in that: reasoning Model ontology includes reasoning by cases module, and reasoning by cases module includes the reuse of the expression of case, the search strategy of case, case Strategy, the adjustable strategies of case, case study and case maintemance；Wherein, case representation is described for case, and attribute normalization is improved by the case retrieval algorithm based on preference information Searching algorithm and retrieval confidence level；The case reuses, including the various Emergency decisions of emergency event have occurred for the realizations such as case similarity calculates, case matching The reuse of information；The adjustable strategies of the case, reuse according to case and the peculiar information collection of emergency event, adjust automatically currently happen suddenly The applicable case of event.
- The inference pattern 6. Urban Emergency according to any one of claims 1 to 4 based on event chain is met an urgent need, feature It is: further include: emergency event chain Evolution and the driving Emergency decision of Emergency decision relationship, efficiency act on lower emergency event The driving Emergency decision of chain Evolution, resource acts on lower emergency event chain Evolution.
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Cited By (11)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN110196639A (en) * | 2019-05-31 | 2019-09-03 | 青岛海科虚拟现实研究院 | A kind of submarine damage chain disaster simulation method of pipe VR training system |
| CN111784060A (en) * | 2020-07-07 | 2020-10-16 | 中国人民公安大学 | Urban community social security chain coupling risk evolution scenario conjecture method |
| CN111797230A (en) * | 2020-06-11 | 2020-10-20 | 南京擎盾信息科技有限公司 | Legal three-layer theory automatic reasoning method and device and electronic equipment |
| CN111798355A (en) * | 2020-07-01 | 2020-10-20 | 北京大学 | Urban public security event chain formalized organization method and event chain database |
| CN112330004A (en) * | 2020-10-27 | 2021-02-05 | 合肥泽众城市智能科技有限公司 | Urban gas leakage emergency deduction method and system based on event chain |
| CN112365078A (en) * | 2020-11-23 | 2021-02-12 | 南京莱斯信息技术股份有限公司 | Multi-disaster-species coupling and secondary derivative evolution prediction system based on disaster chain |
| CN112613645A (en) * | 2020-12-07 | 2021-04-06 | 国网山东省电力公司应急管理中心 | Power grid emergency multi-source situation element dynamic factor logic coupling driving method |
| CN113449108A (en) * | 2021-06-30 | 2021-09-28 | 南京理工大学 | Financial news stream burst detection method based on hierarchical clustering |
| CN113822546A (en) * | 2021-09-01 | 2021-12-21 | 上海智眭科技有限公司 | Automatic plan management system and management method thereof |
| CN114580980A (en) * | 2022-05-07 | 2022-06-03 | 华北科技学院(中国煤矿安全技术培训中心) | Dynamic updating plan system and method for urban community space emergency response |
| CN116228496A (en) * | 2023-03-28 | 2023-06-06 | 深圳富联富桂精密工业有限公司 | Emergency plan generation method and related equipment |
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Cited By (18)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN110196639A (en) * | 2019-05-31 | 2019-09-03 | 青岛海科虚拟现实研究院 | A kind of submarine damage chain disaster simulation method of pipe VR training system |
| CN111797230A (en) * | 2020-06-11 | 2020-10-20 | 南京擎盾信息科技有限公司 | Legal three-layer theory automatic reasoning method and device and electronic equipment |
| CN111797230B (en) * | 2020-06-11 | 2021-07-13 | 南京擎盾信息科技有限公司 | Legal three-layer theory automatic reasoning method and device and electronic equipment |
| CN111798355B (en) * | 2020-07-01 | 2022-10-11 | 北京大学 | Urban public security event chain formalized organization method and event chain database |
| CN111798355A (en) * | 2020-07-01 | 2020-10-20 | 北京大学 | Urban public security event chain formalized organization method and event chain database |
| CN111784060A (en) * | 2020-07-07 | 2020-10-16 | 中国人民公安大学 | Urban community social security chain coupling risk evolution scenario conjecture method |
| CN112330004A (en) * | 2020-10-27 | 2021-02-05 | 合肥泽众城市智能科技有限公司 | Urban gas leakage emergency deduction method and system based on event chain |
| CN112330004B (en) * | 2020-10-27 | 2022-02-11 | 合肥泽众城市智能科技有限公司 | Urban gas leakage emergency deduction method and system based on event chain |
| CN112365078A (en) * | 2020-11-23 | 2021-02-12 | 南京莱斯信息技术股份有限公司 | Multi-disaster-species coupling and secondary derivative evolution prediction system based on disaster chain |
| CN112613645A (en) * | 2020-12-07 | 2021-04-06 | 国网山东省电力公司应急管理中心 | Power grid emergency multi-source situation element dynamic factor logic coupling driving method |
| CN112613645B (en) * | 2020-12-07 | 2023-06-09 | 国网山东省电力公司应急管理中心 | Power grid emergency multisource scenario element dynamic and dynamic logic coupling driving method |
| CN113449108A (en) * | 2021-06-30 | 2021-09-28 | 南京理工大学 | Financial news stream burst detection method based on hierarchical clustering |
| CN113449108B (en) * | 2021-06-30 | 2022-10-21 | 南京理工大学 | Financial news stream burst detection method based on hierarchical clustering |
| CN113822546A (en) * | 2021-09-01 | 2021-12-21 | 上海智眭科技有限公司 | Automatic plan management system and management method thereof |
| CN114580980B (en) * | 2022-05-07 | 2022-07-22 | 华北科技学院(中国煤矿安全技术培训中心) | Dynamic updating plan system and method for urban community space emergency response |
| CN114580980A (en) * | 2022-05-07 | 2022-06-03 | 华北科技学院(中国煤矿安全技术培训中心) | Dynamic updating plan system and method for urban community space emergency response |
| CN116228496A (en) * | 2023-03-28 | 2023-06-06 | 深圳富联富桂精密工业有限公司 | Emergency plan generation method and related equipment |
| CN116228496B (en) * | 2023-03-28 | 2023-08-04 | 深圳富联富桂精密工业有限公司 | Emergency plan generation method and related equipment |
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