CN109061649A - A kind of hail monitoring method and system - Google Patents
A kind of hail monitoring method and system Download PDFInfo
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- CN109061649A CN109061649A CN201810906808.4A CN201810906808A CN109061649A CN 109061649 A CN109061649 A CN 109061649A CN 201810906808 A CN201810906808 A CN 201810906808A CN 109061649 A CN109061649 A CN 109061649A
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- G—PHYSICS
- G01—MEASURING; TESTING
- G01S—RADIO DIRECTION-FINDING; RADIO NAVIGATION; DETERMINING DISTANCE OR VELOCITY BY USE OF RADIO WAVES; LOCATING OR PRESENCE-DETECTING BY USE OF THE REFLECTION OR RERADIATION OF RADIO WAVES; ANALOGOUS ARRANGEMENTS USING OTHER WAVES
- G01S13/00—Systems using the reflection or reradiation of radio waves, e.g. radar systems; Analogous systems using reflection or reradiation of waves whose nature or wavelength is irrelevant or unspecified
- G01S13/88—Radar or analogous systems specially adapted for specific applications
- G01S13/95—Radar or analogous systems specially adapted for specific applications for meteorological use
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A90/00—Technologies having an indirect contribution to adaptation to climate change
- Y02A90/10—Information and communication technologies [ICT] supporting adaptation to climate change, e.g. for weather forecasting or climate simulation
Abstract
The present invention relates to a kind of hail monitoring method and systems, wherein hail monitoring method is the following steps are included: the three-dimensional stereo data that the radar network composite picture mosaic for obtaining target area obtains；Obtain the aerological sounding data of target area；Hail index is calculated according to three-dimensional stereo data and aerological sounding data；Hail probability and size are confirmed according to hail index.In the inventive solutions, the three-dimensional stereo data generated using China New Generation weather radar monitoring net real-time detection data mosaic, while incorporating the realization of aerological sounding Data Design.The lattice points product such as hail Monitoring Index, probability and diameter of 1km*1km resolution ratio can be provided in real time.Can monitor accurately and in time hail weather generation, development, for it is short face hail weather early warning, forecast data supporting is provided；It is simultaneously the Investigating of hail weather, assessment provides objective reference.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to meteorological data monitoring management field more particularly to a kind of hail monitoring methods, are related to a kind of hail
Monitoring system.
Background technique
Traditional hail recognition methods is mainly the weather forecast of meteorological department, mainly according to Doppler radar number
According to analyze strong convective weathers, this methods such as the statistical nature identification hail of radar return is influenced by radar, is easy
Appearance is made a false report and is failed to report, and hail and this strong convection extreme weather of heavy rain are also difficult to effectively be identified, in practice, existing
In place of hail identification technology comes with some shortcomings, if the degree of automation is not high, forecaster's heavy workload；False alert rate, rate of failing to report compared with
It is high；Spatial and temporal resolution is lower.
Summary of the invention
The present invention is directed to solve at least one of the technical problems existing in the prior art or related technologies.
For this purpose, ice can be monitored accurately and in time it is an object of the present invention to provide a kind of hail monitoring method
The generation of hail weather, development face hail weather early warning, forecast to provide data supporting to be short.
It is another object of the present invention to provide a kind of hails to monitor system, can monitor hail accurately and in time
The generation of weather, development face hail weather early warning, forecast to provide data supporting to be short.
To achieve the above object, the technical solution of first aspect present invention provides a kind of hail monitoring method, including with
Lower step: the three-dimensional stereo data that the radar network composite picture mosaic of target area obtains is obtained；Obtain the aerological sounding number of target area
According to；Hail index is calculated according to three-dimensional stereo data and aerological sounding data；According to hail index confirm hail probability and
Size.
In the technical scheme, it is generated using China New Generation weather radar monitoring net real-time detection data mosaic
Three-dimensional stereo data, while incorporating the realization of aerological sounding Data Design.The hail monitoring that 1km*1km resolution ratio can be provided in real time refers to
The lattice points products such as number, probability and diameter.Generation, the development that hail weather can be monitored accurately and in time, face hail day to be short
Gas early warning, forecast provide data supporting；It is simultaneously the Investigating of hail weather, assessment provides objective reference.
In the above-mentioned technical solutions, it is preferable that confirm that hail probability includes: to obtain going through for target area according to hail index
History hail data form hail sample；Hail index and hail sample are judged and obtain judging result；It is tied according to judgement
Fruit calculates hail probability.
In the technical scheme, by confirming the probability of hail, it can effectively assess and hail that checking computation obtains refers to
Several accuracys, for it is short face hail weather early warning, forecast data supporting is provided；It is simultaneously the Investigating of hail weather, assessment
Objective reference is provided.
In any of the above-described technical solution, it is preferable that hail probability includes: critical success index CSI, CSI=X/ (X+Y+
Z), wherein X is that hail sample is to have hail and hail index is the number for monitoring Hail cell；Y is that hail sample is to have
Hail and hail index are the number for not monitoring Hail cell；Z is that hail sample is no hail and hail index is monitoring
To the number of Hail cell；And/or hit rate POD, POD=X/ (X+Y)；And/or rate of false alarm FAR, FAR=Z/ (X+Z).
In the technical scheme, hail probability includes the parameters such as critical success index above-mentioned, hit rate, by using mesh
Mark has the hail of record to record to form hail shooting sample as reference data in region, verifies to calculated hail index,
To confirm the probability of hail, and then faces hail weather early warning to be short, forecasts to provide data supporting；It is simultaneously the calamity of hail weather
Sentiment is looked into, assesses the objective reference of offer.
In any of the above-described technical solution, it is preferable that confirm that hail size includes: according to hail sample according to hail index
Detect the diameter of hail；Model is established according to the diameter of hail index and hail；The size of hail is calculated according to model.
In the technical scheme, by confirming that the dimension data of hail, i.e., the diameter of maximum hail face hail weather to be short
Early warning, forecast provide data supporting；And objective reference is provided for the prevention of target area, the Investigating of hail weather, assessment.
In any of the above-described technical solution, it is preferable that ice is calculated according to three-dimensional stereo data and aerological sounding data
Hail index, specific formula are as follows:
Using the relationship of reflectivity factor and hail, by reflectivity factor data conversion at the amount of flux E of hail kinetic energy:
E=5 × 10-6×100.084ZW(Z)；
Wherein, Z is reflectance value, ZLFor reflectivity lower limit value, ZUFor upper limit value.W (Z) is Weighting Functions Definitions rain and ice
The transition zone of hail reflectivity factor；
Temperature weighting function W is calculated according to three-dimensional stereo data and aerological sounding dataT(H)；
The calculation formula of hail index SHI are as follows:
H0For the height of 0 degree of layer, Hm20For the height of -20 degree layers, H is the height of target area；
Wherein, when the height of target area is less than or equal to the height of 0 degree of layer, temperature weighting function WTIt (H) is 0；
When the height of target area is greater than the height of 0 degree of layer, spends the height of layers less than -20, temperature weighting function WT(H) it is
When the height of target area is greater than or equal to the height of -20 degree layers, temperature weighting function WTIt (H) is 1；
The height H of target area is 1-16km.
In the technical scheme, it is generated using China New Generation weather radar monitoring net real-time detection data mosaic
Three-dimensional stereo data, while incorporating the realization of aerological sounding design data.Can provide in real time 1km*1km resolution ratio hail index,
The lattice points product such as probability and diameter.Generation, the development that hail weather can be monitored accurately and in time, face hail weather to be short
Early warning, forecast provide data supporting；It is simultaneously the Investigating of hail weather, assessment provides objective reference.
The technical solution of second aspect of the present invention provides a kind of hail monitoring system, comprising: first acquisition unit is used for
Obtain the three-dimensional stereo data that the radar network composite picture mosaic of target area obtains；Second acquisition unit, for obtaining target area
Aerological sounding data；First control unit, for hail index to be calculated according to three-dimensional stereo data and aerological sounding data；
Second control unit, for confirming hail probability and size according to hail index.
In the technical scheme, it is generated using China New Generation weather radar monitoring net real-time detection data mosaic
Three-dimensional stereo data, while incorporating the realization of aerological sounding Data Design.The hail monitoring that 1km*1km resolution ratio can be provided in real time refers to
The lattice points products such as number, probability and diameter.Generation, the development that hail weather can be monitored accurately and in time, face hail day to be short
Gas early warning, forecast provide data supporting；It is simultaneously the Investigating of hail weather, assessment provides objective reference.
In the above-mentioned technical solutions, it is preferable that the second control unit includes: acquisition module, for obtaining target area
History hail data form hail sample；Judgment module, for being judged and being judged hail index with hail sample
As a result；First control module, for calculating hail probability according to judging result.
In the technical scheme, by confirming the probability of hail, it can effectively assess and hail that checking computation obtains refers to
Several accuracys, for it is short face hail weather early warning, forecast data supporting is provided；It is simultaneously the Investigating of hail weather, assessment
Objective reference is provided.
In any of the above-described technical solution, it is preferable that hail probability includes: critical success index CSI, CSI=X/ (X+Y+
Z), wherein X is that hail sample is to have hail and hail index is the number for monitoring Hail cell；Y is that hail sample is to have
Hail and hail index are the number for not monitoring Hail cell；Z is that hail sample is no hail and hail index is monitoring
To the number of Hail cell；And/or hit rate POD, POD=X/ (X+Y)；And/or rate of false alarm FAR, FAR=Z/ (X+Z).
In the technical scheme, hail probability includes the parameters such as critical success index above-mentioned, hit rate, by using mesh
Mark has the hail of record to record to form hail shooting sample as reference data in region, verifies to calculated hail index,
To confirm the probability of hail, and then faces hail weather early warning to be short, forecasts to provide data supporting；It is simultaneously the calamity of hail weather
Sentiment is looked into, assesses the objective reference of offer.
In any of the above-described technical solution, it is preferable that the second control unit further include: detection module, for according to hail
The diameter of pattern detection hail；Module is established, for establishing model according to the diameter of hail index and hail；Second control mould
Block, for calculating the size of hail according to model.
In the technical scheme, by confirming that the dimension data of hail, i.e., the diameter of maximum hail face hail weather to be short
Early warning, forecast provide data supporting；And objective reference is provided for the prevention of target area, the Investigating of hail weather, assessment.
In any of the above-described technical solution, it is preferable that the specific formula of hail index are as follows:
Using the relationship of reflectivity factor and hail, by reflectivity factor data conversion at the amount of flux E of hail kinetic energy:
E=5 × 10-6×100.084ZW(Z)；
Wherein, Z is reflectance value, ZLFor reflectivity lower limit value, ZUFor upper limit value.W (Z) is Weighting Functions Definitions rain and ice
The transition zone of hail reflectivity factor；
Temperature weighting function W is calculated according to three-dimensional stereo data and aerological sounding dataT(H)；
The calculation formula of hail index SHI are as follows:
H0For the height of 0 degree of layer, Hm20For the height of -20 degree layers, H is the height of target area；
Wherein, when the height of target area is less than or equal to the height of 0 degree of layer, temperature weighting function WTIt (H) is 0；
When the height of target area is greater than the height of 0 degree of layer, spends the height of layers less than -20, temperature weighting function WT(H) it is
When the height of target area is greater than or equal to the height of -20 degree layers, temperature weighting function WTIt (H) is 1；
The height H of target area is 1-16km.
In the technical scheme, it is generated using China New Generation weather radar monitoring net real-time detection data mosaic
Three-dimensional stereo data, while incorporating the realization of aerological sounding design data.Can provide in real time 1km*1km resolution ratio hail index,
The lattice points product such as probability and diameter.Generation, the development that hail weather can be monitored accurately and in time, face hail weather to be short
Early warning, forecast provide data supporting；It is simultaneously the Investigating of hail weather, assessment provides objective reference.
Detailed description of the invention
Above-mentioned and/or additional aspect of the invention and advantage will become from the description of the embodiment in conjunction with the following figures
Obviously and it is readily appreciated that, in which:
Fig. 1 shows the flow diagram of hail monitoring method involved in one embodiment of the present of invention；
Fig. 2 shows the flow diagrams of hail monitoring method involved in another embodiment of the invention；
Fig. 3 shows the flow diagram of hail monitoring method involved in yet another embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 4 shows the structural block diagram of the monitoring system of hail involved in one embodiment of the present of invention；
Fig. 5 shows the structural block diagram of the monitoring system of hail involved in another embodiment of the invention；
Fig. 6 shows the structural block diagram of the monitoring system of hail involved in yet another embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 7 shows the illustraton of model of the diameter of hail index and hail involved in the embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 8 shows the distribution statistics figure of hail index involved in the embodiment of the present invention；
Wherein, the corresponding relationship in fig. 4 to fig. 6 between appended drawing reference and component names are as follows:
1000 hails monitoring system, 100 first acquisition units, 200 second acquisition units, 300 first control units, 400
Second control unit, 402 obtain module, and 404 judgment modules, 406 first control modules, 408 detection modules, 410 establish module,
412 second control modules.
Specific embodiment
To better understand the objects, features and advantages of the present invention, with reference to the accompanying drawing and specific real
Applying mode, the present invention is further described in detail.It should be noted that in the absence of conflict, the implementation of the application
Feature in example and embodiment can be combined with each other.
In the following description, numerous specific details are set forth in order to facilitate a full understanding of the present invention, still, the present invention may be used also
To be implemented using other than the one described here other modes, therefore, protection scope of the present invention is not limited to following public affairs
The limitation for the specific embodiment opened.
Referring to the hail monitoring method and its system of Fig. 1 to Fig. 8 description according to some embodiments of the invention.
As shown in Figure 1, according to the hail monitoring method of one embodiment of the invention, comprising the following steps:
S100 obtains the three-dimensional stereo data that the radar network composite picture mosaic of target area obtains；
S200 obtains the aerological sounding data of target area；
Hail index is calculated according to three-dimensional stereo data and aerological sounding data in S300；
S400 confirms hail probability and size according to hail index.
In this embodiment, three generated using China New Generation weather radar monitoring net real-time detection data mosaic
Stereo data is tieed up, while incorporating the realization of aerological sounding Data Design.The hail monitoring that 1km*1km resolution ratio can be provided in real time refers to
The lattice points products such as number, probability and diameter.Generation, the development that hail weather can be monitored accurately and in time, face hail day to be short
Gas early warning, forecast provide data supporting；It is simultaneously the Investigating of hail weather, assessment provides objective reference.
As shown in Fig. 2, confirming that hail is general according to hail index according to the hail monitoring method of another embodiment of the present invention
Rate includes:
S402, the history hail data for obtaining target area form hail sample；
Hail index and hail sample are judged and obtain judging result by S404；
S406 calculates hail probability according to judging result.
In this embodiment, it by confirming the probability of hail, can effectively assess and hail index that checking computation obtains
Accuracy, for it is short face hail weather early warning, forecast data supporting is provided；It is simultaneously the Investigating of hail weather, assessment mentions
For objective reference.
Further, hail probability includes: critical success index CSI, CSI=X/ (X+Y+Z), wherein X is hail sample
To have hail and hail index is the number for monitoring Hail cell；Y is that hail sample is to have hail and hail index for not
Monitor the number of Hail cell；Z is that hail sample is no hail and hail index is the number for monitoring Hail cell；With/
Or hit rate POD, POD=X/ (X+Y)；And/or rate of false alarm FAR, FAR=Z/ (X+Z).
In this embodiment, hail probability includes the parameters such as critical success index above-mentioned, hit rate, by using target
There is the hail of record to record to form hail shooting sample as reference data in region, calculated hail index is verified, from
And confirm the probability of hail, and then for it is short face hail weather early warning, forecast data supporting is provided；It is simultaneously the condition of a disaster of hail weather
Investigation, assessment provide objective reference.
In the present embodiment, in order to detect the validity and accuracy of hail index, made using the hail record for having record
It tests for hail shooting sample.Monomer is identified as hail automatically by hail index > 15.It hits, fail to report, false-alarm is defined as follows:
Hit: it within the scope of the 30km that ground has hail shooting to record, if hail index automatically identifies Hail cell, is considered as
Hit.
It fails to report: within the scope of the 20km that ground has hail shooting to record, if monitoring algorithm fails to automatically identify Hail cell,
It is considered as failing to report.
Wrong report: hail index automatically identifies Hail cell, but ground does not have hail shooting record within the scope of 20km, is considered as
Wrong report.
As shown in figure 3, confirming hail ruler according to hail index according to the hail monitoring method of further embodiment of the present invention
It is very little to include:
S408, according to the diameter of hail pattern detection hail；
S410 establishes model according to the diameter of hail index and hail；
S412 calculates the size of hail according to model.
In this embodiment, by confirming the dimension data of hail, i.e., the diameter of maximum hail, to face hail weather pre- to be short
Alert, forecast provides data supporting；And objective reference is provided for the prevention of target area, the Investigating of hail weather, assessment.
In the present embodiment, hail diameter is estimated using diameter of the hail index to greatest expected hail.Using drop
The maximum hail index that the sample number of day of hail and hail spot monitor establishes the initial of hail index and maximum hail size
Model, as shown in Figure 7.
According to the hail monitoring method of four embodiment of the invention, according to three-dimensional stereo data and aerological sounding data meter
Calculation show that hail index, hail index are that the heating power weight of radar reflectivity profile vertically integrates, specific formula are as follows:
Using the relationship of reflectivity factor and hail, by reflectivity factor data conversion at the amount of flux E of hail kinetic energy:
E=5 × 10-6×100.084ZW(Z)；
Wherein, Z is reflectance value, ZLFor reflectivity lower limit value, ZUFor upper limit value.W (Z) is Weighting Functions Definitions rain and ice
The transition zone of hail reflectivity factor；
Occur since hail increases at < 0 °, heavy hail occurs at < -20 °.Therefore introduce temperature weighting function parameter.It introduces and visits
Empty or other high-altitude data, and be interpolated on mesh point.Then, the corresponding temperature weight of each grid different height is calculated
Function parameter.Temperature weighting function W is calculated according to three-dimensional stereo data and aerological sounding dataT(H)；
The hail flux that three-dimensional stereo data (multi-layer C APPI data) is obtained, carries out vertical integral calculation hail index.
According to hail index, hail probability and hail size are calculated.The calculation formula of hail index SHI are as follows:
H is the height of target area, H0For the height of 0 degree of layer, Hm20For the height of -20 degree layers；The height H of target area
For 1-16km；
Wherein, when the height of target area is less than or equal to the height of 0 degree of layer, temperature weighting function WTIt (H) is 0；
When the height of target area is greater than the height of 0 degree of layer, spends the height of layers less than -20, temperature weighting function WT(H) it is
When the height of target area is greater than or equal to the height of -20 degree layers, temperature weighting function WTIt (H) is 1；
In this embodiment, three generated using China New Generation weather radar monitoring net real-time detection data mosaic
Stereo data is tieed up, while incorporating the realization of aerological sounding design data.The hail index, general of 1km*1km resolution ratio can be provided in real time
The lattice points product such as rate and diameter.Generation, the development of hail weather can be monitored accurately and in time, and to face hail weather pre- to be short
Alert, forecast provides data supporting；It is simultaneously the Investigating of hail weather, assessment provides objective reference.
In the present embodiment, three-dimensional stereo data is weather radar three-dimensional Grid data.Weather radar be meteorological detection and
Research effective tool, Small and Medium Sized diastrous weather monitoring, in terms of play an important role.It
When gas radar collects data in such a way that body is swept again, radar initial data is to be located in the spherical coordinate system centered on radar, therefore,
When needing the data obtained to radar to do comprehensive analysis and be further processed, it is necessary to radar raw data from spherical coordinate system
It is transformed into the cartesian coordinate system of agreement.Using certain interpolation method, the radar raw data interpolation under spherical coordinate system drops
On the three-dimensional lattice point of rule under to cartesian coordinate system, weather radar three-dimensional Grid data is formed.Three-dimensional stereo data includes base
This reflectivity factor product and three-dimensional reflection rate Factor products.
Base reflectivity product is the body total number evidence obtained based on weather radar scanning, according to different distance segment point
A kind of product not being combined using the data of minimum 4 different elevation angle layers.This product is used as always the standard output of radar,
Because forecaster can determine the intensity of echo according to base reflectivity product, identify significant strong storm structure feature with
The Synoptic characters such as sharp side, squall line.
Three-dimensional reflection rate Factor products are by converting and being interpolated into three-dimensional space for the polar data of different height radar detection
Between obtain on lattice point, wherein needing to consider the refraction effect of earth curvature and electromagnetic wave in an atmosphere.Three-dimensional reflection rate factor pair
The structure (such as analysis to bounded weak echo zone structure feature) and its development and change for disclosing severe convective cloud body play very
Important role, furthermore three-dimensional reflection rate Factor products can also logarithm weather forecast mode provide significant data, improve mode
Accuracy of the forecast.
Three-dimensional reflection rate factor algorithm module includes that newly-built, the perfect and businessization of interpolation algorithm is integrated.
Aerological sounding data are that the souding upper-air observation of aerological sounding abbreviation, also known as aerological are generally called in the detection of free atmosphere
It learns (Aerology).
Atmosphere is the substance for being enclosed in earth appearance, the various physical phenomenons and process occurred in entire atmosphere, all directly
It connects or has close relationship with mankind's activity indirectly, so we must be understood with various instruments, study earth atmosphere
Various characteristics.Aerology is a science of experiment, the various physical phenomenons that research freedom atmosphere is occurred and process.
Mainly have the research of aerological sounding method (i.e. various instruments), wind, pressure, density, temperature, humidity of upper atmosphere etc. with
The regularity of distribution of height and variation with latitude and season, the macro-and micro-structure and Precipitation Process of cloud, changes in temperature sharp side, squall
Line, the observation and research of weather systems height soldier's structure such as typhoon.The temperature of upper atmosphere, air pressure, humidity, wind direction, wind speed are to grind
Study carefully atmosphere heating power and dynamic process, the basic data for carrying out weather analysis and forecasting.The approach for obtaining these data has balloon spy
The means such as survey, rocket sounding, Ground-based remote sensing, satellite remote sensing.
As shown in figure 4, the hail according to one embodiment of the invention monitors system 1000, comprising: first acquisition unit
100, the three-dimensional stereo data that the radar network composite picture mosaic for obtaining target area obtains；Second acquisition unit 200, for obtaining
The aerological sounding data of target area；First control unit 300, for being calculated according to three-dimensional stereo data and aerological sounding data
Obtain hail index；Second control unit 400, for confirming hail probability and size according to hail index.
In this embodiment, three generated using China New Generation weather radar monitoring net real-time detection data mosaic
Stereo data is tieed up, while incorporating the realization of aerological sounding Data Design.The hail monitoring that 1km*1km resolution ratio can be provided in real time refers to
The lattice points products such as number, probability and diameter.Generation, the development that hail weather can be monitored accurately and in time, face hail day to be short
Gas early warning, forecast provide data supporting；It is simultaneously the Investigating of hail weather, assessment provides objective reference.
As shown in figure 5, monitoring system 1000, the second control unit 400 packet according to the hail of another embodiment of the present invention
It includes: obtaining module 402, the history hail data for obtaining target area form hail sample；Judgment module 404, being used for will
Hail index and hail sample are judged and obtain judging result；First control module 406, for being calculated according to judging result
Hail probability.
In this embodiment, it by confirming the probability of hail, can effectively assess and hail index that checking computation obtains
Accuracy, for it is short face hail weather early warning, forecast data supporting is provided；It is simultaneously the Investigating of hail weather, assessment mentions
For objective reference.
Further, hail probability includes: critical success index CSI, CSI=X/ (X+Y+Z), wherein X is hail sample
To have hail and hail index is the number for monitoring Hail cell；Y is that hail sample is to have hail and hail index for not
Monitor the number of Hail cell；Z is that hail sample is no hail and hail index is the number for monitoring Hail cell；With/
Or hit rate POD, POD=X/ (X+Y)；And/or rate of false alarm FAR, FAR=Z/ (X+Z).
In this embodiment, hail probability includes the parameters such as critical success index above-mentioned, hit rate, by using target
There is the hail of record to record to form hail shooting sample as reference data in region, calculated hail index is verified, from
And confirm the probability of hail, and then for it is short face hail weather early warning, forecast data supporting is provided；It is simultaneously the condition of a disaster of hail weather
Investigation, assessment provide objective reference.
As shown in fig. 6, monitoring system 1000 according to the hail of further embodiment of the present invention, the second control unit 400 is also
It include: detection module 408, for the diameter according to hail pattern detection hail；Module 410 is established, for according to hail index
Model is established with the diameter of hail；Second control module 412, for calculating the size of hail according to model.
In this embodiment, by confirming the dimension data of hail, i.e., the diameter of maximum hail, to face hail weather pre- to be short
Alert, forecast provides data supporting；And objective reference is provided for the prevention of target area, the Investigating of hail weather, assessment.
System 1000, the specific formula of hail index are monitored according to the hail of four embodiment of the invention are as follows:
Using the relationship of reflectivity factor and hail, by reflectivity factor data conversion at the amount of flux E of hail kinetic energy:
E=5 × 10-6×100.084ZW(Z)；
Wherein, Z is reflectance value, ZLFor reflectivity lower limit value, ZUFor upper limit value.W (Z) is Weighting Functions Definitions rain and ice
The transition zone of hail reflectivity factor；
Temperature weighting function W is calculated according to three-dimensional stereo data and aerological sounding dataT(H)；
The hail flux that three-dimensional stereo data (multi-layer C APPI data) is obtained, carries out vertical integral calculation hail index.
According to hail index, hail probability and hail size are calculated.The calculation formula of hail index SHI are as follows:
H is the height of target area, H0For the height of 0 degree of layer, Hm20For the height of -20 degree layers；
Wherein, when the height of target area is less than or equal to the height of 0 degree of layer, temperature weighting function WTIt (H) is 0；
When the height of target area is greater than the height of 0 degree of layer, spends the height of layers less than -20, temperature weighting function WT(H) it is
When the height of target area is greater than or equal to the height of -20 degree layers, temperature weighting function WTIt (H) is 1；
In this embodiment, three generated using China New Generation weather radar monitoring net real-time detection data mosaic
Stereo data is tieed up, while incorporating the realization of aerological sounding design data.The hail index, general of 1km*1km resolution ratio can be provided in real time
The lattice points product such as rate and diameter.Generation, the development of hail weather can be monitored accurately and in time, and to face hail weather pre- to be short
Alert, forecast provides data supporting；It is simultaneously the Investigating of hail weather, assessment provides objective reference.
In the present embodiment, the height H of target area is 1-16km.
According to the computer equipment of further embodiment of the present invention, computer equipment includes processor, and processor is for holding
It is realized when the computer program stored in line storage as involved in above-mentioned any embodiment the step of hail monitoring method.
According to the computer readable storage medium of further embodiment of the present invention, it is stored thereon with computer program, is calculated
It is realized when machine program is executed by processor as involved in above-mentioned any embodiment the step of hail monitoring method.
Reference example
To 101 hail examples collected by May, -2018 in May, 2017, statistical estimation is carried out.Hail Weather Processes
When, the distribution statistics of hail index such as Fig. 8.
Using different threshold values, to monitoring hail monitoring product forecast score (POD, FAR and CSI).Inspection result is shown:
When selecting hail index 15 as " identification alarm " threshold value, to there is highest CSI value.Wherein, it hits 81 times, fails to report 20
It is secondary, it reports by mistake 35 times.
Hit rate: POD=81/ (81+20) * 100%=80.2%
Rate of false alarm: FAR=35/ (81+35) * 100%=30.2%
Critical success index: CSI=81/ (81+35+20) * 100%=61.8%
The scoring statistical form of table 2
A example
There is hail weather in 15:50 penglai City, shangdong Province on the 28th etc. May in 2018 ground.
Live material: Yantai on the 28th in May Peng Lai, Laizhou, Longkou, Qixia Area bust hail, wherein Penglai district is disaster-stricken
Concentrate on Chaoshui Town and the shop great Xin town, Laizhou area from Zhu by the shop Guo Jia at panel region also suffer from heavy losses (information Lai
From Chinese apple net).Wherein, maximum hail diameter 40mm.
Monitoring result: hail index shows that maximum hail index appears in Peng Lai Chaoshui Town and the shop great Xin town, maximum ice
Hail diameter 43mm, networking CREF and CAPPI reflectogram, display maximum value is more than 65dbZ, shows strong core height up to 7km, echo top
Height is more than 12km.
In the present invention, term " first ", " second ", " third " are only used for the purpose of description, and should not be understood as indicating
Or imply relative importance；Term " multiple " then refers to two or more, unless otherwise restricted clearly.Term " installation ",
The terms such as " connected ", " connection ", " fixation " shall be understood in a broad sense, for example, " connection " may be a fixed connection, being also possible to can
Dismantling connection, or be integrally connected；" connected " can be directly connected, can also be indirectly connected through an intermediary.For this
For the those of ordinary skill in field, the specific meanings of the above terms in the present invention can be understood according to specific conditions.
In description of the invention, it is to be understood that the instructions such as term " on ", "lower", "left", "right", "front", "rear"
Orientation or positional relationship is to be based on the orientation or positional relationship shown in the drawings, and is merely for convenience of the description present invention and simplification is retouched
It states, rather than the device or unit of indication or suggestion meaning must have specific direction, be constructed and operated in a specific orientation,
It is thus impossible to be interpreted as limitation of the present invention.
In the description of this specification, the description of term " one embodiment ", " some embodiments ", " specific embodiment " etc.
Mean that particular features, structures, materials, or characteristics described in conjunction with this embodiment or example are contained at least one reality of the invention
It applies in example or example.In the present specification, schematic expression of the above terms are not necessarily referring to identical embodiment or reality
Example.Moreover, description particular features, structures, materials, or characteristics can in any one or more of the embodiments or examples with
Suitable mode combines.
The foregoing is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, is not intended to restrict the invention, for the skill of this field
For art personnel, the invention may be variously modified and varied.All within the spirits and principles of the present invention, made any to repair
Change, equivalent replacement, improvement etc., should all be included in the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of hail monitoring method, which comprises the following steps:
Obtain the three-dimensional stereo data that the radar network composite picture mosaic of target area obtains；
Obtain the aerological sounding data of target area；
Hail index is calculated according to the three-dimensional stereo data and the aerological sounding data；
Hail probability and size are confirmed according to the hail index.
2. hail monitoring method according to claim 1, which is characterized in that confirm hail probability according to the hail index
Include:
The history hail data for obtaining target area form hail sample；
The hail index and the hail sample are judged and obtain judging result；
The hail probability is calculated according to the judging result.
3. hail monitoring method according to claim 2, which is characterized in that the hail probability includes:
Critical success index CSI, CSI=X/ (X+Y+Z), wherein X is that the hail sample is to have hail and the hail refers to
Number is the number for monitoring Hail cell；Y is that the hail sample is to have hail and the hail index not monitor hail
The number of monomer；Z is that the hail sample is no hail and the hail index is the number for monitoring Hail cell；
And/or hit rate POD, POD=X/ (X+Y)；
And/or rate of false alarm FAR, FAR=Z/ (X+Z).
4. hail monitoring method according to claim 2, which is characterized in that confirm hail size according to the hail index
Include:
According to the diameter of the hail pattern detection hail；
Model is established according to the diameter of the hail index and the hail；
The size of hail is calculated according to the model.
5. hail monitoring method according to any one of claim 1 to 4, which is characterized in that according to the 3 D stereo
Hail index, specific formula is calculated in data and the aerological sounding data are as follows:
Using the relationship of reflectivity factor and hail, by reflectivity factor data conversion at the amount of flux E of hail kinetic energy:
E=5 × 10-6×100.084ZW(Z)；
Wherein, Z is reflectance value, ZLFor reflectivity lower limit value, ZUFor upper limit value.W (Z) is that Weighting Functions Definitions rain and hail are anti-
Penetrate the transition zone of the rate factor；
Temperature weighting function W is calculated according to the three-dimensional stereo data and the aerological sounding dataT(H)；
The calculation formula of the hail index SHI are as follows:
H0For the height of 0 degree of layer, Hm20For the height of -20 degree layers, H is the height of the target area；
Wherein, when the height of the target area is less than or equal to the height of 0 degree of layer, temperature weighting function WTIt (H) is 0；
When the height of the target area is greater than the height of 0 degree of layer, spends the height of layers less than -20, temperature weighting function WT(H) it is
When the height of the target area is greater than or equal to the height of -20 degree layers, temperature weighting function WTIt (H) is 1；
The height H of the target area is 1-16km.
6. a kind of hail monitors system characterized by comprising
First acquisition unit, the three-dimensional stereo data that the radar network composite picture mosaic for obtaining target area obtains；
Second acquisition unit, for obtaining the aerological sounding data of target area；
First control unit, for hail index to be calculated according to the three-dimensional stereo data and the aerological sounding data；
Second control unit, for confirming hail probability and size according to the hail index.
7. hail according to claim 6 monitors system, which is characterized in that second control unit includes:
Module is obtained, the history hail data for obtaining target area form hail sample；
Judgment module, for being judged the hail index and the hail sample and obtaining judging result；
First control module, for calculating the hail probability according to the judging result.
8. hail according to claim 7 monitors system, which is characterized in that the hail probability includes:
Critical success index CSI, CSI=X/ (X+Y+Z), wherein X is that the hail sample is to have hail and the hail refers to
Number is the number for monitoring Hail cell；Y is that the hail sample is to have hail and the hail index not monitor hail
The number of monomer；Z is that the hail sample is no hail and the hail index is the number for monitoring Hail cell；
And/or hit rate POD, POD=X/ (X+Y)；
And/or rate of false alarm FAR, FAR=Z/ (X+Z).
9. hail according to claim 7 monitors system, which is characterized in that second control unit further include:
Detection module, for the diameter according to the hail pattern detection hail；
Module is established, for establishing model according to the diameter of the hail index and the hail；
Second control module, for calculating the size of hail according to the model.
10. hail according to any one of claims 6 to 9 monitors system, which is characterized in that the tool of the hail index
Body formula are as follows:
Using the relationship of reflectivity factor and hail, by reflectivity factor data conversion at the amount of flux E of hail kinetic energy:
E=5 × 10-6×100.084ZW(Z)；
Wherein, Z is reflectance value, ZLFor reflectivity lower limit value, ZUFor upper limit value.W (Z) is that Weighting Functions Definitions rain and hail are anti-
Penetrate the transition zone of the rate factor；
Temperature weighting function W is calculated according to the three-dimensional stereo data and the aerological sounding dataT(H)；
The calculation formula of the hail index SHI are as follows:
H0For the height of 0 degree of layer, Hm20For the height of -20 degree layers, H is the height of the target area；
Wherein, when the height of the target area is less than or equal to the height of 0 degree of layer, temperature weighting function WTIt (H) is 0；
When the height of the target area is greater than the height of 0 degree of layer, spends the height of layers less than -20, temperature weighting function WT(H) it is
When the height of the target area is greater than or equal to the height of -20 degree layers, temperature weighting function WTIt (H) is 1；
The height H of the target area is 1-16km.
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