CN108898258B - Method and system for analyzing cascading failure risk of power system in lightning disaster weather - Google Patents

Method and system for analyzing cascading failure risk of power system in lightning disaster weather Download PDF

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CN108898258B
CN108898258B CN201810739600.8A CN201810739600A CN108898258B CN 108898258 B CN108898258 B CN 108898258B CN 201810739600 A CN201810739600 A CN 201810739600A CN 108898258 B CN108898258 B CN 108898258B
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熊文
林鸿基
阳曾
文福拴
赵宏伟
尚慧玉
陈明辉
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Zhejiang University ZJU
Guangzhou Power Supply Bureau Co Ltd
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Abstract

The invention relates to an analysis method and a system for cascading failure risks of a power system in lightning disaster weather, wherein the analysis method comprises the following steps: acquiring lightning information of 3 continuous time periods according to the lightning monitoring and positioning system; identifying and dividing lightning partitions, determining the circle center coordinate and radius of each lightning partition, and determining the most possible moving path of the lightning partitions in different periods; predicting the number of lightning falling times and the information of each lightning partition in a future period of time; calculating the lightning trip probability of a line influenced by lightning disaster weather in the power system; simulating cascading failures caused by a disaster-stricken line; and calculating the risk of the cascading failure path and the cascading failure risk of the power system under the weather of the lightning disaster. The method can not only carry out real-time early warning on the cascading failure risk of the electric power system in the lightning disaster weather, but also be used for analyzing and comparing the influence of different operation strategies or different construction schemes on the risk of the electric power system in the lightning disaster weather.

Description

Method and system for analyzing cascading failure risk of power system in lightning disaster weather
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of power systems, in particular to a method and a system for analyzing cascading failure risks of a power system under the weather of lightning disasters.
Background
In recent years, many times of blackout accidents of power systems occur worldwide, and the accidents cause huge economic loss and serious social influence to various countries. Disaster weather such as ice and snow, lightning, typhoon and the like is often a cause of power failure accidents, such as large-area power failure accidents caused by ice and snow weather in south china in 2008, and large power failure caused by line lightning stroke failure in 11-month brazil in 2009. Most of these blackout accidents are caused by cascading failures. Therefore, the development of cascading failure search research is of great significance for defending major power failure accidents, reducing failure expansion risks and guaranteeing safe and stable operation of the power system.
The existing method mainly takes direct current steady-state power flow as a basis when the cascading failure is researched, and a cascading failure sequence is searched through indexes such as line load rate, thermal stability margin index or power flow transfer rate after the failure. Although the judgment index based on the dc steady-state power flow can really give an instructive suggestion on the selection of the faulty line in the fault sequence, the calculation result based on the dc power flow does not consider the system reactive power and the variation and influence of the node voltage, and cannot actually consider the capacity limit of the line, so that an erroneous result may be obtained.
On the other hand, meteorological factors have an important influence on the failure rate of a power transmission line and the reliability of a power system, and the source failure of cascading failures in disaster weather is often caused by a severe meteorological environment, so that it is necessary to consider the influence of extreme weather in failure research. At present, related researches mainly focus on the influence of disaster weather on the fault probability of a certain line or the overall reliability of a power system, and researches on cascading faults caused by the disaster weather are rare. In addition, lightning strike is a main cause of line flashover, the number of tripping faults caused by the lightning strike is always the first number of various faults, and the possibility of cascading faults caused by the tripping of the lightning strike on key lines of the power system in lightning disaster weather is not negligible.
Disclosure of Invention
Therefore, there is a need to provide a method and a system for analyzing cascading failure risks of a power system in the weather of a lightning disaster.
A method for analyzing cascading failure risks of a power system under lightning disaster weather comprises the following steps:
acquiring lightning information of 3 continuous time periods according to the lightning monitoring and positioning system;
identifying and dividing lightning partitions according to the lightning information, determining the circle center coordinate and the radius of each lightning partition, and determining the most possible moving path of the lightning partitions in different periods;
predicting the lightning falling times and the information of each lightning subarea in a future time period according to the lightning information of the continuous 3 time periods;
calculating the lightning trip probability of a line influenced by lightning disaster weather in the power system;
simulating cascading failures caused by a disaster-stricken line;
and calculating the occurrence probability of each cascading failure path, calculating the severity of the consequences of the cascading failures, obtaining the risks of the cascading failure paths, and obtaining the cascading failure risks of the power system under the weather of the lightning disasters.
In one embodiment, the period of time is 2 to 15 minutes.
In one embodiment, the lightning information includes a lightning strike location and a lightning current amplitude.
In one embodiment, the lightning zone information includes the maximum values of the position, the size, the lightning strike number and the lightning current amplitude of the lightning zone.
In one embodiment, the calculating the lightning trip probability of the line affected by the weather of the lightning disaster in the power system specifically includes: and calculating the lightning trip probability of the line influenced by the lightning disaster weather in the power system by using a rule method and an empirical formula.
In one embodiment, the simulating the cascading failure caused by the disaster-stricken line specifically includes: and simulating cascading faults caused by the disaster-stricken line by using a hidden fault model based on alternating current power flow.
In one embodiment, the calculating the occurrence probability of each cascading failure path, calculating the severity of the consequences of the cascading failure, obtaining the risk of the cascading failure path, and obtaining the cascading failure risk of the power system in the weather of the lightning disaster specifically includes: calculating the occurrence probability of each cascading failure path, calculating the severity of the consequences of the cascading failures, multiplying the two cascading failure paths to obtain the risks of the cascading failure paths, and adding the risks of all the cascading failure paths to obtain the cascading failure risks of the power system under the weather of the lightning disasters.
In one embodiment, after obtaining the cascading failure risk of the power system in the weather of the lightning disaster, the analysis method further includes the steps of: and processing the lines influenced by the lightning disaster weather in the power system according to the cascading failure risk.
In one embodiment, the processing includes real-time pre-warning, outputting an operation strategy and/or construction plan, and executing the operation strategy and/or construction plan.
An analysis system for cascading failure risks of a power system in lightning disaster weather is achieved by adopting any one of the analysis methods.
According to the analysis method and the analysis system for the cascading failure risk of the power system in the lightning disaster weather, the front-stage lightning information is fully considered to improve the accuracy of the prediction of the rear-stage lightning disaster, the adopted cascading failure simulation method can reflect the change and the influence of the system reactive power and the node voltage and consider the capacity limit of the line, and the development path of the cascading failure can be more accurately judged; can reflect lightning disaster weather and circuit lightning protection ability to the influence of electric power system cascading failure risk conscientiously, not only can carry out real-time early warning to electric power system cascading failure risk under the lightning disaster weather, can also be used for the analysis to compare the influence of different operation strategies or different construction schemes to electric power system risk under the lightning disaster weather.
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Fig. 1 is a flowchart of an analysis method for cascading failure risks of an electric power system in a lightning disaster weather according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of an IEEE 9 node system according to another embodiment of the present invention.
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of lightning zoning, tracking and prediction according to another embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 4 is a flowchart of a method for analyzing cascading failure risks of an electric power system in a lightning disaster weather according to another embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the aforementioned objects, features and advantages of the present invention comprehensible, embodiments accompanied with figures are described in detail below. In the following description, numerous specific details are set forth in order to provide a thorough understanding of the present invention. This invention may, however, be embodied in many different forms and should not be construed as limited to the embodiments set forth herein.
It will be understood that when an element is referred to as being "secured to" or "disposed on" another element, it can be directly on the other element or intervening elements may also be present. When an element is referred to as being "connected" to another element, it can be directly connected to the other element or intervening elements may also be present. The terms "vertical," "horizontal," "left," "right," and the like as used herein are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the only embodiments.
Unless defined otherwise, all technical and scientific terms used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which this invention belongs. The terminology used herein in the description of the invention is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only and is not intended to be limiting of the invention. As used herein, the term "and/or" includes any and all combinations of one or more of the associated listed items.
As shown in fig. 1, an embodiment of the present invention is a method for analyzing cascading failure risk of an electrical power system in lightning disaster weather, including: acquiring lightning information of 3 continuous time periods according to the lightning monitoring and positioning system; identifying and dividing lightning partitions according to the lightning information, determining the circle center coordinate and the radius of each lightning partition, and determining the most possible moving path of the lightning partitions in different periods; predicting the lightning falling times and the information of each lightning subarea in a future time period according to the lightning information of the continuous 3 time periods; calculating the lightning trip probability of a line influenced by lightning disaster weather in the power system; simulating cascading failures caused by a disaster-stricken line; and calculating the occurrence probability of each cascading failure path, calculating the severity of the consequences of the cascading failures, obtaining the risks of the cascading failure paths, and obtaining the cascading failure risks of the power system under the weather of the lightning disasters. Therefore, the accuracy of forecasting the lightning disaster of the rear section is improved by fully considering the information of the lightning at the front section, the adopted cascading failure simulation method can reflect the change and influence of the reactive power and the node voltage of the system and consider the limit of the capacity limit of the line, and the development path of the cascading failure can be judged more accurately; can reflect lightning disaster weather and circuit lightning protection ability to the influence of electric power system cascading failure risk conscientiously, not only can carry out real-time early warning to electric power system cascading failure risk under the lightning disaster weather, can also be used for the analysis to compare the influence of different operation strategies or different construction schemes to electric power system risk under the lightning disaster weather.
In one embodiment, the method for analyzing the cascading failure risk of the power system under the weather of the lightning disaster comprises the following steps of partially or completely.
Acquiring lightning information of 3 continuous time periods according to the lightning monitoring and positioning system; further, in one embodiment, the acquiring lightning information for 3 consecutive periods of time according to the lightning monitoring and locating system includes: and acquiring multiple lightning information of 3 continuous time intervals according to the lightning monitoring and positioning system.
Namely, the method for acquiring the lightning information of 3 continuous periods of time according to the lightning monitoring and positioning system specifically comprises the following steps: acquiring lightning information of 3 continuous time periods according to the lightning monitoring and positioning system;
in one embodiment, the period of time is 2 to 15 minutes. In one embodiment, the period of time is 2, 2.5, 2.8, 3, 3.1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, or 15 minutes, etc. In one embodiment, the time period is 3 minutes, that is, the lightning information of 3 consecutive time periods is obtained according to the lightning monitoring and positioning system, specifically: acquiring 3 pieces of continuous lightning information for 3 minutes according to the lightning monitoring and positioning system; the rest of the examples are analogized.
In one embodiment, the lightning information includes a lightning strike location and a lightning current amplitude. Further, the lightning information includes the lightning strike point position and the lightning current amplitude of each lightning strike. Further, the acquiring the lightning information of 3 continuous periods of time according to the lightning monitoring and positioning system includes acquiring the lightning information of each time of 3 continuous periods of time according to the lightning monitoring and positioning system.
Identifying and dividing lightning partitions according to the lightning information, determining the circle center coordinate and the radius of each lightning partition, and determining the most possible moving path of the lightning partitions in different periods; further, the lightning partitions are circular. Further, in one embodiment, the identifying and dividing the lightning partitions includes dividing the lightning information of each time according to the positions of the lightning falling points and dividing the partitions into circles. Further, the division is performed according to the longitude and latitude of the lightning strike point position, and the division is divided into circles. Further, the radius of the circle is set according to the density of the lightning strike point positions and/or the positions of the power system equipment. Further, in one embodiment, the lightning partitions are identified and divided, i.e., the lightning partitions are identified and divided, wherein the lightning partitions are circular.
Predicting the lightning falling times and the information of each lightning subarea in a future time period according to the lightning information of the continuous 3 time periods; in one embodiment, the lightning zone information includes the maximum values of the position, the size, the lightning strike number and the lightning current amplitude of the lightning zone. Further, the lightning zone information further includes a lightning strike probability of the lightning zone. Further, the positions of the lightning partitions comprise the circle centers and the radii of the lightning partitions.
Calculating the lightning trip probability of a line influenced by lightning disaster weather in the power system; in one embodiment, the calculating the lightning trip probability of the line affected by the weather of the lightning disaster in the power system specifically includes: and calculating the lightning trip probability of the line influenced by the lightning disaster weather in the power system by using a rule method and an empirical formula.
Simulating cascading failures caused by a disaster-stricken line; in one embodiment, the simulating the cascading failure caused by the disaster-stricken line specifically includes: and simulating cascading faults caused by the disaster-stricken line by using a hidden fault model based on alternating current power flow.
And calculating the occurrence probability of each cascading failure path, calculating the severity of the consequences of the cascading failures, obtaining the risks of the cascading failure paths, and obtaining the cascading failure risks of the power system under the weather of the lightning disasters. In one embodiment, the calculating the occurrence probability of each cascading failure path, calculating the severity of the consequences of the cascading failure, obtaining the risk of the cascading failure path, and obtaining the cascading failure risk of the power system in the weather of the lightning disaster specifically includes: calculating the occurrence probability of each cascading failure path, calculating the severity of the consequences of the cascading failures, multiplying the two cascading failure paths to obtain the risks of the cascading failure paths, and adding the risks of all the cascading failure paths to obtain the cascading failure risks of the power system under the weather of the lightning disasters. In one embodiment, the probability of each cascading failure path is multiplied by the severity of the cascading failure consequence of the cascading failure path to obtain the risk of the cascading failure path; and then adding the risks of each cascading failure path to obtain the cascading failure risk of the power system under the weather of the lightning disaster. In practical application, a weight may be set for each cascading failure path according to the importance of each cascading failure path, and further, in one embodiment, the calculating a probability of occurrence of each cascading failure path, and calculating an outcome severity of a cascading failure to obtain a risk of the cascading failure path and obtain a cascading failure risk of the power system in the weather of a lightning disaster specifically include: calculating the occurrence probability of each cascading failure path, calculating the severity of the consequences of the cascading failures of each cascading failure path, multiplying the two probabilities respectively and multiplying the two probabilities by the weight of the cascading failure path to obtain the risk of each cascading failure path, and adding the risks of all cascading failure paths to obtain the cascading failure risk of the power system under the weather of the lightning disasters.
In one embodiment, after obtaining the cascading failure risk of the power system in the weather of the lightning disaster, the analysis method further includes the steps of: and processing the lines influenced by the lightning disaster weather in the power system according to the cascading failure risk. In one embodiment, the processing includes real-time pre-warning, outputting an operation strategy and/or construction plan, and executing the operation strategy and/or construction plan. Therefore, the method and the device can further analyze the influence of the lightning disaster weather and the line lightning protection capacity on the cascading failure risk of the power system, so that the real-time early warning can be carried out on the cascading failure risk of the power system in the lightning disaster weather, and the method and the device can be used for analyzing and comparing the influence of different operation strategies or different construction schemes on the cascading failure risk of the power system in the lightning disaster weather.
In one embodiment, as shown in fig. 4, a method for analyzing the cascading failure risk of a power system in the weather of a lightning disaster includes the steps of: acquiring lightning information of 3 continuous time periods according to the lightning monitoring and positioning system; identifying and dividing lightning partitions, determining the circle center coordinate and the radius of each lightning partition circle, and determining the most possible moving path of the lightning partitions in different periods by using an optimization method; predicting the lightning falling times in a future period of time and the maximum values of the positions, the radius sizes, the lightning falling times and the lightning current amplitude of all the lightning partitions; calculating the lightning trip-out probability of the line influenced by the weather of the lightning disaster in the system; simulating cascading faults caused by a disaster-stricken line by using a hidden fault model based on alternating current power flow; and calculating the risk of each cascading failure path, and adding the risks of all the cascading failure paths to obtain the cascading failure risk of the system under the weather of the lightning disaster.
In one embodiment, the analysis method comprises the steps of: acquiring lightning information of 3 continuous time periods including a lightning landing point position and a lightning current amplitude according to a lightning monitoring and positioning system, wherein the time period is 1 time period within 2-15 minutes; identifying and dividing lightning partitions according to the obtained lightning information, determining the circle center coordinate and the radius of each lightning partition circle, and determining the most possible moving path of the lightning partitions in different periods by using an optimization method; predicting the lightning falling times in a period of time in the future and the maximum values of the position, the size, the lightning falling times and the lightning current amplitude of each lightning subarea according to the acquired lightning information of 3 periods of time; calculating the lightning trip-out probability of the line influenced by the weather of the lightning disaster in the system by using a rule method and an empirical formula; simulating cascading faults caused by a disaster-stricken line by using a hidden fault model based on alternating current power flow; and calculating the occurrence probability of each cascading failure path, calculating the severity of the consequences of the cascading failures, multiplying the two cascading failure paths to obtain the risks of the cascading failure paths, and adding the risks of all the cascading failure paths to obtain the cascading failure risk of the system under the weather of the lightning disaster. In one embodiment, the lightning strike location is set in longitude and latitude. According to the analysis method, the alternating current steady-state load flow is used as a calculation basis, the changes and influences of system reactive power and node voltage can be well reflected, the capacity limit of a line is considered, and the development path of the cascading failure can be accurately judged.
The invention provides a method for calculating cascading failure risk of an electric power system under the weather of a lightning disaster, which comprises the following detailed steps:
step 1, acquiring lightning information of 3 continuous time intervals according to a lightning monitoring and positioning system, wherein the lightning information comprises a lightning strike point position and a lightning current amplitude; in one embodiment, the landing location comprises the longitude and latitude of the landing location, or a location design similar to the longitude and latitude is used to determine the landing location.
And 2, identifying and dividing the lightning partitions according to the obtained lightning information, determining the center coordinates and the radius of each lightning partition circle, and determining the most possible moving path of the lightning partitions in different periods by using an optimization method.
Further, the lightning partitions are identified and divided according to the following steps:
(1) dividing a monitored region into grids (also called small grids) with equal areas according to the longitude and latitude directions, establishing a new coordinate system by taking the longitude and latitude directions as horizontal and vertical coordinates, and further taking the side length of the grids at 0.05 degree, 0.06 degree, 0.07 degree, 0.08 degree or 0.1 degree according to the identification precision requirement;
(2) in a statistical time period, accumulating the lightning falling points (namely the positions where lightning falls) monitored by the lightning monitoring and positioning system to the corresponding grids;
(3) carrying out binarization processing on each square according to the accumulated number of landmine in each square, wherein the number of landmine falling in each square is marked as 1, and otherwise, the number of landmine falling in each square is marked as 0, so as to obtain a landmine falling grid diagram represented by binarization;
(4) identifying the lightning falling areas, and regarding the squares marked as 1 connected in the eight fields as the same lightning falling area; wherein, eight fields are connected, namely, one square grid is connected with eight square grids, namely, an upper square grid, a lower square grid, a left square grid, a right square grid, an upper left square grid, an upper right square grid, a lower left square grid and a lower right square grid;
(5) replacing the irregular outlines of each lightning strike area with circles, and determining the longitude and latitude coordinates (x, y), the circle radius r and the lightning strike probability q of the circle center of the lightning strike area by adopting the following modes:
Figure GDA0002514612380000081
Figure GDA0002514612380000082
Figure GDA0002514612380000083
Figure GDA0002514612380000084
in the formula: x is the number ofiAnd yiRespectively longitude and latitude coordinates of the ith lightning strike, nligIs the total number of landmines in the landing area, NligThe total number of landmines in the statistical time period is obtained; if only one lightning falls in the lightning falling area, the radius of the circle of the lightning falling area is half of the side length of the square grid.
Further, determining the most likely movement path of the lightning partitions in different periods of time is obtained by:
with XijRepresents t1The ith lightning sub-zone reaches t in the time period2Association of jth lightning partition within a period of time. If X ij1 indicates that 2 lightning partitions are connected with each other and are connected with tracks; otherwise, it means that there is no correlation between 2 lightning sections and no trace is connected.
Let t1Within a time interval of nz1Individual lightning section, t2Within a time interval of nz2The lightning is divided into a plurality of areas,
Figure GDA0002514612380000091
represents t1The position of the ith lightning sector within the period,
Figure GDA0002514612380000092
represents t2For obtaining the most possible moving track between every two thunder zones in the adjacent 2 time intervals, the following optimization model can be obtained:
Figure GDA0002514612380000093
Figure GDA0002514612380000094
Figure GDA0002514612380000095
Figure GDA0002514612380000096
Figure GDA0002514612380000097
in the formula: xijIncidence matrix for lightning zoning between adjacent periods
Figure GDA0002514612380000098
Row i, column j; cijAs a cost matrix
Figure GDA0002514612380000101
Row ith and column jth elements, representing t1The ith lightning sub-zone reaches t in the time period2"cost" of the jth lightning section in a time period, CijSmaller indicates that the two lightning partitions are more relevant; omega1And ω2Is a weight; dijRepresenting the distance between the centers of the two lightning subareas; dAijRepresenting the absolute value of the difference between the areas of the two lightning subareas; max (d)ij) Denotes all dijMaximum value of (1); max (d)Aij) Denotes all dAijMaximum value of (2).
When d isijWhen the distance of possible movement of the cloud layer is larger than a period of time, C is addedijSet to a maximum value, representing t1The ith lightning division in the time period is moved to t2The position of the jth lightning partition in the time period is almost impossible, and the moving speed of the cloud layer is not considered to exceed 60km/h in practical application. In this way, it is possible to determine the most probable movement path of the lightning partition during different periods of time by using an optimized method.
Step 3, predicting the lightning falling times and the information of each lightning subarea in a future time period according to the acquired lightning information of 3 time periods; in one embodiment, the lightning strike times in a future period and the maximum values of the position, the size, the lightning strike times and the lightning current amplitude of each lightning subarea are predicted;
further, the lightning information in a future time period is predicted by adopting the following steps:
(1) calculating the moving speed and radius change rate of the lightning subareas according to the positions, moving tracks and circle radii of the lightning subareas in t-2, t-1 and t periods, and predicting the moving speed v of the lightning subareas in t periodstAnd rate of change of radius Δ rtAnd therefore, the position and the size of the lightning partition in the t +1 time period are predicted. The embodiment adopts the information of the lightning partitions in 3 continuous time periods, so that the method can be compared with a prediction method only adopting the information of the first two time periodsHigher prediction accuracy is obtained.
Figure GDA0002514612380000102
Figure GDA0002514612380000103
Figure GDA0002514612380000104
Figure GDA0002514612380000111
In the formula: (x)t-2,yt-2)、(xt-1,yt-1)、(xt,yt) Respectively representing the positions of the lightning partitions in the t-2, t-1 and t periods, delta t is the duration of one period, rt-2、rt-1、rtRespectively representing the radius of the lightning subarea in the t-2, t-1 and t periods.
(2) Calculating the moving speed v of the lightning subarea in the t periodtAnd rate of change of radius Δ rtThe method is realized by adopting the following steps:
Figure GDA0002514612380000112
Figure GDA0002514612380000113
(3) the position and the size of each lightning partition in the t +1 time period are predicted by adopting the following modes:
(xt+1,yt+1)＝(xt,yt)+vtΔt
rt+1＝rt(1+Δrt)
(4) after the positions and the sizes of the lightning partitions in the t +1 time period are obtained, the partitions with the distance between the circle centers of the lightning partitions being smaller than half of the side length of the square grids are combined into one lightning partition, and then the lightning partitions are combined into a wholeCalculating the incidence matrix of the lightning partitions from the t period to the t +1 period according to the method in the step 2, and predicting the lightning current I of each lightning partition from the t +1 period in the following way[t+1]And the probability of lightning fall q[t+1]：
Figure GDA0002514612380000114
Figure GDA0002514612380000115
In the formula: m is the number of partitions associated with the requested lightning partition for period t,
Figure GDA0002514612380000116
for a period t the maximum lightning current in the kth lightning partition associated with the sought lightning partition,
Figure GDA0002514612380000117
probability of lightning strike for kth lightning partition associated with the sought lightning partition for period t, NkIs the number of t +1 time period lightning partitions associated with the t time period lightning partition.
(5) Predicting total number of landmines in t +1 time period according to exponential smoothing method
Figure GDA0002514612380000121
(integer is taken as calculation result):
Figure GDA0002514612380000122
in the formula of alphaesIn the present embodiment, α is a weight in the exponential smoothing methodesTake 0.75.
Step 4, calculating the lightning trip probability of the line influenced by the weather of the lightning disaster in the power system;
further, the lightning trip probability of the line affected by the weather of the lightning disaster in the system is calculated, and the method is realized by adopting the following mode:
(1) when lightning strikes on the towerLightning resistance level I of transmission linecaThe method is realized by adopting the following steps:
Figure GDA0002514612380000123
in the formula: u shape50％Is the insulator chain negative polarity 50% flashover voltage (unit is kV) under standard lightning wave, kcCoupling coefficient, k, for taking account of corona effects between lightning conductor and transmission line0Is the geometric coupling coefficient, k, between the conductor and the lightning conductorc＝1.1～1.3k0；ha、ht、havAnd hgavRespectively the height of a crosspiece, the height of a tower, the average height of a conducting wire and the average height of a lightning conductor, RsuFor tower impulse grounding resistance, LtEquivalent inductance (unit is muH) of the tower.
(2) Calculating lightning resistance level I when lightning shielding circuit is damagedsfThe method is realized by adopting the following steps:
Figure GDA0002514612380000124
in the formula ZsuThe wave impedance of the wire after the corona effect is considered.
(3) Predicting the lightning current maximum I according to the method described in step 3[t+1]On the basis of the above, calculating the probability P that the lightning current exceeds the lightning resistance level of the power transmission linecaAnd PsfThe method is realized by adopting the following steps:
Pca＝Pacc(Ica)-Pacc(I[t+1])
Psf＝Pacc(Isf)-Pacc(I[t+1])
(4) calculating the arc establishing rate eta, and realizing the arc establishing rate eta by adopting the following method:
Figure GDA0002514612380000131
in the formula EgradThe average operating voltage gradient (in kV/m) of the insulator string.
(5) Calculating the shielding failure rate P of the power transmission lineαThe method is realized by adopting the following steps:
Figure GDA0002514612380000132
in the formula: alpha is the protection angle of the lightning conductor to the lead, and h is the height of the lead.
(6) According to the lengths of the lines in different lightning strike zones, the lightning strike trip-out probability of the lines in a certain lightning strike zone i in a future t +1 time period is estimated, and the method is realized by adopting the following mode:
Figure GDA0002514612380000133
in the formula: g is the striking rate, 1/6 is taken in plain areas, 1/4 is taken in mountain areas; pcaiThe probability that the lightning counterattack current in the ith lightning subarea exceeds the lightning resistance level of the power transmission line is shown; psfiThe probability that the lightning shielding current in the ith lightning subarea exceeds the lightning resisting level of the power transmission line is set; b is the distance between two lightning conductors, liDistance of line in ith lightning zone, (b +4 h)av)liIs the area of lightning attraction; a. theiFor the area of the predicted ith lightning zone,
Figure GDA0002514612380000134
the predicted maximum lightning current amplitude of the ith lightning subarea is obtained;
Figure GDA0002514612380000135
Figure GDA0002514612380000136
the number of lightning partitions in the period of t + 1.
(7) Calculating the lightning trip-out probability of the line in the future t +1 time period, and realizing the method by adopting the following mode:
Figure GDA0002514612380000137
in the formulancrossThe number of lightning zones a line passes through.
Step 5, simulating cascading faults caused by the disaster-stricken line by using a hidden fault model based on alternating current power flow;
further, cascading failures are simulated, and the following method is adopted:
(1) calculating the fault probability of the lines in the area affected by the lightning weather according to the method in the step 4, and randomly selecting one line to be disconnected according to the corresponding probability;
(2) performing optimal power flow calculation by taking the maximum power supply load as an objective function, and judging whether the load rate of a line reaches 100% or higher;
(3) if there are lines in the system that exceed the power transmission limit, assume there is n in this caseolLine exceeding transmission power limit, the system is in slave state
Figure GDA0002514612380000141
Transition to a State
Figure GDA0002514612380000142
Has a probability of
Figure GDA0002514612380000143
Entering the step (6);
(4) if no line exceeding the power transmission limit exists in the system, the fault probability of the line i in the current state is recorded as
Figure GDA0002514612380000144
Figure GDA0002514612380000145
Can be calculated by the following method:
Figure GDA0002514612380000146
in the formula: siRepresenting the magnitude of the flow on line i (taking the larger absolute value of the bi-directional flow), Si0Indicating rating of line iTransmission power, SimaxIndicating the limiting transmission power, P, of line iH0.0055 was taken.
And, in addition, with
Figure GDA0002514612380000147
Represents the sum of all possible line outage probabilities in the current state, wherein
Figure GDA0002514612380000148
Defined as the set of all lines directly connected to the mth faulty line in the kth cascading failure path, the system is in a slave state
Figure GDA0002514612380000149
Transition to a State
Figure GDA00025146123800001410
The probability of (2) is realized by adopting the following modes:
Figure GDA00025146123800001411
(5) if the state transition probability in the step (4) is larger than a set threshold and the fault scale is smaller than the set threshold, randomly selecting one line as a next-stage fault line;
(6) judging whether a termination condition is met, if the termination condition is not met, cutting off a next-stage fault line and returning to the step (2), otherwise, ending the simulation; the simulation termination condition is as follows: firstly, a possible fault line meeting the conditions does not exist in the system; the occurrence probability of the cascading failure is lower than a minimum value, such as one millionth or one million; and thirdly, the load loss proportion of the system reaches 30 percent.
Step 6, calculating the occurrence probability and the consequence severity of each cascading failure path so as to obtain the risks of the cascading failure paths, and adding the risks of all the cascading failure paths to obtain the cascading failure risks of the system in the weather of the lightning disasters;
further, multiplying the conditional probability of each stage of fault occurrence as the probability of fault path occurrence, and the specific calculation method is as follows:
Figure GDA0002514612380000151
in the formula:
Figure GDA0002514612380000152
representing the probability of occurrence of an originating fault that caused the cascading failure k;
Figure GDA0002514612380000153
the conditional probability of the cascading failure path k developing from the n-1 line to the n line is shown, and the conditional probability of the cascading failure path k developing from the state of the system is also shown
Figure GDA0002514612380000154
Transition to a State
Figure GDA0002514612380000155
The probability of (c).
Specifically, the degree of reduction of the power supply capacity after the cascading failure of the power system is reflected by the load loss index, so that the severity of the consequences of the cascading failure is reflected, and the specific calculation method is as follows:
cascading failure EkThe loss load ratio after occurrence is calculated according to the following formula:
Figure GDA0002514612380000156
in the formula: pload0Indicating the amount of load, P, when the system is normalloadkIndicating cascading failure EkThe load of the system can be maintained after the occurrence.
Cascading failure EkThe outcome severity indicator after occurrence is defined as:
Figure GDA0002514612380000157
wherein the coefficient c is 10/3 × ln (2).
Further, the risk of all cascading failure paths is added to obtain the cascading failure risk of the system under the weather of the lightning disaster, and the specific calculation method is shown as the following formula:
Figure GDA0002514612380000161
in the formula: pro(Ek) Indicating cascading failure EkProbability of occurrence, Sev(Ek) Indicating cascading failure EkSeverity of consequences after onset, NeIndicating the number of possible cascading failure paths.
In another embodiment of the present invention, an analysis system for cascading failure risks of an electrical power system in a lightning disaster weather is implemented by using any one of the analysis methods described above. Further, the analysis system comprises a plurality of functional modules, and each functional module is respectively used for executing relevant steps of the analysis method. In one embodiment, the analysis system comprises an acquisition module, an identification module, a prediction module, a calculation module, a simulation module and an analysis module, wherein the acquisition module is used for acquiring lightning information of 3 continuous periods of time according to the lightning monitoring and positioning system; the identification module is used for identifying the lightning partitions and dividing the lightning partitions into circles according to the lightning information, determining the circle center coordinate and the radius of each lightning partition, and determining the most possible moving path of the lightning partitions in different periods; the prediction module is used for predicting the lightning falling times and the information of each lightning subarea in a future time period according to the lightning information of continuous 3 time periods; the calculation module is used for calculating the lightning trip-out probability of the line influenced by the weather of the lightning disaster in the power system; the simulation module is used for simulating cascading failures caused by a disaster-stricken line; the analysis module is used for calculating the occurrence probability of each cascading failure path, calculating the severity of the consequences of the cascading failures, obtaining the risks of the cascading failure paths and obtaining the cascading failure risks of the power system in the lightning disaster weather. The rest of the examples are analogized. Further, the calculation module is used for calculating the lightning trip probability of the line affected by the weather of the lightning disaster in the power system by using a rule method and an empirical formula. The rest of the examples are analogized. The analysis system of the cascading failure risk of the power system in the lightning disaster weather fully considers the information of the thunder and lightning at the front section so as to improve the accuracy of forecasting the thunder and lightning at the rear section, and the adopted cascading failure simulation method can reflect the change and influence of the reactive power and the node voltage of the system and consider the capacity limit limitation of the line, so that the development path of the cascading failure can be more accurately judged; can reflect lightning disaster weather and circuit lightning protection ability to the influence of electric power system cascading failure risk conscientiously, not only can carry out real-time early warning to electric power system cascading failure risk under the lightning disaster weather, can also be used for the analysis to compare the influence of different operation strategies or different construction schemes to electric power system risk under the lightning disaster weather.
For further understanding of the present invention, the practical application of the present invention is explained below by taking an IEEE 9 node system as an example, and a schematic diagram of the IEEE 9 node system is shown in fig. 2.
Because the longitude and latitude spanned by a city generally do not exceed 2 degrees, the longitude and latitude coordinates used in the lightning monitoring and positioning system can be approximately replaced by the coordinates taking kilometers as units. Assuming that a unit length in fig. 3 represents 10 km, coordinates of lightning and lightning current amplitudes in t-2, t-1 and t periods are generated in the form of random numbers, and the number of lightning strikes in 3 periods is assumed to be 200, 250 and 230, respectively.
The number of lightning strike times in the t +1 time period obtained according to the step 3 is 229, and the maximum values of the coordinates, the size, the lightning strike probability and the lightning current amplitude of the lightning partition in the t +1 time period are predicted according to the methods provided by the step 2 and the step 3, and the prediction results are shown in the table 1 and the attached drawing 3. The paths and areas indicated by dashed lines in fig. 3 are the predicted movement paths and lightning partitions.
TABLE 1 prediction results of lightning partition parameters at t +1 time period
Figure GDA0002514612380000171
Further assuming node 5 in FIG. 2 is at coordinates (50,50) in FIG. 3 and node 6 is at coordinates (50,35), this may be the caseAnd calculating the lightning trip probability of the line 5-6 in the t +1 time period according to the step 4. Common data, namely U, using 220kV overhead transmission lines in the calculation process50％＝1200kV，Zsu＝400Ω，β＝0.88，kc＝0.296，k0＝0.237，ha＝25.6m、ht＝29.1m，h＝hav＝15.4m，hgav＝24.5m，Rsu＝7Ω，Lt16.4 μ H, η 0.918, g 1/6, b 11.6m, α 16.5 °. The lightning trip probability of 5-6 in the t +1 period was calculated to be 0.00080760.
And (3) simulating cascading failures caused by the disaster-stricken line according to the hidden failure model based on the alternating current power flow provided in the step 5, wherein 9 different cascading failure paths can be obtained altogether, and the total cascading failure risk of the system in a future period is 0.00012325. Assuming that the capacity of the line 4-5 is increased by 1.05 times by the relevant reinforcement measures, the cascading failure risk of the system will be reduced to 0.00011568, which is reduced by 6.14%.
Through the analysis, the method for analyzing the cascading failure risk of the power system in the lightning disaster weather not only can perform real-time early warning on the cascading failure risk of the power system in the lightning disaster weather, but also can be used for analyzing and comparing the influence of different operation strategies or different construction schemes on the cascading failure risk of the power system in the lightning disaster weather.
It should be noted that, other embodiments of the present invention further include an analysis method and system for cascading failure risk of an electrical power system in lightning disaster weather, which are formed by mutually combining technical features in the above embodiments and can be implemented; the method and the system can also be used for analyzing cascading failure risks of the power system in the weather of lightning disasters. The method comprises the following steps that a computer program processing flow is taken as a basis, a computer executes the computer program compiled according to the flow, certain external operation processes or external operation devices are controlled, and/or external data are processed or exchanged, so that cascading failure risks of the power system in the weather of lightning disasters are obtained, and lines influenced by the weather of the lightning disasters in the power system are further processed according to the cascading failure risks, real-time early warning, operation strategies and/or construction schemes can be output, operation strategies and/or construction schemes can be executed, and therefore changes and influences of system reactive power and node voltage can be reflected, capacity limit limits of the lines are considered, and development paths of the cascading failures can be judged more accurately; can reflect lightning disaster weather and circuit lightning protection ability to the influence of electric power system cascading failure risk conscientiously, not only can carry out real-time early warning to electric power system cascading failure risk under the lightning disaster weather, can also be used for the analysis to compare the influence of different operation strategies or different construction schemes to electric power system risk under the lightning disaster weather.
The technical features of the embodiments described above may be arbitrarily combined, and for the sake of brevity, all possible combinations of the technical features in the embodiments described above are not described, but should be considered as being within the scope of the present specification as long as there is no contradiction between the combinations of the technical features.
The above-mentioned embodiments only express several embodiments of the present invention, and the description thereof is more specific and detailed, but not construed as limiting the scope of the invention. It should be noted that, for a person skilled in the art, several variations and modifications can be made without departing from the inventive concept, which falls within the scope of the present invention. Therefore, the protection scope of the present patent shall be subject to the appended claims.

Claims (10)

1. The method for analyzing cascading failure risks of the power system in the weather of the lightning disasters is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
acquiring lightning information of 3 continuous time periods according to the lightning monitoring and positioning system;
identifying and dividing lightning partitions according to the lightning information, determining the circle center coordinate and the radius of each lightning partition, and determining the most possible moving path of the lightning partitions in different periods;
predicting the lightning falling times and the information of each lightning subarea in a future time period according to the lightning information of the continuous 3 time periods;
calculating the lightning trip probability of a line influenced by lightning disaster weather in the power system;
simulating cascading failures caused by a disaster-stricken line;
calculating the occurrence probability of each cascading failure path, calculating the severity of the consequences of the cascading failures of each cascading failure path, multiplying the two probabilities respectively and multiplying the multiplication results by the weight of the cascading failure path to obtain the risk of each cascading failure path, and adding the risks of all cascading failure paths to obtain the cascading failure risk of the power system under the weather of the lightning disasters;
processing the lines influenced by the lightning disaster weather in the power system according to the cascading failure risk; the processing comprises real-time early warning, output of an operation strategy and/or a construction scheme and execution of the operation strategy and/or the construction scheme;
wherein, the calculating the lightning trip probability of the line influenced by the weather of the lightning disaster in the power system comprises the following steps:
calculating lightning resistance level I of power transmission line when lightning strikes on towercaThe method is realized by adopting the following steps:
Figure FDA0002591486760000011
in the formula: u shape50％Is the insulator string negative polarity 50% flashover voltage, k under the standard lightning wavecCoupling coefficient, k, for taking account of corona effects between lightning conductor and transmission line0Is the geometric coupling coefficient, k, between the conductor and the lightning conductorc＝1.1～1.3k0；ha、ht、havAnd hgavRespectively the height of a crosspiece, the height of a tower, the average height of a conducting wire and the average height of a lightning conductor, RsuFor tower impulse grounding resistance, LtEquivalent inductance of the tower;
calculating lightning resistance level I when lightning shielding circuit is damagedsfThe method is realized by adopting the following steps:
Figure FDA0002591486760000021
in the formula ZsuTo account for wire wave impedance after corona effects;
in predicting lightning current maximum value I[t+1]On the basis of the above, calculating the probability P that the lightning current exceeds the lightning resistance level of the power transmission linecaAnd PsfThe method is realized by adopting the following steps:
Pca＝Pacc(Ica)-Pacc(I[t+1])
Psf＝Pacc(Isf)-Pacc(I[t+1])
calculating the arc establishing rate eta, and realizing the arc establishing rate eta by adopting the following method:
Figure FDA0002591486760000022
in the formula EgradThe average running voltage gradient of the insulator string is obtained;
calculating the shielding failure rate P of the power transmission lineαThe method is realized by adopting the following steps:
Figure FDA0002591486760000023
in the formula: alpha is the protection angle of the lightning conductor to the lead, and h is the height of the lead;
according to the lengths of the lines in different lightning strike zones, the lightning strike trip-out probability of the lines in a certain lightning strike zone i in a future t +1 time period is estimated, and the method is realized by adopting the following mode:
Figure FDA0002591486760000024
in the formula: g is the striking rate, 1/6 is taken in plain areas, 1/4 is taken in mountain areas; pcaiThe probability that the lightning counterattack current in the ith lightning subarea exceeds the lightning resistance level of the power transmission line is shown; psfiThe probability that the lightning shielding current in the ith lightning subarea exceeds the lightning resisting level of the power transmission line is set; b is twoDistance between the lightning conductors, /)iDistance of line in ith lightning zone, (b +4 h)av)liIs the area of lightning attraction; a. theiFor the area of the predicted ith lightning zone,
Figure FDA0002591486760000031
the predicted maximum lightning current amplitude of the ith lightning subarea is obtained;
Figure FDA0002591486760000032
Figure FDA0002591486760000033
the number of lightning partitions in a period of t + 1;
calculating the lightning trip-out probability of the line in the future t +1 time period, and realizing the method by adopting the following mode:
Figure FDA0002591486760000034
in the formula ncrossNumber of lightning zones for line passing
Wherein, the simulating the cascading failure caused by the disaster-stricken line comprises:
according to the lightning trip-out probability of the line in the area affected by the lightning weather, randomly selecting one line to be disconnected according to the corresponding probability;
performing optimal power flow calculation by taking the maximum power supply load as an objective function, and judging whether the load rate of a line reaches 100% or higher;
if there are lines in the system that exceed the power transmission limit, assume there is n in this caseolLine exceeding transmission power limit, the system is in slave state
Figure FDA0002591486760000035
Transition to a State
Figure FDA0002591486760000036
Has a probability of
Figure FDA0002591486760000037
Directly carrying out the subsequent step of judging whether the termination condition is met;
if no line exceeding the power transmission limit exists in the system, the fault probability of the line i in the current state is recorded as
Figure FDA0002591486760000038
Figure FDA00025914867600000310
Calculated by the following method:
Figure FDA0002591486760000039
in the formula: siRepresenting the magnitude of the flow on line i and taking the value with the greater absolute value of the bi-directional flow, Si0Indicating the nominal transmission power, S, of the line iimaxIndicating the limiting transmission power, P, of line iHTaking 0.0055;
and, in addition, with
Figure FDA0002591486760000041
Represents the sum of all possible line outage probabilities in the current state, wherein
Figure FDA0002591486760000042
Defined as the set of all lines directly connected to the mth faulty line in the kth cascading failure path, the system is in a slave state
Figure FDA0002591486760000043
Transition to a State
Figure FDA0002591486760000044
The probability of (2) is realized by adopting the following modes:
Figure FDA0002591486760000045
if the state transition probability is larger than a set threshold value and the fault scale is smaller than the set threshold value, randomly selecting one line as a next-stage fault line;
judging whether a termination condition is met, if the termination condition is not met, cutting off a next-stage fault line and returning to the step of judging whether the load rate of the line reaches 100% or higher, otherwise, ending the simulation; wherein, the simulation termination condition comprises: there is no possible faulty line in the system that meets the conditions; the probability of occurrence of cascading failures is already below a minimum value; and the system load loss proportion has reached 30%.
2. The assay of claim 1, wherein the time period is from 2 to 15 minutes.
3. The analysis method of claim 1, wherein the lightning information comprises lightning strike location and lightning current magnitude.
4. The analysis method according to claim 1, wherein the lightning zone information includes maximum values of the location, size, lightning strike number and lightning current amplitude of the lightning zone.
5. The analysis method according to claim 1, wherein the calculating of the lightning trip probability of the line affected by the weather of the lightning disaster in the power system comprises: and calculating the lightning trip probability of the line influenced by the lightning disaster weather in the power system by using a rule method and an empirical formula.
6. The analysis method according to claim 1, wherein the simulating the cascading failure caused by the disaster-stricken line comprises: and simulating cascading faults caused by the disaster-stricken line by using a hidden fault model based on alternating current power flow.
7. The analysis method according to claim 1, wherein the calculating the probability of occurrence of each cascading failure path, the calculating the severity of the consequences of the cascading failure, the obtaining the risk of the cascading failure path, and the obtaining the cascading failure risk of the power system in the weather of the lightning disaster includes: calculating the occurrence probability of each cascading failure path, calculating the severity of the consequences of the cascading failures, multiplying the two cascading failure paths to obtain the risks of the cascading failure paths, and adding the risks of all the cascading failure paths to obtain the cascading failure risks of the power system under the weather of the lightning disasters.
8. The analysis method according to any one of claims 1 to 7, characterized in that the lightning zones are identified and divided according to the following steps:
(1) dividing a monitoring region into grids with equal areas according to the longitude and latitude directions, and establishing a new coordinate system by taking the longitude and latitude directions as horizontal and vertical coordinates;
(2) accumulating the lightning falling points monitored by the lightning monitoring and positioning system to the corresponding grids in a statistical time period;
(3) carrying out binarization processing on each square according to the accumulated number of landmine in each square, wherein the number of landmine falling in each square is marked as 1, and otherwise, the number of landmine falling in each square is marked as 0, so as to obtain a landmine falling grid diagram represented by binarization;
(4) identifying the lightning falling areas, and regarding the squares marked as 1 connected in the eight fields as the same lightning falling area; wherein, eight fields are connected, namely, one square grid is connected with eight square grids, namely, an upper square grid, a lower square grid, a left square grid, a right square grid, an upper left square grid, an upper right square grid, a lower left square grid and a lower right square grid;
(5) replacing the irregular outlines of each lightning strike area with circles, and determining the longitude and latitude coordinates (x, y), the circle radius r and the lightning strike probability q of the circle center of the lightning strike area by adopting the following modes:
Figure FDA0002591486760000061
Figure FDA0002591486760000062
Figure FDA0002591486760000063
Figure FDA0002591486760000064
in the formula: x is the number ofiAnd yiRespectively longitude and latitude coordinates of the ith lightning strike, nligIs the total number of landmines in the landing area, NligThe total number of landmines in the statistical time period is obtained; if only one lightning falls in the lightning falling area, the radius of the circle of the lightning falling area is half of the side length of the square grid.
9. The method of claim 8, wherein determining the most likely path of movement of the lightning partitions during different time periods is performed by:
with XijRepresents t1The ith lightning sub-zone reaches t in the time period2The association condition of the jth lightning partition in the time interval is Xij1 indicates that 2 lightning partitions are connected with each other and are connected with tracks; otherwise, no correlation exists among the 2 lightning partitions and no tracks are connected;
let t1Within a time interval of nz1Individual lightning section, t2Within a time interval of nz2The lightning is divided into a plurality of areas,
Figure FDA0002591486760000065
represents t1The position of the ith lightning sector within the period,
Figure FDA0002591486760000066
represents t2For obtaining the most possible moving track between every two thunder areas in the adjacent 2 time intervals, the following optimization model is obtained:
Figure FDA0002591486760000067
Figure FDA0002591486760000068
Figure FDA0002591486760000071
Figure FDA0002591486760000072
Figure FDA0002591486760000073
in the formula: xijIncidence matrix for lightning zoning between adjacent periods
Figure FDA0002591486760000074
Row i, column j; cijAs a cost matrix
Figure FDA0002591486760000075
Row ith and column jth elements, representing t1The ith lightning sub-zone reaches t in the time period2Cost of the jth lightning partition within a time period; omega1And ω2Is a weight; dijRepresenting the distance between the centers of the two lightning subareas; dAijRepresenting the absolute value of the difference between the areas of the two lightning subareas; max (d)ij) Denotes all dijMaximum value of (1); max (d)Aij) Denotes all dAijMaximum value of (1); when d isijWhen the distance of possible movement of the cloud layer is larger than a period of time, C is addedijSet to a maximum value.
10. An analysis system for cascading failure risks of a power system under the weather of a lightning disaster, which is characterized by being realized by adopting the analysis method of any one of claims 1 to 9.
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