CN103606109B - A kind of safe operation of electric network risk integrative assessment method based on evaluation object - Google Patents

A kind of safe operation of electric network risk integrative assessment method based on evaluation object Download PDF

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Publication number
CN103606109B
CN103606109B CN201310509032.XA CN201310509032A CN103606109B CN 103606109 B CN103606109 B CN 103606109B CN 201310509032 A CN201310509032 A CN 201310509032A CN 103606109 B CN103606109 B CN 103606109B
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evaluation
risk
grid event
assessment
data
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CN201310509032.XA
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CN103606109A (en
Inventor
张忠会
谢义苗
何乐彰
王卉
许威
何叶
张琪琪
胡波
胡一波
万东
李玉婷
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南昌大学
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Abstract

A kind of safe operation of electric network risk integrative assessment method based on evaluation object, concretely comprises the following steps: disposal data, builds input database module;Determine the object of needs assessment, build evaluation object and select module;Different evaluation objects are selected corresponding appraisal procedure;Calculate the risk indicator of evaluation object, build risk indicator computing module;The assessment result of evaluation object respective risk index is saved in risk evaluation result storehouse, builds risk evaluation result library module;The risk indicator result of analysis and evaluation object, provides the weak link of electrical network.The basic data of safe operation of electric network risk is carried out concentrating analysis and processing by the present invention according to different risk assessment objects;Different evaluation objects is carried out risk Factor Analysis, determines and calculate the risk assessment index of different object, the weak link of electrical network is analyzed;Achieving the purpose of safe operation of electric network risk integrative assessment based on evaluation object, the safe operation for electrical network provides certain theoretical foundation.

Description

A kind of safe operation of electric network risk integrative assessment method based on evaluation object
Technical field
The invention belongs to Study of Risk Evaluation Analysis for Power System field, be specifically related to a kind of safe operation of electric network risk integrative assessment method.
Background technology
Safe operation of electric network risk assessment is the important channel understanding safe operation of electric network situation, can realize assessing the operation security risk that different object is faced by risk assessment.
Current Operation of Electric Systems security study method main still Deterministic Methods, the randomness that less consideration equipment is out of service;Existing study about Operation of Electric Systems security risk assessment on a small quantity, be primarily directed to some concrete object of study, different to the processing method of failure effect, and there is presently no one risk integrative assessment system the most complete of formation.
Currently, propelling along with power market reform degree, change and the new member of administrative organization participate in electricity market, all there is great change in the structure and the operational management that make electrical network, in electric public service, unmanageable uncertain factor and the impact on electrical network thereof are deepened further so that the safe and stable operation Challenge of power system.In view of the random nature of a large amount of grid event, fall into a trap and various uncertain factor assessment power grid risk is the most necessary at Practical Project.Therefore, the present invention proposes safe operation of electric network risk integrative assessment method based on evaluation object.
The basic definition of electric power system operation risk assessment: the hidden danger existed that is in operation electrical network is estimated, the uncertain factor in other words power system faced, provide the comprehensive measurement of probability and seriousness, find out the operating power system influence degree for disturbance event, simultaneously by excavating electric network element reliability service potentiality, to ensure whole power system security, reliability service.The main purpose of operation of power networks risk assessment is the risk level weighing operation of power networks by risk indicator and the consequence being likely to result in.
Summary of the invention
It is an object of the invention to provide a kind of safe operation of electric network risk integrative assessment method based on evaluation object, based on different evaluation objects, from the angle estimator safe operation of electric network risk of Risk Theory.The present invention solves to assess at present less consideration grid event randomness that safe operation of electric network exists and evaluation object is the most single, the problem that do not forms full assessment system.
The technical solution adopted for the present invention to solve the technical problems is: first build the input database module of object-based safe operation of electric network risk evaluating system, and the historical statistical data of equipment, equipment including basis run time limit data, meteorological data and operational monitoring data;Next determines operation risk assessment object, includes three objects altogether: equipment, transformer station, operation of power networks state;And then operation risk index is calculated, application submodule 4, submodule 5, submodule 6 calculate corresponding safe operation of electric network risk indicator;Finally the risk evaluation result of different objects is stored in submodule 8, submodule 9 and submodule 10.The basic data of safe operation of electric network risk is carried out concentrating analysis and processing by the present invention according to different risk assessment objects;Different evaluation objects is carried out risk Factor Analysis, determines and calculate the risk assessment index of different object, the weak link of electrical network is analyzed;Achieving the purpose of safe operation of electric network risk integrative assessment based on evaluation object, the safe operation for electrical network provides certain theoretical foundation.
To achieve these goals, the step of a kind of safe operation of electric network risk integrative assessment method based on evaluation object of the present invention is as follows:
The first step, disposal data, build input database module;
Data in input database module include that device history statistical data, equipment run time limit data, meteorological data and operational monitoring data;Wherein device history statistical data, equipment operation time limit data and meteorological data are mainly used in the stoppage in transit probability of calculating equipment;Operational monitoring data are then the data that operation of power networks is relevant, for the risk indicator of analytical calculation evaluation object;
Second step, determines the object of needs assessment, builds evaluation object and selects module;
Complex characteristics due to electrical network itself, when therefore safe operation of electric network being carried out risk assessment, according to the needs of assessment target, first it is divided into some evaluation objects limited, that scope determines by certain principle, it is estimated the most respectively, the most again the assessment of comprehensive whole system;System is divided into different types of evaluation object, it is therefore an objective to facilitate the carrying out that risk assessment works, simplifies evaluation work, reduce evaluation work amount, it is to avoid omit, improve the accuracy to safe operation of electric network risk assessment;Electrical network evaluation object is divided into equipment, transformer station, operation of power networks state, from multi-angle, Multi-level Evaluation safe operation of electric network risk;
When carrying out contingency analysis, fault set to be initially formed, method large-scale electrical power system being formed to fault has DSMC and State enumeration method two kinds;For simple relatively glitch collection, can be enumerated by the method that state is enumerated;For the fault set that scale is bigger, choose fault set by the method for Monte-Carlo step.
Different evaluation objects are selected corresponding appraisal procedure by the 3rd step;
Evaluation object decides the content of assessment, mode and method;When evaluation object is equipment, the sequentially opened electric network element of method of N-1 is used to be estimated;When evaluation object is transformer station, the circuit in transformer station, chopper, the running status of transformator use DSMC to carry out stochastic simulation, then carry out connective identification;When evaluation object is operation of power networks state, the circuit in whole electrical network, transformator, the running status of electromotor pass through its randomness of Monte-carlo Simulation;
4th step, calculates the risk indicator of evaluation object, builds risk indicator computing module;
After being selected evaluation object and appraisal procedure by second step and the 3rd step, determining the value of different evaluation object risk, its size directly reflects the size of evaluation object risk;
Its risk assessment processes is:
(1) the input data of evaluation object;
(2) contingency analysis, its objective is the Line Flow after calculating one or more equipment failure and busbar voltage, to identify whether to cause circuit overload, voltage out-of-limit, bus isolated or system is separated into the problems such as isolated island;
(3) judge whether problem described in (2nd) step;If problem above occurs, then proceed to (4th) step;Otherwise, (2nd) step is returned;
(4) the grid event probability occurred is calculated;
(5) consequence that grid event is brought is calculated;
(6) calculating the risk of grid event, its size is the probability product with grid event consequence of grid event generation;
(7) judge whether that all forecast failures calculate complete;If completing, then proceed to (8th) step;Otherwise, (2nd) step is returned;
(8) result of risk indicator is exported;
Produced by the probability of grid event generation, grid event, consequence and grid event Risk Calculation are as follows:
The calculating of the probability P that grid event occurs:
The probability that grid event occurs can be calculated, from the input data of evaluation object, the probability that grid event occurs;The probability calculation formula that grid event occurs is:
P=F (X1,X2,X3)
In formula: P represents the probability that grid event occurs;
(X1,X2,X3) represent data in input database module respectively;
F, for calculating function, is defined as: sampling method/matrix method/four arithmetic operation;
Consequence calculation produced by grid event:
Some grid event there is electrical network be produced certain impact, as out of service in one or more electric network elements Branch Power Flow and node voltage may be caused to change;By introducing the impact on producing electrical network of these grid event of corresponding function evaluation.The Consequence calculation formula that grid event produces is:
S=F (Y1,Y2,Y3)
In formula: S is consequence produced by grid event:
(Y1,Y2,Y3) it is the several parameters reflecting grid event consequence respectively;
Grid event Risk Calculation:
Grid event Risk Calculation is according to consequence S produced by first two steps calculated grid event probability of happening P and grid event.Grid event Risk Calculation formula is:
R=F (P, S)
The Risk Results that grid event calculates, is stored in risk evaluation result library module by the 5th step.
5th step, it is judged that whether the risk indicator of evaluation object reaches convergent requirement;If reaching convergent requirement, then enter the 6th step, in preservation assessment result to risk evaluation result storehouse.
6th step, is saved in the assessment result of evaluation object respective risk index in risk evaluation result storehouse, builds risk evaluation result library module;
During the different object of assessment, the risk indicator chosen is different, and an object evaluation completes, and result stores to risk evaluation result storehouse;During the next object of assessment, it will initialize running environment;
7th step, it is judged that it is complete whether all objects are assessed;If assessing complete, proceed to the 8th step;Otherwise, return second step, next evaluation object is estimated;
8th step, the risk indicator result of analysis and evaluation object, provide the weak link of electrical network;
The risk indicator result calculated according to the first seven step, is ranked up the value-at-risk size of equipment in risk evaluation result storehouse, and value-at-risk is the biggest, represents that this equipment is the weak link of electrical network.
The invention has the beneficial effects as follows: the present invention considers the random nature of grid event, and based on different evaluation objects, current existing a small amount of research in terms of Operation of Electric Systems security risk assessment is arranged improvement, is defined a risk integrative assessment system the most complete.The hidden danger existed that is in operation electrical network is estimated, and finds out the operating power system influence degree for disturbance event, it is ensured that whole power system security, reliability service.
Accompanying drawing explanation
The assessment system structure schematic diagram that Fig. 1 is constructed by a kind of safe operation of electric network risk integrative assessment method based on evaluation object;
Fig. 2 is risk assessment flow chart;
Fig. 3 is risk indicator calculation flow chart.
Detailed description of the invention
The step of a kind of safe operation of electric network risk integrative assessment method based on evaluation object of the present invention is as follows:
The first step, disposal data, build input database module;
Data in input database module include that device history statistical data, equipment run time limit data, meteorological data and operational monitoring data;Wherein device history statistical data, equipment operation time limit data and meteorological data are mainly used in the stoppage in transit probability of calculating equipment;Operational monitoring data are then the data that operation of power networks is relevant, for the risk indicator of analytical calculation evaluation object;
Second step, determines the object of needs assessment, builds evaluation object and selects module;
Complex characteristics due to electrical network itself, when therefore safe operation of electric network being carried out risk assessment, according to the needs of assessment target, first it is divided into some evaluation objects limited, that scope determines by certain principle, it is estimated the most respectively, the most again the assessment of comprehensive whole system;System is divided into different types of evaluation object, it is therefore an objective to facilitate the carrying out that risk assessment works, simplifies evaluation work, reduce evaluation work amount, it is to avoid omit, improve the accuracy to safe operation of electric network risk assessment;Electrical network evaluation object is divided into equipment, transformer station, operation of power networks state, from multi-angle, Multi-level Evaluation safe operation of electric network risk;
When carrying out contingency analysis, fault set to be initially formed, method large-scale electrical power system being formed to fault has DSMC and State enumeration method two kinds;For simple relatively glitch collection, can be enumerated by the method that state is enumerated;For the fault set that scale is bigger, choose fault set by the method for Monte-Carlo step.
Different evaluation objects are selected corresponding appraisal procedure by the 3rd step;
Evaluation object decides the content of assessment, mode and method;When evaluation object is equipment, the sequentially opened electric network element of method of N-1 is used to be estimated;When evaluation object is transformer station, the circuit in transformer station, chopper, the running status of transformator use DSMC to carry out stochastic simulation, then carry out connective identification;When evaluation object is operation of power networks state, the circuit in whole electrical network, transformator, the running status of electromotor pass through its randomness of Monte-carlo Simulation;
4th step, calculates the risk indicator of evaluation object, builds risk indicator computing module;
After being selected evaluation object and appraisal procedure by second step and the 3rd step, determining the value of different evaluation object risk, its size directly reflects the size of evaluation object risk;
Its risk assessment processes is:
(1) the input data of evaluation object;
(2) contingency analysis, its objective is the Line Flow after calculating one or more equipment failure and busbar voltage, to identify whether to cause circuit overload, voltage out-of-limit, bus isolated or system is separated into the problems such as isolated island;
(3) judge whether problem described in (2nd) step;If problem above occurs, then proceed to (4th) step;Otherwise, (2nd) step is returned;
(4) the grid event probability occurred is calculated;
(5) consequence that grid event is brought is calculated;
(6) calculating the risk of grid event, its size is the probability product with grid event consequence of grid event generation;
(7) judge whether that all forecast failures calculate complete;If completing, then proceed to (8th) step;Otherwise, (2nd) step is returned;
(8) result of risk indicator is exported;
Produced by the probability of grid event generation, grid event, consequence and grid event Risk Calculation are as follows:
The calculating of the probability P that grid event occurs:
The probability that grid event occurs can be calculated, from the input data of evaluation object, the probability that grid event occurs;The probability calculation formula that grid event occurs is:
P=F (X1,X2,X3)
In formula: P represents the probability that grid event occurs;
(X1,X2,X3) represent data in input database module respectively;
F, for calculating function, is defined as: sampling method/matrix method/four arithmetic operation;
Consequence calculation produced by grid event:
Some grid event there is electrical network be produced certain impact, as out of service in one or more electric network elements Branch Power Flow and node voltage may be caused to change;By introducing the impact on producing electrical network of these grid event of corresponding function evaluation.The Consequence calculation formula that grid event produces is:
S=F (Y1,Y2,Y3)
In formula: S is consequence produced by grid event:
(Y1,Y2,Y3) it is the several parameters reflecting grid event consequence respectively;
Grid event Risk Calculation:
Grid event Risk Calculation is according to consequence S produced by first two steps calculated grid event probability of happening P and grid event.Grid event Risk Calculation formula is:
R=F (P, S)
The Risk Results that grid event calculates, is stored in risk evaluation result library module by the 5th step.
5th step, it is judged that whether the risk indicator of evaluation object reaches convergent requirement;If reaching convergent requirement, then enter the 6th step, in preservation assessment result to risk evaluation result storehouse.
6th step, is saved in the assessment result of evaluation object respective risk index in risk evaluation result storehouse, builds risk evaluation result library module;
During the different object of assessment, the risk indicator chosen is different, and an object evaluation completes, and result stores to risk evaluation result storehouse;During the next object of assessment, it will initialize running environment;
7th step, it is judged that it is complete whether all objects are assessed;If assessing complete, proceed to the 8th step;Otherwise, return second step, next evaluation object is estimated;
8th step, the risk indicator result of analysis and evaluation object, provide the weak link of electrical network;
The risk indicator result calculated according to the first seven step, is ranked up the value-at-risk size of equipment in risk evaluation result storehouse, and value-at-risk is the biggest, represents that this equipment is the weak link of electrical network.

Claims (1)

1. a safe operation of electric network risk integrative assessment method based on evaluation object, is characterized in that, described method comprises the following steps:
The first step, disposal data, build input database module;
Data in input database module include that device history statistical data, equipment run time limit data, meteorological data and operational monitoring data;Wherein device history statistical data, equipment operation time limit data and meteorological data are mainly used in the stoppage in transit probability of calculating equipment;Operational monitoring data are then the data that operation of power networks is relevant, for the risk indicator of analytical calculation evaluation object;
Second step, determines the object of needs assessment, builds evaluation object and selects module;
Complex characteristics due to electrical network itself, when therefore safe operation of electric network being carried out risk assessment, according to the needs of assessment target, first it is divided into some evaluation objects limited, that scope determines by certain principle, it is estimated the most respectively, the most again the assessment of comprehensive whole system;System is divided into different types of evaluation object, it is therefore an objective to facilitate the carrying out that risk assessment works, simplifies evaluation work, reduce evaluation work amount, it is to avoid omit, improve the accuracy to safe operation of electric network risk assessment;Electrical network evaluation object is divided into equipment, transformer station, operation of power networks state, from multi-angle, Multi-level Evaluation safe operation of electric network risk;
When carrying out contingency analysis, fault set to be initially formed, method large-scale electrical power system being formed to fault has DSMC and State enumeration method two kinds;For simple relatively glitch collection, can be enumerated by the method that state is enumerated;For the fault set that scale is bigger, choose fault set by the method for Monte-Carlo step;
Different evaluation objects are selected corresponding appraisal procedure by the 3rd step;
Evaluation object decides the content of assessment, mode and method;When evaluation object is equipment, the sequentially opened electric network element of method of N-1 is used to be estimated;When evaluation object is transformer station, the circuit in transformer station, chopper, the running status of transformator use DSMC to carry out stochastic simulation, then carry out connective identification;When evaluation object is operation of power networks state, the circuit in whole electrical network, transformator, the running status of electromotor pass through its randomness of Monte-carlo Simulation;
4th step, calculates the risk indicator of evaluation object, builds risk indicator computing module;
After being selected evaluation object and appraisal procedure by second step and the 3rd step, determining the value of different evaluation object risk, its size directly reflects the size of evaluation object risk;
Its risk assessment processes is:
(1) the input data of evaluation object;
(2) contingency analysis, its objective is the Line Flow after calculating one or more equipment failure and busbar voltage, to identify whether to cause circuit overload, voltage out-of-limit, bus isolated or system is separated into islanding problem;
(3) judge whether problem described in (2nd) step;If problem above occurs, then proceed to (4th) step;Otherwise, (2nd) step is returned;
(4) the grid event probability occurred is calculated;
(5) consequence that grid event is brought is calculated;
(6) calculating the risk of grid event, its size is the probability product with grid event consequence of grid event generation;
(7) judge whether that all forecast failures calculate complete;If completing, then proceed to (8th) step;Otherwise, (2nd) step is returned;
(8) result of risk indicator is exported;
Produced by the probability of grid event generation, grid event, consequence and grid event Risk Calculation are as follows:
The calculating of the probability P that grid event occurs:
The probability that grid event occurs can be calculated, from the input data of evaluation object, the probability that grid event occurs;The probability calculation formula that grid event occurs is:
P=F (X1,X2,X3)
In formula: P represents the probability that grid event occurs;
(X1,X2,X3) represent data in input database module respectively;
F, for calculating function, is defined as: sampling method/matrix method/four arithmetic operation;
Consequence calculation produced by grid event:
The meeting that occurs of some grid event produces certain impact to electrical network, and described grid event is that one or more electric network element is out of service may cause Branch Power Flow and node voltage to change;By introducing the impact on producing electrical network of these grid event of corresponding function evaluation;The Consequence calculation formula that grid event produces is:
S=F (Y1,Y2,Y3)
In formula: S is consequence produced by grid event:
(Y1,Y2,Y3) it is the several parameters reflecting grid event consequence respectively;
Grid event Risk Calculation:
Grid event Risk Calculation is according to consequence S produced by first two steps calculated grid event probability of happening P and grid event;Grid event Risk Calculation formula is:
R=F (P, S)
The Risk Results that grid event calculates, is stored in risk evaluation result library module by the 5th step;
5th step, it is judged that whether the risk indicator of evaluation object reaches convergent requirement;If reaching convergent requirement, then enter the 6th step, in preservation assessment result to risk evaluation result storehouse;
6th step, is saved in the assessment result of evaluation object respective risk index in risk evaluation result storehouse, builds risk evaluation result library module;
During the different object of assessment, the risk indicator chosen is different, and an object evaluation completes, and result stores to risk evaluation result storehouse;During the next object of assessment, it will initialize running environment;
7th step, it is judged that it is complete whether all objects are assessed;If assessing complete, proceed to the 8th step;Otherwise, return second step, next evaluation object is estimated;
8th step, the risk indicator result of analysis and evaluation object, provide the weak link of electrical network;The risk indicator result calculated according to the first seven step, is ranked up the value-at-risk size of equipment in risk evaluation result storehouse, and value-at-risk is the biggest, represents that this equipment is the weak link of electrical network.
CN201310509032.XA 2013-10-25 2013-10-25 A kind of safe operation of electric network risk integrative assessment method based on evaluation object CN103606109B (en)

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