CN103606109A - Comprehensive power grid operation safety risk evaluation method based on evaluation objects - Google Patents
Comprehensive power grid operation safety risk evaluation method based on evaluation objects Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
Provided is a comprehensive power grid operation safety risk evaluation method based on evaluation objects. The method comprises the following steps: sorting data and constructing an input database module; determining objects needing to be evaluated and constructing an evaluation object selection module; selecting corresponding evaluation methods for different evaluation objects; calculating risk indexes of the evaluation objects and constructing a risk index calculation module; storing evaluation results of the corresponding risk indexes of the evaluation objects in a risk evaluation result base and constructing a risk evaluation result base module; and analyzing risk index results of the evaluation objects and determining a weak link of a power grid. Basic data of power grid operation safety risk is analyzed and processed in a centralized mode according to different risk evaluation objects. A risk factor analysis is made on different evaluation objects, risk evaluation indexes of different objects are determined and calculated, and the weak link of the power grid is analyzed. The purpose of comprehensive power grid operation safety risk evaluation based on evaluation objects is achieved, and a theoretical basis is provided for safe operation of the power grid.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to Study of Risk Evaluation Analysis for Power System field, be specifically related to a kind of safe operation of electric network risk comprehensive estimation method.
Background technology
Safe operation of electric network risk assessment is the important channel of understanding safe operation of electric network situation, by risk assessment, can realize the security of operation risk that the different objects of assessment face.
The main still Deterministic Methods of current Operation of Electric Systems security study method, less consideration equipment randomness out of service; Existing is mainly for some concrete research object on a small quantity about Operation of Electric Systems security risk assessment research, different to the disposal route of failure effect, and does not also form a comparatively complete risk integrated estimation system at present.
Current, propelling along with power market reform degree, the change of management organization and new member participate in electricity market, make structure and the operational management of electrical network that great change all occur, unmanageable uncertain factor and the impact of electrical network is further deepened in electric public service, makes the safe and stable operation Challenge of electric system.Consider the random nature of a large amount of grid event, in Practical Project, take into account various uncertain factor assessment power grid risks very necessary.Therefore, the present invention proposes the safe operation of electric network risk comprehensive estimation method based on evaluation object.
The basic definition of Operation of Electric Systems risk assessment: the electrical network hidden danger existing that is in operation is assessed, the uncertain factor in other words electric system being faced, provide the comprehensive measurement of possibility and seriousness, find out operating electric system for the influence degree of disturbance event, simultaneously by excavating electric network element reliability service potentiality, to guarantee whole power system security, reliability service.The fundamental purpose of operation of power networks risk assessment is to weigh the risk level of operation of power networks and the consequence that may cause by risk indicator.
Summary of the invention
The object of the present invention is to provide a kind of safe operation of electric network risk comprehensive estimation method based on evaluation object, based on different evaluation objects, from the angle assessment safe operation of electric network risk of Risk Theory.The problem that the present invention solves less consideration grid event randomness that current assessment safe operation of electric network exists and evaluation object is comparatively single, do not form complete evaluating system.
The technical solution adopted for the present invention to solve the technical problems is: first build the input database module of object-based safe operation of electric network risk evaluating system, comprise historical statistical data, equipment operation time limit data, weather data and the operational monitoring data of basic equipment; Secondly determine operation risk assessment object, comprise altogether three objects: equipment, transformer station, operation of power networks state; And then operation risk index is calculated, application submodule 4, submodule 5, submodule 6 calculate corresponding safe operation of electric network risk indicator; Finally the risk evaluation result of different objects is stored in submodule 8, submodule 9 and submodule 10.The present invention carries out collective analysis and processing according to different risk assessment objects by the basic data of safe operation of electric network risk; Different evaluation objects is carried out to risk Factor Analysis, determine and calculated the risk assessment index of different objects, the weak link of electrical network is analyzed; Realized the object of the safe operation of electric network risk comprehensive assessment based on evaluation object, for the safe operation of electrical network provides certain theoretical foundation.
To achieve these goals, the step of a kind of safe operation of electric network risk comprehensive estimation method based on evaluation object of the present invention is as follows:
The first step, disposal data, builds input database module;
Data in input database module comprise device history statistics, equipment operation time limit data, weather data and operational monitoring data; Wherein device history statistics, equipment operation time limit data and weather data are mainly used in the stoppage in transit probability of computing equipment; Operational monitoring data are the data that operation of power networks is relevant, for the risk indicator of analytical calculation evaluation object;
Second step, determines the object that needs assessment, builds evaluation object and selects module;
Complex characteristics due to electrical network itself, while therefore safe operation of electric network being carried out to risk assessment, according to the needs of assessment objective, first by certain principle, be divided into some evaluation objects limited, that scope is definite, then assess respectively the last assessment of comprehensive whole system again; System divides, be dissimilar evaluation object, object is the carrying out that facilitates risk assessment work, simplifies evaluation work, reduces evaluation work amount, avoids omitting, and improves the accuracy to safe operation of electric network risk assessment; Electrical network evaluation object is divided into equipment, transformer station, operation of power networks state, from multi-angle, Multi-level Evaluation safe operation of electric network risk;
While carrying out contingency analysis, first form fault collection, the method that forms fault for large-scale electrical power system has two kinds of Monte Carlo method and state enumerative techniques; For simply, compared with glitch collection, the method that can enumerate by state is enumerated; For the larger fault collection of scale, the method for sampling by Monte Carlo is chosen fault collection.
The 3rd step, selects corresponding appraisal procedure to different evaluation objects;
Evaluation object is determining content, mode and the method for assessment; When evaluation object is equipment, the method for employing N-1 sequentially disconnects electric network element and assesses; When the running status that evaluation object is circuit in Shi， transformer station of transformer station, isolating switch, transformer, use Monte Carlo method to carry out stochastic simulation, then carry out connectedness and identify; When evaluation object is operation of power networks state, the running status of the circuit in whole electrical network, transformer, generator is by its randomness of Monte-carlo Simulation;
The 4th step, the risk indicator of calculating evaluation object, builds a minute dangerous index computing module;
After second step and the selected evaluation object of the 3rd step and appraisal procedure, determine the value of different evaluation object risks, its size directly reflects the size of evaluation object risk;
Its risk assessment process is:
(1) the input data of evaluation object;
(2) contingency analysis, its objective is Line Flow and the busbar voltage calculated after one or more equipment failures, to identify, whether causes that circuit overload, voltage out-of-limit, bus isolate or system is separated into the problems such as isolated island;
(3) judge whether to occur problem described in (2) step; If there is above problem, proceed to (4) step; Otherwise, return to (2) step;
(4) calculate the grid event probability occurring;
(5) calculate the consequence that grid event is brought;
(6) calculate the risk of grid event, its size is the probability of grid event generation and the product of grid event consequence;
(7) judge whether that all forecast failures calculate complete; If complete, proceed to (8) step; Otherwise, return to (2) step;
(8) result of output risk indicator;
The probability that grid event occurs, consequence and the grid event Risk Calculation that grid event produces are as follows:
The probability that grid event occurs
calculating:
The probability that grid event occurs can, from the input data of evaluation object, calculate the probability that grid event occurs; The probability calculation formula that grid event occurs is:
In formula:
represent the probability that grid event occurs;
represent respectively data in input database module;
for computing function, be defined as: sampling/matrix method/arithmetic;
The Consequence calculation that grid event produces:
The generation meeting of some grid event produces certain impact to electrical network, as out of servicely in one or more electric network elements may cause that Branch Power Flow and node voltage change; The present invention is by introducing these grid event of corresponding function evaluation to producing the impact of electrical network.The Consequence calculation formula that grid event produces is:
In formula:
the consequence producing for grid event:
Grid event Risk Calculation:
The grid event probability of happening that grid event Risk Calculation calculates according to first two steps
the consequence producing with grid event
.Grid event Risk Calculation formula is:
The risk result that grid event calculates, deposits in risk evaluation result library module by the 5th step.
The 5th step, judges whether the risk indicator of evaluation object reaches convergent requirement; If reach convergent requirement, enter the 6th step, preserve assessment result to risk evaluation result storehouse.
The 6th step, is kept at the assessment result of evaluation object respective risk index in risk evaluation result storehouse, builds risk evaluation result library module;
While assessing different object, the risk indicator of choosing is different, and an object has been assessed, and result store is to risk evaluation result storehouse; While assessing next object, will initialization running environment;
The 7th step, judges whether all objects are assessed complete; If assess completely, proceed to the 8th step; Otherwise, return to second step, next evaluation object is assessed;
The 8th step, the risk indicator result of analysis and evaluation object, provides the weak link of electrical network;
The risk indicator result of calculating according to the first seven step, sorts to the value-at-risk size of equipment in risk evaluation result storehouse, and value-at-risk is larger, represents that this equipment is the weak link of electrical network.
The invention has the beneficial effects as follows: the present invention has considered the random nature of grid event, and the evaluation object based on different, to at present existingly about Operation of Electric Systems security risk assessment aspect research, be arranged improvement on a small quantity, formed a comparatively complete risk integrated estimation system.The electrical network hidden danger existing that is in operation is assessed, found out operating electric system for the influence degree of disturbance event, guarantee whole power system security, reliability service.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the evaluating system structure schematic diagram that a kind of safe operation of electric network risk comprehensive estimation method based on evaluation object is constructed;
Fig. 2 is risk assessment process flow diagram;
Fig. 3 is risk indicator calculation flow chart.
Embodiment
The step of a kind of safe operation of electric network risk comprehensive estimation method based on evaluation object of the present invention is as follows:
The first step, disposal data, builds input database module;
Data in input database module comprise device history statistics, equipment operation time limit data, weather data and operational monitoring data; Wherein device history statistics, equipment operation time limit data and weather data are mainly used in the stoppage in transit probability of computing equipment; Operational monitoring data are the data that operation of power networks is relevant, for the risk indicator of analytical calculation evaluation object;
Second step, determines the object that needs assessment, builds evaluation object and selects module;
Complex characteristics due to electrical network itself, while therefore safe operation of electric network being carried out to risk assessment, according to the needs of assessment objective, first by certain principle, be divided into some evaluation objects limited, that scope is definite, then assess respectively the last assessment of comprehensive whole system again; System divides, be dissimilar evaluation object, object is the carrying out that facilitates risk assessment work, simplifies evaluation work, reduces evaluation work amount, avoids omitting, and improves the accuracy to safe operation of electric network risk assessment; Electrical network evaluation object is divided into equipment, transformer station, operation of power networks state, from multi-angle, Multi-level Evaluation safe operation of electric network risk;
While carrying out contingency analysis, first form fault collection, the method that forms fault for large-scale electrical power system has two kinds of Monte Carlo method and state enumerative techniques; For simply, compared with glitch collection, the method that can enumerate by state is enumerated; For the larger fault collection of scale, the method for sampling by Monte Carlo is chosen fault collection.
The 3rd step, selects corresponding appraisal procedure to different evaluation objects;
Evaluation object is determining content, mode and the method for assessment; When evaluation object is equipment, the method for employing N-1 sequentially disconnects electric network element and assesses; When the running status that evaluation object is circuit in Shi， transformer station of transformer station, isolating switch, transformer, use Monte Carlo method to carry out stochastic simulation, then carry out connectedness and identify; When evaluation object is operation of power networks state, the running status of the circuit in whole electrical network, transformer, generator is by its randomness of Monte-carlo Simulation;
The 4th step, the risk indicator of calculating evaluation object, builds a minute dangerous index computing module;
After second step and the selected evaluation object of the 3rd step and appraisal procedure, determine the value of different evaluation object risks, its size directly reflects the size of evaluation object risk;
Its risk assessment process is:
(1) the input data of evaluation object;
(2) contingency analysis, its objective is Line Flow and the busbar voltage calculated after one or more equipment failures, to identify, whether causes that circuit overload, voltage out-of-limit, bus isolate or system is separated into the problems such as isolated island;
(3) judge whether to occur problem described in (2) step; If there is above problem, proceed to (4) step; Otherwise, return to (2) step;
(4) calculate the grid event probability occurring;
(5) calculate the consequence that grid event is brought;
(6) calculate the risk of grid event, its size is the probability of grid event generation and the product of grid event consequence;
(7) judge whether that all forecast failures calculate complete; If complete, proceed to (8) step; Otherwise, return to (2) step;
(8) result of output risk indicator;
The probability that grid event occurs, consequence and the grid event Risk Calculation that grid event produces are as follows:
The probability that grid event occurs
calculating:
The probability that grid event occurs can, from the input data of evaluation object, calculate the probability that grid event occurs; The probability calculation formula that grid event occurs is:
In formula:
represent the probability that grid event occurs;
represent respectively data in input database module;
The Consequence calculation that grid event produces:
The generation meeting of some grid event produces certain impact to electrical network, as out of servicely in one or more electric network elements may cause that Branch Power Flow and node voltage change; The present invention is by introducing these grid event of corresponding function evaluation to producing the impact of electrical network.The Consequence calculation formula that grid event produces is:
In formula:
the consequence producing for grid event:
for reflecting respectively several parameters of grid event consequence;
Grid event Risk Calculation:
The grid event probability of happening that grid event Risk Calculation calculates according to first two steps
the consequence producing with grid event
.Grid event Risk Calculation formula is:
The risk result that grid event calculates, deposits in risk evaluation result library module by the 5th step.
The 5th step, judges whether the risk indicator of evaluation object reaches convergent requirement; If reach convergent requirement, enter the 6th step, preserve assessment result to risk evaluation result storehouse.
The 6th step, is kept at the assessment result of evaluation object respective risk index in risk evaluation result storehouse, builds risk evaluation result library module;
While assessing different object, the risk indicator of choosing is different, and an object has been assessed, and result store is to risk evaluation result storehouse; While assessing next object, will initialization running environment;
The 7th step, judges whether all objects are assessed complete; If assess completely, proceed to the 8th step; Otherwise, return to second step, next evaluation object is assessed;
The 8th step, the risk indicator result of analysis and evaluation object, provides the weak link of electrical network;
The risk indicator result of calculating according to the first seven step, sorts to the value-at-risk size of equipment in risk evaluation result storehouse, and value-at-risk is larger, represents that this equipment is the weak link of electrical network.
Claims (1)
1. the safe operation of electric network risk comprehensive estimation method based on evaluation object, is characterized in that, described method comprises the following steps:
The first step, disposal data, builds input database module;
Data in input database module comprise device history statistics, equipment operation time limit data, weather data and operational monitoring data; Wherein device history statistics, equipment operation time limit data and weather data are mainly used in the stoppage in transit probability of computing equipment; Operational monitoring data are the data that operation of power networks is relevant, for the risk indicator of analytical calculation evaluation object;
Second step, determines the object that needs assessment, builds evaluation object and selects module;
Complex characteristics due to electrical network itself, while therefore safe operation of electric network being carried out to risk assessment, according to the needs of assessment objective, first by certain principle, be divided into some evaluation objects limited, that scope is definite, then assess respectively the last assessment of comprehensive whole system again; System divides, be dissimilar evaluation object, object is the carrying out that facilitates risk assessment work, simplifies evaluation work, reduces evaluation work amount, avoids omitting, and improves the accuracy to safe operation of electric network risk assessment; Electrical network evaluation object is divided into equipment, transformer station, operation of power networks state, from multi-angle, Multi-level Evaluation safe operation of electric network risk;
While carrying out contingency analysis, first form fault collection, the method that forms fault for large-scale electrical power system has two kinds of Monte Carlo method and state enumerative techniques; For simply, compared with glitch collection, the method that can enumerate by state is enumerated; For the larger fault collection of scale, the method for sampling by Monte Carlo is chosen fault collection;
The 3rd step, selects corresponding appraisal procedure to different evaluation objects;
Evaluation object is determining content, mode and the method for assessment; When evaluation object is equipment, the method for employing N-1 sequentially disconnects electric network element and assesses; When the running status that evaluation object is circuit in Shi， transformer station of transformer station, isolating switch, transformer, use Monte Carlo method to carry out stochastic simulation, then carry out connectedness and identify; When evaluation object is operation of power networks state, the running status of the circuit in whole electrical network, transformer, generator is by its randomness of Monte-carlo Simulation;
The 4th step, the risk indicator of calculating evaluation object, builds a minute dangerous index computing module;
After second step and the selected evaluation object of the 3rd step and appraisal procedure, determine the value of different evaluation object risks, its size directly reflects the size of evaluation object risk;
Its risk assessment process is:
(1) the input data of evaluation object;
(2) contingency analysis, its objective is Line Flow and the busbar voltage calculated after one or more equipment failures, to identify, whether causes that circuit overload, voltage out-of-limit, bus isolate or system is separated into the problems such as isolated island;
(3) judge whether to occur problem described in (2) step; If there is above problem, proceed to (4) step; Otherwise, return to (2) step;
(4) calculate the grid event probability occurring;
(5) calculate the consequence that grid event is brought;
(6) calculate the risk of grid event, its size is the probability of grid event generation and the product of grid event consequence;
(7) judge whether that all forecast failures calculate complete; If complete, proceed to (8) step; Otherwise, return to (2) step;
(8) result of output risk indicator;
The probability that grid event occurs, consequence and the grid event Risk Calculation that grid event produces are as follows:
The probability that grid event occurs
calculating:
The probability that grid event occurs can, from the input data of evaluation object, calculate the probability that grid event occurs; The probability calculation formula that grid event occurs is:
In formula:
represent the probability that grid event occurs;
The Consequence calculation that grid event produces:
The generation meeting of some grid event produces certain impact to electrical network, as out of servicely in one or more electric network elements may cause that Branch Power Flow and node voltage change; The present invention is by introducing these grid event of corresponding function evaluation to producing the impact of electrical network;
The Consequence calculation formula that grid event produces is:
In formula:
the consequence producing for grid event:
Grid event Risk Calculation:
The grid event probability of happening that grid event Risk Calculation calculates according to first two steps
the consequence producing with grid event
;
Grid event Risk Calculation formula is:
The risk result that grid event calculates, deposits in risk evaluation result library module by the 5th step;
The 5th step, judges whether the risk indicator of evaluation object reaches convergent requirement; If reach convergent requirement, enter the 6th step, preserve assessment result to risk evaluation result storehouse;
The 6th step, is kept at the assessment result of evaluation object respective risk index in risk evaluation result storehouse, builds risk evaluation result library module;
While assessing different object, the risk indicator of choosing is different, and an object has been assessed, and result store is to risk evaluation result storehouse; While assessing next object, will initialization running environment;
The 7th step, judges whether all objects are assessed complete; If assess completely, proceed to the 8th step; Otherwise, return to second step, next evaluation object is assessed;
The 8th step, the risk indicator result of analysis and evaluation object, provides the weak link of electrical network;
The risk indicator result of calculating according to the first seven step, sorts to the value-at-risk size of equipment in risk evaluation result storehouse, and value-at-risk is larger, represents that this equipment is the weak link of electrical network.
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| CN115099560A (en) * | 2022-05-16 | 2022-09-23 | 中国安全生产科学研究院 | Risk degree judgment and evaluation method and system for inherent risks |
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