CN104166939A - Power distribution network operation risk early warning method based on scene analysis - Google Patents

Power distribution network operation risk early warning method based on scene analysis Download PDF

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CN104166939A
CN104166939A CN201410280713.8A CN201410280713A CN104166939A CN 104166939 A CN104166939 A CN 104166939A CN 201410280713 A CN201410280713 A CN 201410280713A CN 104166939 A CN104166939 A CN 104166939A
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sight
risk
distribution network
power distribution
factor
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刘洪�
朱振环
马康
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Tianjin University
State Grid Corp of China SGCC
China Electric Power Research Institute Co Ltd CEPRI
State Grid Shandong Electric Power Co Ltd
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Tianjin University
State Grid Corp of China SGCC
China Electric Power Research Institute Co Ltd CEPRI
State Grid Shandong Electric Power Co Ltd
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Publication of CN104166939A publication Critical patent/CN104166939A/en
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Abstract

The invention discloses a power distribution network operation risk early warning method based on scene analysis. The method includes the steps of: investigating historical operation conditions of the power distribution network, determining risk scene demarcation, and forming a plurality of alternative scene sets as future scene set; for collected power distribution network operation data, determining the value of each scene factor; performing scene risk calculation; and according to a scene risk calculation result, performing power distribution network operation risk early warning. Compared with the prior art, the power distribution network operation risk early warning method based on scene analysis can perform scientific early warning on power distribution network operation risks under the influence of various complicated factors, thereby achieving a beneficial guiding function for construction and operation of the power distribution network.

Description

Power distribution network operation risk method for early warning based on scenario analysis
Technical field
The invention belongs to the field of distribution network of electric power system, particularly relate to a kind of power distribution network operation risk assessment method.
Background technology
The safe operation of power distribution network is the important ring of whole electric power netting safe running, is the key link that improves at present electric power system operation level.There is statistical data to show: nearly 80% power outage is caused by distribution system fault.Therefore, thereby the power distribution network potential risk facing in service is carried out accurate early warning, found out weak link and improved and improve Supply Security, become current problem demanding prompt solution.
The power distribution network impact that will be subject to the factors such as electrical network self-condition and meteorological condition in service, the early warning of power distribution network operation risk is exactly to use the venture analysis of science and appraisal procedure, and the potential loss of electrical network under effect of complicate factor (loss of outage of loading) is carried out to accurate evaluation.
At present, the operation risk analysis for force device, network and entire system, has been widely used in the fields such as Power System Reliability, Safety Operation Analysis and Electric Power Network Planning.But above-mentioned analytical technology directly applies to the early warning of power distribution network operation risk and also has certain difficulty, main cause is following 3 aspects: the one, and risk indicator mainly, towards assessment power distribution network operation present situation, is considered not enough to following Risk-warning; The 2nd, not enough to the consideration of electrical network irregular operating mode, index system is comprehensive not; The 3rd, the risk indicator proposing cannot be for the hazard ratio of risk case under the different operating modes of electrical network.
Summary of the invention
The problem existing in order to overcome above-mentioned prior art, the present invention proposes a kind of intelligent distribution network overall evaluation system and method, a set of comparatively science, reasonable, comprehensive appraisement system, be intelligent distribution network System of Comprehensive Evaluation: in macroscopic aspect, intelligent development level and the actual benefit of scientific evaluation power distribution network; In microcosmic point, analyze running status and the weak link of identification electrical network, thereby instruct the development plan of intelligent distribution network, realize the excellent operation management of becoming of electrical network.
The present invention proposes a kind of power distribution network operation risk method for early warning based on scenario analysis, the method comprises the following steps:
The history run situation of step 1, investigation power distribution network, determine that risky situation defines, form some alternative sight collection as following sight collection, related following sight collection comprises time sight, space sight, Nature condition condition and the combination of totally four kinds of sight factors of power distribution network operation sight of power distribution network, and comprehensively the expressed intact formula of the sight collection of each sight factor is:
X＝f(T，L，N，O)
Wherein, X represents following sight collection, and T, L, N, O represent respectively time sight, space sight, Nature condition and power distribution network operation sight;
Step 2, for the power distribution network service data of collecting, determine the value of each sight factor;
Step 3, the sight Risk Calculation of carrying out, sight risk comprises degree of unavailability sight risk, dead electricity amount sight risk, loses load sight risk, overload sight risk and voltage out-of-limit sight risk; Different following sights is concentrated, and the probability of every kind of adverse events generation is P (X i), the consequence causing is S (X i).There is following equation expression
(1) degree of unavailability sight risk, expression formula is:
R 1＝∑P 1(X i)×S 1(X i)＝∑n i*k ek oλ i*k tk lr i/(∑n i*8760)
Wherein, k tfor time sight factor, k lfor space sight factor, k efor environment sight factor, k ofor power distribution network operation sight factor, n inumber of users for each load point;
(2) dead electricity amount sight risk, expression formula is:
R 2＝∑P 2(X i)×S 2(X i)＝∑k ek oλ i*k tk lr iL i
Wherein, L ireal-time Load for each load point;
(3) lose load sight risk, expression formula is:
R 3＝∑P 3(X i)×S 3(X i)＝∑k ek oλ i*k tk lL i
(4) overload sight risk, expression formula is:
R 4＝∑P 4(X i)×S 4(X i)＝∑k ek oλ i*k tk l?L iS 4
Probability of happening P 4(X i) major influence factors be nature influence factor and operation of power networks sight.Loss S 4with the relation of overload threshold value V be: when 0≤load factor≤V, S 4=0; When load factor > V, S 4=(load factor/V) 2.
(5) voltage out-of-limit sight risk, expression formula is:
R 5＝∑P 5(X i)×S 5(X i)＝∑k ek oλ i*k tk lS 5
Probability of happening P 5(X i) major influence factors be nature influence factor and operation of power networks sight;
Loss S 5with rated voltage U nrelation be: work as 0.93*U n≤ deviation maximum voltage U≤1.07*U n, S 5=0; As deviation maximum voltage U < 0.93*U ntime, S 5=(U n/ U) 2or deviation maximum voltage U > 1.07*U ntime, S 5=(U/U n) 2; And
Step 4, according to sight Risk Calculation result, carry out the early warning of power distribution network operation risk.
Compared with prior art, the present invention can carry out science early warning to the power distribution network operation risk under the impact of Various Complex factor, for construction and the operation of power distribution network, can play useful directive function.
Accompanying drawing explanation
The power distribution network operation risk method for early warning framework of Fig. 1 based on scenario analysis.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, the specific embodiment of the invention is described in further detail.
Power distribution network operation risk method for early warning based on scenario analysis of the present invention is exactly to carry out process analysis procedure analysis and outcome evaluation to each sight that may occur the future of adverse events, finally provides the further trend model of this adverse events.In algorithm of the present invention, using each sight as a specific condition, and under each specific condition, the interaction of each factor of process internal system can obtain corresponding result.All these possible sights relevant with adverse events are integrated, dope the following sight of this distribution system, namely the operation risk of power distribution network.
The present invention is divided into two large divisions: power distribution network risky situation defines with sight risk and expresses.It is the sight collection of determining that research power distribution network may occur future that risky situation defines, and this is the process of a following sight of preview; It is by extracting being used for describing the index of risk that sight risk is expressed, and the situation of these indexs in following sight is carried out after comprehensive assessment obtaining to result, and by this result the result as venture analysis.
One, power distribution network risky situation defines
Specifically, the power distribution network sight facing in service comprises time sight, space sight, Nature condition and operation of power networks sight, and every kind of sight has the different modes of action for power distribution network operation risk.Comprehensive above four class sights can build complete following sight collection.
1, time sight: time sight is divided into the date three kinds of situations of powering general work day, festivals or holidays, special guarantor.Power distribution network adverse events in service occurs in festivals or holidays or special guarantor powers period, and the loss causing will obviously be greater than the situation of general work day.
2, space sight: space sight is divided into midtown, urban district, cities and towns and four kinds, rural area situation.
3, Nature condition condition: Nature condition is divided into fine weather, thunderstorm gale, high temperature, dense fog and the five kinds of situations of freezing.There are some researches show, under bad weather condition, the possibility that distribution network failure occurs will significantly promote.
4, power distribution network operation sight: operation of power networks sight is divided into normal operation, scheduled overhaul, hotline maintenance, user's side fault, five kinds of situations of associated circuitry maintenance.
The combination that the following sight collection of power distribution network operation is above-mentioned four kinds of sight factors, a complete following sight collection can be expressed as:
X＝f(T，L，N，O)
Wherein, X represents following sight collection, and T, L, N, O represent respectively time sight, space sight, Nature condition and power distribution network operation sight; The f here represents the syntagmatic of above four kinds of sights.Each sight defines respectively several situation above, decoupling zero mutually between the various situations of four sights.The effect situation of the sight set pair power distribution network that each is complete is embodied in the expression of sight risk, refers to five risk indicator computing formula below.
Following sight collection not only comprises a series of states that may occur, also comprise the original state of each key element in system and the process prescription that event is developed to end-state by original state, and the state that may occur is the net result of original state after experience evolution.First be the original state X setting 0.Original state X 0mainly refer to the situation of the current operation of power distribution network, these situations should be considered to be known, do not have any enchancement factor.Next is that evolution is described.The process of power distribution network operation risk development is not only in close relations with original state, and is subject to the impact of various uncertain factors.The conversion of these uncertain factor assignment operation of power networks sight collection.
Two, power distribution network sight risk is expressed
It is to determine that by rational approach following sight concentrates every kind of corresponding some parameter of situation that sight risk is expressed, and considers these parameters, obtains the result of venture analysis.The result of venture analysis is not the value-at-risk of single dimension, and should from multi-angle react power distribution network potential loss may and degree.
The operating adverse events of power distribution network not only comprises various power-off events, also comprises various abnormal operating conditions, as overload and voltage out-of-limit.When assessment power-off event, the index of employing is degree of unavailability sight risk, dead electricity amount sight risk and mistake load sight risk, and in these three indexs, loss function has certain physical significance, amount number percent, MWh and MW/ while representing respectively.When assessment abnormal operating condition, the index of employing is that overload sight risk and voltage are got over line sight risk, and in these two indexs, loss function is by the distortion order of severity of expression and normal condition.
Different following sights is concentrated, and the probability of every kind of adverse events generation is P (X i), the consequence causing is S (X i).There is following equation expression:
1) degree of unavailability sight risk indicator is calculated
Degree of unavailability sight risk reflects the weighting degree of unavailability of power distribution network in different sights, and expression formula is:
R 1＝∑P 1(X i)×S 1(X i)＝∑n i*k ek oλ i*k tk lr i/(∑n i*8760)
Wherein, k tfor time sight factor, k lfor space sight factor, k efor environment sight factor, k ofor power distribution network operation sight factor, n inumber of users for each load point.
2) dead electricity amount sight risk indicator is calculated
Dead electricity amount sight risk reflects the weighting dead electricity amount of power distribution network in different sights, and expression formula is:
R 2＝∑P 2(X i)×S 2(X i)＝∑k ek oλ i*k tk lr iL i
Wherein, L ireal-time Load for each load point.
3) losing load sight risk indicator calculates
Lose the power that load sight risk reflects the weighting mistake load of power distribution network in different sights, expression formula is:
R 3＝∑P 3(X i)×S 3(X i)＝∑k ek oλ i*k tk lL i
4) overload sight risk indicator is calculated
Overload sight risk reflects the overload risk of power distribution network element in different sights, and expression formula is:
R 4＝∑P 4(X i)×S 4(X i)＝∑k ek oλ i*k tk l?L iS 4
Probability of happening P 4(X i) major influence factors be nature influence factor and operation of power networks sight.Loss S 4with the relation of overload threshold value V be: when 0≤load factor≤V, S 4=0; When load factor > V, S 4=(load factor/V) 2.
5) voltage out-of-limit sight risk indicator is calculated
Voltage out-of-limit sight risk reflects the voltage out-of-limit risk of power distribution network node in different sights, and expression formula is:
R 5＝∑P 5(X i)×S 5(X i)＝∑k ek oλ i*k tk lS 5
Probability of happening P 5(X i) major influence factors be nature influence factor and operation of power networks sight.Loss S 5with rated voltage U nrelation be: work as 0.93*U n≤ deviation maximum voltage U≤1.07*U n, S 5=0; As deviation maximum voltage U < 0.93*U ntime, S 5=(U n/ U) 2or deviation maximum voltage U > 1.07*U ntime, S 5=(U/U n) 2.
The present invention is in conjunction with the theory of scenario analysis and power grid risk assessment, set up the power distribution network operation risk method for early warning based on scenario analysis, first on affecting the factor of power distribution network operation risk, carry out risky situation and define, then set up rational risk indicator and carry out the expression of sight risk.
Comprise the following steps specifically:
(1) the history run situation of investigation power distribution network, determines that risky situation defines, and forms some alternative sight collection;
(2), for the power distribution network service data of collecting, determine the value of each sight factor.
(3) input power distribution network real-time running data, extracts sight collection, carries out risk and expresses the calculating of middle finger target.
(4) according to result of calculation, carry out the early warning of power distribution network operation risk.

Claims (2)

1. the power distribution network operation risk method for early warning based on scenario analysis, is characterized in that, the method comprises the following steps:
The history run situation of step 1, investigation power distribution network, determine that risky situation defines, form some alternative sight collection as following sight collection, related following sight collection comprises time sight, space sight, Nature condition condition and the combination of totally four kinds of sight factors of power distribution network operation sight of power distribution network, and comprehensively the expressed intact formula of the sight collection of each sight factor is:
X＝f(T，L，N，O)
Wherein, X represents following sight collection, and T, L, N, O represent respectively time sight, space sight, Nature condition and power distribution network operation sight;
Step 2, for the power distribution network service data of collecting, determine the value of each sight factor;
Step 3, the sight Risk Calculation of carrying out, sight risk comprises degree of unavailability sight risk, dead electricity amount sight risk, loses load sight risk, overload sight risk and voltage out-of-limit sight risk; Different following sights is concentrated, and the probability of every kind of adverse events generation is P (X i), the consequence causing is S (X i).There is following equation expression
(1) degree of unavailability sight risk, expression formula is:
R 1＝∑P 1(X i)×S 1(X i)＝∑n i*k ek oλ i*k tk lr i/(∑n i*8760)
Wherein, k tfor time sight factor, k lfor space sight factor, k efor environment sight factor, k ofor power distribution network operation sight factor, n inumber of users for each load point;
(2) dead electricity amount sight risk, expression formula is:
R 2＝∑P 2(x i)×S 2(X i)＝∑k ek oλ i*k tk lr iL i
Wherein, L ireal-time Load for each load point;
(3) lose load sight risk, expression formula is:
R 3＝∑P 3(X i)×S 3(X i)＝∑k ek oλ i*k tk lL i
(4) overload sight risk, expression formula is:
R 4＝∑P 4(X i)×S 4(X i)＝∑k ek oλ i*k tk lL iS 4
Probability of happening P 4(X i) major influence factors be nature influence factor and operation of power networks sight.Loss S 4with the relation of overload threshold value V be: when 0≤load factor≤V, S 4=0; When load factor > V, S 4=(load factor/V) 2.
(5) voltage out-of-limit sight risk, expression formula is:
R 5＝∑P 5(X i)×S 5(X i)＝∑k ek oλ i*k tk lS 5
Probability of happening P 5(X i) major influence factors be nature influence factor and operation of power networks sight;
Loss S 5with rated voltage U nrelation be: work as 0.93*U n≤ deviation maximum voltage U≤1.07*U n, S 5=0; As deviation maximum voltage U < 0.93*U ntime, S 5=(U n/ U) 2or during deviation maximum voltage U > 1.07*UN, S 5=(U/U n) 2; And
Step 4, according to sight Risk Calculation result, carry out the early warning of power distribution network operation risk.
2. the power distribution network operation risk method for early warning based on scenario analysis as claimed in claim 1, it is characterized in that, described following sight collection not only comprises a series of states that may occur, also comprise the original state of each key element in system and the process prescription that event is developed to end-state by original state, and the state that may occur is the net result of original state after experience evolution.
CN201410280713.8A 2014-06-20 2014-06-20 Power distribution network operation risk early warning method based on scene analysis Pending CN104166939A (en)

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CN106203799A (en) * 2016-07-01 2016-12-07 中国南方电网有限责任公司 A kind of method of equipment Risk early warning
CN113570278A (en) * 2021-08-09 2021-10-29 国网上海市电力公司 Power distribution network risk early warning method based on Markov process

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CN101800426A (en) * 2010-03-31 2010-08-11 河南电力试验研究院 Safety level evaluation method of power grid

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Cited By (2)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN106203799A (en) * 2016-07-01 2016-12-07 中国南方电网有限责任公司 A kind of method of equipment Risk early warning
CN113570278A (en) * 2021-08-09 2021-10-29 国网上海市电力公司 Power distribution network risk early warning method based on Markov process

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